Pick a card, any card
Let’s start with a nice simple flat-out lie, from the Daily Record:
The imaginary figures for future UK oil revenues released yesterday by the Office for Budget Responsibility (which is amusingly pretending it has some sort of idea what the proceeds from the world’s most infamously volatile industry will be 25 years from now when it can’t get anywhere close to accurate three-MONTH predictions) saw the OBR downgrade its OWN previous figure of £37bn – not the SNP’s – to just £2bn.
Let’s just say that again – despite the lie in the Record’s headline that the SNP had been predicting a figure of £37bn, that number was actually a projection by the OBR.
(In fairness to the UK government-funded organisation, at least the report does include a disclaimer saying basically “Look, nobody can actually predict oil revenues, we’re essentially just pulling figures out of our arse here”.)
A reasonable person might at this point wonder why anyone would still bother listening to a body that had just slashed its own previous guess by an eye-watering 94% in the space of a year, when you could simply buy a dartboard and a blindfold, get drunk and produce your own “projections” that were every bit as likely to be accurate, but that’s not even the half of it.
Since its creation in 2010, the OBR has projected long-term oil revenue figures of £131bn (2011), around £65bn (2012), £56bn (2013), £37bn (2014) and £2bn (2015).
Even these estimates, however, are subject to huge amounts of variance depending on circumstances. In 2013, for example, while the “central” figure was £55.6bn, the OBR actually said that projected long-term revenues could be anywhere from £40bn to £81.5bn, which is a heck of a margin for error.
(It’s perhaps worth noting that that margin for error in a single year’s forecast, at £41.5bn, is bigger than the £35bn change the Record is shrieking about.)
The OBR regularly points out the futility of predicting oil and gas receipts:
It even produces graphs showing how wildly predictions have been wrong in the past:
…and how absolutely nobody has any clue how even a single factor like the barrel price will develop over even the short term. The 2014 report shows that the US Energy Information Administration wasn’t prepared to narrow its own forecast for 2018 down any more than “Um, somewhere between $75 and $162”, and how a whole slew of organisations from the OBR and the EIA to the IMF, the OECD and the World Bank all totally failed to predict last year’s crash:
But in the Scottish press, none of this matters. It’s not just that the SNP alone is held to be bad at predicting the oil price, and it’s not even that the OBR’s wildly-wrong forecasts get falsely blamed on the Scottish Government – we’re told that the Nats actually somehow KNOW what the price will be, but then deliberately LIE about it.
Like the endless succession of gullible saps who date Calum Best or Katie Price in the apparent belief that they’ll be their one true love, the newspapers lap up every new OBR forecast as a gospel truth, despite an unbroken record of comically spectacular failure on every level. The 2015 OBR long-term oil-revenue forecast is now, staggeringly, just 1.6% of the sum it predicted four short years ago, yet we’re told to believe that its blind stab at how things will be in 2040 is in any way meaningful.
(The other curious thing is that all of the OBR’s Fiscal Sustainability Reports back to 2011 claim to already factor in things like the cost of North Sea decommissioning. So we’re not sure why the organisation appears to have suddenly just realised this year that decommissioning is a reason to downgrade its previous projection by 94%.)
These mad fantasies are then extrapolated into wild assumptions about how income tax will have to go up to 3,000% and the entire NHS will have to be broken up and burned for fuel, all of it based on figures that are – by a vast distance – less reliable than Dave King’s claims about how much money he’s going to put into “Rangers”.
It really is a mystery why people don’t trust the media any more.
You say the papers treat the OBR as gospel truth, but come on, they don’t care about the truth.
All they’re after is a headline to slap the SNP with and the OBR just gives enough of an air of “officialness” that the lazier of their readership will just believe it without questioning.
Holy F… 131bn to 2bn in 4 years wow. The 2014 graph looks like a crazy spider which by the way they would probably be better getting a crazy spider to stagger over a page of numbers and draw up the predictions from where the spider lands..
Is the referendum over yet?
Last year’s “Blow for Salmond” headline has simply been updated to “Blow for Sturgeon”.
It does highlight the importance of FFA if all the media are treating it as a serious threat.
Hang on! Is that not the paper that had “The Vow” on its front page promising FFA? It has ditched the “Scotland’s Champion” logo. The irony.
Some mugs will blindly buy these rags, and will therefore blindly believe their tosh! And so we go round and round.
Nailed it. Essential reading for every tabloid reader. If you ever do a book of your best work, this piece should be near the front!
This is the absolute nutbaggery of the unionist argument. They hysterically point to oil revenues “drying up” via these “predictions”, whilst being willfully blind to the fact that as an increasingly rare commodity with ever increasing demand the Saudis are – at some point in the near future – going to stop flooding the market with cheap crude as a stop-gap answer to fracking and the price is going to sky-rocket again.
But that’s not even half of it. We’re being asked to believe that Scotland would have to somehow plug this $7.6bn deficit which – wait for it – won’t exist if we don’t go for FFA or indy. Er… how does that work? Oh, it apparently down to the “pooling and sharing”.
Well, what lunatic applies an English county average spend to Scotland which is 1/3rd of the UK landmass, has a coastline longer than Spain’s, and 1/10th the population? OF COURSE it’s more expensive to provide services in Scotland! The $7.6bn is an artificial construct – an accounting trick designed to deliberately mislead. And by extension of its “logic”, the UK can’t “afford” to be an independent country either!
But the most galling thing is that this focus on deficit is an absolute red herring. The Tories have been using this to bash Labour for over 5 years, and Labour – in their utter ineptitude, let them. The austerity argument has therefore become that most insidious of underhand lies, the “well-known fact”. In truth, it’s total bollocks. Economies depend on new money being generated, and the only way to generate new money is via debt – there’s no magic money tree growing in the Bank of England. The money is created by public and private bodies taking out loans and then distributing that money in the economy. The debt can never by paid off, because if you try, you are effectively strangling the money supply and crippling the economy. The way the monetary system is set up, we MUST have debt, or the system comes crashing down.
This is why 79 leading economists have signed an open letter to Gideon decrying his latest back-of-a-fag-packet hare-brained idea of limiting future government borrowing. It’s an economic illiteracy on a stunning scale.
I was just in our local Spar topping up the electric and the girl asked me if I wanted a free Daily Record…I politely declined and she smiled saying they were having trouble even giving them away…apparently the Sunday Mail is doing the same tomorrow…turns out they’re having to return bundles of the rags even when they’re passing them out for free!
It’s worse than their Vote NO or else Project Fear hysteria last year. Fair enough they are clearly not going to give up any actual control of the Scottish economy, let alone Scots oil industry.
When EVEL kicks in, its game over and its the grotesque liars of our media all led/coordinated by the BBC, that will keep farting out garbage from OBR.
And no matter how you voted last month, that’s how unionism destroys Scottish independence UKOK style.
And now for my next trick……….
I think you’ll find that these statistics are extremely reliable, and exhibit a very solid linear relationship of sorts.
The relationship is that the more likely ffa and independence become, the smaller the OBR predictions become. This is a one-way street, so don’t expect them to go back up again, unless it’s to intermittently prop up some other ukok bullshit tall tale.
I wouldn’t be surprised if oil was “worth” negative £600 billion in six months’ time.
The OBR should be renamed the Ministry of Plenty. It is utterly useless and exists only to f*ck with people’s minds.
Conspicuously absent in this posting is any analysis of what the SNP has said about oil revenues.
The independence white paper stated oil revenues of £7bn in the next financial year. At best, this is economic incompetence, at worst, a misleading lie. I tend to the former given the SG’s poor grasp of arithmetic.
The SNP has form here. You may recall the admission from John Swinney that predictions of oil revenue would need “downward revision after independence”. Shouldn’t let the truth get in the way until the vote is over!
On the question of oil revenues, the most useful graph is not oil price but oil production. It shows an almost straight line decline from a peak of around 250m tons in 2000 to around 80m tons last year. That would suggest that any prediction of increasing oil revenues is being very optimistic. Especially when you have promised the oil companies a 40% reduction in corporation tax as the SNP did in the referendum.
Cue the concern trolls who will be put in to bat for the London Treasury.
They are such a major joke, like some kind of comedy parody outfit masquerading as a govt dept.
I’m pretty sure they are already using your dartboard and blindfold system.
Just a pity there are no decent journalists that care about truth and rigour, I literally couldn’t believe the current forecast was down to £2B, but then I thought, oh wait this is just a coincidence they have announced this whilst Sturgeon is in the USA??!!
We should buy shares in Pampers, cos you can smell them govt types from here.
There’s yer lies, get yer free lies here
Read all about yer free lies here
The truth’s out, yer free lies are right here
They wonder how the scaremongering doesn’t work. Perhaps if they didn’t use such ludicrous figures people might take them a bit more seriously. The boy who cried wolf is fast running out of believers.
Phil – SNP calculations were based on OBR predictions. How was that a lie? Unless of course you accept that the OBR is lying…
Arch propagandist and Goebbels Academy of Truth luminary, Blair MacDougall, repeats the figures as if Gospel.
He is then asked for wisdom on how best to tackle the deficit.
What sane person asks MacDougall for economic advice?
Would you ask you garage receptionist to fix your car just because she’s approachable and smiles a lot?
Newspapers adept at blowing invariably suck.
However what is heartening is the growing response on sites I read from folks who are educating themselves re economy – and so the voice will become stronger, grow louder, we won’t be hoodwinked again. I have many to thank but it was encountering Margaret & Jim Cuthbert and John Jappy’s work which lit the blue touchpaper for me! Keep writing, keep responding . Thank you.
Then Norway respondes to downturn in prices with a plan, taking a slightly higher proportion of the interest on their fund, but still well below their self imposed 4% limit.
The UK response; newspaper ‘wankery’ and Blair MacDougall.
I think the SNP need to take the bull by the horns, and write an indicative “budget for Scotland”; which would show (a) what they would expect to spend, and on what (b) where the money would come from and (c) what they would reasonably expect to borrow.
OTOH if this has already been done, could someone point me in the right direction? (just not aware of where it might be, my bad). TNX.
All goes to show that you should never believe anything touted as ‘gospel’ in the media. It usually doesn’t take long to disprove the content of such ‘gospel’ offerings by UK owned think tanks & media.
If we can tear their figures apart here then just think what John Swinney can do with them! Such a good man has found his niche in this SNP government, the only group of politicians standing up for Scotland in the whole of UK.
More power to their elbows, they are all determined not to let Scotland down.
Some things have to be taken on trust in the formation of a newly independent Scotland. I always ask myself who has the most to gain from publishing utter drivel being sold as ‘gospel’ & it all boils down to ‘Follow the Money’. OBR is funded by UK government so it has to keep doing their bidding to keep their jobs (created by George Osborne in 2010 to lend credence to his financial planning abilities). Likewise IFS-funded mostly by the Treasury. Neither are independent & use semantics & obfuscation to sell WM’s line that Scotland couldn’t support itself as an independent country.
I am not Scottish but English & live in England but after 63 yrs of watching WM govts fail to represent the people of UK, enriching themselves & their cronies, filling the HoL with placemen & women who’ve done their bit in talking up successive governments/individuals etc I have to say that I know who I believe & it isn’t WM by any stretch of the imagination.
Have faith in your own home-grown SNP government. Support them when it’s needed and berate them when they’re wrong. That is functioning democracy not the sham WM offers the UK.
They will get there in the end so keep telling yourself that indy is coming because to this outsider it truly is
Phil Robertson, you’re just one more unionist word playing.
link to nasdaq.com
All the OBR shysters have to do is take a 10 year average price line at between $90 and $110 a barrel of Scots(Brent) oil.
Britnats say US shale gas production pulls down the barrel price but shale gas production in the US is over a decade old now.
Britnats like you have won though Phil. Project Fear worked.
I thought we were going to run out of oil before 2040 so someone is lying then
I knew a phil once…he was a w*nker too.:S
Stew,
If only The National, or The Sunday Herald would ask to use this article of yours in its entity,(’cause it’s a hard hitting piece, as usual!), thereby giving it a much wider public airing.
I’m willing to bet there is a strong correlation between the plummeting OBR forecasts and the meteoric rise of the SNP’s popularity. If these trends continue, I wonder when Scotland’s oil will reach negative value?
Robertson’s and Robinson’s made sweet confections and conserves.
One of them had a golliwog on the jar.Later it was stripped from the jar for being racist.
England needs Scotland more than Scotland needs England. !!!
GOT IT ,GOT IT !!!
My prediction is that that price of Scottish oil will shortly drop into negative territory and before long they’ll be giving bottles of petrol away free with the Daily Mail.
@Tom McGregor.
Exactly, in fact, 2017 was mentioned at one point for the big ‘drying up’ of oil.
Probably just before the local elections!
Unionist rhetoric might work on a bowl of goldfish, but not on anyone with a decent memory of the last thing they said to try bullshit the Scottish people.
Silly Alex Salmond, and him an oil economist too. What does he know about oil prices!
We should listen to proper economists like Gideon. He did a full training in towel folding before becoming Chancellor of the Exchequer. OK it was a family firm. But that just shows good breeding.
Didn’t blinky boy Flipper tell us the oil would run out in 2017?
Whatever the revenues from oil, wouldn’t it be better to get 100% of them rather than a grudging 9%?
Just saying like …
Thing is, me personally, I don’t care about the oil. I just want out.
Where I live in Ayrshire, working in Glasgow, there’s no connection with the oil industry. Folk don’t think about it in their daily lives. It doesn’t cross our minds until it’s brought up in the crazed media.
I accept I have a low awareness of how much the oil industry constitutes in terms of hard morney and tax revenue of the Scottish economy but as a total layman can I ask who does know this for sure because it seems to me to be shrouded in the utmost secrecy.
All I ever hear about from unionist politicians and the media are these fantasist projections. Don’t think I have ever read or heard anyone from that side coming out and actually saying how much is actually coming in from it and I suspect I won’t ever. I wonder why that is?
Regardless of how much it is or isn’t, I still want out. I guess I am another crazed irresponsible nat who wants to see Scotland in economic ruin within a year of independence rather than prosper under Englands enlightened benevolence and largesse.
By the way, whatever happened to the one day wonder story during the GE of gazillions of barrels under southern England?
“CameronB Brodie says:
13 June, 2015 at 1:49 pm
I’m willing to bet there is a strong correlation between the plummeting OBR forecasts and the meteoric rise of the SNP’s popularity. If these trends continue, I wonder when Scotland’s oil will reach negative value?”
My thoughts exactly.
If our oil isnt worth anything and we are subsidized by England then why dont they just throw us out their union,aye we all know why.
Now i have over many years seen this lie be used but i have never seen them go this far before,desperation comes to mind as it is not even close to being believable.
The OBR are a bunch of onion fuds you could get a better prediction from a primary 1 class,and why is nobody asking why this institution is always so far of the mark and just who pays these muppets to come up with these figures,and isnt it time they got their p45`s.
As usual anything they can try to blame the SNP with they will.
If this doesnt scream indeyref2 i dont know what does.
Next they’ll produce a negative number and tell us only the union can stop Scotland and all the oil being sucked into a black hole.
Seriously, at what point does the Scottish public say, enough is enough, we’re no longer falling for your pish any more.
Surely the propaganda lying UK media can only fool Scotland for so long before we realise they’re controlling our minds for their own gain.
Lollysmum
It braw to have you with us.
Humanity over fascism!
Spoke with a fascinating gentleman yesterday, who many years ago, was CEO of a newspaper belonging to a group of titles, in of all places Zimbabwe (Rhodesia when he was there).
As he recounted the upheaval due to guerrilla warfare in the late 1970’s & early 1980’s (the period during which Robert Mugabe acquired power), he said that before, during & after its murderous transition, only two things still sold newspapers there; football & sensationalism.
The evidence, helpfully presented by the Daily Record’s comically written front page headlines & parochial obsession with Old Firm drama, suggests that this is a phenomenon, not restricted to banana republics run by dictators.
Daily Ridiculous!
Us oldies can remember when we were told that oil would run out before the end of the twentieth century!
That’s some error!
@MajorBloodnok says: 13 June, 2015 at 1:24 pm:
“Phil – SNP calculations were based on OBR predictions. How was that a lie? Unless of course you accept that the OBR is lying…”
Ach!, MajorBloodnok. you must realise this is the trainee weekend shift of official Unionist Trolls. We shouldn’t be discouraging the poor things. There is always a small chance one of them might even eventually become half-decent as a troller and one day might just might fool an un-alert independence supporter.
I know! I Know! but I’ve always been an optimist.
“I’m willing to bet there is a strong correlation between the plummeting OBR forecasts and the meteoric rise of the SNP’s popularity. If these trends continue, I wonder when Scotland’s oil will reach negative value?”
Tuesday lunchtime.
Remember,the UK Government is in charge of the figures and the revenues. Any calculation of predictions by The Scottish Government has to be taken from the figures produced by those who want Scotland to look poor and subsidised. Then those in charge say something like ” Look,told you so, you are too poor and even though its worth nothing,we’ll do you a favour and ,er, manage it for you.”
On the figures they produce,we must expect a stampede as oil companies abandon their oil platforms and leave the country,after all,£2 billion would only pay for a fraction of Crossrail.
Is it true that the National has never asked you for any input, and if that is true, does that tell us all we need to know about the National.
Well, we need to remember who set the OBR up- Gideon! This was one of his first pieces of work (?) that he did when he got the reigns for the countries economy.
Even it’s name has absolutely no bearing on the Tory view of economics- Responsibility! Ha ha- Aye right!
The OBR is funded by the UK Treasury to the tune of £2million plus per annum. So, we, the UK taxpayer, are paying for this shite to feed the roots of the UK media in order that it stays alive and flourishes.
It seems that we are also paying for both sides of the Carmichael action in the Court of Session as crowd funders for the electorate of Orkney and Shetland to bring the action, and as taxpayers to defend the state establishment who are defending the action. He was a state employee at the time, and will have many backs to cover, so of course they(we)will pay for his defence.
Until we have independence or FFA and can decide whether we want to spend Scottish money on what is important to Scotland, we will continue to pay for those things Westminster decides is important to us.
Time for the Nats to leave the sinking ship.
jimnarlene
Lets be honest, you’d have to try hard to trip over that one.
Some folk are expressing concern about Nicola Sturgeons foray into America because they don’t like America’s politics
Don’t hate the media become the media, we have and we are changing it
Westminster, now we’re involved from the inside
America, no point in shouting “We don’t agree with” you through a locked door, you have to get in to talk
and now they have had a look at the First Minister they’ve decided Hey she’s OK
As I posted on the previous thread, this is Showbusiness
It’s how you get noticed, it’s how things get done
We’ve been shouting at closed doors for how many years?
Nicola Sturgeon is opening all the doors at one time it’s positively amazing
We need to back her up in promoting Scotland to the world
then we’ll start winning even bigger
It’s why they’re pumping out as much lies as they can at the moment (They’re Running) “On Them”
@Phil Robertson
Phil, you’re a cretin.
You’ve posted the same bullshit in the comments of an article in which Stu has just thoroughly debunked said bullshit.
As for production, it has fallen because the oil is harder to get at than in the ’80s, and not unreasonably, oil companies like to maximise their profits. There is, at conservative estimate, over $1tn of oil left in NS fields, and the oil companies will be going to get it as soon as the Brent price recovers. And yes, it will recover, because its current price is an artificial low due to the OPEC states deliberate over-production in an attempt to stymie US fracking – a strategy that has largely failed. You can’t run conventional transportation on natural gas though, nor does it produce the wealth of hydrocarbon-based products used in an enormous number of products, so the price of crude will be going back up. Everyone in the business knows this – except the OBR it seems.
What could the “impartial” OBR setup by George Osborne in 2010 and stuffed with conservative academics POSSIBLY have to gain from fudging the figures? Oh… wait…
But I don’t expect you to take my word for it as you’ve clearly drunk the BritNat Kool-aid, so why not hang around Wings for another 12-18 months and we’ll see who’s right, eh?
In the meantime, aren’t you late for Jim’s leaving bash?
G H Graham said at 2:16 pm
Spoke with a fascinating gentleman yesterday, who many years ago, was CEO of a newspaper belonging to a group of titles, in of all places Zimbabwe (Rhodesia when he was there).
As he recounted the upheaval due to guerrilla warfare in the late 1970’s & early 1980’s (the period during which Robert Mugabe acquired power), he said that before, during & after its murderous transition, only two things still sold newspapers there; football & sensationalism.
The evidence, helpfully presented by the Daily Record’s comically written front page headlines & parochial obsession with Old Firm drama, suggests that this is a phenomenon, not restricted to banana republics run by dictators.
Perhaps you give the UK too much credit?
If Westminster is claiming we’re subsidised then give us FFA and if they’re correct then continue subsidising us like they’ve always done. If it turns it we’re not in fact subsidised and there is no ‘black hole’ then there’s no need for a subsidy and they’ll save billions every year. Everyone’s a winner, no?
Paula Rose
We’d better get a jildy on then. You stock up the tinned foods and I’ll sort out the water and biomass generator.
“SNP lies!!!” and “Sturgeon’s plans smashed!!!” are not only convenient bogeyman headlines, they are also a very calculated and cynical diversion from the real reasons oil prices are so incredibly volatile: OPEC and Saudi Arabia.
Monstering ISIS (and, often as not, ordinary Muslims in general) is such a popular pastime of the popular press you’d think that the extreme Wahhabi versions of Islam propagated by the tyrannic, despotic House of Saud would be a target for the tabloids. And the fact it was scions of the Saud family who funnelled money into ISIS would warrant at least a mention in their analysis of the geo-political and global economic chaos that shreds even the best guesses of the OBR. Maybe?
Perhaps just a mention of Saudi Arabia’s dominance of OPEC determining production quotas and therefore manipulating oil prices to a ridiculously artificial low as key element of their strategy to push their hated Shi-ite arch-enemies in Iran towards economic collapse. And the fact there is next to sod all the combined clout of Barack Obama, Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Angela Merkel or David Cameron can do about it. No, just blame Nicola Sturgeon for being a stupid liar.
There are issues about a transition to FFA within the UK, mainly to do with how borrowing powers for a Scottish Government would be managed and regulated. I’m a big cheerleader for FFA because it should be good preparation for independence, but more particularly it would allow us to more latitude to restructure our economy for the future.
Peak oil has passed for Scotland and probably the wider world, but without any significant substitute on the horizon it is reasonable to assume Saudi Arabia will cut production when it suits their political and/or economic requirements, and prices will spike once again. And dip. And spike. They like to keep the rest of the world on its toes too. But the oil reserves in the North Sea remain substantial and are not about to become worthless in the short, medium or long term. Quite the opposite. We need to get control of them while there is still potential to generate reserves and long-term investment for the modernisation of our economy and society.
Meanwhile everyone can sell more arms to Arabia and turn a blind eye when these medieval thugs behead female rape victims or, like today, continue with the 1,000 lashes and 10-year sentence imposed on Raif Badawi for having the nerve to blog the idea that maybe a wee bit more democracy from Mecca might be a good thing.
And we think the Rev gets a rough ride.
Oil price is volatile.
It is subject as much to geo-politics and conflict as demand.
Since the end of WW2 the middle east has seen devastating wars every decade.
Question for OBR and their projections. If Saudi Arabia or Iran or …… was bombed today what would happen to the oil price tomorrow.
Oil price recovery’s time will come.
FFA or independence is a long game. More importantly it has to be OUR long game.
Yup we are once more under full attack by Westminster et proxies,ie all Unionist institutions inc their friendly labour party.
The “Scottish” MSM are some of the very worst,and the most deceitful.
When this happens they are scared of something, it is now FFA. So the contrarian in me says we really should be going full belt for it. They have reasons to be scared, we need to give then more.
Just thinking – is there a chance that the oil price is deliberately set low while BP et al are, right this minute, pumping and shipping oil out of Iraq at a rate of over 3.5 m barrels a day? (About a third more than under S Hussein.) For free! In payment for Iraq’s debt for uk ‘reparation’. The lower the price, the more they can take, offset against the so called debts. But what do I know? Maths was not my strong point, just like Gideon. Can anyone enlighten me?
o/t
RT reporting that Iceland “to become the first European state to beat pre crisis economic output”
Meanwhile, just as i was starting to wonder why us Scots bother getting out of bed in the morning, i realised we still have the pleasure of working hard to keep all Osborne’s pals happy.
OT: Live now.
Greg Moodie Book Signing Interview
As another giant UKOK/BBC lie machine hits overdrive, what actually do our imperial masters piss away Scots oil on?
Cash for London 2012 Olympics? raid Scots oil
link to theguardian.com
The country’s leading accountancy experts say in the report, commissioned by the Treasury select committee, that the surprise increase in tax to 32% from 20% on offshore drilling profits introduced in the March budget will damage UK competitiveness.
link to theguardian.com
Billions in Scots oil invested in London, result
Olympic legacy ends in lethargy as sporting participation plummets
• Number of people playing sport once a week down 222,000 in six months
• ‘It simply isn’t good enough. It’s time for a change,’ says sports minister
Thanks again proud Scot buts.
@Lollysmum
Well said and couldn’t agree more.
As far as the Daily Record and the OBR are concerned? We’ll take their views under advisement, give them the respectful consideration they are due whilst fully aware of both their respective agendas and file them under silage pit where they belong.
Is there a campaign current to encourage people not to buy the Daily Record? There should be. The Record should be seen to be as poisonous as goods from Apartheid era South Africa and avoided with the same vigour!
O/T
Greg Moodie Book Signing event being livestreamed on Independence Live now
link to livestream.com
Out of curiosity I went hunting for a really long term oil price chart.
link to macrotrends.net
Not Brent but West Texas Intermediate Crude
Figures from from (just a little bit )before I was born till now. Fascinating stuff.
I congratulate WOS for exposing the lies of the DR and the utter irrelevance of the OBR. but is it not time to also explode the myth that Scotland’s future success is dependent on the price of a barrel of oil. The future of the planet will be assured only when the world stops using carbon as the principal source of energy. Scotland is the envy of the world in having abundant resources of non-carbon potential energy; fresh water, wind, wave and tidal. Add to this extensive seafloor mineral reserves and a highly educated workforce and an independent Scotland could be one of the most prosperous and Eco-friendly nations on Earth.
@Major
My prediction is that that price of Scottish oil will shortly drop into negative territory and before long they’ll be giving bottles of petrol away free with the Daily Mail … in the neck as a fuse?
People aren’t as thick and accepting as the papers think. On the other hand papers themselves are thick as they genuinely seem to believe they have a continual ability to be able to convince people that black is white and the sun revolves around the earth. They really do believe in themselves as being influential, rather than something to pass the time of day with and then put in the blue bin.
In their turn activists from “the other side” blithely quote these ridiculous claims from the papers and use it to bash the SNP, making utter fools of themselves. As a result the support for the SNP has risen; from around 40% to 50%, and after the General Election, from 50% to 60% for Holyrood in the constituency polls, and 50% in the list, on top of a 10% for greens.
So long may it continue, the unionist rags making the case for the SNP, and for FFA and Independence. More power to their printing presses! Warp 10, engage! And indeed, they really really are warped and engaged in their own discreditation.
Even if the OBR decided to release objective figures the unionist press would skew them to the advantage of Westminster.
I’m hoping most Scots are now aware of the media dirty tricks campaign that has no end,and never will.
If we’re to win independence we will require a devolved media.
FFS! no this again. I’ve got to the stage that I just ignore awe this pish. We really must have them worried when they start again on the price o the ile. Keep it up folks, nice to annoy them.
The headlines from the Record are absolute bilge. Nae wunner it’s sales are drappin like a stane.
Is this awe thon Alex Salmond’s faut again, stirring up FFA at Westminster, and having the cheek tae ca’ their bluff. Oh I do hope so.
As I understand it the fall in oil prices is due to the vast amounts of oil being produced by the US fracking industry. This has increased supply but without the concurrent increase in demand due to the lack of growth worldwide.
The Saudis could easily have counteracted this by decreasing production and forcing prices up. They didn’t do this for one reason, to make the fracking industry in the US suffer. This ploy has worked, new fracking production has slowed down dramatically.
At the same time oil has also been under threat from renewable energy, the fall in oil prices has seen a slow down of investment in research and development in alternative energy. Again something that is beneficial to OPEC.
The Saudis can afford to sit back and watch as their competitors suffer and wait for prices to begin to rise again. As soon as they see prices increase over a certain period then they will reduce production and force prices up even higher.
The fracking industry in the United States will have learned a valuable lesson. They know that further investment will be incredibly risky, the Saudis can easily increase production at the flick of a switch and force prices down again.
Oil prices have been here before several times and have always recovered, it’s not guaranteed of course but more than likely. Something you’ll never hear in the Daily Record.
Dear Daily Redcoat,
It appears you have learned precisely nothing since the referendum nor since the General Election. We have your lies covered. We are all talking to each other now and dissecting your utter pish in seconds.
A wee bit of advice–try running some factually correct stories. And oh, it might also be good if, once in a while, you can try and talk Scotland UP as opposed to your relentless negative bile.
Get a grip.
Of course the story is only negative if you assume that Scotland would manage the resource as a mini-UK. If we set up the investment in a different way… link to rt.com
….if only!
I cannot understand why people cannot see long term investment in Scotland versus short term projects in the South of England/London.
Wake up people we could still start a fund.
Turning the lie on its head. The Tory controlled OBR projects an utter Armageddon for Oil and Gas in the UK. The sooner we are free from those economic and political fascists the better.
I suspect there is an entirely different agenda going on with the Daily Redcoat when printing pish like this. It’s not about the price of oil per se but about painting a narrative that Scotland’s economy is entirely dependent on oil. It isn’t and this has to be webcast loud and clear to counter this abject rubbish from the anti-Scottish press.
Let’s look at the OECD list of wealthiest nations -in particular 16 that are further up the list than the UK.
1. Luxembourg – no oil
2. Norway – lots of oil
3. Switzerland – no oil
4. USA – some oil but not as much as it used to
5. Australia – some oil
6. Austria – no oil
7. Ireland – no oil
8. Holland – no oil
9. Sweden – no oil
10. Denmark – no oil
11. Canada – some oil
12. Germany – no oil
13. Belgium – no oil
14. Finland – no oil
15. Iceland – no oil
16. Finland – no oil
Is anyone else seeing a pattern here?
Any Government would be nuts to base an economy on a single volatile commodity and the SNP have stated time and again that they believe an independent Scot;and would be sufficiently wealthy for FFA even without oil.
I happen to agree and have more than a dozen wealthy small nation examples to prove my point.
We get bread and circuses UKOK style, and knighthoods if you’re the right sort, 200 miles away from Aberdeen
link to nbim.no
The fund was set up to give the government room for manoeuvring in fiscal policy should oil prices drop or the mainland economy contract. It also served as a tool to manage the financial challenges of an ageing population and an expected drop in petroleum revenue. The fund was designed to be invested for the long term, but in a way that made it possible to draw on when required.
link to theguardian.com
Red tory Graun’s pushing Norway’s half a trillion quid petroleum fund for its stop using oil campaign but its still a shock to watch the teamGB liars in action, as they explain reality for our neighbours, not owned by safe and secure teamGB.
@G. P. Walrus says: 13 June, 2015 at 2:06 pm:
“Whatever the revenues from oil, wouldn’t it be better to get 100% of them rather than a grudging 9%?”
Actually, G.P. Walrus, we do not get any of the oil & gas revenues as they are all officially classed as being from the artificially created, “Extra-Regio Territories”, of the United Kingdom. These were invented and the UK treats them as the 13th territory of the UK. They include the Oil & Gas revenues and those from the Embassies of the UK.
So 100% of the oil & gas revenue goes directly to the United Kingdom Treasury. Now as around 95% of the oil & gas revenues are extracted from what is recognised, by the International Law Of The Seas, as Scottish legal jurisdiction, any reasonable person would expect that the allocations credited as Scottish earned revenues would be based upon geographic location, However, the UK is not in any way reasonable when dealing with Scottish matters.
They grab 100% of the revenues as UK earned revenues but when doing statistical calculations for the books of the UK. plc they allocate the shares on a population basis instead of upon a geographic basis. Furthermore you got it wrong – they credit Scotland with earning only 8.4% of the revenue and not the 10% that you thought they did.
Now remember we do not actually get that 8.4% – we are just credited with earning it for statistical purposes only. This, quite obviously, distorts the entire picture of how Scotland stands in relation to the other countries of the bipartite United Kingdom. That too, being a full equally sovereign Kingdom with the three country Kingdom of England, also distorts the whole relationship between the two Kingdoms.
Believe me these two facts are but a tiny scratch on the surface of the other, “Creative Accountancy”, that is the Establishment of the Westminster Chancery, (did I spell that correctly)?
I’ve highlighted this one many times too. The Grid Connection Scam. To understand this you must understand that electricity generated in the North of Scotland does not run down to the South Coast of England like water down a pipe. It is more like the power ring main in your house. The power is maintained at a level right round the ring main and no matter where it is drawn out by any equipment it is maintained at the correct level no matter where the potential is inserted to the ring.
Yet the most Northerly generators are paying around £30 per Kilowatt they add to the grid while the London based generators are subsidised by around £5 per Kilowatt they add. That is around £35 per kilowatt extra that Scotland pays and while Scotland exports to England over 26% of her Electricity England is a net importer of Electric power.
How can the Scottish Government ever find out the true figures when so many such scams are in place? That particular one is thought to rob Scotland of a minimum of £100 million per year. Not only that but the electric power providers, for example the one mainly for the northern Scottish areas, (they also serve the southern English areas), charge their Scottish customers more per unit than those in England yet Scotland exports over 26% of her generated output to England.
Scotland is ripped off right across the board in her dealings with the rest of the UK and it is all hidden by creative accounting.
Sorry O/T for those who are not on sky sports,and would like to see Scotland v Ireland, there are sites live streaming, just google and choose.
More lies about Scotland’s oil, which is being appropriated (stolen) from Scotland on a daily basis.
Honestly, I am sick and fed up of this tiresome sh*te. Scotland has a strong economy, WITHOUT OIL.
The unionist lying narrative is ‘oil good for London, bad for poor old Scotland’.
Unionist, anti Scottish lies yet again from the laughingly self proclaimed ‘Scotland’s champion‘, the Daily Record. Honestly, what a bunch of Scotland-hating, cringing, self serving wee j*bbies, running Scotland down yet again.
If you find these statistics unbelievable,,,,
I have others
I did find this interview from opec.
link to tinyurl.com
And this on fracking industry.
link to tinyurl.com
Andy-B says:
13 June, 2015 at 3:52 pm
I’m hoping most Scots are now aware of the media dirty tricks campaign that has no end,and never will.
The election of 56 SNP MPs last month suggest that they are (well, at least 50% of them). The diminishing returns for Project Fear continue to diminish. “Wolf” has already been cried too often.
Not that I believe the oil is relevant to Scotland’s Independence, but if we did not know already, we know it now, it would make no difference if an infinite supply of oil was discovered in the North sea, the unionist media would still tell us there is no oil, and as long as they can con enough people, they will always win.
I have believed for some time we will struggle if we don’t get an alternative independent TV news broadcast to counter the unionist shite. However, I am not sure how or if that will happen.
Oops – mistake on my list. Number 16 should be France.
Once again right on the button, where do these journalists get their degrees. Keep up the very good work.
OBR = Office for Bollocks and Rubbish.
Auld Rock
If this is the case the English will have no problem with giving Scotland the 6,000 Square Miles of North Sea including the Oil & Gas Installations that they nicked just before the Scottish Parliament was set up ?
Well at least I didn’t have to wait long for confirmation that the DR has not changed its spots. Will I live to see the end of the DR just as I have seen the end of the Scottish Labour mafia. It would be really nice. Since I was a child these two outfits have worked hand in hand to keep Scottish heads bowed. Words cannot describe the disdain I have for them.
They’ve pissed away hundreds of billions of Scots oil and their wont even show a Scotland Euro qualifier. Christ they’re hideous.
This afternoon BBC r4 news quiz/crap satire show had English comedian bring the BBC house down with “next referendum should only be held in England and that would get them their independence.”
BBC Danish cringer of the millennium Sandy Tostsvig laughed like a true true Brit.
Can the OBR give me tonights lottery numbers PLEASE !!
@michaelc,
“By the way, whatever happened to the one day wonder story during the GE of gazillions of barrels under southern England?”
Just siphoning it off now, should be arriving at Sullom Voe for redistribution to all and sundry, at a reasonable price of course
@major,
Good craic today.
I had a couple of days off sick from work this week and took to watching parliamentlive tv, not the edited BBC version. What a farce Westminster is. Everybody in Scotland should watch this and they would see their elected representatives and their country being ridiculed and insulted by sneering and smirking Tory and Labour MPs who know nothing about Scotland. The body language is so revealing.
Scottish Questions seems to be very little to do with the governance of Scotland and consists mostly of Labour and Tory MPs from English constituencies standing up to insult the SNP and waste everybody’s time with Better Together soundbites. It looked very much like they are colluding with each other. Labour are supposedly in opposition but it didnt look like that.
The FFA farce will consist of us getting sweet FA. The narrative will be – see we love you Scotland so much we want to subsidise you, we have saved you from the 7bn black hole and the crazy SNP economic illiterates.
Tory and Labour MPs: a newly aware Scottish electorate are watching you on TV. We can see what you’re up to, you are conspiring against the Scottish people. We can see on live TV what a farce the Union is.
Usual B-S from the usual suspects…
British Oil = Good for British economy.
Scottish Oil = Bad for Scottish economy.
You couldn’t make it up. No, wait, somebody just did…
Just back in, did Creepy Jim go?
@Croompenstein
In his resignation speech, he acknowledged the election defeat had been “terrible” for Scottish Labour.
He added: “If anything good can come from such a painful defeat, it is that we are free to be bolder in our message, to reach further into the population for talent, and to renew our organisation to better reflect modern Scotland.
“The defeat was traumatic and so it is right that, today, we announce a set of changes that are dramatic.”
Mr Murphy said that he does not have a new job yet but said he would be a source of “discreet advice” if asked for it by his successor, and will always be an “active and faithful servant” of the party.
But not gone yet!
Jim Murphy: “After I have made a speech on Monday… I will leave the stage”
PS:
Offside ref!
Footie:
@Glamaig
Yes I had recorded parliament live and watched a fair bit of it in background. The unionist parties hate the SNP, and the thing with hatred is that it’s blind and self-consuming. They think everyone, not just those in the House, laugh with them. Well, it won’t be long before people are laughing at them, the rUK electorate don’t like politicians full stop, and teh unionist politicians can’t help themselves, they really think everyone will agree with them, but their hatred will consume themselves. They’re doing a great job for Indy Ref 2.
Curiously Ian Murray didn’t do a bad job …
@Robert Peffers
Actually, G.P. Walrus, we do not get any of the oil & gas revenues as they are all officially classed as being from the artificially created, “Extra-Regio Territories”, of the United Kingdom. These were invented and the UK treats them as the 13th territory of the UK. They include the Oil & Gas revenues and those from the Embassies of the UK.
So 100% of the oil & gas revenue goes directly to the United Kingdom Treasury. Now as around 95% of the oil & gas revenues are extracted from what is recognised, by the International Law Of The Seas, as Scottish legal jurisdiction, any reasonable person would expect that the allocations credited as Scottish earned revenues would be based upon geographic location, However, the UK is not in any way reasonable when dealing with Scottish matters.
You’re *still* peddling this line. 83.8% is the best figure we have (source GERS), your figure is “just a made up figure from the figment of your imagination”.
Regardless, expressing percentages doesn’t really explain anything. What about the actual numbers.
Here’s the HMRC data with respect to tax receipts from Off shore Corporation Tax and Petroleum Revenue Tax for the last few years, and a comparison with the figures published in GERS as a total and the % estimates for Scotland (all figures in £ millions):
2011-2012
Off Shore Corporation Tax: £8,840
Petroleum Revenue Tax: £2,032
Total: £10,872
GERS: £10,958
Estimates for Scotland (88.2%): £9,668
2012-2013
Off Shore Corporation Tax: £4,393
Petroleum Revenue Tax: £1,737
Total: £6,130
GERS: £6,214
Estimates for Scotland (84.2%): £5,235
2013-2014
Off Shore Corporation Tax: £3,556
Petroleum Revenue Tax: £1,118
Total: £4,674
GERS: £4,766
Estimates for Scotland (83.8%): £3,996
2014-2015
Off Shore Corporation Tax: £2,073
Petroleum Revenue Tax: £75
Total: £2,148
GERS: published March 2016
Estimates for Scotland (?%): published March 2016
An unfortunate downward trend. 2011-2012 was the year that most of the SNP Independence White Paper drew it’s figures from (even though by the time of the referendum the figures for 2012-2013 were available).
It’s worth noting that GERS does estimate a wee bit more than what HMRC appear to report. GERS is of course an estimate.
Note the figures for 2014-2015 (the first year that was impacted by the drop in oil price), not too sure if there’s still more revenue to report certainly with respect to Petroleum Revenue Tax as that has “dropped off a cliff”.
(ducks for cover)
Time is running out.. any spare change for Kevin, Del and the team at independence live…
http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/going-forward–2#/story
Spot the correlation? 2011,OBR predicts O&G income of £131bn, SNP have six MPs; 2015 OBR predicts O&G income of £2bn, SNP have 56 MPs. Just coincidence surely?
And a wee kernal in James 123 post – “at the same time oil has also been under threat from renewable energy”. Seems Scotland has the two front runners in future energy provision. Oh dear, how will the OBR doom laden that scenario?
And Scotland is failing to meet its emissions target according to BBC Scotland. Oh dear. How about cutting energy production (coal-fired stations?), to supply only Scotland, target a circa 30% reduction, would help meet the emissions target. Westminster loves market forces and not only do they not pay for the Scotland exported energy, they charge us for connection to the National(?) Grid.Seems fair by Westminster standards, to cut production.
I too live in Ayrshire, Michaelc, and like you, I just want independence from Westminster.I have more than sufficient academic, work, and life experience to believe, in fact, know that we will prosper once independent.
Colin Rippey. 6.10
What took you so long Colin.
Colin Rippey.
I have just reviewed your post over the last 24 yours and wonder why you are here.
I smell pish!!!!
Colin Rippey at 6.10
The SNP and the YES campaign throughout the Referendum campaign made it very plain that Scotland’s public finances were not reliant on oil revenues and described these continuously only as a “bonus”
It is only the unionists who try to insist otherwise and only stupid people who react to this deliberate deceit.
I actually don’t care what the revenues from oil currently are so I don’t get the point of you list above. We have never had the oil revenues so how a drop in them can have any effect that can’t be sensibly dealt with I don’t know.
Are you supporting the suggestion that after 300 years of a union a clever, hard working country with more in natural resources than any other comparable country is an economic basket case
Some union that! It has obviously destroyed us.
So we had better just stay in it.
Or perhaps you are telling us that we are just too stupid and we should stay tied to a economy £1.5 trillion in debt with a massive deficit
Or perhaps you are just talking unionist shite.
#Colin Rippey
link to dailymail.co.uk
“Oil and gas extraction rocketed by 8.7 per cent on the month, the fastest increase since February 2014 as North Sea installations came back on line.”
@call me dave – Thanks for the info I don’t watch EBC so I wasn’t sure if Jim had gone. Not a bad result in the football for us but I felt we could have won that game, mind you I felt like that after the Poland and Germany away games
Spare a thought for Ecuador Ladies in the Women’s World Cup trounced 10-1 by Switzerland Ladies and not a Toblerone in sight..
@Colin Rippey – (ducks for cover)
FFS Colin away and skinny dip in Dalgety Bay, no one is listening to you. I am fucking sick of your constant put downs of my country, ok I get that you think Scotland is shit but it’s our shit and we don’t need you or anybody like you telling us it’s shit so please away back to kevverage and rejoice in how shit Scotland is…
(ducks for cover)
So give up control of Scotland’s oil industry to Holyrood *Colin* like now, pretty please oh *imperial masters*, we’ll be good, we *promise*.
Poor Jim.
Jim Murphy: “After I have made a speech on Monday… I will leave the stage”
Sorry the stage left you . The orchestra has played the finale. The curtains are drawn and the audience have not applauded – silence. The Jester is seen as a fool.
O to have such an ego.
We are still waiting for the Dissolution Honours.
I’ve just had a horrible thought – no they wouldn’t have the nerve would they – Lord Creepy Jim.
After all he’s never had a propoer job and who in their right mind would employ him and his monstrous ego.
$1 or $100pb It should be Scotland’s resource to do with as it will. Whether it be a sovereign wealth fund or to invest directly into the public pot. But it isn’t, its been under the stewardship of a government which has run up a £1.4tr debt and yes an eyewatering deficit which as I recall was to have been eliminated by the time of the GE just past, except it wasn’t.
I see precisely zero reason that the government system whose continuing economic model which has resulted in such a calamitous state of affairs has any competence whatsoever to rectify the situation. I certainly have zero faith in their somewhat coloured ‘think tanks’, institutions or experts. A body would wonder just what was their advice to government over the past eight years or more which has brought us to this point? Where were they when the shit hit the fan?
It is the true elephant in the room. That a system of government which has been in near absolute control of all revenue sources in these islands has managed to fuck it all up so spectacularly. But our journalists, Westminster politicians and supporters of same seem to have no answer to that simple question. Just how did they manage with all of these natural resources, all of the revenue streams available, did they manage to make such a catastrophic mess of the economy? Why should the public trust them to fix what they broke and just why should they listen to those the establishment deem ‘respectable’ sources of advice? Why should the public continue to pay for their mistakes?
It is a simple and inescapable fact, that successive Westminster governments and their mismanagement ARE the source of all our economic woes. So what’s it to be? Give them yet another chance to make our lives even more miserable, believe their ‘experts’, or perhaps start looking elsewhere for solutions?
I think Colin is having a dispute with Mr Peffers about Scotland’s “share” of the oil revenue (which we don’t get).
What I don’t understand is, if we have to pay £30 per kilowatt to add electricity to the grid, why don’t we stop doing it? Doesn’t sound like a good business model.
Don’t be too hard on Jim after all the more he shouted the more folk moved over to the SNP.
He’ll have shifted the chess pieces in his recommendations so that all the labour ex MP troughers will be able to weedle into the nominations list for the SG elections in 2016, in case the call comes.
If wiser heads prevail they will dump his report, along with him on Monday night.
PS: Footie.
Germany all over Gibraltar like a rash but have missed a penalty!
Like watching Psycho with your fingers in front of your eyes.
You know Gibraltar will end up in the cellar like mummy!
Maggie Thatcher’s Tory government urgently downplayed Scottish oil, which by the way,saved the UK. all the Westminster governments since have continued the theme.
They are just as they always have been and will continue to be, as they are addicted to the money our oil produces.
We are always going to get this from them, as they would be downgraded by the grading agencies across the world if we were to get it back.
Cost of debt would soar, ending in bankruptcy. That is the truth of the matter and why they are at verbal war with us again, addicts always do that for what they want/need.
Scotland is not allowed to benefit from it’s resources.
Just Westminster, in their corrupt eyes.They need it so badly.
6 month contract time for Jim’s understudy to take temporary control, step forward Mr Ian Gray as the pantomime continues.
not too sure if there’s still more revenue to report certainly with respect to Petroleum Revenue Tax as that has “dropped off a cliff”.
Colin its ok you can come out now from hiding and explain why our imperial masters refuse to give up the Scots oil industry to the Scots, who would really like it back now?
It should be no problem as the *widely respected* OBR explained Scots oil is now worthless, so why not *Colin?*
The head of the OBR, Robert Chute is marries to 2nd PUS in the Treasury. Say no more!
Jim Murphy:
“After I have made a speech on Monday… I will leave the stage”
“I am gone for ever.”
[exit, pursued by a bear]
Is he hanging around for a fitting at Ede & Ravenscroft?
Lord Murphy of Arden perhaps?
Wouldn’t surprise me. Him and that other great saviour of the Union, old ‘ink cartridge’ Broon.
@Glamaig says: 13 June, 2015 at 5:31 pm:
“I had a couple of days off sick from work this week and took to watching parliamentlive tv, not the edited BBC version.
Did you mean this link, Glamaig?
link to parliamentlive.tv
Stick that link on your Favourites bar and you can see The Establishment’s parliament any time.
BTW: Stick this one on your favourites bar for Holyrood TV: –
link to scottishparliament.tv
Pick a card, any card – Wings over Scotland – Ace of Clubs.
Och I’m fed up of all of the crap.
We are (or were) one of the richest wee countries in the world. Unfortunately the majority of our countrymen (women) were afraid. We stuck to the Union and now we get all this crap.
I’m not giving up, I just don’t believe all of the S**t I read now.
From Thomas Paine’s pamphlet, “Common Sense”, written in 1776.
Paine explains why the current time is a good time to break free of Britain. Primarily, Paine focuses on the present size of the colonies, and on their current capabilities.
He presents an inventory of the British Navy and gives calculations revealing how America could build a navy of comparable size. Paine recommends this as a way of ensuring America’s security and prosperity in trade.
Paine also argues that America is sufficiently small as to be united now. If time were to elapse, and the population of the colonies to grow, the same feeling of unity would not be present. Paine adds that if the Americans revolt now, they can use the vast expanses of uncharted land to the West in order to pay down some of the debt they will incur.
Paine says that as a colony of Britain, America lacks respectability on the international scene. They are seen simply as rebels, and cannot form substantial alliances with other nations.
In order to prosper in the long term, the colonies need to be independent. Paine says that, by declaring independence, America will be able to ask for the help of other countries in its struggle for freedom.
For all of these reasons, Paine says it is imperative and urgent that the colonies declare independence. Before Paine’s pamphlet came out, few colonists considered independence an option. Paine however, directly attacked allegiance to the monarchy, which had remained the last frayed connection to Britain.
———————————————————–
Sound familiar?
The KEY POINT to remember when considering global oil prices is that the US doesn’t have an economy, it has a protection racket:
link to en.wikipedia.org
House of Saud and OPEC sell oil only in dollars, and in return, US bashes anyone who threatens the arrangement (qv Saddam, Qaddafi).
Everyone else (China, Russia) needs USD to buy oil, so America stays rich by printing fiat oil tokens.
Once Russia and China combined get the economic and military clout to be the world police, and control the oil, America is bankrupt, and House of Saud is on a sticky wicket.
America was delighted with the oil price drop – the rouble collapsed and Russia’s ambitions are on hold.
The US/Saudi cartel just need ISIS to turn Syria into a failed state now, so there can be an invasion, and a nice pipeline via turkey to Europe.
The whole think stinks, and the geopolitical situation is more volatile than 97 octane. Scotland needs to get out of UK and out of NATO asap.
Or maybe I’m too cynical?
michaelc – u nailed it for me
@Paula Rose
Pick a card, any card – Wings over Scotland – Ace of Clubs.
Do you wish to change suit?
Am I reading this right? The OBR and msm are
expecting us to believe that there is only
going to be £2bn in taxation as their prediction.
Ok lets give them £3bn, we’ll take our independence
and we’ll take the “hit” on the oil.
It’s a £1bn profit for them and Scotland is free.
With the added bonus for them that they no longer
need to “subsidise” us and we will not upset their
Westminster establishment.
What’s not to like?
Any variation in prediction of oil revenues is as nothing to the rape and pillage of Scotland’s resources since the McCrone report was buried from public view.
Our “government” in London is nothing more than a cabal of liars,cheats and thieves.
Scunterbunnet: Everyone else (China, Russia) needs USD to buy oil, so America stays rich by printing fiat oil tokens.
For guidance on how to undermine US-Middle East oil monopoly study association of Latin American states: ‘OLADE’.
Great piece Stu. Embarrassing the Scottish and English media is what you do best. Mind you their journalists and commentators ARE fucking idiots. But one must not forget that their shit derives from that produced by an even bigger set of idiots at the OBR. No matter what it forecasts it is ALWAYS wrong. They wouldn’t forecast rain if they looked out of the window and saw that it was raining.
@Grouse Beater
Thanks, will look into it.
Geopolitical speculation and divining for armageddon can be fun, but really I just want my wee country back!
@Robert Peffers
thats the one
link to parliamentlive.tv
If you go to Archive you can pick out the session you want to watch and even individual questions. You can search for committees and watch the gory details there too. What a great resource. Thing is, before GE2015 I would never have watched this stuff.
I cant believe how sneering and arrogant the Tories are when seen in their natural habitat. They truly are the Nasty party. I half expect to see Alan B’stard walk by.
Stu is having fun with loads of tweets from last December about how Creepy Jim was being hailed as the new messiah by the unionist zoomstations and that we were all scared. Looking back on it I was never scared of Jim more sympathetic to him for thinking he could rescue a lost cause. But hell mend him and all his acolytes.
Also really sick of folk like Rippey who have zero imagination and epitomise the sad sacks who have kept us shackled to this shit union. They have nothing much to say but Scotland and the Scots are shite so better leave things to our social betters. Fuck off Murphy and Rippey.
Big heads up to the Faroes who have done the ‘double’ over former Euro champs Greece, now famous for more than murdering the shit out of pilot whales..
Neil, 8:58pm
Brilliant!
These latest ‘projections’ form part of the continuing Unionist economic narrative since the referendum, and particularly since GE 2015.
With independence, Scotland’s fucked.
With FFA, Scotland’s fucked.
After 300 years of Union, Scotland is (uniquely, it seems, among west European nations) an economic basket case. We are blessed with natural resources. We have a highly educated workforce. But that doesn’t matter. Our relative poverty is endemic : that is the indisputable inference from what Unionists say. The ‘greatest partnership in history’ has developed our whole economy to the point where we we can only sustain current living standards thanks to the largesse of our southern neighbour (note that you almost never hear a unionist say Scotland’s too poor, too wee, etc. The euphemism used is ‘pooling and sharing’).
For the sake of argument, and again assuming the unionist narrative as being correct, is it not in fact an indictment on the Union that after 300 years, where major macro-economic decisions have been and still are determined at Westminster, we are still not capable as a nation of surviving economically? “No, no” say unionists, “we’re not saying that. Scotland could survive, it would just be poorer compared to the rUK”. Well, let’s test that proposition. Where does the UK stand economically in relation to other European nations, some of whom are of similar size to Scotland (one of whom – Ireland – gained it’s independence from the UK less than 100 years ago) and have nothing like the abundance of Scotland’s natural resources:-
IMF 2014 List of World Countries’ GDP per capita:
Luxembourg (2nd)
Norway (6th)
Switzerland (9th)
IRELAND (13th)
Netherlands (14th)
Austria (16th)
Sweden (17th)
Germany (18th)
Denmark (21st)
Iceland (22nd)
Belgium (23rd)
France (24th)
Finland (25th)
United Kingdom (27th)
(Source : Wikipedia)
But let’s not stop there. How does the income get distributed? Because that is important for Labourites and their cheerleaders in the MSM, including the ‘thoughtful’ commentators such as Stephen Daisley. Wishing to remain part of the UK isn’t about wanting to be a unionist for its own sake. No, it’s the *best way* to secure social justice : pooling and sharing. So after 18 years of Thatcher/Major, 13 years of New Labour, and 5 years of Osbornomics, let’s take a look:-
‘The Equality Trust’, online:
“Out of the 29 OECD countries in the LIS [Luxembourg Income Study], the UK is the fourth most unequal.
Compared to other developed countries the UK has a very unequal distribution of income. Out of the 29 OECD countries in the LIS data set, the UK is the fourth most unequal, and within this data set it is the most unequal country in Europe”.
And they accuse us of refusing to believe the facts….
@Colin Rippey says: 13 June, 2015 at 6:10 pm:
“Regardless, expressing percentages doesn’t really explain anything. What about the actual numbers.
Balderdash and I answered you on the previous thread. Don’t you numpties ever listen? I point out to you that the UK provides doctored figures and/or uses creative accounting and you reply with several reams of more UK doctored figures. Simple logic tell us that Scotland is a net Exporter of power while England are massive importers of power.
Not only did Scotland export over 26% of her generated power into England but the UK Grid connection Charges charge the Northern Scots generators as much as £30 odd per Kilowatt they add to the Grid while subsidising London & the South generators by as much as £5 per kilowatt hour for what that they add.
Next up Scotland are net exporters of fuel and England are net importers of fuel.
Scotland are net exporters of food/drink and England massive importers of both and we even export water to England. In fact Scotland is the only part of the UK that could feed her population from her own agriculture.
And Scotland has a healthy manufacturing industry most of which is exported and we have a great creative/entertainment World leading industry not to mention other scientific, pharmaceutical and life sciences industry
We could survive very well even without oil and the SNP preached that throughout the entire referendum campaign but the UK media totally ignored that claim.
Now in case the point has flown right over you head all the evidence shows that the so called national debt is that of England as England imports far more than she exports and that is the recipe for debt.
Now toddle off and annoy others. I’m done with your stupidity.
Interesting comment from over on WGD, esp. the links
link to weegingerdug.wordpress.com
Some serious implications for Scotland and the wider UK.
As Mr Stewart (no mug) said to Nicola, “Can we invade you?”)
Just what is the long time future in shuffling papers in the city of London?
Did Colin come back yet? Oh well, so the tragic burden of the Scots oil industry the Britnats dont want to burden Scotland with, and one more UKOK academic explains FFA is a disaster by telling ever bigger whoppers to lecture us why.
Hope to God his lectures are more accurate
link to notesfromnorthbritain.wordpress.com
A clown writes-
“I do not believe the Scottish Government are serious in their pursuit of FFA. I believe it is a stunt. Certainly, at the Smith Commission last autumn, Deputy First Minister John Swinney did not push for anything close to full fiscal autonomy.
Yes, he wanted more than Smith delivered, but he was as relieved as anyone that he was not about to become responsible for delivering the state pension, for example, to Scotland’s pensioners. (FFA would mean an end to the UK pension: the pension in Scotland would have to be paid for from taxes raised only in Scotland.)”
One of the bigger bettertogther lies. If you paid UK tax and national insurance, you get the UK pension, no matter where you are and in what country. UK.gov stated that formally last year, yet we have this ridiculous character belching out ever more lies at Scotland.
Wish we voted YES just to get away from these creeps.
Robert Peffers at 10.13
Exactly. Well said. We have to stop wasting our time arguing about the selective figures the unionists put in front of us.
If we establish in the minds of our people that we are self supporting we win independence
@Macart says: 13 June, 2015 at 8:01 pm:
“It is a simple and inescapable fact, that successive Westminster governments and their mismanagement ARE the source of all our economic woes.”
There is one simple statistic that sets the record straight and it overwrites all other statistics put together as an explanation of the entire UK economy.
That during this whole sorry mess the richest people in the United Kingdom, (both under Labour and under Tory rule), have increased their wealth by over 2.2 times while the poor have been getting poorer, food banks have continued to grow in numbers and increasing percentages of old and disabled people are dying, (many so desperate that it was by their own hand).
What that says to me is that, while the recent financial crisis was caused by the greed of the financial sector, the rich have not only continued to prosper but are doing so at an accelerated rate and thus this rich United Kingdom has just been imposing ever greater austerity upon the poor in order to transfer the cash from the poor to the rich. You will note that all the main party leaders are not only rich people but are all from the very same class of education, wealth and social standing.
This is not a poor United Kingdom – it is a severely socially imbalanced united Kingdom.
@Phil Robertson and Colin Rippey
PISH!!
Rev – PLEASE humiliate the Record again by forcing them do a retraction
AAArrggth G’won G’won G’won
And still they insist that we stay British.
Could it be that they play the long game?
link to oilandgaspeople.com
Thanks for the article Stu.
More bloody lies and Scots STILL think we are better together. We need to go pronto.
Can i just say thank you to the commenters for their outstanding contributions. just as many facts in your comments as the article in question. I read every one and no doubt am not alone in this And the usual humour too, for our trolls.
We spike the lies the moment they come out.
Used to get angry at this shit but now …. “pish”
Go Wings
@Capella says: 13 June, 2015 at 8:02 pm
“I think Colin is having a dispute with Mr Peffers about Scotland’s “share” of the oil revenue (which we don’t get).”
Correct, Capella, but it is worse than that for all of Scotland’s funding is by way of the Block Grant and that is set by what is now the de facto Parliament of England and they are not only claiming that Scotland gets more than her fair per capita share of funds, (ignoring the fact that as Scotland has no tax raising powers they must devolve the funds to finance the devolved functions). So their claim the Scots get extra is a red Herring.
“What I don’t understand is, if we have to pay £30 per kilowatt to add electricity to the grid, why don’t we stop doing it? Doesn’t sound like a good business model.”
It is not a good business model, Capella, but the fact is the National Grid’s, “Nation”, is the whole United Kingdom and thus it is just a rip of to subsidise the south. In fact a grid is rather like the ring Main power system in your home. It is a ring with sockets as outlets and as it is a ring of cable the power is at the same level at every socket on the ring and the power could be added at any point on the ring too.
Electricity in a cable is not like water in a pipe. The water you put in at one end runs along the pipe and exits at the end but electricity is held at a set potentials across the whole grid and the consumer draws power out while the generators just maintain the potential.
So there’s the reason we cannot stop the rip off by just not doing it – we don’t get the chance as it is a UK controlled grid. Having said that the Fife Power Station at Longannet is to shut down as they claim the extra charges, (not even so great as those in the far north), make the station uneconomic to run. Even then you must remember the south English stations are subsidised so the total difference is £35 per Kilowatt hour between the far north and the far south.
Believe me this is far from being the only UK rip off in the good old United Kingdom.
@Robert Peffers
“This is not a poor United Kingdom – it is a severely socially imbalanced united Kingdom.”
Absolutely Robert, couldn’t agree more.
Another facet of the great deception. All the wealth of these islands squandered, wasted, poorly stewarded and all the while they expend enormous effort and resource attempting to convince the public of the hopelessness of aspiration. They avoid and shift responsibility, project their failure onto others.
I’d say people had more than enough of their experts, figures and projections Robert.
FFA the only Way !!!
If OsBouRne invented OBR, it may be based on his own name.
Strip out the OBR and the remaining letters are s, o, u, n, e.
What could they stand for? Maybe they are OBR’s motto.
Its (hidden) statement of intent, perhaps.
Something like:
Scotland’s oil undeniably now English,
or:
Scottish oil ultimately never-endingly English!
or:
If OBR stands for Operate British Rule:
Operate British Rule: steal oil under new economics;
(a bit weak, that one)
or:
OBR: steal, obfuscate, usurp, negate, entrap …
or:
the ‘u’ could be for ‘underestimate’
and the ‘s’ could be for ‘statistics’
or:
Scottish oil’s unsustainability never ending ….
and so on:
everyone can make up their own.
Thank you, GIDEON, for your Gigantically Irresposnsible Demonstrably Equivocal Oil Nonsense …
Or is it GEORGE, ‘the Last Chancellor of Britain’, whose ‘Great English Oil Robbery Grab Ends …’; ends what? The Union. Ends how? In disaster, for that Union, as everyone sees through it, and the whole thing comes finally, and for ever, apart.
These lies upon lies are ultimately a self-defeating thing.
In the end, the history-making headline will tell a simple truth: ‘Great English Oil Robbery Gubs England’.
That final robbery will bring Englsnd’s centuries-old imperial history, begun first of all within the British Isles in the 13th Century, to its eventual and definitive cnclusion.
Imperialism is theft, and theft is addictive: one robbery leads to another. But in the end the whole chain of deceit unravels, and the thief – sorry, the imperialist – is left back where he started. Stripped of his pretensions, humiliated, but not unredeemable.
In fact, that is the point at which redemption begins. And a return to normality. The possibilty opens up to join the human race, instead of dominating and exploiting it.
Scottish independence is the condition for the final unravelling of England’s imperial past. That is, the condition for England’s liberation from its own cventuries-old illusions.
Scotland, which should have been the anti-imperial nation par excellence, will also have to face up to its own inglorious history. That is, to its own collusion: to the part it willingly played in aiding and abetting England’s imperial illusions. Scotland too will have to liberate herself from whatever still clings to her from those days. In order to take up once again that anti-imperial position which was. or should have been her historic destiny.
Scotland’s vocation was to p*ss on England’s border, contain her, be unlike her – even only slightly. But sufficiently not to be absorbed into her; not to be taken over by her, or instrumentalised by her imperial plans.
However, we too wanted to be imperialists; we wanted to be like England. And we paid for it with the Union. So, for sure, we failed.
Yet not completely.
We were never fully absorbed. We did not quite disappear. Even within the Union, we made a difference.
Sure, we were as imperialistic as the English were, and no less ‘British’, and no doubt many of us were often comparatively worse. We don’t need to pat ourselves on the back all the time. But some vestige of that anti-imperial destiny did remain somewhere within Scotland. Dormant, perhaps merely an ember, but never entirely snuffed out.
That ember is what is currently coming alive again. New life has been blown into it. The ember has become a fire, and the fire cannot be put out; it can only grow and grow, spread and spread.
It’s almost like a corpse, which everyone thought had breathed its last, coming back to life. A valley of old bones resurrecting and regaining long lost vigour.
But the new life that is being re-found means death to what had prevented Scotland from living its full life these last 300 years and more. The death rattle we are hearing is that of the old imperialism, which we were part of, and with which we colluded.
The British state does not even know it’s dying, but it is. And as it tries to fend off the inevitable, to kid itself on that death is not happening, it gets more and more desperate. Its lies become more and more evident. In death, we have nowhere to hide. We can deceive ourselves, but not others. The mask slips.
Britain is in its last throes. What was said above, half-jokingly, about OBR and s.o.u.n.e., insofar as there is any truth in it, is just a symptom of that fact. Other posts confirm it, for instance those about the body language prevalent in the House of Commons in regard to all things Scottish.
The Dragon can no longer hide its real intent; it does not even try to do so. It has turned on its own. By doing so, it is already killing itself, though it is unaware of the fact.
This is the end-game for the Imperial Dragon, because the Dragon itself is underming its own game. And ending it, definitively. It has turned on its own, and its own have turned against it. They will be deceived (and will deceive themselves) no longer; the truth is too plain to see, and can no longer be avoided; the scales have dropped, and no longer blind their eyes.
The game is well and truly up. The Imperial Lie cannot lie like that, so blatantly, and get away with it for ever. It simply cannot work. The imperial British state is on its last, tottering legs. Independence looms larger and larger on all Scottish doorsteps. It is just a matter of how long – or how short – a time it will take. Or under which particular circumstances it will happens. Circumstances that will turn out to be quite trivial in themselves. Camels’ backs are broken by straws, not hundredweights. Scotland is almost free already.
And despite all the desperate, last-gasp kicking and screaming resistance to it, whether south of the border or north, Scotland’s freedom will be England’s liberation. From the burden of the past. Why resist a win-win situation, for everyone concerned?
Hi Robert, re the grid charges. I would venture that the charge is more likely to be £30 per MWhr rather than KWhr.
@David McCann says: 13 June, 2015 at 11:07 pm:
“And still they insist that we stay British.
Could it be that they play the long game?
link to oilandgaspeople.com
Arrrgh! Don’t you get it even yet? History records there has been an elite ruling class in south Britain since the Romans first recorded history. When they left the South Britons invited in the first batch of the Germanic tribes and it was the first one of those, the Angles, that gave their name to south Britain, “Angleland”. These were followed by others from the same European area, Vikings, Norsemen and Normans , (a contraction of Norsemen) who had settled in France.
It was them who gave us the feudal system and some of their families are still sitting in the house of Lords today and the Royals are their leaders.
And you ask are they playing the long game?
Fukc ’em.
Having worked with a guy in the early 90’s who did mud logging on drill ships, I often recall his talk of 300+ capped wells west of the Hebrides.
Wonder when the (oil) price will be right, and such wells come on stream, whether Scotland will still be ‘cursed’ with such wealth.
@Alan Mackintosh says: 14 June, 2015 at 12:03 am
“Hi Robert, re the grid charges. I would venture that the charge is more likely to be £30 per MWhr rather than KWhr.”
Err! No Allan, the charge is upon each Kilowatt added to the Grid not Kilowat/hr, (a.k.a A Unit of Electric power).
The connection charges are set according to how far the generator is from London and in London and the south they actually pay them per kilowatt added to the grid. Here is link that gives a list of the charges.
link to scottishenergynews.com
@Alan Mackintosh, @Robert Peffers
I think it must be £35 more per kW of capacity on the grid, per annum.
The wholesale price of a MWh isn’t much more than £40 at the moment, which would make generation in the North utterly uneconomic if there was a £35 charge as well. So it can’t be that. (A kWh costs about 4p wholesale).
Robert, please clarify what unit the charge is based on. Or can you point us to your sources? This could be a really useful issue to bring up in discussions with indy switherers… but we need the details. Cheers.
@Robert P
Ah, you beat me to it … the WoS timewarp strikes again! Thanks
Robert, ah ok I see, its an annual charge per installed capacity rather than actual power generated. I asked because earlier in a thread, not sure if this one, the units had included KWh and thought it must have been a error in units, hence my query over whether it was referring to MW.
What a joke the OBR and the UK media are!
Can anyone show what it costs to finance these cowboys.
I’m sure the Westminster parties could just buy a pint for a Darts player in their Subsidised Bar and prdict whatever number his first dart lands on. Well maybe best out of 3 if it lands on a big number.
I never noticed any correction on their previous debacle when
they suggested that the Scottish Black Hole was £7.6 Billion, but then admitted that they “Forgot” to include VAT raised in Scotland and any factors for economic growth.
If I made a mistake on a client’s account, I give an explanation as to how the mistake was made, what measures I will take to ensure that it doesn’t happen again, deliver the corrected figures ASAPO, and make an apology!
How far down this fair and reasonable road is cowboy Joe at OBR?
R Peffers
“Now as around 95% of the oil & gas revenues are extracted from what is recognised, by the International Law Of The Seas, as Scottish legal jurisdiction, any reasonable person would expect that the allocations credited as Scottish earned revenues would be based upon geographic location”
Not correct, I think. About two-thirds of oil related revenue comes from corporation tax and, as you should know, that is paid where companies choose to declare their profits.
R Peffers
“increasing percentages of old and disabled people are dying”
If in doubt, do you make up your own figures? In the last fifty years (1963-2013), mortality rates in the 75-85 age bracket have halved.
I remember recenlty reading something, which I unfortunately can’t find now, about how London and the SE gets their north sea gas supplies subsidised on the basis that they’re far away from the population – and that then some of that same gas gets sent to power stations that are in turn subsidised on the basis that they’re close to the population. That’s having your cake and eating it.
“you could simply buy a dartboard and a blindfold” otherwise known as ‘The Golden Shot’ with Bob Monkhouse.