What We Don’t Know Now
One of the very few phrases universally recognised in Scotland but which will draw blank looks anywhere else in the UK is the dry, dark “Well, ye ken noo”. Until recently it had no equivalent that we can bring to mind in the rest of the English-speaking world, although arguably that gap has now been at least partly filled by the acronym “FAFO”.
(We try not to swear on the site, so let’s say it stands for “Fool Around, Find Out”.)
So now the smoke has cleared, the troops have departed the battlefield and the winner is enjoying the spoils, what did we find out on Thursday night, and what didn’t we?
Let’s assess the scene.
WHAT WE DO KNOW
(1) We know that Labour is still able to assemble a half-decent ground operation in its heartlands. The party threw pretty much everything it had at knocking people’s doors in Hamilton, and to some extent it paid off.
We say “to some extent” because even with a colossal and expensive effort it still only managed to get out two thirds of the vote it recorded in its 2021 gubbing.
As with pretty much every Scottish Labour “success” of the last decade, victory wasn’t built on winning hearts, minds and votes but on losing fewer than the SNP did. Labour suffered a decrease in both absolute numbers and vote share compared to its losing position in 2021, but serial disaster Katy Loudon once again crashed the SNP vote so hard that it was still enough to take the seat, which takes us to point 2.
(2) We know that Katy Loudon is a terrible candidate. In nearby Rutherglen in 2023, she turned an SNP vote of 24,000 into 8,000 – a loss of 65% – so her performance on Thursday night, where she only binned 53% of the SNP’s vote, was a comparative triumph. Although since Labour were on the crest of a wave in 2023 and are now about as popular as leprosy at a juggling convention, a valid argument could be made that it was actually even worse.
(She contested Rutherglen again in the 2024 general election and failed to make a dent in Labour’s majority. Will she get a fourth chance? And if so, whose niece is she?)
(3) We know that nothing’s going to change for the people of Hamilton. It’s all very well saying that the attacks on Davy Russell were classist snobbery and being dreadful at public speaking doesn’t make him a bad person – which of course it doesn’t – but unfortunately public speaking is pretty much a opposition MSP’s job description and Russell won’t be able to hide as effectively at Holyrood as he did from hustings and interviews during the by-election.
The kindest thing that can be said in that regard is that the Parliament could certainly do with some more working-class people in it as a general principle rather than the dire, vapid young careerist drones of (particularly) the SNP, and that Labour are such an irrelevance in the chamber anyway he’s also unlikely to make anything any worse.
(4) We know that Labour, the SNP and the brainless Scottish media between them contrived to make Reform appear to be a serious and credible force in Scottish politics.
Their vote share in a seat where they had no local operation, very few resources to deploy (either in financial, data or manpower terms) and where the opposition and media had mounted a non-stop attack on their supposedly racist campaign ad about Anas Sarwar, significantly outperformed their national polling – the best they’ve done for the Holyrood constituency vote to date is 19% but they got 26% in Hamilton. So either Hamilton is full of racists, or nobody was buying the whipped-up indignation.
(Or, indeed, they voted Reform as a result of feeling gaslit and insulted by it.)
All of that can only help to increase their momentum, and perhaps make Tory voters even more likely to vote tactically for them. Nobody ever came away from 3rd place in a by-election happier than Nigel Farage did on Thursday night.
WHAT WE DON’T KNOW
(1) We don’t know any more about the forthcoming Holyrood election than we did on Wednesday. The tactics that won Hamilton for Labour – flooding it with resources, a popular local figure and a Jonah of an opponent – cannot be replicated at a national level across 73 seats, and extrapolating a uniform national swing from it is a fun exercise for politics nerds but a fool’s errand as a serious projection.
Labour’s current constituency polling is 19%, and no amount of jiggery-pokery can turn that into a significant number of FPTP seats. Its regional vote is even lower, at 18%.
If Reform were to pick up 26% nationally that would bounce them from the territory of getting three list seats per region up to four, giving them as many as 32 MSPs and making them the main opposition party, but that would only be a rearrangement of the Unionist grouping and make little difference to whether there was a pro-indy majority or not, since only the deranged believe that the SNP are going to pick up any list seats on current polling.
(The above tweet is so batshit mental we might do a separate piece on it. Wow.)
(2) We don’t know, and find it very hard to imagine, what the SNP can do to turn their holed and rusting ship around. Hilariously, “an SNP source” suggested in the aftermath of the result that it was time for the party to “hit the independence button”.
One of the two main problems with that – the other being that independence is low on voters’ lists of priorities at the moment – is that indy supporters know that the SNP’s “independence button” isn’t actually connected to anything.
The party, as this site has extensively and comprehensively documented in recent years, simply has no credible policy on the matter, and some of its more honest figures openly admit as much.
Voters clearly know it too, because barely over half of independence supporters (just 29% in Hamilton vs 54% Yes support in the most recent poll) now back the SNP, yet they also show no inclination to switch to other indy parties – Alba didn’t even bother standing in Hamilton, even though they desperately need the exposure.
What that suggests is that half of Scots still want independence but can see no current political route to actually achieving it, and unless someone steps up and adopts some radical new thinking on the matter, we cannot fault that assessment.
(3) And finally, we don’t know how Scottish politics can hope to drag itself out of the awful stagnant stasis that looks set to continue for at least the next half-decade. Our prediction remains what it’s been for a long time: the SNP will be the biggest party in 2026, but – regardless of current polling, with the election still a year off – will not achieve a “pro-indy” majority, and even if they did it would make zero difference to the prospects of independence.
Reform will most likely continue to strengthen, mostly to the detriment of the Tories and Labour but could also pick up a bunch of the 38% of SNP supporters who voted for Brexit. But none of the mainstream parties will be willing to work with them, so the most plausible practical arrangement will be some sort of deal – whether a formal coalition or a more low-key understanding such as the SNP formed with the Tories in 2007 – with Labour, as we told you exactly two years ago tomorrow.
In that scenario it doesn’t matter whether Reform come second or third – it’d still be highly likely that the SNP and Labour would be able to command more than 64 votes between them (and would probably be able to add the Greens or Lib Dems on a vote-by-vote basis), so Farage’s party would be frozen out.
(Sir John Curtice’s calculation from a uniform national swing based on the Hamilton result would give such a combination 66 MSPs, whereas an SNP-Green teamup would fall well short on 58. Although as we already noted, a uniform national swing is an abstract fantasy for political anoraks, and those numbers are likely to quite seriously underestimate the Lib Dems, who were never going to make an impact in Hamilton but are currently riding well above the waterline on the list vote and ought to be reasonably confident in expecting double figures.)
And since Labour and the SNP don’t have any meaningful policy differences other than independence, and since the SNP have already given up on independence, what that amounts to is a great big fat binload of “as you were”.
(John Swinney’s letter to SNP members after the by-election, readers may not be too astonished to hear, made only the most fleeting of single mentions of independence. It’s very easy to miss, so we’ve highlighted it for you. Our most favourite line, though, is when it describes losing a seat that the SNP have held since it was created 14 years ago as having “made progress”.)
So if you weren’t sure whether to be depressed before, well, ye ken noo.
Don’t forget the Larkhall factor which would have bolstered Reform
Larkhall was part of the constituency for the 14 years the SNP have held it.
If you ask me, Farage would be happy to be rid of Scotland. So I don’t really understand why an area with many British Unionists would vote for an English nationalist party. Those unionists voting for Reform better be careful what they wish for.
Still no mention of vast majority of Independence voters of which there must be about 1000000, and there 2nd vote going to Alba, ISP or I for I.
Also what if Liberate win a 1st past ghe post seat or two. I reckon as likely as Labour Reform gaining seats.
Agee with all of the above Stu. If Scotland wants a different future folk must work in reality not fantasy politics.
A logical, fair assessment. Fairer than I would be to the SNPs controlling clique.
With support for Independence above 50% and SNP support around the 30% mark it is hard to explain why the SNP leadership have abandoned Independence and now perform the role akin to Westminster’s Scottish administrators. Incompetence and lack of ability? They are certainly that and worse. The Alec Salmond affair should have seen the entire SNP leadership and their parasites out of office. It didn’t though and they are still there and there is no obvious way for the members to remove a leader now. Can the MSPs do it? They can but they would not have passed leadership controlled vetting if they weren’t going to tow the Sturgeon line. Vote them out and we get in people who will have even more contempt for the punters than the SNP elite.
In England the political class have the power and are frighteningly detached from the general population. Ireland and near every country in Europe is the same. The people who are seeking to get on the ‘gravy bus’ are mainly fuckin wretched excuses for members of society.
In Scotland there are good numbers of decent citizens, able people who are involved in community projects and pro Independence initiatives, people who think in terms of US rather than me, me , me. That is still more reflective of society as a whole and those active people outnumber the paid political class in Scotland so it is not ‘ach fuck it’ time yet but it is not looking good, anywhere. In the meantime massive damage is being done to us.
Since the running average of polls shows that support for Indy ISN’T above 50%;
And since the voters repeatedly vote 2-1 for Unionist parties;
And since the self-proclaimed “true” Indy movements/parties (Alba, ISP, Liberation–a new movement is launched every week) get nowhere (1%) in the polls; then
Maybe the SNP’s decision to downplay Indy makes sense, at least from their point of view.
The SNP doesn’t deserve anyone’s vote–yet 30% of the people still vote for them. And if voters haven’t changed their minds yet, after all the SNP has done to misgovern, I see no prospect of that happening in the future.
50% must however keep you awake at night in a cold sweat.
Intrude in your dreams does it?
I think by now we all know independence support and the SNP are no longer the same thing whatsoever anymore and that fledging parties are, well fledgling..
50%
Hardly a ringing endorsement of the Union eh?
Sweet dreams.
“50% must however keep you awake at night in a cold sweat”
I guess that could be true, but only if you want to admit it keeps you awake at night with a permanent stiffie.
How are your dreams? Sweet?
Don’t be shy. We’re all wanting to know
I kent before
The First Minister in an interview reported in The Sunday National today said:
“My challenge is to make sure that we can turn that aspiration in the public for Scottish independence into a real political action to make sure it happens.
And that comes about by the SNP performing much better, of getting into a commanding position in Scottish politics, and making sure that we can deliver on the expectations and aspirations of the people of Scotland.”
Notice how he he twists and conflates “real political action” will only occur with “the SNP performing much better” and “getting into a commanding position in Scottish politics” but avoids defining what “real political action” actually refers to.
So just more of the same from the Vote Swindler.
Swinney talks in abstract terms: “And that comes about by the SNP performing much better, of getting into a commanding position in Scottish politics ….” Um, note to the FM: SNP are arguably in a commanding position in Scottish politics, in as much as they have 61 MSPs, the largest single party; you are the party leader, so ‘the SNP performing much better’ is all down to you, sunshine. Feckin’ eejit.
Yep.
The SNP have been in a “commanding position” since May 2015 – Swinney is hoping that the dumb electorate he sneers at haven’t noticed.
It could start with him holding a leadership election & the SNP already has/had a current commanding position, still live from 2021 mandate, but being squandered the same way Sturgeon squandered hers by choosing to sit on it while fecking about with mundane shit they weren’t elected on.
SNP needs to go, they’re only poisoning the well. Turning indy into another Brexshit where everyone is sick to death of it. They need to get out the way. They’ve had plenty of opportunities & squandered every single one – not even bagging a bit of devo along the way. They stand for nothing but time wasting. Another five yrs of bullshit like pardoning witches & making sun screen in Scotland mandatory is all they have to offer . I’d rather vote the janitor of Holyrood than that shower of shysters.
Well said Geri!
What the politico monkeys based in their city offices just don’t get is that having given them the mandate of support in a Labour heartland, the SNP, after the North Lanarkshire SNP deviancy backstabbing fiasco is now commonly seen as a flawed beyond redemption “instrument” across the whole and adjoining areas/ Rutherglen, Hamilton anyone?
Heck, if even I can work that out then why can’t ivory towers bubble land city based SNP grasp it?
They’ve blown it.
Seventh level of hell as far as I’m concerned until someone serious about independence comes along and gives the tree a right good shake..
They won’t get out the way, so we need to try and vote them into obscurity. The SNP is run like a mafia/cartel, and I can only assume that their existing party membership have a bizarre form of stockholm syndrome. It’s hard to reason with people who are blinded by the irrational bonds they have formed with their ‘captors/abusers’.
The membership are every bit as damaging, if not more so due to their numbers, to the Indy movement as the SNP themselves.
I’d rather vote for the Jannie too.
“My challenge is to make sure that we can turn that aspiration in the public for Scottish independence into a real political action to make sure it happens. And that comes about by the SNP performing much better, of getting into a commanding position in Scottish politics, and making sure that we can deliver on the expectations and aspirations of the people of Scotland.”
Obviously the Scum Nonce Party loyalist members of the CULT refuse to comprehend or interpret the FACT that THEIR party under the various QUISLING leaderships have been in a COMMANDING position in Scottish politics over the last 11 YEARS but they have wantonly and deliberately sabotaged every effort of the INDEPENDENCE MOVEMENT to achieve that goal It is inconceivable that anyone who has any interest in Scottish independence would NOT see swinney’s words as an egregious insult to their intelligence , the snp under sturgeon ,useless and swinney were given NUMEROUS mandates and overwhelming support from the ELECTORATE to push forward towards independence , BUT their concerns and actions were NOT about the drive for independence to ensure our children , oap’s and families were better served and protected from the despicable actions of a WM government , they were more concentrated and concerned in introducing legislation like the HCB to prosecute and silence any and ALL criticism about their REVILED and vehemently opposed GRB, And as for the snp performing better at governance, sturgeon , useless and swinney have actually surpassed the gross incompetence and corruption of the despicable scum infesting WM
“HCB to prosecute and silence any and ALL criticism about their REVILED and vehemently opposed GRB”
Did that actually work though? Was any and ALL criticism actually silenced?
The most vocal and effective criticism I have seen came from south of the border. As a result, no Scot has been silenced. And any that were inconvenienced may well be in line for big compo settlements.
You need to make more of an effort to capture the nuance of a situation, TH. Simply hitting CAPS LOCK at regular intervals doesn’t magically turn your posts into facts or accurate assessments of reality.
Yip, one of the few things he’s good at is throwing old carrots for the donkeys, like any old circus clown can do. The other thing he’s good at is [Redacted].
Here’s what Peter A Bell had to say about it –
link to peterabell.substack.com
Believing in Independence, and being willing to vote for it, are two very different things.
Because we’ve all seen what happened under devolution. The SNP went all out to capture every institution from the media, to the police, to the judiciary, to the civil service.
That’s not a serious government in waiting. It’s a banana republic in waiting.
Lack of accountability, malicious prosecutions, public money squandered, and public bodies compromised.
And that’s only devolution. Imagine the damage if a full transfer of power had taken place. It doesn’t bear thinking about.
To get Independence over the line, everything has to change.
Real separation of powers. Real independent public bodies, real accountability. And above all, real safeguards to prevent what happened, from ever happening again.
And that starts with a cast iron, written constitution, ensuring power always resides with the people.
Independence will be a given, when voters are assured that a small cabal of those in power cannot hijack the entire State for their own ends. Which can happen. Easily.
I think the majority have always believed in Independence. They just haven’t believed in those who would have been in charge. Because we all know it’s not just about us. It’s about our children, and our children’s, children. It’s about handing down a system to future generations, that is incorruptible and fair to all.
A set in stone, written constitution for an independent Scotland. Stronger than any passing government. Stronger than any individual. Ensuring those in charge cannot become more powerful than those who vote.
It would resolve all doubt on Independence.
But it does bring me back to the current problems. Who on earth could we trust to write it? I know in my own head who I’d trust, but I’ve no doubt they’d not be allowed nowhere near it by those currently in charge, or those who may take over from them.
I wish Alex Salmond had foreseen what came about, and preempted it with a written constitution. I’d have trusted him with it. Most would. He was a democrat above all, and never had a problem of reaching across the political divide if it was in Scotland’s interest to do so.
For all his faults, the Country came first. It seems a long time since we had anyone like that at the top table.
Just get version 0 out there, put out a call for review / input, and revise as necessary. The one thing than absolutely cannot happen is to let the troughers write their own meal ticket.
A clever person would put it under Farage’s nose as a model for an English constitution. The island has to be shared, so we may as well align our interests and work together to clean out the rot and the cobwebs.
Scots fowk awready hiv thair ain constitution:
link to salvo.scot
That would be more useful if it was written in a language that most Scots could understand. It’s current version is just a mishmash of made up words and misspelled English.
“Scots fowk awready hiv thair ain constitution:”
aye, Alf. mair than cuid be sayd fir the Inglis fowk wha hiv a “uncodified constitution” which means thay hiv nae real constitution, writ doun or ither, at aw.
the Scots hiv a constitution o’ ther ain aw writ oot an set doun in that langage cried the Scots leid tae.
an nae dout a guid nummber o’ thaim Scots wha haud a furrin croun abuin ther ain’ll find it richt easy tae tak a fause aith o’ fealtie upon the Scots croun agin whin the Inglis croun sae beluvit tae thaim is thrawed oot Scotlan…sic is ther bauch moralite.
What a braw language Scots is.
Here it is in English, Dunx, nae bather at aw:
link to salvo.scot
The MSM is reporting a new crackdown on dog ownership and dog walking in the Ir@nian shithole.
What does our Scottish constitution have to say about our right to keep dogs?
This is the kind of stuff people really care about.
Excellent post.
“Whose niece is she?”
That’s just so baaadddd. And I’m loving it!
Alba not standing candidates is curious to me. Fair enough if it is purely a fiancial matter, but tactically you’d test the water surely,if only for the data.
Anecdotally, the whole SNP 1&2 nonsense won’t fly this time (probaably) voters found out that was a one way ticket to more Unionist MSP’s.
The admittedly small sample I am familiar with who want to continue voting SNP (for reasons) are looking for somewhere to shove their 2nd vote, the Greens are definitely not not it and so Alba ‘should’ be a stick-on.
Oh well, FAFO right enough.
“Alba not standing candidates is curious to me”
I couldn’t agree more. It does not look like Alba is seeking to act as a full grown political party that is ready to stand up to the SNP and whatever is required to pursue independence. It is, to be frank, puzzling and puts a question mark on the actual purpose of Alba.
Having said that, by not standing in Hamilton, Alba made absolutely clear that the SNP is not losing because Alba is competing for the same voting base. The SNP is unilaterally losing votes, full stop. It is haemorrhaging votes because of the direction the SNP itself has taken, not because there is a pro-independence alternative votes can choose instead.
The election in Hamilton completely blew up the delusion that, the only thing that needed to ensure pro-independence voters continue to vote for this useless, devolutionist SNP is to ensure there is no real pro-independence alternative for them to vote for.
Pro-independence voters have sent a message to the SNP loud and clear: they would rather remain at home than wasting another vote for Swinney’s useless, devolutionist SNP.
I think that point had to be made and this election made it beautifully clear.
Labour may be politically dead in Scotland, but the SNP is in its political dead throes too. It was mortally wounded as a pro-independence party the day the political fraud Sturgeon announced that a vote for the SNP was not a vote for independence. But Swinney should be credited with having finished it off.
Again, whilst most of the focus remains on the vote share, the elephant in the room continues to be deliberately ignored:
Only a minority of that constituency’s electorate was engaged enough to cast a vote.
Pro-independence supporters had a very good reason for not casting a vote: with their actions, the SNP and Greens have self-declared to be pro-devolution rather than pro-independence parties.
But there was no reason for unionist voters to not cast a vote. There were a good selection of unionist parties to choose from.
Yet, the union was only able to command 17,851 voters out of 61,485 to the polling place. That is a meagre 29% of the electorate in that constituency.
Despite the deep state’s successful effort in disabling Scotland’s political vehicle for independence, the union appears to be in more trouble than ever.
So the takeaway from Labour (a foreign, pro-union party) winning the by-election is that the union is in more trouble than ever.
Naw. Not seeing it.
I don’t think the SNP can even be described as devolutionist – they’ve achieved the grand total of hee-haw on that front either despite holding mandates in both parliaments since 2015.
Even when they had Westminster by the short & curlies after indyref – Sturgeon & Swinney still managed to walk away from the Smith Commission with feck all.
They’re a complete waste of everyone’s time. Even their policies was just finishing off Alex Salmonds & now they’re all out of ideas. That’s the result of Sturgeons brain dead intake. Fresh out of ideas & fresh out of being relevant.
Alba & others need to step up cause Unionists offer nothing even Unionists as they’re more likely to vote SNP (& probably do) cause of the mitigation factor. Scotland funding & mitigating Nawbags to keep them from having to make a decision.
Swinney is reported to have said, he’s rearranging the deck chairs in the Cabinet BECAUSE of the loss in Hamilton
The man is as thick as they come
John YOU are the problem.
Unfortunately we don’t have an Alex Salmond riding to the rescue this time
I would say that Reform are the most likely to remind the sneering political class. That we’re actually a country. They are the most likely to get the British flag up for d-day and the Saltire on public buildings. The inclusive flag of everyone in Scotland.
Labour are giving our money away, taking us to war. I saw yesterday in the Telegraph: 1 in 4 schools in England. The demographics are foreign.
Our country’s been given away. Indians are about to arrive and pay no VAT for 3 years – undercut wages for the native Scot’s in retail and hospitality. They’ll bring all their families, they’ll have children and they’ll pay next to nothing in tax while getting handouts.
Meanwhile the NHS gives houses to foreigners working instead of their own who can’t get on the housing ladder,
You’ve a racist scumbag if you say anything about it. So that’s why Reform deserves to win. Because they might just finally remind Swinney and Starmer that this our country, and all we’ve got left is the flag! Hahaha bleak!!!
My final thought. If I could relate it to the NHS. The NHS has recruited overseas and is now got a BME leadership program. Making more managers to join the 500 others based on skin colour alone. This has been in place for 3 years in NHS Scotland. This a racist hiring policy and it’s being challenged in November in England.
So. The staff are upset when the staff get cut, the demographics change. The staff believes the foreigners have not been trained to the same standards. Posters are put up on the walls challenging racism. Everyone was colourblind before they started this nonsense. And not a Saltire in sight. Just transgender flags in June, it was the same last year even when Scotland were at the Euros.
I used to be woke. 10 years I’ve wanted Independence while the countries been given away. Opportunities squeezed and working standards deteriorated.
The only thing now stopping me voting Reform is I want Independence. I beleive Alba need to distinct themselves firmly away from the SNP. To accept that immigration is not working for us anymore. All these middle class lefties in Alba need to accept it’s not the end of the world to say, we don’t want anymore. And to put Scots first. How hard is that to adopt the Reform attitude?
They’d pick up most of the SNP voters that’s for sure – and kill off Sturgeonism for good.
Never heard of a BME programme in the NHS in Scotland. I would like to see some proof it exists as in the last 25 years working in the NHS I have never seen anything remotely like it.
Yes there can be HR kid gloves issues when hiring in regard to minorities of any sort getting an interview but never had any pressure to high them if they were not suitable.
Are you sure you are just not listening to the propaganda?
Rob. NES anti-racism plan BME managers. “It’s not enough to not be racist” was the headline in the daily mail. “A diverse leadership program as a result of the leadingtochange.Scot programme.”
link to nes.scot.nhs.uk
The BME managers programme is explicitly stated in both NHS GGC workplace policy holders reports.
“February 2025 will see the delivery of our third dedicated leadership programme for BME staff to 30 members of staff.”
And the 2023/24 Workplace policy holders report for NHS GGC.
link to live.nhsggc.scot
NHS GGC “This has enabled us to access additional funding for our first dedicated leadership programme for 30 BME employees – delivered in partnership with PATH Scotland – which supports the aspirations for employees to move into senior and promoted posts. This programme first ran in 2022/23, with a second cohort of 30 employees undertaking the programme in 2023/24.”
What’s your thoughts Rob, stand corrected, no whites need apply?
Very good post.
Regarding Alba; well, they’ll have to start standing at elections and by elections as I’ve certainly never even been given the option of giving them my vote (which incidentally I would have) if they want to be taken seriously.
Now, they just seem to be some sort of politico “through the looking glass” version of their previous life’s in the SNP.
I do despair, near 50% Indy support and these deviant enabling wokerati in their city wine bars bubble can’t even realise they’ve been rumbled as snake oil salesman befitting Westminster standards of misgovernment.
And then there’s today’s latest; a “reshuffle” to suit Mhairi McAllan due back from maternity!
Give me strength: purge the useless gets like McAllan, serial failure Gilruth and the rest and let others have a go..
Oh for auld Scotland!
Wonder if such a sentiment ever crosses SNP minds anymore?
Personally I doubt it.
Once the SNP is toast these grifters will simply suckle onto the teats of the next “winning” party.
David
I am with you. Alba were my last hope but they have proven useless. I find with the exception of trans scepticism, they sign up to the usual panoply of globalist virtue-seeking same old. They are populated largely by social democrats who do not realise the left are lo longer socialist or democratic . I agree with Stu’s general analysis that Reform could be frozen out but I also believe that the consequences of borderless Britain, authoritarian leftism, divisive racialist and the economy crashing about our ears will make Reform viable even for a majority in Scotland. People are no longer scared by the Far right label, nor idiots screaming fascism who are actually fascistic in their tendencies with lesson thrown in from Pol Pot, Mau and Stalin. Our welfare system has now become a pre distribution mechanism for the wretched and backward of the earth. Our labour market has become a hiring hall, and the public sector jobs will be kept from the white working and middle class. This is already happening. Promotion in the public sector is based now in identity not competence. Hordes of female midwits run our public services, and hate ordinary people. Just look at the likes of Jess Philips and our senior public servants in Scotland.
The Pakistani rape clans enquiry will expose the collusion and duplicity, of the ruling class in even sharper relief. Reform are becoming close to a facsimile of old labour, and the fragmentation of the Islamic bloc into their own parties and green zealots into theirs , will destroy centrist politics. As for independence it’s finished. All the hare brained schemes of Salvo and liberation won’ t bring it back. All the pseudo leftist claptrap about Colonialism, even if incanted in lowland slang won’t attract ordinary people. The real issue is how we preserve a Scotland/ Britain which is fair and inclusive for all not a balkanised dormitory like Ireland.
An excellent post.
I would add that recent moves to make it easier to eliminate “unproductives” from society are, as quite a lot of people are starting to see for themselves, indicative of the plans our elites have for the rest of us.
Two stories from just this week come to mind.
The likely removal of the promised safeguards from the assisted dying legislation.
The extension of abortion to allow the killing of viable babies.
Both of these are squarely aimed at the indigenous population. And then we have the constant calls for removal of the 2-child benefit cap, when virtually no indigenous family ever has more than 2 kids.
What demographic do readers think this will benefit?
Who are the membership of the SNP and what is their IQ, these are the questions most of us has asked ourselves because even if you take the constitutional question of the table and just focused on the party its obvious that Swinney and his party’s policies in government its winning over the Scottish voters and listening to Mr Swinney he isn’t for turning.
So like I said, who is the membership and why have these people joined the SNP? Because it isn’t for Independence and it isn’t to support the political party that’s the SNP, hence I said whats there IQ?
The membership seems to be as clueless on the constitutional question as is the leadership and they don’t have any motivation in securing the party’s interest for the future, so what do the SNP membership really want because I haven’t got a clue and its this reason why the SNP is going to fail at the election next year and is the reason its going to end as a political party.
Its wishful thinking to believe after 2026 Holyrood election Scotland going to be an Independent country again, but it isn’t wishful thinking to believe that the SNP will be out on their ear from government and finished as a political party, job well done Nicola.
As regards Independence the reality is that it is finished because the SNP will get the votes of the deluded for at least a few decades. I speak to friends and colleagues from my Party days and they are still Members. They recognise that they have no plan or any intention to develop one. They cling to their membership as a symbol of their commitment to Scotland unable to accept reality.
The SNP and Greens have turned Holyrood into a Citizen Smith Stage play. I wanted future generations to have a future but they will just be new voting fodder for the Woke Children of Holyrood.
The TransCult Progress flag, The Palestine flag and the Union flag are the future of Scotland. It makes no difference to my life and my lifelong support for Independence was always for the generations to come….not for me.
The Movement that became a Party, that became a Government, that became a Ponzi Scheme.
The SNP can reinvent itself as many times as it likes, but unless or until it addresses the cynical brazen betrayal of the Independence Movement, right when Independence lay within the palm of our hand, then the SNP is indelibly tainted and can rot in Hell as far as I’m concerned.
Why on earth would I give someone a doorkey after they’ve burgled the house? Do they think I’m that stupid? Do they really suppose my memory is that fickle?
There’s an integrity issue to be dealt with. Who amongst that shower can even be trusted?
There’s an accountability issue to be dealt with. Heads have to roll.
There’s a rehabilitation issue to be dealt with. Will competence be delivered overnight by magic wand or a miracle?
There’s the expulsion, (hopefully prosecution), of our betrayers to be undertaken. I hesitate to use the word “purge”, when a “thorough delousing” seems a much more apt expression.
There’s the infamous “plan” to be devised and articulated, which must prove itself credible. Good luck getting that out the gravy bus grifters in the SNP.
Then there’s atonement for the decade plus of broken promises and callous exploitation of Scottish patriots who seek Scotland’s rehabilitation as a sovereign Nation.
Then there’s the Salmond affair, and all the rancid skullduggery which makes Watergate look tame. Not a whistleblower to be seen eh? Really? OK, then all must hang.
Then there’s the “Security Services and Infiltration” issue, and establishing just how compromised our “leadership” structure (don’t laugh), actually is.
Then there is the media issue, and having all of the above issues communicated to Scotland’s people in a way that’s diligent, objective and rational, but critically and fundamentally, loyal to Scotland first, forsaking all others. Never forget, after the shameful disgrace of 2013-14, yet not a single blade of grass of the rotten Unionist “Media” met the scythe.
Vote for SNP? Aye, maybe I will, if the other 11 jurors agree. – Guilty.
If we, the Independence Movement proper, have a plan which depends on the SNP in any capacity, then it’s back to the drawing board for us, because we don’t have a credible plan.
Breeks, I know you know this already, but you can add to your list the changes to candidate selection procedures, NEC composition and voting rules, internal discipline rules, and even selection of the Dear Leader. The bridges to change were burned to the ground, and the water filled with crocodiles. The SNP, as an organisation, is fundamentally and irretrievably broken. There’s no amount of reform or soul-searching, should any of them have one, that can fix that.
Oh dear – another topic quoting “polls”.
When will people learn?
O/T has anyone been booted off Facebook this week ?
Jocky Wilson, in the bath with a pint. I think I get it.
‘As a child, Wilson’s parents were deemed unfit to raise him and Wilson spent much of his childhood in an orphanage. Wilson served in the British Army from 1966 to 1968. He also worked as a coalman, a fish processor, and a miner at Kirkcaldy’s Seafield Colliery (those were the days). In 1979, during a period of unemployment, he entered a darts competition at Butlins, Ayrshire, which he went on to win, claiming the top prize of £500, (worth around £2,300 in 2024). After his success in this tournament, he turned professional.
In 1981, Wilson beat world number one Eric Bristow and Cliff Lazarenko of England in the BDO Nations Cup final. His Scotland teammates in the 5–4 win were captain Rab Smith and Angus Ross.
His greatest achievements came in the World Championships, first in 1982 where he beat Lowe 5–3 in the final, and then seven years later, when he beat his other great rival Bristow 6–4 in a classic match, where Bristow had recovered from 5–0 down to 5–4 and 2–2 in the tenth set.’
I look at the Sp and don’t think that they represent me or what I want the country to be, most of them are the sort of people I would cross the street to avoid and keep my distance from.
Politicians are not there to serve their own views but to represent the folk that voted them there, we have not been in that position for some time now.
I think reform will do a whole lot better that folk seem to think next year, simply as a protest vote against the idiots that sit in parliament right now, nothing to do with what they stand for but to eliminate the existing folk and try and reset the system.
“Fuck around and find out, the angry child recites this every day.”
I don’t think Nicola Sturgeon was under the thumb of deepstate London, I think she spent her decade poisoning the entire Scottish infrastructure for her own agenda and to drive through her beliefs. Health, education, police, justice, media, Holywood, she has poisoned all of them. She didn’t need ” independence”, she had all the power she needed. Was all working to her version of Stalinism until she took it too far with the rainbows and vengeance on Alex Salmond.
Whover leads SNP forwards has to dismantle her entire edifice and clear out all her lackeys or we are wasting our time. Unfortunately the entire current leadership already the self-same lackeys.
Talk to the press and (maybe) they will tell you what a D-Notice means.
Keir Starmer well knows their scope and efficiency. Mark Hirst while he was a Holyrood aid made an FOI request which revealed over 800 MI5 contacts with the Scottish Government
There is no secret about what a D notice is.
Since MI5 is responsible for counter-terrorism in the UK, it would be highly surprising if there were not regular contact with the Scottish Government.
Your figure is quite reassuring – if there had been a denial of any contacts, that WOULD have been very suspicious.
Oneliner…
“an FOI request which revealed over 800 MI5 contacts with the Scottish Government”
Utterly meaningless statement without some context !
e.g……over what period ? Twenty years? Five years ? One year ?
what was defined as a “contact”… a phone call ? a letter ? a routine reply to a background check for high level appointments ?
Oneliner;
You’ve upset the yoons.
I agree, people tend to grasp at straws such as the preposterous “deepstate hypothesis” when far simpler, less edifying explanations such as you describe are staring them in the face.
From an Indyscot POV, if the SNP is so irretrievably riddled, it is surely unrealistic (and wholly unachievable) to salvage it. However, as if that weren’t problem enough, there’s no credible alternative (well, if you discount Reform….). Alba has fallen flat, and as for the rest of the fringe groups and “initiatives”, well, to put it charitably even the most hardened independence supporter cannot seriously give them any credence in his/her heart of hearts.
Yet another problem is that despite everything, a sizeable chunk of the electorate *still* votes SNP. Just let that sink in: if the events of the last few years haven’t been enough to precipitate change, then what would?
So then, huge immovable obstacles, precisely zero credible alternatives nor popular support – and huge voter inertia. From an external perspective, the prospect of Scottish independence has not been lower than now for at least 15 years.
If the vast majority of Scottish people truly wanted independence, the politicians would fall all over themselves to back it.
Politicians would back alligator worship if they thought it would win them votes. It’s not a matter of principles–they just want to get re-elected.
The politicians, who want to keep their jobs, have concluded that Indy just isn’t much of a vote winner. As the Hamilton Larkhall by-election has shown.
I’m sure that most people reading this will be familiar with Donald Rumsfeld’s famous quote –
“As we know, there are known knowns; there are things we know we know. We also know there are known unknowns; that is to say we know there are some things we do not know. But there are also unknown unknowns—the ones we don’t know we don’t know.”
Slavoj Žižek expanded on Rumsfeld’s groupings –
“Beyond these three categories there is a fourth, the unknown known, that which we intentionally refuse to acknowledge that we know.”
That’s pretty much where the SNP management is now (and has been for several years). They simply cannot acknowledge that they’ve screwed the pooch. Since they don’t/won’t listen to anyone outside of their bubble, they don’t hear the mood-music. They refuse to acknowledge what is in plain sight. They can’t/won’t read the room: they can’t/won’t see the elephant within. They can’t/won’t decide what is a ‘room’.
I’m also fond of the William Goldman quote about making movies:
“Nobody knows anything… Not one person in the entire motion picture field knows for a certainty what’s going to work. Every time out it’s a guess and, if you’re lucky, an educated one.”
You could replace the phrase’entire motion picture field’ with the word ‘psephology’, I suppose. I wonder what Curtice’s career stats for hits & misses is currently? Polls, eh?
Interesting comment, BigJay – thank you.
I’m beginning to think the state of affairs in the SNP and Scotland at large isn’t due to Nicola Sturgeon but middle class lefty’s.
These middle class lefty’s are blinded by their biases by supporting whatever cause that they think are progressive and cling onto this need to be seen to be progressive not matter the consequences.
They are sucked into the mess that is social media where every crazy idea is championed and due to lack of critical thinking they can’t see how bad it is.
These middle class lefty’s are the most politically active in our society and make the biggest noise. With this, it is hardly surprising that the SNP and other mainstream parties aim for this group and fight amongst themselves to be the most liberal progressive.
Nicola Sturgeon’s influence will soon disappear from the Scottish political scene but the influence of these middle class lefty’s won’t.
I know it’s exceptionally difficult for some people to get their heids around, but the idea that one wee wumman could single-handedly drag the entire SNP, plus all the people who voted and continue to vote for it, in a direction it and they didn’t want to go for over a decade, defies belief.
Throw in the fact that the wee wumman under discussion has all the charisma, fire and engagement of a fifties something customer services operative and we’ve got nonsense squared on stilts.
You might be right about middle class lefties. It’s more plausible than the pantomime belief in Sturgeon, the pantomime villain.
Hatey McHateface
There is enough on the web that paints the picture of Sturgeon being a toxic personality who ran the SNP and the Scottish government as a cult.
However, the problem is that she was also a populist which was incompatible with Scottish mainstream politics which is liberal and progressive.
This is what I was trying to get at with these Middle class lefty’s whom she courted with this populism.
If Scotland was like England where most of the newspapers are right leaning and mainstream political thought is small c conservatism then she would have a better chance with this strategy rather than with this progressive politics where the need is never ending and ever increasing extreme progressive change to our society and it’s institutions.
Thanks for your reply, Bilbo.
I’m not following your logic though.
If Scotland doesn’t like populism, the rise in support for Reform in Scotland is a strange way to show it.
“England where most of the newspapers are right leaning and mainstream political thought is small c conservatism”
There’s plenty of small c conservatism in Scotland. That’s one of the reasons the SNP used to be called the Tartan Tories.
That’s one of the reasons Reform are on the march up here.
That’s one of the reasons the late, great Alex Salmond was able to make the advances towards Indy he did – he instinctively understood, like Rev Stu, that plenty of Scots have no time for the Student Grant kind of politics that infest the loony left and that has captured the Indy movement.
That’s one of the reasons I predict a real chance of Scotland breaking apart if Indy is not well handled. The small c conservatives of the Borders, Grampian and the Northern Isles will happily go their own way, leaving the Central Belt and Highlands to rerun the forever failing Marxist experiment on their lonesome.
Leaving the Central Belt and Highlands without the resources and cash they will need to fund their non-productive experiment too. But that’s a different debate.
BigJay –
“That’s pretty much where the SNP management is now . . .”
And unfortunately so is the party membership that keep voting for them.
Guys – you are absolutely correct.
If I feel threatened, I can contact my lawyers:
Finucane, Nelson & McRae
Young Lochinvar @ 12.48am
Wally Jumblatt @ 8.48 am
Mairi McAllan served her political apprenticeship with Nicola Sturgeon as far as I am aware, so she’ll be elevated on her return from maternity leave. Doesn’t matter if she has any competency or experience in politics or the world of work, it’s loyalty to Nicola & Swinney that matters, to keep important things swept under the carpet.
On the plus side, after her maternity leave, she should be able to answer the question “What is a woman?” on behalf of the SNP cabinet.
I write “should” … she may be told to keep it zipped.
Most other things in ScotGov are closely guarded secrets these days. So why not that?
whose niece is she?
I tried looking it up using google and another search engine and got a wee message saying some results were withheld. Im worried.
1) Are you allowed to answer my next question?
2) Whose niece is she?
3) Do you feel censored in many ways?
If a Google search, even one powered by AI, can answer your question, based on what I infer is Rev Stu’s meaning, I will be very impressed.
And a wee bit scared.
It’s very possible she is somebody’s niece.
It’s also possible she is somebody’s “niece”.
I assumed the existence of the double quotes. If AI can do that too, then the sky is the limit for that technology. And a lot of people in the public eye are gonna be shitting bricks.
I was reading yesterday how the latest generation of driverless cars ape human driving behaviour. They anticipate lights changing. They creep onto pedestrian crossings while pedestrians are still on the road surface. All just like impatient humans do to bend the rules.
Things are changing fast.
Parataxis is the natural way of speaking and writing the English language; it’s the way English wants to be written and spoken. English is, at its core, an uninflected language.
In English everything depends on the word order. It’s all subject verb object. The man kicked the cat. The cat scratched the dog. The dog bit the man.
In Latin and German, for instance, things are different. Words can be moved around and the sentence can still be understood because of the endings.
“Deus amat Scotos.” and “Scotos Deus amat” both mean “God loves the Scots.”
English isn’t like that. It’s paratactic. It’s linear. It’s one sentence. Then it’s another. Then it’s another one after that. And another after that. How boring. How tedious. How dreary. How dull.
Shakespeare had to invent almost 2,000 new words for English just to make his plays a wee bit more interesting than they would’ve been otherwise.
But I’m being ungracious. English is a very useful language… and was so long before Will walked onto the stage.
In our modern times English is invaluable for air traffic control and for the production of technical manuals and has long been prized for its use in the preparation of incomprehensible business contracts and for its ambiguity in the field of international law – especially treaties.
English is also well-suited for some genres of fiction; for relating the dystopian despair felt by fowk trapped in some colourless totalitarian hellscape, for example.
Orwell liked the paratactical style, Hemingway liked it, too. But few English writers between 1600 and 1850 much liked it.
Of course it’s impossible for us to forget the essential use of English in the endless film, television and stage productions of Bronte sister sagas, Dickensian metropolitan tales and Austenian rumour mongering (my favourite is Pride and Prejudice and Zombies – brilliant!).
And then there are the plays of the bard himself – never in the field of human entertainment have so few plays been performed so often by so many thespians (I paraphrase Churchill here, of course).
The alternative to the paratactic style for those writers of English who so choose to use it is hypotaxis. Hypotaxis is the use of subordinate clauses upon subordinate clauses, which themselves may be subordinated to those subordinate clauses that have gone before or, indeed, those subordinate clauses that might come after.
The genius credited with inventing hypotaxis is a man called Sir Thomas Browne – a 17th century Norvician polymath cited as the first English prose writer and quite an interesting fellow (King Chuck 2 liked him – thus the Knighthood). But more about Dr Browne some other time, perhaps.
It’s clear that English, although unable to scale the glorified heights of eloquence we see in Scots or Latin. is one of the most useful languages available to the mundane worlds of corporate colonialism and elaborate lies; and to that realm where broken promises and fraudulent treaties are born, live grotesquely twisted and deformed for a time and then, inevitably, die.
So. Parataxis. Hypotaxis. If you didn’t know before. Well, ye ken noo.
“It’s clear that English, although unable to scale the glorified heights of eloquence we see in Scots or Latin. is one of the most useful languages available to the mundane worlds of corporate colonialism and elaborate lies”
Is that so?
It’s clear you always forsake Scots and revert to English when you want people to actually understand what it is you’re saying.
Does that mean you’re lying? Perhaps even elaborately?
Best answer that one in Scots.
Or Latin. I’m sure you have all the time you will need to concoct something using online translation programmes in either language.
“……and extrapolating a uniform national swing from it is a fun exercise for politics nerds but a fool’s errand as a serious projection.”
Time to step up Mr Kelly hahahaha