The world's most-read Scottish politics website

Wings Over Scotland


The phantom referendum

Posted on November 08, 2011 by

The theoretical possibility that the UK Government could usurp the Scottish Government and hold its own referendum on Scottish independence is one that's been kicking around ever since the SNP won its historic majority at Holyrood back in May. But one question that nobody seems to have asked is "So what?"

Much of conventional wisdom has it that only the UK Parliament has the ability to grant Scotland independence, and that the Scottish Parliament can't legally bring about the dissolution of the Union. This is essentially a fallacy, based on misunderstanding of the sovereign nature of the Scottish people, but is generally held to be an academic technicality anyway – should a referendum conducted by Holyrood indicate the desire of the Scottish electorate for independence, the idea of Westminster even attempting to refuse would in practice be unthinkable.

But were Westminster to conduct its own vote, would the situation be any different? It's hard to see how. It was recently claimed by the Tories' Lord Forsyth that Alex Salmond had told George Osborne the SNP would boycott any Westminter-led referendum. This would throw up a pretty interesting constitutional brouhaha by itself, but let's assume the referendum went ahead in 2012, the SNP did indeed refuse to collaborate in it, and let's say for the sake of argument that as a result it delivered a resounding "No" vote on a very low turnout. What then?

The UK would continue business as usual (assuming there hadn't been a civil war), and soon enough would arrive at 2015. At which point the SNP would table the referendum for which the Scottish electorate gave them an overwhelming mandate, and invite the UK Government to try to stop it.

It's difficult to identify any legal grounds on which Westminster would be able to block a referendum which the Prime Minister had repeatedly acknowledged was Holyrood's to hold. Short of Cameron sending in the tanks, the second referendum would go ahead regardless of the result of the first. The constitutional sovereignty of the Scottish people would remain unchanged, as would the unthinkability of any refusal by Westminster to accept the result. Once again, beyond military conflict there simply wouldn't be any way to keep the Union together.

(It's not even as if there isn't extremely recent precedent on these very islands for having two referenda on the same subject in the same country in close succession. Less than 16 months separated the people of the Republic Of Ireland's rejection of the Lisbon Treaty from a second vote in which it was accepted.)

So we're going to go ahead and say with some confidence that there will be no Westminster-conducted referendum on Scottish independence. That it would be democratically outrageous ought to be reason enough, let alone that it would likely be highly counter-productive, but more importantly it would be also completely pointless. Only Holyrood has a mandate for a referendum, and only Holyrood – on Holyrood's own terms – will conduct one.

Subscribe
Notify of
guest

0 Comments
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

  • About

    Wings Over Scotland is a (mainly) Scottish political media digest and monitor, which also offers its own commentary. (More)

    Stats: 6,668 Posts, 1,202,051 Comments

  • Recent Posts

  • Archives

  • Categories

  • Tags

  • Recent Comments

    • Annoyed on The People You Most Suspected: “Sturgeon is done. She’s a disgraced politician desperately trying to stay relevant.Nov 14, 08:32
    • Alf Baird on The People You Most Suspected: “Aye James, Scotland is made into the poorest and most impoverished country in NW Europe by the UK ‘Union’ colonial…Nov 14, 07:48
    • Geri on The People You Most Suspected: “U is losing because Angelo Americans WONT stop pouring in weapons. P has no intention of expanding. He certainly doesn’t…Nov 14, 04:24
    • Campbell Clansman on The People You Most Suspected: “Fearghas’s constant untruths discredit him. I just pointed out the untruths. And you attack the person who points out the…Nov 14, 02:37
    • Young Lochinvar on The People You Most Suspected: “Wrong on this one. From one who has actually seen active service as has immediate relatives I reckon your “pithy”…Nov 14, 00:23
    • Young Lochinvar on The People You Most Suspected: “Really Lorna? Boundaries.. Once crossed.Nov 14, 00:16
    • Young Lochinvar on The People You Most Suspected: “Gloriana; Wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong, wrong. Did I mention wrong? Try and keep up, adults are discussing matters of fact…Nov 13, 23:43
    • Young Lochinvar on The People You Most Suspected: “The question is JS, how long before big backer trans Atlantic funders worm their way into whoever comes next? People,…Nov 13, 23:12
    • Young Lochinvar on The People You Most Suspected: “Yesterdays perverts are todays trendy norm.. See the long term fashionable trend yet?Nov 13, 22:52
    • Jay on The People You Most Suspected: “Presumably, your comment is intended to discredit Fearghas Mc F. but your attempt is nugatory. Such imprecision as may have…Nov 13, 21:25
    • Jay on The People You Most Suspected: “Lorna, I agree with all your comments. The key concept is ‘power’, so far as I can see. The expropriating…Nov 13, 21:10
    • twathater on The People You Most Suspected: “PROFESSOR Alfred Baird please do not ask wee Chas to edumacate himself, he’s liable to get above himself and try…Nov 13, 20:58
    • znovak on The People You Most Suspected: “Yup indeed. I cannot fathom how people who ostensibly support Scottish independence can be in favour of U losing its…Nov 13, 20:56
    • James Gardner on The People You Most Suspected: “1 in 4 children in poverty and 1 in 4 pensioners dying in poverty, proof positive that the politicians are…Nov 13, 20:47
    • James Gardner on The People You Most Suspected: “Seen one dressed as Jimmy saVILE…….WTF ?Nov 13, 20:42
    • Republicofscotland on The People You Most Suspected: “Thanks Alf for the link a very interesting read.Nov 13, 20:42
    • Robert Matthews on The People You Most Suspected: “Professor Plum more like.Nov 13, 20:20
    • Stevie on The People You Most Suspected: “Fking criminal : the SNP is the shte clogging the waste disposal pipes of Scottish politics.Nov 13, 19:52
    • Jay on The People You Most Suspected: “From what I read, it seems that U is increasingly losing ground to its greedy and powerful imperialist neighbour. People…Nov 13, 19:50
    • Alf Baird on The People You Most Suspected: “Yes academics often use referencing to confirm their sources. Perhaps you have never read an academic paper or studied for…Nov 13, 19:44
    • Hatey McHateface on The People You Most Suspected: “There’s you making that claim again, twathater. I’d keep it under wraps, even if it does work like a charm…Nov 13, 19:12
    • Chas on The People You Most Suspected: “I really should not respond to cranks like you but I will keep it relatively short and not so sweet.…Nov 13, 18:16
    • Jay on The People You Most Suspected: “Have you seen anything from RM which could possibly promote Scottish independence? Please let us know.Nov 13, 18:15
    • Hatey McHateface on The People You Most Suspected: “You have to understand there’s a strand of opinion that believes that as long as U has sovereignty and freedom,…Nov 13, 18:03
    • Hatey McHateface on The People You Most Suspected: “A talking plook! BTL channeling Family Guy yet again. As I recall it was Chris who was afflicted – he’s…Nov 13, 17:54
    • twathater on The People You Most Suspected: “TBQH SteepBrae I am 73 yoa and I cannot think of any GOOD politicians from any of the parties, ALL…Nov 13, 17:47
    • Chas on The People You Most Suspected: “Have you any thoughts of your own Alfie boy? All you ever do is quote other numpties. At least we…Nov 13, 17:41
    • twathater on The People You Most Suspected: “I wouldn’t worry Fearghas I think Crapper Campbell has amply exposed his eagerness and willingness to sacrifice his Scottishness to…Nov 13, 17:37
    • twathater on The People You Most Suspected: “Oh No! just when you think that Chas is joining the ranks of real indy supporters with common sense he…Nov 13, 17:14
    • Chris on The People You Most Suspected: “That’s my secondary school in the paper. We never had any of that when I was there!Nov 13, 17:10
  • A tall tale



↑ Top
180
0
Would love your thoughts, please comment.x
()
x