The in-betweeners
The last of our poll data releases yesterday highlighted perhaps the biggest factor in deciding the outcome of the independence referendum – the views of the undecided. Cross-referencing those yet to make up their minds with the other questions in our survey tells us much about the arguments that will win or lose the vote.
So just before we make the full data tables available for any old Tom, Dick and Harry to peruse, here’s an exclusive early sight for the people who paid to make it happen.
Firstly, it’s important not to mistake “don’t know” for “don’t care”. All the undecideds in this data come from the group who rated themselves at least 8/10 likely to vote, with 75% of them saying they’re absolutely certain to do so.
Undecideds made up just over 17% of the “likely to vote” sample, and if you strip them out them the Yes/No figures are 45/55. On those numbers the Yes camp needs undecideds to break a little under 3:1 in favour of independence to win.
(A fair bit, but not gigantically, higher than the proportion they did split in when BBC Scotland held a recent televised debate for an audience of Don’t Knows.)
So let’s see what they think.
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UNDECIDED VOTERS (100%) BY 2011 VOTES
Labour: 39% (constituency) 32 (region)
SNP: 32% (36)
Lib Dem: 11% (5)
Conservative: 2% (4)
Green: – (8)
Didn’t vote/can’t remember: 16% (15)
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A wide range of polls have consistently found that Labour and SNP voters are the most likely to vote against their party’s policy when it comes to independence, so no real surprises there. But as we’ll see shortly, it’s perhaps notable that it’s overwhelmingly those from the left side of the spectrum who currently haven’t made their minds up about whether the United Kingdom or an independent Scotland offers the best hope of achieving their goals.
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SOCIO-ECONOMIC GRADE
A: <1
B: 9
C1: 32
C2: 30
D: 23
E: 14
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The rich and the poor have pretty much made up their minds. The vast bulk of people still thinking about it are those in the middle and lower-middle classes.
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VIEW ON NUCLEAR WEAPONS
In favour: 19
Against: 48
Don’t know: 34
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We’re not going to go through every single one of our social attitudes questions – you can do that yourself from the full tables – but we’ll pick out a few choice examples where there are significant differences between the general populace and the undecideds. The latter come down against Trident by -29, compared to just -14 from the full sample, which alert readers will have noticed is over twice as much.
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VIEWS ON THE MONARCHY
In favour: 40
Against: 33
Don’t know: 27
—————————————–
Our undecideds are still in favour of continued Royal rule overall, but much less so than the general populace: just +7 compared to +18.
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VIEWS ON NATO MEMBERSHIP
In favour: 39
Against: 13
Don’t know: 48
———————————————-
This is an interesting one. Our swithering voters still back membership of the military alliance by a hefty margin – three to one – but much less than the six-to-one of Scots as a whole. Almost half of them aren’t sure, which suggests to us a sizeable clutch of SNP voters still unconvinced by the party’s recent change.
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VIEWS ON FRACKING
In favour: 13
Against: 39
Don’t know: 48
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The wider Scottish public opposed the violent method for extracting natural gas by a net score of just -8, but here it’s a huge -26, and another three-to-one margin of those who expressed an opinion.
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VIEWS ON NUCLEAR POWER
In favour: 20
Against: 32
Don’t know: 48
——————————————
A full-blown reversal here. Scots as a whole backed the construction of new nuclear power stations by a narrow +5, but our undecideds are against by -12.
———————————————-
ON GENDER QUOTAS FOR MSPS
In favour: 40
Against: 23
Don’t know: 37
———————————————-
And a slightly bigger one here, with the full sample opposed by -6 but our undecideds supporting a 50/50 split of men and women in the Holyrood chamber by a clear +17.
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PREFERRED NATIONALITY
Scottish (independent): 42
British: 20
Don’t know: 38
—————————————–
As we noted yesterday, if told that they’d be neither better or worse off in an independent Scotland, a very small plurality of Scots (-4) said they’d vote to stay as they were and avoid all the bother. Among our undecided group, the story is very different, with a thumping +22 who’d prefer independence if all else was equal.
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ON THE ABOLITION OF THE BARNETT FORMULA
(General populace figures)
More likely to vote Yes: 45 (27)
More likely to vote No: 8 (5)
No change: 6 (54)
Don’t know: 40 (15)
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This is a big one. More than half of the full sample didn’t care either way if the funding formula which gives Scots more spending per head than the UK was done away with, as all three Westminster parties now want. Threaten undecided voters with the cut, though, and the number who move towards Yes leaps by 22 points.
If we were the No campaign, we’d stuff a towel in Margaret Curran’s mouth pronto. (For all sorts of reasons, if we’re being honest, but this one more than most.)
———————————————————
REACTION TO THE CAMPAIGN SO FAR
(Full sample)
Much more Yes: 4 (18)
Slightly more Yes: 32 (12)
No change: 54 (55)
Slightly more No: 8 (6)
Much more No: 2 (9)
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This is a telling stat. As you’d expect from a group that isn’t in either camp, there’s less movement at the extremes and more in the middle.
The total proportion of undecideds who’ve shifted towards independence by some degree over the course of the 15-month campaign to date is 36%, compared to just 10% moving the other way. At the extremes it’s a 2:1 margin, identical to that among the general public, but it’s much more marked in the small-movement category – exactly 4:1 towards Yes, compared to 2:1.
People are moving towards independence slowly at this stage, but they’re doing so in very big numbers. We suspect that that particular stat is one which will encourage Yes Scotland more than any other.
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ON WHO SHOULD DEBATE ALEX SALMOND
David Cameron: 31
Alistair Darling: 12
Alistair Carmichael: 8
Other: 15
Don’t know: 33
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Scots as a whole thought the Prime Minister should make the case for the UK by a 3:2 margin over the “Better Together” chairman, but among undecideds the margin was almost twice as high – just short of 3:1. This reflects the fact we also revealed yesterday, namely that Labour voters (who are a higher proportion of the undecideds) really don’t fancy their former Chancellor at all.
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ON LEADER APPROVAL
(Full sample)
Alex Salmond +36 (+15)
Nicola Sturgeon +34 (+12)
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When it came to whether various figures in the independence debate were seen to be acting in the best interests of Scotland or not, the undecided group didn’t vary much from the full sample with regard to the people on the No side (rating Alistair Darling, for example, at -16 rather than -11 and Michael Moore at -25 rather than -20).
But there was a dramatic divergence in the case of the SNP leader and his deputy. The First Minister’s motivations were trusted more than twice as much as the general public gave him, and Nicola Sturgeon did even better, almost tripling her score.
Nobody else moved nearly as much as the +21 and +22 shifts our undecideds gave the nationalist figureheads, although interestingly they also tended to be more trusting of the Scottish media.
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CONFIDENCE IN THE SCOTTISH PEOPLE
Would make a success of independence: 68
Would not make a success of independence: 3
Don’t know: 29
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As we noted yesterday, though, the most spectacular difference between undecided voters and No voters was the level of trust they had in their fellow Scots. Those who’ve made up their minds to vote No don’t believe their countrymen and women have what it takes to make an independent Scotland work by a horrifying -45 margin. Those who aren’t yet sure, on the other hand, think that if it happened we’d make good fist of it by an overwhelming +65.
That, if you can’t be bothered to do the sums, is a 110-point variance – a mindboggling figure in the world of opinion polling. For comparison, the biggest gulf, by a long way, that we could find anywhere else from a quick scour of our poll data was between Tory and SNP voters on nuclear weapons, and even that was only 84 points. (The next-widest gaps were closer to 50 or so.)
Undecided voters believe in Scotland. They’re greener, more left-wing, more republican and less militaristic than the Scottish electorate as a whole. They’re mostly Labour and SNP voters – almost evenly split, but they trust Alex Salmond vastly more than Alistair Darling and Johann Lamont.
They’re ready and willing to be won over, if the Yes camp is up to the job.
Excellent work, Stu! If there are still people out there unsure of where to focus their efforts to promote and encourage a YES vote, this should dispel any remaining doubts. The graphic at the top of the article says it all really 🙂
I think Im too stupid to figure out the above results.
Says a lot about our education system and the continual twtpts being thrown at us since birth. These undecided Scots have only one way to move why are the still sitting on the fence?
So what is the best strategy to win over the undecided voter that hasn’t been employed to date?
Theres a good few facebook pages aimed at undecideds which is all very well but I’d suggest pushing people to look at the BT and Vote No page …decent people would realize the kiind of folks that are on the No team by the usual comments attacking Alex Salmond and the SNP with no regard for the crap that is the UK….bedroom tax, food banks, disabled people either being forced to work or loose money. There are many reasons to get out but nae many to stay in !!!
Rev, we need to start from the conditions set out in the forthcoming White Paper.
In effect that is our Yes Campaign.
The skill, wit, humour and good old fashioned pragmatic way in which we take those undecided voters with us – that’s the real challenge.
The content of the message is great – we need clever, smart, bright ways to communicate it…
This is now the question.. how do we do that?
Obviously, there’s great campaign stuff out there already – so how do we join up the undecided with the content – on their terms??
Not on our terms..
Thanks Stu..would a great presentation of stats. A real eye-opener.
I sincerely hope the MSM fairly report the results of this poll
“I sincerely hope the MSM fairly report the results of this poll”
Prof. Curtice has given it an extensive and fair analysis:
link to blog.whatscotlandthinks.org
Maybe that’ll help.
There’s no place like home. There’s no place like home. There’s no place like home. And no people like those that live here. This fills me with joy. Working on Margo’s original idea of converting just one person…. my better half and myself have (so far) turned 12- 15 no / don’t knows into yes. Either that or. as Margo also suggested at the rally this year, we’re just a polite race and will agree just to be nice 🙂
The next time Sillars, Wilson or any other blood and thunder Nat starts moaning about a lack of passion, patriotism or ‘Wha’s like us’ in the Yes campaign I hope someone stuffs a rolled up copy of these stats down their throat.
As someone once said, ‘It’s the economy, stupid.’
Jingly Jangly,
I don’t think they are sitting on the fence bud, as the data above suggests they are moving towards Yes at a slow pace and are just waiting to be convinced. They support almost all of the policies that YES/SNP support and being more left wing than Labour or Tory, all they need is the information, Something that BT/MSM are desperate to stop them getting.
Every debate between Yes/No campaigns, that take a before and after vote, shows Yes gaining large numbers of votes when people get this kind of information.
BT are aware of this, The Labour Party is aware of this, The MSM/BBC is aware of this, The UK Gov is aware of this, But more important than all of the above the SNP/Yes campaign, is aware of this, so as Alex Salmond said whoever wins the arguments, will win the referendum.
I doubt he would say this without having a plan up his sleeve to make sure everyone in Scotland gets to hear the arguments without first having the bias of our corrupt MSM, putting it through the Quisling filtering machine.
The reason most people are voting No is because its what the polls are telling them is the majority position. Probably 50-60% of people have only thought about it in such minor detail or not at all that there position is the majority one.
As soon as the polls start gaining momentum (If they do) it could be a huge sizeable shift towards YES. After all who wants to be the odd one out.
What a superb post yet again.
This data should, should act as a wake up call to the Newspaper Editors. You are on the wrong side of the fence. C’mon, loup over it and join us. There is massive potential there to tap into, readership wise, if only you’d stop spouting utter pish and start visualising what a modern Scotland could look like.
The quality of these articles have been really impressive, streets ahead of anything that the MSM have or can produce.
God knows how many votes you have given the independence movement over all these months, the Yes campaign owe you a huge thank you.
I think you mentioned a psephologist checking the questions before they went out. Can I ask, Stu, was it him? Or perhaps there are good reasons for not saying at this stage…..
Great Job. 🙂
“I think you mentioned a psephologist checking the questions before they went out. Can I ask, Stu, was it him?”
No, it was Prof. James Mitchell of Edinburgh University.
Stu, you should make this into a Powerpoint presentation and make a trip to Yes Scotland’s campaign headquarters. This stuff is worth its weight in gold, although that’s not actually saying much since data isn’t a physical entity and is therefore weightless, so it’s just totally and utterly worth every penny we spent on it instead.
And the brilliant thing is, Better Together’s overgrown schoolboy types will simply write the whole thing off as “Separatist propaganda”.
The second last paragraph sums things up brilliantly. We know the arguments that need to be made. And despite the massive obstacle that is the MSM I think we increasingly know how to get them across.
Steve Stewart says:
“What a superb post yet again.
This data should, should act as a wake up call to the Newspaper Editors. You are on the wrong side of the fence. C’mon, loup over it and join us. There is massive potential there to tap into, readership wise, if only you’d stop spouting utter pish and start visualising what a modern Scotland could look like.”
I have the impression that over the last few months the Herald has figured this out and is quietly moving across to the Yes side. They’re not there yet, but they’re on the move. The problem is that in terms of readership, it doesn’t get to the people who need to be turned. For that, you have to get to the Record and the Sun.
Hey Doug have you any information on how Evelyn Glennie is leaning in the Independence debate? She is from your neck of the woods n’est-ce pas?
Brilliant work Rev.
Now, and im sure this may already be in your plans, can you focus the site towards the Dont Knows. We already have the converted audience, its capturing the attention of the Dont Knows Wings needs to look towards now.
We know Labour are a cooked goose. We know the Lib Dems are done. (Hey it lunchtime!). We need to try and spell out the worse case scenarios for the abstainers and the No voters while showing the DOnt Knows exactly why YES is the only answer.
All old news to you and folk here of course but worth repeating none the less.
Well done yet again. Look forward to your rallying call for Poll number 3.
The data come from those claiming to be 8/10 likely to vote. If the turnout is 80%, which I think may be likely, then we really need to be looking down to the 5/6s. How much would that change the data?
Also are there enough 8/10s to swing it?
Hey Doug have you any information on how Evelyn Glennie is leaning in the Independence debate?
I’m not Doug obviously but she came out as a NO around about the time of the Olympics…..
Annie Lennox is a YES…….
Emile Sande will do whatever Cowell tells her to..
There’s a guy who used to be in The Shamen works in the Grill…….havenae asked him but he’s pours a decent pint….
And I’m nae sure what universe Colin Angus is in these days let alone how he intends to vote……
And that’s your update on Aberdonian Muso’s and how they’ll vote…….
A very fair hearing from Prof Curtice I thought. He is right that the polls indicate that it is indeed the economy (whether one is stupid or not). I think at some point we might have to poll again with a series of economic questions just to nail all the ducks.
The Herald reported on the poll and it was mentioned by the SNP in their response to a BBC article plus it was covered by the BBC on Headlines yesterday. This is all good. I wonder if the Hootsmon will pick and run something completely insane with it?
“I wonder if the Hootsmon will pick and run something completely insane with it?”
They have a small piece on it today.
link to archive.is
Hopefully the forthcoming white paper will give a basis on which arguments about the economy can be built. but the overriding argument will be, we can better build the economy in Scotland when the people controlling all the economic levers are they ones who live here and who we vote for.
Am very pleased I put money in to support you and this poll. I’ll be equally happy to do so again.I thought that John Curtice did give a fair analysis. I noticed he commented on economic issues and that people were concerned about that as driver of where they would put their x . He was of the view that the poll hadn’t covered that. Fertile territory for questions for the next poll?Say the word and I’ll stump up! All to play for.Well done sir!
Andrew
The poll suggests that are are enough 8/10s to take us over the 50% line if we can convice most of them to vote Yes. The data seems to suggest that the Don’t Knows are largely Yes leaning but need convincing Anything else is a bonus.
“People are moving towards independence slowly at this stage, but they’re doing so in very big numbers.”
Pretty much what Stephen Noon has been saying will happen, and is happening, for ages.
I think one other thing the undecided figure shows up is that a lot of people are desperately wanting to be persuaded either way. I do recall being at that stage early last year when I was tipping to Yes. I desperately wanted the no campaign to give me some good reasons – preferably federalism on the ballot paper. I’ve always been quite pro-British at heart (though utterly opposed to Westminster and all it stands for). It’s a wrench when you’re half English, have a lot of English friends, spend a lot of time in London and Liverpool etc, to shift to a position where you’re saying “No, we need to move on from that for Scotland”.
But it was obvious from early on the No campaign had nothing to offer, only abuse and derision of the Yes side. And that irritated the hell out of me because, even when undecided, I could see the possibilities and normality of independence. But there will be many out there who are far more pro-British, pan-British whatever you want to call it and for whom that switch is probably harder.
After tese results and having just read Prof. Curtices piece, I find myself astounded, in a good positive way, on how the whole debate has so moved on from any Big Patriotic fervour, dare i say Braveheart, feelings to arguments over hard real-life modern day Economics, an example of which was the First Minister and his teams handling of Grangemouth
On the Economics area, the NO Campaign are a busted flush. They cant agree within their own parties ( yes you Johann) let alone Together. Any desire by the No Campaign to snipe and hide behind a William Wallace cringe factor are redundant, thats irrelevant for this referendum. We have all moved on. They have not.
This really is there for the taking and well done again for helping identify the true key target areas.
I agree that Don’t Know does not equal Don’t Care.
However, I can only say to my fellow campaigners, get out into your working class council schemes to canvas, and take registration forms with you.
We are finding the people who live in the likes of Muirhouse/Drylaw etc in our constituency are overwhelmingly Yes, but are not always on the Electoral Roll. Our colleagues in Pentlands are finding similar in Sighthill/Wester Hailes.
No-one is polling these folk, and I really think the campaign can be won here. People are not apathetic – they’re disillusioned.
Get in there!
Rev Stu, this is an absolutely fantastic piece of work – thank you sincerely. As Doug Daniel suggests, YES Scotland strategists really have to make full use of this (as they will, and have probably started already!). The morale-boost of poll results showing the situation to be much brighter than the MSM portray, is considerable. However, the real value is the information these results provide for YES Scotland to develop new strategies and tweak existing ones during the next 10 months. Money well spent, IMHO.
Stand by for a bit of comic relief, as the next billionaire-funded opinion poll result, showing yet another drop in the YES vote, suddenly appears in the MSM this week. By amazing coincidence, of course.
Seeing the current leanings of the DKs, I wonder what way they would actually vote if the referendum was tomorrow (bearing in mind that ‘don’t know’ will not appear on the ballot paper).
Most of the undecided are asking for more information to make up their minds, hopefully the White paper will have the answers they are looking for!
@HandandShrimp
“I wonder if the Hootsmon will pick and run something completely insane with it?”
Spitefully, they didn’t acknowledge that it was commissioned by Wings.
In response to Cath. I think the points she makes are very good. The “English” population in Scotland is approx 1/2 a million, or 10 %. We’ve always had a sizeable minority English population. It may be that they are , as Cath has indicated , more inclined to a pan British position. My partner is English and is a Yes supporter. I want these people to stay and continue to make a contribution to our society. I don’t want them to feel excluded. Maybe we need to find out in a poll what their concerns are and how those can be answered to give them reassurance. In Quebec , the non French speakers swung against independence, and it was lost.Food for thought?
The Hootsman piece is short but surprisingly neutral. Not so the commenrts though 🙂
O/T but look at what a difference a year makes:
Something for nothing
Denying Something for nothing
(PS Rev..the open in new window option doesnt seem to work for links)
Nice wee SNP press release highlighting this site and focussing on the numbers in support of the council tax freeze. More questions to answer for Lamont and SLab and together with the dodgy leaflet, should make for some good entertainment at FMQs.
Keef: “Hey Doug have you any information on how Evelyn Glennie is leaning in the Independence debate? She is from your neck of the woods n’est-ce pas?”
No idea, but her mum was my dad’s maths teacher, as I have been told many, many times.
It would be extremely interesting to know how many of those planning to vote NO “because they don’t think Scots could make a good job of running their nation” are thinking that because they are absolutely horrified at the possibility the voters of an independent Scotland would vote in the likes of Lamont etc to govern Scotland.
I am sure it would give many voters jitters at the ballot box there was even the remotest possibility the likes of Lamont could be FM.
Once again Stuart, thanks very much for this astounding work. 🙂
I’ll say this again, the majority of the Scottish people want to buy into Scottish independence, they want to believe in it and it needs to be sold to them. There will be 35-40% of the electorate will be a solid NO, the others are soft NOs or DKs waiting to be convinced. As supporters of Scottish Independence we are all the YES campaign, it is our duty to do what’s necessary to help the campaign as best as we can. Whether it is giving up a couple of £s a month in donations, talking to A N Others, going around the doors, setting up stalls, creating Facebook pages, sending links in emails or anything else people can think of that’s within their ability. We all have some sort of talent that can contribute and the magnificent work Rev Stu has done in Wings proves just what one of us can do. After the White Paper is published the gloves come off and the real battle begins. Lets be ready folks, lets get to work, we are many and we can win!
VOTE YES!
@ Desimond – Maybe try Right Click on the link and try ‘Open in New Tab’ – Works for me.
Lamont as FM! That’s democracy! “The People have spoken… The Barstewards!”
The hope is that an independent Scotland would have quality politicos and very little apathy.
Doug. The greatBaldo reckons she is a no.
Great pity as I love her accent ( it seems to have abit of irish as well as welsh) and feel she would sound very compelling in making a case for the YES vote.
Lamont’s position on her Something for Nothing speech and the reprisal of Gray’s “our policies are exactly the same as the SNP …in fact we implemented them all first…no honestly we did” in the Dunfermline by-election leaflet is just plain astounding.
The sad thing is I think the Something for Nothing speech is what Lamont really thinks and what she is saying now is what she thinks the electorate thinks. Once in power it would be straight back to what she thinks.
Interesting that 32% of these don’t knows voted SNP in 2011. Given the high ongoing support for the SNP Government’s performance, there must be a good chance they’ll support YES.
Equally, we know that a large share of Labour voters also believe the SNP governs well. It’s not much of a leap for them to move to YES, is it?
Given the apparent lack of vision and short term view of part of the electorate, is it also likely that they’ll look at the UK coalition government next year and see YES as a way of getting rid of it?
These poll articles have been some of the best and most positive content I’ve seen on Wings. This material is just what was needed at this time – a firm indication that YES is winning the arguments and can win the vote.
Marian
If Scotland votes Yes, the less exciting and able Labour and Lib Dem peeps will be put out to grass. The big beasts will want to run their respective party shows. This will undoubtedly enhance and enliven Holywood debates and politics.
I think it would be interesting if a poll of Labour voters in Scotland were done to ascertain a range of issues that the Yes could address to them specifically.
Fantastic piece of work, and what brilliant analysis as well. Good to see that Prof Curtis acknowledges that this could not be done by any of the MSM, which must give them all food for thought. Power to the people!
Also, so glad you used Prof Jim Mitchell to help with the forming of the questions. It all lends complete authenticity to the results.
When talking with friends, family or out campaigning – don’t waste time with the Hard No folk (they are an energy drain with ideas set in stone)
We should use our time wisely – talking calmly with the Undecided.
“When talking with friends, family or out campaigning – don’t waste time with the Hard No folk (they are an energy drain with ideas set in stone)”
I’ve been saying that for about a year now, but folk still insist on tangling with Hothersall, Smart et al. It might be fun but it’s not constructive.
Of all the poll data released by the Rev. I find the above the most encouraging for the YES side. The Rev’s analytical breakdown of the figures, reveals what most of the unionist polls don’t i.e. just what is going on behind the headline figures. For me the two points which are most encouraging are:
1.The large number who have still to make up their minds;
2. Those in the undecided category look to be very open to persuasion on the benefits of independence across a wide range of issues.
As I said yesterday, I really do think this is winnable and winnable by a comfortable margin. Thanks again Rev for all your work, I think your findings will prove invaluable to the YES campaign team
@Archie [not Erchie]
Thanks, but I didnt phrase it correctly, I meant when you place a link in your comment, you get the option that it will open in same or in a new window. I always say open in new window so readers keep WIngs page open but it doesnt work. Works fine on Etims when i post links there so might just be a WordPress thing.
One thing that needs addressing is the companies that are registered in England for historic reasons, but now only operate in Scotland.
I know this falls in with “economics” but some information in that general area would probably swing a few tenths of a percent from “don’t know” to “yes”.
Mentioning this because I know too many people in the state of “I’m a weird edge case that’s not likely to be addressed, I really want to vote yes, but will I be ok?”
Also, is there a way to check you’re on the electoral roll easily? someone just started me worrying.
There seems to be some belief among some “No” voters that through electing a SNP government in Scotland there will be on going protection from the Westminster cuts. This is not a sustainable position.
“Don’t knows” and wavering “No” voters need to be made very aware of the risks and uncertainties of a vote in favour of the status quo. Every Westminster party is clear about cuts. The bitter Tories together campaign need to be held to account for their future plans.
Spanking weekend of grafting Rev. Your calculator must have friction burns by this point. 😀
Illy
Some of those companies registered in England when the Scottish Parliament was reconvened and had tax raising powers of 3p in the pound, at least one I know moved its registered office from Edinburgh to England as the accountants thought that if the company was registered in England then if taxes were raised in Scotland then they would not apply to them as they were now an English registered company.
It would be interesting to find out how many Scottish Companies have moved their registered offices to England in the last 14 years.
O/T I see that the storm in Southern England is now the biggest ever to hit the UK according to the Beeb. I do suppose that a small part of Wales was affected, Cue an excuse for the next quarters GDP figures to be very disappointing…..
This is good work Rev. Very encouraging after some of the other results.
@AnneDon -“However, I can only say to my fellow campaigners, get out into your working class council schemes to canvas, and take registration forms with you. “
I read somewhere just recently that YES Scotland has identified a million voters in the schemes of Scotland who are likely YES voters. I think the YES campaign are targeting this group in a big way. Sounds like a plan.
Has anyone seen much coverage of the Midwinter report in the MSM, or has Lamont and the dodgy leaflet holed it below the waterline? You would normally expect wall to wall, no?
Yes there is definately a case where the media keep calling Yes the minority. Therefore a lot of wishy washy people believe it and therefore go along with it as it seems to be the thing to do.
O/T I am going to the 5 Million Questions Debate between Blair and Bliar on Wednesday at Dundee University, taking another 5 people with me of whom most are now leaning towards Yes.
Any ideas for questions are welcome; I particularly like the idea of asking Bliar anything along the lines of ‘Have you stopped beating your wife yet?’
Any ideas for questions are welcome; I particularly like the idea of asking Bliar anything along the lines of ‘Have you stopped beating your wife yet?’
Ask him if Police Scotland have done anything regarding the allegations made on BT website and repeated by himself on STV regarding intimidation, cyber crime and vandalising the Scotsman buildings…..
I mean surely he reported these crimes to the Polis ?
Ditto Mags Currans claims about Pro Union Business Leaders being cowed into silence……has any of the alleged ‘intimidation’ been reported to the Polis ?
I feel great for it being a MONDAY and 3 working days left til payday.
Fantastic analysis of the polls and very, very, yeah one more time, VERY encouraging to know that this can certainly be won. The undecided seem to be breaking towards Yes, and the more of these hustings, debates, discussions we have throughout all of Scotland – we can win over people.
I think Labour voters will be crucial. We filmed at a Yes public meeting in Kilbirnie last week where Dennis Canavan (ex-Lab) and Alex Bell (Lab for Indy), plus Shona McAlpine (Women for Indy), gave their reasons for wanting independence.
Overview: link to youtube.com
Canavan: link to youtube.com
Bell: link to youtube.com
McAlpine: link to youtube.com
I think we should be careful not to be rude about Labour voters and supporters. We need their support to achieve a YES result.
“I think we should be careful not to be rude about Labour voters and supporters”
I’ve always avoided it. It’s the politicians (and activists) who are betraying them we go for.
Oh yeah Brotyboy…
Ask him to confirm whether in a bank bail out it’s where your brass plaque or where you do the business that decides the level of bail out…….
If he goes down the ‘Brass Plaque’ route ask him how come the US Govt bailed out RBS and Barclays then ?
Prof Curtice seems happy, all that new data to play with. It will be interesting to see if it changes his tune (a bit) when he is on Newsnight.
Nice to see the poll getting some exposure in the MSM although “could do better” comes to mind. Early days yet though.
I am looking forward to the next one but not for some time yet. Once the white paper has settled in, Xmas etc is out of the way and Rev. Stu has a well earned rest. Perhaps in the springtime when folk are beginning to cheer up after the winter gloom.
“Prof Curtice seems happy, all that new data to play with.”
That’s such a sweet image 😀
@Illy
Look at this page, put in your postcode and contact your local registration office. The annual cards are being sent out now, you have plenty of time to register. It’s set for Glasgow so just change location.
link to aboutmyvote.co.uk
@Brotyboy
Just say,”Blair, Given your time is so precious with Media demands etc, Im sure you will be happy with this simple request:
“With no need to bother with any “I feel” suggestions, can you just give the crowd some hard detailed impartial facts, showing exactly why Scotland is better part of the union, no 300 years history lessons…just the modern day facts, cheers”
After he has waffled for 2 minutes just start slow handclapping him.
@Brotyboy
“Blair, Given the resounding negative appreciation score on WingsOverScotland Poll for Alastair Darling, just how big was the NO Campaign mistake in appointing him?”
@Brotyboy :
Ask for a clarification of the term ‘Better Together’ in a future tense.
Since the term implies a sense of change as in ‘Better’ – what exactly is to improve or be better. (Dont think they have outlined anything on this yet ?)
To date we have seen only suggestions that things will be just about the same together in the future, so should campaing title not be ‘Same Together’ ?
Congrats on another excellent poll, Rev Stu. Some very interesting results.
I’ll keep a weather-eye peeled for your next poll fundraiser and will donate whatever pennies I can rustle up, as previously.
@The GreatBaldo – or we could ask Blair McDougall to explain how the bail-out of trans-national European bank Dexia was handled when they required a bail-out and which governments paid what to bail-out the company, and why:
link to bbc.co.uk
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dexia
AllyPally – Great videos, I never met a Labour voter who isn’t for independence except the odd tribalist where the party is more important than social justice and fairness. Most tories seem to be in this catagory as well. But LFI are doing a great job and more power to them.
“No-one is polling these folk, and I really think the campaign can be won here. People are not apathetic – they’re disillusioned.”
That is one massive unknown with the polls, imo. As far as I’m aware polls automatically discount people who don’t vote, which is fair enough. However it’s likely this referendum is one vote people who don’t generally vote might well register to vote for, and most of those will be the disillusioned for whom voting has never mattered before.
That factor alone could be very badly skewing polls.
Have been asked to pass this invitation on to abody:
‘A quick reminder of the public meeting tomorrow night – Tuesday 29th – at 7.30pm in TURF Bar, High St, Irvine, with SSP national spokesman Colin Fox, and local postal workers’ union leader Tam Dewar as guest speakers.
It’s an all too rare chance to hear them both speak.
The appalling events at Grangemouth make the issues at this meeting even more important than they were a week ago! So I hope you can attend – and speak to a couple of people to get them along too, if you can.
Look forward to seeing you there.
Richie Venton, SSP regional organiser.’
@Ian Brotherhood
Sadly Rangers are playing that night, in a town like Irvine, it could have an affect on possible attendance.
BrotyBoy – “Any ideas for questions are welcome; I particularly like the idea of asking Bliar anything along the lines of ‘Have you stopped beating your wife yet?’”
Nah, no need to ask anything like that. Just ask basic questions that we know they can’t answer, for example “can you guarantee that the Barnett formula won’t be scrapped if I vote No, as various MPs have suggested?” Or “you often refer to yourself as being a Proud Scot. Are you trying to convince us, or yourself?”
Re The disillusioned from the poor housing estates.
Great idea and I think it will prove fruitful.
Well Rev, I dont know what more you can do to point out the benefits of independence, and the downfalls of the union, youve asked a plethora of interesting questions, with fascinating replies.
In my opinion, and I know its early yet but it seems to be leaning in our favour, which is good, but as you finished of with in your last paragraph, the dont knows are their to be won over.
Of course Rev you could just offer the dont knows a free Wings badge, and Bobs your uncle, we’d skoosh it by a long shot.
Thanks to all for the suggested questions. A wee bit of preparatory work needed, but will give it a go.
Ask Bliar why BT doesn’t organise a crowd funded poll.
noticed a lot of the unite and scottish labour websites being pulled, good idea to archive them if possible
it is difficult to see the dividing line between scottish labour and unite, i dont think there is. and as members of the better together camp, would they have been willing to disrupt and cause wide spread industrial discontent to further the aims of better together? and their own personnal political aims?
the internet is strangely quiet, as if holding its breath
Rev Stu great work and another great read. May have spotted a wee typo error with regards to the part of your posting VIEWS ON NATO MEMBERSHIP (SNP voters still inconvinced by the party’s recent change).
Should it not read unconvinced?
“When talking with friends, family or out campaigning – don’t waste time with the Hard No folk (they are an energy drain with ideas set in stone)”
“I’ve been saying that for about a year now, but folk still insist on tangling with Hothersall, Smart et al. It might be fun but it’s not constructive.”
And yet there are two types of “Hard No” – those very dense and solid throughout (examples listed above) and those that appear hard no on the outside but with an extremely soft centre. Worth pointing out.
Are we perhaps concetrating too much on the low hanging ‘dont know’ fruit? The No vote seems to be based on the belief that Scotland would be worse off. They have been told that for 30 years and have never heard of GERS or FCWG. Shouldnt we all be seeking out No voters with a copy of the FCWG report and, when it’s published, the white paper and just telling them to READ IT!… no hard sell.
In my book a converted No is worth 2 dont knows.
I agree that NOs are well worth targetting. Things like the McCrone report and details of the lies we’ve been told for decades have the potential to really open people’s eyes. And the fact that No so closely correlates with people thinking Scotland’s too wee, too poor, too stupid etc absolutely suggests it’s people who just haven’t realised that yet.
OT/ Stephen Deans has quit his job. I just Googled Grangemouth, to look at some stuff and the first option was Wings- The facts as known.Just made me happy 🙂
Rev Stu and everybody that made this thing possible many thanks,
but see your next poll, maybe you could ask:
If Scotland votes NO and stays within the UK, should the UK remain a member of the European Union?
Should Scotland as an Independent Country remain a member of the European Union?
My own experience tells me that you might well get a couple of very different answers from those two!
Thanks again for a real ‘shot in the arm’ of enthusiasm and hope. My only worry is that such info will also be of great value to our opponents. I worry about that but I think in the end, agree with your decision to go ahead and publish.
Have you seen ‘The Five Fingers’? When selling top Allied secret info to the Nazi high command, James Mason denies his support of the Nazi Regime by stating that, ‘showing the man to be be hanged the rope that will form his noose, won’t change the inevitability of the hanging.’
BetterNO are embarked ‘on a one way ticket’ of emotionally negative hopelessness. Those that will decide Scotland’s future are interested in hope and principle. That’s all I am interested in, and all that I am interested in talking about, when I get home!
You are doing a great job Rev. Thank you so much!
The real hard NOs are the Britishers, and there’s only 8% of them. http://www.scotlandscensus.gov.uk/documents/censusresults/release2a/StatsBulletin2A.pdf
Rev,
You’ve done a brilliant job. Seriously …well done! We just wait for the White Paper, receive it, break it all down into major key points, and then it really begins. We take those key points and tell every man, woman and child (or rather …young adult for all those 16 year olds!).
I’m guessing that all of this was your own birthday present to yourself. Well, I hope it cheered you up no end. Now …go and take the night off, and go and have a beer!!
Dave McEwan Hill.
thank you very much for your post over on Bella the other day. I can’t wait for the day that I can begin to ignore all that crap and just let it die the generational death I know it will, with no encouragement, from either side helping pay the bills. Sorry for piling in afterward, but there is a readership on both sides of this stupidity.
I will be in Largs after the 12th of Jan. and would love to meet up and buy you a beer (if you fancy it)? if it’s a no though ( betterNO[t] ), I won’t be offended min (wink).
Thanks again Dave.
So, basically, the in-betweeners read the Guardian, listen to Radio 4 and haven’t yet discovered sites like Wings? (smiley, tongue in cheek thingy).
O/t Doug Daniel,
thanks min and sorry for the delay in answering. I usually hang around the Belmont anyway, is there a usual time and date I should comb ma hair for?
Cheers
HAPPY BIRTHDAY!
sorry for the tardiness Rev.
Sorry O/T and apologies if it’s been mentioned already, but BP filling station near Grangemouth has huge signs up saying ‘Ineos workers pay full price’ or words to that effect.
So much catching up to do here (busy getting organised for my wee Yes shop, staffing all sorted, I think)
Belated Happy Returns, Rev. Stu, Thanks for everything you do here. Very interesting poll results.
With the economy appearing as the main driver in getting the don’t knows over to yes, it might be a nice idea to have a series of economics articles in the New Year to prime up this area with a view to a poll in the spring? Perhaps showcasing a range of perspectives; from small start ups in both urban and rural environments and their differing support needs (financial support structures, micro lending) to the diaspora looking to return/invest in an indy Scotland and its impact on the development of broader trading arrangements.
Maybe something on the long term investment in oil and the future development of new fields, renewables (energy, spin off r&d, industrial policy), high tec hubs, farming, land management and reform, how the ports and waterways of Scotland impact on future maritime and transport policy and possibilities ….. it would make for a varied and interesting series and pull together some key policy areas and economic options, serving to highlight that only independence could really take these things on in order to nurture and sustain a highly effective and dynamic 21st century Scottish economy.
The first poll was more an amateur “lets give it a bash and see what comes out” type of affair, how many questions can we afford, what are we going ask etc?
The MSM/Cutice fobbed it off but never the less they secretly read it and practiced the traditional knee-jerk for the deaf and dumb.
Lessons have been learned, advice sought and what’s come up this time has been an absolute cracker.
Rev – that was a real humdinger, a great job well done, many many thanks.
Apart from the Herald (we know why) the MSM/Beeb/BT will all be digesting the huge mass of poll info and be very busy reading all of the articles from the Rev. This is gonna be hard for them to dismiss out of hand. Jealousy and impotence springs to mind 😉
Alec S. was right, we needed time to sort things out, get a battle structure together, let BT use up its powder and then having learned what to do – go for it.
@Rev, Phenomenal. Thanks for that, I did wonder how things broke down on the undecideds. To be honest I think the undecideds number nearer 50% than 20%, I still think there’s a strong default NO position, and still a little embarrassment to be thought of as even contemplating Independence – that’s for us nutcase extremists.
Regarding percentages and the forthcoming referendum – has a figure been set for mimimum
electorate turnout or (prehaps more insidously) a 40% rule as was imposed on the 1979 referendum?
@Pauls
The referendum is controlled by the Scottish Government, as laid down in the Edinburgh Agreement, so in short, no.
There is no percentage rule.
Everyone on the doorstep knows there is no hardcore No vote. Most of Don’tknows/not sure voters will not Vote or will Vote YES. With the predicted large turn out, the majority will depend on the turn out.
The Devolution vote was 75% YES 25% No
And for tax raising powers 2/3 YES 1/3 No
Slowly, slowly, catchy monkey. Thousands of boots on the ground will win the day. 16 bravehearts out leafleting in Cumbernauld on a wet Saturday in October, almost a year before the poll. BT just cannot compete with this. The critical deciding factor will be getting our people to the polling booth. Chap on doors, have the conversations. Positivity and confidence will sway the ‘don’t knows’ our way.
Very encouraging stats indeed. Wings is coming up fast on Newsnet as an important Indy communications tool. It’s these Panelbase polls which are shining the spotlight on Wings more than anything else. Keep up the good work. I have no doubt that as the White Paper is digested and as we move beyond the Festive Period i.e. by Burns Night the Polls will be showing discernible movement towards YES which will continue all the way up to 18.09.
[…] latest poll data has revealed what many of us had guessed, that the large majority of those undecideds are made up […]