Quoted for truth #30
The Scotsman, 19 September 2013:
“Only one in ten voters would prefer the next General Election to result in another coalition government, a poll has found as Nick Clegg sought to convince voters it was in the country’s best interests. More than two thirds (67 per cent) would prefer to see an outright victory by one party.
We touched on this yesterday, but it helps to emphasise just how remote the chance of any sort of centre-left coalition arising from the 2015 UK general election is. With YouGov currently showing Labour and the Tories neck-and-neck and the media bigging up a “recovery” that in reality doesn’t stretch beyond the M25, it gets clearer every day that a Labour Party led by the catastrophically unpopular Ed Miliband has no hope of outright victory.
On Wednesday Clegg’s speech to the Liberal Democrat conference emphasised that his ambitions were limited to being a party of permanent coalition, but the voters have made it pretty clear what they think of that idea. We learned yesterday that a staggering 67% of those who voted Lib Dem in 2010 plan to vote for someone else in 2015, and today we may have discovered the reason why – nobody want to risk another coalition with Nick Clegg in it. For good or ill, we’re getting Labour or the Tories, except not Labour.
We’ll take any bets. The referendum choice IS independence or the Tories.
Well quite,why do we think Douglas Alexander is shouting about his post NO cross party blethering shop, they’re, I think, hoping to show that by promising a pact with the Tories and the Lib Dems less people may be put off by an inevitable Tory win in 2015, when it comes to future Westminster plans for Scotland. Labour is in a bad, bad, place.
The only coalition that I think will be popular would be a Tory/UKIP government.
Ordinary tories would like it because they want a referendum on Europe and UKIP will ensure that happens, while Fargage and his motley crew appeal to other tories because of their stance of immigration and the welfare system.
This is the only coalition I see happening.
Lib Dems are dead ducks, as are Labour.
Yep, I’d go as far to say that UKIP will hold greater power over the government after the next election.
@tartenfever: The only coalition that will be popular in England would be a Tory/UKIP government…
Powerful stuff from Kerevan:
link to newsnetscotland.com
“For good or ill, we’re getting Labour or the Tories, except not Labour.”
There is no “good” in that choice, none whatsoever.
The Libs are under the misconception that by being in a coalition government they have enhanced their credibility.
The public, however, now see them as inept opportunists who will ditch their policies and principles for a sniff at the seat of a ministerial car. This was proven by the Scots public in our 2011 general election when they were reduced to a handful, and I’ve no doubt the same will happen at the English general election in 2015.
Re Duggie Alexander, I’ve always been of the opinion that he’s a very careful thinker on the constitutional aspect of life, or rather, how it affects his life and, by extension, his career. Although he is, by nature, an opportunist professional politician, with one eye on what’s in it for him, he isn’t a fool. I strongly susupect that he is carefully positioning himself into the middle ground. Regardless of what the result is next September, Douglas Alexander has to have a pathway available to further his career. So he’s now (very carefully) opening the Pandora’s box of potential extra powers for Scotland. As we get closer to the actual vote, I predict that we will see more of this kind of language from him. He’s trying to set himself up as a moderate, soft Unionist. If there is a Yes vote, then Alexander will have judged the mood and will be in a position from where he can move into a career in Scotland, having championed himself as a listener and mover for change. Cynical it may be, but perfectly understandable. It will be interesting to see if any other Labour MPs representing Scottish constituencies start to move in this direction.
No takers.
The prospect of a Tory/UKIP coalition scares me sh1tless. I hope the good ship Scotland has sailed far away from that iceberg. These are cheery thoughts for a Friday!
Craig- I cannot see Danny boy getting any sort of political career in Scotland. Like the rest of his party they are tainted by association with the tories. They have colluded in the introduction of some of the most draconian laws we’ve seen. Any creditibility he might have had is gone. Folk have long memeories. I suspect there are many lib dem politicans considering alternative careers at the moment.
I’d say Clegg will have driven the Liberals back 50 years to a party of around 6 MPs at the next election.
Without proportional representation they had only 2 seats in Edinburgh. These two seats will only be one seat in Westminster terms. I don’t imagine that they would be likely to hold anything else in Scotland.
They have become an irrelevance.
So a Tory government it is, if Scots are daft enough to miss out on their one change of independence. And even, perchance it were a Labour government, would we notice any difference?
Dismal prospect.
Sorry of course I meant ‘Dougie’ and ‘labour ‘ polictians Getting confused with between Danny and Dougie. Could apply to both of course.
Who rattled dougies cage anyway?
I think we should get along to Ladbrokes and put a few pounds on Tories for next General election – Not that I want that (As we’ll be independent) . But the odds always get reported i the MSM, and a good set of odds on the Tories getting in will help the YES vote.
This ‘Alexander’ confusion must end – Dougie’s on the left, Danny’s the other one:
link to images.icnetwork.co.uk
How could anybody vote for these people in an independent Scotland .they have all fought tooth and nail to stop it , hopefully their careers in Scotland are over .
Flash forward to September 18. You’re in the booth, and you’re still a DK. Your pencil’s hovering. You want to vote yes you think, but you’re wondering still. Then you remember the polls showing the rise of the Tories and the papers yelping about UKIP, and you see the Scotland you want disappearing. Very firmly you cross the Yes box.
@CraigM
This started in March, nothing new.
link to newstatesman.com
Maybe the Alexander Brothers revamped..different party’s but same politics and same selfish interests. No way should these two and their kinsmen & women be allowed to ever represent the constituents of Scotland post September 18th 2014.
It’s easy for us to write off UKIP as a joke, with no prospect of wielding any real influence. I’ve mentioned it here before. I’m astonished at how many S.E. England friends express respect and support for Farage. Goes along the lines of “Yes I know he’s objectionable, but….” and then go on to say how he’s the only politicion addressing their real concerns.
When pushed further, I’m gobsmacked at how many would like to see Boris and Nigel as a team in No. 10.
The same people have gone from friendly banter on the Scottish referendum, to frothing anger on the issue. Really angry. Makes for great sport though. Fish in a barrel.
Dougie is an Atlanticist, he’ll be wanting a cushy top civil service job, an ambassador to somewhere preferably Washington or the UN representing Scotland’s interests (as well as his own) of course. In fact I can see many former Unionist MPs eyeing up these kind of jobs after Independence when their current gravy train hits the buffers.
O/T Sorry but can’t resist posting the bona fide Alexander Brothers in full flow … cheesy I know but I was brought up on it!
‘It’s here that my heart lies, it’s here I’ll be free’
Dcanmore – maybe Jim Murphy can be put in charge of decommissioning trident.
Don’t underestimate the Russell Johnstone factor that Danny can play on up there it’s the Liberal Inverness equivalent of “My parents voted labour so I must also..”
Dcanmore says: @ 10.15 am
Wee Dougie is a fantasist..can anyone tell me what this charlatan has contributed to the betterment for his constituents or to the Scottish people at large in his time as an MP. If he has ambitions of being an ambassador then he will better find another country to represent.
I love this pic of Dougie Alexander with the subliminal message from his lectern :))
link to rx.hu
@elizabeth
Excellent, in Scots too!
@elizabeth: purfect!
@Albalha: I know. A wee in-joke for north of the border
I’ve just sold a puppy to a couple of these frothing Tory/UKIPPERS. Home Counties, upper middle class hunting fishing shooting set. All tweed, Range Rover, and empty Highland holiday home.
Unprompted by me, they went off on an angry rant about Salmond and his percieved threat to the establishment, and the irresponsibility of the referendum.
Wait till you see this pup’s kennel club name, which I get to choose. Any suggestions?
Aye, Labour’s ‘Atlanticist’ comrades. Stick each of them in a barrel with a packet of hob-nobs and a 3-litre of Frosty Jack’s, and set them adrift somewhere off the west coast. With a fair wind and favourable currents they could end up in the Caribbean.
@Ananurhing
ScotiaLibre
Yes Morag, I’ve just spotted both my spelling mistakes. Politician, and perceived. I’ll go sit on the naughty step.
@Ananurhing
Duggie Dug?
@Ananurhing-
You could call the pup ‘wingsoverscotland.com’
@Ananurhing says:
Puppy’s name:
SAOR (free)
Sorry for O/T but apparently local radio claiming police want to cap rally numbers at 12000, does anyone know anything about this?
I am buzzing with excitement might even go to bed early so it comes quicker:o)
Ooooh, I wouldn’t make it too subtle. It would be a shame if they didn’t get it….
Ananurhing says:@ 10.35
How about “eh’m a subsidy junkie” but only for the next year then you and your like are not welcome in my beautiful country unless you all drastically change your attitude towards my homeland.
@McNic
I’ve just e mailed the Rally person, that was posting here some days ago, to ask, if I hear back I’ll let you know. She may pop on herself of course.
Ananurhing – Freedom Flies with Wings Over Scotland has a nice ring to it
Morag, Don’t worry. I’ve already warned them and it’ll be fully explained with gusto. Front runner at the moment is ‘ Don Roberto of Hail Alba’. In honour of Cunninghame Graham. Max 24 letters.
@Morag
So something like Flodden Culloden James the First?
@Ananurhing
The puppy has to be called ‘Shits Everywhere’
The Scottish referendum has become simple in explanation and choice – YES or TORY.
Balgayboy. “Eh’m a subsidy junkie” Big smiley face thingie.
Sorry Stu. Didn’t mean to subvert the thread. I shall desist now. Thanks for all the brilliant suggestions.
Albalha, cheers!
[The Scotsman article] helps to emphasise just how remote the chance of any sort of centre-left coalition arising from the 2015 UK general election is. With YouGov currently showing Labour and the Tories neck-and-neck and the media bigging up a “recovery” that in reality doesn’t stretch beyond the M25, it gets clearer every day that a Labour Party led by the catastrophically unpopular Ed Miliband has no hope of outright victory.
No it doesn’t[1]. Because people don’t vote for or against coalitions. They vote for (candidates of) individual Parties and the resultant Parliamentary arithmetic is what determines the composition of the govenment. Even if not a single person ‘wanted’ a coalition, that or a minority government would be what resulted if there was no overall majority and some of the Parties.
And of course it the two biggest Parties are evenly matched as in the latest polls suggest, then a coalition is more likely.
Also if the ‘recovery’ “in reality doesn’t stretch beyond the M25” (I think you’re forgetting the more affluent bits of the Home Counties but I take your point), the majority who live outside those sacred limits will possibly decide that the reality of their circumstances will trump the sounds of joy coming from the Great Wen. So you’re really arguing against yourself.
As it happens Labour also has an inbuilt advantage because of the way the Tory vote is spread[2] and the Ashcoft marginals polling also suggests that they and the Lib Dems may also be doing better than average in the seats that matter. So the chance their winning or being the biggest Party is still high rather than “remote”.
Nothing is certain of course and a lot may happen between now and 2015, but it does seem a little rich to move from denouncing ‘Project Fear’ to trying to scare people with the prospect of the certainty of Tory rule. Especially as when in the latest Scottish YouGov poll voters were confronted with the question:
Imagine that it looked certain that the
Conservative party would win the UK general
election expected in May 2015. How would you
then vote in a referendum on Scotland’s future?
and it only shifted opinion from Yes 32% No 52% to Yes 36% No 51%. The ‘undecided third’ may be looking for more positive reasons to support independence.
[1] As always with these polls how you ask the question may give different results. For example in YouGov’s tracker question If you had to choose, which of the following options would be best for Britain?, the latest result is:
Majority Conservative 28%
Con-Lib Coalition 10%
Lab-Lib Coalition 10%
Majority Labour 30%
(Don’t Know 22%)
which gives 20% for coalition and only 58% for a single Party.
[2] For example if you put the YouGov 36-36-11 poll into a seat calculator, Labour are 40 seats ahead of the Conservative and 3 seats short of a majority.
“Because people don’t vote for or against coalitions.”
Yes, I know. You’ve missed the point. People don’t want there to be another coalition, so they’re not going to vote for the only party that can realistically make one happen – the Lib Dems. (Leaving UKIP aside for now, as if they get any MPs at all I can’t see it being more than about 10.) Voting for one of the big two, or a fringe party, or staying at home, all amount to the same thing – voting against a coalition.
re: Douglas Alexander’s call for a National Con-vention. We have been here before.
Remember 1979, Labour’s 40% rule, the Tory promises of jam tomorrow, and what proceeded after that – 18 years of Tory rule. This is just history repeating itself.
It took 20 years to establish what Scots voted for in 1979. Must we wait another 20 more years for Westminster to make up its mind again on whether to grant more powers to a Scottish parliament.
Remember to the 1989 Claim Of Right, “We, gathered as the Scottish Constitutional Convention, do hereby acknowledge the sovereign right of the Scottish people to determine the form of Government best suited to their needs, and do hereby declare and pledge that in all our actions and deliberations their interests shall be paramount.”
Douglas Alexander’s proposed National Con-vention is just a crude attempt to kick constitutional matters into the long grass. We know that the Tories will oppose it, we know too elements of the Labour party will oppose it also.
The unionists had their chance to propose an alternative question on the referendum ballot – namely Devo-Max. They refused to do so.
As things stand Scots have a simple choice in 2014 – YES or TORY.
Ananurhing says:@ 11.04
Please excuse my cynicism. Unfortunately when u described the purchasers attitude it was a reactive reply. Nevertheless it does not distract from the attitude emanated from these people and the unfortunately accepted “scottish cringe” by some of our fellow countrymen/women who kowtow to these types. Typically our so called Scottish Labour and Liberal party representatives who have literally shown they are prepared to embrace the policies of another country to sustain there own selfish ends regardless of the real aspirations of who the deem to represent.
@Gillie
I posted D Alexander’s first full National Convention speech in March higher up – this is the line everyone needs to publicise from it, never, ever land.
‘So this evening I ask: Could we in 2015 gather together a National Convention – “Scotland 2025” – to chart a new vision for an old nation for the next decade?’
link to ukpollingreport.co.uk
Dave must be looking that that ‘Lab majority’ prediction on the side bar and thinking to himself ‘If only 59 MPs were removed by 2015’….
@Ananurhing
It has to be Alex Salmond.
I wouldn’t want to see any of the current labour MP’s back in an Independent Scotland, for one single and very important reason, they are to a man/woman neoliberals who worship the free market. Can you really envisage Murphy, Darling or Alexander championing the ‘common weal’? When we are independent these people should be resigned to the dustbin of Scottish history.
A National Convention is a complete irrelevance to the present referendum debate. It is also a constitutional impasse, because any discussion about further powers for Scotland short of independence raises the issue the West Lothian Question and the distribution of powers throughout the UK – which in turn would require input from the other nations if a coherent constitutional settlement were to be achieved.
Given the failure of the attempt to introduce regional assemblies in England, the fiasco of the AV referendum and the car crash of Lords reform, it is clear that there is neither the will nor the forum for such an extensive constitutional debate.
I have lived through 20% of the present Union and I’ve had enough of it. The only way significant change can come about is through a Yes vote.
Ananurhing – Tha mi à Alba
Time is going to tell , The subject of Westminster politics and there relevence to Scotland is on the slow boiler, will heat up well, ready for dumping by the time of The Ref, and yes orientated MSPs and MPs will start comming out of the cuboard, ready prepared for new jobs in Scotish politics. Things rolling along well. The smear campaigns now will have to be dampened.
To be honest the notion of a radical discussion which included the SNP sounds like something that maybe should have happened a wee while ago. Nothing wrong with the idea but Labour’s inability to come down on the side of any firm policies on pretty much anything doesn’t give one much hope that this will bear fruit. Dougie might have good intentions but does he have the ear of Milliband and the Labour spin doctors? We have seen Sarwar and Baillie with their leggs swept from under them. Lamont making ridiculous accusations about land sales and next to nothing about actual policy.
Vote Yes to avoid disappointment
@Anurathing
Surely Alasdair of Bradan Gaelic for Alexander Salmon(d) and Wee Eck for short
It has to be Alex Salmond.
That’s kind of what I thought. Straight out, no obfuscation, let them live with it. Though Mosstrooper’s idea is also fun, so long as they knew.
@Gillie
The BBC report says of Douglas Alexander’s proposed convention (link to archive.is):
—-
In that context, he believes an agreed approach by the parties committed to the Union would be a “tangible answer” to the question of what happens if Scotland votes No to independence.
—-
Tangible: Perceptible by touch.
There is no convention just now therefore it is NOT tangible.
There is only the promise of a convention therefore it is NOT tangible.
There is the statement that “there will be discussions about how devolution can be improved” – NOT tangible.
There is no commitment whatsoever to changing devolution as it stands.
If devolution is a journey then we have stopped. It’s either parked forever or going into reverse gear.
Mosstrooper
Alastair of Bradan, I quite like that. Wouldn’t it be Alexander? Yeah! Zander Bradan of Hail Alba.
Although I quite like Handclapping’s Duggie the Dug suggestion. I’ll put it to the all female board.
Alasdair is the Gaelic form of Alexander. (smiles at the thought of arseholes confounded)
Mosstrooper
I have to say they’re not really arseholes. They’re actually nice people who believe the shite they’re fed by the Mail, Times, Telegraph, BBC etc. Still though, more to be fucked with than pitied.