Runaround now
Just when you thought it was safe, we’ve got one last bit of data for you from our second Panelbase poll, which seems to have really grabbed the attention of the Scottish political world (as best observed in the furious, hysterical reaction from “Better Together” activists on Monday evening when Scotland Tonight announced they were going to be referencing it in the show).
We asked people a couple of questions about their voting intentions in various circumstances, but some of the most intriguing and revealing results came when we inquired as to how they planned to vote in the 2016 Scottish general election.
There will, of course, be an election in 2016 no matter what the outcome of the independence referendum. So we asked almost 900 respondents (identified by their 2011 constituency votes) how they currently thought they would vote if that election was (a) for a new independent Scottish Parliament, and (b) to another devolved administration like the current one.
The overall results weren’t that dramatic – for a devolved Parliament the figures were SNP 30, Labour 20, Conservative 13, Lib Dem 5, Green 2, SSP 1 and Don’t Know 21. For an independent one the SNP, Labour, Greens and SSP all gained (+5, +2, +1 and +1 respectively), while the Tories dropped by 2 points and the Lib Dems by 1. Slightly surprisingly, the number of Don’t Knows actually fell by 3 points (to 18%) for an independent parliament.
But where it got interesting was in the party breakdowns.
——————————–
2011 SNP VOTERS
(Devolved/independent)
SNP 59/72
Labour 10/8
Conservative 4/2
Lib Dem 2/<1
Green 2/2
SSP 2/1
Don’t know 16/11
——————————–
2011 LABOUR VOTERS
(Devolved/independent)
Labour 47/55
SNP 13/11
Conservative 6/2
Lib Dem 6/2
Green 2/4
SSP 1/4
Don’t know 20/18
——————————–
2011 CONSERVATIVE VOTERS
(Devolved/independent)
Conservative 68/68
Labour 3/2
Lib Dem 3/2
SNP 2/2
Green 2/2
SSP 0/<1
Don’t know 15/13
——————————–
(The sample of Lib Dem voters was too small to be useful when broken down, but makes scary reading all the same – just 33% of people who backed the Lib Dems at Holyrood in 2011 plan to vote for them again in 2016 in another devolved Parliament, or 36% if Scotland is electing its first independent government.)
So what did we just learn? Most strikingly, that if Scotland votes No next year, less than half of the people who voted Labour in 2011 currently plan do so again in 2016. A massive 28% are already planning to defect, with almost half of those heading to the SNP. (And as many as 6% switching to the Tories.)
The prospect of independence, though, firms up the Labour vote back to a majority of current supporters. Clearly, the idea of some Westminster talent coming home and replacing the current C-team is an attractive one to Labour voters.
Less encouraging for Labour is that almost as unexpectedly, independence would see the SNP vote solidify, not weaken. It’s common received wisdom in Scottish political circles that with its unifying goal achieved, the bonds holding the party’s left and right wings together would be broken and the vote, if not the party itself, would splinter into factions.
It’s also regularly asserted that the electorate votes SNP for competent Holyrood government, but only if it feels secure that it won’t achieve independence.
Our survey just doesn’t back either of those beliefs up – those who voted SNP in 2011 expecting a “safe” minority/coalition administration are considerably MORE likely to stay with the party in the event of independence than if the referendum is lost, and it makes almost no difference to voters of other parties.
We also find that whether the Scottish Government is independent or devolved makes almost no difference to the views of Tory voters, who are already the most loyal to their party and would remain so whether Scotland votes Yes or No.
These, then, are fascinating results all round. They suggest, in line with our other findings, that an independent Scotland would lean more to the left than at present, and that Labour stands to lose the most from a No vote.
Fully a third of those who voted for Labour in 2011 currently intend to abandon the party next time round should the No camp emerge victorious next September, with another 20% wavering – far higher numbers than either of their two main rivals.
Johann Lamont should be careful what she wishes for.
Great news, clearly Labour’s lurch to the right is killing them in Scotland, keep up the good work Johann !
Jojo only pawn in game o’ life.
Absolutely astonishing read Stu -Very well done with this titbit
A very clear break down from what I can see, with clear issues for Labour in Scotland.
Jobs could seriously be on the line for central belt ploiticians as you say.
For us its a no brainer but – are Labour in Scotland deep thinkers ?
Doesn’t seem that way; they are currently working on ‘reactionary solutions’ as we have seen from their current leader.
They are devoid od idease and will not in the main consider possibilities of a YES result.
So in theory Labour MSP’s should be supporting independence as it is the best way (least worst way?) to keep their jobs. But then you chuck in the ‘big guns’ from Westminster returning and wanting MSP seats. The current crowd keeping the Labour seats warm should still be No supporters.
No wonder Lamont struggles to string a sentence together, her head is about to explode. She loses her job no matter what happens. I wonder if she takes payment protection on her personal loans.
Interesting to see the increase in support for the Greens and SSP from 2011 Labour voters if we become independent. Could these people be looking to vote for a genuinely left-wing party, but are currently put off the SSP and SGP because they support independence, which suddenly becomes a non-issue if we’re independent anyway?
It was good to read the comments from the No twitters on Monday. Those who dismiss the poll should consider doing a poll with a different polling firm asking the same questions etc. Until then, we feel your pain and when the results are published, we will still feel their pain. 🙂
Along with the high quality of the SNP’s parliamentarians, the SNP vote in 2016 will hold up with a Yes vote because the independence process won’t be finished. Who would want a unionist party implementing independence?
I worry that those who wanted Devo-max will vote No in the referendum and then vote for the SNP in 2016 thinking that this will be a form of Devo-max. Sadly I think that they are either uninformed or very mistaken.
Now that is classic.
Won’t be long before Labour splits, if only because some want to save their own hides.
“I worry that those who wanted Devo-max will vote No in the referendum and then vote for the SNP in 2016 thinking that this will be a form of Devo-max. Sadly I think that they are either uninformed or very mistaken.”
That’s a very believeable worry. I really hope we can make things clear that devo-max isn’t even on the cards – it’s independence, status quo, or less.
I agree with Doug that it is good to see labour voters move to Greens ans other parties because as the Labour party keep moving to the right what’s the point of votng for them? At least the voting system in SG elections gives their vote meaning. Labour in Scotland really need to (this time really mean it) consider their policy positions in the case of an indy Scotland or a devolved Scotland, they really need to differentiate themselves from Nu Labour. Hopefully the men and women at LFI will be the catalyst for that. Nice to see percieved political theory get shot down regarding the SNP voting intentions in either case.
Interesting how independance makes things clearer, the number of don’t knows looks as if it drops in all cases.
Man in the JAr- Interesting, but I must admit I’ve never heard supporters of devo max suggest that specifically neither Hassan or Riddoch over the articles I’ve read from them. Hopefully folk aren’t that easily fooled.
“Fully a third of those who voted for Labour in 2011 currently intend to abandon the party next time round should the No camp emerge victorious next September, with another 20% wavering”
Ha, Labour, it appears, are campaigning for their own demise.
Re SNP vote; I fully expected their voter base to fall when we become independent, so surprised to see the poll show it would harden. Like many others they get my vote because I just see them as the vehicle to get us their – once there I would move to SSP.
Interesting. I’ve often felt in being entirely and aggressively against independence, and abusive to those who disagree, Labour is shooting themselves in the foot big time. There has been a dramatic shift in votes and party membership away from Labour to the SNP over the past decade or so in Scotland, and that is for many reasons. But the main two, I’d say, are the policies followed by “New” Labour at Westminster, Iraq, privatisation etc and the dearth of talent they put forward up here, especially when set against a surprisingly competent SNP administration between 2007-2011.
For those of us who’ve been a part of that movement away from Labour and towards the SNP, the vitriol directed towards us is a real eye-opener. There is no attempt to debate, to woo people back, to understand why we’ve shifted, to understand why we might think devolution isn’t working well enough and more is needed – just abuse, smears and joining with the Tories and a hugely biased media to try and make out it’s all somehow because we’re “anti-English”, “Braveheart nationalists” or whatever.
But all this means is, in the event of a No next year, a huge number of people will be deeply disappointed, and the party they’ll blame most will be Labour. After the past couple of year I can’t see me voting Labour again ever, not unless we get independence and there’s a radical shift in policy and faces. Which means if we’re in the UK the SNP is the only option. Yet Labour rely on Scots voting for them at Westminster to keep the Tories out.
So I’d say a more worrying question for labour might be who will people vote for in the 2015 Westminster election if it’s a no? Guaranteed they’ll be out with their “if you don’t vote for us the tories will get in and it’ll all be YOUR fault” blackmail. If they’ve “won” a no by then, they can shove that: I won’t be voting for them, and I guess a lot of other previous Labour Westminster voters will feel the same. The very interesting scenario will be what happens if it’s a no vote, possibly based on vague jam tomorrow promises from labour. But then Labour narrowly lose the 2015 Westminster election, and part of the reason for that narrow loss is a collapse of their vote in Scotland into more of a Holyrood breakdown? A narrowly elected Tory government, with far more SNP MPs and far less Labour ones. You can imagine who Labour will blame for that. But also you’d have to think would that not be the very worse result for everyone?
Evidence that we have thought for a while. A NO vote will eventually kill Labour in Scotland. Faster than some might think.
Labour are in such a mess they really have to be pulled out of the line, rested, re-eqipt retrained & relaunched. I hope they do, for they are needed to help create a new fairer Scotland. Unfortunately at the moment they are a toxic brand. They need to get back to the founding principals and rebuild. And clean out the current bunch of wasters. I HOPE THEY DO IT.
I think that ‘Scottish’ Labour only has one option, and even that might not be enough.
As so many of their own supporters will vote for indy, they need to take a public neutral stance. That seems to be the only way most of the MSP’s could hang on to their jobs. If they make the vote a non party issue, voters might stick with them.
Cath:
“Yet Labour rely on Scots voting for them at Westminster to keep the Tories out.”
Hasn’t that one been put to sleep already?
link to wingsoverscotland.com
Given its the festive season around the corner, is this proof that Turkeys do indeed vote for Christmas?
I await Henry McLeish using this as the reason for coming out for YES and then see the cracks appear.
Its interesting (and a little scary) that Tories will be smiling at these numbers. They really could have avenues of opportunity to claim the Right once the Labour and Lib dems are shunned. Interesting times ahead.
On the various twitter related posts lately, Rev, hows about you stick a Twitter feed widget on the site, give folk a taste of what your saying out there in tweetland.
@ Sneddon
Hopefully folk aren’t that easily fooled. (?)
Oh but thay are – example Dunfermline?
You mean, a different twitter feed widget from the one he already has?
“Hasn’t that one been put to sleep already?”
Yes it has, to an extent – we’ve never affected a result yet. But I suspect the 2015 election is going to be very close and currently polls are all over the place. The loss of a large number of MPs from Scotland could actually affect the result if it’s a very close one.
Somebody mentioned devo max. Devo Max could never have been a referendum question as it would be a question that the unionst could never win or have control off. Devo Max has now become a weapon to defeat independence. Although the Devo Max that will be promised by NO will never produce anything near what the Scotland people want. Devo Max will be a never ending promise, if Scotland says no.
Not entirely off-topic, Derek Bateman today
“”people are merely the means to an end. And that end is keeping Labour in power.”
http://drderekbateman.wordpress.com/2013/10/30/dear-derek/
@Morag
Yes, thats just a link. A widget would actually show the latest tweets posted by the Rev. Usually its the last 5 or so Tweets shown in a loop within a small area on screen.
Could be handy given a lot of folk are blocked from Twitter during office hours and also gives people examples of whats being said or who Rev interacting with.
I think that the best hope for real Labour voters is that they “Rip it up and start again”
Orange Juice to provide the campaign song. 😉
I wouldn’t worry about Devo Max too much min…..
Ali Darling refered to Independence as a ‘Pig in a Poke’…..well once the White Paper is printed the people of Scotland will be able to see and assess the Pig and the Poke and then they’ll notice there are no details coming from the No side.
Plus if it is brought up….the SNP can legitimately say ‘Hold on a minute….at the beginning of this process we gave you the opportunity to put Devo Max on the ballot and you ran away..’
I believe that the SNP is not beating Labour, it is replacing Labour (and the LibDems) and I do not believe that the Labour party in Scotland will survive far less become a revived Labour in an independent Scotland.
Paradoxically the Tories have more to hope for in an independent Scotland. I wonder if they will waken up
desimond at 11.12
“On the various twitter related posts lately, Rev, hows about you stick a Twitter feed widget on the site, give folk a taste of what your saying out there in tweetland.”
There is noneed for that. Join Twitter and follow Wings et al. It is Oh so easy and it is free.
O/T – but High Praise indeed!!!! 😀
http://wp.me/p3S2uY-26
Tick tock.
Only a matter of time before a Senior Labour MSP comes out in support of indy and begs other Labour colleagues to put together a manifesto of polices for an indy Scotland.
When the white paper is out, it will also transfer the heat onto Labour and the rest of the Unionists parties along the lines of ‘Well, what are your policies in an indy Scotland?’
‘Oh, we don’t believe in it, so you don’t want to protect the NHS, Education, scrap the bedroom tax….etc’
They are f**ked.
O/T – but High Praise indeed!!!! 😀
Yer link’s no working.
Yes, thats just a link. A widget would actually show the latest tweets posted by the Rev. Usually its the last 5 or so Tweets shown in a loop within a small area on screen.
He used to have that, but changed it. I don’t know why, but it could be the thing was making the pages load slowly.
@Dave McEwan Hill
The Tories are chancers; like poker players & gamblers all. I predict they’ll go to the brink and only change their tune when there is no other option.
Even when there is a clear sensible place for such a positon in the new Scotland.
Any takers on ‘Tories for Independence’ emerging ? (Oops that gambling sorry)
If I know Labour – pretty sure there will be no breaking of ranks within their MSP’s either.
(Now I would take odds on that – none with the balls or nous – not one )
@a supporter, @Morag
Im happy enough out there in Twitter land under @EtimsNet.
Was just a thought for those not in Twitter or unable to access from a work PC. No biggee, unlike Labours cold day of reckoning ahead.
I would have to be a don’t know in the event of a no vote as I hope I will be somewhere else – Ireland, France, Norway anywhere – where people hold their heads up and believe in themselves and in their country. Anywhere that the debilitating cringe of Bitter Together does not reach.
Further to my last post re joining Twitter. When the White Paper is published there will be a blitz of attacks to denigrate it by the NO shower. So we really need many more Indy tweeters to fight the good fight. Join up asap and gain some experience of using it before 26 Nov.
In the event of independence, and the first democratic election thereafter, it makes sense for previous SNP supporters (and some) to stick with what they have seen work effectively for Scotland. If some negotiations with rUK are outstanding people will trust the SNP to get the best deal for Scotland.
Once the Scottish Labour Party sort out their leadership and prove they are trustworthy to run a government, only then may they begin to recover. They will also have the “legacy” of many of their best known names being against an independent Scotland.
“A narrowly elected Tory government, with far more SNP MPs and far less Labour ones. You can imagine who Labour will blame for that. But also you’d have to think would that not be the very worse result for everyone?”
If that happens it won’t matter who Labour blame. It will have become irrelevant in Scotland. And maybe if it were a NO vote we would have a Coalition of Tories and SNP with full DevoMax as a quid pro quo.
I’d have been interested in knowing how people will vote in a GE in the event of a No vote. I’ll never vote for a unionist party again. And I’ve promised to go to Easterhouse to campaign against Mags Curran! Every unionist MP should have their words from the indy campaign emblazoned on posters in any seat they stand in, to let the Scottish electorate know how little regard they have for them.
And we’ve been working hard to register the “missing million” who are no longer on the electoral roll. That will be game-changing in many seats, where the “safe majority” is less than the non-voting. IMHO!
@ a supporter says :
Better make the twitter practice earlier as you know the ‘White paper’ will be leaked by BBC / MSM probably around the week or so before.
(Well if we are going to form thats what will happen anyway or they’ll just hack the info – no one gets caught now anyway do they?)
Stu,
BT just launching their Academics Together. Seems you are allowed to comment on their launch page:
link to bettertogether.net
But here’s the trick. You can only see your own comment, not those of others. It’s not the open exchange of views that we’d expect Academics to endorse.
Regards,
Jimmy
@Cath
For those of us who’ve been a part of that movement away from Labour and towards the SNP, the vitriol directed towards us is a real eye-opener. There is no attempt to debate, to woo people back, to understand why we’ve shifted, to understand why we might think devolution isn’t working well enough and more is needed – just abuse, smears and joining with the Tories and a hugely biased media to try and make out it’s all somehow because we’re “anti-English”, “Braveheart nationalists” or whatever.
Yes, Lamont gave SLAB’s attitude away after the 2011 elections when she said the electorate had stopped listening to them, rather than the other way around. It showed that SLAB basically think they should always win elections in Scotland, and if they did lose ones it was the fault of the voters. This level of self entitlement means that they cannot respond to changing political landscapes.
Hey Rev –
See your the feature on Bateman today !
link to derekbatemandotnet1.wordpress.com
I imagine an element of this comes from the devo max camp.
If there is a No vote and you still want indy and vote SNP you’ll stick with them. If you are a devo max Labour voter then it’s not clear you can trust them on more powers at all, so SNP it is as you can be damn sure they’ll fight Scotland’s corner. Also are actually a moderate, centre to left leaning party.
I believe that the SNP is not beating Labour, it is replacing Labour (and the LibDems)
Yes, to an extent that’s correct.
“I believe that the SNP is not beating Labour, it is replacing Labour (and the LibDems)”
Certainly in terms of where talented people go that looks entirely true. The difference in quality between SNP politicians and Labour ones is stark, and that’s not just the 3rd rate Scottish parliament ones either but at Westminster.
Ann – I’ve promised to join the same campaign to unseat Curran. If it’s a NO there will be a huge amount of disappointed people, but also networks and new political hopes that will be looking for something to do next and have a suddenly huge amount of time on their hands we no longer remember what to do with 😉
Getting rid of some of the deadwood Labour types in constituencies that haven’t changed hands since Victorian times will be high on many of their lists of things to do.
The coup de Gracie. 🙂
You can see why they got into a bit of a tizz wearing their BT jaikets, but surely more than one Labourite must be rubbing their hands at even a minor come back in an independent government?
Like most of you on here I have nothing but contempt for the carpetbaggers in the SLAB.
However I think people are getting ahead of themselves in foretelling their imminent demise.
Lest we all forget they won Dunfermline quite convincingly.
For hte love of me I cannot think how anyone can possibly vote for them they are the most corrupt ,dishonest undemocratic unprincipled shower of cretins in western Democracy never mind UK.
However the Scottish voting masses still support them and I do not see that changing anytime soon.
@ Macart
‘but surely more than one Labourite must be rubbing their hands at even a minor come back in an independent government?’
That would require grey matter and its in short supply at Labour.
Aye, No Scotland launching their Academics for Better Together or what-ev-er – you’re allowed to post comments, but only if you include footnotes and a detailed bibliography.
@ Gordoz
Clearly a man with his finger on the pulse… 8)
Because this website and its use of unedited freely available commenting is not a democracy in the traditional sense…
Its a dictatorship of one man sitting in a bath… or something like that.
“If you are a devo max Labour voter then it’s not clear you can trust them on more powers at all, so SNP it is as you can be damn sure they’ll fight Scotland’s corner.”
This is a very dangerous assumption though. As much as the SNP fight Scotland’s corner they could do nothing – and nor could anyone in Scotland – if Westminster is pushing through legislation detrimental to Scotland and/or the Scottish parliament. Even in the very worst case scenario, say a Tory/UKIP coalition decides to solve “the Scottish problem” by abolishing the Scottish parliament, all the wailing and teeth gnashing in the world and 95% of people in Scotland disagreeing would be pointless – we’ll have voted to leave that power with Westminster along with all other decisions about us.
The ONLY power the SNP has over Westminster is the threat of independence. With that out the way they can do what they like.
Point of note / maybe a good idea to pass on
Good point made by my kids, about the new YES website.
It currently severely lacks a friendly human touch such as peoples faces ets (can someone get this over to YES site)
@Gordoz
Touché. 🙂
Point a definite point.
More or less every argument from the NO side boils down to affordability, and inevitably north sea revenues will play a large part in that equation.
By the 2016 election we will know just how accurate the current doom and gloom scenarios for oil price and productivity have been, and if it turns out the Scottish electorate have been ‘had’ (again) the backlash against the unionist parties will be immense.
The unionist may think a NO vote would put this issue to bed for a generation, but a huge SNP victory in 2016 could well mean a snap re-run of the referendum (now that all the homework has been done) and the chances of a second NO would be about zero.
Thank Rev – remarkable insights. Wonder if you might get any of the MSM to pick up on that as a Labour headline in the event of a NO vote ! Could we feed that out to them via Twitter?
Also are the raw poll tables available yet?
Sorry if I just missed the link with all the recent activity?
Hey Rev –
In answer to your twitter Q – ‘Man, does anyone know where I can find three more of me?
Try –
link to roslin.ed.ac.uk
Runaraaaaannnnnnd, d, d,
Even in the very worst case scenario, say a Tory/UKIP coalition decides to solve “the Scottish problem” by abolishing the Scottish parliament, all the wailing and teeth gnashing in the world and 95% of people in Scotland disagreeing would be pointless
I see your point, but any attempts to reduce the powers of the Scottish Parliament or close it (how would this be done without sending in tanks?) would result in Scottish independence one way or another. Scotland would send SNP MSPs to Westminster in the 2015 GE too. The Scottish Parliament is here to stay; the only way for it to close is if people in Scotland want it to.
It’s not going to go away. It’s devo max or indy. As the latter is just not going to happen, we’re looking at the former either next year (ideally and which I remain confident of) or not long after.
Fair dues : The Tory steadfast really are consistent as shown on this BBC Map of 2007 v 2011 results
The clear message for Scottish Labour is that many of their natural grass roots support is prepared to vote tactically against them, and that they hope a Yes vote will result in a reformed Scottish Labour party. One they can recognise as being Labour.
I used to feel the same. Now, I can’t ever see Scottish Labour as electable. There would have to be a French revolution style clear out first. Too many lies, too much fear, and unforgivable disrespect for our country and it’s people. Look at how they treat their own in LFI as ("Tractor" - Ed)s.
More than half a century of mediochre leadership, with a vested interest in disenfranchisement, and an eye on a first class ticket and an ermine jaiket. Isn’t that right Lord McConnell.
@Rod Mac
“For the love of me I cannot think how anyone can possibly vote for them they are the most corrupt ,dishonest undemocratic unprincipled shower of cretins in western Democracy never mind UK.”
The problem is Rod, that if you only get information from the MSM you wouldn’t know they are the most corrupt, dishonest, undemocratic unprincipled shower of cretins. As far as the “Scottish” MSM is concerned they can do no wrong!
Its a crying shame that the powers that be (Rev) didn’t do the same for the 2015 GE. 🙁
Interesting situation if a No is followed by a GE where the SNP get say 41 seats, Labour 12 and the LibDems 1 (You’ld get that on a 45%:29% SNP:Lab split vote, the equivalent of the 35:22 + DKs above). Does the old SNP mantra of a majority of the Scottish Westminster seats come into play?
And what message would it send if, heaven help us, we managed to reproduce the 2005 / 2010 result again?
Pretty please for the next one? (/*Hopeful smiley face*/)
It’s not going to go away. It’s devo max or indy. As the latter is just not going to happen, we’re looking at the former either next year (ideally and which I remain confident of) or not long after.
D-oh, this of course should read:
It’s not going to go away. It’s devo max or indy. As the former is just not going to happen, we’re looking at the latter either next year (ideally and which I remain confident of) or not long after.
Murray McCallum
You forget that it very unlikely that a real labour Scotland would be in any position to govern Scotland. Unfortunately, the party my father as well as myself voted for, is dead. Why, because it is bitter and corrupt to the core. The existing labour elite force in Scotland would all, need to be FIRED, and a whole NEW party led by a Scottish element that actually do, believe in their country.
That will be very hard for them to do.
It’s not going to go away. It’s devo max or indy. As the latter is just not going to happen, we’re looking at the former either next year (ideally and which I remain confident of) or not long after.
“Read what I mean, not what I wrote”?
Apologies, Scottish Skier – in my haste to get the link up quickly, I just copied the one from the foot of Derek Bateman’s (the wordpress e-mail alert) – he’s advocating the Rev gets incarcerated as a dangerous subversive. 😀
Go to the blog – I’m not going to risk messing up the link again…. (not from this side of the Great FireWall…)
My view is this is ‘Scottish’ Labour leaderships plan. They take the hit with Johann Lamont, Iain Gray et al will be rewarded with HoL seats in the event of a No vote. British Labour know they don’t need Scottish votes to gain power at Westminster as has been demonstrated time and again on this Blog. But they also know that in the event of a no, voters in Scotland will vote for them to try and deny the Tories from gaining power.
Hi. rev,
Take a look-see at today’s Dundee Courier, and Jenny Hjul’s take on your/panelbase survey,
your latest breakdown ought to be featured in the likes of The Herald, would that it would
be possible to insert it alongside one of “A Cockers” columns!!.
Here’s the link to the article on the Rev.
link to derekbatemandotnet1.wordpress.com
Stu’s in big trouble ‘cos Bateman’s clyped to MacAskill!
The unionist may think a NO vote would put this issue to bed for a generation, but a huge SNP victory in 2016 could well mean a snap re-run of the referendum (now that all the homework has been done) and the chances of a second NO would be about zero.
Interesting situation if a No is followed by a GE where the SNP get say 41 seats, Labour 12 and the LibDems 1 (You’ld get that on a 45%:29% SNP:Lab split vote, the equivalent of the 35:22 + DKs above). Does the old SNP mantra of a majority of the Scottish Westminster seats come into play?
I sometimes wonder about this. I think a lot will depend on what the SNP say in their manifesto, and how they play the campaign. That in turn will depend on the margin of victory for No, and perhaps more importantly the general public mood as regards the outcome of the referendum and subsequent developments.
It is open to them to make an election into a referendum by insisting that a vote for the SNP IS a vote for independence. The difficulty is that we won’t get another Edinburgh agreement, it would be difficult to run another referendum without that, and UDI is very messy indeed. So I really don’t know.
Excellent analysis and deserves to be discussed at length on the telly, if only we had a broadcaster who gave a toss. But this is another positive for voting for independence and so should be pushed more by the Yes campaign – Scotland, as well as becoming economically and democratically better off, will also become politically better off too.
I have always voted SNP, but I am keeping an open mind come the 2016 election as there is absolutely no way of telling what will become of the other parties and their policies come a Yes vote. Labour/tory/libdem will all have to switch their allegiance from pleasing their masters in London to serving Scots and that is undoubtedly a good thing for everyone, and another reason to vote Yes…
@Morag
Is it an either/or situation with regard to UDI vs Edinburgh Agreement (or equivalent)?
If they were elected on a SNP majority = indy ref manifesto I dont’t think there’s much Westminster could do, in fact I’d completely bypass Westminster and hold a referendum 2 weeks after the election, they’d have to accept the outcome. What are they gonna do? send in the tanks? refuse to acknowledge the democratic will of the people? the international community would decide.
Hopefully it won’t come to any of that though!
I think it’s pretty much obvious that people feel (regardless of whether they vote yes/no) that the SNP would be most likely to bust a gut in the early years of an independent Scotland while a labour administration couldn’t be trusted to bring things foreword in a positive manner because they could always justify mucking things up with ‘I told you so’.
With a no vote then it’s also still the snp most likely to fight for damage limitation.
Even the staunchest unionist has to recognise where the strongest motivation will lie for probably the first decade at least.
“while a labour administration couldn’t be trusted to bring things foreword in a positive manner because they could always justify mucking things up with ‘I told you so’.”
Very good point, as a fledgeling new country we really have to have leaders who actually believe in it.
““Yet Labour rely on Scots voting for them at Westminster to keep the Tories out.”
Hasn’t that one been put to sleep already?”
based on the facts yes but many still have the perception that it’s true and it’s that perception that affects their voting intention.
Sounds like it would almost makes sense for the SNP to promise to disband in the event of a NO vote, music to the ears of the hardcore unionists of course, but would really concentrate the minds of undecideds or indeed anyone who sees the benefit of having pro-Scotland politicans in charge in Holyrood.
Well done Rev, in disecting those figures.
It proves SLAB have had many years to get it right, but didnt bother, and now they’ll pay the price for their, deceit.
My faith has been restored in the Scottish public, (If the poll is anything to go by), that theyve had enough, of SLAB parading as a left wing party, when infact, they secretly wish they were the Tories.
A bit of a nuclear option, don’t you think?
Drastic times would call for drastic measures.
Rod Mac at 12.18
Labour polled less than half of 43% of rhe electorate at Dunfermline against an SNP which came from third place to a compleletly shock win in 2011. Fewer than one in five of the electorate at Dunfermline voted for the winning Labour candidate. That was just the dyed in the wools out voting and I would bet a majority of them were around pension age
Politcal change doesn’t usually come in one step. In most cases a change of allegiance is preceded by a no vote at all at one or more elections.
The SNP is replacing the Labour Party not least because politically motivated people witha progressive agenda who would have been joining Labour twenty and thirty year ago have been replaced by dead wood, ambitious researchers and self seekers and the good guys are in the SNP.
The present Scottish Labour Party is effectively dead but it hasn’t had its death certificate yet as long as the unionist media are able to use the corpse as a front
handclapping
I agree it would have been great to see what voters would be likely to do in the event of a 2014 NO followed by the UK GE in 2015.
It could still (if SNP have a majority of MP’s in Scotland) still deliver a last chance to get independence.
I am heartened by the information gathered in the poll and am keen to see another one, possibly at the turn of the year. Contribution sent.
PS:
McCluskey of Unite union in a long interview on Radio Scotland re: Stevie Deans / apology from the Prime Minister is cut very short indeed by the interviewer as McCluskey starts to praise the actions of the first minister for saving the plant.
pps; bloody ‘t’ key sticking aaarghh!
I don’t think being out of power at Holyrood is a sufficient threat to change labour thinking. If they would prefer a Tory government at Westminster, to a Labour government in an independent Scotland, then being out of power in a devolved parliament probably isn’t a major factor.
Their MSPs prefer unionism to socialism.
If there is a NO vote, I can see the only realistic chance of Scotland getting Devo-Max is if the SNP won over 30 Westminster seats and held the balance of power.
Perhaps we would see tactical voting to achieve that, but the SNP tend to get squeezed out of general election campaigns and TV debates, so it’s a long shot.
We are making good progress, but if the YES vote doesn’t break through 40% by next spring, then I suspect the best plan of attack is to campaign for independence for a better Britain.. a new and improved union – an alternative devo-max, so to speak
DON Deef Lugs thats that Derick Batemane telt aff 5.55
Rite awe yous lads n lasses am fed up gittin threatin letters fae the TV Licence office wuld yous explain by E Mailin bbc Scot why im no payin ( staged events ) ( BIAS reportin ) vent yer spleens hiv a laugh they might get the message REV could you provide a E Mail ady fur BBC SCOT ( LICENCE NUMBER 3596781864 ) C MON piss them rite aff ( CRASH MAILIN .co .INDY
Whits the bettin odds o G 4 S gittin the contract fur the Commonwealth Games ( HANDS INVERTED BACKWARDS ) FFS
Cheers Ronnie 🙂
Onwards @ 5.40pm
You might be right, as regards Labour leadership thinking (London, and Scottish, if such a thing exists…) The Scottish voters are just treated like “election cattle”, as we say in Finland (sheep would probably be the more appropriate Scottish/UK term). These figures – around a half of their 2011 Scottish voters ready to move to other parties no matter what is the referendum result, FFS! – should be a wake up call for SLAB.
But Johann Lamont’s first speech as the shiny new leader of SLAB was all about SNP-bashing, and, almost, as an afterthought, how “people have stopped listening to us”.
WTF? “People have stopped listening to us.” Shouldn’t it be YOU, Johann, and your party, that should listen to the people? You know, the ones you actually want to vote for you.
The problem for SLAB is that they have to listen to their Westmister masters, who’re hell-bent on winning the middle-England vote. Not the people – their actual voters – in Scotland. So what do they do to try to win elections in Scotland? Lie, twist, dissemble, claim credit for other parties’ achievements, sling wild accusations, resort to smears, innuendo and name-calling.
What a travesty of a political party! They’re even nastier than the Tories. The Tories at least have policies and principles and you know what you get… well, almost, but SLAB and the Labour party in general are truly despicable because they try to masquerade as “the people’s party” and an alternative to keep the Tories out (on UK level) while pursuing almost the same policies as the Tories.
The shame of it is that there are plenty of decent Labour folk in Scotland. People who still believe in the old principles of fairness and social justice and all that. They just don’t get their voice heard when the leadership is totally Westmister-focussed. (I’m surprised LFI folk haven’t been expelled from the party – they don’t follow the official party policy on independence.)
Sorry about the rant. [embarrassed smiley]
Oh, and another thing.
I founf the SNP voter figures interesting as well. These are all people who voted for the SNP in the 2011 landslide.
In the event of a No vote in referendum, only 59% would vote for the SNP in the next Holyrood elections. In the event of Yes, 72% would do so.
As an indy supporter, I would’ve thought that you keep voting SNP (as the only credible vehicle for independence) until independence is achieved, then you might go to pastures new.
But I guess this shows that the 2011 landslide – and it really was incredible, it even took the SNP by surprise! – was partly an endorsement of a competent SNP minority government, partly a protest vote.
However, it’s encouraging that if Scotland votes Yes, more people want the SNP to be the party to guide the fledgling independent country through the first wobbly years. 🙂
“SCOTLAND WILL FLOURISH”…..when we reap our own harvest and ring our own till!
without INDEPENDENCE it’s all academic.
@ lumilumi – I think the poll shows that regardless of what we think, Scots as a whole will see the question as settled on the result of the referendum, I think the poll results show a steady drift to acceptance of the possibilty of breaking the union and a realisation that that would be positive for Scotland.
lumilumi says
“What a travesty of a political party! They’re even nastier than the Tories.”
Thank god for a plain speaking Finn
I’ve been saying that for years and people look at me as if I were mad
in my view the tories don’t even hide their complete hatred towards anyone who is not a millionaire, which is despicable as it is, but the party of the people who profess to care about their fellow man are indeed a most disgusting crowd and hence my response to JLT on the “No place like home rule” post where I stated they would get a vote in an independent country only after the current population are dead,
but back to the tories, it gets to be a common refrain that what you see is what you get with the tories, but since when do those disgusting creatures get to represent a tiny proportion of the country when they create policies that favour only a tiny percentage of the electorate who voted (sic) for them.
So much for “were all in it together eh?
Paula Rose @ 8.29pm
I had to read your comment several times (English is not my native language), but, yes, broadly speaking, I think, I agree.
Scots are slowly drifting ever more towards independence but you cannot move mountains in a few short years. In that way, the SNP’s majority in Holyrood and the referendum came too soon. To be honest, I don’t think even Alex Salmond in his wildest dreams thought we’d be here now. Less than 11 months to go to a real, genuine independence referendum.
However, it’s a unique chance, and I hope Scots grab it, because it’ll be a long time before another such opportunity comes along. Unless something totally radical happens in the UK, the UK political set-up, or world events or whatever.
But the genie will not go back into the bottle so Scotland will be independent.
I went off to look for that Jenny Hjul comment about the panelbase poll and saw this
“Sir, – T Tolland, in his letter of May 16 sneers at Mona Clark’s question about whether we could negotiate a re-entry into the UK should independence go horribly wrong and asks who has said: “Please take us back under British rule?” He is convinced “nobody – ever” has.
Bad news Mr Tolland. In my travels I have worked in many of our old colonies. Since independence, I think it would be fair to say that the indigenous politicians, many up to their necks in graft and corruption, would not like to come back under British rule at all. They are robbing their people blind quite nicely on their own.
The people who matter, however, and here I am talking about the ordinary working people of these countries, may have a different perspective altogether. Many of them have in fact said to me: “I wish the British would come back to run this country”.
Perish the thought that good honest Scottish politicians would be involved in corrupt practices. However, given the apparent propensity of some politicians everywhere to fill their pockets at the expense of the people, it is not altogether impossible that at some future date Mona Clark, who was incidentally my tutor in political science at university and knows her stuff on politics, may in the end be right.”
Captain Ian F. McRae.
17 Broomwell Gardens,
Monikie.
I think Im going to throw up
‘Captain’ gives the clue
Redundant weaponry never used, Like illegal wars killing and maiming millions, costing £Billions, tax and banking fraud beyond belief costing £Billions and increasing poverty and deprivation worldwide. The Feeble fifty costing 1/2Billion a year. Mire than the ‘Room tax’.
Scotland raises £60Billion+ in tax revenues. Get back £48Billion,while the rest disappears into the black hole of Westminster, unaccounted. Westminster spends £720Billion – £20 Billion more.Total revenues raised in the UK £610Billion (including £40Billion the Royal Mail/Pension + £6Billion BoE scam) Westminster is full of crooked/warmongers. Criminals should be in jail.
Scotland outvoted 10 to 1. The Scottish economy held back by the dead hand of Westminster. Scotland depopulated by Westminster. A 40million diasporia worldwide.
Scottish enlightenment – invented telephone, TV – telecommunications which led on to the Internet. The 1979 win. Scotland could have been Independent by now, with a much better economy. More equal and prosperous, with less poverty.
Do not miss the chance again. Vote YES with confidence.
‘Home Rule ‘ Lloyd George a Liberal, partitioned Ireland, and granted the Right for a State of Israel, the Balfour agreement.
Like Captain McRae, I worked in a number of former British colonies and (particularly in Nigeria) heard expressions of disgust at the corruption and the venality of politicians. However, I do no recall any indication of nostalgia for British rule.
What makes the “Captains ” comments all the more galling is his home town of Monikie in the county of Angus, the birthplace of the country known as Scotland.
Scaraben
Oddly enough I did – but it was from a group of Yorubas bemoaning the power of the Hausas
Any idea when the tables for this bit will come out?
Can’t see the info in the already available ones.