How to make lemonade
The Scottish media have been proclaiming, and simultaneously praying for, an “SNP civil war” for longer than we can remember. (Usually alternated with furious stories about how the party is a “cult” which doesn’t allow internal dissent.)
But there can be little credible dispute that it’s finally got one. The party has been deeply divided by allegations made, in questionable circumstances, against its former leader Alex Salmond, and if this site is to be as honest as with its readers as it always is, we must note that the current leadership has made a monumental pig’s breakfast of dealing with the situation.
The manner in which it’s done so is entirely in line with previous instances, where MPs and MSPs have been thrown immediately under the bus at the slightest sniff of any possible misdeed, even when there has proved to be none. Michelle Thomson was cut adrift over hysterical media claims which turned out to be completely baseless, and Mark McDonald was brutally ostracized for nothing more than making a joke about his mobile phone autocorrecting a single word in a text message.
The allegations against Salmond, in so far as details have been released, also appear to be of a fairly trivial nature out of all proportion to their consequences. Last week’s Sunday Post revealed that one of them had in fact been investigated years ago and been resolved to the apparent satisfaction of all parties involved by a simple apology over a “misunderstanding”.
The paper noted, with dry understatement, that “it remains unclear why senior civil servants launched a second investigation in January”.
But our purpose here is not to rehash a story that’s been luridly splashed all over the Scottish press for six months already, and will doubtless continue to be gleefully exploited for many more to come by hacks who’ve been searching fruitlessly for dirt on Salmond for over 20 years and now finally scent blood.
Nor is there a great deal of point in examining the motivations and actions which culminated in the First Minister inexplicably giving her strong public backing to Leslie Evans, the Permanent Secretary whose shambolically incompetent handling of the investigation did a ruinous disservice to everyone involved – the two complainants, Salmond, the Scottish Government, the Civil Service, the SNP and Scottish taxpayers, who’ll be landed with a bill in excess of £500,000 after the case collapsed in the Court Of Session earlier this month.
(It was difficult not to contrast the unqualified support of Evans, who DID do something badly wrong, with the treatment given to the entirely-innocent Michelle Thomson.)
Even the Times, no friend of Alex Salmond, demanded her sacking.
But that damage has been done and can’t be undone. The question is whether the independence movement can salvage anything of value from this appalling, wholly-unnecessary and almost entirely self-inflicted car crash. And the surprising answer is that not only could it salvage something, it could trigger a massive leap forward.
Developments yesterday suggest that the rift in the party is unlikely to be healed in the forseeable future. It’s plain both that Salmond feels betrayed and that he has reasonable grounds for believing so. It also seems clear that he has no plans to shuffle off into quiet retirement just yet, with British and Scottish politics in turmoil.
So let us float an idea past you, readers: what if he formed a party?
In 2016, the SNP received 954,000 list votes, which brought them just four list MSPs under the Holyrood electoral system. Labour and the Tories combined got almost exactly the same number of list votes – 956,000 – but were rewarded with more than 11 times as many seats for them: 45 to be precise.
So imagine that Alex Salmond formed a breakaway pro-independence party that only contested list seats. Such a party requires vastly fewer resources than one that stands in constituencies. (We half-considered it ourselves a few years back, before recoiling from the amount of admin.)
Then imagine – and it takes no great leap – that this party was able to secure the second votes of a large number of SNP supporters, swayed by the fact that their list votes could be deployed to vastly greater effect for what they’d essentially see as “SNP2”, rather than having to take what for a great many is the deeply unattractive option of voting for the Greens or the other micro-parties in order to maximise pro-indy representation at Holyrood.
(To see how unattractive it is, one need only note that despite a sustained outpouring of quite aggressive demands in 2016 that SNP voters back the Greens or RISE or SSP on the list, the SNP list vote actually went up compared to the 2011 landslide. Asking them to give their second vote to a party led by Alex Salmond would be a different proposition entirely.)
The man who brought Scotland to the brink of independence retains a lot of goodwill with the grassroots, and even the most loyal SNP supporters could split their votes with a clear conscience. Since by not fighting constituencies the new party wouldn’t be – in any meaningful sense – standing against the SNP, the chance to deliver far more pro-indy MSPs, who were still pretty traditional Nats, would offer SNP voters a huge temptation with next to nothing in the way of downsides.
(Electoral rules forbid parties from deliberately creating spinoffs in order to exploit such a strategy, but there could be no disputing that this one was the result of a real and bitter schism rather than a cunning electoral ploy. Every newspaper has been stridently insisting the former is the case for months.)
Just for fun, we did the sums for the 2016 election as if all the SNP’s list votes had instead been cast for an imaginary Salmond-led party with no constituency seats (obviously an extreme case to make the point). The results would have been:
SNP (Salmond’s New Party): 28 seats
Labour: 12 seats
Conservative: 15 seats
Lib Dem: 1 seat
The actual results in 2016 were:
SNP (Classic): 4 seats
Labour: 24 seats
Conservative: 21 seats
Green: 6 seats
Lib Dem: 1 seat
That’s a net pro-independence gain of 18 seats from essentially the same votes. Labour’s representation would be cut in half, the Tories reduced by a quarter.
The SNP-and-SNP grouping at Holyrood would have 87 seats out of 129, compared to the current pro-indy total of 69 – or put another way, a majority of 45, rather than the current fragile 9 at the mercy of the Greens.
That’s quite a potential prize to salvage from an SNP “split”.
Salmond easily has the clout and the ability to both raise the relatively modest funding required and assemble a strong roster of candidates. Imagine for example – and we’re purely speculating for illustrative purposes here, making no assertions as to anyone’s possible willingness – that he signed up MPs displaced in 2017 like Angus Robertson, Eilidh Whiteford, Mike Weir, Kirsten Oswald, Michelle Thomson and George Kerevan, whose considerable skills are currently going to waste.
It also doesn’t seem wildly unrealistic to imagine that many more whose faces perhaps don’t fit the current SNP template for candidates, for any of a variety of reasons, might also be interested in joining the new party.
Such an undertaking would of course be contingent on Salmond coming out of the current investigations reasonably unscathed. (Indeed, in that respect it might yet turn out that Leslie Evans and the Scottish media have done him a backhanded favour by prejudicing the case so badly that it’s impossible to prosecute it.) But in such an event, the way would be clear for an unforeseen political earthquake that could practically guarantee a pro-indy majority at Holyrood for a generation.
Seen in that light, the desperation of the media to nail Salmond now is thrown into perspective. But at half a decade younger than Jeremy Corbyn, we suspect the story of the man who could fairly claim to be the most successful and notable Scottish politician of all time might not be over yet.
An interesting proposition.
Paul Hutcheon on now, all but telling us it’s all over for Nicola, the SNP and Independence. Well, that’ll be that then. Thanks for everything Stu. See you everyone. Take care. Bye…. (waves)
See this? Ah like this!
Yesssssssssss ????????
Those question marks started out as smiles aargh?
What a wizard wheeze as our Britnat chums would say.
Wow speechless don’t fund but for this yes def
Would the two parties ever fall out and go head to head ?
If not , it could work
But what if someone else took control as leader and changed direction ?
I’ve always thought all under one banner to be the best way forward
Is this what we need at this time ? Something completely new
I’m not convinced at present
But if Brexit is actually cancelled let’s give it a go
Roll on Scottish independence
Ah, but a “bitter schism” might actually be a “cunning electoral ploy”.
Here’s hoping.
Thats damned interesting.
You will have the suits at Westminster Central on overtime with that sort of talk.
I’d buy into that for sure. We always say it is only the SNP or occasional Green we can vote for in any event.
Where did you get this suggestion Rev. Did someone put forward this proposition? Apart from yourself that is.
Well if there was ever a place to caution Westminster and the Media to be careful what they wish for this is a doozie.
Work to split the SNP and succeed in splitting them into Two Indy parties…
I like it Rev… I really really like it!
Both votes SNP. Old and New.
Please share. We did it for wings and Alex Salmond so if we can all give a little then we can help this family.
link to gofundme.com
“Guarantee a pro-indy majority for a generation”
Brilliant.
Any bets the SNP Civil War nonsense from the Unionist press suddenly goes quiet as their implication gets real?
Vote SNP – Salmond National Party.
What could be simpler?
Very interesting but we need to think about the next general election. labour and conservative will work together and present a pro unionist block. We must counter this
I prefer the option where Scotland is Independent long before the next Holyrood election, but this applied AFTER indy, presuming we keep the current system, would help keep many of the current unionist desperado squad, out of Holyrood.
Good article.
Great idea Stu, one of your best, if not THE best.
Isn’t Mr Salmond just a member of the public?
From what I hear from colleagues generally I think the papers and Smith and toodilooo the noo of the BBC have over egged this one.
The notion that both the FM and Mr Salmond were both in cahoots and in opposition at the same time just indicates the nonsense.
This is to deflect from brexit as it impacts on Scotland and to deflect from the Civil Service- who are supposed to be impartial. The Court of Session ruled otherwise.
Evans must go. FM should say on reflection and based on all the evidence Evans must go.
Are you going to get Cecil B Demille to direct this movie Rev
or get Paul Hutcheon to star as the rat that turns into a wizard, oh wait that’s Harry Potter, come to think of it Jakey Rowling could write it she’s done a lot of childrens stuff
None of this so called schism and war footing talk is coming from anyone in the SNP or Alex Salmond it’s all coming from other people so if nobody minds very much I’ll just treat all this stuff as the wild imaginings and hopes and dreams of those who oppose the SNP until I actually hear from the FM or former FM because no matter what anybody says *The schism* *The war* *The rift* was perfectly timed to coincide with Brexit to take the heat off the Tories and neither the FM or former FM would have engineered that
That is a very refreshing lemonade by the sound of it. I would invest in a few bottles of that if it was available.
Can I suggest a cunning idea for the name of this new Alex Salmond led Party ?
Guaranteed to win 100% of the list votes and seats.
The ‘I hate Nicola Sturgeon Party’.
All current unionists would surlely vote for this party….jobs a good ‘un.
Ya dancer!
Bingo!!!
There are days when you really excel yourself Stu. This is one of them. An absolutely brilliant idea.
Alex probably drops in here from time to time, if not someone will surely ping him on this one.
We discussed the Wings option previously & from memory it had good support here.
I’m sure there will be others like me happy to CRowd Fund to get it going.
Its a wee while before the next Holyrood Election, hopefully time to do the admin involved setting it all up.
My first thought on the NS / AS war …..but they arnae supposed to contact each other ….smiley fing
The Governor General Mundell won’t allow it!!
Civil,war, what civil war?
This issue is an unhelpful distractration that has put the FM in an impossible position.
That the situation has been handled appallingly by the senior civil servant is clear to all except those who wish to muddy the waters, i.e. opposition and press.
People’s focus hold be on independence and brexit!
Alex if you are reading this please do it!!!!!!
And any dick that thinks we are Liebor/Tory or Corbin/May’s parties where it’s party before country….. well that’s NOT how we independents fly…
COUNTRY before politics people..NOT how they are please…. Sort it now……. don’t give them the ammo.
Nichola just wait we are standing by, because, we are ready.
Alex I’ve not had my email From your crowd funded ?
This idea is so radical – it’s brilliant. Well done, Rev, I can only hope AS receives this message and gives it some serious consideration. Watch out then for the panic among the BritNats as they clamour to neuter Holyrood and scream for electoral reform at Holyrood. “Well, you designed the system, Labour – so don’t bother complaining when it gest used against you.
So good if AS goes for it. Sounds too good to be true though – must be a catch. And I do expect the big man has some big ideas of his own in his pocket, waiting for the right time. 🙂
What an interesting idea. I can imagine the “Blow for Sturgeon” headlines would soon wither away as realisation dawned.
It would also snuff out the MSM screams of “SNP civil war”.
Yes – could and would be highlighted as a “split”. But that would quickly be replaced by “They did it deliberately!”, “They are working together for indy!” (well duuuhh), “It’s no fair!” (you designed the system), as the BritNat dimwits eventually realised just how big a threat to their cosy little system this is. 🙂
.
Stuart Campbell, I had my suspicions about you for some years.
They are now confirmed.
You are a genius 🙂
Brilliant piece of lateral thinking sir.
Might I suggest Wingers write directly to Alex Salmond to let him know the good level of support for the new “Scottish Democratic Party”.
P.S. Stu. I loved your SNP (Salmond New Party) – and SNP (classic).
Oh the wonderful thought of NO MORE MURDO FRASER and other freeloading klingon oxygen thieves squatting on the Holyrood list 🙂
Did I not see reports last year that a Scandinavian businessman was going to buy The Scotsman and appoint Alex Salmond as editor? Then, just a couple of weeks later, it was mysteriously all off again? I’ve been wondering if this was the reason why the powers-that-be acted to take Alex out of the game, and also if it was the reason why the deal was suddenly called off. The editorship of what was traditionally regarded as the national newspaper would surely have placed him in a very powerful and influential position.
May will resign tomorrow evening, about 7:45 pm.
Gove will take over as interim PM.
The Red Tories will lose a vote of No Confidence when Sammy and the DUP, who, wait for it, ‘fought a war against terrorism’, aye right, continue with the £1 billion confidence and supply bribe and back the Blue Tories.
Bercow will step in and deny a ‘best of three’ vote on the Withdrawal Bill next Monday, and a Second People’s Vote will be the default position.
That vote will favour Remain, and all hell will break loose in England.
So any imaginative Scottish Independece Party led by Salmond in 2021 is a stretch too far,imho.
A Second People’s vote favouring remain will invalidate the SNP manifesto commitment to hold Indyref 2, the ‘material change’, leaving the EU against the will of the Scottish people, will no longer apply.
I look forward to ‘Fish’ Gove blurting and blustering on Newsnight tomorrow.
[…] Wings Over Scotland How to make lemonade The Scottish media have been proclaiming, and simultaneously praying for, an “SNP […]
@Jack Collatin,
Only if the English people have changed their mind. The most recent polls do not bear that out.
So, as the English prepare to eat themselves alive, Scotland, learning absolutely nothing from 500 years decides to tear itself apart politically.
I wonder if anybody in the island of Great Britain has ever read about the political situation around Charles Stewart Parnell
“and if this site is to be as honest as with its readers as it always is, we must note that the current leadership has made a monumental pig’s breakfast of dealing with the situation”
“Nor is there a great deal of point in examining the motivations and actions which culminated in the First Minister inexplicably giving her strong public backing to Leslie Evans”
“It was difficult not to contrast the unqualified support of Evans, who DID do something badly wrong, with the treatment given to the entirely-innocent Michelle Thomson.”
“Even the Times, no friend of Alex Salmond, demanded her sacking.”
Nicola’s numerous apologists here will now shamelessly and hypocritically change their tune rather than being too ashamed to post on this site ever again.
Rock (2nd November 2018 – “Ifs and buts and maybes”):
“The iron was hot and ready to be struck the day after the Brexit referendum result.
If Alex Salmond had been in charge, he would have not missed the opportunity.
But cautious Establishment lawyer Nicola was not up to it.”
Rock (8th January – “Brass neck gleaming”):
“Nicola has the habit of not striking when the iron is hot.
The iron is very hot now and she must sack WITHIN 24 HOURS the two dishonest unionist civil servants who tried to destroy Alex Salmond.
If she wants to continue acting like an ultra cautious Establishment lawyer, she should not be leader of the SNP.”
Rock (8th December 2018 – “The Stoned Roses”):
“It was the ultimate in stupidity and gutlessness for Nicola to stand “shoulder to shoulder” with “Tory scum” Saint Theresa and the “ghastly” Boris Johnson as they declared war on Russia after a false flag operation.
She had no reason to open her mouth – she should have dismissed it as a reserved matter. That would have shut up the unionists. Instead she is now hostage to what she said.
Nicola has fully backed the dishonest unionist civil servant trying to destroy Alex Salmond.
The British Establishment has ZERO fear of Nicola but it is terrified of Alex Salmond.”
Rock (9th January – “The mess we’ve made”):
“So far, Alex Salmond has only had limited success because the Scottish government gave in only to avoid having to publish the emails and other correspondence which would have completely exposed the lying unionist civil servants.
Nicola and the Scottish government have squandered half a million pounds of taxpayers’ money to protect ying unionist civil servants.
The charges against Alex Salmond still stand, and as Craig Murrag rightly says, will be dragged on for a long time.
The ultra cautious Establishment lawyer Nicola has totally blown it, and her apologists are in complete denial.”
Rock (10th January – “The mess we’ve made”):
“No, but there is a whole horde of the likes of him here who see everything through their rose-tinted specs.
Nicola squandered a once in a 1000 years golden opportunity by wasting more than a year flogging a dead horse – a separate deal for Scotland which was never going to happen.
If blind faith in religion is bad, blind faith in politicians is worse.
No politician in Scotland has ever blown it as big time as Nicola did.”
Dr Jim @ 11.31 Right on!
There is no schism and if anything there is a realisation in the wider world that the Scottish media is corrupt and actively engaged in subverting democracy in Scotland.
I think AS is totally innocent. Nicola Sturgeon in wishing to gain the trust of women in defence against misogyny has become wrong footed by powerful women in the Civil Service who do not share her honesty and integrity. She is not Ceasar’s wife. She hushed her memory of the meaning of natural justice in an endeavour to give women justice. I sympathise but that circle is not easily squared..
Do I support her? Of course I do,because independence is more important for Scotland now than it has ever been. This story is already in its death throes.Fish and chips anyone?
There’s mileage to be gained from such a refreshingly-imaginative strategy.
Jack Collatin @11:54pm
Three points:
1. It won’t work out exactly as you predict. One thing we have learned from the Brexit disaster, is that nothing can be predicted accurately.
2. No material change? After two years of nonsense and worry for people. No Jack, whatever happens – things will never be the same with Blighty again – ever. We will either be dragged for another two years of “negotiation”, we will become an EU colony/vassal state with no say or it’s out altogether. OK, perhaps Indyref 2 still on hold, but whilst we are patiently waiting, we set up a second Indy party and destroy the block of 2nd rate BritNat list MSPs. What’s not tolike?
3. Nothing you wrote (even if some of it turns out to be accurate) would prevent AS setting up a hghly effective second Indy Party. Why would it depend on IndytRef2 coming to pass at a certain time? “A stretch too far?” – only in your own mind.
Oh, Rev, you’re an evil genius, so you are!
Dr Him @ 11.31
I think that’s the point the Rev is making Dr Jim!
This “civil war” this “split” is indeed an entirely Yoon creation.
Which at the very least (they hope) will prevent Alex and Nicola working together during Indy ref 2.
While this shit is going on every contact between them would have to be witnessed and/or recorded,simply because Nicola is First Minister, so even any advice that Alex could give to Nicola during Indy ref 2 can’t happen.
But to take the Media at their word and run with the split that -they- can so clearly see,would be a legitimate reason for Alex to set up a “rival” political party…..
Especially if he ment it when he said that Westminster had no seen the last of his Bonnet and him??
His party would level the playing fields a bit as it would be 3 parties each on the Yes and No side.
It would also put the one party state thing to bed (I know it’s a list only party,but the perception is there).
But looking to the future,post the Yes vote,it would also stop the British Nationalist parties trying to kill Indy at birth after the next Holyrood elections,if the Indy parties can win most of the list seats!
It would also put Alex right into the negotiations for Scotland’s share of the I assets.
Not that Nicola and her team aren’t capable,but again she will most likely be prevented from council with him,so let’s put him in the room and at the table?
I would join it I’m no currently a member of any party,and never have been…But this I’d join.
Mon Alex put that Bonnet Oan, let them see it?
Bob Mack, at midnight.
Just sayin’, like, Bob.
I may look at the odds of May resigning tomorrow morning.
The Red Tories are 6 points behind the Blue Tories in the latest poll.
They are terrified of Scotland leaving the UK and a Border Poll in Ireland.
There will not be a UKGE, May’s Withdrawl Bill will be crushed, Bercow will block a rerun next Monday, so what’s left?
No Deal? not going to happen. ergo, a second EU Referendum, which happily sets a precedent for Indyref2.
Does anyone really believe that Leslie Evans was working autonomously?
The beauty of the proposal is that it may shut up suggestions of a rift, and also use Labour’s List Rules against them.
Me @ 12.23
Nicola and her team ARE capable…
Dam auto correct….can we leave auto correct in Westminster after Indy?
If I’m reading the Rev right..
I don’t think we are supposed to Rocksplain here..
If there is anyone who can bring independence to Scotland before 2640 AD, it is Alex Salmond and the Rev. Stuart Campbell:
Rock (13th June 2014 – “To the editor of the Scotsman”):
“What hurts them most is your daily exposure of their lies without mincing your words. Remain focused on that job – you are performing brilliantly – don’t get distracted.
Remember that you are now the 2nd biggest threat to the Establishment and they will do everything in their power to get you.
My advice to you would be to move to Iceland – NOW – and carry on your work from there.”
Update to previous post:
The police and Dugdale did try to get the Rev. Stuart Campbell and I still believe he is not safe in the UK.
Rock (27th August 2017 – “Underneath the Goodyear blimp”):
“Despite the pretendy “sovereignty” and boasting of the clueless pompous armchair pundits posting here, Scotland is again as far away from independence as ever.
If they succeed in neutralising the Rev. Stuart Campbell and WOS, independence will be “stone dead” for at least 620 years.”
Rev you’ve been delving intae that book of Machiavellianism again . When you n Alex are ready wallets opened ( nae moths , they moth balls hiv done the joab but ah pain in the arse when ah sit doon .
Hmmm interesting, though I would doubt the man himself could carry the party as leader to garner “new voters” as there is just a legacy of “That Alec Sammin” sections of the populace “just canny stand” For that reason, part of me thinks that Alex is just too high profile a target and it would need a different face to front such a party if it hoped to gain the switherers – though I acknowledge that isn’t the mooted primary purpose.
Alex was enjoying being outwith any political body and the freedom it temporarily brought. But whether he likes it or not, that freedom is gone and he has been weaponised politically by enemies. He might as well just get on that horse and ‘lay about wi a wannion’
I’m meant to be on a diet, I couldn’t handle that scenario without buckets of popcorn!
Liz g says:
13 January, 2019 at 5:53 am
“Well… If I had to take a guess???
Since Nicola has known about all of this well before the story broke!!
You could claim a lot of things,but, being on the backfoot ain’t one!!
She hasn’t been caught out by it,I’d say.. But then again,, what do I know”
She has been caught on the wrong side of Evans, Lizzy.
Liz g says:
13 January, 2019 at 9:48 pm
“Don’t worry Ian I predict that by the year 2640AD we will have found the cure for narcissisism ?”
It won’t save you, Lizzy.
I know someone in who is well thought of in the Indy movement that has thought about starting a pro-independence party fighting for list votes, I have just made him aware of this article
Rock trying desperately to shift focus tonight. The BritNat brigade must be really worried in case Stu’s brilliant idea gains some traction.
I would rather Mr Salmond form a party seeking a mandate to declare the reconvening of the real Scottish Parliament that represented Scotland’s sovereignty:
The Scotland Act devolution parliament would be abolished and the Scottish Parliament would becomes the supreme parliament for Scotland. So, the Scottish Parliament would be able to scrutinise, amend or veto any UK legislation.
Of course the “British” would never accept such a Union where Scotland has real democracy and is not controlled like a colony, so the Union would be over very quickly.
I remember reading the original post at T-time (GMT-8) then it had disappeared the next morning.
No matter the outcome of the two enquiries, there should still be a judicial review.
Perjurers dragged into court, civil suits. Hopefully they all have to sign over their pensions to finance their own defence.
A halfway house will seem nice after a custodial sentence.
This will probably play out for another 2 to 3 years.
Looking forward to their ‘rats in a sack’ impression.
Truly sickening.
Interesting scenario. The signing up of Robertson now seems totally unlikely (lol)