Down at the dataface
There’ll be some more psephology coming up on Wings next week, readers, so we thought we’d get prepared by having a delve around in the inner workings of this week’s YouGov findings and seeing if we could find a few interesting nuggets.
(1) A sizeable 45% of Scots (YouGov) say there SHOULD be another referendum in the next 10 years. The next-biggest grouping, at just 16%, was those who thought there should NEVER be another referendum. 5% of No voters backed a second vote within a decade, along with 82% of Yes voters.
This contrasts with the Ipsos MORI data, which phrased the question differently and found a much higher 66% willing to have another referendum within 10 years, but not demanding one, and 58% happy to run the vote again during the next Scottish Parliament.
(2) A surprisingly large 41% of 2010 Labour voters and 43% of Lib Dems are among those who want a second referendum within a decade. Just 12% of Tories agree, along with 72% of SNP supporters.
(3) Changes in public trust ratings since the referendum:
Nicola Sturgeon: +12
Alex Salmond: +9
Gordon Brown: +4
Ruth Davidson: -6
Johann Lamont: -8
Alistair Darling: -11
David Cameron: -14
Ed Miliband: -23
More Lib Dem voters trust Alex Salmond (+5 overall) and Nicola Sturgeon (+13) than don’t. 41% of 2010 Labour voters trust the incoming First Minister either “a lot” or “a fair amount”.
(4) A huge 68% of Scottish voters support “English votes for English laws” in the event of more devolution for Scotland. Just 18% oppose. Only 34% agree with Gordon Brown that it would result in Scottish MPs becoming “second class”, with 53% opposing the former PM’s view.
(5) Just 11% of Yes voters believe it’s likely that the Unionist parties’ promise of “extensive” further powers for the Scottish Parliament will be delivered. 67% of No voters believe that it will.
(6) Net support for the devolution of powers:
Income tax: +43 (67 support, 25 oppose)
Other taxes eg corporation, inheritance tax: +44
Working-age benefits eg Jobseekers Allowance, housing benefit: +49
Pensions: +2
The minimum wage: +27
Health & safety: +28
The gulf between pensions and all other areas of the welfare budget is striking. But as there’s little to no prospect of most of the above being devolved, public reaction to the Smith Commission’s final report will be fascinating.
(7) If the SNP and Labour were led at the 2016 Holyrood election by Nicola Sturgeon and Jim Murphy, 36% of 2010 Labour voters and 20% of 2011 Labour voters say they would vote SNP.
26% of Lib Dem voters from the 2011 Holyrood election would also switch to the SNP (if their own leader was Willie Rennie), as would a staggering 49% of those who voted Lib Dem in 2010. Only 13% of 2010 Lib Dems plan to stick with the party in 2016.
(8) Gordon Brown as leader would improve Labour’s position by just five points, putting them 13% behind the SNP rather than 18%. Rather curiously, Brown’s extra support would come almost equally from people who voted Labour, Lib Dem and Conservative in 2010 and 2011.
(9) When asked how well “the Scottish Labour Party represents the views and interests of Scotland today”, just 31% of 2010 Labour voters said it did so very well or fairly well, with almost twice as many – 59% – saying fairly badly or very badly. For 2011 Labour voters, the figures were 40% well, 50% badly.
(10) Just 3% (2010) and 4% (2011) of Labour voters believed that the Scottish party had “a lot of freedom” from UK Labour to set its own policies. No changes will have been made to Labour’s internal power structures by the time its new Scottish leader is elected.
I had a delve into the YouGov depths too and I thought there was a lot of interesting stuff in there….little of it comforting reading for the main Westminster parties.
Logic dictates a second referendum after The Vow is agreed, which is why it will never come to anything. Miliband wins, Eggs Murphy’s our next FM, saviour of the red and blue Tories, the rest is teamGB history burying.
Its up to you red Tories/Project Fear/BBC in Scotland, again.
And Nicola has only just started her speaking tour and the SNP conference is still to come. I hope they get live streaming ready because we can’t expect any decent coverage from the MSM.
Surely point 8 is now moot given that the great Gordy has indicated he will not be standing for Branch Secretary (or whatever the title is).
Point 7 is a real killer for poor old Murph – damned if he does and damned if he don’t…
Anyone else notice the lack of relevence and importance the insignificant Murphy in (3)?
Mind you his stalwart leadership desireability becomes evident in (7)
Gordon Brown has made a true statement of the current situation. Well, there’s always a first time. Scottish MPs ARE second class, but don’t seem to care, so long as the Scottish ProudScotBut numpties continue to re-elect them. Why would they; there’s always the House of Rewards to accommodate their fat butts.
Surely with over 83k members they will have to give more coverage to SNP conference.
” Just 11% of Yes voters believe it’s likely that the Unionist parties’ promise of “extensive” further powers for the Scottish Parliament will be delivered. 67% of No voters believe that it will.”
Thing is, a lot of Tory No voters don’t want more powers. Some even want the SP dissolved. That could explain the 33% Nos who expect nothing. However, I am surprised two thirds of Nos still trust the Three Amigos to deliver. Still being duped, then? I trust the average Yes voter’s assessment more!
Interestingly, on Marr this morning I do believe I heard Alec Salmond suggest that failure to deliver ‘the Vow’ will be treated as a constitutional crisis. That, I think, is a shift to a more aggressive position by the SNP. Good! I agree.
Facts are chiels that winnae ding.
And with that, m’lud, we rest our case.
🙂
Question for next poll – % of voters who would change their vote as of now. Both YES and NO ie beleive they made a mistake or wer lied to by one side or the other.
annie says:
Surely with over 83k members they will have to give more coverage to SNP conference.
Now try repeating that without laughing this time.
Eggbox went, I see, into standard SLab mode and was unable to talk about Labour but simply defaulted to talking about the SNP. He represents no change then 🙂
As a ” I have never voted Labour ” Scot , I can’t believe GB would lift SLab support by 5%
I say this bearing in mind his track record @ WM , Taxing Pensions etc added to this his blatant lies about ” Near Federalism ” of more powers !
Converse of course shows how low the Scottish Labour Party really is with the voting Public .
Still amazed at how the MSM , in particular the EBC , fail to give a balanced view to the people of Scotland on the JM/NF & SB leadership contest .
Makes me wonder if I have been so badly informed all my life , I’ll soon be 60 FFS !
Amazing how Brown has still got respect in Scotland after his your pensions are doomed if you get independance tour, one month after the referendum the cat was let out the bag their is NO monies in the rUK pension fund, theirs a good picture on the Icke site caption reads The New Scots, the picture a field full of sheep. Go back to sleep Scotland your masters are running things into the ground for you. 😉
Did anyone see Jim Murphy on the Marr show this morning ?????
He wrote off the egg incident as “Just a dry cleaning bill” (despite making it look like a murder attempt at the time )
Well Jim …..I can see why it would not bother you as it will nae doot appear on your expenses….
Incidentally the majority of working class people (whom you are supposed to represent) wash their shirts because they cannot afford dry cleaning bills
Well played Jim……well played.
Yeah, I wondered about that. Shirts get washed in normal households, don’t they? There’s nothing special about egg that you’d need to take it to the cleaners.
Another thing that shows how out of touch he is.
Stop calling ProudScots numpties.
They are seriously political thinkers.
link to rogerproudscotbutt.wordpress.com
“There’ll be some more psephology coming up on Wings next week”. Does this mean that Wings will be commissioning a poll or just analysing other polls?
Yes, Tackety Beets, join our sad club. I was brought up listening to and watching the BBC, as you probably were, in the sad expectation that they were delivering unbiased opinion and realistic interpretations of what was actually happening in the world. I have cancelled my BBC licence a long time since.
The sad thing is, we have no unbiased and unaligned media in Scotland to transfer our attention to.
Re Pam McMahon
Who are you calling Proudscots Numpties?
They are serious political thinkers.
link to tinyurl.com
5) Just 11% of Yes voters believe it’s likely that the Unionist parties’ promise of “extensive” further powers for the Scottish Parliament will be delivered. 67% of No voters believe that it will.
That implies one third of No voters have already decided there will be no extensive powers or have not yet made up their mind and thus convincible to change to Yes?
One third of 55% is 18% of those who voted, or about 600,000 voters?
Murphy was spotted in Candleriggs.
And so, add Merchant City to the list.
its not the egg stain on his shirt that needed dry cleaning it’s the shit on his sleeve after he wiped his mouth
Gordon Brown’s trust rating is up? Seriously??? ‘kin hell, I despair.
giving goose just looked at your pro onionist link and Murphy is a coward that ran away from South Africa to escape serving in there armed forces but found the courage to send our kids to die so anyone who votes for this shit talker is a numpty
What gets mae is this English Votes for English Laws malarky.
Surely changing laws for England has repercussions for the other three countries.
Each of those three countries should have a say in these matters Y/N?
Mae? Moi.
I suspect the only way Gordies ratings could go was up. They’ll come down again very shortly when Smith delivers, or rather, doesn’t.
@Bobby 3.04pm
I think you need to look more carefully at that link. You may have missed a bit of piss-taking there. Unless you are being sarcastic of course, in which case I take it all back.
EVEL will cause a constitutional crisis I believe as it breaks the Treaty of Union.
Now I know in the past the ToU has been broken and nothing was done about it – this time we have the SNP and a lawyer in Nicola – so it could be used to our advantage.
Re EVEL, surely there are areas where MP’s from scotland etc need to vote where it will have a direct influence on the Barnett Formula or am I missing something
The Lib Dems are hopefully toast at the next GE. Like Labour in the referendum, they’ve played the role of the Tories’ useful idiots to perfection. It never ceases to amaze me how anyone ever took a mediocre lightweight like Clegg seriously. In that respect, he’s a bit like Milliband : a turkey who thinks he’s an eagle.
Gordon Brown’s rating is up.
What. The. FUCK?
Who are these people?
I did this UGov Poll, so pleased to add to Labour Party’s misfortunes. The question about EVEL stressed voting on things soley affecting England.
I just watched that Slabber branch broadcast
with Skeletor on the Andrew Marr Show (iplayer).
And the message seems to be –
Don’t worry, the BBC and Jim’ll Fix It.
link to pbs.twimg.com
So I/3 of No voters don’t believe the ‘VOW’ will deliver. Over 660,000 votes. Question is: how many of them want any powers anyway? We know that 16% never want another referendum, which is almost 30% of the ‘NO’ vote..so is this the same constituency and does it matter?
More promising is the other naïve 67% ‘NO’s who believe powers are on their way. This group must be provider for the tipping point. Disallusioned ‘No’s who feel betrayed, are the best recruits to the hard core 45% YES vote.
Meanwhile Jim Eggman Uriah Heap Murphy wants differential welfare rates in different areas of Scotland ‘to encourage people into ‘meaningful long term work’. Naturally these devolved powers will bypass Holyrood and be run by corrupt Labour councils.
The bankruptcy of this sham-man’s morality and zero political understanding is revealed for the joke it really is. ‘a local devolved welfare state’….i.e. a rerun of old Monklands Council updated and based on Matheson’s fiefdom that is Glasgow Council today.
Maybe it’s scummy Jim that needs re-educated on what ‘meaningful long term work’ actually is. For a man who has never actually worked or achieved anything in his life except fear and loathing in others, it reveals this narcissistic chancer for the arrogant and cold blooded Blairite tory that he really is.
Very interesting polls indeed, it proves that all theYes movement must stay focused.
As regards the Gordon Brown cult, (I said cult!) I was brought up in a staunchly Labour household, my parents were Labour activists and my late uncle even sat on the Labour NEC in the 80s, so I have an insight into the workings of the SLab mind.
I can tell you that my family still hold him in high regard and do genuinely believe all the “saviour of the union” drivel. The unwavering devotion to Labour is deeply entrenched in thousands of people in Scotland and will take along time to change.
The desire for independence is moving ever upwards, so I take comfort in knowing that much of the Daily Record/SLab generation have begat blasphemous, ungrateful Nats such as me!
Despite what many Wingers and others think of Gordon Brown there is still a sizeable chunk of the Scottish electorate that hold him in very high regard as was demonstrated by the 3% increase in share of the vote Labour achieved in 2010 General Election in Scotland.
Much work and persuasion is required to educate this segment I Scottish society – calling them numpties and other insults perhaps nt the best way to approach it, similar for No Voters that will be needed to deliver a future Yes vote.
Onwards!
@galamcennalath 1.45
I didn’t see the Marr interview, but read a few reports, and Salmond’s on record as saying that “The EU referendum will trigger a “constitutional crisis”, he warned, if Scotland votes to remain in the bloc while England votes to leave. “There is nothing as foolish as to drag Scotland out of the European Union against the wishes of its people.”
So I’m wondering if this is what you heard, rather than the Vow delivery bringing on a constitutional crisis?
Cheers
It’s very hard to read anything into the fact that people voted Labour in 2010. For instance – I did it, to vote tactically.
Mind you, I made my mind up during the referendum campaign that I’d never vote for a unionist party again. Even if the fallout for Yessers had been disastrous, I wouldn’t have done it – now that things are looking so promising for GE2015, I’m champing at the bit to go out and work for a Yes candidate!
link to dailymail.co.uk
Pro-Skeletor article in the Daily Mule. Brownites and Blairites closing ranks?
Just watched a recording of Politics Scotland today. That Gordon Brewer is insufferable. But what really annoyed me more was the female blogger/journ Katy something or other. She gave me the pip.
@Skintybroko says: 2 November, 2014 at 3:35 pm:
“Re EVEL, surely there are areas where MP’s from Scotland etc. need to vote where it will have a direct influence on the Barnett Formula or am I missing something”
In point of fact there are NO instances where England only applies. For as long as there is no properly elected parliament of the country of England then, those members of the United Kingdom Parliament from English constituencies are, unelected as such, de facto parliament of England parliamentarians. As there are 533 of them and only 117 other UK members then T%he UK parliament has become the de facto parliament of England and the two are indistinguishable one to the other.
In effect those 533 English members are the Parliament of England and they legislate for England and just tag wee bits on the End of English bills to accommodate Scotland, Wales & N.I. Furthermore, they fund England directly as the UK with UK funding. Then they decide the level of the three underling countries block grants and proceed to further regulate them by use of Barnett Consequentials.
It is really the Parliament of England, as the masters, dictating to the others. We have all become underlings to England.
The last time I checked on theyworkforyou website GORDON BROWN had the worst attendance record of all the Scottish MP’s . It currently stands at 12.95% over the past year !!!
Agreed entirely, Mr Peffers. I think people – myself included – agree with the principle of EVEL, but the fact remains that there is no “English” parliament as distinct from the UK parliament, and with the absence of an English block grant, all finances & regulations regarding EVEL will be pooled from UK finances.
EVEL would, in practice, mean that revenue from Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would be used on “English-only” issues without any representation. As was said before on this site, it’s taxation without representation.
Simply too much figures for me. As a former engineer, I’ve never been in cahoots with maths.
😛
Oops… Changed my wording and forgot to correct: ‘too MANY figures …’
“Just 12% of Tories”
I wouldn’t have thought that would be enough to make a statistically valid sample!
The above picture reminds me of when at 15 years of age, I left school and gained employment with the NCB. I went to work at Preston Grange pit in my home town of Preston Pans, East Lothian.
I was sent for underground training to Lingerwood Training Centre at Danderhall. We were taken down the Lady Victoria pit and right in to the coal face. Men were cutting coal using machines in a seam which if memory serves me correctly, was about 3′ high.
Needless to say, for a lad of 15 years, it was an eye opener. Men, including three of my uncles, did this for a living. They were determined it wasn’t going to be the way I earned my living, and that was to be the case.
I have always been grateful to them and, to this day, and as a man of 73 years of age, have never lost my respect for them, and men like them, who earned a hard working living in the bowels of the earth.
It’s men like these that the Labour Party have failed.