Reading between the lines
We’re a bit bemused by a story reported in the Herald this morning, which makes a fairly dramatic headline claim:
“Scottish voters are turning strongly against independence, according to the latest opinion poll, which shows the cross-party No camp charging ahead with a record 20-point lead.
The snapshot by TNS BMRB – taken after both campaign launches – puts those against independence on 50% and those in favour on 30%; the latter figure being the lowest received for independence in five years of surveys by the Edinburgh-based pollster.”
We were even more bemused when we went to the TNS BMRB site to examine the details and found no mention of it. Now, we’re sure the Herald hasn’t just made it up and that it’ll appear shortly, but the odd thing was that we DID find mention of some other polling by the same company on the subject, conducted just two weeks ago.
The research, dated 25th June 2012 and which strangely we don’t recall being highlighted in the media, gave a very different picture. It was actually an investigation into various wordings for the referendum question, and on the Scottish Government’s proposed version the picture was very different.
Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?
YES 40%
NO 60%
The Herald’s story claims that the 50-30 poll was conducted between 27 June and 7 July, a period starting just two days after the earlier report was published and during which time essentially nothing happened in political terms, with the Parliament on holiday for most of the time. So it seems highly unlikely that any dramatic shift in public opinion would have taken place in the space of a week.
The numbers in the Herald poll, of course, only add up to 80%, leaving 20% undecided (who have presumably been excluded from the numbers in the earlier research). And whichever way you slice it, that makes the Herald report somewhat misleading. 20% has been the approximate size of the gap for several years, and as we’ve previously noted we’re still in the middle of a gigantic outpouring of “Britishness” propaganda. If the Union can’t make significant headway now, it never will.
In fact, in another story under another misleading headline, the Herald’s spin inadvertently reveals the reality – what the latest poll indicates is in fact a boost in support for a “devo max” option, which had been slipping in the polls. Over coming months, the overwhelming likelihood seems to be that public demand for a second question in the referendum will be seen to be crushed by the Unionist side. It doesn’t seem too difficult to predict which way that will tilt opinion, as a nation unsatisfied with the status quo is denied a middle way and forced to pick sides.
There are over two years to go in the referendum campaign. Any side proclaiming victory now risks not only looking arrogant and foolish, but indulging in fatal complacency. We encourage the No side to do so.
The Herald loves this sort of stuff so I wouldn’t worry too much.
The No vote needs to be broken down to Tory supporting status quo-ers and LibDem and Labour devo maxers who hate the Tories.
Any attempt to add them together as being anti independence is silly. It is like saying 75% are against having london control all financial powers as now, the status quo.
Unless this is the question in an opinion poll where a majority is a cert!
Do you agree that the status quo should continue with no further powers for Scotland and Westminster deciding all taxation matters including control and spending of all oil revenues?
I like it. Even better:
Do you agree that Scotland should remain in the Union, continue to spend billions on Trident, continue getting involved in illegal wars, and have most of the decisions about its finances made by Tory governments elected by the south-east of England?
YES/NO
All this shows is that a small change in wording a question can have a big impact on the result. Do you really belive the leading way the Scottish Government sets out the question is fair? Let’s see what the Electoral Commission recommends.
“Do you really belive the leading way the Scottish Government sets out the question is fair?”
See here:
link to wingsland.podgamer.com
Do you agree that Scotland should be governed by a party it overwhelmingly rejects?
Do you agree that fewer powers make us stronger and more powers make us weaker?
@Willie Zwigerland
It’s a referendum, not a poll, and no-one is going to be fooled into choosing the ‘wrong’ option by what is essentially a simple, clear question.
@Colin Dunn
Proof by assertion, love it. I do take your point that it’s not going to alter the final result, but I’d be firmly in the camp of at attempting to minimise all bias, so would axe the leading ‘do you agree’ portion of the question.
@Willie Zwigerland
During the ‘discussions’ of the “Let’s subjugate Scotland Committee” the leading lights of Westminster pro-dependency parties ignored all the evidence that in a referendum the precise wording of the question is marginal AT BEST on the result. Perhaps as little as 1%. Of course Davidson stated in his usual way, “I would rather the 1% was on my side!”.
On this matter, I agree with Ruthie, “… a fair and decisive legal question, which I welcome.” Indeed it is.
Democracy in action!
@Willie Zwigerland
“Proof by assertion, love it.”
What is proof but assertion, ultimately ;). However, I recall one unionist-promoted poll which showed that the proposed question actually resulted in a lower YES vote.
” . . I’d be firmly in the camp of at attempting to minimise all bias, so would axe the leading ‘do you agree’ portion of the question.”
I don’t necessarily disagree with that view, but It’s up to the SNP. They got the overwhelming mandate and have the right to set the question they want. Ultimately it’ll come down to what they think is the best public relations option.
So the wonderful united Westminster parliament of 300+ years can only muster 50% love with this poll? Even in the middle of this gigantic outpouring of “Britishness” love propaganda. Hardly something to shout about. You think France, USA etc will have 50% love? No it will come in at almost 100% love.
How do you decide what version of a question is “leading” and which is the “right” one? The one which gives the result you/those voicing the complaint desire is the obvious answer when people start on that old gripe like Willie has. Even during the “seperation” campaigns investigations the expert pollsters made it clear it would have little impact anyway. Time to change that record. Negative and petty complaints repeated endlessly has only gotten you so far.
Coming up with alternatives that you hope gives results nearer to what you desire and then proclaiming that they are somehow more “fair”, etc. is clearly a transparant and weak attempt to try and exert influence on an issue or referendum that the unionists no longer have a mandate or ability to influence (remember – all those years previous the unionists denied the chance for this referendum, so hush now and let someone else have their chance that you squandered for so long). The unionists lost control after failing to deliver and countless years of ineptitude and apathy. Now someone else has got their time to show what can be done after people got fed up with the lies and ineffectiveness of the past.
Two years to work out what way you want to vote. That is more than long enough to avoid any magical “mesmerism” from the question that the unionist fearmongers speak of. Of course at the same time they bizarrely objected to the idea of people having any time to think about such important issues too (alternatively demanding no referendum and then having it instantly, etc.)…hmmm.
The article also appears in the Scotsman with a bit more information … the poll was conducted with just over a 1,000 responses.
This is a new poll.
Here is the press release
link to tns-bmrb.co.uk
and the tables
link to tns-bmrb.co.uk
Hmm, interesting ….
TNS BMRB Scotland’s head of polling is Chris Eynon. His name crops up in support (unstated) in two Bitter Together/No articles. One is from the Guardian’s Unionist cheerleader, Severin Carrell, dated 26th January, 2012, and the other is from today’s (9th July, 2012 ) Telegraph.
His statements are more or less the same in both articles.
The Guardian:
““As a professional market researcher, I regard the wording of ‘do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?’ as leading rather than neutral and would not use this form of question in any survey or poll which I was constructing on these grounds.
I understand why this is used – through the desire for a yes/no answer – but it does not give a balanced option, as would ‘do you agree or not…’””
The Telegraph:
“Chris Eynon, head of pollsters TNS-BMRB, said the question was “leading rather than neutral” and the company “would not use this form of question in any survey or poll”.”
The Telegraph article is more relevant and gives an interesting, though, of course, bias viewpoint on the referendum question(s).
By the way, TNS BMRB is part of the Kantar Group. The CEO is Eric Salama, who “… is an advisor to the UK Government on a variety of issues.”
For me, that sort of information, right away, signals a red flag. Can these pollsters really be seen as ‘neutral’? Are they expected to subtly skew results to support an agenda? I mean, this swing from one-point in favour of independence, to 20-points favouring the Unionist status quo in Scotland … Is that believable? Yes, poll figures rise and fall over time… but by a margin of 21 points? Really?
Of course I want Scottish independence and my bias will always show through. But I’m deeply sceptical of these kinds of ‘polls’ and their ‘results’ showing support for the Unionist status quo ever-increasing, especially when it’s the MSM that’s trumpeting them the loudest. Am I right to be on my guard at ‘evidence’ such as this? … Or am I being paranoid?!?!
Never assume pollsters, the people paying them or those organising it all are neutral. No such thing with people, really, but in that area it’s all the rarer.
Just because your’e paranoid ……
Actually, I think it’s unfair to suggest that the professional pollsters set out to skew the results. That certainly happens when clients pay a pollster to ask a particular question – for example last month’s chicanery by Reform Scotland via the ICM poll.
These particular questions from TMS-BMRB have been asked in an identical fashion since 2007.
I don’t find it in the least surprising that when independence was a vague aspiration, support was higher than it is when serious questions are being raised.
That’s quite normal, when the prospect of significant change seems a distinct possibility.
What is, perhaps, of greatest significance is that while support for independence and the status quo are both down 3% since January, support for Devo Max is up by 7%. Around three-quarters of Scots seem happy with the constitutional status of Crown Dependency – with only defence and foreign affairs left at Westminster.
Not enough independence for my liking, but for us oldies who suffered through the 1979 referendum, the massive increase in demand by Scots for a massive increase in control over our own country is very significant.
Oldnat,
I’d agree it’s significant. It gives us something to work with. I am taking it as a given that the old parties will not move an inch on adopting devo max.
Because it is in their gift, not the SNP’s nor Hollyroods. They have to move if they want to claim that centre ground as their own. Their complete unwillingness, so far, to make any offer whatsoever appears almost designed to alienate that demographic. Which is a really strange strategy, is it not?
(Although I read somewhere or other that the final ‘offer’ to Ireland before they split off was far more generous than the previous offers. Obviously it was too late in their case. I really ought to find out a bit more about that.)
Do you agree that Scotland should have the Queen as head of state, looking after its own revenues including all oil monies and removing nuclear weapons from Scotland as an independent country, or do you think that Westminster, (currently under Tory and LibDem decision making), should continue to control all Scottish financial decisions and pay Scotland a decreasing lump sum annually in real terms to cover England, Wales and Northern Ireland’s growing deficit?
Then watch the numbers!