The alternative to growth
Like most Scottish politics nerds we’re going to be spending the morning absorbing the report of the Sustainable Growth Commission. But while we do that, we’ve got more data from our Panelbase poll of English voters earlier this month, on what Scotland could expect in the future if it stays in the UK.
We told them: “Under a system known as the Barnett Formula, the government spends more money per head on people in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland than it does on people in England, because their populations are more thinly spread so it costs more money to provide the same services.”
And this was how they felt about that:
It probably won’t surprise readers massively that opinion split down ideological lines. Remain voters were happy (by a 17-point margin) for Barnett to continue as it is, while Leave voters (by a 20-point margin) wanted money to Scotland, Wales and NI slashed, even knowing that that would mean inferior services for three of the UK’s constituent nations. Tories and UKIP voters wanted cuts (ie superior services for England), while Lib Dem and Labour voters backed the status quo.
Scottish voters can decide for themselves which of those two sides is most likely to hold sway at Westminster in future years as the economic cost of Brexit starts to bite.
Given the current route of travel politically in England?
Decision made and sadly the results of the poll are pretty much as you’d expect.
Really hoping you asked them what they’d do if Scotland subsidizes THEIR economy (which it does!)
This comes down to some basic ignorance.
In an office full of English PhDs … plenty have had to be ‘educated’ on the reality of Scotland and ‘income’.
Fair enough, they pick up quickly that the Westminster bollox (and believe me – its bollox) is spin.
The problem – yeah – I’m here relying on Wings because of this – is the MSM and its lies and disinformation.
But the little inklings you get from this is the lack of a ‘love bomb’ in the #ScotRef … it will be ‘unpleasant’.
Cant wait for Farage + 3 Tories vs SNP on QT during the next one.
I used to own a restaurant in Spain 95% of my customers were English resident pensioners if a cup of coffee was 1 cent cheaper next door, they went next door to save that 1 cent
So figure it out for yourselves
Interesting choice of words in the pre-amble Rev – “it costs more money to provide the same services.”
Usually the Barnett formula is portrayed simply as more spending in Scotland and Wales, and by inference, better services which many would take to include free prescriptions, uni tuition, etc.
Stating that it’s for the same level of services would I think increase the level of support for Barnett in England. I wonder what the support would have been if this sentence had not been included.
Completely correct Dr Jim. Harry Lauder gave us the mean, tightfisted image because he was pandering to English musichall audiences, but in my experience having travelled widely, there are none tighter than the English, and sometimes embarrassingly so.
So the Highlands can just do without proper roads so it can match levels of road maintenance spending in Buckinghamshire. Colonial governance of Scotland to assuage Daily Mail readers.
“future choices on currency could be considered”
walofs
IDIOTS
New Question for English only respondents on Panelbase.
“Under a system known as the Barnett Formula, the government spends more money per head on people in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland than it does on people in England, because they have been exploited for their mineral wealth, iron, steel, copper, slate, coal and other natural resources such as water, oil and gas for centuries.”
Which of these is closest to your opinion?
Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland should just bugger off
or
We would be sad to see Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland leave our precious Union as we wouldn’t be able to exploit them and their populations any more
or
We would be sad to see Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland leave our precious Union as we really, really love them. (Honest, we do! Well … at least, this time!)
stu
If you include procurement spending (which is up to 30% of Government expenditure)the UK spends considerably more per head in England than it does in Scotland. The most heavily supported per head area in the UK is the South East of England. The late and sadly lamented John Jappy was particularly informative on this.
Very good point from Piers Doughty-Brown on Facebook
The real reason that the Tory Party and the Labour Party in Scotland fear independence is that THEY are actually subsidised by their English based parties.
I really don’t know how it could be any clearer. “Unionism” is a Scottish, Welsh and NI concept. The English don’t understand it. To them, the UK is Greater England.
@Athanasius
100% accurate, and that’s why they can’t understand the EU not doing what the UK of England tells them
The notion that they actually don’t rule the world is beyong their comprehension
link to taxresearch.org.uk
link to taxresearch.org.uk
Says it all really. Austerity on steroids ; clowns.
2014 – Stay please Scotland and lead the United Kingdom.
2018 – You’ve had your indy referendum, you’re not getting another. You’re leaving the EU because the UK voted to leave. We’ll give back those devo powers in 7 years…….promise.
2030? – Scotland? Isn’t that the old quaint name you in the northern territory used to have.
Isn’t it amazing how everything tends to split the same way? Or, maybe it isn’t really. Looks like there are two fundamental styles of human behaviour – ‘deil take the hindmaist’ versus ‘let’s care for one another’.
It’s statistical rather than precise division, but it’s a very strong tendency cutting across much more than core politics ie attitudes to Barnett.
1) remain, fair, tolerant, open, looking outward, non-Tory
2) leave, no compassion for vulnerable, me first, xenophobic, Tory, UKIP
My faith in humanity tells me most folks are in the first group.
Everyone in the first group need to work to ensure the second group don’t dominate. We need to be ever vigilant that the second group aren’t allowed to spread their poison.
Also, hard at seems at times, we must also encourage the second group to soften their attitudes and show more compasssion. Why and how did they lose it?
Brexit was the vote for English Independence, so it’s no surprise there is a significant amount of intolerance towards the ‘whingeing subsidy-junkie Jocks’. A lot of pro-Brexit people in England want shot of us. There will be no love bombing in the next Indy ref. That’s good for our cause…
Daily Politics have Pamela Nash from SiU !!
Thd document she has clearly not read is really really bad….obviously just because..!
Just heard that Pamela Nash on TV what a waste of space she is,she has only seen part of the new document and is already spouting rubbish
Only independence will free us of this concern with what England thinks.
Time we stopped caring, stopped being nice and reasonable,stopped acting the little colonial possession. We need to cease being so conventionally British! Although for some that could require brain surgery.
Ruth Davidson tweeting about the great time she had at a Tory women’s fashion show in Edinburgh. Shouldn’t that be a fascism show?
Cheap jibe? Hardly. Consider the attempt to deny democratic rights to Scottish voters. Windrush. The dozens and dozens of Scots Tory councillors and candidates with extreme right roots and links.
The British nationalists have spend decades lying not just the people in England that they subsidise Scotland but also the to Scots that they are subsidy junkies.
So its hardly surprising that their lies are coming back to haunt them, because they are going to have to explain to the people of England as to why they should continue subsiding Scotland.
Athanasius says:
Spot on!
Because of weight of numbers is there is no Union, no unity, no partnership. Unionists shackle themselves to a myth. They delude themselves. At best the non England parts of the UK are allowed some latitude, just as long as they don’t stray to far from the Anglo-norm.
The project has always been the creation of a Greater England with all of these Isles slowly transforming into the image of England.
Well, tough! We now have other ideas!
@Athanasius
…you summed it up very well. They live in that bubble of England/UK/St. George Cross/ Union Flag are all the same thing…Their Empire…cue music and Royal photos
Enjoyed the debate with Andrew Wilson on Daily Politics earlier there. A very well reasoned discussion Andrew, many thanks. Pamela Nash of their Scotland in Union was flapping all over the place, The Sun man was insulting and Zoe fae The Guardian seemed quite ‘with it’ too.
Current No thinking voters should be upgrading to Yes now.
It’s a straight switch, nae mibbies inbetween.
Mon the growth!
SNP should boycott Question Time next week, saying that it is not a fair or balances show and breaches BBC policy.
QT boycotts the SNP every week, so treat them with the same contempt and don’t be afraid to call out their hypocrisy.
For Wales, See Scotland?
Vaughan Roderick, BBC Cymru, Welsh Political Editor.
23 May 2018.
[Translation, WS]
_________
There is no doubt that “Britishizing” is high on the UK Government and Wales Office agenda at present. Here is some flavour of Theresa May’s speech at the Welsh Conservative conference last Friday.
“… the United Kingdom is not a loose federation of semi-detached units. We are one strong Union of nations and people. And an unswerving faith in that Union has always been one of the hallmarks of our Conservative and Unionist Party .. . ”
“… Half the Welsh population lives within 25 miles of the border, and millions of people cross that border in the course of their businesses every year. If you live in Wrexham, Rhyl or Llandudno then Chester, Liverpool and Manchester mean more to your local economy than Cardiff or Swansea North Wales is a key element of the Northern Powerhouse and Alun [Cairns, Secretary of State for Wales] has identified and will realize the potential for a ‘Western Powerhouse’ that brings the economies of south Wales and the south west of England – Cardiff, Newport and Bristol – closer together. ”
Both extracts outline the policy clearly enough. It’s not a secret.
Firstly, it is proposed to strengthen the symbols of the United Kingdom in Wales by, for example, re-branding the new taxation headquarters in Cardiff as the headquarters of the British Government in Wales.
We can expect a lot more. As the European flag disappears from new development advertising boards it is likely that the Union flag will replace it but that is not the only aspect of the policy.
In addition, efforts to make the economic boundary between England and Wales increasingly invisible will be made and it seems that the Welsh Government is comfortable enough with that effort. What else but an attempt to improve the Welsh economy by tying it closer to England are things like Metro north east and the new M4 south of Newport?
Now, there are strong economic arguments for such schemes – but it also has political and cultural implications and I am not convinced that the Welsh Government is as alert to those implications as the Ministers of the Wales Office are.
You know,
If the British Nationalists had spent even half of the time on the WM BREXIT
reportpage that they are going to spend rubbishing the SG’s Growth Commission report, perhaps we wouldn’t be in such a mess.Just sayin. 🙂
Headlines from the growth commission are stark
sterlingisation
No control of monetary policy
Banks leave Scotland and take high end jobs with them
£5bn a year to Westminster
Your poll only confirms what I expected and I have to say it is the most comprehensive one from England side of the fence.
Basically it says become independent Scotland or we will take your resources and money to spend in England.
Oh and Tories UKIP and BNP will rule for next 100 years.
A no brainer decision SNP.
Well, if nothing else it at least indicates some of the English public have not lost their marbles!
The premise of the question is one widely held to be true but is entirely wrong in fact.
The Barnett formula was designed to replace the Goschen Formula in readiness for devolution in 1979.
It is quite sensibly based, namely that increased expenditure will be reflected on a pro rata basis for the devolved areas.
Basically, for simplicity, if we assume Scotland’s population is 10% of England’s and England’s expenditure in a devolved matter was increased by £1 billion then the Scottish Government would get an increase in its budget of £100 million.
That is it, any change in qualifying expenditure is reflected on a pro rata i.e. same amount per head basis for devolved governments.
Where the differential comes in is a legacy matter.
Although the Goschen Formula sensibly also used population estimates when it was first devised in 1888, this was not annually adjusted. So by the time the Barnett Formula was devised in 1978, Scotland’s declining population relative to England’s had resulted in a larger pro rata payment for Scots than for the English.
However, at the time of the Barnett Formula, because each annual settlement would be adjusted on current population ratios that the per head payment’s would rapidly come close together.
Remember that inflation in 1978 was much, much higher than it is today, so that was reasonable assumption at the time. However, with the very low inflation we have seen for the past 10 year+ and consequently small expenditure annual increments, this coming together is taking far longer than predicted by the so called ‘Barnett Squeeze’.
Expenditure allocation is not and has never been on a needs basis.
Here’s a further question for the people of England…
Q100. With regards to the Barnett Formula, which of the following is your perceived understanding of it:
1.
2.
3.
Then ask us, the People of Scotland.
Is Pamela Nash (former political titan and powerhouse MP) still being employed by Scotland in Union?
Wow!
Gfaetheblock at12.59
Utter bollocks of course. You obviously know nothing about how currency woks and you think we are all just as stupid.
There are of course a multitude of shared currency arrangements all round the world working perfectly adequately. Apart from interest rates these arrangements have no effect on the economic policies of the various countries sharing them. There are in fact countries which have a shared currency arrangement AND their own currency for internal use.
The entire world shares the the American dollar (oil)
Oops
I have always understood that Annie Wells was a bit of an eejit. In fact with a tiny vote in the constituency she contested she shouldn’t really be in our parliament.
But I actually felt sorry for her at FMQ yesterday.
The union between England and Scotland is finished as we know. In view of that it would be now better to call unionists something else. Unionist is too dignified or too neutral a term.
Staying in this union would entail Scotland losing democracy. Therefore the term usurper would be a much more accurate one for these people.
Theresa May and little helper Mundell and Westminster want to usurp our rights. The usurpers.
@WelshSion
The one supreme antedote, available to Wales, to being shafted by that British thing is the Welsh language. The lack of such a device in Scotland, one to opt in and out of as the mood suggests, is a major handicap. The Gaelic expression tìr gun canan, tìr gun anam, you’ll require no translation, does spring to mind. A Scottish soul is sometimes a challenge to find.
A country in which Gaelophobia is easily scratched presents many an opportunity for that anglicising British thing to do its dirty work. There is a thing that stalks the Scottish psyche not so different in many aspects from the famous the hubristic English exceptionalism, neither manifestation is appealing.
Archbishop of Dork says:
25 May, 2018 at 1:54 pm
The union between England and Scotland is finished as we know. In view of that it would be now better to call unionists something else. Unionist is too dignified or too neutral a term.
Indeed, let’s start calling them what they are:
British Nationalists
It’s so easy for the “yoons” to call themselves “proud scots”. It would be a lot more difficult for them to deny their British nationalism IMO. Do you really think they could say “I’m not a proud Brit” without squirming?
I wish SNP politicians and YES spokespersons would start using the term all the time. The establishment would hate it, the media would hate it – for good reason.
Time to turn the tables. 🙂
The BREXIT shambles actually gives us a rare opportunity to show the world who the real rabid nats are. We have to start calling them out on this.
One side will be visionary-internationalist, the other will be rabid, insular nationalist.
Last time, the YES campaign was the side portrayed as the loony nats. This time it will be easier to pin that one on the Brexiteers, but we have to start calling them out.
Calling them “yoons” is too nice, and it allows them to hide behind the “proud scot” blanket. “I’m a proud scot and a unionist” crap. Time to expose British nationalism whenever and wherever it rears its ugly head.
Let’s turn the tables. 🙂
The next indy campaign must (among other things) start an all-out war on British Nationalism.
If we want to set the narrative, we have to put them on the defensive. never mind their efforts to rubbish and deflect. With BREXIT, they have never been weaker.
If we don’t, and we allow them to keep saying “I’m a proud scots and a unionist”, then we let them set the agenda (again). And if they set the agenda, we lose (again).
Have been referring to them only as British Nationalists for a few years now, it really does annoy them. They also hate when you point out that there are very few Unionists in England.
And never ever feel sorry for Annie Wells!!!!!
@ Dave McEwan Hill: And to you believe that should the roles be switched, that Annie Wells would feel sorry for you? Not the Tory Way I suggest.
She simply demonstrated why she shouldn’t be at Holyrood as an MSP. Can’t wait to hear her analysis of the Growth Commission report, or will it only the Unelectable Murdo who will provide a “speed reading” critique?
So BritNat reaction bullet points since Growth commission report published:
1. No appetite for Indy2 (‘cos Polls, SNP lost 30% of seats in ‘snap GE’ etc.)
2. Scots knew EU ref was happening in 2014 and they could lose EU citizenship etc.
3. Brexit was UK wide and UK wide result must be respected (‘cos dDemocracy ‘n’ a’ that)
4. Scotland wants to use the £ (GBP) for minimum of 10 years following Independence but NOT ASK TO USE IT, (the very cheek o’ it)
5. Scotland will be tied to rUK (I know Robert P, rUK won’t be the term) fiscal policy/interest rates etc. etc.
6. TMay should refuse Indy2 (‘cos now not the time) etc.
7. ENGLAND SAID NO AND NO MEANS NO, SCOTLAND
Those are yer BritNat arguments against Indy.
Paper thin and fictitious.
Listen to:
Mad Murdo McMad (o’ the Sevco) on RadioShortbreid at 08:15hrs this morning
and
Col. Yadaftie on RadioShortbreid at 13:15hrs approximately this afternoon
Haven’t caught Fluffy, The Last Viceroy of Scotland’s take on it yet but expect it to be the same (ie the BritNat Party line)
If someone can lift them from the BBC website and post them for others to hear I’d be grateful.
The BritNats are rattled.
No slagging off Annie Wells she’s one of our greatest assets
and a great example of her party
Let the woman speak more, c’mon Annie speak right up, represent your party, get her on the telly more often as the voice of Scottish Conservatism
We’ll then maybe start to see a wee change in the good folks who vote Tory changing their minds as Annie the great embarrassment shows us the standards and mettle of the Tory party’s representatives
Rather than write these reports perhaps we should state the obvious- Scotland would actually be MORE independent than most countries in that it would be energy independent.
Sick of the old quips – “how you gonna have a navy/Air Force”
How about we respond “how you gonna fuel yours?”
The thing that bothers me about the BritNat response is:
“No appetite for”,
“No evidence that Scots want a 2nd Indy Ref”,
“Respect the democratic will of the ‘British people'”
and the
“NO consent to be given for a 2nd Indy Ref”
Tells me the BritNats are looking at the same strategy as the Spanish employed against the Catalans.
They know it’s Shit or Bust for them.
If we leave and they lose control over our resources they can’t service their National Debt.
I suspect “Crush the Vile Seps” is the next BritNat Party line.
There was no UK wide Brexit vote, it was a population vote in which Scotland NI and Wales combined couldn’t have outvoted the largest population which is England
That’s not democracy, that’s dictatorship
In an EU wide vote it would be counted country by country not the population of one country outweighing the rest
Now that’s democracy
I cite Wallonia as an example of EU Democracy
I said several times before if England voted for a monkey the rest of the UK would have to accept it because that’s what England calls democracy
In technical terms it’s called *Thurs mair o us so get stuffed the rest o yeez*
Dave mcewan hill
Interested in what countries are running dual currencies? Comparable to Scotland?
I said at 2:53 pm it wisnae RadioShortbreid she was on.
Col. Yadaftie on RADIO 4 at 13:15hrs approximately this afternoon.
If someone can lift them from the BBC website and post them for others to hear I’d be grateful.
Abulhaq says:
25 May, 2018 at 1:58 pm
You’ll be aware that I make a living out of Cymraeg (my mother tongue!) and have an MA in Celtic. 😀
Yours,
– Professional Welsh, French and English translator, teacher and editor and cybernat.
“cenedl heb iaith, cenedl heb gallon”
back at ya!
Dr Jim says:
Unfortunately all commodities are priced in dollars worldwide and it is now under strain.The $ has been the dominant currency for so long. However, there are moves afoot, and is actually happening,that many other countries are beginning to trade directly with each other and bypassing the $.
The current position is why the $ is considered strong in the world, but as I say, the writing is on the wall for the US$, it is also a fact that Americans benefit so much in this situation.
The US is not happy at all that countries are now employing other ways to trade without having to touch the dollar at all.
If this continues to grow, the American lifestyle will suffer badly, they have been making so much money from their position.
They do not like this growing situation one bit. However they cannot stop it. (this is just a little of what is going on there are other things. )
An complete and utter disaster written by an idiot.
A sad day for Scotland that has put independence back by a decade at least.
All I can say is I hope it was nothing more than a PR stunt to try and get the vote, because it certainly isn’t based on economics.
If it was ever put in place Scotland would be sold off to the highest bidder.
An article from Newsnet that gives the positive case for Scotland as an attractive investment destination for business. Relevant on the day The Growth Commission is published.
link to newsnet.scot
An example of Scotland, and in particular, its University sector leading in innovation.
link to dundee.ac.uk
Finally the currency issue. An article from Won a published during the first indyref. Panama and how using another country’s currency has not held it back.Useful ammo in countering what will be the attack points of BT MKII
link to wingsoverscotland.com
This is exactly the shite that happens when you put people in charge who think we are still on a gold standard and that a floating exchange rate operates like a fixed one.
Fucking imbeciles !
I’d love to know what arsehole of economists they went to for this advice.
Some Oxbridge wanker probably.
Richard Murphy is ripping it a new arsehole as we speak.
No wonder and complete and utter disgrace !
Now we can wait for the Westminster parties to point out to us all the benefits of staying in their little Union.
I myself cannot think of a single one, other than a National Border, which I have no worries over whatsoever.
Blydi brilliant! ????????
No I haven’t read the report and only gleamed that which I have heard on the radio or read online.
With regards to currency I can’t help but feel we have failed to remove the big stick that they beat us about the head last time. Far too much detail provided that we will constantly hear the arguments on telly and in the papers.
I get the feeling that this wasn’t aimed at voters but at the money markets. The money markets won’t win our Independence that’s for sure. I don’t give a toss about the currency and I’d guess even the uninformed No voter doesn’t either. But they do watch the telly!
The problem is it will once again be used as a massive issue as a reason not to vote for Independence by the bias media. We really didn’t have to do that. Printing that everybody in Scotland will be £4100 better off as well is complete bollocks too and shouldn’t have been done IMO.
Anyway this is not the final chapter, I’m sure other voices will now be heard. The details about currency are totally meaningless on the day of Independence, we have more important things to achieve. Only after Independence should the Scottish people have to make those choices.
That’s the whole point, it’ll be OUR choice.
It’s out there now and will be interesting to see the media response. there will be NONE of the good stuff and every paper and TV/Radio show will talk about the currency.
We’ll see, and who cares what the currency is anyway? Not me.
Bloody hell and I thought we were a cult who never criticised the Party or Supreme Leader?
😉
Purpose was to stimulate debate.
Looks like it’s working.
It is a paper on what Indy Scotland COULD do.
NOT what it will do.
Richard Murphy nails it for me
The 354 page report of the Scottish Growth Commission was published this morning. But you don’t need to read it all. I admit I had an advance copy and as I read it last night I remained vaguely optimistic until I reached page 47. Then I knew the SNP has a disaster on its hands and that if it was to become independent on the basis of this report the last thing that the people of Scotland would enjoy would be growth.
That’s because on page 47 the report says: “The Commission recommends that the currency of an independent Scotland should remain the pound sterling for a possibly extended transition period.”
Admittedly it then adds: “A future Scottish Government should put in place the arrangements and financial infrastructure that would support a move to an independent Scottish currency at such time as this was considered appropriate for the Scottish economy.”
Which is a sop, because most depressing is this comment, which comes next: “What happens with respect to currency the day before an independence vote would happen the day after and continue to happen until such time as the elected Scottish Government seeks to do something differently.”
In other words, this Commission recommends that Scotland use the currency created by another country. That will mean five things.
The first is that Scotland will have no control over its money supply after independence.
Second, it will have no control over its interest rate.
Third, if London decides to trash the rUK economy to support The City, or some other cause, Scotland will go down with it.
Fourth, all the negative impacts of Brexit will be imported directly into the Scottish economy.
Fifth, Scotland will effectively have to earn the currency of another state to service its debts.
All of these are devastating decisions by a Commission that is supposedly dedicated to independence. As that list shows, by choosing sterling as the Scottish currency Scotland would have no effective hope of achieving that status: it would remain enslaved by the pound and tied to the apron strings of London.
Depressingly, in support of their proposal the Commission says: “We note that this was the approach taken by Ireland for an extended period, albeit in a different period of history.”
I know enough about Irish economic history to describe the consequence of this policy succinctly: it was a disaster that oppressed Ireland economically for decades.
I thought my mood could not go lower, but then it did. I read the recommended objectives for macroeconomic management of the Scottish economy in paragraph B12, which says Scotland should:
Target a deficit value of below 3 per cent within 5 to 10 years.
National debt should not increase beyond 50% of GDP and should stabilise at that level.
Borrow only for public investment in net terms over the course of the cycle.
During the transition period real increases in public spending should be limited to sufficiently less than GDP growth over the business cycle to reduce the deficit to below 3% within 5 to 10 years. At trend growth and target inflation rates this would mean average annual cash spending increases of above inflation in contrast to the Scottish budget experience under the UK regime of recent years and that scheduled for the remainder of the current planning period.
In other words, the Scottish economy will, after independence, be run to keep the London money markets happy.
The ability of a country with its own currency to issue debt to finance growth will be foregone by Scotland not having its own currency. Forget full employment then. But worse, what the Commission is saying by adopting these objectives, which will cruise all others in the report, that Scotland should welcome austerity in its place. That’s what a deficit of 3% is guaranteed to deliver. This is literally importing George Osborne’s economics into Scotland.
Except its worse than that because spending will be cut to meet this target. This is what the fourth bullet point means. The new government of Scotland would, then, crush the economy for years to keep the money markets of London happy.
And Gordon Brown’s fiscal rule, that clearly worked so well before the crash of 2008, is exactly what the third bullet point describes. When the Commission stops importing Tory economic incompetence it supports Labour’s failed policies instead.
Finally, and for good measure, the goal of keeping debt to 50% of GDP means investment in anything in the new Scotland will just be a pipe dream.
I could have gone on to plough through the rest of this report, but why bother? Any quantity of graphs, and any number of comparisons with states broadly similar in size to Scotland are utterly irrelevant if this Commission that is supposed to be about growth has decided to remove any chance that Scotland could use monetary policy to control its economy, and has crushed any chance of a fiscal stimulus by committing Scotland to decades of austerity with the sole purpose of keeping the old oppressor in London happy.
The Scottish Growth Commission has proved to be a fantastic policy agent for the financial elite. But for those who hoped for a bright independent future it offers nothing but despair.
This Commission’s suggestions are a disaster for Scotland, the SNP and the cause of independence. The Commission has proved itself the slave of pre-crash economics and a proponent of everything that is oppressive about neoliberalism. It’s really hard to imagine how it could have been much worse or more out of kilter of what I sense the people of Scotland want.
This is a sorry day for Scotland.
England’s economy will self-destruct after brexit. An independent Scotland should seek to establish its own currency as soon as possible. No more than 5 years.
It’s clear now there is only two options for our MP’s & MSP, they are either pro-Scotland or pro-England, there is no longer a mid way position.
They either decide to stay in the UK and accept the damage that Brexit will do to Scotland or remove Scotland from this union and try and achieve better trading arrangements with the EU. Country or vassal state, these are now the only options on the table
@ Jockanese Wind Talker
How many more years do we need to get it right ?
What we could do has been debated for decades now. This was the time to say.
Right this is what we are going to do !
It’s clear they have no idea what to do. They are the Scottish version of the brexiteers.
@Derek Henry
…a very technical and detailed review. You are obviously a speed reader and technical expert. However “It’s shite” seems a little short on information.
I concur with other posters. I have a lot of black cab drivers in my family in our capital. They confirm that the nationality who are the tightest when it comes to tips are the English. Make of that what you will.
It’s not abour currency; it’s about urgency.
Thepnr says:
25 May, 2018 at 4:01 pm
Printing that everybody in Scotland will be £4100 better off as well is complete bollocks too and shouldn’t have been done IMO.
MMM. Maybe not – Yes it gives the MSM a chance to howl about it, but that’s the point. The more talking about it the better, and let’s face it, the MSM won’t cover it out of fairness and balance. They will only cover it if they think there is an angle of attack. Let’s dupe them into giving it max publicity (good or bad). People will make their own minds up – if they hear about it. Most folk won’t bother to do the research but 4100 quid will ring in people’s ears if you let the MSM over-egg the pudding and do the heavy lifting for us.
The leave campaign spouted loads of BS, and —- they won!
It’s 4-dimensional chess. 🙂
“Independence will cost each of you £500 per year.” (Better Together, 2014).
“BREXIT will cost us each £900 per year.” (Mark Carney, BoE, 2018)
Do the sums.
@ Clootie
Richard Murphy nails it above.
It could not be any clearer we would be exactly like Greece of the Eurozone using a foreign currency.
A complete and utter disgrace a neoliberal wet dream !
It actually looks like it has been written by somebody who does not want us to have our own currency but would rather we joined the EU.
As Scots voted to stay in the EU I would have expected a pro-Euro tendency in this report.
Planning to join England in Brexit wonderland, sharing the same currency and sharing the same island etc? A prelude to a sell out on independence? A rejigged Union perhaps?
I am fast losing faith in this lot.
@Luigi
Yeah I hear you and it has it’s merit, last thing I want though is to be accused of talking bullshit when we’re trying to get across facts.
What’d you think will be price of oil or beans is Jan 2020. No idea is the appropriate answer. My point we should talk about how we could achieve growth much better than it would be by remaining part of the UK. That should be “easy” but putting an actual figure on that, £4,100? Then not so much.
It’s a total guess and doesn’t sit well with me.
I don’t wan’t to be accused of believing in Unicorns though I do believe, unchaining the Scottish Unicorn is our only goal.
For a calm perspective:
link to weegingerdug.wordpress.com
A few posts up there – I’m sure they know who they are. I read, mega-lolled and scrolled on by. “Scotland’s shite” nawbag numbnuts. GTF.
All of the Growth and Stability pact of the neoliberal EU is embedded in there. Even worse instead of 3% of GDP and 60% they’ve made it 2% and 50%
Worse austerity than Greece and we are not even doing it with a gun pointed out our heads.
Tragic !
This has to be a PR stunt to get Tories to votes YES. Nobody can be stupid enough to write this keek !
The BritNat Trolls are already on full attack mode tonight.
They must be rattled. 🙂
Aw, is that your weekend spoiled, eh? Stuck at the desk for another 48 hours. Too bad – my heart bleeds. 🙂
@Clootie
“a very technical and detailed review. You are obviously a speed reader and technical expert. However “It’s shite” seems a little short on information.”
You don’t need to be a speed reader. You can tell near the start of the paper where it is going. It is built on neoliberal principles. When i see 3% deficits and debt ceilings in there I don’t need to read on. It’s obvious that it has been compiled by people who don’t understand how the aggregate economy works. Nor do they understand the HUGE difference between being a currency user and a currency issuer.
It’s the same reason I don’t read past the first paragraphs in Kevin Hague’s blog. It’s based on fallacious economics.
Makes me realise it was probably pointless going round different branches talking about why scotland needed its own currency.
Still I got more done in the garden today.
What a day. The SNP release a positive study into how Scotland’s economy and prosperity can best be grown, and all the unionists fruitcakes open their gobs.
If we paid any heed to them, the whole of Scotland would be suicidal. ‘No you can’t Scotland’, ‘Scotland couldn’t manage’, ‘How on earth will anybody manage without Barnett subsidy’, and so on and on it goes. Negativity heaped upon negativity. Then to top it all, the man-genius, called Iain Gray (aye that one, who didn’t know where the money for a Scottish oil fund would come from), has even asserted we’d all end up eating gruel.
What an utter bunch of f*****g unionist diddies, slavishly devoted to an England that doesn’t give a flying f*** about what they or any of their uber unionist ‘scots’ think. No ambition for Scotland, no desire to improve Scotland, no urge to make life better for Scots, just slavish devotion to London rule. Let England decide what is best for Scotland, is what they think and say.
Today made it very clear, unionism is just a charade, covering a bunch of frankly pathetic Scots, who cannot seem to think for themselves.
@Derek Henry
Normally spelt keech! Take it easy I’d say, it is what it is and probably best that it’s discussed and explored fully now.
I’m an engineer and not an economist or currency expert as you seem to be and my disappointment is solely with regard to the possibility that the SNP have not completely removed that weapon from their armoury.
People and how we treat them matter much more to me and we can make that change with or without a shared currency once we have complete control of all Scottish revenues and taxes.
No doubt my naivety shines through to someone much mire knowledgeable. Guess what though for me it’s still a proposal not from the Scottish Government but from the SNP, much discussion to be had yet I’d guess.
And see at the end of the day none of it will matter much after Independence, Scotland will be a place you’d want to live and many will prove it by coming here and Scotland will be booming making all those already living here better off.
Scotland has the greatest potential ever of any country to make a great success of Independence than any other country has ever had. All of them, we have the lot, not a prediction but a fact.
” Setting up a new independent Scottish state would cost £450 million over five years. “
IS THAT ALL!? Has to be the bargain of the millennium.
But here’s the really really important thing to think about …. how much will it cost Scotland to stay in a Brexitised UK compared to being independent?
There’s a lot more to being independent than money and economics, yes, but staying in the UK is looking like the lose lose lose option.
Thepnr says:
Indeed. Scotland won the lottery of nations but so far has been letting others steal our winnings.
And therein lies exactly why there is so much opposition to Indy from London.
Thepnr,
The weapon last time around was the sterling currency union, not the pound. Any country in the world can use the pound, you don’t need to ask London. That is as a means to later move on to a different currency if it works better.
A very good piece by wee ginger dug;
I Hope Paul doesn’t mind if I quote a wee part;
“The key message here is that post-independence Scotland can continue to use the pound. Scotland will use the pound. Scotland is not asking for permission.
The plan of the Growth Commission report to unilaterally stick with sterling in the initial years of independence doesn’t please those who want a new Scottish currency immediately, but it removes that nawbaggery from the British nationalist armoury. It provides a simple and easy answer to the “What currency are you going to use?” jibe. We are not asking for their permission or cooperation. We’re just going to do it anyway. That all by itself puts the independence movement in a stronger position.”
SOURCE :link to weegingerdug.wordpress.com
I think the Iain Gray MSP tweet encapsulates what to expect from the British Nationalists this weekend, Scotland is crap, you will be bankrupt, just read everything I said in 2014 nothing has changed.
He finishes with – There is another way. I think he means Scotlandshire and their desire for ermine, that seems to be the main ambition for Scotland.
After the disaster of the last two years they still think it’s better to hang on to their betters coattails. No matter how bad Brexit is they will remain British first.
Calm down folks, this report isn’t for us, this report is for the scavengers and the UK government to chew their faces off arguing over it
In its current form the SNP members will throw this out on its arse, does anybody seriously think for one nano second that the SNP are going to buy themselves out of the UK by giving the UK money for debt the UK incurred whether Scotland had a say in it or or not then *fiscally transferred* what they say we owe them but somehow all the money that Scotland contributes to the maintainance of Armies Navys Air forces bombs and bullets and Tridents and overseas territory maintainance grants NI and Wales maintainance are just going to be forgotten about
Oh and we’ll be responsible for Pensions on day one, not a hope in hell
The SNP will not countenance this, it’s a Yap document to keep the talkers talking, coz if it was really the real document it’d be goodbye SNP and they know it
I’m not by any stretch of anybody’s imagination an economist but I know I’ll never vote to give Westminster money, who do they think we are, the Labour party, so NO I don’t believe this is real
All these numbers. All these frothing British nationalists saying “We cannae ’cause we’re Scotland and we’re shite at everything.”
Oh FFS. Would you believe it, eh? Scotland – unique int he world that it can’t sort out its own currency. Unique in the world that it cannot make a steady transition to fully governing its own affairs. Why is this? Why is Scotland so fucking uniquely among nations to be unable to do what many of them have already done? Somebody – fucking ANYBODY ell me EXACTLY WHY Scotland cannot emulate what many of those countries have done before us?
Fuck the figures. Just tell me WHY WE CAN’T?
Anyone? Well?
O/T
Given his latest utterances and the fact that he is touted as a future Tory Leader is it not a fact that Gavin Williamson is far more dangerous than the Brexiteer fanatics who usually hog the limelight.
Just look at his mad eyes.
Unfortunately, the term ‘tartan Tories’ may come back into circulation as a result of this document.
Btw what has happened to the constitutional crisis, many were hoping for, as a result of the Scottish parliament’s rejection of Westminster Brexit terms.
The Union was and is a bum deal. We need to be rid of it. Every effort ought to be focussed on that end. Young Scots expect more action.
Proud Cybernat at 539pm,
I totally agree. Unionists like to tell Scotland that it is the ONLY country in the world that could not manage its own affairs. Straight off, that is a massive insult to Scotland and its people.
The oddest position of all are the red Tories. They positively support independence all over the world, including in ALL Ireland, but absolutely insist that Scotland is the ONLY country for which independence will not work.
Meanwhile Davidson said something today, but I can’t remember what it was… something about no
surrenderreferendum, or something. Clearly not able to add anything to the debate. a one trick pony, and its getting boring.I see the trolls are already busy… trying to sow disagreement and arguments. Haha. Just ignore them.
If you drill down into regional spending in England the South West gets a similar figure to Scotland. That got me thinking. Cornwall has its own language and launched a rebellion – I think in the 1700s. Does the British state impoverish it’s Celtic/ Cornish extremities by under investment then doles out the Barnett crumbs to imply these ares are too poor and couldn’t survive themselves?
It’s a cunning plan methinks!
One of the things that’s positive about the indy movement today as compared to 2012-2014 is that the grassroots movement now has a greater capacity to establish its own assessments and criticisms
link to twitter.com
link to soundcloud.com
@ Thepnr
I know but the SNP should have either
a) Understood this report and distanced themselves from it.
b) Got experts in so it was bullit proof.
They say it is start of a debate but they never ask the right people when they debate. They do it amoung themselves which keeps them in a failed GROUPTHINK !
I’m just so angry because this was a fantastic oppertunity to get it right. Show that we got it right.
The SNP have blown it and now the rest of us have to spend the next 2 years sorting it out when we could be further advanced at getting what we all want and that’s independence.
it’s not a sif we haven’t been here before with the currency question and they still haven’t learned from their mistakes.
The best thing to do now is for the SNP to distance themselves as far away as possible away from this tosh.
Would it be awful of me to say I don’t give a flying whatsit about this report. My own position has not altered one iota since yesterday and will not until we have our independence.
Those on here who have ‘concerns’ and wish to promote discord can do as they wish, I will still have my sights set on the sunny uplands!!
There is a lot going on just now, both here and in Westmonster, so this report isn’t THAT important(I still think the power-grab is shaping up nicely and will be vastly more influential).
Derek Henry seems very unhappy.
Nicola needs to start the campaign this Autumn so we can have the vote in March 2019, I can see no good reason to delay any longer.
It’s neoliberalism on steriods.
It’s austerity on steriods.
And we are still currency slaves.
Who in the right minds are going to vote for that apart from fiscal Conservatives ?
This report has made it even more harder to get the correct narrative across to those that are still undecided than it was yesterday and yesterday was difficult.
The currency debate is set to get very hot, perhaps that’s what was intended, get people talking. IMO the idea of having a currency union,with probably the most malicious, venal and corrupt government on the planet is ludicrous. It may serve Westminster needs, the pound tanks if we don’t prop it up, but it’s a serious risk for us.
This is a report, not policy or a manifesto, in the end we get to decide. Whatever term me are agreed between negotiators will have to be ratified by referendum. My advice to the SG, start now preparing for a separate currency, even if its just the Scottish Pound, because a shared currency is going to get knocked on the head.
It’s up to us though, to let the SG/SNP, that a currency union is not wanted or needed.
“and from the wider Yes family”
Nicola Sturgeon has confirmed a series of National Assemblies over the summer will debate the SGC report’s recommendations…
The Yes movement is powered by people from all walks of life, so we’ll be inviting folk along from across civic Scotland and from the wider Yes family.
link to twitter.com
link to wecan.scot
Kirstene Hair MP says …. ” It is simply wrong for politicians to try and reverse referendum results they disagree with. “…. she refers to IndyRef2.
Hair and a Hell of of a lot of other BritNats should ask themselves … why did they completely reverse the result of the 2014 referendum?
Scotland voted for membership of the EU, an equal partnership, respect for the views and policies of Holyrood, far more powers, Holyrood permanency.
What did we get? Smith, Brexit, Sewell cast aside, court challenges to Holyrood decisions, thieving of powers.
So who reversed the decision of 2014, then?
IMO a yes vote in IndyRef2 and Indy might be closer to what was promised for a NO vote in 2014 than what we are getting! Now there’s a radical thought.
Doesn’t really matter what the report said today, no doubt it was going to be rubbished anyway. Even had me picking faults with it when I haven’t even read it. Much like most commentators in the media today then I would guess.
When I was a still a student studying engineering we had this interesting lecturer who had spent more of his working life in industry than in teaching. He had a really good wee story about manufacturing products and getting approval.
Any new consumer product coming on the market had to have the EU kite mark, the quality and safety had been proven. These test by the authorities would take months and meanwhile the factory was gearing up to manufacture the new model.
What the factory wanted to avoid at all costs was a flaw in the design that meant the kite mark was rejected until x, y or z was changed. This would have major cost implications and changes required on the manufacturing equipment.
So he told me, “they are always going to find a flaw and doesn’t matter even if it was perfect. Their job is to find the flaw and that’s what their paid for.”
Then he let the cat out of the bag “So we put a couple of flaws in the design for them to find, one’s we knew we could handle and that wouldn’t halt the production or involve massive change on the factory floor.
So everybody was happy, the factory got approval for the new design after the “flaws” identified had been fixed, the examiners had done their jobs diligently and the customer with the new washing machine was happy.
The moral is, any new plan can have a flaw, that’s OK as long as it can be handled without major disruption to the grand plan.
wonder why the ruk’s haven’t been able to produce comparable document on brexit. Nope not a sausage or even a German Frankfurter.
We should keep pressing them
“possibly extended transition period”, possibly as much as a couple of weeks.
Why was the question not asked about cutting UK Government spending per head in the SE of England to the same level as the rest of the country?
@sassenach 6:08pm
Agreed. Britnat power-grabbing is more important than this report. Likewise the utter disaster brexit will be for Scotland.
Disreporting hatchet job on the report, as expected.
Reporting Scotland like Derek Henry just not happy. Scotland being put down in typical unionist style, all about the pound and get on with the day job.
They really are scared and the unionist alliance will do everything they can to refuse a Scottish Independence Referendum. Hope the Scottish government has a cast iron legal case or they will be tied up in the courts until the next Scottish parliamentary elections in 2021.
@Rev Stu,
Now I may be wrong but it is my understanding that the real reason Scotland, Wales & N.I. have different per capita levels of funding has nothing to do with needs. It has everything to do with different devolved functions given to the individual devolved parliaments/assemblies.
Northern Ireland, having more devolved functions, gets a higher per capita Barnett formula grant than Scotland. Wales, with fewer devolved functions gets a lower per capita grant than both N.I. and Scotland. In point of fact as N.I. is smaller and more compact that Scotland that gives the lie to Barnett being needs based.
I was informed, many years ago, that it was a Westminster establishment myth that there was a substantial needs component in Barnett.
The sole Barnett formula concept is that Westminster devolves a few functions to their UK dominion countries and, as those UK dominion countries had no tax raising powers of their own Westminster took finding away from the UK Ministries that previously administer the devolved functions and devolved that cash to the devolved country’s parliaments.
My insider source in the Scottish Holyrood parliament was a extremely well known MSP. and former MP. unfortunately now deceased. She said this Needs based component was dreamed up by unionist MPs & MSPs to mislead and cause fear, division & doubt across the UK countries.
Not that it makes a blind bit of difference to the poll figures you quote but may go some way to demonstrate that the needs based pish did the job Westminster hoped it would do as the myth is still extant right across the United Kingdom.
@TheWasp says: 25 May, 2018 at 11:21 am:
“Completely correct Dr Jim. Harry Lauder gave us the mean, tightfisted image because he was pandering to English musichall audiences, but in my experience having travelled widely, there are none tighter than the English, and sometimes embarrassingly so.”
Actually Sir Harry was exploiting a linguistic difference between English and Lowland Scots.
That linguistic difference is the definition of the word “canny”.
In essence the English take that to describe meanness but the Lowland Scots understanding of the term is rather different.
Go check out the Scots Language dictionary for yourself.
All the moaning from those who can’t accept no launching a new currency on day one seem not to get the plain English in setting the timetable to suit Scotland.
The plan is use Sterling whilst all the mechanics of floating our own are put in place.
Then the most probable next step would be to peg our currency to Sterling.
Next would be allowing it to rise and fall on its own.
It’s only at that point would we be able to start the process of joining the Euro.
The key point is that the timing of each phase should as far as possible benefit Scotland rather than tie us to a rigid timetable despite evidence that proceeding to the next phase on schedule would cause harm.
Launching a brand new currency on day one is a near guaranteed way of having your shirt taken off your back.
@galamcennalath
Kirstene Hair MP says …. ” It is simply wrong for politicians to try and reverse referendum results they disagree with. “
She could of course mean the 2016 vote as this is what politicians have done to the 1970’s vote. Of course she doesn’t and doesn’t see the anomaly I suspect.
@Gfaetheblock says: 25 May, 2018 at 3:07 pm:
“Interested in what countries are running dual currencies? Comparable to Scotland?”
I’ll just bet you are, “Interested”, awa an dae yer ain reserch and stop spouting shite.
@Derek Henry says: 25 May, 2018 at 3:49 pm:
“Richard Murphy is ripping it a new arsehole as we speak.
No wonder and complete and utter disgrace !”
How about you do other than spout utter pish, Derek?
Let’s have s few specifics, Derek. All you have done here so far is shout down something you seem rather ignorant about. Any fool can do such histrionic claptrap. Either make cogent arguments and debate issues of piss off.
Saw Pamela Nash (ex Labour MP) on TV ignoring the power grab and claiming we are now the most powerful devolved parliament in the whole world.
Obviously on the BritNat payroll.
Aye, currency is it? Reports is it? We’ve hud aipples aff thon cairt afore.
As ‘Proud Cybernat’ asked “Why not?” There is one answer and only one. There is absolutely no reason whatsoever Scotland cannot be an independent country except for its people.
The form of that country, its economy and its infrastructure, its trade and its growth, its successes and failures are inherently those of any Independent nation and subject to change and the vision of its people.
There are some apoplectic if a newly minted Scotland is not to be delivered free, low mileage, highly polished with a clean leather smell and a magic tree hanging from the fucking mirror.
An Independent Scotland is a worthless transition for them because, uniquely, Scotland has not produced a blueprint to deliver a country which no other nation on earth has managed – Absolutely mint shiny at point of delivery. No debt, endless prosperity a currency so hard all nations on earth are in thrall, so powerful all nations live in peace through the love emanating from its benign and perfect golden arsehole. The perfection of statehood.
Oh and if it could be arranged for one to be chauffeured to a polling station with a Montblanc provided please, not a scabby crayon thank you ever so much.
If that’s your criteria for independence then fuck you, you deserve nothing and shall receive it in abundance.
On the subject of growth, the UK’s growth in the first quarter of this year was confirmed at 0.1% – the worst for some time. Strangely not much being said about it by auntie.
Link to report in the Guardian today:
link to archive.is
The pound is also falling against the dollar
@Iain mohr 7:40pm
Well said.
@Jockanese Wind Talker says: 25 May, 2018 at 4:03 pm:
“Bloody hell and I thought we were a cult who never criticised the Party or Supreme Leader?”
Aye!
Richt!
Jackanese Wind Talker, but some who post here are not members of the cult – they just pretend to be so as to cause trouble.
So far I haven’t seen any real thought through arguments either here on Wings or quoted from the SMSM and some of the condemnation spewing forth from the Yooniverse cannot be based upon a thorough examination of the paper – there certainly has not been time to examine it in depth yet here they are screaming and dancing on the spot in utter frustration. I believe this to be a sign the Yooniverse is very, very worried and scared right out of their wee cotton socks.
“It is a paper on what Indy Scotland COULD do.”
Aiblins it micht be mair like, Whit Scotland micht thraitin tae dae.
My take on this is that the paper has struck a big yoonivers nerve and they are very much over reacting through blind panic and fear with yooniversal threats.
If the SG wanted to get a negative reaction then they have succeeded beyond their wildest expectations.
Golfnut @ 6.14pm
As I understand it a currency union is not being proposed this time around. The proposal is to use the pound which is a fully tradeable currency which any country can use without entering into a formal currency union.
@Derek Henry says: 25 May, 2018 at 4:16 pm:
“Richard Murphy nails it for me”
That’ll be because he agrees with your overblown and obviously panic stricken views, Derek.
Now I’ve no intention of going through that long and mostly irrelevant screed of pish so will just make an observation and ask you a very, very, simple question.
First of all you are claiming that the SG and their advisors don’t know what they are talking about. I can only assume you base your claims upon comparing what the published paper claims with the corresponding yooniverse economic accomplishments to date.
That being so, (if it is so), then perhaps you might explain for those of us not up to your claimed level of understanding of the yoonivers’s great success in running the yoonivese’s ecpnomy.
For example I read a wee article yesterday about the increasing chances of the common people in the, so called, United Kingdom now living on a street that contained an over £1,000,000 property. The claim being that there were now more millionaires in the United Kingdom than ever before. In the same publication they were talking about the Westminster Establishments austerity measures to sort out the yoonivers economy.
Now excuse me for not having your level of understanding of the yooniversal economy of the United Kingdom but if Westminster’s understanding of economics is so great then how does it come about that there are now more millionaires in the UK while at the same time the statistics prove that while the austerity measures to fix the UK economy have been in place the wealthy ones among us have more than doubled their personal wealth and there are more of them now?
How can these wealthy people be getting more numerous and be more than doubling their personal wealth while people are dying by being homeless on UK streets, when people are dying from lack of medical care as the UK’s several independent National Health Services cannot cope? How come that the English, Welsh and N.Irish crime figures are shooting up so fast and the police services say they are underfunded?
Yet the Scottish Governments you claim that do not understand how the economy works has, far and away, the best SNHS statistics, The best and falling crime figures and is outperforming those governed by people you claim do understand modern economics. And another thing, how come that the United Kingdom you claim to understand modern economics has a national debt that is larger than ever before and increasing so fast that if it could fuel a rocket to the stars we would have got there long ago?
So the fact is that the SG is outperforming every other United Kingdom country including the one that as no other parliament that Westminster runs directly.
Can you explain, Derek, why you claim Westminster understands modern economics but is in such a dire mess while the best performing UK devolved government doesn’t understand modern economics?
Shurerly shome mishtake, shomwhere.
Either that or you are full of pish.
what Derek alludes to is that if you are capped at a defcit level of 3%, once you reach that level you can no longer act (say in a recession) to prime your economy.
The ‘saving to reduce the deficit’ is a neoliberal idea which doesn’t work in practice. It conflates the economy with household finances which is completely 180 degrees wrong.
In a national conomy, one persons spending is another’s income. If we reduce spending, we reduce national income. Greece reached its 3% deficit limit but wasn’t (under eurozone rules) allowed to add more money to its economy. Under the fallacious ideas of neoliberalism it was told it had to make cuts. As I mention above reducing total spending reduces total income. This has led Greece into a downward spiral enforced by the Troika.
Any borrowing done by Scotland using the £ will effectively be done in a foereign currency which is expensive since investors know we don’t have a central bank which can supply limitless amounts of the currency.
The worst debt is foreign denominated debt.
There’s so much more but that’s all I have time for now.
@Derek Henry says: 25 May, 2018 at 3:39 pm:
So it’s SNP BAAAAD! Again says, Derek:-
“An complete and utter disaster written by an idiot.”
Are you a YES Yet, Derek?
Mr peffers
One of the principles of this website is that you reference your claims. DMH made a statement, so I asked for his references. No response. You got aggressive (as per usual) so I did my research.
Grim reading
link to qz.com
Am I still spouting shite?
@Derek Henry says: 25 May, 2018 at 4:53 pm:
” … Nobody can be stupid enough to write this keek !”
So why are you writing it, Derek?
Is it just a case of never missing a chance to yell, “SNPBAAAD!”, over and over again?
It won’t work you know. No one but an anti-SNP numptie would claim that they, and the Westminster Establishment were the all time experts on modern economic thinking when the UK government has gifted the United Kingdom the most devastating national debt in British history and has failing services in every department. Is actually killing off the old, sick, disabled and just poor or jobless people while bragging there are now more millionaires in the UK than ever before. Yet also claim that this absolutely worse government ever to gain power at Westminster knows better than the best performing devolved parliament in the UK – You are a fraud, Derek and that’s putting it mildly.
Am wondering if Silly Arse Sillers wiz part of that commission Pay Westminster in their dreams .
Iain mhor – absolutely spot on.
Think I’m going to steal it for a wee leaflet or two.
@ronnie anderson
Any numbers on the Dumfries march Ronnie?
and I’ll see you there watch fur ma wee fishin rod wae ma flag wavin
Irish Free State used the £ sterling from 1922 to 1928. When it introduced it’s own currency pegged to £ Sterling 1-1. (Punt). Until 1999 when it joined the Euro. It also had one of the fastest growing economies in the world. ‘Irish tiggger’ until financial crash 2008 which it recovered from faster than the UK.
The Irish Free State does not have Oil & Gas or a massive whisky and fishing industry. It is more equal, fair and cohesive than the UK and has higher benefits and OAP. It has also benefitted by EU membership.
Poverty rates in IR 15%. Poverty rates NI 20%
Thing is, keeping the pound is a political choice, now everybody will argue about perhaps not keeping the pound. Which is what I suspected we want to hear.
Rick H Johnston @ 19:34,
That just possibly might be, Rick, because PN is currently head honchette at SiU, after having served her time as bag-carrier to Magrit Curran then Jimbo the Murph. (Not too hard to figure out her allegiance to the BritNat Establishment from that potted history, and even leaves one pondering just how deep it does go.)
There is no occasion therefore in which she cannot be relied upon to attack and seek to diminish Scottish self-confidence, thus a regular rentaquote for the Beeb, just like Ruth the Mooth (as on R4 lunchtime today).
Hi Dan Huil at 4:16 pm.
You typed,
“England’s economy will self-destruct after brexit. An independent Scotland should seek to establish its own currency as soon as possible. No more than 5 years.”
I’m with you on that. Use Sterling for a maximum of 5 years. An independent Scots currency within 3 years, followed by dual currency for 2 years (give or take a year either way).
Of course, “I know notheeng – I’m from Barthelona…”
The EU helped to finance German unification and self determination by many former USSR countries which have much less assets and resources than Scotland. Gave them loans. The US even helps finance IR. There is a special committee of Senators of Irish heritage who help bring trade and contracts to IR. Germany has one of the most successful economy in the world. Scotland could have the same.
Scotland has friends in the EU and around the world. A 40 million disporia. Scotland gave the world TV, radio, telecommunications which led on to the internet. Scottish invention helped modernise the world. China calls Scotland the ‘land of invention’.
Scotland also starts off from a much higher economic position than the Irish Free State in 1922. Just after the 1WW. The Great Depression 1933. 11WW 1939. Scotland has much more resources. Educated and healthy population.
Iain mhor @ 19:40,
Well said.
Reminds me of the old saying, “the perfect is the enemy of the good”.
The transition to independence by keeping the pound doesn’t ring any bells for me these days, I’m afraid, but the intention is plainly to smooth the transition in the minds of ordinary people. A wise strategy politically even if it clearly doesn’t appeal to the economic radicals. Short-circuits all the diversionary discussions about currency that BT2 could exploit.
Anyway, who doesn’t think that Scotland would move to its own currency very quickly after independence? All the more likely, I expect, as the Brexit pound sinks. Then the squeeze will not be on us, but on rUK. With our natural resources, it won’t be long before it will be positively begging us for a Sterling currency union.
(Which we will ever so politely decline, of course.)
@Les Wilson says: 25 May, 2018 at 3:38 pm:
”
Unfortunately all commodities are priced in dollars worldwide and it is now under strain.The $ has been the dominant currency for so long.”
While that is true the fact is that all international trading currencies are themselves also commodities and they are traded in as commodities like every other commodity. However, the days when such trades stood on the exchange floor and bout and sold currencies are long gone.
Now it is all done by computer algorithms and by split second buying and selling far faster than a human could ever manage to do.
There are computers all over the World buying and selling trading currencies and here’s the rub. If there is no changes in currency values then no dealers make profits. It is thus imperative for these people to engineer changes and they don’t care that doing so often results in wars and strife with people dying in their thousands.
As you say the USA Dollar is the World’s main trading currency and it is no surprise that the USA has appointed itself the World’s policeman and thus gets involved in conflicts, often really none of their business, throughout the World.
Like the old, old song says, “Money is the root of all evil”.
link to youtube.com
Robert Peffers @ 22:28,
Pedants’ corner, but in the interests of accuracy, RP, since it’s a saying frequently mis-quoted (in song and elsewhere), the true saying is “The love of money is the root of all evil”.
Money is no different from any other tool, it can be used and it can be abused.
effenoff @916
Yes
The US has the highest debts in the world. It spends half the taxes it raises on the Military. The highest military spending pro rata in the world. Personnel debt is massive. US poverty rates 14% with no welfare net? China holds a lot of US debt/bonds.
25% of UK debt/bonds is owned by foreign investors. 25% is held by the BoE. Rest is held by private investors, banks and investment, pension funds in gilts etc.
US/UK banks set the libor rates. World inter bank lending rates. The Govs guarantees the deposits.
I agree with Derek Henry, ScottieDog and Richard Murphy, it’s neoliberal, stability pact gone mad (even the EU is considering relaxing that to get growth), and the currency choice for anything more than a year or two is indeed keech. It’s the inability to issue currency is the problem.
But I also agree with Dr Jim, this report is not for us, in fact by NOT having our own currency in it, it leaves the Unionists muttering in their dotage about interest rates being controlled by the Bank of England, as that’s all they ahve, well who gives a stuff?
What it does do however is move on from a formal currency union, leaving Westminster absolutely no control. So basically you could say it’s a fuck off Westminster option.
@ Robert Peffers
Thanks for reminding me why I very rarely visit here nowadays.
I’ll never post on here again.
Re currency.
It has been made clear since 2014 that the hostile British establishment will do everything in their power to try to wreck an independent Scotland for spite as well as for fear of their loss of a cash cow.
George Osbourne was quite clear that he would refuse any cooperation on currency so the use of sterling without permission is a good move.
As I fully expected we are now mired in endless arguments about conflicting economic facts and millionbillionstrillions on battlefields on which we are hugely outnumbered.
The Growth Commission was completely unnecessary and exactly what our opponents wanted. We gave them dozens of targets to shoot at without the armour to repulse the attacks.
A really big mistake.
Why exactly did we choose a specific currency option for them to shoot down when there are dozens of perfectly adequate alternatives.
Did we learn nothing at the last referendum?
@Robert J. Sutherland
“Short-circuits all the diversionary discussions about currency that BT2 could exploit.”
I’m not sure that it does and that’s my main concern. The first line in the report on currency states:
There’s an “exploit” they can use right there, what’s the meaning of “possibly extended period” and still they’ll say “you can’t use the pound”.
All a bit woolly, and best would have been keeping it woolly but they then had to go and give six tests that would have to be satisfied before we could have a separate currency. Talk about putting yourself in a straitjacket.
I’ve absolutely no doubt these words were gone over time and time again and have now ended up coming across worse than they originally were. No ordinary person with a vote really cares about the six tests and this is all aimed at fighting possible arguments presented by the opposition and their media and it doesn’t quite seem to work from where I’m standing. it looks like it invites arguments.
I think I’ll leave it at that rather than get bogged down with this, there are 100 much more important arguments to be won, currency is a side issue for those that support independence but not for those that oppose it. Our arguments on the other issues will just need to mean more to voters in the second referendum and I’m sure that when it comes then they will do.
Independence is about having the power to make your own choices, right or wrong. It has to be our choice, nothing else.
“You are a fraud, Derek and that’s putting it mildly.”
No he isn’t, he believes in MMT, not bankers banking neoliberalism, where banks make and get given the money and we get jack shit, and because of ScottieDog I got converted to the idea as well. To an extent it makes deficits totally meaningless.
@yesindy2
It also leaves them claiming that interest rates being controlled by the Bank of England is bad in this circumstance but somehow good if we are still in the union.
@Gfaetheblock says: 25 May, 2018 at 9:16 pm:
“Am I still spouting shite?”
Yes! You need do a bit more research. Here’s a very brief, (of the top of my head example), of just a few of the countries not using their own currency. Just examples you understand and far from definitive.
There are 27 EU Countries that Use the Euro – most of them are well above average in the wealth league. None of them use their own currency exclusively. Those who are not doing so well are not doing so well for other reasons than simply sharing a common currency. Greece for example is in a financial mess but the cause is not by sharing a currency. What is more Greece and her peoples know this to be true for they are not clamouring to have their own currency.
On the other hand Scotland has her own currency – it is called the Pound Sterling and, contrary to popular belief the Pound Sterling does not belong to the country or the kingdom of England as it was the agreed currency of the only two kingdoms that formed the United Kingdom. Neither does the bank of England belong to England, (and it never has done).
The Bank of England was a private company until nationalised by the bipartite United Kingdom in 1946. It thus belongs to both partners in the United Kingdom and, when the United Kingdom ends (when Scotland decides to end the Treaty of Union), there must be negotiations to decide how much of the Bank of England’s assets belong to Scotland but there will not immediately be anyone to negotiate on behalf of the Kingdom of England as there isn’t a democratically elected Parliament of England and the United Kingdom parliament will just have ended without a single member of the non-existent Parliament of England to be found.
Strange how legal reality and Westminster propaganda seldom agree.
@Dave McEwan Hill
They did say it was a starter for debate, and debate like it’s going out of fashion is exactly what we should do, vigorously! Maybe some NOes will join in with their preferred option, like “I want our own currency”.
Mmm,was that a YES then?
@ Thepnr
Currency is the most important thing bar none after that it is skills and real resources.
Timor-Leste – challenges for the new government – Part 1
link to bilbo.economicoutlook.net
Timor-Leste – challenges for the new government – Part 2
link to bilbo.economicoutlook.net
Timor-Leste – challenges for the new government – Part 3
link to bilbo.economicoutlook.net
Then of course Trade
link to bilbo.economicoutlook.net
The comments sections are full of people who know what they are talking about. Some of the brightest minds on the planet. When it comes to currencies.
@jfngw
We’ve got to feel sorry for all these unionists. There’s one (probably SiU) been going on and on about Denmark and 55 billion as it’s the only country that sounds scary enough for the reserves it has, the problem being for him though is that the Krone is that strong they have to keep buying euros to keep the exchange rate down.
Now he’s had to go back to talking about Greece. My heart bleeds. But not a lot.
@Derek Henry
“Currency is the most important thing bar none after that it is skills and real resources.”
People are the most important thing bar none and after that it’s how as a society we treat it’s people. People make a country what it is, not currency, skills or resources.
We should never lose sight of that, the currency means absolutely nothing if not handled in a way that benefits a countries people. Think again Derek.
What Paul says:
“There is no status quo any more. There is no safety and security of the known quantity of the UK. There are only two choices, taking a back seat as the Brexit bus is driven off a cliff and being utterly unable to have any say the matter, or taking our destiny into our own hands and making our own decisions. That’s it. No other options are available.”
“It’s worth repeating, shouting from the rooftops. There is no status quo. There is only change.”
link to weegingerdug.wordpress.com
@Robert J. Sutherland says: 25 May, 2018 at 10:34 pm:
“Pedants’ corner, but in the interests of accuracy, RP, since it’s a saying frequently mis-quoted (in song and elsewhere), the true saying is “The love of money is the root of all evil”.
Yes, Robert J. I know but the writers of the song, or perhaps the singers of the song, didn’t know that, or if they did the lyrics may not have matched the tune of the song.
It was just that the distant memory of the song came back to mind. BTW: there is a modern song with a different tune and lyrics that I found on YouTube when looking for the original.
Thepnr @ 22:58,
I haven’t read the report as you evidently have, but I can’t say I like the “six tests” you mention any more than you do. A whiff of El Gordo’s objections to joining the Euro, just a cowardly politician’s way of saying no without actually saying no.
Trying to put some kind of gloss on it, I guess they’re trying to convince the public-at-large that the transition wouldn’t cause any immediate upheaval in their personal finances. “Softly, softly catchee monkey.”
I suppose there’s no easy way of getting over the currency issue. Whichever option we choose to major on will be attacked as causing uncertainty, whatever. Better the devil you know to start off with then. (No need to mention timescales at all, then.)
But as jfngw upthread said, attacking this one is maybe the hardest to do, since it has the potential to backfire.
BT2: “So much for your so-called ‘independence’, since your economy would be dictated by England just as much as now”. (A jibe with a certain amount of truth to it.)
YES: “You mean you don’t have any confidence in your rYookay economy prospering? And without having the burden of subsidising the northern ‘subsidy junkies’…”?
Nevertheless, not having a definite stated intent to move to our own currency within a fairly short timescale does rather imply a certain lack of self-confidence.
Gfaetheblock @ 9.16 pm
Panama is one of the countries listed in the reference you gave
“”Panama has had the US dollar as legal tender since 1904, alongside the Panamanian balboa, and was viewed as a special case in Latin America because of the Panama Canal and its huge trade links with the world’s richest country.””
Panama is by no means a basket case economically speaking.
“”The Panamanian economy uses the US Dollar without being in a formal currency union with the USA. Its economy has grown at an average rate of 9.16% a year since 2010, after an unusually poor 2009 when it grew at a rate of a mere 3.9%. (The UK’s current growth rate is 0.8%.) Its per-capita GDP has doubled in the last decade.
Panama has over 78 banks operating within its borders and is currently experiencing a credit boom caused by extensive lending at reasonable rates, a situation that has led some international investors to question if Panama will become the next Singapore.
Of the 78 banks licensed in Panama, two are state-owned, 28 are international banks (allowed to accept foreign investment only), and 48 are general licensed banks. Panama banks are considered very safe bets due to the country’s financial watchdog, the Superintendent of Banking.
It is a financial system that, as noted by the Adam Smith Institute in its advice to Scotland to adopt sterlingisation, is the seventh most stable in the world:…””
From this article:
link to wingsoverscotland.com
Many of the countries listed in the reference you gave such as the South American countries had their own currencies which were pretty rubbish. By adopting the currency of another country e.g. US dollar they were able to impose some order on their chaotic economic situation.
But that is not analogous to Scotland’s situation so they cannot really be used as an argument against Scotland using the pound for a period of time.
Robert Peffers @ 11.02
Not all EU countries use the Euro. I think only 19 do so.
Well, from what I’ve seen about it, not having read it, I’m disappointed particularly the currency choice.
But I don’t matter, I’m YES anyway – whatever we get we can fix it with Independence.
The important people are those that aren’t yes yet and need to be convinced to vote YES.
Could someone point me in the direction of another country that has become independent in the last 50 years on the back of a growth report?
After the Steve Keen v’s Warren Mosler live debate a fortnight ago.
These were the 2 blogs that went right viral afterwards because it was very clear Steve Keen did not have a clue what he was talking about during that live debate.
They are very, very important when it comes to an independent Scotland.
Trade and external finance mysteries – Part 1
link to bilbo.economicoutlook.net
Trade and external finance mysteries – Part 2
link to bilbo.economicoutlook.net
I’m going to the Marriot Hotel at the end of June for the Building A Democracy Fit For The 21st Century conference.
Some FRAUD eh ? One big fat juicy FRAUD
This is my very last post on here and I won’t be back. I’m sick to the back teeth of the abuse every time I post on here.
I hope you all get what you want. I’m working hard to make sure it happens more than you think. Which you will probably find out about soon anyways, but you won’t with Andrew Wilson’s love letter to the bankers.
See you around.
@Thepnr says: 25 May, 2018 at 10:58 pm:
” … There’s an “exploit” they can use right there, what’s the meaning of “possibly extended period” and still they’ll say “you can’t use the pound”.”
Oh! give it a bloody rest, Thepnr. You know, I know, Old Uncle Tom Cobleigh an’ all knows that the Pound Sterling is not only the joint currency agreed by the Treaty of Union as the common currency of the bipartite United Kingdom and as such it is as much the currency of The Kingdom of Scotland as it is the Currency of the three country Kingdom of England.
Not to mention that the Bank of England, (a private company until nationalised by the bipartite United Kingdom in 1946), and the B of E is thus partly owned by the Kingdom of Scotland. Then there is that little matter of the Scottish, (and incidentally N.I.), able to legally print their own distinctive bank notes. This last is conditional in that each batch of notes they print must be legally covered by a deposit to their face value in special bank account the Bank of England’s vaults.
This deposit account belongs to the Scottish Bank that printed the notes and that means the post independence B of E must not only either have Sottish bank representation on the B of E board or compensate Scotland for their share of the B of E and must return the deposit accounts to the Scottish Banks.
This would have grave repercussions for the post independence Kingdom of England.
Then there is that inconvenient little matter that the 1;pound Sterling is an international trading currency and anyone can thus buy it on the open currency market and that means Westminster cannot stop Scotland, or any other person or state from buying pounds on the currency market to use as their currency.
Neither the B of E nor the non-existent Kingdom of England parliament can stop Scotland using the pound if they wish to. Anyway there will not be a legally elected united kingdom government after Scotland ends the Union and there is no elected parliament of the country or kingdom of England.
@Derek Henry
You really need to thicken that skin of yours if you believe you have taken abuse on here. Are you absolutely certain that’s your last post on here?
Take care, by the way I agree with much of what you say 🙂
@Robert Peffers
Eh? Why don’t you “give it a bloody rest” from abusing other posters.
While I’m at it try coming up with some original thoughts now and again rather than pull up every other poster on Wings because you might disagree and must once again remind everyone of the ,i>”bipartite United Kingdom.”
Most of us have got that by now, no need to remind us every hour.
“People are the most important thing bar none and after that it’s how as a society we treat it’s people. People make a country what it is, not currency, skills or resources.
We should never lose sight of that, the currency means absolutely nothing if not handled in a way that benefits a countries people. Think again Derek.”
But that’s the point. If you don’t control the currency you lose the ability to benefit the people.
Money is what moves resources. With someone else controlling the supply of money you can have all the wonderful people and natural resources but if the supply of money is restricted, the resource stands idle.
In addition I notice now there are quite a lot of YESrs talking about cutting the defcit on social media. I’d advise them to google “paradox of thrift”.
Ffs don’t start thinking like K###n H###e
Footsoldier says: 25 May, 2018 at 11:53 pm:
“Could someone point me in the direction of another country that has become independent in the last 50 years on the back of a growth report?”
I wouldn’t know if there was, or was not, such a country, Footsoldier. Most certainly the Scottish Government has made no such claims. Perhaps you should enquire from the Yooniverse people for that concept seems to be their concept and not that of the SG.
However, those people from the Yooniverse do seem to have some very strange concepts. Believe it or not the seem to believe that the United Kingdom, which plainly calls itself a kingdom is in fact a country and laughable they also claim that this imaginary country called the United Kingdom is actually four separate countries but that isn’t all they think that the whole shebang is actually England and that England is the master race with three dominion countries – even if one of those imagined countries is their only actual Kingdom partner in the actual United Kingdom.
Strange people in their yoon yooniverse.
@Thepnr
Robert Peffers doesn’t help by attacking anyone who seems to say anything critical of the SNP, which is most of us at some time or another, and accusing them or us of being fakes. He should cut it out, as some people don’t just shrug and scroll on by.
What does the UK do every time it makes a promise, it waits five minutes then breaks that promise
I kinda believe the *document* is Nicola Sturgeons promise right back at them
*One government cannot bind the next* (Jacob Rees Mogg)
Meaning one term of government is the length of a political promise, that’s one of the reasons the SNP won’t trust the Tories on the continuity bill for the temporary retaining of Scotlands powers because they know the Tories will retain them permanently
So Nicola Sturgeon comes up with this Growth commission report knowing full well once Scotland is autonomous one term of government and all bets are off, just like the Tories would do to us
Make no mistake Nicola Sturgeon has been hating Tories for 30 years no way she’ll hesitate if she gets the chance to cut their heads off and burn the bodies for good measure
She hides it quite well, it’s her job but Tories make her seeth with a venom
Mr peffers
You should really absorb some facts rather than spouting whatever is on top of your head. Folk may take you seriously. That would be a mistake. URL references to credible sources help.
Not all EU counties are in the eurozone
All eurozone countries use their own currency, it is the €
Greece is absolutely in its austerity position due to being in the eurozone
References to the Greek public opinion would help back up your assertions
The BoE is a UK institution and if Scotland were to leave the UK, I suspect the real politik of modern politics would take president than your olde worlde interpretation
@ScottieDog
I guess you miss my point, the currency an Independent Scotland chooses to use, while important is nowhere near as important as to how an Independent Scotland chooses to look after her people.
This is why I am saying there will be many arguments to be won before the next referendum and we shouldn’t allow currency to become the main reason for Independence as it is far from that.
I believe that you are right and having our own currency as quickly as possible will be the best thing, I also acknowledge that this won’t be done overnight.
My main issue with this report is that IMO they shouldn’t have at this stage put any constraints on moving to an Independent currency such as the six tests. I can’t see any need to have done that now. I’m also not happy about stating we would use sterling for a “possibly extended period”. Totally meaningless and sounds more like I’d expect to hear from May, Gove or Johnson.
People will always be more important than currency, just to be sure.
The real reason England can’t lose Scotland as Jim Rodgers stated on the tele. England go bankrupt if they can’t balance the Debt they have against our Oil Assets.
@Gfaetheblock
Best ignoring it he’s having one of his everybody in the word’s wrong bar him nights with the insults thrown in
We could be all wrong or all right it’s only opinions based on what we think or feel and in truth none of us are fully aware of the whole of the facts because the goal posts keep shifting and being rewritten by the day
For example the Brits are claiming the document is entirely different from what Alex Salmond said in 2014, well it’s not, Eck said all the same stuff at one time or another just in a different way but they hated him more because he came first to challenge them and was bold and brash about it, our current FM is a woman so uses her way, which to me looks like more of a sneak up behind them and stick it in their back, as long as it causes their political death I’m happy either way
@Thepnr
On the contrary I’m putting the people before a fag packet 3% max deficit figure. I’m saying that the people should have free health and education for generations to come and whatever else the government deems as a right.
If you choose to run with a foreign currency you are putting the priorities and constraints placed upon you by outsiders – central bankers, foreign govt, and investors AHEAD of the population
The currency ISSUER is sovereign . The currency USER is not.
You and I as currency users can only borrow up to a point – until we start getting charged silly interest rates or to a the stage that banks will no longer lend to us or until we are bankrupt
U.K. govt has been ‘borrowing’ since the formation of the Bank of England and interest rates are near zero. That’s because the UK is the monopoly isssuer of the £ and can NEVER default. It has even used its central bank to buy up one quarter of its debt (which renders the idea of govt debt a farce)
As a currency user, a prospective Scottish government in an Indy Scotland using the £ would have a finiancial pisition closer to yours and mine. Eventually hard choices would need to be made – at the expense of the people in the form of cuts.
The case for Scottish independence gains further credibility
link to caltonjock.com
Let’s grow Scotland.
What’s the alternative?
Q101?
Feelin’ real good about iScotland right now.
Freed unicorn can kick IT.
Fuck it like.
@ScottieDog
I’ve read a great many of your posts on Wings over the years and I’m sure that reading them has brought me around to the belief that Scotland must have it’s own currency when Independent.
So I’m all for that and I understand your arguments, what I’m on about has nothing to do with that as it’s all about in order to put that into practice we must have Independence first.
After today’s report I see currency as a potential point of attack that might deny us that Independence so I’ll downplay it’s importance because at the end of the day it has no importance whatsoever if we are not Independent.
Let’s focus on having the ability to make our own choices and being able to make our own decisions including currency. Getting our priorities right is the first thing we must do.
Now tuning in to Thursday’s wifi #fmqs
Seen the clips…
Et going for the whole 4d excellent experience.
Aye Love Nicola x.
Rock Scotland.
Mwah x.
Soon from now, Scotland will realise.
The truth never changes… s’all about to learn.. YOU know.
7 days remaining to go.
Cum like.
Now!
Hey Cairnstoon.
Hi readers.
Hi commenteers.
Hi contributors.
Tempt ye?
It’s Saturday.
Cairnstoon in the morn…
Hamish may be present.
@Thepnr says: 26 May, 2018 at 12:13 am:
“Eh? Why don’t you “give it a bloody rest” from abusing other posters.”
So what to you call abuse, Thepnr?
, “While I’m at”
Oh! You sure as hell are at it, Thepnr.
” … try coming up with some original thoughts now and again rather than pull up every other poster on Wings because you might disagree and must once again remind everyone of the ,i>”bipartite United Kingdom.””
So instead of getting at those who are getting it wrong you think I’m wrong? Are you really attempting to defend those who agree with the unionists that the United Kingdom isn’t a United kingdom but is what Westminster chooses to make it – The country of England treating her only kingdom partner in the United Kingdom as a country defeated and taken over by the country of England.
“Most of us have got that by now, no need to remind us every hour.”
So, if most of you have got it why is it necessary to keep drawing folks up for forgetting it?
Believe me I’m a great deal more fed-up having to keep doing so that you are reading when I need to do so.
Tory Ruth Davidson is a can’t.
She does not support…
Scotland!
Weekend.
@yesindyref2 says: 26 May, 2018 at 12:26 am:
“Robert Peffers doesn’t help by attacking anyone who seems to say anything critical of the SNP, which is most of us at some time or another, and accusing them or us of being fakes. He should cut it out, as some people don’t just shrug and scroll on by.”
I’ve told you before but it seems I’m going to have to do so again. The NP is a real democratic party and the members, not the leaders, formulate policies by democratic means. No one will stop a person from joining the party unless in very exceptional circumstances.
The SNP is like a big family and big families do not air dirty linen in public. Now here’s the point and member who can get a seconder can criticise the party all they want to at branch meetings. When someone criticises the SNP on a public forum they air that complaint in public and we know that the unionist party and probably the UK security services read Wings.
You thus help the unionist cause when you complain about the SNP or SG in public. They just love it when you do. No one is suggesting you cannot hold different views or complain – just do so in the proper place in the proper manner and this do not help the unionist cause.
Love is like a bomb like aye.
Demolition one…
Can ah be yer man.
Sugar me sweetie.
Independence is the ONLY alternative.
Do not you know like?
Calling 3671RP.
Santos Maria!
Robert Peffers @ 2.17
Mostly I would agree with you Robert
But in this instance the SNP leadership have invited a conversation and a critique of the report!
I am assuming in time for their spring conference, so that the members can come prepared.
My social circle are certainly trying to work out their approach, and have been asking me for my point of view.
They are not wingers but they do like to get the gist of what’s being said here, as they do also seek my opinion as someone who is not an SNP member.
The debate has been invited, fairly and openly, and in the full knowledge that the SNP bad crowd would stick their neb in.
Therefore I think it would be fair to say, we should welcome the opportunity to have the discussion!
There will be more ocasions when people nit picking needs addressing, of that, I have no doubt.
But we need and I am glad the SNP have made the space for this debate!!
So can I ask Robert that you consider my points, and hang fire in this instance?
I need to know all the positions here, and don’t even want the idiots shut down, we also need a heads up on their reactions too…
Be excellently excited Scotland.
Dumfries is SO calling y’all.
Let’s grow the nummers.
Pure hunners.
Like.
@Gfaetheblock says: 26 May, 2018 at 12:33 am:
“You should really absorb some facts rather than spouting whatever is on top of your head. Folk may take you seriously. That would be a mistake. URL references to credible sources help.”
Indeed they do but I’m not going to waste much more time on your claptrap. As it happens I followed your links and they did not even scratch the surface of the matter.
“Not all EU counties are in the eurozone”
Of course but 19 are and thus 9 are not but that is 19 countries happy to use the Euro and they include some of the wealthiest nations on the planet.
“All eurozone countries use their own currency, it is the €
Greece is absolutely in its austerity position due to being in the eurozone.”
E
Rubbish, Greece would have been in the toils no matter what currency they were using. What is more they were warned what was going to happen many times and persisted in following the same economic policies that got them into financial troubles.
In fact much the same as the United Kingdom has got itself into the troubled state of massive national debt. They were warned often enough where they were going but even today the are going down the same path towards disaster. You will note that Greece has made no efforts to either give up the Euro nor to adopt another currency.
“The BoE is a UK institution and if Scotland were to leave the UK, I suspect the real politik of modern politics would take president than your olde worlde interpretation.”
And that is where you are again wrong because there is absolutely no doubt that The Treaty of Union is an International treaty and thus subject to international law. There are only two Kingdoms with signatures on that treaty and that is the point.
Scotland cannot, as a partner in a union of two parties, leave the United Kingdom because there cannot be a united Kingdom with only one legal kingdom remaining. That means when Scotland regains her independence Scotland ends the United Kingdom.
Are you familiar with the legal expression, “Status Quo Ante”?
Do you know what it means?
It means when a two partnership unit splits up they both return to the status they were in before the partnership began.
The principality of Wales and the Kingdom of Ireland were integral parts of the Kingdom of England long before 1707. Norther Ireland was part of the Kingdom of Ireland long before Ireland was partitioned. There was not actually a treaty of union in 1800/1. The so called Anglo-Irish Treaty wasn’t a treaty. It was an agreement between the Parliament of the United Kingdom and the Irish Republic that the Republic was not part of the United Kingdom Northern Ireland wasn’t and isn’t a kingdom and was part of the kingdom of England since 1542 and that was before there was a United Kingdom.
Hey Liz g mwah mwah double kiss xx 🙂
Nukes suck.
Hunners of thousands.
Scotland’s iDebate report is now live and out there for all.
Let’s debate n talk about it…
It’s our future.
Hey Cactus
You and me need to be in charge of the neuks Cactus, we know what to do with them..
Bet Nana would assist too
Safe home my friend XX
Ahm already HOME Liz g.
Anywhere in Scotland aye always ahm xx.
If ah was in charge of WofNMD aye’d suggest…
Superman IV.
Mwah.
What would ye do with dem WofNMD Liz g?
Peace is a quest.
For.
Ahm gonnae take a stab in the darkness…
Saturday Cairnstoon will have summin tae do wae unionist politicians.
Tak yer choice Chris…
IBIATCL.
Clue:
IBIATCLove.
I am finding the series of English poll questions interesting overall. Confirms that on the whole we think differently.
I see above many are getting caught up in the detail of the SNP Growth Report. You need to read it yourself and analyse it. It is a positive document that looks ahead and as such is a conceptual guide of what may be.
Our new currency is to be the pound for up to ten years. This is a strategy to protect our fledgling country from attacks by market speculators. But it is in my opinion going to be less than ten years as Brexit England may be so bad economically that we would need to bin the pound sooner.
Have a look at the BBC news website. Sarah Smith article negative as expected from a die hard unionist however there is balanced reporting there in a summary of the report. Be positive.
The truth never changes.
Links
link to wecan.scot
link to news.gov.scot
link to alynsmith.eu
If you can afford it folks, this needs a wee boost
link to crowdjustice.com
It may seem like a repeat of a 2014 argument, but the point remains… Who can stop an independent Scotland from using the pound?
link to twitter.com
link to thecommongreen.scot
link to randompublicjournal.com
Ruth and the truth
link to m.facebook.com
Anything on the bbc about this or is it all snpbad
UK economy posts worst quarterly GDP figures for five years
link to archive.is
link to nation.cymru
link to theneweuropean.co.uk
link to thecanary.co
Seven year itch
link to archive.is
link to politico.eu
Jeremy Hosking, who has donated £375,000 to the Conservatives since 2015, compared the Prime Minister to a naked emperor and demanded she quit
link to archive.is
link to rt.com
Fintan O’Toole: A United Ireland isn’t what it used to be
Twenty years ago we voted for a new vision of Irish nationalism. Don’t let Brexit drive us back
link to archive.is
link to foreignpolicy.com
link to middleeastmonitor.com
Didn’t think I could loathe Trump more
link to eu.azcentral.com
link to theatlantic.com
Shadowy Israeli firm accused
link to archive.is
Israeli Intelligence Firm’s Election-Meddling Analysis Comes Under Mueller’s Scrutiny
link to archive.is
…the paid trolls must get a briefing paper at the start of their shift!
Make sure you get neoliberalism in your post….! Etc
An Independent Scotland will follow a course dictated by THE PEOPLE of Scotland and not of another country.
The starting model doesn’t matter too much because it will be far, far better than the current Westminster crap.
When Holyrood truly represents ALL the views of OUR nation then the journey begins.
As for this crap that we alone amongst all of the nations of the World would not be capable of running our affairs (including currency) is just another unionist insult.
It is a simple choice:
Do you want to remain part of a right wing isolationist country run for the few OR
Try and build a fairer society.
Remember not ONE nation of the Commonwealth on gaining their Independence demanded a return to London Rule.
..many had to fight for that Independence. All we need do is put a cross on a ballot paper…perhaps that is why it is so hard for some?
It would be interesting to now hear Andrew Wilson’s reaction / rebuttal of this ostensibly stinging criticism and divergent opinion. I use the word “interesting”, but I really don’t mean it. It bores me rigid. What might be more appropriate is an equally forceful demolition of Richard Murphy’s alternative philosophy, but that’s still about as gripping as a rude word on Countdown.
While that’s all going on, I think I’ll go for a quiet pint in a sunny beer garden somewhere, and lament yet another week where Jeremy Corbyn, with everything he’s got going for him, still cannot secure any political purchase over the maddest possible box of Tory frogs and their death-by-Brexit insanity pact. I’ll maybe augment that pint with an even quieter whisky chaser, while I ponder the SNP’s tragic inability to fare any better.
I mean, a Growth Commission Report might be a beautiful thing to have, but with less than a year to save our economic skins and EU citizenship from Brexit, wouldn’t a bleak and sober Brexit themed “Shrinkage” Commission Report have been more apt and maybe a little less self destructive to the cause?
All we seem to have created is a schism in our economic philosophy for Independence, and provided our blindfolded Unionists with a big stick and a piñata to hit as a welcome distraction from Brexit doom and gloom, right when Brexit is stumbling towards it’s doomiest and gloomiest materialisation.
Sod this economic Marmite. When is the main event? When is the damning and inflammatory “Commissioned Report” due out on Scotland’s inalienable Sovereignty which Westminster is currently attempting to subjugate in order to get it’s way over Brexit???
I am so feckin’ sick and tired of all this tepid radicalism and “Trust me! Trust me!” charlatanism.
I don’t trust you!!! I don’t trust any one of these political shysters and strategists. None of them! How many open goals does it take before we can put the damned ball in the net??? We seem as blind and stupid as they are. Will our real Leadership please step forward, make itself known to us, and reveal our coordinated plan to rescue our Constitutional Sovereignty from the clutches of Westminster?
Take our chance. Carpe Diem! Repeal the Union, whatever the cost.
Let’s talk about growth AFTER we’ve dealt with the Constitutional crisis and existential risk to Scotland itself which lies in our continued participation in the UK’s project for self immolation through Brexit.
This reminds me of the large,detailed and unread (save for those taking hostages to fortune) blather that that the Scottish Government produced at the previous referendum.
That sort of guff provides rich pickings for the dependents and little nourishment for the independents
If the SNP choose to shackle this anvil to scotland’s ankle, I really do despair.
Independence does require a sovreign currency, dhenry,scottie dog and indyref2 are correct.
The last thing a newly independent country needs is to nail it’s feet to the floor through discredited gold standard thinking or entirely arbitrary fiscal rules.
Being a currency issuer allows control within the country/nation.
Obligations incurred are settled in that currency.
How it fares against other currrencies as an investment is up to those who choose to speculate.
Margaret thatcher admired the ‘strength’ of the deutschmark and saw that as a goal for the pound, throwing a lot of bodies on the pire on the way.
I do wonder where if there are any dual currency users that rpeffers alludes to that can be described as healthy.
If you choose indepence, don’t bolt in a dependence you don’t need.
I will be voting yes till they nail down the lid.
Gov’ s can’t just keep on printing money? The banking crash proves they can’t. Everyone else pays for it. Worldwide. The standard of living declines. There is no growth. Depression and recession.
Brexit and austerity are lowering standards of living. The cost of living and prices are going up. Vulnerable people are being sanctioned and starved.
The cost of Brexit is double the EU contributions.
The Irish Free State did better even using the £ than under Westminster rule. Much better than NI. Still a subsidised basket case.
IR does not have Scotland’s vast resources. Scotland starts from a much higher economic position.
Corbyn supports self determination and NI having a place at Brexit talks but not Scotland. Wants to get votes in Scotland. What a hypocrite.
Now that there is Brexit and we are leaving the EU, UKIP has disappeared, practically non-existent….
I am very worried that the SNP worry that should Scotland ever become independent, then the reason for there being an SNP party, will be no longer.
For ages on here there has been great discussion ‘re our own currency, what we’d call it, how it and we, would do so well with it. Which I found exciting and so positive.
I don’t really understand it all, (the report/using the £, for up to ten years, and with six strange clauses attached) and I don’t think I’m alone in that, but I do know I feel disappointed. And I dont think I’m alone in that either.
gov’ s can’t just keep on printing money?
Of course they can, that was what ‘quantitive easing’ was about.
The EC and the English Central Bank issued money to illustrate the financial sectors reflection of itself.
Nothing in the benefactors/benefitees thinking or qualitative values changed.
Take RBS, what kind of company could take 10 straight years of huge losses without going bankrupt.
Whether that is a prudent public policy is moot for some, but not I.
Depressions,recessions are a policy choice, not some moral balancing.
@Breeks 8.03am
“All we seem to have created is a schism in our economic philosophy for Independence, and provided our blindfolded Unionists with a big stick and a piñata to hit as a welcome distraction from Brexit doom and gloom, right when Brexit is stumbling towards it’s doomiest and gloomiest materialisation.”
As an SNP member since the 1960’s, I could not agree more. I wrote previously that such a report no matter how brilliant could never satisfy and only provide ammo for the opposition aided and abetted by most of the media.
Mornin’ Nana
Fair old selection there and yes good shout on the defend Clara donation.
Quite the discussion so far on the GC report, but then I’d reckon that was the intent.
I’m a fan of the Scottish currency myself, but effectively it will take time (not long) to set up a central bank and monetary authority and convince people of its pros and cons. On the report’s suggestion? How long we remain pegged to Sterling is a choice dependent on circumstance I’d suppose. Also? It’s not policy till it’s policy. So folk should keep talking. *shrugs*
Honestly though? I’d say we don’t get to decide anything unless we FIRST of all bring the power to do so home.
My personal priorities are independence, written constitution, economy – in that order, but that’s me. Some folk have other priorities and that’s a good thing. 🙂
How and ever, NOTHING happens before we have the power to make the choice for ourselves. Paul over on WGD really is right you know. If the past four years should teach Scotland’s peoples ANYTHING? It’s that there is no status quo. There is no vision of the UK going forward in better togetherness and there NEVER was. (see under EVEL, EU ref, devolution settlement, BREXIT, austerity ideology and, and, and) How many more betrayals of trust by central government will it take before people say ‘STOP! This REALLY isn’t what you said it would be like.’ ?
Regardless, I already know for a certainty that Scotland has wealth in abundance to care for its population. How we use that wealth is currently beyond our control and it’s being abused. Again personally? I’m for bringing the powers home first. Knowing that a host of currency options are on the menu and that the people (with due consultation and consideration) will decide which one suits them best.
Timing is also going to be an issue I’d say. Yer economy specialists among the YES movement may be switched on and fully aware on the benefits of their fav options, but how do they then convince the bulk of the electorate that they are right? That’d be an electorate that barely know there are such things as indy sites and really, REALLY, aren’t as interested or committed to economic philosophies or political engagement as we are. They just want to get on with their lives with the least friction possible. They’re only ever going to do things in small, small, teeny, tiny steps. People like the familiar and moving from the comfort zone of the familiar takes time and patience. Leaps being scary n’all. 😀
It’s taken a long time and a lot of those teeny steps just to get folk to this point. 😀
@Terry says:
25 May, 2018 at 5:51 pm
==============================
No such rebellion in 1700s but perhaps you are thinking of the Monmouth Rebellion of 1685 which was based on West Country support but was more British dynastic/political/religious based rather than being pro-Cornwall.
link to en.wikipedia.org
Though there may also have been an element of this in the rebellion as there seems to have been a history of uprisings against the English government in that area for a long time, beginning with a rebellion against the first Tudors.
link to historytoday.com
Robert Peffers
‘Rubbish, Greece would have been in the toils no matter what currency they were using. What is more they were warned what was going to happen many times and persisted in following the same economic policies that got them into financial troubles.’
Robert is 100% correct, including the ‘rubbish’ part, which offends the easily offended. those seemingly intelligent, yet misunderstand the ‘pushing’ nature of all politics whether online, in the pub or in parliament.
When dispatching opinion, emotion is everything and nothing, inconsequential as merely a route to inspiration/solution /compromise/agreement.
Robert Peffers
‘Rubbish, Greece would have been in the toils no matter what currency they were using. What is more they were warned what was going to happen many times and persisted in following the same economic policies that got them into financial troubles.’
Robert is 100% correct, including the ‘rubbish’ part, which offends the easily offended. those seemingly intelligent, yet misunderstand the ‘pushing’ nature of all politics whether online, in the pub or in parliament.
When dispatching opinion, emotion is everything and nothing, inconsequential as merely a route to inspiration/solution /compromise/agreement.
Unfotunately google translate can’t handle rubbish>scottish
‘Rubbish, Greece would have been in the toils no matter what currency they were using.
That is pretty much a genetic fallacy.
‘Greece’ has been misgoverened for years, including foreign sponsored dictatorships and endogenous graft.
Joining the euro just loaded them up with debt they could not control.
If the debt had been in drachmas, the creditors would have to have taken their lumps, as it is,they are in permanent reparation without hope of redemption.
Good morning Macart.
Agreeing with every word of that post.
Here’s a couple more links for now
link to scottovoce.wordpress.com
OPINION: St Andrews professor on why independence ‘might be good for you’
link to archive.li
@ Macart
This where I start too;
With independence;
The nation decides and it is not bound by some useless document some highly esteemed deadbeats churned out, the ‘commision for an imaginary scotland’ toilet paper is an exhaustingly pointless product of,in my opinion, useless and partisan academics.
Without;
What does it matter?
I’m really off now;
When did the union produce a measured manifesto for anything?
(the mcrone report is an exception, I suppose)
It will always attack on an emotional level.
Meet them on that.
“Gov’ s can’t just keep on printing money? The banking crash proves they can’t.”
The crisis being caused by too much government spending is a neoliberal narrative designed to get us to accept austerity.
The banking crisis was down to banks creating to much money and charging compound interest on it. Most of that newly created money was pumped into the mortgage market creating house price inflation aka a housing bubble.
Most money in circulation today is commercial bank created money. The problem is, when debt is paid back to the bank that money is extinguished. More folk paying down debts than taking out loans deflates the money bubble. In 2008, people went bankrupt, banks stopped lending. Less money in circulation means less jobs, less jobs means less spending, and so on until you’re in a recession.
It was government who intervened. They had to. Our very payments system BACS etc is embroiled in banking.
Bank created money (private debt) is at an all time high – worse than 2008.
Something like half of all Greek ‘wealth’ was offshored or illegally borrowed against by several generations of wannabe middle-class property owners and foreign elite asset and pension managers .
All the debt is now returned to all the people who will also be required to keep their books in order..and not place their trust in capitalist-defined ‘progress’.
@Nana
Enjoyed Mr Bell’s post and it’s pretty much how I view the report. Though tbf, I’ve only skimmed through at this point. Bit on the dry side for me. 😀 LOL
You get the point though from above? If anoraks find it hard to digest. How much harder for every level of the population? It’s a starting point for a debate we can all get to grips with and it’s by no means set in stone. 😉
Game on.
Currency issue again. I’m not enough of an economist to work out whether these proposals are good or bad but what we must surely know and what we must not get deflected from is the simple incontestable fact that independent countries survive whatever currency they end up using. Every independent country at some point in its history encountered this issue. How come that Scotland appears to be the only country on earth where it would be such a barrier to Independence and a brighter future?
@Macart
I’ll be perfectly honest and say I only read passages throughout the report, most of this subject if not all goes way over my head and I do find it very hard going.
At least our competent government are giving us opportunities to discuss the way forward, and what a refreshing change from the ‘do as I say’ shower of greedy useless articles in Westminster.
The louder they screech, the better I like it 🙂
@Nana
If it is above your head, it is the authors’ fault.
This is a document produced for the public to understand.
An endlessly caveated, speculative fiction is something for the media class to fuss about.
Executive summary:
Independece will be difficult to manage, more so if you take the authors seriously.
Last link for today
EU’s Barnier urges UK to accept EU court deal for Brexit
link to archive.is
Well said Breeks, I agree.
Meanwhile an update on the window of the SNP Office and Constituency Office Windows in Perth.
They’ve spruced it up a bit folks, and now we have BALLOONS, several of them. And tiny wee saltire flags, extra small so they don’t scare the tories.
Those hoping for (or wondering why they don’t bother) to have a great big beautiful
poster of the South Queensferry Crossing with a big thank you to all the Perthshire businesses involved in its construction and the words ‘on time and under budget’ underneath, will have to keep waiting,
or those who hoped to see a Baby Box (second hand donated) with all the practical reasons for it, in the window will also have to keep waiting,
or those who thought, in this day and age, that a flat screen TV could be on in the window with 24/7 info graphics, was not beyond the reach of man nor beast – you lot can also keep waiting
or maybe, the fantastic achievements of our SNHS – compared with other parts of the UK could be displayed, along with a great big thank you. But no, not on those windows.
Those windows, large as they are, on one of the main routes into Perth, right next to a bus stop, those windows, can have wee yellow BALLOONS in them, with the SNP slogan on it…. cause that’ll convince the floating voter, won’t it.
Thank heavens Perth has all the know how and experience of Rosanna Cunningham, Wishart and Swinney – to give us BALLOONS in the window. And they wonder why they’re loosing votes.
Open goals well missed.
And for those who have concerns about the does and don’ts of what can go in or on the Constituency window, I phoned up IPSA and the Commission for MP’s Stds to find out,
Party Logos are not allowed, and there is an acceptance that the Office must ‘serve all constituents’, thereafter there are NO WRITTEN RULES OR REGULATIONS.
It took a maximum of 10 minutes and 2 phone calls to ascertain this.
You would think an organised organisation like a political party, would have its eye on a corporate, message, and a standard procedure for things like this, wouldn’t you. You would think that that BIG BEAUTIFUL POSTER OF THE SOUTH QUEENSFERRY CROSSING would be on every SNP window office from the day the Bridge was opened. Hmmm.
One day, don’t hold your breath, one day, someone in the SNP high heed yins, will have a fantastic idea – to put a poster on PDF format, on their website and ask every member to print it off, and put it in their car window, cause you know, every car is a billboard.
Open Goals missed constantly.
Meanwhile the biggest financial disaster since WW2 is coming our way, Holyrood is being dismantled, and the SNP is playing in the bunker, moving imaginary economic forces on a Monopoly Map. A Scottish Bank, a Scottish Currency and a Scottish ‘people’s’ Energy Company are all pie in the sky if we don’t win Indy very soon. Makes a lovely soothing tune for us all to entertain ourselves on though doesn’t it.
Sorry for being so negative people.
@Paul
More likely my fault Paul, short attention span. No doubt I will wade through it all when I can find the time.
ouis.b.argyll says:
26 May, 2018 at 10:32 am
Something like half of all Greek ‘wealth’ was offshored or illegally borrowed against by several generations of wannabe middle-class property owners and foreign elite asset and pension managers .
That is true, as I said above
All the debt is now returned to all the people who will also be required to keep their books in order..and not place their trust in capitalist-defined ‘progress’.
Lost me a bit there, where is this mechanism to return and require?
I have not been issued a bill for any wars,renditions or bank collapses.
I do,annually, exchange nominal assets with the HMRC.
That is about the limits of my agency.
Simon Curran says:
26 May, 2018 at 10:54 am
Currency issue again. I’m not enough of an economist to work out whether these proposals are good or bad
The terrible truth is neither are they.
The a priori assumption is that,as a colony, Scotland has used english sterling.
The priori should be:
Scotland’s productive potential
How that can be best expressed?
Through an identifiable, exchangeable but non convertible currency.
The strange thing is that Scotland is reasonably close (energy,food,infrastructure and lastly education),thanks to the miserable westminster based policies of the last 30 years, to an autarky.
3 questions..
1) Is it desirable for us individuals to balance the books?
2) Should the govt balance it’s books?
3) What if 1 and 2 are mutually exclusive? What then?
Now with the above in mind, let’s get the govt ‘deficit’ down to 3% shall we?
ScottieDog says:
26 May, 2018 at 12:13 pm
3 questions..
1) Is it desirable for us individuals to balance the books?
Of course it is,the sanctions are high for ‘failing’
2) Should the govt balance it’s books?
As it produces both credits and debits, it always does.
Using some of those credits and debits (Bonds etc) to pretend otherwise is a pernicious sophistry.
3) What if 1 and 2 are mutually exclusive? What then?
They have bumped along together as long as I have been alive, so I would say no.
It’s the micro /macro argument.
A currency producer (government) is separate from a currency user (everything else).
They are different realms, with their own strictures.
Now with the above in mind, let’s get the govt ‘deficit’ down to 3% shall we?
Quoting bill mitchell from memory, the 3% figure was pulled out of the air by mitterand’s advisors,euclidean/religious idealism at it’s worst
I must admit I felt a huge disappointment when I read the recommendation was to share the pound. From a purely economic point of view maybe sharing the pound does make sense in the short term.
Politically, the suggestion of informally sharing Sterling with England, Wales and N.I, who oppose indy, seems bonkers to me.
I’ve often said Indyref was Indy-lite, not real independence. This seems like Indy-lite2. rUK / England would remain in control of our economy.
I expect the UK Govt will again threaten to bugger up the Scottish economy if we plan to share the Pound and that will put off people voting YES.
@paul
I’m talking about the aggregate level here.
I’m aware of the SGP and it’s workings. Assuming a neutral balance of trade, growth of the economy will require spending. Spending generates income. If the government wants to balance its books and take money out of the economy, the remaining path is through the private sector borrowing from banks at compound interest. It’s a sectoral balance approach.
I’m quoting the growth commission. They want to ‘reduce the deficit (govt surplus) but assuming they want to grow the economy (assuming neutral trade) at the same time, that leaves the private sector running a deficit which as we saw in 2008 can only go on for so long.
Greek wealth was based on asset assumptions and forecasts created by capitalists lenders and investors who were doing their jobs.
They were enabled and assisted (and corrupted) by democratically appointed administrators, who weren’t doing their jobs- but liked the shifting of capital from common to private hands.
Forgive me, I am rather relieved that some others share my general outlook
ScottieDog says:
26 May, 2018 at 1:14 pm
@paul
I’m talking about the aggregate level here.
I’m aware of the SGP and it’s workings. Assuming a neutral balance of trade, growth of the economy will require spending. Spending generates income.
That is always how it has worked,the NHS could have hardly been created or continued without that.
If the government wants to balance its books and take money out of the economy,
A: what is the government’s motivation? To present a set of balanced books, or a better standard of living or an intesifiated rate of exploitation?
If Government spends nothing and subjects pay nothing, the books will be balanced.
If Government spends everything and subjects pay everything, the books will be balanced.
Motives and political will drive the world, the presentaion of these is just part of the means.
the remaining path is through the private sector borrowing from banks at compound interest. It’s a sectoral balance approach.
If you want supply a resource for saving by creating non convertible bonds, that’s a policy decision, you allow the micro to save into the macro. It’s just moving dead money around.
I disagree with the idea that private capital at compound interest is necessary at all for a currency issuer.
I don’t understand the idea of a ‘balance’, certain economic activity will happen. We have been muddling along with an increasingly inequitable society, from my POV it’s incredibly out of balance, for others it is a just expression of the chain of being.
If productive resources are misallocated, that’s just what happens. One of the richest counties on earth, (the DRC) can be the most desolate.
I’m quoting the growth commission. They want to ‘reduce the deficit (govt surplus) but assuming they want to grow the economy (assuming neutral trade) at the same time, that leaves the private sector running a deficit which as we saw in 2008 can only go on for so long
Private sector deficits do hit the wall, public ones do not. If you want a recession, run up private sector debt and withdraw public sector credit.
If Scotland is better protected in the early year of Indy by using an established fully tradeable currency!
Why is the dollar not being considered?
In the same way that some south American countries do?
Would it not benefit our oil,whisky and tourist industries?
And could that be enough to compensate trading over the English border with a different currency?
Would that no give us the alleged advantages of Sterling,(which might no stay very stable for very long) and also remove the aversion to a Westminster controlled bank..
If it’s no an actual currency union,why does it have to be Sterling?
Anybody any thoughts?
Liz g says:
26 May, 2018 at 2:15 pm
If Scotland is better protected in the early year of Indy by using an established fully tradeable currency!
Why is the dollar not being considered?
Because we do not create dollars, as that is the sovreign right of the united states of america
In the same way that some south American countries do?
Foreign denominated debt is beyond the control of a country.
I lend 1 dollar @ 20 initial pesos
1 dollar goes to 400 pesos
You owe me 400 pesos
Has that dollar borrowed created 380 initial pesos worth of product?
If not print 380 pesos
Caveat emptor
Would it not benefit our oil,whisky and tourist industries?
And could that be enough to compensate trading over the English border with a different currency?
Would that no give us the alleged advantages of Sterling,(which might no stay very stable for very long) and also remove the aversion to a Westminster controlled bank..
If it’s no an actual currency union,why does it have to be Sterling?
Anybody any thoughts?
My thoughts are to have a sovreign, non convertible currency, spend it internally as we see fit and exchange it as needed.
Pie in the sky, but america has being doing it for years
Robert Peffers:
“How about you do other than spout utter pish, Derek?
Let’s have s few specifics, Derek. All you have done here so far is shout down something you seem rather ignorant about. Any fool can do such histrionic claptrap. Either make cogent arguments and debate issues of piss off.”
I’ll decide who does and doesn’t piss off around here. Either cool the beans or find yourself on the pre-moderation list.
So what would prevent a Scottish unit of currency secured against Scotland’s oil, renewable energy and foodstuffs, plus tourism, from overheating and becoming a very strong currency which in turn hammers our exports and makes Scotland a very expensive place to visit?
Being a small economy too, rich or not, wouldn’t we be vulnerable to currency traders playing roulette buying and selling Scottish currency?
I’m not against having our own currency, but the equilibrium of our economy will change after Independence, and I seem to recall even the pound Sterling wasn’t big enough to endure the currency traders profiteering when the UK joined the ERM for a few hours.
There will be all sorts of things happening in the months following Independence, but I don’t see any of them benefiting from either a collapse or overheating of our currency.
If we do have our own currency, shouldn’t it be pegged to a big and stable currency simply from a stability perspective, and to keep our Exports affordable to buyers?
Paul @ 2.40
Thanks
I’m leaning towards our own currency from the start too
But I was just wondering,why IF, it was indeed eventually decided that we were going to use another one (only picked the dollar because of oil)
Why did it have to be Sterling?
Also many thanks for the book,I will get to it,at the moment I’m reading How to Start a New Country,to try and understand this stuff,so as to decide where I finally stand on it!
……………………..
Which brings me to
Can I ask that you Wingers who clearly know all about this subject,to consider dumbing it down a wee bit sometimes?
I think it was Einstein who said ” If you can’t explain it to a 7yr old, ye probably don’t understand it very well yerself”.
And let me tell ye… I need the 7yr old explanations when it comes to this stuff…. Chances are (says she hopefully) I’m not the only one!!!
I’m leaning towards our own currency from the start too
But I was just wondering,why IF, it was indeed eventually decided that we were going to use another one (only picked the dollar because of oil)
If you want to control your destiny, you have to declare your own currency.
There is absolutely no good reason to use promises issued by another entity.
Make your own promises and stick to them.
I think it was Einstein who said ” If you can’t explain it to a 7yr old, ye probably don’t understand it very well yerself”.
I think you have that guff the fraser of allander shat out in a nutshell.
So what would prevent a Scottish unit of currency secured against Scotland’s oil, renewable energy and foodstuffs, plus tourism, from overheating and becoming a very strong currency which in turn hammers our exports and makes Scotland a very expensive place to visit?
Nurse! The smelling salts!
If a currency is overvalued, then it is the responsibility of others to refrain from amassing it and the opportunity for the users of that currency to acquire real assets at favourable terms.
Being a small economy too, rich or not, wouldn’t we be vulnerable to currency traders playing roulette buying and selling Scottish currency?
They have to play off against other currencies, the lamont crash came about because the uk gov tried to peg the pound at a certain level.
If they had let it float, their would have been no edge.
If you are wedded to a certain parity, capital controls are available. I remember them here, and China uses them to this day.
Forex traders do F All without government complicity.
I’m not against having our own currency, but the equilibrium of our economy will change after Independence, and I seem to recall even the pound Sterling wasn’t big enough to endure the currency traders profiteering when the UK joined the ERM for a few hours.
What is the ‘equilibrium of our economy’ for goodness’ sakes?
As I said above, obsessing what gamblers might do is a distraction. Noone died because of the ERM balls up, not even lamont’s career (I think he’s part of le cercle these days)
There will be all sorts of things happening in the months following Independence, but I don’t see any of them benefiting from either a collapse or overheating of our currency.
Then relax and concentrate on the domestic economy, rather than abstractions such as the exchange rate.
If we do have our own currency, shouldn’t it be pegged to a big and stable currency simply from a stability perspective, and to keep our Exports affordable to buyers?
No, it should reflect what others wish to hold in that particular asset class.
Although Einstein may well have said this, the most cogent explanation of how to explain complex concepts comes from Richard Feynman, also a physicist. Worth looking up the Feynman technique and applying it for yourself.
I used the Feynman technique in developing Reframing sessions to counter establishment propaganda. Look out for one in your local area, we will be rolling them out to the wider Yes Movement around the middle of June.
Fascinating stuff in today’s comments.
Sounds like the early days of a better nation – judging by the return of economics, from being the science of greed to being a philosophy of perceived wealth.
The same laws that guide and regulate investors also now protect nations from financial predators, in theory.
The world needs change, the old ways have taken us all to the very brink of civilisation.
If Scotland takes on any of the UK national debt as part of a negotiated settlement that will be in Sterling. That suggests the best time to introduce our own currency, or unpeg it if that was our choice, is when a rise in it’s value serves to reduce our debt in terms of our currency.
Assuming we owed Sterling amounts to anyone other than the UK we might be persuaded to offer them bonds in our currency to cover. Our primary aim would, however, be to our own people.
Who knows, we may transition through the steps towards a completely independent currency in jig time should circumstances permit.
Starting the transition to the Euro would be entirely up to us. Aborting that would always be available and would be done if necessary. The story of Greece, allegedly, is they cooked the books in order to join in the hopes that joining might fix their economy. Arguably that’s actually happening in a rather painful way.
You should visit more ofter paul 😉
———————
Thpnr:
‘People are the most important thing bar none and after that it’s how as a society we treat it’s people. People make a country what it is, not currency, skills or resources.
We should never lose sight of that, the currency means absolutely nothing if not handled in a way that benefits a countries people.’
YES!
K1 says:
26 May, 2018 at 5:30 pm
You should visit more ofter paul
Cheers
I visit most days, comment rarely as I am so emotional.
Fear based economics does tend to bring me out of my shell.
@Paul.
What I mean by the equilibrium of our economy is the strength of your currency versus the value of your exports. Too rich a currency, and foreign countries stop buying your exports and buy someone else’s which are cheaper. Too weak a currency, and your capacity to pay of imports becomes harder. Equilibrium is that bit in the middle where there is a happy balance and relative stability for trade.
When you say, “oh just let a currency float so there’s no edge”, that sounds like Jargonese, and uncannily similar to NeoLiberal Mystics saying “oh just let market forces sort it out”.
You say If a currency is overvalued, then it is the responsibility of others to refrain from amassing it and the opportunity for the users of that currency to acquire real assets at favourable terms. But what are the chances those “real assets being bought at favourable terms” are likely to be businesses which have failed because their export markets have collapsed as a consequence of an overvalued currency?
And while we’re about it, who are these “responsible others” who will so kindly step in regulate our overvalued currency? Do they drink in different Gentlemen’s Clubs from the reckless irresponsible Gamblers whom I’m apparently obsessed by?
As for nobody dying and Lamont keeping his job, I’m not especially reassured by your apparent flippancy. Nobody died when my business got destroyed by the 2008 Credit Crunch and a cheating lying Bank, but that’s only because I couldn’t lay my murdering hands on the troughing, lying, Smart-Alec back stabbing wan#*ers at the Bank who caused it all to happen. That was ten miserable years ago but I’m still living with the shite it left behind, but hey ho, nobody actually died.
OK Breeks, I’ll try and explain how I see it. I’m thinking through as I peck at the keyboard
What I mean by the equilibrium of our economy is the strength of your currency versus the value of your exports. Too rich a currency, and foreign countries stop buying your exports and buy someone else’s which are cheaper. Too weak a currency, and your capacity to pay of imports becomes harder. Equilibrium is that bit in the middle where there is a happy balance and relative stability for trade.
The idea of import and export as a national concern is over exaggerated.
Britain was once the workshop of the world and it did fuck all for the majority.
Germany is a shining example of industrial mercantilism, yet it has lower median wages than luxembourg which has postbox for amazon and not much else.
These transactions largely occur in the private sector, if I can’t afford a korean phone, I’ll buy a chinese one. Everyone in aggregate will make those sort of decisions and in a relatively open economy it’s impossible to micromanage.
The 40 man hours it cost to make that phone for me is a bargain.
Imports are a benefit,exports are a cost. We could heat our homes in scotland with our oil but we choose to chuck it into the market and buy it back again.
Ther might be a good reason for it, but it is less than clear to me
When you say, “oh just let a currency float so there’s no edge”, that sounds like Jargonese, and uncannily similar to NeoLiberal Mystics saying “oh just let market forces sort it out”.
That is how it works, someone exchanges their holdings in one currency for another’s holdings in a different one.
What’s on each side of the trade is a market process. Nothing is created or lost during this.
You say If a currency is overvalued, then it is the responsibility of others to refrain from amassing it and the opportunity for the users of that currency to acquire real assets at favourable terms. But what are the chances those “real assets being bought at favourable terms” are likely to be businesses which have failed because their export markets have collapsed as a consequence of an overvalued currency?
I have no idea what the chances of that are. A currency cannot really be overvalued, it is entirely dependent on what people outside the issuing country are willing to pay for it.
I’m sorry for the failed exporters, but maybe they could sell into their own market?
And while we’re about it, who are these “responsible others” who will so kindly step in regulate our overvalued currency? Do they drink in different Gentlemen’s Clubs from the reckless irresponsible Gamblers whom I’m apparently obsessed by?
I have no idea, forex markets are an aggregate of individual transactions, for the most part making small gains on high volumes.
I don’t think I suggested you were obsessed by anything.
As for nobody dying and Lamont keeping his job, I’m not especially reassured by your apparent flippancy. Nobody died when my business got destroyed by the 2008 Credit Crunch and a cheating lying Bank, but that’s only because I couldn’t lay my murdering hands on the troughing, lying, Smart-Alec back stabbing wan#*ers at the Bank who caused it all to happen. That was ten miserable years ago but I’m still living with the shite it left behind, but hey ho, nobody actually died.
I was taking about the ERM debacle, not the so called ‘credit crunch’. The wholesale and retail banking sectors have been criminal enterprises pretty much since the ‘big bang’ of the eighties.
But that’s not economics, that’s crime. There is a marked tendency in the mainstream to confuse the two.
I don’t think I was being flippant, and I could hardly be aware of your experiences, so if you cannot excuse me, I hope you will forgive me.
See, this is what it’s all about, some passsionate debate, and if the currency issue can mean a dozen different views from different points of view in the Indy movement, THAT accurately portrays the general public, if and when they even bother to think about it.
Which leaves the Unionists joined up opposition to any currency solution, totally non-existent, they might as well not exist, they’s snookered, lost, dismayed, dribbling in their choice of lukewarm beverage which they paid for with a contactless card denoted in, well, some currency or other, and probably backed by their own debt.
Umm, if Unionists support the UK and therefore support austerity, how can they attack the growth commission report on the basis that is has austerity?
I think it’s a bottomless trap, I’ve already seen a couple of unionist agitators sticking bamboo into themselves and smiling with tears in the e’es.
One of the things which drew me to the Common Weal wasn’t it’s socialism, but the delicate emergence of an argument to move away from soulless Neoliberalism which has devastated skill sectors and specialisation and choice, by replacing it with a more moral and richer system which valued the welfare and development of its people.
It was fumbling in the dark for a way of doing it successfully, but speaking as a Tradesman who is never called upon to use any more than maybe 5 or 10% of his skills in a modern world of “cheapest is best” delusion, the words of the Common Weal seemed visionary.
Growth for growth’s sake is a modern post war preoccupations, but such strategies have absolutely destroyed our traditional crafts, trades, and skill sets, and done so across the whole spectrum of Trades from Carpenters to Engineers to Weavers, with no profession spared.
These skills and knowledge are like a dynasty, the old and experienced passed that knowledge on to the young and there was robust and perpetual renewal of the expertise. Modern attitudes to training and College based apprenticeship’s have caused severe damage to all kinds of traditional trades and specialist knowledge.
Back in 2014, I thought YES was going to win and celebrate our emancipation from the Union like a butterfly emerging from a crysalis, instigating a Second Scottish Enlightenment. And one of the most vital threads within that Enlightenment was the reconnection of people and traditional skills, so that their lives were enriched and rewarded with personal fulfillment and expertise.
That, as I saw it, was genius and visionary. That’s the type of growth I want to see central to Scotland renaissance. People at its heart, not coins.
It appealed to me that a modern, rich, small nation would focus its wealth upon its people.
I like the idea that if you wanted to find the best stonemasons, try Scotland. If you wanted something bespoke and intricate carved in wood, the first place you look for the best carpenters is Scotland. Need a good Dentist or Doctor? Ah well, if they’ve trained in Scotland they’re probably in the running… Clyde built? Yup. Thumbs up. Clyde built was once a byword for the way Scotland did things. Imagine Scotland as a Nation trying so very hard to do things right and cut no corners.
We must never ever judge a University or College curriculum by the number of bums on seats, or the cost efficiency of the course, but always, always, always, we must primarily appreciate it on the caliber of graduate produced. Produce excellence first without compromise, and then be concerned with efficiency, but only then.
Scotland has done it before. For a time we led the world’s thinking, and pushed it in new directions, but all our efforts and accomplishments were absorbed and exploited by the British Empire.
When Scotland re-emerges on the world stage, we will have such an opportunity to reset perceptions, and choose the path that delivers most growth, reward and stimulus into the lives of our people.
I want Scottish Growth to have the rest of the World kicking itself for not thinking of it first.
Let us be brave enough to be different, and have our own direction which others will follow. That’s where Scotland is at its very best.
If you can choose to be a car, be a Rolls Royce.
If you can choose to be a plane, be Concorde.
If you can choose to be a beer, you’d probably choose to be Carlsberg.
We can choose to be a country…
Breeks not for the first time I salute your vision of what Scotland could and MUST become , the SNP SG have shown (mostly ) that they have the wherewithal and the belief to attain these accomplishments
In contrast ALL of the brit nat parties have shown their fixation on negativety and their demand that we must do everything according to the failed wastemonster ( english ) non vision of empire , we must accept that we are second class citizens and are incapable of vision , our ONLY entitlement is what our gracious masters deign to grant to a subservient and subsumed tribe , we must be ever grateful for the crumbs they throw us
Hopefully the scales are falling from more people’s eyes , they are seeing that the brit nat parties in Scotland are a representation and an equivalence to the house slave mindset , where the field slaves must be kept under control at all costs lest they see the true situation and realise that they have the power and strength to overcome the slave masters