The End… OR IS IT?
Spain’s supposed threat to veto Scottish membership of the EU is like one of those serial killers on a student campus in a slash ‘n gore movie. No matter how many times the evil maniac is stabbed, hit over the head with bricks, shot 46 times through the lungs with a depleted-uranium blunderbuss, drowned in boiling acid or baked in a kiln with the pottery-class homework, he’s still stalking the heroine in the final scene.
Today the vampiric figure of a Spanish EU veto threat received yet another silver, garlic-coated stake through the heart. But we expect it to get up and walk again every other week until September 2014 regardless.
Speaking to the Spanish press on Tuesday, José Manuel García-Margallo, the Spanish foreign minister, confirmed what some of us have been shouting until we were blue in the face for months: Spain will not veto Scottish membership of the EU if Scottish independence is recognised by Westminster.
Since there’s no expectation (at least by anyone sane) that Westminster would refuse to accept the decision of the Scottish people in September, García-Margallo foresees no difficulties. Here’s what he said, as reported in La Vanguardia. (Click any of the quotes for a full Google Translate version of the article).
“España no trabaja sobre hipótesis. Lo que sí le digo es que sería determinante a la hora de decidir nuestro voto cuál fuese la actitud del Reino Unido.”
Repeating that the decision of the United Kingdom would be “key”, by way of elaboration he went on to speak about Kosovo, which Spain will not recognise as an independent state. The Serbian constitution prohibits Kosovan independence, and Serbia still refuses to recognise its former autonomous province as a state.
García-Margallo said that the crucial factor in Spain’s non-recognition of Kosovan independence was the attitude of Serbia, adding:
“Lo importante es que el derecho a decidir o cualquier otro derecho debe entenderse siempre en el marco de la Constitución y las leyes.”
That’s something our own No campaign ought to be well aware of, because the UK government signed up to the Edinburgh Agreement which binds each side to accept the result of September’s vote. The Agreement provides the legal and constitutional framework within which Scotland’s referendum is taking place. That means that if Scotland votes Yes then Westminster will accept and recognise the result.
What García-Margallo was saying was that if Westminster recognises Scottish independence Spain will too, and he even went on to say that he doesn’t believe the situation will arise. He also knows about the Edinburgh Agreement, and he knows that Scotland’s independence referendum is entirely constitutional.
It shouldn’t need to be pointed out that he’s said all this before. Unfortunately it does, because the No camp and Scottish media stick their fingers in their ears and shout “LA LA LA WE’RE NOT LISTENING!” every time it happens. So here we are.
Will this statement from the Spanish foreign minister be the one that finally puts to rest the endless claims that Spain might veto Scottish membership of the EU? We doubt it. Alistair Carmichael will probably argue that García-Margallo was simply too intimidated by the big scary bullies of the Yes campaign to say anything else, and so this Frankenstein’s monster of a scare story will lumber on for nine more acts.
But the next time some Unionist politician raises the non-question of a Spanish veto, the response ought to be to ask them whether Westminster intends to abide by the terms of the Edinburgh Agreement, or whether they intend to take a leaf out of General Franco’s playbook and send the tanks in.
Because the answer to the question “Will Spain veto Scottish membership of the EU?” is “Not if UK politicians are democrats.” It’s not Spain we need to worry about. It’s the Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems.
*A version of this article was originally published on Wee Ginger Dug.
We know the truth. They know the truth. The Spanish know the truth. They know we know the truth. Unfortunately, truth from the NO Fear Factory is about as rare as a sunny day during the Glasgow Fair Fortnight. They will continue punting this nonsense till the coos come home because it’s a stick to stir in some more uncertainty. And that, with the compliant MSM, is the only hope Project Feart has of winning this thing.
I share Paul Kavanagh’s frustration with the “undead” scare stories of Project fear. I seem to spend inordinate amounts of time and effort trying to think of new ways of debunking drivel that I have already debunked a dozen times and more.
What keeps me going is the thought that the purpose of all the endless repetition of the same inanities – on EU membership; on currency; on defence etc – is precisely to wear down my resolve and make me desist. I will not be used this way!
And I am encouraged by signs that the truth is beginning to filter through despite the efforts of the mainstream media. If I have to spend the next none months saying the same thing over and over in the hope that one person will hear me, then so be it.
The prize is worth all the frustration.
If I have to spend the next none months saying the same thing over and over in the hope that one person will hear me, then so be it.
It could be that most undecideds and weak No voters aren’t that interested or bothered about the EU issue, and likewise about sterling. There are plenty of people who want to know things won’t go wrong and that there’s some hope of a better life for them and their families – they want a reason to vote Yes, but convincing them that Scotland will stay in the EU and keep sterling isn’t it.
It could be that the No campaign is more than happy with activists on the Yes side spending all their time debunking these myths.
To slightly misquote an old Arab saying; “He who knows, but pretends that he knows not, is a fool, and probably a supporter of the NO Campaign. Ignore him!”
That’s a pretty lucid point Jason but we still need to keep debunking them and what ever else they can think up.
We will just have to keep rebutting the zombie lies. There is a saying in politics, that by the time you are heartily fed up repeating something, the public have only just started to listen.
Have to say I think that Serbia has a legitimate gripe about Kosovo, and that elsewhere in the world, Taiwan has always historically been part of China – not sure that Spain’s claim on Catalonia is in the same category as these examples though. And provided the UK sticks to our agreement, fair play to them for recognising Scotland’s right to self-determination. It is a greater courtesy than Ireland got.
I agree with Peter, the main prize will be worth the feelings of ‘oh feck, that one again’ and the ‘let me explain that in earth language’ type feelings we all get. The twpo topics most folk don’t know and don’t care about are the EU and currency. Easy topics for BT to arse about with and misinform folk. I feel the BT team are so used to twisting facts I fear for their mental state. I imagine a quiz night in their office would go like this. ‘Whose invasion of Poland led to UK’s entry into WW2′, “Hitler’ , “NO! it was Alex Salmond’s invasion, the facts bear that out” 🙂
I remember several lawyers on Twitter claiming the Edinburgh Agreement was nowhere near as important as the Scottish Government made out, being nothing more than a couple of sides of A4 rather than a full-blown legal document. But it seems to me that it could end up being one of the masterstrokes of the whole campaign. If it hadn’t been signed, we wouldn’t be able to state with such authority that as long as Scotland votes Yes, Westminster will go along with it.
I’m sure as both you know well, Jason and Keith, when shit gets thrown about some of it will stick. The problem with the no’s is there is so much of it and those who do not avail themselves of the information from this and other YES sites then some of it will not scrub off and continue to be spout ‘gospel!’ I don’t know the answer, particularly when the press and broadcasters are not impartial. All we can do is continue to debunk to those we can and hope they spectacularly slip up. Anybody want to sponsor a YES newspaper or tv channel
“I remember several lawyers on Twitter claiming the Edinburgh Agreement was nowhere near as important as the Scottish Government made out, ”
I’d like to see those shysters weasel out of an agreement signed by Cameron And Salmond in front of cameras,
I’m pretty certain Camoron (not a misspelling) signed the document to humour Salmond and the wee pretendy parliament in the beleif the Scots will bottle it, not the brightest bulb in the box is Camoron look at his (snigger) insistence of not allowing Alex a consolation prize of (snort) devo(guffaw) max bwahahahahahaha.
Have to say REV, your lead comments in the article gave me a good laugh. It is, as ever all very good.
One point is your last line “It’s not Spain we need to worry about. It’s the Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems.” The very crew who cheated us the last time, and in context of the article, they also counted “The DEAD !”
Yes, the Edinburgh Agreement, and its very public signing, were essential from the outset.
Neither side can walk away from this. Anyone getting too legalese about the Agreement will look bad in the public eye.
It doesnt matter how much we hear the same nonsense repeated. I think there is lots more to come from the Yes side as time goes on and i’m still very optimistic.
Lets face it there isnt much new the other side can come up with that has any merit or basis in fact that can be seen as a positive for them.
I’m pretty certain Camoron (not a misspelling) signed the document [Edinburgh Agreement] to humour Salmond
Na – it was to see the look on the face of labour MPs. Worked a treat too.
they wont look bad Murray they’ll be looking down the barrel of a legal challenge that will make the reparations demanded of Germany after the first world war look like chicken feed!
obviously, what’s going to happen is that Scotland will be chucked out of the EU, forced to join the Euro by Brussels but with monetary policy set by the foreign Bank of England. As part of its EU exit, Scotland will have no choice but to join the Schengen Area meaning mass, uncontrolled immigration. At the same time, tight border controls – due to Scotland being out of the EU – will cause major problems getting highly-skilled EU workers to come to help boost economic growth.
The pro-union case is very clear on this matter.
‘Peter A Bell’ , I could not agree with you more,the past week I have been debunking unionist drivel on the works forum nightly, and it is the same shite nightly. Its only the fact that I know more people are reading my info, than are contributing on the forum that sometimes keeps me going.
“The pro-union case is very clear on this matter.”
Will we still be allowed crisps wi the wee blue bag o salt in them?
we still need to keep debunking them and what ever else they can think up.
Just not everyone and all of the time.
Most of the scare stories are just the same things over and over again, and the points to debunk them are well known on the Yes side.
Everyone’s obviously frustrated at the media’s coverage and it’s easy to get sucked into the politics of it all – it can be fascinating watching it all happen, and taking part online can be an interesting new experience for most people. However, the benefit Wings and other sites should be to allow some of the annoyances about coverage to be put aside, and to educate activists and others.
There are people out there who want to be convinced. The woman in the audience on Question Time in Falkirk who asked Eddi Reader what had convinced her seemed to want to believe in Yes but she wasn’t interested in the EU, sterling or the democracy issue. (Sturgeon seemed to realise this, but it’s likely the woman went away no more likely to vote Yes after hearing more of the same stuff which didn’t engage her.)
Many, possibly most, of those who are persuadable to switch from No (possibly a more important bunch than the don’t knows) will be far more likely to so if they are excited about what voting Yes will bring.
There was at least one former ‘NO!’ who was eagerly awaiting their white paper this week with the full intention of reading the whole thing. That sort of engagement needs people to feel good, to feel excited.
Unfortunately I do think one of the key battles is the general acceptance of the £Sterling zone. If the BoE could start to mute this as mutually beneficial for rUK and workable then …
In fact, the more better together start to say that Scotland continuing with the Pound is not “real” independence, Scotland having to justify its budgets, etc then the more undecideds may think that that’s actually alright with them. At times of major change people want to see loads of checks and balances.
The Spanish interference can be ended very quickly and permanently.
When the Spanish government throw Scotland out of the EU then they will need to explain to their very large fishing industry THAT THEY HAVE JUST THROWN THEIR OWN FISHERMEN OUT OF BUSINESS. that Should quieten the Catalans down and solve all Spain’s problems. JOB DONE!
In fact, the more better together start to say that Scotland continuing with the Pound is not “real” independence
You mean it’ll be essentially Devo Max? Whew. I’m much less nervous now.
Will we still be allowed crisps wi the wee blue bag o salt in them ?
I heard Mags Curran says they’ll taste funny as they’ll be foreign.
link to facebook.com
I Think this poem by Dave Hill just about sums it up.
As you say, Paul, it is nothing that hasn’t been said before, but it is good to have the true Spanish position set out in such a clear manner.
No mention on the BBC yet
that is strange – where is Glen Cambell??
I still think that Rbutr would save a hell of a lot of aggro. http://www.rebutr.com But like any innovative idea it takes time for people to get it. Shame because it automatically shows when a story has been rebutted. You don’t have to do it twice and three times.
Andy
He is at the gym practicing tearing up the White Paper on live TV in the future.
Sorry but isn’t there a difference between recognising an independent state and allowing it to join the EU?
Wasn’t the Spanish foreign minister commenting on the former not the latter?
Did I miss something?
“Sorry but isn’t there a difference between recognising an independent state and allowing it to join the EU?
Wasn’t the Spanish foreign minister commenting on the former not the latter?
Did I miss something?”
Yes, you missed actually reading the original story.
“Spain’s position ahead of a possible entry of an independent Scotland in the European Union (EU) will depend critically on the attitude adopted by the UK, said today the Spanish Foreign Minister Jose Manuel Garcia-Margallo.”
Must be a relief for Westminster knowing that the ‘Kingdom of England, Wales and N. Ireland’ (or whatever name will be chosen) will be recognised by the Spaniards post independence, hence no problems with staying in the EU.
I see they’ve already been looking into the flag design for their new country.
link to bbc.co.uk
@Papadocx:
Perhaps more importantly, the Spanish government would have to explain to 2 of Spain’s largest companies, Iberdrola and Santander, why they have just put billions of Euros of Spanish investment at risk.
Iberdrola own Scottish Power: they have spent over 2 billion pounds on renewables in Scotland since 2010, and intend to spend more.
Santander’s chief executive Ana Botin told the Herald in May that the bank was planning to open more branches in Scotland.
I suspect the views of these companies will be of equal, if not greater concern to Spanish politicians than those of Galician fishermen.
O/T
Another online poll, but an interesting one. Asks you to vote by constituency. Asks you to vote each month. Also seems to have reasonable anti multi-voter protection. Try it.
link to scotlandsvote.com
I see our wonderful state broadcaster has changed a headline from :
Fitch states currency neutral under independence, to
Pound unstable after independence
Wonder why that might be?
Liars have to lie.
Offly topical but relevant to the subject of liars at wastemonster.
Record investment. Massive revenues. Not for viewers in Scotland!
Sir Malcolm Bruce:
I can give the House something to cheer about. Will the Prime Minister join me in welcoming the fact that investment in our North sea oil and gas industry this year will reach a record £14 billion, accounting for an unemployment rate in my constituency of just 0.7%, but is he aware of Sir Ian Wood’s report that says we need collaboration between Government and industry to unlock between £3 billion and £4 billion barrels of oil worth £200 billion that will otherwise be left under the sea?
The Prime Minister:
My right hon. Friend makes a very important point: the Wood report is an excellent report and we are looking to put that in place because we want to maximise the returns and the employment and the investment in the North sea. In recent months we have seen very encouraging signs of greater investment in the North sea, not least because of the decisions taken by the Chancellor to bring into play some of the more marginal fields. We need to keep up with that and implement the Wood report as my right hon. Friend says.
Heraldno more 8:27
That is after independence if we aren’t in the sterling zone, the £ will be in trouble. ( they won’t say NO)
we want to be in it because it lets us build up some credibility in the banking system, and allows us lower interest rates.
If iScotland was prevented from using the £ (as if), would we at least get a commission for the use of our monarch’s mug-shot, on the coins and notes?
Papad; I know that and you know that.
But it’s the headline that shouts, like Gardham’s farcical one earlier. The BBC’s neutral currency original was the right one; but now it’s unstable pound and indy in the same banner.
And browsers glanicng at the headlines will go away with what impression, do you think?
Believe me HMG have been working on amendments to the Scotland act for months. They will introduce them ASAP and they will be watertight, so no repeat of this episode, the jocks will be swindled out of their country – PERMANENTLY! Labour, liberals & Tories are all involved!
We will be subjected to all the control the the English unionist parties want to inflict on us. Wee Scotland and it’s people will have been sold by their ain folk for ermine and money. There will be no going back. TREACHERY! FFS WAKEN UP! It’s that serious.
Yes is the only answer.
Your Scare Du Jour for Thursday 19th December 2013
Currency Union again…..
link to bbc.co.uk
“As the intensification of the eurozone crisis showed in 2012, a monetary union without fiscal and banking union is unstable and the prospect of an exit from a monetary union could lead to high volatility and market turbulence, potentially detrimental to all members.”
As you’d expect the scary words ‘unstable’, ‘volatility’ and ‘turbulence’ are the ones Douglas Fraser has chosen to focus on (and it will come as no surprise to learn The Scotman’ article calls it a ‘Blow’ ;-))
But I think the important part is the highlighted bit the Unionist appear to be wilfully ignoring…..’the prospect of an exit’…..in other words having a currency union doesn’t cause the markets problems…..it’s the prospect of countries leaving them that does (see Greece and the Euro)
This is strange because when the First Minister was interviewed on Newsnicht by Gordon Brewer the day the White Paper was launched…..they discussed and he agreed on this very point…..that if the markets even suspected either party was about to leave there would be chaos.
So actually rather than rubbishing his claim or dealing it a blow they have validated the point he made in an interview 3 weeks ago.
As far as I understand it the Currency Union would involve a Central Bank setting the interest rate with either party free to do what they want (within limits) on the fiscal side by varying tax etc……
Funny thing is under the now mythical ‘Devo Max’ you would have a Central Bank setting the interest rate with either party free to do what they want (within limits) on the fiscal side by varying tax etc……
So if a Currency Union is unstable then surely so is ‘Devo Max’ for the very same reasons
@heraldnomore
The changes to that article can be seen here…
link to newssniffer.co.uk
Grant , you just beat me to posting thar newssniffer link. I’d noticed that the title had “evolved”.
One of the reasons that currency share will work is that the rUk and Scotland have very similar economies. Greece and Germany do not!!!!
In time, the rUK and Scotland will diverge as Scotland uses its surplus for the common weal and everybody gets better off. This will mean that at some point we will have to decide what to do going forward. But rest assured the decision will be taken in Scotland’s interests not the interests of London. I would imagine about the same time as the rUK is leaving the EU then perhaps that would be the best time to readdress the issue.
On Channel four news tonight, they were asking some Londoners what they thought about EU immigration from Romania and Bulgaria, and it was 100% against any immigration and the majority of those interviewed , going by there accents/ethnicity were 1st or 2nd generation immigrants themselves. They have been brain washed by the Daily Hail and co.
There is no way that London and by extension England will remain in the EU , after we leave the UK, they will withdraw further into their Londoncentric bubble and as more austerity piles on austerity grow more inwards thinking and protective of London (City) jobs. They will vote to leave the EU within 5 years of us leaving the UK. The City of London will then be free to continue being the money laundering capital of the world.
And we all live happily every after (Not if you live north of the Watford gap or west of Reading…)
Re my last post I only meant in England north of the Watford Gap!!!!
O/T
This video highlights why we must absolutely win this referendum.
Words cannot describe the contempt i have for this man and his ilk. I look forward to his unemployment.
@macdoc ^^^
Ian Davidson being a total arse, asking questions of Sec of state against Scot. Echo your comments, a nasty little man
I cannot imagine that anyone of intelligence would behave in the manner of either of those “gentlemen” Macdoc.
These two were voted for by the public – why? a rhetorical “why”!
There is that anecdote about monkey and red rosettes which springs to mind…
Dorothy
Not only did the good people of Govan/Pollok vote Ian Davidson in as their MP in 2010 GE, a year later they voted in Johan Lamont as their MSP. Explain how perfectly normal voters put these two (cant think of a word that describes them) into power.
Peter Bell wrote: “What keeps me going is the thought that the purpose of all the endless repetition of the same inanities – on EU membership; on currency; on defence etc – is precisely to wear down my resolve and make me desist. I will not be used this way!”
Must disagree here. They don’t care about Peter’s resolve nor that of the rest of us who frequent websites like this. We’re irrelevant. Their target is the low information voter (LIV) whom they are bent on imbuing with the notion that independence in to be feared and will mean Scotland out of the EU.
Given their control of the Fourth Estate and lack of any persuasive pro-Union narrative, for the independence-deniers this campaign is and always has been about quantity and amplitude – endless repetition rather than reason.
With respect to the fiction of Spanish intent to block Scotland’s entry as an independent state, all the LIV hears is:
SPAIN WILL VETO – SPAN WILL VETO – SPAIN WILL VETO – no they wont – SPAIN WILL VETO – SPAIN WILL VETO – SPAIN WILL VETO – uh, excuse me, they wont actually . . – SPAIN WILL VETO – SPAIN WILL VETO.
What message is more likely to get through to those paying scant attention?
The NO campaign would be long dead in the water were it not for the MSM propping it up. The threat to indy is the media and further steps need be taken to undermine the voters confidence in it. This and other websites do an invaluable service in that respect but it really does require the earnest engagement of the principals in the independence movement.
link to scotsman.com
They are setting up a committee to investigate something they stated as fact in the white paper??
Clueless Nationalists.
Bad end to the year for wee Johan McDOUGAL Lamont (that is her full name).
Labour losing ground to Conservatives in England.
Scottish Labour falling even further behind in Scotland.
The NO Campaign losing support.
YES Campaign gaining ground by the day.
They have negative policies.
Negative ideas for Scotland.
Is it surprising that the Scottish electorate are turning against them.
PROJECT FEAR is failing because they treated their fellow Scots like idiots.
The tyranny that is Westminster and its union henchmen, whether foreign or domestic, will deprive us of our liberty at their peril.
Clueless Stakker who doesn’t know the difference between the Parliament and the Executive ( i.e. SG)
caz-m – you missed off Graham.
Christian Wright 11:00pm
Like and totally agree with your thread. That is how I was taught at primary school along with everybody else of my age (67). It worked repetitive hammering away.
I especially like your LIV, explains a lot of things like how some of these carpetbaggers get elected time after time. The politicians have numbed most of the population into taking very little interest in politics and therefore can manipulate the (rotten system) for their own ends.
Here is the bottom line – the EU is falling over itself to include the Ukraine despite MASSIVE opposition within that country but us mugs are meant to believe they don’t want the Scots? Laughable. The Spanish will get in line when the Germans tell them to or they’ll be in bother (never mind the decimation of the Spanish fishing industry)
Marcia
did I miss a name out?.
Who is Graham?. That’s not one of Johann’s names, is it.
caz-m
– yes, her married name. I always call her Mrs Graham.
Mundell “proud” of opening a food bank, FFS
He should be ashamed that they are needed in an oil rich country
Words cannot describe the contempt i have for this man and his ilk. I look forward to his unemployment.
Agree. Does Westminster have a Drugs & Alcohol Policy for it’s attendees similar to most responsible company’s?
Egg on face for the UK ONS. Douglas Fraser tweets:
ONS having to issue revised experimental estimate of Scots GDP growth, after getting sums wrong. Admits Scotsgov data more reliable h/t FT.
Has anyone got a link to who said, or in which document, “Project Fear” was first mentioned. Just to track down the truth instead of having it trotted out that it is a name coined by the yes campaign
Davidson’s behaviour and Carmichael’s response signals that to them the game is up. A sort of last day at High School. Just hope that the media savvy here circulate the video clip far and wide.
Herald claims a ‘better together’ unknown person said it as a joke one day.
Can’t see anything else yet.
link to archive.is
That’s the first time I’ve ever watched Scottish Questions from Westminster and I want to puke. The stage managed questions from Labour were absolutely pathetic. Every single one an advert for BT. They do think the majority of voters zip up the back of the heed.
It makes me so FECKING angry.
Alan McIntosh
The Sunday Herald did a complete article on the PF name in their edition for 7 July 2013.
@Alan Mackintosh
Here you go: link to archive.is
Original: link to heraldscotland.com
Was article by Tom Gordon, is dated 22 June this year but was in Sunday Herald of 23rd.
“Privately, some inside Better Together even refer to the organisation as Project Fear. McDougall is unrepentant about the tactics.”
Alan
A sentence copied from Better Together wiki page.
On 23 June 2013, in an article marking the campaign’s first anniversary, the Sunday Herald claimed that “Privately, some inside Better Together even refer to the organisation as “Project Fear”.
The best I could come up with is,
“Privately, some inside Better Together even refer to the organisation as Project Fear. McDougall is unrepentant about the tactics.”
link to tinyurl.com
Alistair Carmichael, Davidson, Westminster, MSM Treat Scotland and the Scots with utter contempt. They are misleading us gently so as not to frighten the horses, all they are working for is a NO vote then the gloves will come off. Scotland will get its come up-pence.
It is embarrassing watching this bunch of never will be’s supposedly representing people who actually voted for these morons, God help us!
THIS IS OUR FIRST AND LAST CHANCE TO GET OUT OF THIS MAD HOUSE! YES!
Tomorrow’s Herald headline looks good. Don’t know the figures. Can anyone help?
Herald Poll – Yes 27, up from 23 in September, No 41, from 44.
What is the purpose of Scottish MP’s. I think that moron Davidson summed them up, over indulge at lunchtime, you go out and debate bullshit for a couple of hours, then your free till next week. It’s a pointless waist of tax payers money.
And what’s that Scottish Affairs Select Committee all about. They get even more money for being a member of that. FFS
Think of the satisfaction that we will feel when this crowd of parasites are finally given the boot with the simple act of voting YES.
Certain to vote in the Herald poll: Yes 30, from 28. No 45, from 50
a pic of the Herald front page
link to twitter.com
And MP’s have just given themselves an 11% pay rise.
They really do take us for mugs.
Cheers guys. No slip sliding away. YES!
Marcia
All unionist leaning polls are starting to show YES moving up and NO on the slide.
Stick that in yer pipe and smoke it Mrs Graham. (Johann Lamont)
Re: the Glasgow Herald poll, the shift doesn’t surprise me. I work in a large office in the centre of Glasgow and there are now very few “No Scotland” voters there. i would like to take the credit for converting the members of my team who were planning on voting “No Scotland”, but it was too easy to convert them. Most of them hadn’t seriously thought about the referendum before I brought it up in conversation and they were only voting “No Scotland” as it was their default option.
ot
link to independent.co.uk
Yes, it’s an almost identical rerun of February 2012, and Spain’s attitude is consistent with its earlier one. It’s also consistent with Kosove as their take on that was that Kosovo was unilateral, not by agreement – same as their view that Catalonia would be unilateral as it’s against Spain’s Consitution. I don;t think they see Scottish Independence as any threat at all, as it’s different – it’s by agreement with the UK Gov.
WOW! a 7% swing in the polls.
Now we can see why the BT campaign is getting so desperate.
So everyone…Please lets all stop getting so down about the MSM’s bias and misinformation.
As all the polls are showing that the good people of Scotland are getting the truth from somewhere and are making decisions based on this truth.
‘You shall know the truth, and the truth will set you free’ 🙂
Marcia says
“He is at the gym practicing tearing up the White Paper on live TV in the future.”
that’ll be about three pages at a time then ?
Kininvie says@ 8.27pm
Ive never seen this site in my life and when I put my post code and email address in and voted it said I had already voted this month.
Madoc says @10.09pm
What baffles me is HOW do people vote for pond life like this creature? are they so unaware of how he is disparaging the very people who voted for him?
Alan Macintosh says
“Has anyone got a link to who said, or in which document”
All you’ve got to do is refer to Alan Cochrane who himself acknowledged the name came from Better Together.
Nice poll. No continues to fall.
The Yes is not 27%. It’s mid to upper 30’s and rising back to ~4/10 historical parity. People are just a little reticent when the pollster rep is sitting in their living room. As talked about before, this is why just over 5/10 SNP voters say they plan to vote Yes when TNS ask them face to face but ~7/10 say yes when they’re filling out a poll privately on their laptop for ICM or Panelbase.
If you adjust TNS to give historically average DK levels (which really don’t vary much apart from when they swing to Yes as per e.g. 2011) then it’s 38Y / 41 N / 21 DK.
@Scottish_skier
Keep up the good work SS.
In your opinion, what poll is the fairest, non-bullshit, no messing about poll that we can look at as a true picture of the voting intentions for Scottish Independence.
And why would we take that particular company’s figures over some of the others.
the answer to the question “Will Spain veto Scottish membership of the EU?” is “Not if UK politicians are democrats.”
Oh dear – that will be a ‘yes’ then. If UK politicians were democrats none of us would be here.
Spain has a real axe to grind here. Thatcher gave them fishing rights in Scottish waters in return for her ‘rebate’ on UK contributions to the EU. They’ll be aware that an independent Scottish government might want to recover the right to fish its own territorial waters. That would give Madrid trouble in Galicia as well as Catalonia.
There’s also the matter of Gibraltar – rUK could do some sort of deal there, on the understanding that the grateful Spanish would then suddenly discover an objection to Scottish membership of the EU.
People on the nationalist side set much store by the idea that it would not be sensible for rUK to be spiteful towards an independent Scotland. Of course it wouldn’t, but I haven’t noticed many signs of sense in their behaviour over the past couple of centuries.
Re herald front page. Even when they headline the shift to yes,the fear factor kicks in in the first paragraph about Fitch ratings. Nothing to do with the Shift to yes. An obvious u-kok plant. I wonder whether they are being paid by the paragraph To print that stuff? At least the Hootsmon had the decency to give u-kok their full money’s worth. Any plans for crowd funding to buy the Scotsman?
In your opinion, what poll is the fairest, non-bullshit, no messing about poll that we can look at as a true picture of the voting intentions for Scottish Independence.
None of them. In isolation anyway. They all have their caveats and some have major problems.
Most reliable: Panelbase, TNS for No
Look in line but lack of many historical polls to reference: Angus Reid, ICM
Most out due to methodology: MORI / Yougov, TNS for Yes
Complete bollocks = Scottish Progressive Opinion (Daily Mail)
But for all the same issue applies; straight Y/N polls reflect what people are saying, not thinking. You can’t tell if someone is really quite soft no or saying N / DK when they are really planning Yes just from raw Y/N/DK numbers. That requires more digging. Trends are what is important right now and they are all showing the same thing: No falling and Yes rising.
Wonder if we’ll get our joint statement tomorrow.
Rather quiet on this front. Which means that if we are to get one, it’s likely to be a bombshell and very bad for No.
link to bbc.co.uk
I’m boycotting Spain for my holidays this year.
OT: London draining life out of rest of country – Cable link to bbc.co.uk Yes Mr Cable and I hope next year to end this with a yes vote.
OT: I got a YouGov mini questionnaire yesterday & one question
ran along the lines of ‘Alex Salmond has the power to implement
childcare policies immediately do you think he should do so?’
Tried to save the screen but I seem to have failed.
Totally loaded questions which I commented on at the end.
Anyone else get this?
I fired in a complaint about Fraser’s Scare Du Jour article. These people have to know we have them sussed.
Very off topic but saw this on NNS
O/T Labour / Tory Stirling Council further cutting back on Bannockburn event next year to pay for the Armed Forces Day.
link to archive.is
On reading that line “the attitude of the United Kingdom would be the determining factor” … how long before we get the scare story “Rest of United Kingdom could veto Scotlands entry to the EU!”
Just watched the Davidson rant but can’t work out what he’s saying.
Anyone know what the last word is?
Would there be a transcript in the Westminster records?
I take it that the sharp witted ‘bayonet’ was taking the piss out of the SNP questioner from PMQ the other day?
o/t MPs were laughing at stories of food poverty!
link to independent.co.uk
Sickening.
Spain and Westminster want Catalonia and Scotland in the EU. It cause more trouble than it solves to have Catalonia and Scotland out of the EU for both Spain and Westminster.
Catalonia and Scotland’s cause/case for Independence are quite difference. Catalonia is a part of Spain with fiscal? autonomy. A different history. Franco – the Spanish Civil war. Spain has only been a monarchy/democracy since 1975 and the death of Franco.
Scotland is a country which supposed to be in an equal Union, with a separate Legal/Education system.
The rest of the debate in the commons can be found here:
link to theyworkforyou.com
Interesting reading
scottish_skier said: Wonder if we’ll get our joint statement tomorrow.
Rather quiet on this front. Which means that if we are to get one, it’s likely to be a bombshell and very bad for No.
Looking forward to this one. What with the white paper (no coherent response from BT), clear movement in the polls (yet more panic at BT HQ) and now this (BT potentially kebabed), things are getting really interesting…
I can’t see any announcement tomorrow – they’ll just point to the papers produced by the UK government over the past few months as their stance. Any objection from YES or the electoral commission will be buried or ignored by the media….
Don’t hope for it – it’s not coming.
Ian Davidson and the Unionists are campaigning against Scotland. Some of their comments are a disgrace. Carmichael being totally embarrassed. What’s new.
@Krackerman – I thought it was meant to be a ‘joint’ statement between SG and WG, which the discussion papers clearly are not.
What joint statement? I only recall a request by the EC that both sides present thier cases in full by the (21st??) to allow the voters to have a full understanding of the implications of a YES or NO vote?
What’s the Joint statement then?
@ Richard
Pissed he may have been but I certainly don’t think he was extracting it!
Would like to have seen the results of a breathalyser test.
@Krackerman
John McCormick seems to think there’ll be one:
link to bbc.co.uk
@Bloodnok – ok, haven’t seen that. But not to rain on anyone’s hopes but he’s just optimistic about a joint statement by the 20th… which is tomorrow so not much time.
I think he’s being a little naïve, perhaps despite working for the EC he’s yet to understand that there is no actual democracy in the UK.
Just received a batch of newly released Yes leaflets. Eye-catching front and headline:
An independent Scotland would be the most powerful nation in Europe. – (power meaning generated power).
Here’s Carmichael letting the cat out of the bag about the idea of a No vote leading to more powers:
link to theyworkforyou.com
Iain Stewart (one of those I’m-Scottish-and-Tory-so-I-need-an-English-constituency types): “Does my right hon. Friend agree that the Scotland Act 2012 transferred substantial tax-raising powers to Holyrood, and that these complex changes should be allowed to bed in before we start making any further radical changes?“
Alistair Carmichael: “Not only do I agree with my hon. Friend on that point, but I believe that the energies of the Scottish Government would be much better served if they were devoted to dealing with the implementation of those highly complex tax changes, which are due to come on stream in 2016, rather than running around and setting up scare stories of that sort.”
An interesting story about Fitch and Latvia, which runs counter to what the ratings agency has been saying about an iScotland in a currency union with rUK.
link to reuters.com
July 2013
Fitch on Tuesday upgraded Latvia further into investment-grade status, citing the country’s invitation to join the euro zone in the coming year.
The agency raised Latvia to BBB-plus from BBB. The outlook is stable.
“Euro adoption will enhance economic policy coherence and credibility compared with the current exchange rate peg to the euro,” Fitch said in a statement.
“The Latvian economy is closely integrated with the EU through trade, investment and substantial ownership of its financial sector by Nordic parent banks.”
Latvia is ready to become the 18th country using the euro from the start of next year, the European Commission announced last month.
Standard & Poor’s rates the country BBB-plus with a stable outlook. Moody’s rates Latvia Baa2 with a positive outlook.
Geoff Huijer at 8.57
Me too – don’t know why I bother, stopped counting how many times they refer to generic “country”, “NHS”, “government” etc. – at least I’m consistent in my comments but over the years YG have never contacted me or altered their questionnaire integrity. Their obstinacy/manipulation of ‘Have you stopped beating your wife’ in relation to their style is so blatant it has to be deliberate bias.
O/T Rev, sorry. But more weasel words from our master.
Ref NNS article on Barnett formula and response to AS letter to DC. David Cameron is quoted
“What I can say is that reform of the Barnett formula is not on the horizon”
Since when is “reform” a synonym for “abolition”?
Here is the Latvian government’s response to Fitch’s announcement on joining the Eurozone.
link to fm.gov.lv
…. as soon as Latvia receives an acceptance for the introduction of the euro, credit rating will be upgraded. This is very significant evaluation for the country what is attributable to the development of national economy and country’s reputation in the eyes of foreign investors. Upgrade of credit rating is also an international proof that we can still show ourselves as a country directed towards development and competitiveness,” indicates the Latvian Minister for Finance Andris Vilks.
Fitch considers that Latvia joining the Eurozone as a sign of stability, but iScotland joining a currency union with rUK as “unstable”.
It all seems a bit odd.
alexicon,
Save your money till November 2014 and you can have a great holiday in Catalunya.
O/T
link to archive.is
Any comments?
“Not on the horizon”. Just as the horizon is changing constantly as the Earth spins and so Cameron at some future time when challenged over abolishing the Barnet Formula will have his clever little phrase to hand, “Ah but what I said was at the time I didn’t…”.
Just watched the Davidson rant but can’t work out what he’s saying.Anyone know what the last word is?Would there be a transcript in the Westminster records?
It sounded like “Bat Mitzvah” meaning the age of responsibility in the Hebrew I think.
Eco_Exile
link to archive.is
I hope the basic errors made by the ONS are made clear to people when the ONS publish their corrected figures. The comparison to more reliable Scottish Government statistics seems to have highlighted the error. We should have a system whereby the SG check ONS data before they are allowed to release it.
Also, isn’t it funny the constant reference to “Edinburgh Government”. Is this some break away city state or something?
From the Electoral Commission in September:
… We therefore recommended that the Scottish and UK Governments clarify what process would follow the referendum in sufficient detail so as to inform people what would happen if most voters voted ‘Yes’ or if most voters voted ‘No’. To avoid confusion we asked the Governments to agree a joint statement if possible. If a joint position could be agreed we undertook to consider its inclusion in our information booklet to be circulated to households as part of our public awareness campaign in the run up to the referendum.
26.We are aware that discussions between both Governments are taking place on this matter and there are signs that progress towards the development of a joint position is being made. We welcome this progress and have asked that the joint position is agreed by 20th December. This coincides with the expected Royal Assent to the Referendum Bill and the subsequent opening of the register of permitted participants for campaigners at the referendum.
[Presumably it’s quite possible even if the governments have agreed something it might not be released immediately.]
I wonder if it’s possible to get an email address for the Spanish Consulate in Edinburgh or the Embassy in London so I can tell them that I will stop holidaying in Spain until they stop interfering in the future of Scotland.
@Bill McLean
Ask them for the fish back as well.
Today’s Herald headline “Poll shows YES campaign is closing the gap in race for votes” with NO leading by 14% down from 19% in September with ‘Don’t knows figure at 33%. (No- 41%, YES – 27% D.K’s 33%) However, the accompanying coloured graph on P2 gives the YES figure as 33% and D.K’s at 27% – a slight difference! I have not had time to check the actual poll figures from TNS-BMRB. Perhaps the Herald could explain?
The good folks at the The Herald don’t have to explain anything, they’re journalists, like the BBC 🙂
Eco-exile @ 10.57
So the ONS has been caught with trousers down and flagged up by The Times no less – but the more important input is from our old friend, John McLaren from the ‘Regions’ as he rubbishes the total ONS report to minimise the damage for his No side.
‘…John McLaren of the Centre for Public Policy for Regions said he welcomed efforts by the ONS to produce more detailed regional data but questioned why the experimental data had not been more carefully checked. He said there were some “very odd” features in the data – such as unfeasibly sharp falls in education and manufacturing activity – that meant its suggestion that overall Scottish growth had been overstated should be treated with great caution.’
Every pro-union position has to be a winner! And what a fool he’s making himself out to be, by doing it just so.
So apart from the Spanish foreign minister’s statement above on the non-vetoing of an independent Scotland’s EU membership by Spain, and
the continuing refusal of the Spanish prime minister to explictly state that he would veto membership: link to goo.gl on Newsnet, and
the pronouncment of the UK’s former EU judge, Sir David Edward: link to goo.gl, and speaking here on YouTube link to goo.gl, and
the report by Graham Avery to the Foreign Affairs Select Committee (def worth a read btw): link to goo.gl
all the informed opinion in the MSM is that Scotland is sure to be ejected from the EU come next September. Aye right.
Even Hermann von Rompuy’s recent statement that If a part of the territory of a member state ceases to be a part of that state because that territory becomes a new independent state, the treaties will no longer apply to that territory is pure diplomatic speak. Given that we can’t be ejected in September as we’ll still be part of the UK, what do people think we’ll be doing in the 18 months between the referendum and independence day? Oh hang on, that’s right, negotiating with the EU our terms of continued membership.
Jeez, they really do believe that nobody ever questions their childish interpretations and assertions about what’s going to befall us next year.
Major Sir! I will certainly be reminding them of their luck at being allowed to fish in Scottish waters as a member of the EU. If of course their politicians continue to hint that we will not be members I will have to remind them that they will not be allowed to fish in our territorial waters. Power crazy – that’s me. Wasn’t First Minister Salmond brilliant again today at FMQs – what a First Prime Minister of an Independent Scotland he will make. Followed of course by Nicola! Watch it Spain! Still nothing on an email ads for the Consulate or Embassy – will have to do some digging!
The Spanish consulate website notes that it will not print anything to do with Spanish foreign policy – posted anyway but it make have to be a letter!