Going strong
Posted on
June 27, 2018 by
Rev. Stuart Campbell
We’ve just got the results back from a new Panelbase poll of Scottish voters. As ever there’s some fascinating stuff in there, but we’ll start with the headline voting numbers:
HOLYROOD VOTING INTENTION (excl DK, chgs vs Dec 2017)
SNP 41 (+2)
Con 27 (-1)
Lab 22 (-3)
LD 6 (-)
Grn 2 (-)
(1018 Scottish voters, fieldwork 21-26 June 2018)
WESTMINSTER VOTING INTENTION (excl DK, chgs vs 2017 general election)
SNP 38 (+1)
Con 27 (-2)
Lab 25 (-2)
LD 7 (-)
Grn 2 (+2)
After more than 11 years in power the SNP have a frankly staggering 14-point lead at Holyrood and an 11-point lead at Westminster, with Labour stuck firmly in third place and the Tories seemingly past their peak. Scotland appears to have a settled will.
It’s coming. The tipping point. Brexit mess will muck it. Well done SNP and veryone who supports and votes. Happy days.
Or in the Herald ‘SNP less popular at Westminster. honeymoon over?’
Nice that they’ve maintained their lead. But still less than half voting for the two indy parties. What is WRONG with people!
Sometimes, after a long hard week or three in Scottish politics, getting buffeted and lied to by the MSM the public just shrug off all that crap.
Then the smoke clears and we, on the Nationalist side, have a keek round about and we’re still standing and not for the first or last time.
Well done all the S. Gov team past and present still fighting on Scotland’s behalf wie one hand tied behind their back too.
It’s getting closer 🙂
Aaats jist made a great day even greater.
BIG Smiley thing.
..then the pressing reason that we do not have time on our side right now, the reason we cannot sit back and admire ourselves knowingly, is because of the Tories shenanigans and Labour letting them get away with it.
What I find staggering is that the Conservative vote continues to hold up. They’ve hit their peak, but are we really seeing the solidifying of the unionist vote that’s triangulated behind them?
I suppose, if nothing else, it highlights why we still have a problem with independence; they grey vote, and those still influenced by our national press.
Are people beginning to smell the coffee rather than bilge water?
The Scotland the Grave parties still poll too high. What are these people scared of? Freedom?
Do they actually enjoy being bit-players in May & co’s crumbling theme park?
The LDs, what purpose might they serve in the great scheme of things? Political recycle bin?
A stack of application letters is sitting by my desk, ready to be sent off to Scottish employers the day after a Yes vote.
If I could come earlier I would, but the British Nationalists won’t let my Asian wife come into the country…
O/T
Scotland Office to fly the England Flag for the World Cup.
The above figures show that the Unionist Parties at Holyrood could cancel out holding IndyRef2 if we waited until AFTER the next Holyrood elections.
We MUST go for IndyRef2 next year.
The longer we leave it, the more chance we have of being out voted at Holyrood.
I of course don’t need to remind Nicola of this.
She is one cute cookie and always ahead of the game.
Right on time but the Tory vote reads as an overestimate a bit. Like to know the select method and was there the famous “weighting”
But it feeds into the real narrative. Labour in Scotland needs to come on board for independence (where a very significant proportion of its support already is -we know that possibly one third and growing of its support will vote YES – putting YES into a majority position) or Labour dies (if it is not already dead).
Only the media keeps Scottish Labour (and the fantasy LibDems)in the public eye.
The final battle in Scotland will be Independence against the Tories
[…] Wings Over Scotland Going strong We’ve just got the results back from a new Panelbase poll of Scottish voters. As […]
Still work to be done then is the conclusion, until the Indy vote exceeds 50% there will always be work to be done.
Even when it exceeds 50% work will still need to be done. We do not rest, get out there and in about them. Do not relent.
The goal is our Independence and it’s worth working for, let’s all do our wee bit without pausing for breath.
The Tories have working families in poverty. A steady rise in Foodbank demand. They treat the Scottish MPs and Holyrood in a very insulting manner. They are making an incredible mess of the Brexit negotiations. The Universal Credit fiasco is shameful. Then Windrush, Trident, Trump welcome, and on and on…..and still 27 percent of my fellow Scots continue to support them!
None so blind as those who will not see.
Of course over half the country still votes for Unionist Parties (different shades of Tory). Greed and self interest motivates Tories but why do the remains Labour and LibDem voters stay loyal?
Westminster voting intention:
Unionists 59 SNP 38
Following from Unionists United’s success at the last “snap” election, my prediction is that the SNP will lose a lot of seats at the next “snap” election.
Holyrood voting intention:
SNP 41
Thanks to the democratic Proportional Representation system, the SNP can expect to be the biggest party, but without a majority.
If Ken500’s beloved FPTP were to be used at the next Holyrood election, the unionists led by Pravda GB and the black arts department of the British Establishment would make sure the SNP was almost wiped out of the Scottish parliament.
In how may seats did the SNP get more than 50% support at the last Holyrood election?
hope yer keepin the best till last
Christopher Whyte says:
27 June, 2018 at 7:52 pm
What I find staggering is that the Conservative vote continues to hold up. They’ve hit their peak, but are we really seeing the solidifying of the unionist vote that’s triangulated behind them?
I suppose, if nothing else, it highlights why we still have a problem with independence; they grey vote, and those still influenced by our national press.
People vote for parties not people on the whole. Ask Joe Bloggs who his MP is, and a frightening number won’t be able to tell you. When you don’t know who it is, it’s a moot point whether they’re a bigot, fascist, idiot or baby killer. Tories defend the Union, and however shallow and fickle the logic, it’s still enough for some to put their cross in the box that feels like home.
What is constantly going on beneath most peoples’ radar is media’s framing of dialogue, the hectoring and interruptions of SNP spokespeople compared to the fawning respect and faux gravitas given to the Unionist perspective. Even before they say a word, Independendists are pidgeon holed as the troublemaking upstarts, while the Tories, Red or Blue, are given all the time and opportunity needed to put forward the Unionist Establishment’s perspective. It’s sickening to watch, but they don’t care.
There is no debate. There is no dialogue. When was the last time you watched any objective and dispassionate appraisal of Scotland’s feasible options? Such a thing would be unthinkable to the BBC.
From the media, it’s all pro Brexit, pro Westminster, anti SNP, and for the most part just hollow rhetoric that doesn’t even stack up… but then it doesn’t have to. And from the SNP, we get virtually nothing, no direction, no strategy, no impact assessments, just the same old uninspiring “wait and see”.
I don’t know that Brexit the Terrible will swing the polls as people expect. The media will sugarcoat even the most bitter pill, as it always does. Actual UK Journalism is dead. Dissent will be suppressed.
Nearly all of my faith for Independence and the rescue of our future as an EU Nation rests with the emancipation of our Sovereignty from the Union. That doesn’t require a democratic majority, it’s propaganda proof, and it is a matter of cold legal definition which will have to be proved, but which can be proved.
How will the country react? Go to bed in the United Kingdom, and wake up in an Independent Scotland? Risky, I can’t deny, but I can’t see our army of silver haired elderly Unionists taking up arms and rioting. Maybe we’ll get lucky and Unionism, faced with the indomitable proven case of our Constitutional Sovereignty will actually be sanguine and apathetic, resigned to its inevitability. Yeah, I don’t believe that either.
The Rangers head bangers and OO drum bangers might have a few riots and ugly scenes, but then again, they can’t fill a quiet street with 15,000 people. Maybe we should call their bluff. See if their heart is really in the Union, especially don’t forget once the shoe is on the other foot with Broadcasting, and the Sovereign Nation of Scotland has its own news media dictating the unadulterated narrative.
I’m just speaking for myself, but personally, my head is at the “we can do this the easy way, or the hard way” stage. There is no easy way, but we can at least still choose a theme for the least disruptive hard way. But we need to be more resolute in our stance, and pure bloody minded about defending our sovereignty.
Andy in Germany
but the British Nationalists won’t let my Asian wife come into the country…
Have you considered Surinder Singh route?
This must be the longest honeymoon in history!
Some marriages don’t make it this long.
I think it’s time for the Rev to do a new count of the Unionist newspapers and politicans’ wishful thinking headlines and predictions of ‘the honeymoon is over’.
Eventually of course honeymoons do end. But I fully expect Scotland will be independent by then.
I see Eeyore has clocked on again.
Little Bottom, Under Bottom or Nether Bottom or Rock bottom. Always feeding off the bottom.
FFS, cheer up laddie, you could even become depressed!
So it’s up to Labour supporters then so c’mon do you want to keep working for the Tories or would you like your country back, it’s make yer mind up time
Tories or Country what’ll it be Hmm?
I don’t like the Tories having 27%. How’s that even possible.
Rock at 9.20
Westminster voting intentions and referendum voting intentions are very differnt thing,as I am sure you are aware.
No poll gave the SNP the Scottish Government in 2007,the Scottish Parliament vote in 2012 or the 56 out of 59.
They did give Clinton winning, a huge majority for Tmay and a huge swing to Labour at the English council elections. Oh dear!
Once we start a campaign we will soon push above the 50% mark though whether any of these polls which we don’t control and don’t own will ever publish that I seriously doubt.
And then there’s “weighting”.
We have the army.We have huge speakers ready lined up all across the country but silent as of now. There will be many surprises! They have nothing but the lying establishment media. We haven’t even started yet.
@Big Jock
I don’t know how people are chosen or how they conduct the polls. I don’t personally know anyone that has taken part in one of these polls. Is it landline contact??
All heading in the right direction.
But as others have said, who votes for any of the unionist cabal given how clear it’s been recently that they have nothing to offer Scotland.
It can only be our disgraceful media that bears responsibility for keeping the wheels on that rickety wagon.
Just imagine those Voting Intention %s if Scotland had a truly free and fair media.
A media that honestly without prejudice, reported the EU Withdrawal Bill Power Grab and the ramifications of Brexit to the UK in general and Scotland in particular.
A proper investigative media which had the balls to shine a light of truth into the dark corners and highlight the racism, sectarianism, Islamophobia, xenophobia, greed and elitism which are the pillars of One Nation British Nationalism.
A media which called out the hypocrisy, bitterness, inability and shallowness of Colonel Yadaftie, Richard Leontard and Wee Wullie 1p.
Just imagine those Voting Intention %s then….
We are in the “Then they fight you” stage as per Gandhi.
Continue to spread the truth all media sources you can.
Fight the power of the Non-Dom MSM Press Barons and The BritNat Broadcasting Corporation.
These figures are pretty remarkable then when you consider they are after a concerted Scotland Shite ‘cos EssEnnPeeBaad, British Nationalist Propaganda campaign over the last 5 – 6 Years (if not longer).
The BritNats are losing.
They know they are losing.
Devolution is dead.
It is only a matter of time before the Union is over.
It just hasn’t been reported properly.
BBC Radio Scotland did a good piece at 5 pm on Scots Tory / DUP Brexit funding scam but not a mention on TV news which is watched by ten times more of the population.
ScottieDog @9.56m
One of my sons was phoned about a month ago, first time ever. It was a Survation poll I think? They were particularly keen to get him because of his age group (19 – 34) since they phoned twice apparently, until he was available. So I’m guessing that it might be a problem getting people from younger age groups by landline.
@Southern Rock says: 27 June, 2018 at 8:41 pm:
O/T
!Scotland Office to fly the England Flag for the World Cup.”
I couldn’t care less if Fluffy flew his bra & knickers on the
Anti-Scottish Office flag pole. All Scotland knows he and his entire office staff are against Scotland.The stary of the rise back and hope we call indy on the triple mandate without the need for a referendum.
@Thepnr. Yes, all of what you said.
@ Robert Peffers
Lets not forget that the Scotland Office has increased its staff from 5 to 71 since 2010 and is propaganda unit of the UK government spending £686,000 on media engagement. Alson its budget of £9 million a year is deducted from the money the Scottish government gets from the Barnett formula.
Also funny how narrow nationalists are slated for supporting anyone but England yet Brit Nats can be bigoted against Germany, Argentina and France in the world Cup without any comment.
Agree with Jockanese that these figures are remarkable considering the daily onslaught of Unionist propaganda we get from the media. All things being equal, these figures should be reversed with the SNP in the 20s and Tories in 30s and 40s. But they’re not, and we can take great hope from that.
The average age of a BBC1 viewer is 60, so at least the younger members of the electorate aren’t all in thrall to what the BBC would like its viewers to believe. Another positive.
Await with bated breath the poll we’re all waiting for, but am prepared for a no change of 44/56, 45/55 or 46/54 as per usual these days!
O/T re. recent comments about Private Eye:
In the run-up to the 2014 Indy Ref, I thought Private Eye would have big fun with the ridiculous bollocks coming from Better Together. As I soon realised, they had no intention of doing this and instead, actively ridiculed independence. When I phoned them to cancel my subscription, they told me I was paid-up until December. I agreed with this, but asked for them to just keep the money but not send me any more mags. I hope that came across to them as ‘your mag is so shit that I will even pay you to not send it to me’.
I was on the Stirling march, and agree that some of the banners and language were inappropriate, but I must confess to joining in with that lovely old song ‘You can stick your Tunnock’s Tea Cakes up your arse’.
Re. my £5 donation to WOS at the Dumfries march, I really thought that this would just go into a collection tin. So, sorry to Ronnie Anderson for having to go out of your way to deposit it, and for the embarrassment of having to name me as the donor to the bank staff. Could have been worse though, as I nearly chose the name ‘Juan Kerr’ for online comments.
Off Topic folks but i hope you enjoy this investigation into DUP dark money, the brexit referendum and Scotland –
link to eurofree3.wordpress.com
I’m with Mr Peffers re England flag been flown at the UK Scottish Office…they simply don’t get it, we’re not against England. We’re against jumped up little Tory farts like Fluffy having any kind of say in our country Scotland, especially as Scotland does not vote Tory.
If he loves England so much he should apply for the Secretary of State for England job…after all England is just a part of the UK to….oh wait…
Odd framing of the stats, if we look back to the GE for Westminster, should we not compare holyrood to the 46.5% constituency vote at the 2016 elections?
At the 2017 General Election a lot of the SNP 2015 vote sat on their hands and didn’t vote, some drifted back to Labour and some LD voted Tory. Should there be another GE soon it would be a bit different from 2017 as there is now a reason for them to vote as the increase in the SNP membership numbers indicate. They are more fired up and the Corbyn effect has run its course.
ScottieDog
I received an invite to this online poll via a shopping website that I get points for either visiting their website partners or viewing their email. Only when I clicked on the link in the email was I re-directed to Panelbase. Maybe they were needing a rather mature person compared to all you youngsters in your 50’s or earlier.
I’m sorry, but after all the shambolic goings-on over Brexit and a power grab, and the lies about the Skripals and Syria, the Grenfell and Windrush scandals and Trump’s overt ending of any fictional special relationship with the UK, which the Brexiteers are relying on, I find these poll figures, if remotely accurate, utterly depressing.
@Monica Worley says: 27 June, 2018 at 7:29 pm@
” … But still less than half voting for the two indy parties. What is WRONG with people!”
Nothing really, Monica. After all the poll is for voting for parties at respectively Holyrood & Westminster – it is not about a referendum on independence.
I’ve been an SNP supporter for going on 70 years now but the last thing I want to see in an independent Scotland is a one party state. I expect many SNP party members to slowly gravitate to the left and right after independence. This is right in an independent democratic modern state.
Marcia
There is also evidence that a significant amount of Labour support went over to Tory.
Remember, a lot of the pro-indy Labour support had already left Labour for the SNP by then, leaving pretty much a hardcore unionist concentration in the party.
Some of that hardcore unionist support were Britnat brainwashed enough to join Ruth Davidson’s unionist consolidation, despite domestic politics proclivity, as the last bastion of the union.
Scottish Labour’s apparent non change in level of support was due to that departing deluderatti being compensated by conned again Corbynists from the SNP.
That explains why there has been a jump up of support for indy amongst recent Labour voters. i.e. they are Labour returners from the SNP beguiled by the false prospective of the Corbynistas.
Final thought, nobody needs Corbyn more than the Tory party, especially the unionist variety. That is the only reason he has survived.
ScottieDog at 9.56
Landline polls always favour middle class and older voters at home and give a small but significant benefit to the Tory vote.
I do not for one moment believe the Tory vote in Scotland is at 27%.
I also know two lifelong Tories who voted and will vote YES.
Parliamentary votes and referendum independence votes are significantly different things
The only poll that is significant is one the SNP government commissions, controls and does not publish.
@JGedd says: 27 June, 2018 at 10:12 pm@
… So I’m guessing that it might be a problem getting people from younger age groups by landline.
I made that point several times since commenting on Wings. How many under 30s even have a phone line theses days? The only reason to have a line was for the internet and now most folks that haven’t gone Fibre for the internet are just waiting for fibre arriving in their area.
Going by the numbers with phoned glued to their ears these days, and most older folks, particularly if they have health problems, don’t go out without a mobile.
Landline phones are almost a thing of the past. So just what does that do for biased polls?
The first thing is the people being polled are mainly householders and able to afford a phone line.
Count chickens when they are hatched.
And even then some die.
Yes it looks good. But not good enough to represent a serious realisation by the bulk of respondents that they are being shafted.
Apparently many are still bamboozled by the bullshit.
Compare our starting points in 2014 and now. We haven’t even started campaigning in the fast lane yet and we’re at 41% for the Scottish elections. In 2014 we started way below that and ended up just under 50% for Indy.
Brexit is a big factor this time round. Huge movement on social media of people coming over to Yes / joining the SNP.
The Football commentary is appalling. Unbelieveable. Just like all the MSM. Ignorance incompetent.
The Polls are used to manipulate the results.
FPTP is the most popular for good reason. The SNP would win Holyrood/councils outright. No unionist collusion to keep the SNP out. Unfair and unjust. Democractic deficiency in Scotland. The reason why the electoral system was illegally changed without a mandate by the unionists. There would not be 3rd rate rejects causing trouble and telling lies.
2015 election unique. SNP gained 50% of the vote. The only time that has ever been achieved in the UK. 2017 Less people voted. Lower turnout. Davidson lied to the voters. Liars always get found out.
Independence supporters will have to realise voting unionist will not support Independence. The sooner the better. Irrationally criticising the SNP will not help Independence cause or Scotland being governed better,
Migrants and refugees are treated worst in the rest of the UK than in the US. They can be detained for years unlawfully in the UK. The UK/US (France) illegal wars in the Middle East have caused the worst migration crisis in the world since the 11WW.
O/T Ahoy Maritime Wingers!
Was it one of you moored at the head of Loch Broom overnight Tues/Wed this week? A distinguished looking mature gentleman with flowing locks…
I ask because the red flag at the stern had a saltire in the corner [instead of the usual UJ] and I remembered reading btl on Wings a couple of years ago that such a flag was official in the 18th century, I think, and the gentleman writing was trying to revive the practice.
Anyhow I rushed indoors and fetched out the saltire that Dave McEwan Hill had sent me and waved it like mad. The yachtsman spotted it and altered course to wave to me. Then the phone rang…
Another glorious day up here – dead calm and full sun – we’ll pay for it…probably in cleggs.
The reason we still have a high proportion of fellow Scots voting for British Nationalist parties is due to several reasons. We have a mainstream media in Scotland which is 98% hostile to the idea of independence – I have always maintained that if just 20% of the mainstream media in Scotland supported independence then support for our cause would be around 10% higher, thus securing a ‘YES’ vote.
Then there are individuals like my father who will always vote ‘NO’ because Britishness transcends everything for him. He drinks his morning coffee from a union flag mug, supports ‘The Rangers’ and has a 2018 Royal Family calendar.
I am in the process of emigrating to Japan next month because the UK Home Office won’t let my beautiful Japanese wife live with me in Scotland. The UK media attack Trump for separating families and children – yet the UK government have been doing this for 6 years.
My mother is now a supporter of independence because the Tories have made it impossible for her to have any kind of meaningful relationship with her grandchildren (besides weekly video calls). Yet despite everything the UK Government has done to my family, my own father will still reject independence – people like him are truly lost.
Ach, we know you Rev,
Your keeping the interesting statistics till nearer the end eh?, which could be a month or so away.
Indeed remarkable. Scotland should continue to act and sound like an independent country as it takes small incremental steps towards the inevitable. Which is an appropriate aspiration for a country that is not a region of another country. It is very important that a new functioning democracy emerges as the ‘west cracks up’
‘Trump and his coreligionists’ incessant slandering of allies – “we cannot let our friends take advantage of us” – is leaving its mark. Putting aside his apparently unconditional support for Saudi Arabia and Israel, Trump seems prepared to destroy the essential strategic understanding that the US has long maintained vis-à-vis its allies…If bad manners were the only issue with the Trump administration, we could all rest easier. But that administration is also pursuing concrete policies that are undercutting America’s most important alliances…During the 2016 US presidential campaign, Trump supported the United Kingdom’s bid to withdraw from the EU. Since taking office, his administration has not hesitated to weaken the bloc whenever it can.
Just a few days ago, Richard Grenell, the US ambassador to Germany, said that he is working to “empower other conservatives in Europe” – a clear departure from diplomatic protocol. Of course, the Europeans whom Trump and Grenell would support are not really conservatives, but reactionaries. Their goal is to reverse the progress that we Europeans have made in advancing our shared project’
link to socialeurope.eu
One should avoid hand holding with that particular individual at all costs.
It’s not just an ageing population, it’s an ageing Tory cohort that keeps their masters in power, regardless of, well anything.
We must break the grey cringer’s cycle of miserable subservience.
Improving Education, The Scottish Gov should bring the statatory limit for class sizes down to 27 or less. Also increased pro rata levels for addition needs teachers. More additional needs module should be included in teacher training and available for other teachers who desire the information. To help the teachers to deal with some excess stress and pressure. Most of them do an excellent job. Much better nowadays.
This would stop councils from cutting the education allocated budget to build non mandated shops and offices, with the funding. How they get it through planning is a mystery? When there are plenty empty. Spend the funds properly on allocated funding service. Essential services ie education and social care. Building affordable houses and schools,
Even more offices, shops, hotels and Conference Centres when there are already many lying empty and unused. Unoccupied levels. They are supposed to be funded by private sector investment. Not misused allocated, excessively borrowed public money. There is a need for pedestrianised and open spaces. Not unnecessary concrete jungles. A total waste of public money by the council authorities. Often from excess unecessary borrowing. Putting a strain on (Council) tax levels.
The attainment levels are being skewed by not included mature students no in the figures. If mature students (20/25%? some poorer backgrounds) were included in the figures the attainment level % would rise. Relevant figures are being left out of the equation/calculations. To not achieve realistic results. Life long learning.
These results show conclusively Scotland has changed. And we’re not going back in our box. Almost four years of MSM propaganda being shouted at us morning, noon and night and it has had zero impact.
It may have helped hold the line for the Union but we are now beginning to see that line breaking as more and more former NO voters are turning to YES.
Scotland’s independence is not a matter of ‘if’ but of ‘when’. And all the king’s horses and all the king’s men, plus the BBC and the MSM can do hee haw to stop it.
It is utterly deplorable that Westminster unionists keep people and their families out of Scotland. Scotland is half empty because of Westminster centralistic economic policies. Just undefensible. They are cruelty and coarsely deporting people from Scotland. Even changing the rules to do it. It is just so sad and wrong when Scotland needs people for economic expansion.
There are ways of settling in EU counties to access citizenship in the UK. Just economically difficult. To get a job/house etc even for a short period. Enough families from Scotland have been separated because of Westminster unionist policies in the past and present. Truly appalling this is still continuing. Totally unnecessary and causing hardship. Just despicable meanness by the UK Gov.
I wish everyone would go easy on the Herald, Daily Record etc
They’re cowards.
And cowards claw to what they know until it is unbelievably obvious to do otherwise.
Then they’ll flip over to us.
Only a matter of time, Pigeon steps, but getting there.
The demographic timebomb ticking away, ignored by most, in the corner of the national room.
link to thenational.scot
This ageing issue could scupper independence. Scotland is contraceptive liberty hall, a land of easy abortion and appears proud of it, even meddling in Northern Irish affairs regarding the matter.
Scotland is not alone in having anti-reproductive attitudes, the replacement levels in the EU indicate dramatic population decline with socio-economic consequences that will ‘hurt’ future generations.
Relying on immigrants to boost population is to say the least socio-culturally ‘problematic’. Encouraging a positive attitude that regards children as an ‘asset’ instead of a liability would be less so. A dying Scotland, even if independent, would be entering Europe’s Twilight Home.
Trumps policies and influence have been vastly exaggerated. An obsession. Swings and roundabouts. Some gains some losses. Totallly too much oversized publicity. MSM have nothing else to do. Marmite. Like or loath him. A change in direction is what some voters wanted. Trying to sort out the mess. They got it. What will they do with it? Senate elections every two years. People have to be registered. Presidential elections every four years. Quite soon. Only serve two terms. Then on to the next one. The checks and balances do not always work. D’ Hond’t electoral colleges. Depends on how each State voted. The loser wins.
ottomanboi at 8:49
Thanks
Funniest piece of nonsense I’ve read in a long time…….and it being so early…..you can’t even blame the drink!
Scottish voters can vote against Westminster centralist economic policies. Depopulating Scotland, Devolution 2000 has reversed the tread. Just vote SNP/SNP vote for Independence. Simple. To formulate policies better in Scotland.
Robert Peffers, fraid for most folk unless they are on Virgin or Sky platforms still need a phone line with their fibre as the fibre only goes to the cabinet on the street, the last few metres are still by traditional copper. Btw Hydro (SSE) have great deal just now, £24 pm unlimited fibre and phone line. Plus package for unlimited calls as it can be expensive otherwise as i have just found out.
And no contract so your not tied to them for 18 months.
Sarah 7.16am. “A distinguished looking mature gentleman with flowing locks”. Obviously a yes voter then as his knuckles werent scraping the ground.
The only people afraid of democracy are those who don’t want you to have it:
Apart from the decision making Independence is about respect for ouselves and respect from others in the world as an entity a state a country being involved in the affairs of the world and not some forgotten peninsula of England with it’s ever changing identities to protect their own incompetence at the expence of the other countries within its Union
Post Independence folk should NOT expect the respect of England because the ideology of English governments has always been to promulgate the notion that Englishness Britishness is somehow superior to the rest of the world and that’s one of the reasons why Scots don’t care for that attitude because we in Scotland don’t generally see ourselves as better than anybody but we do see ourselves as just as good and just as worthy
So there’s the point of Independence to be recognised as worthy and within this Benighted Kingdom that’ll never happen ever even when we leave but other countries will see us as worthy and there are more of them and they want to be our pals but England DEMANDS to be our masters
There’s no choice for Scotland but to join the rest of the world just the same as the Entire British Empire did when they left England before us and did anybody hear if those countries have been on the phone lately wanting to rejoin the United Kingdom of England project again
Been to the Republic of Ireland lately? You couldn’t get them back in the UK under threat of nuclear war, they’d still vote against it, very democratic the Irish and they have lots of referendums too and nobody’s afraid of catching the democracy disease of getting a vote on something
The only people afraid of democracy are those who don’t want you to have it
@ Liz g
e mail sent. Let me know if it doesn’t reach you.
Taps Aff to all.
As the EU withdrawal bill has been given royal ascent despite the rejection of the Scottish people, we can now assume that the Queen no longer supports her requirement regarding her Scottish obligations.
I was ambivalent to royalty but after independence I would now support removing them from any involvement in Scotland. Do we need a head of state that has an England First mindset.
Phronesis says:
28 June, 2018 at 7:59 am
‘Trump and his coreligionists’ incessant slandering of allies – “we cannot let our friends take advantage of us” – is leaving its mark. Putting aside his apparently unconditional support for Saudi Arabia and Israel…. Their goal is to reverse the progress that we Europeans have made in advancing our shared project’….
Agreed.
I wouldn’t go so far as to say it was the objective, however you have to wonder at the extent to which American foreign policy in the Middle East, and its propensity towards military intervention, was influenced by creating an exodus of refugees who were always going to be a problem for European countries to cope with.
I firmly believe the US, and it’s allies the UK and Israel, believed an influx of Muslim refugees would test Europe’s patience with exposure to Islamic fundamentalists and terrorist incidents, and that the US led coalition could be much more hawkish in its suppression of Muslims and its challenge towards Russian influence in the region.
I believe the EU is to economic trade what NATO is to strategic military defence, but the EU is inaccessible to the US. The US did however have a man inside the EU, being disruptive and creating problems, and pursuing the same anti Muslim, anti Russian agenda inside the EU.
It didn’t work however. The Anti Muslim xenophobic rhetoric only took hold in the UK and brought about Brexit… Decision time for the UK to suckle on the US teat or the EU’s, and the Neoliberals chose the American way.
The UK is now screwed however, because the UK was only useful to the US while it had influence with Europe. Since the UK has jumped ship, it has won the “booby prize” of closer trade links with the US, but a US which had its heart set on European markets, not an isolated and failing UK economy.
Oh there will still be the outward presence of the special relationship between the US and UK, because that’s two permanent seats on the UN Security Council taken care of, and
a partner in crimean ally for military intervention, but behind the facade, the UK’s value as a commodity to the US has been greatly diminished.Don’t get me wrong, I am pro Europe and anti Brexit to the core, but forced into a choice between the US and Europe, the UK Establishment was always going to choose the US. The real “stupid” factor was the UK forcing itself into making the choice, when there was no serious imperative to do so.
The irony is, Scotland is now facing a very similar Crunch decision. Does it stay with the US/UK conglomerate as an appendage Scotland on an appendage UK, or does Scotland come of age, and choose to stand on its own two feet underneath the European umbrella?
See, that’s where I think Scotland currently stands… opinion is polarised between those pre-Europe, and those pro UK/US. That is THE choice facing Scotland. I really do not like the concept of a “middle way” compromise that sees Scotland chained to the UK but trying to be European through an EFTA type arrangement. I do not see how it is in Scotland’s interests to make itself strategically unimportant.
We must choose the European way, or the US way, and every instinct I have is screaming in my head to choose Europe and do it decisively.
On polling companies, in case you missed it.
link to bloomberg.com
This a serious ‘must read’. It also talks of the 2014 referendum.
Not only are polls commissioned in order to manipulate the markets, how difficult do you think it is for these companies to manipulate results with a little pre-selection of those polled.
Most of their clients are commercial and so they have accumulated a huge amount of data. A company like YouGov knows what toothpaste the people they poll use and whether you bought UJ knickers in the last year.
If you want no voters who haven’t changed their since 2014 just see how many UJ flags, bunting, beach towels and mugs they have bought.
Conversely, a person whose livelihood depends on EU trade is more likely to have changed.
@Guybrush Threepwood at 7.52:
Very sorry to hear about your personal troubles with the “Home” [how ironic] Office. Yet another example of appalling treatment. If only the Mail, Sun etc etc spent a week with such stories on their front pages – I’m sure it would turn most voters against the UK governments and system.
As for your father’s attitude, I had a thought this morning – what about saying Scotland wants to be England’s equal i.e. by choosing our own government, just as England does? No suggestion of rejecting England nor of aggression.
@bobp: LOL!!
link to facebook.com
If this poll was done using land-lines then it is fatally flawed in favour of the Brit-Nat ( Brats ) parties.
Most young people do not have Land-lines, or like me let it run on to the answering machine before deciding whether I should answer it or not. None of these people will be represented on this poll.
There is almost a non-stop campaign against the SNP in the media particularly the BBC yet it has little to no impact on the polls. I think in part this is because so few people take in what the newspapers and TV news say any more.
I think peak Tory is past. It was fortunate that most of the 13 elected last time have failed to impress. Arrogant, racist and clearly should be in UKIP would cover most of them. I wonder if the Mad Col will try to do the No Surrender thing again. I am not sure there are any Labour voters left that will buy that particular brand of Kool Aid.
Ottomanboi 8.49
Well, we could always solve our immigration problem this way.
link to archive.is
@louis.b.argyll says: 28 June, 2018 at 8:02 am:
” … We must break the grey cringer’s cycle of miserable subservience.”
Crap! There wouldn’t be an SNP nor an independence movement in Scotland if it were not for the aged grey nationalists that kept on fighting against the British Nationalists/United Kingdom since 1934 when the SNP was formed by the amalgamation of Scottish Independence parties.
they/we fought on when the Westminster security services were tracking down people such as Willie MacRae and throwing such as Arthur Donaldson into prison without charges ever being brought against him.
The point is that those aged grey cringers you would have us believe are the problem is claptrap. They are from an older demographic because they are the remnants of the supporters of British/English nationalist political parties branch offices in Scotland and, because these parties are losing the battle of Scottish independence they are inevitably democratically becoming older. Just as the independence movement is inevitable getting demographically younger.
In other words as a faction losing supporters the remaining unionists will be increasingly older and as a faction gaining supporters the faction will be increasingly younger but the reason is NOT because they are older but because they are not attracting nearly so much younger supporters.
Take note of the any Winger commenters who are from an older generation who often comment they have always supported independence and the large number of younger Wings commenters who often remark they will never vote Labour ever again.
i.e. They were once unionist voters but now are not. Independence supporting people don’t suddenly become unionist voters upon reaching a specific age.
O/T: British “democracy” in action:
link to theguardian.com
Why Blair, Brown and Straw et al aren’t in prison awaiting trial at the International Court for war crimes is beyond me.
PS Sorry, Stu, don’t know how to do archiving!
Ottomanboi
Initially the demographic bulge will benefit independence as those over 65 voted 70/30 in favour of No. So as the baby boomers shuffle off this mortal coil the demographics swing in favour of Yes.
It is no great surprise that this is going to happen. The post war baby boom created a bulge. Like a ripple in a carpet if you push it along it will reach the edge and then the carpet will be flat again. The only way to have avoided a period of greater deaths than births was to have continually high birth rates. This was never likely as socio-economic pressures trended to smaller families.
Post independence we should look to a number of possibilities, including attracting the Scottish diaspora back home as well as encouraging families and having a sane immigration policy. The Tory decision not to fund third children and beyond is an example of Government policy designed to dampen the birth rate. That is within the Union.
LOOK BACK IN ANGER – Opinion polls, hedge funds and fixing Referendum results.
link to bloomberg.com
“Polling firms found a way to tap deep-pocketed commercial clients for election polling during the Scottish independence referendum in September 2014.
It all started when a pair of YouGov polls in the British press set off a national panic ahead of the vote. YouGov had nationalists closing the gap, and then, days later, jumping ahead with fewer than two weeks left in the campaign. Nervous investors sent the British pound and bank stocks down sharply. Shocked government leaders responded, just days before the vote, by promising a greater devolution of powers to the Scottish people if they stayed in the U.K., a pledge known as “The Vow.” Critics would later charge that misleading YouGov data, which proved fantastically off the vote, had shaped the future of an entire country.
The phones in YouGov’s offices rang like mad in the days between the Scottish polls and the referendum. Hedge fund executives were among those on the line. If YouGov was conducting another poll before the vote, traders said, they’d be willing to pay vast sums for a heads-up just 30 minutes to an hour before publication, according to two knowledgeable sources. Since news of the poll alone likely would move markets, the survey’s accuracy was meaningless; traders simply needed to know the results before they became public. They offered YouGov several multiples more than the newspapers had paid to commission the polls in the first place, the two insiders recalled. YouGov rejected these offers, the insiders said. Survation, along with at least one other pollster, saw other opportunities.
Survation organized and sold last-minute tracking polls and a syndicated exit poll for the Scottish referendum to some of the world’s biggest hedge funds, according to three knowledgeable sources. Clients included Brevan Howard Asset Management, then managing about $37 billion, Tudor Investment Corp. and the Japanese firm Nomura Holdings Inc., according to one knowledgeable source. Brevan Howard even hired a second U.K. pollster, ICM Unlimited, and merged data from the two companies into its trading decisions, the source said. Pollsters at Survation and ICM streamed results throughout the day of the vote, allowing their hedge fund clients to place bets while voters were still casting ballots. Brevan Howard, Tudor and Nomura declined to comment for this story.
By early the next morning, it was clear that Scottish voters had rejected independence overwhelmingly. The YouGov poll that had sparked the most turmoil had missed the final mark by 6 points. Survation’s private exit poll, however, was accurate enough that its clients had what they needed to profit, according to knowledgeable sources. A lucrative line of business was born for two industries.”
Conclusion : The result of the Independence Referendum in September 2014 is a question of belief, not truth.
The UK Government and the City have all the mechanisms of propaganda and organisational control, to create any desired result of any Referendum.
If not of any election.
The only reason to have true and fair elections is a genuine belief in democracy. Such belief must be very doubtful indeed among the UK ruling class.
While hedge fund managers make hundreds of millions
America the country that makes cheese with no cheese in it
America the country that soaks chicken in chlorine
so it’ll last longer before you ingest it into your body
Who would ever have thought that a government of any colour would decide to give its people no choice over what it eats knowing what it is offering to eat is below the rest of the civilised worlds food standards
American food coming to you post Brexit and you don’t get a choice
Just want to point this out quickly Jacob Rees Moggs billions are now firmly lodged in Dublin and Luxemburg because he has total confidence in Britains future to be the kind of country he wants, a Britain where the poor and outright ordinary are kept well away from the people who actually matter, people like Jacob
Robert Peffers @ 10.18 pm =) =) 🙂
Highland Wifee, yes we are moving in the right direction =) And we do have work to do!
But has anyone considered that there may be those within the ranks of Labour in Scotland and mibee even the ranks of the Tories in Scotland and the Liberal Democrats in Scotland who may yet be YES?
All polls are false they ask a limited number of people they never tell you how many then they insult our intelligence by implying this represents the opinion of,65 million people the whole country and if they get a poll that shows an increase in support for Scottish freedom they simply don’t print it the whole thing is a complete farce ignore them they only exist to try to influnence the gullable it is out and out fraud
@Ghillie – there are Tories/Labour/Libdem for Yes groups. T for Yes were at both AUOB marches, I understand.
One would hope that they may influence their fellows of the case for Scotland becoming like England i.e. self-governing.
starlaw You are right and youvare wrong! All polls will have a spread of polsters of different ages, they tend to ask more elderly, but they are meant to be weighted to reflect that fact. The question is were 16-18 year olds asked?
Manandboy, thats dynamite, unfortunately the link doesnt work, you didnt archive it by any chance?
@Lenny Hartley says: 28 June, 2018 at 9:13 am:
“Robert Peffers, fraid for most folk unless they are on Virgin or Sky platforms still need a phone line with their fibre as the fibre only goes to the cabinet on the street,”
Indeed but if they are on a fibre service the copper bit of the line will likely end in the newer BT/Openreach outlet. That does have the filters fitted in the outlet and it has two separate sockets one for internet and one for phone.
What is more the ISPs, like Vodafone, have pledged to replace all copper links to the street boxes with fibre. Personally I do use the phone socket on the Openreach outlet as I have problems hearing voices on phones.
So I use a FAX/Speaker Phone/Answer machine that directs callers to my FAX and mobile phone that I use for text only.
Mind you that arrangement is now long outdated as you can now use your computer to do the same job but I had the FAX/speaker phone/answer machine anyway when I finally got fibre at my semi-rural address so it was just a matter of plugging a phone cable into the new linebox.
Thus the phoneline is not part of my wired home network.
Sarah
Tories for Yes -is there a pic with a banner? That would be very powerful to distribute.
Guybush.
Infuriating imposed Britnat policy totally inappropriate for Scotland.
Anyway, all the best in Japan.
Oh and don’t be tempted to stop off at Monkey Island on the way, sounds like you already have all the treasure you need. 😉
Robert Peffers re fibre and phone line, they are part of the package you cannot seperate them, therefore as i said most folk with fibre will also have a phone line, whether they choose to use it is up to them and they are already paying the rental.
@Giving goose – can’t see one on the AUOB facebook but there is a Scottish YES TORIES twitter which might help.
Yes that poll appears to be good news.
It’s just a pity more of us are dying than are being born in Scotland. We could do with control of immigration.
link to thenational.scot
Sarah @ 7.16 am I love your maritime tale! That WAS sharp eyed of you to spot our Saltire where it rightfully belongs!
And how lovely that the yaght’s man of the flowing locks altered course to salute you and your Saltire 🙂 To me, that is the joy our hope for Independence brings =)
And yes, Sarah @ 10.52 am I did know about the Labour/Libdem/Tory groups for Yes =) It must take quite a bit of courage to stand up for Scotland in that way and still stay loyal to their party of choice.
I was actually thinking of the MPs and more likely MSPs of the Labour/Libdem/Tory persuasion who could yet declare their support for Independence 🙂
Again, that will take courage.
And I am sure it will never be regretted!
The red flag with the saltire in the corner is the Scottish Naval Ensign, which in due course will fly again from the ships of the Scottish Navy
link to en.wikipedia.org
Anent demographics – Robert Peffers is correct. What matters is the normalisation of Scottish Independence in each cohort as it comes of age. The split puts about +0.8% a year on Independence support. It’s slow, but much more effective than political campaigning. Politics is the froth on the waves; demographic change is the tide coming in underneath, inexorably. Parity in 2020, crushing majority from the mid 2020s onwards
NB – Which doesn’t mean we have to wait that long, if the opportunity presents itself.
It won’t archive, Lenny. Full url minus http –
link to bloomberg.com
Blair paterson 10.47 am. Agree with you here,all polls are rigged to get the result they want. The only poll that will count is on the day when we tick the box that says ” should Scotland be an independent country. YES.
@Ghillie says: 28 June, 2018 at 10:46 am:
” … But has anyone considered that there may be those within the ranks of Labour in Scotland and mibee even the ranks of the Tories in Scotland and the Liberal Democrats in Scotland who may yet be YES?”
Let me put it this way, Ghillie, there is only two demographic groups that the independence movement can gain voters from.
Those just gaining the franchise and former unionists, (Far as I know aliens to Planet Earth don’t yet get to vote).
;-))
So, because people who are independence voters don’t suddenly wake up the day the reach a certain age and have become unionists overnight, then there is only former unionists and new voters to persuade to vote for independence and we already know that a majority of new voters chose to vote for independence.
So yes, we have indeed considered that we need to convince former unionists to stop being unionists. However, it is my opinion that The Westminster Establishment, and their tame propaganda wing, are doing a great job in convincing former unionists to support independence.
Probably they are presently more successful in that task than is the entire YES movement put together.
In reference to the general belief that the media has had no influence and or effect.
I honestly believe that that is not so, they have had a huge effect and not in a benign way.
Like the Vietnam war the Media and the Presidency followed the line that the “boys” were winning and it would only take one big push. And this in a time where the Media were considerably freer than now. They held the line and the War went on!
So back to today and Scotland, we have a much more complaint and on message Media in this country than 60’s America. So remember that it took decades for the peace movement to “divide” the country but divide it they did. They achieved this by being visible and never stopping. This caused the State to mobilize every trick they had CIA FBI etc (tin hats conspiracy at the time, documented truth now)!
But they were forced to overplay their hand and trust in the Media, State, Army and Presidency were eroded.
We are, i think there or there abouts, the marches terrify them and the media is being forced to give one more Big Push, to win. Even though they know they are losing and their pronouncements sound more insane and manic by the day.
So as i see it they are keeping the lid on the Movement but barely succeeding. They know that they will lose hence the fight to stop any vote on the subject and the struggle to de-legitimize the very idea.
We must continue to “frighten” the sheep, we must continue to grow and if our betters tell us we are not winning… Remember America, John Wayne and the Media were Winning in Vietnam till they had helicopters evacuating the Embassy.
I so want to watch Fluffy being helicoptered out of the UK Government in Scotland Office!
@Lenny Hartley says: 28 June, 2018 at 11:13 am:
” … Robert Peffers re fibre and phone line, they are part of the package you cannot seperate them, therefore as i said most folk with fibre will also have a phone line, whether they choose to use it is up to them and they are already paying the rental”
As I already posted when you opt for fibre you either already have the newer BT/Openreach outlet fitted or they will change it to the new outlet.
This outlet already has filters fitted in the outlet and you do not need to use a separate filter for each phone outlet in your home. The newer outlet has two separate sockets. One for phoneline and one for ADSL.
Furthermore, the fibre providing ISPs are now pledging to replace all copper line links to street boxes with fibre.
The effect is that unless the consumer specifically plugs a phone into the specific phone link in their home then their system is fibre only. Mind you I have no idea of how fast such as Vodafone are at replacing copper links to street boxes. In my, (semi-rural), case there isn’t a street box.
The copper link is to a bow up a telegraph pole in a neighbours back garden.
@Dr Jim
It’s worse than that, it has recently been shown that chlorine washing chicken does NOT remove or kill salmonella etc bacteria, it just causes them to hunker down so they are hard to detect or culture. Hence this research using other methods taking time to produce.
But it does mean that after the chlorine washing those bacteria can reactivate, they can also do so if you handle the raw chicken carelessly. Rates of foodborn bacterial infections are far higher in the US than in the EU and this sort of thing is almost certain to be part of the reason.
O/T
Re Saddleworth Moor fire surely the best way to deal with such fires is to use water bombing aircraft.
Unfortunately I believe no such aircraft exist in The UK.
However, fires such as the current one occur frequently on the Continent in particular in areas such as the French Med coastal region and they make frequent use of water bombers.
If only May’s bunch of xenophobes could forget their hatred of Johnny Foreigner for a while I am sure that the French and other EU members would make their water bombers available.
All I have seen so far is large buckets of water attached to choppers.
Holyrood parliament tv Live repeating the questions is Bbc playing about with the Internet broadcast
Muscleguy says:
28 June, 2018 at 11:56 am
@Dr Jim
It’s worse than that, it has recently been shown that chlorine washing chicken does NOT remove or kill salmonella etc bacteria….
It isn’t just the bacteria which can survive that’s the problem. Thorough cooking will hopefully take care of that from a health perspective, but it’s a much wider issue than one single handling process.
Adopting American style deregulation will mean lesser standards in food labelling. You may not know whether your chicken was processed to European hygiene standards or washed with chlorine as with US standards. With lesser standards in labelling, you may not know the source of the chicken, or beef, or pork etc, so if there is a bacterial contamination, say something like Mad Cow disease BSE, it might be extraordinarily difficult to trace the source and prevent more infected product entering the chain.
If you cannot source your product, you cannot verify the standards of animal husbandry used to raise the livestock. You won’t know if the animals were raised organically, free to roam, or raised in battery cages. How will you persuade customers your product is caught from a sustainable source?Don’t forget, the UK has already dropped standards which recognise animals as sentient beings. Westminster is content for animals to be considered as “product”.
Say too that you process food. Say for example you make pies and curries with the chicken. If you want that product to sell in Europe, you have the problem of persuading EU customers that your pies meet EU standards, while you don’t know where your own product comes from. How are you going to get around that?
Furthermore, as we’ve already seen with the US threatening that US trade means the UK accepting US deregulation, who is going to defend our current Scottish standards? We can contrive bans, like where a Saltire is evidence there is no GM product in the foodstuff, but our Supermarkets are already sticking Union flags on Scottish produce so you cannot tell. Do you think post Brexit these supermarkets will respect the Scottish Border with their supply lines?
And even suppose Scotland did reject all deregulation, what economic muscle does Scotland have to compete with aggressive US style deregulated sales methods? If we stay in Europe, we have the whole matrix of EU regulation and standards underpinned by EU laws and EU trade agreements which can and will secure much greater purchase over American pressure than anything which Scotland might achieve by itself.
The problem with chlorinated chicken isn’t the chlorine, it’s the “anything goes” food standards which allow it to reach your dinner plate. Growth steroids, antibiotics, hormones, genetically modified components… No wonder the US doesn’t like EU food labelling practices…
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. Nevermind whether these powers coming back from Europe belong with Westminster or Holyrood. The place where they belong is where they currently reside, as part of the EU’s collective interest. The US might have the clout to buy off Scotland or simply bully us into deregulation, but with Europe behind us, our standards and interests are protected. That is what the EU does.
gus1940 @ 12:01 pm
She could always do a screeching U-turn and re-commission Boris’s water cannons …
Oops, sorry! Those were intended to douse the flames of plebs demonstrating about the lack of democracy in this Disunited Kingdumb. Not wild fires oop in t’North o’ England.
As long as Ruth the Mooth is portrayed as the ‘Reasonable Face of Unionism’ I fear their polling share will hold up. What we really need is for her to come a cropper on something really important to Scotland’s voters, hopefully N Sea fishing post-Brexit.
@Ghillie and Derick fae Yell:
G – I agree with you – all yessers have an automatic friendly response to one another. It is so positive and cheerful whereas Noes seem miserable.
As for the MPs/MSPs coming over to Yes – I suppose we do want Murdo Fraser, Willie Rennie, James Kelly, Alistair Carmichael…. Er, do we?
DfY: thank you for the technical information about the Scots naval ensign – I’d forgotten.
Sarissa,
I think Ruth’s wafer thin veneer of competence has been eroded.
Also the shine is off, as her never/non existant influence has faded even before the UK leaves the EU.
How can she promise there won’t be something as disastrous as Brexit in another ten years, or that the next bunch of Tories won’t be even more incompetent?
[…] has seen the publication of a new full-scale Scottish poll, conducted by Panelbase and commissioned by Wings Over Scotland. Funnily enough, I had advance warning this was coming, because one of the poll’s […]