Information request #4
We’ve already asked this question on Twitter (no answers yet), but we should open it up here too. In the light of today’s piece by Stewart Bremner, we’ve been racking our brains trying to think if anyone has moved, in public, from being a Yes vote to a No – or even a Don’t Know – since, let’s say, the SNP’s victory in 2007, the point at which a referendum started to become a real possibility rather than just an abstract concept.
That’s almost six years ago now. Surely SOMEONE must have been won over by the Unionists’ arguments or by the slick, positive, coherent “Better Together” campaign? There’s no shortage of testimonies from people moving, or at least edging, the other way. Even the Sunday Mail is starting to waver a little, for Heaven’s sake.
But we haven’t heard of a single, solitary human in all those six years of intensified constitutional debate who’d previously supported independence having announced to the world that it’s a bad idea and we’re better off in the bosom of Mother UK after all.
Surely there’s one SOMEWHERE, out of Scotland’s five million citizens? All the polls tell us the Union is still the “normal” choice, so there shouldn’t be any “Shy Tory Syndrome” at play. And those same polls sometimes see support for independence fall, so there have to be people lurking in gloomy corners of the nation who are turning back to the Dark Side after glimpsing the sunlit uplands of self-determination.
Why, then, haven’t we heard from any of them? Why hasn’t the No camp got any born-again Unionists front and centre, evangelising how they accepted Westminster back into their hearts? Surely it can’t just be shame, can it?
I’ve gone from supporting independence to supporting the Union, as a result of my experience with the NHS.
I had a pre-frontal lobotomy and it was so successful I’m now a Unionist
It’s a one-way street, Rev. That’s why we will win, sooner or later.
I’ve also had an autonomy lobotomy and now I’m an onionist
Jeff ‘Better Nation’ Breslin? I can’t tell for sure but he seems to be in favour of Devo Max now. Or maybe he’s just pessimistic about winning the referendum? Not sure if he was ever 100% pro-Independence or not.
I have, like others, gone from a position of wanting the maximum amount of autonomy consistent with being in a political union, to being in favour of independence. By maximum autonomy I’m thinking along the lines of something like Secure Autonomy or being within a con-federal union. Even then, at the back of my mind, it would just be part of a gradual move towards normal statehood.
I suspect that I could still be persuaded to support such an option should the Unionists put an honest – and watertight – proposal forward. Back on planet Earth, I realise that there is not a chance of such an arrangement being put in place by the Westminster parties. Honesty is such an alien concept in that place, and I genuinely believe that the Westminster system is capable of being reformed in a way that would give Scotland the governance it so badly needs.
So, I don’t see any other feasible option other than voting Yes!
“Jeff ‘Better Nation’ Breslin? I can’t tell for sure but he seems to be in favour of Devo Max now. Or maybe he’s just pessimistic about winning the referendum? Not sure if he was ever 100% pro-Independence or not.”
That’s a real stretch.
I’m sure there was someone (a historian? a documentary dude?) who did one of the “It’s Time” adverts who has since switched. This was some time ago, though; certainly during the SNP’s first term. Perhaps around the time of the Glasgow East by-election?
Ive seen plenty posts along the lines of “Im Scottish and I used to support Indy but yon liar Jowly Eck turned me totally against it because of his stupid face”
im sure we have all seen them ones to be fair…….its akin to the old argument of ” Lots of my friends are Muslim but…….”
Scotland’s leading Popeye impersonator.
“This was not a snap decision. I am quite well-travelled and have seen a bit of the world and I just think that independence is not the right option for Scotland right now.
“The current global economic crisis has brought that into sharp focus.
“Scotland is better in a bigger union in terms of trading and the economy.”
link to news.bbc.co.uk
Nah, Jeff Breslin went from being an SNP member who was sceptical of independence into fully backing independence. I think he just likes to play devil’s advocate a wee bit sometimes, to get a bit of activity going in the comments – which is fair play.
There are a few bloggers I can think of who do similar, but I have no doubts that they’ll vote Yes in 2014.
I seem to recall one chap on CiF who was so piqued at the NATO vote he decided to chuck a YES vote in favour of a no, all the whilst proclaiming his independence creds. Forget his handle, but the whole premise of his argument seemed fairly shallow.
There’s a simple reason why no one ever goes from wanting independence to becoming a unionist. Unionism is not an intellectual position. Anyone who looks at the arguments of both sides with an open mind and arrives at a position through a logical process will favour independence. This is why we’ve yet to hear the Positive Case For The Union™, because deep down even the most concerted unionist knows it is impossible to argue for the union from a logical stance.
We have 18 months to get everyone in Scotland to at least THINK about independence, and thinking is the enemy of Unionism. This is why we’ll win.
In fact, Macart’s comment highlights this perfectly, because voting NO because of the NATO vote is a classic example of cutting your nose of to spite your face. The guy was clearly a moron!
I believe the Taggart actor John Michie has swithered about between independence & back again. I have a vague memory it was because he took the huff about something with the SNP.
I dunno Rev, I’ve found some of Niko’s stuff quite persuasive…
😉
@ Doug Daniel
I’m from the Margo school of diplomacy personally. There are no ‘deal breakers’ when it comes to independence from Westminster.
Might be something to do with this…
Support for direct Westminster Rule in Scotland:
1979 = 48% (Referendum Result)
1997 = 26% (Referendum Result)
2012 = ~6% (SSAS/Polls)
Canny help but feel there’s a bit of a trend there.
Bewitched by Mags.
John Michie, 2007: “This union has become a barrier for Scotland participating in a younger union – the European Union.”
“An independent Scotland would find a new confidence.”
John Michie, 2008: “I agree with Margaret Curran that independence isn’t the best way forward for Scotland.
“Personally I think we should be together, within the European Union.”
link to news.bbc.co.uk
Sorry about the duplicate, pls delete one if possible.
‘An actor who campaigned for Labour in the Glasgow East by-election previously backed independence, it has emerged.
Taggart star John Michie told the BBC’s This Week show last year that Scots would find “a new confidence” with independence.
He has since issued a statement through Labour to say that “independence isn’t the best way forward”.’
link to tinyurl.com
Yes, I was knocked off balance by Jeff’s last blog post, which was a confusing call to the SNP to redefine independence as meaning to remain a region of the UK or something.
@G. Campbell
Some crackers in that BBC piece, plus ça change :
‘Mr Michie said an independent Scotland would never have participated in the war in Iraq and described independence as a “constructive process” which would also benefit England.
“An independent Scotland would find a new confidence,” he said.
“It would slow down the brain-drain that causes this country to lose so many of its brightest and most skilled.
“And Edinburgh, that great European capital that has already witnessed one Enlightenment, could once again be the cradle for new insights in modernity and progress.”‘
‘Labour MP David Cairns said Mr Mason had made it clear that “when it comes to an independence referendum, no does not mean no”.
“Now a very senior SNP MP has been forced to contradict their by-election candidate, telling the BBC that there will be no referendum for a generation if Scotland votes no,” he said.
“Either Mr Mason let the cat out of the bag on the SNP’s true plans or his hardline message is so extreme that even the SNP hierarchy have disowned him. Either way, the SNP is in utter disarray.”‘
Jack McConnell himself used to be a student nationalist but claimed to have seen the light. Perhaps like Cllr McNamee in the BBC link above he wanted to be ‘part of something bigger than himself’, something he finally managed when he joined the UK peerage.
I have never came across anybody switching away from ‘YES’
Probably a massive stretch but….
Andy Murray? Didn’t he used to get a lot of stick from the English public after saying that he was Scottish, not British? Although I don’t know if he ever actually said he was pro-independence, he certainly did say enough to offend plenty of English people – not that that’s hard, when you’re a “sweaty sock”.
Nowadays I don’t think he says anything about it publicly. And of course he moved his lips a bit, along to God Save the Queen at the Olympics – probably a wise move, to save himself a lot of hassle.
PS. I love Andy Murray and am definitely not having a go at him.
Andy Murray knows which side his bread is buttered on. You’d have to get him on pentothal now to find out what he thinks, and even that might not work.
We all know about Brian Wilson, but that was several decades ago.
Has anyone checked the Bitter Together website for converts ? I dare not go over there for fear of my computer catching something nasty..
When Ian Murray, now an Edinburgh MP (Labour) was at school, he stood in the 1992 mock election as the S N P candidate, and won.
I think ‘Labour hame’ has confirmed their tory status in the no camp, Yes they are back with an article by a fellow tory. BUT DONT WORRY, the content remains the same, “minging”.
Is their no actual labour people prepare to write for there own site ??????????
@ G Campbell – jings! What a very long story about a councillor defecting!
I wonder how many other defections at level have merited that coverage…
I can confirm ‘labour hame’ still does not appreciate my sense of humour and has blocked a couple of my postings, same old same old.
But I do think their latest article may turn a few ‘no’ supporters towards ‘yes’, either that or bore them to death.
I firmly believe the YES vote is solid; let’s say that it’s 30% to 40%. I also believe there are the people who readily admit that they do not know how they’ll vote and these are the people that can be won over quite easily. There’s a 3rd group who are NOs but not definite Nos: they still believe that we’re too small etc. That’s because they have no interest and are not engaged in any way in the argument i.e. no interest in politics, don’t read about politics in the papers and don’t watch on the TV: This group can be won over too once they HAVE to engage i.e. when there’s wall to wall coverage or when we talk to them and explain the whys and hows. The last group are the definite Nos and we can forget about them.
What do you mean “no answers” on Twitter? I answered you!
I pointed out that Brian Wilson and Jack McConnell had both been SNP members in their younger days.
The “I used to be a fervent nationalist committed to an Independent Scotland right up to the moment Alex Salmond looked at my curry in a funny way” posts are a kind of troll, just there to soak up your time
Or so I thought
Then Lewis MacDonald said something I disagreed with and, as the BBC is always telling us, he’s in the SNP, do I’d rather shackle myself to a corrupt, wasteful, spiteful Union than see him get his wishes! (*)
(*) tongue may be in cheek here
There was a young lassie (age 17) on Radio Scotland this morning who said that she had intended to vote Yes but was thinking of voting No because of all the bad things she heard that were going to happen to Scotland if we became independent.
Unionist lies and propaganda are having an effect and it’s not something that the Yes campaign can afford to ignore.
We have a chance to become the sixth richest country in the world and that young lassie hasn’t got a clue about that. The Yes campaign will have to get the gloves off.
Can I ask a slightly different question?
Has there ever been a country that has achieved its independence but decided to give it up to rejoin the ‘mother’ country?
Why do all these separatists such as America, New Zealand, Australia, Cyprus, India, Jordan, Kenya, Ireland, Malaysia, etc, not see the errors of their ways and declare that we are all Bitter Together and be directly ruled from Westminster?
I think Michael Kelly should be asked to explain, especially about Ireland!
I moved from no to yes in 2011. If anything the bettertogether campaign just makes me dig my heels in. The idea of this lot winning gives me the fear.
Jim Sillars? – only kiddin – I think.
I have a major concern about wreckers among us already. There are already norons masquerading as independence supporters and I do not doubt that some of them are sitting as elected SNP councillors. In the desire to maximise SNP council success I suspect some rules were bent to allow some people to stand as SNP councillors when they had not shown long enough commitment to the party.
On the other hand there are probably enough thoughtful and intelligent people in the other parties prepared to move to us to balance this out but we will have to make their journey easy for them.
We do need to start to produce an accesible narrative for our young people but as I’m ancient I’m not quite sure how this can be done
I think you will find a few of these demented creatures in the Liberal party (aka Flipper party).
Their new party motto being “Here are my principles and if you don’t like them I have others”.
In August 2012, I encountered an SNP member of 16 years who was so infuriated about the proposed gay marriage legislation that he would not sign the Declaration.
Information Request.
Macro-political question: Do you consider Scotland to be a country and a nation?
If yes, then explain the merit of having just over 50 Scottish MPs in an UK parliament of +650. predominately English MPs.
If no, you may go to the final question.
Macro-economic question: Describe the benefit of submitting substantially more tax revenue to the UK treasury than is returned by said treasury in expenditure in Scotland. And explain why the income from oil and gas , extracted from Scottish territorial waters, is not credited to Scotland.
Social policy: Describe the benefit of the bedroom tax to Scotland. A policy resisted by a majority of Scottish MPs yet it will be UK policy applied to Scotland. Explain why child poverty is statistically higher in Scotland – you may wish to refer to macro-economic policy above. .
Defence policy: Explain the UK defence strategy in the Iraq war and Afghanistan. Explain the merits of Trident.
UK power generation strategy: Is it the intention to have new nuclear power stations built in England under foreign ownership? Is it the strategy to have renewable energy imported from Scotland and Ireland in preference to developing renewable energy installations in England?
Having considered and answered the above, will you vote Yes or No in the 2014 referendum?
As an SNP member myself – please forget traditional thinking re party membership.
There are many in the SNP still going through Pavlovian electioneering procedures, which are completely irrelevant now.
This is NOT an election.
It is a REFERENDUM. There is only one game in town and that is it.
I know the training kicks in automatically, but the methods used for an election campaign or for recruitment are null and void, have no relevance – worse are a counterproductive waste of resource.
Think about it.
For example. “Identify your support. Make sure you get your support out.” A huge amount of effort is normally expended on this for an election.
Normally quite a reasonable ploy. But that tactic is predicated entirely on the premise that people are probably fed up with elections, are certainly fed up with politicians and therefore generally have low motivation to get off their doup and vote. Right?
But for this once in a lifetime referendum there will not be a lack of motivation to vote at all. Really, there won’t. So that resource and manpower, or at least the greater part of it, would be far better utilised by “Identifying those that don’t support independence. Target them with canvassing, give them the facts to get as many converted as possible.”
Also consider:
What will happen to the SNP if Scotland votes NO? OK they would hang together until 2016 – then what?
What will happen to the Unionists if Scotland votes YES?
What will happen to party memberships, depending on result?
It is in effect a war for survival.
The methods used must be completely different.
@velofello-
I would love to see your questions put to MSM journalists and broadcasters. If they answer them honestly (especially the final one) they must realise what an impossible position they’re now in.
Hypothetical – what if enough of the big hitters right across MSM got their heads together, agreed a basic statement of principles, and did the equivalent of a UDI?
If they struck out on their own, with enough of their colleagues and the support of the Unions and ‘striking’ (i.e. non-licence paying) public they could establish a de facto National Broadcaster in a matter of months.
@mutterings,
That manages to be both hilarious and depressing at the same time. Perhaps with Westminster recently voting on gay marriage he decided to gave up finding ways of making gays unhappy and focus all his energy on making Scotland miserable instead. Then again it might just be a massive tantrum.
I posted these comment in reply to a piece by Allan Massie, in the Spectator. You can but hope. I am in full agreement with Chic McGregor and hope the SG are adopting the correct strategy. I know that I am hoping for a lot, but hope is the one thing I do have in abundance.
“This may be the biggest political decision that will ever be made in the UK, and we are all being badly let down by the MSM. Personally, the only impact I see their coverage is having, is a wave of energy sapping nausea and depression after exposure. It is toxic waste, but perhaps….
If the British empire was happy to extinguish entire cultural identities in the support of free-trade, who are we to expect balanced debate now? Britain is still quite a young attempt at a democracy, with universal suffrage only since 1948. What can we expect from the institutional legacy of the colonial system? Not much so far, judging by what I see, read and hear.
I want a future in an open and democratic society, so will be voting Yes in 2014. Least of all, this will provide me with a written constitution and replace my dependance on Westminster or EU largess to protect my civil liberties.”
“Point taken. Frustration tends to hinder my syntax, grammar and attention to nit-picking detail. Doesn’t take away from my general point though.
The referendum wont just affect us Jocks, it will affect everyone living in the UK. Do you really want the shape of your democracy to be dictated by the conduct and performance of the BBC? So far they have shown an alarming willingness to undermine the democratic process. Is this fact so hard for you to accept and why?”
@velofello
Looking at your comment, Iit occurred to me that this format would make a really good Yes leaflet for Uni students – set out as an exam paper. Think you’ve hit on something there.
Imagine this – you’ve a decent job in MSM in Scotland. Maybe you’re a presenter, a researcher, a producer, whatever. When you get your ‘week-end’, have a good session with trusted colleagues, late-on, what do you talk about?
I mentioned this many threads ago, but I’ll repeat it:
I was in a Glasgow pub with a prominent Scottish news journalist when another journalist (not someone he’d worked with but knew by name) joined the company. This was almost exactly two years ago. It was my turn to get the drinks in – when I came back, they were discussing the state of the ‘dead-tree’ Press.
‘We’re in a dying industry,’ said the new arrival.
‘I’ve, well, there’s a couple of things on the go,’ came the guarded reply.
My return stopped the exchange and the topic shifted to football-related fluff.
The point is – a lot of these people are professionals who worked hard and long to get a foothold in a cut-throat business, and got there on merit, even if they had to make all manner of compromises along the way. Yes, some of the folk they have to work with (and we are familiar with via the MSM outlets) are little more than amiable airheads who wouldn’t know how to start answering the questions velofello presented above, but the hardened pros have been anticipating this crisis for a long time – the prospect of a referendum has only served to accelerate the dilemmas they were already wrestling with.
It is as naive as it is offensive to suggest that all these people are willing accomplices when it comes to broadcasting propaganda/spin/outright lies. If the behaviour of the MSM doesn’t change radically – and soon – those for whom journalism was a genuine vocation will start jumping ship. What choice have they? Remain within Pacific Quay as it continues to bombard us with putrid misrepresentations of our elected government even as we approach the most important poll we’ve ever had?
No way – those in the broadsheets know their days are numbered; those inside the BBC know that the organisation will, in effect, be finished by a Yes vote. Whatever new MSM emerge in an independent Scotland will only be able to use the skills of so many, and the available jobs will deservedly go to those who helped bring an end to the great deceit we’ve all endured for so long.
The first to break cover know they’ll be celebrated – songs will be written about them. And that’s an important consideration when you think about some of the egos involved – even if they don’t openly declare such lofty flights of fancy when they have their late-night sessions, we can be pretty sure they enjoy thinking about it. For some of them, right now, the temptation must be immense.
Just repeating a comment I put on a previous thread. If you haven’t checked out Stewart Bremner’s graphics on his site, I’d recommend you do it now. Although all his graphics are good, there’s one with instant “grab your attention” appeal – the Hope/Nope one. Can I share this on facebook?
I’ve long bemoaned the lack of good graphics/posters. We need far more of these. A picture says a thousand words. Evolution has given our brains a device for quick and economic understanding – it’s called imagery and metaphor – and it works very well at an unconscious level. Most people will not take the time to read screeds of information, but can take in the message of a good graphic/poster within seconds. Stewart’s Hope/Nope message is instantly understandable. It would be ideal on a large poster as well as for circulation on facebook.
Castle Rock – countries that have sought unification rather than independence – I can think of two off the top of my head, Texas and East Germany. Totally different circumstances to most countries though.
Now I think about it, Newfoundland only joined Canada in 1949, was probably ruled directly as part of the British Empire before that though.
@ Campbell, G,
That article you posted was news to me, but it made me laugh.
“An SNP councillor in South Lanarkshire has quit the party and defected to Labour….
He had been under investigation by the local SNP group over his expenses and allegations of inappropriate behaviour.”
Looks like he’ll fit right in with his new colleagues!
There’s a very simple reason why people such as Jack McConnell, Brian Wilson and Ian Murray apparently had epiphany moments that saw them supposedly go from being young indy supporters to Labour unionists.
Up until recently, aspiring career politicians in Scotland have had to stand for Labour. Getting nominated for a Scottish seat as a Labour candidate was effectively a golden ticket to a cushy little number in Westminster. It’s also why Tom Harris and Ian Davidson are Labour MPs, despite being bigger Tories than even some in the Tory party itself.
Alas, these same morally vacant types will soon start finding their way into the SNP, if indeed they haven’t already (and there are at least a handful of SNP councillors who I have suspicions about, not least defectors from Labour.) Fortunately, we’ll be independent long before they get the chance to turn the SNP into a morality-free zone like Labour, and proportional representation makes it less necessary for careerists to choose a party purely based on who is the most popular.
Anyway, as such, you can’t really count politicians in this sort of argument. Unless we’re talking about post-retirement conversions.
Exactly, Doug
There are advantages however, To mix metaphors when we see the chancers climbing onto the bandwagon we will know which way the wind is blowing and they will accurately indicate a popular movement of opinion and are very persuasive of public opinion.
Let me not traduce all who are coming to us however as we have the brave like Canavan and McAllion with us already and many more substantial and significant figures awaiting the right time to step forward.
We will of course already have among us those sent in to destroy us. This will be effected by prompting infighting and disruption but we have a much stronger hand.
@ ianbrotherhood
Don’t know if you have come across a rather wonderful euphemism coined by Murray Ritchie, one time political editor of the Herald. He said that there was a long history in Scottish journalism where those who started to treat the idea of independence favourably, suddenly found life becoming “unusually complicated”.
The only thing which has changed since then is the substitution of ‘fairly’ for ‘favourably’.
@chicmac –
Yeah, have seen it before, and quite recently – perhaps it was yourself mentioned it in an earlier thread.
If it’s true, then one has to wonder what ‘unusual complications’ Iain Macwhirter may be facing right now – will someone take him aside and have a word in his shell-like? Perhaps that’ll just tip him over the edge.
I suppose it’s all just wishful thinking on my part, but I wish to god one of the big beasts would make a bolt for it – they’d get plenty of support.
Ian
I would be amazed if Iain was not already fully aware of the unwritten rules and felt their effect.
@chicmac –
Agreed, but didn’t you feel his piece last week had a really angry undercurrent? It was as if he was a richt bad mood when he wrote it, and he normally appears pretty unflappable. Then again, if he did up and off, they’d likely just pretend he never existed – ‘Iain who?’
When anyone objects to indy on the grounds that “the SNP would. . .” I find it a good tactic to point out that a new Scotland will be whatever the people of Scotland want it to be. The SNP will be one party among many in an independent Scotland, and, although its hard to see where charismatic, competent politicians will suddenly appear from in the Labour or LibDems, it could happen!
Talking about what Scotland could be under indy, compared to what the UK will be under the current system is a good way to get people thinking about what country they want to live in!