Carney speech: definitive analysis
Posted on
January 29, 2014 by
Rev. Stuart Campbell
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A tall tale
Wee Books
Video
Probably a robbery
Transphobia
Just what I thought.
Concise yet comprehensive as per usual Stu.
Watch the unionistas spin this beyond all recognition.
Yup, pretty much. 🙂
I note that Carney said that the economic recovery had started in Scotland and spread to the rest of the UK.
That, I suggest must be virtually without precedent, and to my thinking is down to Swinney having focused on infrastructure projects in advance of the coaltion
That’ll be the technicalities out of the way then 🙂
Works now. Sorry to have wasted space.
I am watching the Press conference on the BBC News Channel where they keep bringing up strap lines. One of them from Alistair Darling, he of the instant quote. This time it is “Salmond’s pound claims demolished”.
Whit? Have I been listening to the same speech?
Darling is losing the plot.
And if there’s no green bottles…..
Herald headline: “Carney: sharing sterling between iScotland and rUK could lead to Eurozone-style crises”.
Not just one crisis, but several. Better batten down the hatches, we’re in for a lot of wind over the next few hours.
The need for “careful consideration” will rule out Alistair Darling and Gordon Brown from any further involvement.
They are neither careful and/or financially considerate.
I have no problem with “careful consideration” in planning for the Sterling zone. That is what financial people should do. The work can start now.
Westminster saves the Sterling from collapse by destroying the welfare state to slightly reduce the spiraling debt.
Triumphantly, we can continue our involvement in a currency that is such a shambles, the countries people are brought to ruin by the elite.
I am so happy.
can anyone else visualise johann lamont analysing mr carneys points with a fine tooth comb?
I believe Carney is saying a currency union is completely do-able but it means negotiations and paperwork.
The media will find only the negatives as I see they had already started before he finished his technical analysis.
I put it on the other thread but belongs here.
He did mention a per capita share of oil revenues though, funniest joke of 2014 so far.
O gawd it’s Prof Curtice on BBC2 now. Is he a financier and banking expert as well?
Rev, if you have time can you delete the mess I made on the last thread please. My brain isn’t working very well today.
“…Scots have shaped the modern world through their contributions to culture…” – Mark Carney
How come Mark Carney, a Canadian, accepts that Scotland has its own distinct culture but George Robertson, a Scots, tells us we have no culture?
@david
I believe it’s Labour’s policy to use a fine toothbrush for such analytical purposes.
And now we have the Unionists arguing against such a currency union…..therein highlighting our own immediate inadequancies….
Brings it full circle.
What I take from what Carney has said is that a currency union is not a problem unless Westminster wants to make it one.
The unionist media does seem desperate to get him to throw them a bone, but he seems to be too clever.
Carney gave a non political, measured & balanced perspective of currency unions by pointing out the risks & rewards using examples from around the world.
In essence, he said that a currency union would work so long as there were sufficient checks & balances put in place that had been agreed by both the Scottish & UK Government.
So unless one side or the other wouldn’t or couldn’t reach any of those fundamental agreements, a currency union seems inevitable.
Hence, the decision to form a currency union will inevitably be driven by economics. And in light of the need for the reduction in UK sovereign debt, it just seems inconceivable that the UK would chop its own arm off out of spite.
Radio 4 this morning was obviously doing its union thing when it anouncef that Iain Gray of North Britain Labour one of many former leaders fame was to be on the news.
I wad delighted. He won, t let us down, I thought.
And he didn, t. Iain, there is a reason that you are a former leader.
Whilst im on the subject of good old R4 did anyone tune into the Does Scandanavia want Scitland show?
It consisted mainly of Scandanavians saying they would welcome Scots and was then surmised by a unionist lady who had deduced that saying they wanted Scotland did in fact translate as better of in the union.
In addition, everytime Scottish independence is mentioned they whack on an accordian backed tune or some bagpipes usually with Andy Stuart overlaid.
Donald whaurs yer impartialitaeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeerr…
Basically,it can be done,but,as in other and all arrangements,there has to be a framework adhered to.If the people decide to vote yes,we’ll dae it,nae bother,just agree the system and keep to the contract.We’ll dae it.
Saw Skys Joey Jones analysis of the speech. He was raving that Alistair Darling and the Better together campaign are delighted and it is a disaster for the Yes campaign.
Clearly he must have been watching Tom and Jerry at the time.
Aye, sterling currency union crisis resolved by pragmatic canuck….who would have thought it?
Don’t imagine Mr Carney will be invited to the Better Together Christmas party !!!
And I see the Kiwis are looking at their flag again; perhaps realising that when the saltire goes it might be a good time to make a complete change.
It strikes me, that Darling and the rest of his ridiculous unionista cabal, wrote their comments regarding the speech, PRIOR to the speech.
The Governor of the Bank of England repeatedly made it clear, he was not involved in arguing or presenting for OR against a currency union, rather he was setting out the ways in which such currency unions can work, and the pitfalls or benefits of not adopting them, in purely economic terms.
The REV’s analysis above, is bang on the money. Whatever Holyrood and Westminster agrees, then the Bank of England will make it happen.
It really seems that especially SKY news, see this as some sort of ‘game changer’ when in reality it is nothing of the kind. The fact is, there is little in anything the Governor said, which can be construed as for or against a currency union. What it did make clear however, is that if agreed, a currency union could happen, and could be made successful. THAT is the big message today.
What an amazing career windfall for Mark Carney. How often do top bankers land the opportunity to oversee and execute a brand new currency union? And one with such a well-established currency too. He must be very pleased with his move across the water.
I think we have been extremely lucky to have a neutral individual in this role right now. It seems he is quite confident he can make it all work, the Scottish Government is all ready to do it, that just leaves the UK government to get on board too and we’re sailing 🙂
Where there’s a will, there’s a way!
Seems fair to me
As a Canadian should it not be “Whatever you guys arrange between yourselves, we’ll make it work, ay?”
Aye, Darling and co were tweeting this stuff last night.
I thought the same as Gavin Alexander that Carney will be delighted with this development.
In due course he will look back through his resume & be rather delighted that he was the key architect of making a currency union work between two sovereign countries.
The only thing that can prevent a currency union/Sterling Zone are the politicians. Their Plan A is no currency union, their Plan B (upon a YES win) is most certainly a currency union.
The London treasury, today, is still saying a currency union is ‘unlikely’. Surely to dispel uncertainty, the UK treasury should now categorically say a currency union is impossible.
Of course, we all know that the reason George Osborne and his Liberal Tory goafer Danny Alexander never say NO to a currency union, is because they know it WILL have to happen, otherwise the currency markets would crucify them.
Maybe if Westminster tried being honest with Scots, we wouldn’t be wanting independence, but no, they carry on with their patronising lying day in, day out, as they have done for over three hundred years. We cannot be rid of them soon enough.
This appears to be episode in the same vein as the No campaign’s response to the White Paper, where they laughably tried to pretend that they had read it all within about 50 minutes of its release. I see on Cif in the Guardian that loads of British nationalists are claiming that this is not independence! They seriously seem to think that they should be the ones who should define it, and not the SG! WTF is that all about? The MSM are going to get in an awful state attempting to spin this to suit the No campaign. I do not know who is more absurd, the MSM or Captain Darling and company?!
Business as usual.
James Naughtie, BBC: “What you said seems to indicate that you don’t believe that would be posssible if a currency union were to work. Can you just take on that question of full fiscal flexibility?”
Mark Carney: “I’m specifically not commenting on where you directed me.”
Faisal Islam, Channel 4 News: “Table 4 in the back of your speech compares the Scottish banking’s size to randomly chosen countries: Cyprus, Spain, Iceland and Ireland. Is it the case that you feel that an independent Scotland would be too small to host giant universal banks like RBS?”
Mark Carney: “That’s clearly not what we said.”
Richard Edgar, ITV News: “Governor, regardless of whether you think a currency union is a good or a bad idea, your speech seemed to indicate agreeing one would be very difficult. Can you briefly explain why?”
Mark Carney: “I didn’t mean to suggest that.”
Alistair Darling already saying this is a fatal blow to independence, Mr Darling’s household must be a barrel of laughs, with him around.
I knew when Mark Carney turned up it was going to be interesting. This is a man with no great vested interest in preserving the Union. He’s a Canadian, after all, and they binned the connection to Westminster a long time ago themselves. He will, and once I get a chance to read the transcript (not just now, the boss might not appreciate it!) I expect this to be confirmed, offer a pragmatic, sensible, bone dry position which will not have the same scarey elements that the likes of Alastair ‘You’re doomed’ Darling but will also not pull punches. Unvarnished opinion; I like the guy, he’s very refreshing after the constant flow of Unionist politicians telling us it’s all impossible. I also expect he will not be quite so dismissive of a currency union, warnings about stability not withstanding, as the UK Government are… at the moment. And I say at the moment because I know as well as everyone else what they say now, or on any day up to and including 18/09/2014, will count for nothing by the time the result is known on the 19th. We vote yes and everything that has gone before is history in a very, very real sense.
I’ve just read the BBC News website’s report on the speech and for the life of me I cannot understand what speech Darling was listening to. It didn’t seem to be the one the BBC were reporting on, at least.
Darling gets more loathsome as time goes on
Think your analysis hits the nail very firmly on the head Rev Stu.
@Andy B
How many times have we been told of these apparently authoritative “fatal blows to independence” claims from the MSM/No campaign? It must have reached into the hundreds by now. Darling was telling us this at the time of the launch of the White Paper. Nuff said…
In the end it took a Canadian less than an hour to demolish all these months of unionist bluster.
The theme that the rabid BBC has latched onto this afternoon, is that of “ceding some sovereignty” as if that were sufficient argument to make the idea of independence pointless.
We already cede sovereignty because we get to suffer policies that are designed to satisfy the south east of England.
And if ceding some sovereignty as a price to pay for a currency union is so bad, perhaps the BBC, flipper Darling or even George Osborne can explain why the Pound Sterling is worth 14% less Euros now that it was ten years ago?
It seems like the British unionist apparatus (BBC, London, SKY etc..) was poised today to try to demolish the idea of a currency union, yet the speech as delivered simply did not back up their pre-scripted narrative. All those London Journalists up in Edinburgh, only to be disappointed. Time and again, they underestimate the First Minister, who has spent his entire life planning for this moment. You’d think they would learn.
So, I say, SKY, BBC, Better together, Labour, Tories and Libdems, today you have scored a big fat FAIL.
Better together and their BBC stooges really must try much, much harder. I’d laugh if it wasn’t so freaking pathetic.
Unusually balanced and non-hysterical headline on BBC site:
“Scots pound plan needs thought – Carney”
Seems fair enough to me.
Hotrod,
Sounds like the BBC stating the bleeding obvious.
BBC just posted link to YES Scotland on their web site article. Good old auntie!.
Just watched that git Norman Smith on BBC News gleefully repeat Westminster’s ludicrous spin on Carney’s speech as if it were gospel – no other interpretation possible because “ministers have spoken”. As I tweeted – Pravda is at work again.
Robert Louis:
I agree. Which is a big improvement from their usual approach. 🙂
hI YA,noo kin anybody answer me this, W. T. F. is that
ATOS examination awe aboot,a wunnin, a key board,a P C
screen, an a bunch of Questions. B T W.it wiz on the ground flair, ( nae windies ) oony how the wummin wiz nice
N Irish.She only type,s oota report, fur the adudicator,nae wunner this country,s fucked,wie awe the waste of money to Private company,s. anybody know when I canexspect a verdict.
I have known all along that Mark Carney would not make any statements that could be seen to favour either side and I wasn’t disappointed.
He is, above all else a highly trained economics technocrat.
He see’s his job in the debate as the facilitator of what ever Westminster and Holyrood agree to.
Mark Carney today set out the bones (very dry bones at that) of what to expect and what is expected from both Westminster and Holyrood.
His comment about national sovereignty was not aimed entirely at Scotland, it was meant for both England and Scotland, if they both agree to share a common currency!
Like with any proposition, such as tendering for a contract, you first outline the cans and cant do’s, of what is expected of the parties concerned and what they should expect.
He most definitely avoided like a tightrope walker, balancing on the high wire, to provide any tacit support for either side. He is the ‘go to man’ pure and simple. He will lay out a plan for both Westminster and Holyrood to follow, for them to agree and for Mark Carney to manage (which is basically what he stated)
Westminster and the unionists do not have any wriggle room to come out with any comment what so ever that they ‘cannot agree to a currency union, because it a) will not work or b) the Bank of England will not allow’ excuse.
Mark carney has provided the blue print
next stage is for Scotland to Vote Yes
then the next stage is for both Westminster and Holyrood to gather around the blue print set out before them and agree
On the question of the Unionist yaboo tactic of saying this is not independence, the answer surely is that any subsequent decision on currency is entirely within the ambit of the Scottish people.
Rev, it could be funny/infuriating to see a full list of the Q:A session after the press conference….one such ditty:
You said agreeing a currency union will be very difficult. Explain why?” Carney: “No. No I didn’t.”
Someone should ask Mr Carney to comment on Alistair Darling’s reaction to his speech.
In case any waverers were worried that an independent Scottish government might one day be tempted to fiscal irresponsibility, Mr Carney’s speech will reassure them that they have nothing to fear.
They are trying again to worry us, in terms of “would have to lose some sovereignty ” This is getting spun across the Media, BT are gloating.
If they are “Scottish” banks as AD says, then surely it will be RUK that has “no credit rating?”
“We would face higher cost of living with higher mortgage repayments, higher credit card and store card bills and more costly car loans because Scotland would have no credit rating.”
I was listening to Mark Carney’s speech on BBC radio Scotland, and after a huge build up to it they cut it off and put a play on about some lonely auld wifie working for Yes Scotland! Could nae believe it, so now we will get an edited unionist version,
“We already cede sovereignty because we get to suffer policies that are designed to satisfy the south east of England.”
It’s worse than that: we don’t currently have any sovereignty to cede. Even devolved issues are the “gift” of Westminster. They can choose to take them back whenever they want; it’s not in our powers to decide whether or not to cede them.
Independence brings sovereignty to Scotland. We can then decide, like any normal country, whether it’s in our interests to cede some for, say, a currency union.
What I take from what Carney has said is that a currency union is not a problem unless Westminster wants to make it one.
Exactly. And whatever spin Better Together and the media put on it, that’s the way business and the markets will read it. The ball is very much in Westminster’s court now. They can come out and conclusively rule out a currency union right now, or they can keep up the uncertainty line using words like “unlikely”. But if that begins to hit Sterling and the markets, that’s a risk they’ll be taking and it will be laid firmly at their door.
So what unionists are saying is that sharing the £ is more like devo max rather than that ‘scary’ full independence?
Well that should settle some soft no / DK / devo maxer nerves about voting Yes.
From what I can gather, Carney is being cautious, but by no mean negative. Sure there will some technical aspects to be reviewed (Scots having to give up some sovereignty, but we knew that anyway), but he is saying in a certain language and tone, that a Currency Union is possible.
He is leaving it to Westminster and Edinburgh to agree on a Union. If they both say Yes (which I dare Westminster not to say Yes), then the BoE will move mountain, sky and earth to make it happen.
But lets make one fact very clear here. Carney CAME to Edinburgh to discuss monetary union. He was DELIGHTED to be here. He WANTED to be here. He WANTED to speak to the Scottish Government.
It wasn’t Salmond being told to come down to London to be told ‘No!’ in no uncertain terms. It was the other way about. I take a lot of big positives from that.
So for Darling, SKY, the BBC to come out with complete negativity once again is utterly laughable.
I can’t wait for the hysterical pro-union headlines from the hootsman, daily fail and telegripe tomorrow.
When will they just understand that Scotland CAN use the pound REGARDLESS of what rUK wants? Come 19 September the reality will set in and it will all be negotiated.
Little englanders I imagine will be LIVID that those kilt-waring jocks are allowed to use THEIR pound!
Just ask them a straight question. ” are you going to put obstacles for a currency Union, or not. ”
Let’s see if they answer yes or not! I know what I would bet on.
Mark Carney, “Any arrangement to retain Sterling in an independent Scotland, would need to be negotiated between Westminster and Holyrood, and the Bank of England would simply implement whatever monetary arrangements are put in place.”
That sums up the Bank of England’s response to a currency union.
O/T Apologies
Cameron – “If Scotland votes YES for independence, Scotland will get independence. We will have to sort out all the issues around that.” – BBC Radio 2
seeding some sovereignty sounds like quite alluring, I’ll go for some of that please.
Darling’s pal to the rescue.
Robert @Peston
Governor Carney lobs an enormous stink bomb into the middle of Edinburgh link to bbc.co.uk
O/T
That guy on The One Show last night (Justin Rowlatt) who said Alex Salmond was leader of the Yes campaign…
I don’t think he should be going on Mastermind any time soon with Alex Salmond as his chosen subject.
link to scotsman.com
Professor Jim Gallagher, He is truly prepared to sell his country and countrymen down the river by being totally biased in favour of his colonial masters regardless of the facts. Looking for directions to the trough IMO, AND A GONG.
G Campbell – comments allowed 🙂
Scotland should have its own currency to be truly independent and not be tied into any fiscal or institutional union with rUK – ceding some sovereignty is not what we’re voting for.
Carney made the same point that Jim Gallagher has made – fiscal union and political union need to go together.
Of course a currency union (or merely piggybacking on sterling for a while) might be good temporary measures, but there are solid – non-partisan – reasons for thinking that in the long term, tax and monetary policy need to be run by and for the same people.
The people of this country need to march NOW against the media bias because the blatant lies that the unionists are getting away with is stifling debate, switching people off and is anti democratic. We need to rise up NOW before it is too late.
The unionists are getting away with, under our very eyes, blatant lies in every newspaper, tv headline, and in every interview and debate. They are skewing every level of positive debate into a lie. They are deliberately misinforming the general public and causing uncertainty and spreading fear amongst people.
They must not be allowed to get away with it. There must be direct action in the coming months. Waiting until 18 September may not be enough.
“The people of this country need to march NOW against the media bias”
They won’t, though, and 25 folk standing in the drizzle outside Pacific Quay will achieve nothing other than looking a bit mad. Win the vote.
From “it will never happen” to “unlikely to happen” then “negotiations will be tough” with eventually “lets do this quickly”.
Unionists are now conceding a lot of ground.
You’re all a bunch of useless idiots. Fuck independence.
Feels like its devo max as in maximum devo realistically possible, which makes for another Westminster mess that could have been avoided.
Major,
that will be ‘eh!’ in canuck speak dae ye no ken, eh!
Ach, give the BT mob a break – Carney was their great white hope, but he did not deliver. We now have to sympathise with the fact that Darling and his BBC reporters/ supporters had all the scripts ready. They had no option but to deliver their anti-Scottish, “nay shared currency” narrative, in spite of the fact that it sounds so ridiculous now.
Salmond and Carney are way too clever for them.
Speaking of the BBC,In the Daily Record today, tucked away in a corner,in small print is the heading, £98 million BBC fiasco. BBC bosses wasted £98.4 million pounds of licence fee-payers cash on a failed IT system, the system was so flawed it has to be axed, said the National Audits Office.
For those who pay the licence fee that’s a hell of a lot of cash wasted by the bias BBC, combine this with golden pay-offs for the likes of Mr Entwhistle and others, and you can see the BBC don’t really answer to anyone but themselves, kind of like the Daily Mail.
“So what unionists are saying is that sharing the £ is more like devo max rather than that ‘scary’ full independence?
Exactly. I can’t say I get that line of argument, given what the polls say.
Carney CAME to Edinburgh to discuss monetary union. He was DELIGHTED to be here. He WANTED to be here. He WANTED to speak to the Scottish Government.
Yup. I also take that as quite significant in terms of perception. It wasn’t Scotland going down to beg a hearing with the BoE but the BoE coming to discuss the pros and cons of a currency union after independence – none of which, btw, would be a surprise if you’d read the fiscal commission reports underpinning the White Paper.
To me this is the Mark Carney speech in precis.
It’s up to yourselves. Whatever happens it will work out because it will.
Radio Forth News just gave very positive report. No spin, no negativity, just Holyrood and Westminster would negotiate deal and BoE will implement it.
Salmond and Carney are way too clever for them.
The way the appear to be being set up time and again you have to question whether they’re really stupid or actively being fed rubbish.
Think right back way back: a referendum would never be allowed – Edinburgh agreement.
The SNP won’t decide the question – they did.
Well the Electoral Commission will slap them down on it, and how dare the SNP not agree before they report to comply! Complete with 28,000 signature petition demanding they comply – EC comes out with a very fair and balanced report and a minor tweak to the question, all of which the SNP welcomes.
All these barriers put up and screeched about day after day in the media are gradually being pulled down. Is it any co-incidence it’s mainly Labour politicians screeching about them, while the government is Tory?
Jane Fairnie
I personally don’t see the currency union with the Bank of England as a permanent feature. Its a stepping stone
Currently we have money markets that are ‘more jumpy than a long tailed cat in a room full of rocking chairs’
What those in Westminster publically don’t admit to is the fact that the departure of Scotland without retention of sterling would put a big strain on Sterling.
Consider that independence would mean the removal of 10% of the UK’s GDP. England would be left with a much reduced GDP, but still have a sizable population (60 mil). While Scotland with a population of 5 million and a healthy GDP, will be up to its neck in Oil revenues and a very healthy balance of trade, due to the oil and whisky.
Remember Whisky exports are running at about £ 90 Billion a year.
There has been much play about ‘England being the largest trading partner of Scotland’ Actually its not. But lets say it was, so that means Scotland becomes a real net exporter and England just increased its net imports. Not healthy for England.
The reality is Scotland does export outside the UK as such more than what it sells inside the UK. Its currently hidden within the HMRC stats.
My guess is Scotland will become a very attractive place to invest in. England, like it or not will need to accept a currency union in the short term, in order to keep the markets stable. England will also come to a cross roads where it has to decide what its spending priorities are as it looses all the Oil and Gas revenues for Scottish waters.
The SG were always going to devise an independence plan that looked, and is as close to Devo Max as possible (with the added bonus that we get control over almost all taxes, North Sea Oil revenue, get rid of WMD from the Clyde and international representation). This was the whole point of the second question manoeuvre. Once the Unionists had stupidly publically rejected it, then only the finished touch of the White Paper was required. In other words, the No campaign is strategically fucked; no matter their/MSM’s buddies desperate scrambling to get the most ludicrous propaganda and spin out. Salmond will no doubt be laughing in Bute House at the MSM’s descent into Pravada style reporting.
@ScotsCanuck
Thanks, I knew it should be there but ah wasnae sure how tae spell it, eh!
BBC Scotland radio.
Macwhirter:
Carney ‘may not want independence’ but Carney stated the obvious the two governments must work it out between themselves. There is a risk to rUK if agreement not reached
Bill Jamieson.
A political agreement between two governments can be done, shared currency is possible. Economic independence in a modern world not possible.
Brian Taylor still to come later. (once he gets script from Darling)
Mark Carney …arrangements for a currency union in the event of independence would be a matter for the Scottish and UK parliaments.
John Swinney An independent Scotland will control 100% of our own revenues, compared to the 7% of our tax base we are currently responsible for under devolution.
A shared currency will mean an independent Scotland having control of tax policy, employment policy, social security policy, oil and gas revenues, immigration policy and a range of other levers to suit our own circumstances, helping to grow our economy, create jobs and secure a more prosperous and fairer society
Alistair Darling This is a detailed speech but make no mistake, the governor’s judgement on currency unions is devastating for Alex Salmond’s currency plans.
I honestly think Alistair Darling has lost the plot. With all due respect to Alistair Darling, I think he really needs to take a break and give himself some time to reflect on the kind of nonsense he has been manufacturing over these past months.
Cue the 6 o’clock headlines “Carney warns”…”Ceding sovereignty” blah blah…There are 17 independent countries in Europe who believe that either they are not ceding any sovereignty at all or if they are then they obviously think that the benefits of being in a currency union outweigh the costs..
ronnie,
Glad you survived.
‘wie awe the waste of money to Private company,s.’
I noticed today when I bought my road tax that the payment went through ATOS. Another load of our data to add to the hoard that they are being paid to collect with our money.
Ten scare stories, standing on the wall
Ten scare stories, standing on the wall,
and if one scare story, should accidentally fall…
etc
etc
etc
How many are we down to now?
“So what unionists are saying is that sharing the £ is more like devo max rather than that ‘scary’ full independence?”
There’s a major difference which is that we’d have no formal representation in UK decision-making. Devo max would involve most areas being devolved to the Scottish level, but other areas being kept at the UK level (where we’d still have MPs in Westminster to represent Scottish constituencies). Independence in this line of thinking involves the same thing, but with no representation at the UK level.
I think it’s pretty clear that type of arrangement wouldn’t be particularly beneficial on a practical level, and would raise serious questions about our democracy. In many ways having a new independent currency raises less issues than the currency union idea. See for instance Simon Wren-Lewis (Professor at Oxford) on this issue: link to mainlymacro.blogspot.co.uk
Just been on the Beeb. The comments on their website range form the ill informed to the vindictive with the added joy of English commenters pretending to be outraged Scots. It’s like stepping back years in the debate.
The ENGLISH BROADCASTING CORPORATION going into raptures over the belittling of my country by lies and innuendo. The excitement of the presenters is unbelievable. Why do all these foreign people hate Scotland?
The ENGLISH LABOUR PARTY (SCOTTISH BRANCH) will be over the moon. Why does the Labour Party in Scotland hate Scotland?
Like any big change in any bodies life it needs consideration, negotiation, agreement and careful thought. That sounds like busyness as usual to me.
That sends EBC & LPIS INTO RAPTURES!
nooas a person that hiz tae tak hiz socks aff, tae coont tae 21 ( sos new socks removed the fluff )fluctual adjustment back tae 20.anyway early in that report ( dependant on the divvy up of the oil )geographical dispersment of OIL ,is that Westminster making claim to the 6.0000 miles that Tony Blair stole from Scotland.
Alex Salmond will get hung drawn quartered,if he conceeds any geographical boundry,s tae Westminster. Wriggle Wiggle
Wiggle went the WEE Wigglie WORM. TO WEE TO POOR TO STUPID noo that hurt, an ah dont forget pain say easely.
Thanks REV, made ma day
They dont hate Scotland. They think they own it, they truly believe they’ve bought and paid for Scotland but its being taken from them by cybernats, Alex Salmond etc
Nice YES newspaper arrived today.
Wonder what Carney makes of the Barnett Formula and the taking of Scotland’s resources and handing Scotland the debt? It must be illegal under International Law.
@Handandshrimp.
Sorry for the late reply I am at my work, on a tea break if the DM is watching.
It was the comment you said about the “brave” (DM’s words) Kezia Dugdale.
Where you said:’Profoundly dishonest wee troll’.
Looks like you’re on their ‘cyber watch’ roll of nonour.
Any specifics on the cedes anyone?
BBC NEWS HEADLINES
Carney spells out the negatives of a currency union. No mention of the benefits he mentioned.
@Jimbo
No, I don’t think we should encourage Darling to take a break at all! 😀
Andrew Morton says:
“the added joy of English commenters pretending to be outraged Scots.”
That’ll be the BT call centre bunch then?
Creep Darling having a tantrum on Sky. Nasty little man. Loving it.
The £ has fallen against the Euro since 2008.
Before 2008 £ = 1.44Euro
Now £ = 1.21Euro
UK debt is higher than EU, and not being paid off.
@ cearc4.23, thank,s cearc,ah need tae declair this sleep
deprivating is now a asset,wie the amount of catching up ah
hiv tae dey here.
Rev,rein it back a bit,leave something fur themorra.
No problem Major *salutes*
…”carry on” 😉
@Kev “There are 17 independent countries in Europe who believe that either they are not ceding any sovereignty at all or if they are then they obviously think that the benefits of being in a currency union outweigh the costs.”
As said above, there’s a pretty major difference, which is that all Eurozone member states have a seat on the Council which makes all of the key decisions about the direction of European integration. Under our proposal we share a central bank with the rest of the UK, but have no representation in the key institution (the UK parliament) which will determine (or at best ‘influence’) our fiscal policy.
I really think pinning everything to a currency union is a mistake. It raises more issues than having an independent currency would – even joining the euro would be a better option in my view.
Not bad, but can you not do a simplified version for journalists?
ronnie anderson @3.35pm
ronnie it will take a couple of weeks with you just getting there you will pass
look up BLACK TRIANGLE CAMPAIGN and you will get everything you need dont sit back and wait to see what happens start now and be ready
Bill Waiters
Which is more powerful, Westminster or the BoE Monetary Policy Unit? I only ask, as Scotland must surely obtain representation on the Policy Unit, in line with our share of the BoE’s ownership.
These ‘economic’ journalists just don’t get it, badly researched. Scotland exports more and imports less – than the rest of the UK. Balances it’s books but has had the equivalent of £Billions taken from it since 1928. It’s the rest of the UK that borrows and spends too much. The UK Treasury which allows tax evasion on a massive scale by (foreign) multinationals etc., damaging British business.
Darling + Broon = Economic disaster, proven fact!
BBC now slightly changing their tack to ” Carney says it is entirely possible !
@CameronB It’s not really about them being more powerful, they both do different things. The Bank of England deals with monetary policy, but what Carney is discussing was largely about fiscal policy (which is determined in Westminster). The idea being that if you have a currency union then Scotland would have to tie its fiscal policy to the rest of the UK. So if, for instance, the UK government continued to pursue its obsession with austerity, we’d have to reciprocate to some extent in Scotland.
When it comes to monetary policy itself there are fewer problems. The Bank of England is independent in any case, so as long as there isn’t divergence between the two economies it wouldn’t cause us any issues in theory.
Darling on BBC News Channel lying his teeth out
Stating that ALL EU countries have to have the same taxation and submit all their budgets to the ECB
Sorry twat, but its only the PIGS countries that have to submit budgets due to each one of them being bailed out, due to some having rather dodgy tax gathering regimes (Greece comes to mind). But other countries don’t submit their budgets, nor do they have to have the same taxation.
Sorry, but is anyone here able to clarify the “ceding of sovereignty” that the likes of Severin Carrell in the Guardian is getting so excited about in his usual anti-Scottish independence style?
So, what “sovereignty”? And what would “ceding” of this sovereignty involve?
Thanks to anyone who can broaden my knowledge of such matters!
Darling the failed lawyer, failed MP, failed councillor, failed chancellor, trying to lecture us – what a complete numpty
Darling raving,on BBC interview, seems to belittle Scotland he is Scottish, but no friend of Scots. He is no asset for Scotland and his aspirations live in ermine.
Darling:
‘It’s just so complicated, and it makes no sense!’
Give that man a Nurofen.
Reading the BBC comments, it’s stunning how many people seem to be unable to reason from A to B.
@cearc
ATOS also admin the MOT test for your car. Watch the screen when the tester logs on to the DVLA site.
Ceding sovereignty means that there is some compromise when it comes to stating what your intended amount of borrowing, taxation & spending is going to be.
Critically though, it’s what you spend the money on that’s just as important as how much you are planning to spend.
If the Scottish Government choses to fund bus passes such as it does now, it is impossible to imagine how Westminster could block that. However. it may be the Treasury advises that the total amount of borrowing should be within a range based upon the state of the economy; no different to what happens now, except that what Scotland gets is a lump sum. And that’s almost non negotiable.
Bill Walters
Thanks for the reply. Hopefully it is not too obvious that I am no economist, but I would have thought monetary policy defines what is possible or necessary, in terms of fiscal policy.
Well there you go BBC national tv news at 5, Alistair Darling ranting “it wont happen” over and over with no response whatsoever from Scotland whatsoever.
BBC, impartial independent, UKOK propaganda machine.
Mark Carney stated ‘This is unsurprising since mutualised deposit guarantee schemes imply a pooling of risk
and loss of sovereignty. All member states must be persuaded that they won’t simply be left with the bill for
the mistakes of others’ That actually means all member states that sign up to currency union, not just one. This is something that some so called journalists cant get their head around.
Scotland would not be the only country to lose some sovereignty , but England would as well. This should be hammered home to the unionists!
Scotland faces risk in picking up England’s over spending bill
Peston on BBC News warbling on that this is bad for Scotland, basing his argument that the price of oil would fall harming Scotland
Peston comparing Scotland with Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal, unbelievable!
@Dal Riata
The sovereignty that is ceded is the ability to issue the currency that you use. Within a sterling zone the Scottish government will have to acquire currency before it can spend.
Without its own currency, a nation can face situations where, for example, it is completely unable to lower unemployment, because it cannot acquire the currency needed for that task. This is the situation that Greece, Spain etc. are currently in. Youth unemployment at 50% and more.
If the eurozone were a full federal state, with combined monetary and fiscal powers, its government could bring unemployment down by running the necessary deficits. Equally, if the various nations still had their own currencies they could do the same.
Just because they could do it doesn’t mean they would of course; the UK government could, but isn’t. But in lacking their own currency, the eurozone nations don’t even have the ability to do so.
BBC 5 pm news online, impartial/independent Bob Peston given free range now to explain how Scots oil is worthless liability if we vote YES and will bring down Scots economy but UK oil is fine. Someone call Norway with the bad news.
The BBC Radio Scotland headline I heard was “Governor of the Bank of England Weighs in to the Independence Debate”. He didn’t do anything of the kind. He was low key and measured.
@FlimFlamMan
Thanks for the response! No fiscal economist am I, but what you said makes things clearer. Cheers for that!
Just listened to Robert Peston’s so called analysis (which included a freudian slip of calling Scots ‘Nats’)
Basically he waffled on about the Scottish economy relying on Oil and that if the price of Oil would drop then it would be a disaster for Scotland, but it would be good for England/Wales/N Ireland as that would mean cheap energy. He went on to say that, even if Scotland had its own currency it would be a soft currency as there would be nothing backing it. No mention that Sterling is reliant on Oil at the moment as there is nothing else backing it, since brown sold off the gold!
@Edward
“Peston comparing Scotland with Greece, Ireland, Spain and Portugal, unbelievable!”
Not unbelievable at all I am afraid. It is no wonder that Salmond called the BBC the “British Brainwashing Corporation.” They are in full self preservation mode, determined to deny Scotland self-determination by Pravada esque reporting.
@Edward
Sterling wasn’t backed by gold anyway, even before Brown sold some. No modern currencies are backed by anything, in the sense that that word used to be used, and we’re better off for it. Or we would be, if our governments used their abilities to defend public purpose instead of financiers and oligarchs.
Modern currencies are ‘backed’ in the first instance by the fact that the national currency is the only thing you can use to pay taxes. In addition to that, they are ‘backed’ by the general state of the nation, in terms of overall economic output, stability and so on.
Scotland has the same general mix of development, skills and industrial base as any other existing independent state of similar size. A properly managed independent Scottish currency could be as strong or stronger than sterling. Peston is a tool, in several senses.
This IS a game changer. Westminster and U KOK have insisted there could not be a currency union; the Bank of England governor has just told them and the rest of us in definite terms that of course there could. Another unionist scare story shot down in flames.
AD saying it’s a sickener for Yes is just him being his usual shambolic self.
This is why the rUK will want a currency union with an independent Scotland. Last paragraph in particular. £40bn benefit to the balance of payments.
Nicholas Soames to the HOC Jan 2012.
“Figures for 2011 show that around £16 billion was spent by the oil and gas industry on exploration, development and operations. This included £8 billion in new capital investment, an increase of 25% over 2010. I know that the Economic Secretary will agree that in anyone’s terms these are massive numbers, and thus once again make the oil and gas sector the single largest investor of all the industrial sectors in the United Kingdom.
The positive benefits of this remarkable industry are not confined to Scotland. They extend throughout the United Kingdom, supporting employment for more than 400,000 people, and those jobs are widely distributed throughout the whole country. Unsurprisingly, of course, a substantial proportion—45% in fact—are in Scotland, but that means that 55% of the jobs, which is the majority, directly benefit employment throughout the rest of the UK.
The taxes forecast to be raised from the industry in 2011-12 include some £6 billion in income tax, national insurance contributions and corporation tax paid by the supply chain companies, with an additional £11 billion from taxes on production itself. That amounts to 25% of all the corporation tax received by the Exchequer. The production of indigenous oil and gas improved the balance of payments by £35 billion in 2011, thus halving the trade deficit, and the supply chain added another £5 billion to £6 billion with exports of oilfield goods and services. Incidentally, that aspect of the industry is doing extremely well here and overseas, and it is flying the flag for Britain effectively.”
link to publications.parliament.uk
…and now normal service has resumed. The BBC’s headline now reads: “Carney warning over Scots pound plan”.
Oh well, it was nice while it lasted.
The die is cast as far as the BBC is concerned. They have no alternative – even if they desired otherwise – but to go down with the ship of Union. They are institutionally incapable of providing balance and reasoned analysis on Scottish self-determination.
Watching the convulsions of this organisation in Scotland as it goes through its death throes might have been a gruesome sight had it done anything to retain our respect. It has not.
EXCL: Sun/YouGov poll tonight – Eds Mili and Balls sink to new low on who to trust on the economy, 24% v Cam and Osbo on 39%; 15 point lead.
ReTweeted by Guardian online, so same Darling who almost noone trusts to run the economy but Scotland has to trust him over our future and our currency.
We should skip the currency union and just use sterling on the open market, they can’t stop it, and we’d be free of any further restrictions from rumpUK. The global community is not contaminated by London thinking and would welcome us.
Plus, I wouldn’t be surprised if this were ScotGov’s Plan B, aka Plan A; the way they keep saying “we will use the pound”.
Ian Brotherhood says:
RE : Darling: ‘It’s just so complicated, and it makes no sense!’
TAAA-DAAA! And that is why, thanks to Darling and Brown, the UK is £1.3 Trillion in debt and climbing!
Nice line to point out, Ian.
Why aren’t we chatting with the Norwegians about sharing their currency? Simple question I know, but why not?
Lots of fun available on Peston BBC blog. Go to it
@RoughMan
There’d be the restriction of being a mere currency user, rather than a currency issuer.
@Alisdair
Currency unions are dangerous; they constrain a government’s ability to act in the interest of its citizens. So I’m hoping there’s no chat with Norway because the Scottish government recognises that, and the sterling zone talk is just Salmond running rings round Westminster as usual.
Noted that Mr Carney said this:
“Scotland is a land rich in history and ideas, and one to which I owe a great debt. Scots built the very foundations of my native land, Canada, whose first Prime Minister Sir John A. Macdonald was born in Glasgow. Scots have shaped the modern world through their contributions to culture and science. The pioneering work of Scottish economists from Adam Smith to Sir James Mirrlees has had great influence on my profession. Among them is David Hume, born just a short walk from here and a great friend and collaborator of Smith. While better known as a philosopher, Hume’s essay “Of the balance of trade” set out the theory of how trade imbalances between nations sharing a currency (gold) would self-correct as inflows of money to surplus countries raised their prices and reduced their competitiveness.”
Which I would say was entirely positive and not mentioned in the MSM!
What this all really means:
Carney says privately what currency union really means for Scotland
Ralph Blake
Mark Carney private words to the Scottish Financial Enterprise (SFE) members on his visit to Scotland outlines the Bank of England’s (BOE) conditions for currency union. BOE governor simply said the BOE would need a fiscal compact with Scotland to have currency union. The outline of this pact would be that Scotland’s deficit cannot be above a set % of GDP, the structural deficit must be below a certain % and the ratio of debt to GDP to also below a certain %. If the latter two conditions are above these limits at currency union then there must be a plan of cuts to bring them inline. This will be monitored annually. Failure to meet targets will mean the end of the currency union. The SNP’s currency union is much more than simply using the pound. That in itself would not require any fiscal pact. It is their other demands of: the BOE underwriting the Scottish banking and financial sector; the Treasury underwriting Scotland’s historic debt and issuing any new debt on Scotland’s behalf.
With Scotland’s deficit, including 90% of North Sea Oil tax revenues, ranging over the last four years between £14.5 billion and £7.5 billion and those oil tax revenues varying from £6 billion to £10 biillion, Scotland’s deficit has had a range from 11% to 5% of GDP (it was 8% in the last financial year). This would mean that if Scotland entered such an agreement they would likely be faced with making cuts in spending to keep the deficit within the fiscal compact as well as the further cuts to bring the debt to GDP ratio down from around 75% now to a lower agreed level. Alec Salmond is right about Scotland deciding its own tax rates and deciding on how it spends its money. What he fails to tell anyone is the amount Scotland can spend will be limited by this fiscal compact. The BOE requires these conditions because of the volatility of oil revenues and hence the volatility of the deficit and the lack of political control of the Scottish economy and financial sector by Westminster.
The other revelation to the SFE is that the fiscal pact is an academic question anyway. That is because all the Westminster parties apart from the SNP have rejected it. They will play this card repeatedly throughout the referendum campaign in 2014.
This leaves Alec Salmond with a number of options.
Firstly, continue to use the pound but issue your own debt while walking away (essentially a default) from its historic obligation (the latter Salmond has threatened to do in the Financial Times ). Borrowing costs would be very high because of the volatility of the deficit and a potential further default.
Secondly, issue your own currency but try and peg it to the pound but this would require reserves way beyond what Scotland could command even with its population share of the BOE’s reserves and still leave the problem of high borrowing costs.
Thirdly, use the pound but take the EURO on re-entry into the European Union (EU). It is likely that if Scotland has to negotiate to become a new EU member which is what several senior EU commission officials are stating Scotland as new nation will have to do as a condition of membership and eventually take up Euro. This is what happened with Iceland’s membership which has now stalled over the Euro take up. It would still leave the problem of issuing debt and underwriting the banking sector neither of which the EU or European Central Bank does for its member states.
Finally, the radical alternative that we have been putting forward which is take the Norwegian road and nationalise the oil, introduce progressive taxation and join the European Free Trade Alliance.
It is key that the left wing of the independence movement advocates the radical currency option otherwise they will become caught in the SNP’s currency trap which will only weaken the case for independence.
Ralph Blake is the pen name of an analyst in the Scottish financial sector who attended Carney’s briefing to SFE.