A one-sided story
The pendulum set to determine the presence or otherwise of Sevco Rangers in next season’s Scottish Premier League, which earlier in the week appeared to be conclusively stuck on the “No” side of the clock, seems to have swung back at least partially in favour of the Ibrox club in the last 48 hours.
First of all Aberdeen chairman Stewart Milne refuted an apparent suggestion that the club were certain to vote No to Charles Green’s application for the old club’s SPL share, and now Motherwell have released a document painting a dire picture of the Fir Park side’s prospects without Rangers in the top division, going so far as to threaten the possibility of insolvency, in advance of the Well Society’s decision about their vote.
The document, compiled by the Motherwell board, does contain some balancing views (noting, for example, the possibility of a boycott by both home and away fans in the event of voting Yes, which would damage revenues in that scenario too), but seems tilted in favour of persuading the Society to accept Sevco Rangers’ application. And that’s odd, because of all the “Other 10” SPL members outside the Old Firm, Motherwell are the ones best placed to gain massively from the absence of Rangers – a fact the document surprisingly fails to explore.
The board predict a total loss to Motherwell of around £900,000 a season from the potential absence of Rangers, based on season 2011-12’s revenues which saw the club finish in 3rd place in the SPL. And the most obvious omission from the figures is the fact that without Rangers, Motherwell would instead have finished 2nd, thereby receiving an extra £965,000 from the SPL’s top-heavy prize-money structure.
Immediately, then, as a club challenging at the upper end of the table, Motherwell stand to make an immediate and obvious net gain from the absence of Rangers opening up the chance of a higher league finish. However, we do need to factor in the likelihood that with much of the SPL prize money coming courtesy of Sky, that £965,000 figure could be substantially lower in future.
But there’s much more to the finances of SPL clubs than simply place money. The rejection of Rangers would free up an extra European slot for the other teams in the division, and even lower-grade European football can be extremely lucrative. For example, a pretty modest run in the Europa League in 2008 brought Aberdeen roughly £3 million in extra revenue compared to the season before – a vast sum for any SPL side. (Motherwell’s turnover for an entire season is in the region of £4.5m.)
Even that hefty payday pales in comparison, however, with a Champions League spot, which Motherwell will hold in the coming season as a result of Rangers’ liquidation barring them from competing in the tournament. The premier European tournament represents a cash bonanza for any team that can win a single tie – simply reaching the play-off round before the group stages guarantees a club £1.7m in UEFA prize money, and that’s before TV revenues and gate receipts are taken into account.
Motherwell will join the tournament in the 3rd qualifying round, meaning they must negotiate just one two-legged match against another qualifier in order to pick up that reward. There’s a slim possibility of meeting a quality side, but their opponents are much more likely to be in the vein of Dynamo Potato from Zigizagistan*, and a club of any ambition whatsoever ought to have confidence in the plausible possibility of coming through such a challenge.
(*Pardon our casual racism. Actual clubs participating in last year’s 3rd qualifying round included such household names as Litex Lovech of Bulgaria, FC Ekranas of Lithuania, Shamrock Rovers of Ireland, FC Vaslui of Romania, Zestafoni of Georgia and BATE Borisov of Belarus. As supporters of Aberdeen with indelible memories of Skonto Riga we in no way dismiss such clubs as easy meat for SPL sides, but nor are they by any means insurmountable obstacles. EDIT: see comments.)
If Motherwell were able to win two knockout ties, though, they would hit a jackpot almost beyond fantasy. Reaching the group stages guarantees a further UEFA payout of at least £5.8m (making the running total £7.5m), again plus TV and gate receipts from three home games – perhaps another £1m to £2m. That’s a minimum, based on the assumption Motherwell lost all six group games – they’d make an extra £320,000 for any game they managed to draw, and £640,000 for any they won.
(Assuming they failed to qualify from the group stages, they could still be parachuted into the Europa League for finishing 3rd, which would provide the chance to additionally pull in a similar sum to that Aberdeen collected in 2008.)
The total potential value to Motherwell of a single season’s Champions League qualification, then, applying realistic projections to their chances of progress – that is, winning just two qualifying-round ties against distinctly mediocre opposition and then being thumped in the group stages – is in the region of £10 million. That’s more than a decade’s-worth of the projected losses from the absence of Rangers in the domestic game. Even a very modest achievement in the Europa League would be worth about four to five seasons of Rangers games.
(Which in itself assumes Motherwell get two home games against Rangers each season. In half of the seasons of the SPL the Fir Park outfit has failed to reach the top six, which risks losing 50% of their ties vs the Ibrox men.)
So the good people of the Well Society face a pretty straight choice: either admit Sevco Rangers to the SPL, wave goodbye to any realistic chance of participation in the Champions League and see their club die a slow, miserable death from falling crowds and the league’s inbuilt financial inequities (which are likely to be modified but not revolutionised by any conditions attached to the acceptance of Rangers), or dare to dream of a brighter future brought about by the dizzyingly lucrative sums generated from an extremely-achievable increased frequency of European qualification.
(Bearing in mind also, of course, that success breeds success – the sort of money provided by the Champions League enables a better playing squad and/or expanded stadium capacity, all the better to accommodate the larger crowds which would turn up to watch such a team.)
We hope that someone has the courtesy to at least supply them with both sides of the equation before they make their minds up.
A couple of clarifications.
Motherwell are in the “non-champions” pathway in the Champs League and their potential opponents are already known – Dynamo Kiev, Panathanikos, Fernebache (although there is a question mark on their participation), or FC Copenhagen. All are seeded well above Motherwell and dwarf their resources, even if none of them are top tier teams. The potential opponents for the playoff round are also known.
A great resource for the arcane world of Uefa competitions is http://kassiesa.home.xs4all.nl/bert/uefa/
Cheers for that info. But hey, if Aberdeen can hump FC Copenhagen 4-0 the season after they beat Man Utd and Celtic in the Champs League, the gulf in standards can’t be THAT great…
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2007%E2%80%9308_UEFA_Cup#Group_stage
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Uefa_champions_league_2006-07#Group_stage
Realistic chance of competing in the champions league?…
We’ve just achieved that with our qualifier to look forward to.
Anything else is pure fantasy.
If the gap isn’t that great between us and our potential Euro opponents then how big is the gap between us and Hibs? Most ‘Well fans still look at a top six finish as being the yardstick of a good season. A season of scrambling around the bottom half of a Rangerless SPL could have quite dramatic effect on Motherwell.
Its all academic anyway. The ‘Well society will unanimously deliver a no vote regardless and the clubs board would have been well aware that fact. They’re just letting the fans be in no doubt of the possible worst case scenarios.
“We’ve just achieved that with our qualifier to look forward to. Anything else is pure fantasy.”
If you honestly think you have no chance of progressing through a tie against, say, FC Copenhagen, then why would you even bother turning up? Get the hell out of the way and let someone else have a go. Of course there’s a chance. Two ties against decent but not world-beating opposition, to win 10 million quid. Of course it’s possible.
Ok. Maybe I was a bit too negative. Just providing a bit of balance to your blindly (you hadnt even researched our possible opponents) optimistic predictions of our CL campaign. You are right. It’s possible. The odds are heavily stacked against us.
Expecting the Motherwell board to budget for any kind of success in Europe given Scottish teams recent history in these tournaments is lunacy.
You are aware Copenhagen have been the champions of Denmark 8 times in the past decade too.
Whoever we draw it’s going to be David vs Goliath.
“You are aware Copenhagen have been the champions of Denmark 8 times in the past decade too. “
Including, presumably, the year before they got tanned 4-0 (going on 10-0) by Aberdeen.
Expecting the Motherwell board to budget for any kind of success in Europe given Scottish teams recent history in these tournaments is lunacy.
I expect them to budget for the £900,000 or so they should make from capacity crowds and gate receipts even if they get hammered in both European ties.
Yup. Includes that season. Also includes the previous season when the beat runaway SPL champions Celtic over 2 legs. Freak results happen. Maybe we’ll be lucky enough to get one. We’ll need 2 to win a tie though.
Litex Lovech?
Didn’t she sing “Lucky Number”?
Wouldn’t it be lovely if it was Aberdeen’s vote that kept the Forces of Darkness in the SPL?
PS Great photo!
First off, I’m a Dons fan.
If Aberdeen vote to let the newco in then a (very itchy) pox upon them.
They’ll deserve to go the same way as Rangers.
Same goes for any other SPL club that votes to allow them in.
TBH, Scottish football would be a lot healthier if most of the SPL teams died.
I wonder if there’s a connection between Willie Miller’s sacking and wee stewarty milne’s comments.
Miller was well known for hating Rangers…
As regards F.C Copenhagen;
I remember the game and really enjoyed it. The Dons played really well but I think something was up with the Copenhagen players that night.
I have not seen a “calculation” from any club which took account of the likelihood of INCREASED gate receipts in a more competitive league.
Reading all this esoteric fan-boy stuff makes me realise just how nominal my support for Motherwell actually is. Jings, you don’t half take it seriously!
I appreciate the sentiments of this article however the terms used “winning just two qualifying-round ties against distinctly mediocre opposition” are way off the mark. I can’t remember the last time we could afford to buy a player (I remember McGhee complaining that we couldn’t splash out 50 grand on someone, and things have got much tighter since then) whereas FC Copenhagen spent about 4 million last season alone. Our home gates average about 6000, theirs average 15000. We’ll be drawn against a comparative giant in this round.
I also wouldn’t say we are best placed to gain massively from Rangers demise. We might not realise it but Motherwell are going through a wee bit of a golden age just now. The threat of relegation is always looming so and with the reported 3rd lowest budget in the league we would never make the assumption that we have a right to challenge for 3rd place.
Regardless of all that, the fans will vote no. I can guarantee that. I can also guarantee that no matter who we draw, we will believe right up to the final whistle that we can do it.
“FC Copenhagen spent about 4 million last season alone. Our home gates average about 6000, theirs average 15000”
All of which was also true when Aberdeen pumped them 4-0 at Pittodrie. (Having, ironically, just been duffed up 0-3 in the SPL five days earlier by… Motherwell.)
I appreciate Ogilvie wants a quick answer for his beloved Gers and an end to discussions on EBT’s that the BBC rather inconveniently emphasised as including him, but it is clear by pushing for Gers to get a negligible punishment he is acting with a conflict of interest. The appointment of Mr Regan suggests he too should stand aside in what has the stench of a private boy’s club written all over it.
If
a/ The accounts are not settled, too much that cannot be told and the contents of which would banish Rangers to West of Scotland league divison 27,
b/ The court situation is not resolved/ignored again the facts cannot be told
c/ Green refuses to confirm funding and from whom other than paying a loan back from monies grabbed in the future. Like SDM, the funding is from others, banks and supporters mainly, but not himself.
d/ Players can legally leave as either Rangers exists or it does not; and if it does there are bills to pay. the no half pregnant scenario………
e/ FIFA/UEFA demands that monies are repaid to Rapid Vienna and Hearts or they are banned and players returned to clubs they came from….
f/ Green and his team have to pass a criteria to show they are good and proper people, and they will not even say who they are to test the said criteria
g/ Questions on the role of Duff and Phelps and whether they acted in the interests of creditors when involved from early on in an arrangement to earn millions of pounds whilst the creditors got nothing.
h/ Whether HMRC is suing individuals who did wrong, not just SDM and the board who clearly thought doing a “Jimmy Carr” was legally if not morally and ethically acceptable.
i/ Where did the Jelavic transfer money go, as banked just before the thing kicked off.
Without that money, assuming it plugged a few of the bigger holes, could it be proven Rangers have been trading insolvent. I suspect that would be easy to prove sadly.
Avoiding the questions let alone the answers means Rangers must be transparent on all matters to be allowed into the SFL FULL STOP. They will not be as they cannot afford to be as the evidence mounting up suggests they have too much hidden away and third parties will also be involved.
That includes Banstead, Souness payments after donkeys years and agreement to help HMRC recover monies paid through EBT’s should they choose to do so. Particularly Murray’s 7 million in loans/fees which he got back having promised to finance the club.
Perhaps a Daily Record journalist could look at this on behalf of those who have lost 150 million? Thought not.
That’s Aberdeen now officially come out with a solid NO, as well as Hearts, Hibs, Inverness and Dundee.
BOOM!