A day in a million
Posted on
April 09, 2013 by
Rev. Stuart Campbell
We suppose we should thank Mrs Thatcher for giving us the last nudge over this rather special landmark, thanks to our second all-time-high pageview record in two days:
It seems fitting somehow.
Well done Rev Stu and the team
It is not appropriate to speak ill of the dead, but in some cases, some very few, there is cause and yet…!
Let’s push for what is a right for Scotland’s future.
Well done all at WoS!
Aye, well done and congratulations!
By the way, were there any problems with the site yesterday (8 April)? It was taking much longer than usual to load, in fact I gave up a couple of times as it wouldn’t load at all. At the time I was thinking it might be a good sign in a way, as I thought the site might be overwhelmed by people wanting to leave a post. However, the post numbers don’t seem to bear that out; actually, the numbers are substantially fewer than I expected on such a ‘momentous’ day. Did anyone else notice anything untoward, or was it perhaps caused by issues at my end?
I took to emailing links (Wings and Newsnet) to all my friends when the story of the defaced Saltire photo broke. i think its the only way to get people to take notice if they’re not already that way inclined. It might just jolt them into life, might win some or lose some but I feel at least I’m doing something constructive.
The good she did for the country, is outweighed by the misery she imposed on families nationwide!
Congratulations Rev and the team. . Smashing stats. .
Well done keep up the good work,
The next few days will actually be quite strange, I feel. For most Scots, we will quietly be glad to see the back of her, but at the same time, won’t want to speak ill of the dead publicly.
How this ‘State’ funeral will be played out, will be quite interesting. In one sense, lower England will televise it in a way, that will herald and eulogise the former Prime Minister and her ‘great’ legacy. How it will be viewed in Scotland will be another matter.
I have no doubt, it will replayed for a few days afterwards, and then there will be calls for statues and titles to be setup and bestowed on her. This will also grate with many in Scotland. I can’t see anyone being silly enough up here to ask for a statue to be setup for her.
If the establishment do go over the top in the next few days, then, I can see a rise in the ‘Yes’ vote (possibly another 2 to 3%). Staunch unionists who may have been miners, foundry workers or dockers, may feel sickened by it, as old wounds are re-opened.
I don’t agree with the partying in the streets (George Sq.). I didn’t like the woman, her party, or her policies. The financial crisis …where we are today, begins at her doorstep. That is her real legacy. The collapse of the Banking system in Britain. Greed has brought Britain low, and that was her main economic policy …greed.
In Scotland, Thatcher’s legacy is devolution, which in turn, could become Independence.
In one sense, it reminds me of Longshanks and Bruce. When Bruce crowned himself King, it drove Longshanks into a fury, which fuelled his severe illness, and soon culminated in his death. His dream of a ‘United Kingdom’ failed before his eyes, as Scotland and England grew more and more apart, thanks to his ‘imposed will’ on the people of Scotland.
Seems almost prophetic and ironic that the same thing is almost happening before our eyes. Thatcher dying, just as Scotland and England drift more and more apart politically.
I remember reading one historians opinion, when he said, that if Longshanks had left Scotland alone, then in time, the two nations would have bled into one. A united Kingdom would have surely happened, as England and Scotland lived side by side in great peace…that was, until Longshanks intervention, and because of that, the rift has remained. ‘This is Scotland, and that is England’ became saying.
In her own way, Thatcher, repeated the same mistakes as Longshanks. How historians will view that in the decades to come, will be interesting, if Scotland should gain Independence.
There was a poll the other day, confirming what Maggie would never understand – for Scots a fairer society ranks above the economy.
Brilliant figures Stu, you must be doing something right, which many of us have known for some time.
@heraldnomore
There was a poll the other day.
link to news.stv.tv
Yep, this is fantastic news, Rev Stu. I saw more shares of WoS and NNS over the last couple of days on Facebook than usual – it’s bound to be having an effect. More power to your elbow.
And JLT – very interesting take on it all! Am inclined to agree with you.
well done Rev. Stu. and team
Millionaire are we now?
Well done and judging by the slowness of your site yesterday you need to get a bigger boat.
James McLaren
Congratulations and also thanks Rev. .You are the real mainstream political news in Scotland, not the fluttery eyed swivel eyed jobs worth in the papers and the lickspittle latchikoes of BBC Scotland
What have Thatcher and Cameron in common?
link to world.time.com
Thatcher was up to her oxters in Pinochet’s regime and Cameron, by way of his chums and backers is up to his oxters in some very dodgy people like, Ghadaffi, Saadam Hussein, the Iranian regime and blood money.
Some political movements never change.
“The evil that men do live after them, the good is oft interred with their bones……”
But without the original irony !!
Well done WoS.
Still waiting for MSM / broadcasters to mention the NO campaign’s dodgy donations.
During Thatcher tributes on BBC Radio Scotland this morning Tories allowed to attack SNP and independence but no questions asked on Ian Taylor’s £500,000 donation to the no campaign or that two thirds of NO money has come from people who can’t vote in the referendum.
On top of all your good news, old mither Seasick went from a doubtful to a confirmed YES!
Why as a country do we have to sit back and accept being force fed by our so called national media the views of London and the South East of this woman, for the next two weeks
To all intents and purposes she is getting a state funeral and it is an insult to the many Scots communities that suffered at her hands that their views and voices will not be heard over all the fawning and revisionism.
We are a different country and its time we had a media which represented our views, both social and political and a normal independent Scotland will give us this and more!
Forget waiting for these unionist lackies to dig up their own sh*t – I want to know how these donations can be reconciled with the rules and limits set by the Electoral Commission.
I had my doubts about using them from the start and this seems to be coming out bold as brass.
We certainly need external authorities to monitor these chancers as they go about their shenanigans and this is just the start.
Well done Rev. Congratulations for your hard work coming to fruition.
“On top of all your good news, old mither Seasick went from a doubtful to a confirmed YES!”
Your mother became a confirmed yes just because Thatcher died? How odd.
Well don Rev. the word is getting around.
Norsewarrior
I didn’t say that; you just made it up 🙂
On Radio this morning Labour ant Tories keen to use the old chestnut that SNP voted Thatcher into power and sorry to repeat this but we will hear more of this in the days to come.
Thatcher was elected due to getting a majority of votes and seats in England.
Too simplistic to blame the SNP for getting rid of the universally unpopular Callaghan Labour government in 1979. In fact the SNP Voting record in 1978/79 was with Labour 46.7% and with Tories 20%
Like Gordon Brown in 2008, Callaghan had a chance to go to the country in October 1978 but “bottled” it after private polling data suggested a parliamentary majority was unlikely then following the Winter of Discontent with union led strikes and power cuts there was absolutely no chance of Labour winning a general election even if they had stayed on to the bitter end in October 1979.
Despite the rigged referendum in March 1979 producing a yes vote for a Scottish Assembly the Labour government refused to implement the majority wishes of the Scottish people.
The Liberals formally ended the “pact” which had sustained Labour since 1977.
On In March 28th 1979 the vital no confidence vote was lost through the absence of Sir Alfred Broughton, Labour MP for Batley, who was too ill to attend and the unexpected non voting of two Irish republican MPs who normally supported Labour but felt that Labour had double crossed them on redrawing the political boundaries in Northern Ireland.
In fact Gerry Fitt and Frank Maguire flew from Belfast to London expressly not to vote.
I see the SNP FB page has now posted a link to the National Collective story about Ian Taylor. Ridiculous they’re having to do this to try to get the media to pick this up.
Well done Rev Stu and all …
The London view here is one of a great and dear leader passing on. Wall to wall coverage of how she turned the country around for the better. All newspapers are carrying favourable accounts of her political life. Of course this bolstered by warm thoughts from around the world as she was seen as a strong leader who successfully fought the cold war. The next few days will see her mythologised and Nu Labour will play their part in that because Millibot needs SE Tory votes. History is being airbrushed for her.
Stu, an idea. Have another on-line campaign (with promises for funding) to buy The Scotsman. Also approach The SNP, to raise funds via their major donors and members etc.
Stranger things have happened!
It was the Labour Party themselves who heralded in Thatcher. They were the ones that fiddled the ’79 referendum with their 40% rule. No SNP MP could support such a treacherous bunch. The Labour Party in Scotland did nothing (was it their idea) to stop Westminster imposing this on the Scots. The vote was in favour but because of the 40% rule, the referendum was lost. So you Labour folk out there, just remember, you reap what you sow, so dont be blaming the SNP.
the whole thing is so North Korean, the great dear leader etc etc
@ Edinburgh Quine
‘They were the ones that fiddled the ’79 referendum with their 40% rule. No SNP MP could support such a treacherous bunch. The Labour Party in Scotland did nothing (was it their idea) to stop Westminster imposing this on the Scots.’
Fittingly it was a Scot who was a Labour mp in an English constituency who proposed the 40% amendment. Funny how the party so keen on apportioning historical blame and who claim they’re the real torchbearer of devolution never mentions that they right royally f*cked devolution for a generation.
We had this discussion ad nauseam before Longshanker got himself banned. No matter how often the actual facts are explained, Labour will just keep repeating the soundbite.
I suspect a lot of folk are going to think this is inappropriate and sit in judgement on me for saying this but I simply can’t agree with all of these comments about it being inappropriate to speak ill of the dead! I’ve always believed that if someone was a scumbag when they were alive the fact that they happened to die doesn’t make them any less of a scumbag! There are some people who have walked this earth that the world is a wee bit better a place without them on it. As for Thatcher doing good for the country,my country is Scotland and,as far as I can see,she certainly didn’t do my country any good.
Maggie Thatcher, been in hell one day, she has already closed 3 furnaces.
“Too simplistic to blame the SNP for getting rid of the universally unpopular Callaghan Labour government in 1979”
Yes, no doubt the Tories would have won anyway had the election been held in Oct 1979 instead of May.
After the devolution vote the SNP withdrew support for the government and put down a motion of no confidence, which Thatcher piggybacked on once she ascertained that the Liberals would also support it, and as the largest opposition her vote of no confidence took precedence.
Labour then lost by one vote, with only Plaid Cymru and the UUP supporting them.
I think the people of Scotland perhaps blamed the SNP to a certain extent though – they lost almost all their seats in the election, going from 11 to just 3.
I think the people of Scotland perhaps blamed the SNP to a certain extent though
Or wondered why it was worth voting for them – what would it achieve exactly? Lots of people had just done this to pressure for a referendum. Then people had gone out and voted Yes in majority in said referendum only to have the result undemocratically overruled by Labour.
So, vote SNP again, have another referendum and have this overruled too? Do the same again every 4-5 years?
Foolishly I suspect some thought that if Labour were not going to play ball on devolution, then maybe the Tories might do so; after all, they had promised. Also, people didn’t know what the Tories were about to do economically to any great extent; that lesson was still to be learned.
Labour can blame away all they like. They fiddled the 1979 referendum and screwed Scotland over. Why on earth do they then feel the right to blame people for not voting for them?
I can say with absolute certainty I will never vote Labour again. In 2010 I was still swithering between not voting for a bunch of warmongering, privatising cretins and voting SNP instead, and trying to keep the Tories out by voting Labour instead. Never again after Better Together and the sheer hatred Labour types have shown towards those of us who now vote SNP and who support independence. They’ve spent the past few years ramming it down our throats that a vote for Labour is a vote for Westminster continuing just as it is.
I have no doubt at all if we get a No next year based on Labour lies, followed by a major slump in Labour votes from Scotland that leads to the Tories just pipping them to the post, us SNP voters up here will be blamed again. I really don’t care.
How do the Scottish Labour politicians feel when they go on about the damage the late MT did to Scotland, only to look south and hear their great Labour leader compete with Cameron and Clegg and heap praise on her? How do they square that circle? Do they really expect people in Scotland not to notice the contradiction? Surely they don’t think we are that daft?
David Mundell was on the radio praising her to the heights. And one of the things he said was that many of her most divisive policies have now been “accepted as perfectly right” by everyone. Utter rubbish. They have been accepted as perfectly fine by the Westminster establishment – all 3 of its parties and the media. They have not been accepted by people in Scotland, or Wales, or Liverpool, or many others across the UK. It’s this cosy Westminster-bubble consensus that is creating real divisions in society, and will ultimately lead to the kind of stresses and strains that will break the UK politically.
Labour in Scotland need to be very clear about where they stand on that divide. If Lamont and her party disagree with Mundell, where are the policy differences that prove it?
Cath, if Scotland votes no next year, the Tories will win the 2015 election. I have no doubt about that.
Luigi says: Do they really expect people in Scotland not to notice the contradiction? Surely they don’t think we are that daft?
I’m afraid they do. And if wasn’t for us meddling cybernats, they probably would have gotten away with it… to paraphrase a popular cartoon.
“if Scotland votes no next year, the Tories will win the 2015 election. I have no doubt about that.”
I can’t see it happening. The coalition is widely seen as a failure, its economic policies have failed to reverse the downturn, Ukip are rising and will take Tory votes, and many Lib Dem seats in the North of England will switch to Labour. Even in 2010 before all those negative factors the Tories couldn’t win a majority, I don’t think they’ve got any chance of getting one in 2015.
Congratulations to you Stu and everyone who contributes to W.O.S .
As the saying goes ‘ onwards and upwards .
I have a feeling that your best has still to come .
Lol at Major Bloodnok. Too true. One pf my FB friends called me a cybernat on Sunday, after my reaction to the SoS flag business. He meant it pejoratively. But then there is a lot of this “winding up the Nats” going on, I am afraid. Tedious and puerile. However, I am happy to be termed a cybernat. They don’t like it up ’em, and we are doing that. That’s why the tensions are being inflamed and the stakes getting higher, the media nonsense getting more ludicrous. Somebody else described it as a “death rattle”.
” The coalition is widely seen as a failure, its economic policies have failed to reverse the downturn, Ukip are rising and will take Tory votes,”
It’s not seen as a failure by many voters in England. Far from it. That’s why Labour, rather than fight against the benefits reforms are falling over themselves to promise they’ll be equally as tough on benefits. As they were “equally as tough” on law and order, immigration etc. The two parties have so little between them Labour is no longer a serious opposition for anyone who wants change. They have nothing to offer anyone – not on the right and not on the left. The thought of Ed Milliband and his party leading the country is no less depressing than the Tories. And you can expect the Tory-favouring media to rip into him big style in the run up to the 2015 election too – they’ll be mincemeat by 2015.
UKIP are rising, and the Tories will be very likely to end up doing a deal with them in the run up to the election. They’ve already promised an EU referendum, and it’s highly likely the two will end up agreeing more concessions in return for working together to secure a victory in 2015.
I am pretty sure that’s what we’ll end up with in 2015 – a Tory/UKIP coalition, a shift even further right and, if Scotland is stupid enough to vote no, extreme punishment and removal of powers from Holyrood, or more “devolution” of the type which makes life impossible.
Lol at Major Bloodnok. Too true.
Also, if Scotland votes NO, the Tories will be riding high on anti-Scottish and “we saved Britain from the nasty nats” sentiment, union jacks and everything else British nationalist. And, as Labour voting Scots begin to wake up to what they’ve voted for and to the lies they’ve been told, I really can’t see Labour’s vote here doing anything but plummeting.
The future after a No vote is just too depressing to contemplate. A Yes vote might just be what the English left – and right – needs to shake them out of moribund complacency.
UKIP and Tory vote combined is up to 55%. The two are closely related; one rises as the other falls. Right-wing historical landslide stuff.
Neither would benefit from competing against each other for 2015. FPTP would ensure both lost ground to Labour.
In all probability there will be a UKIP-Tory deal; the deal will be an in/out referendum on the EU. Farage will encourage his voters to vote Tory which they’d likely do anyway given most are quite aware if they don’t they could let Labour in again by the back door.
And Scotland will be off at this prospect.
The subsequent re-negotiation of a newly independent rUK (whilst the newly independent Scotland is doing the same) with the EU will form the basis for the in/out referendum. Essentially, as Great Britain ends, so different parts will decide their place in the EU.
We wont lose the Referendum next year. The press, including the BBC are biased but the grassroots that is working as we speak, will answer people’s individual questions. We will direct them to sites such as this and Newsnet where they can read the other side of the argument. What we cannot entertain is words such as …if we lose… , we wont. The Scots are not stupid, despite Cameron’s belief otherwise. So folks, if everyone who is for Independence just convinces one other person, we’ve won by a landslide. We have truth on our side, we have right on our side, so now we just need effort which we have by the truckload. (My apologies to “President Bartlett” for paraphrasing his speech)
UKIP should do well at the EU elections in May next year.
The trigger for the Tory deal most likely and the floodgates opening in Scotland.
We shall see.
“I am pretty sure that’s what we’ll end up with in 2015 – a Tory/UKIP coalition”
I don’t think it’ll happen, the only seats Ukip will gain will come at the expense of the Tories, and they’ll also cut the Tory vote in marginals.
Also Ukip have said they’ll never work with the Tories while Cameron remains in charge – you only have to look at the comments on the Telegraph to see the extent of the hatred Ukip supporters have for Cameron, they seem to hate him almost as much as they hate the EU.
But you’re right, regardless of whether Labour or the Tories win in 2015 we’ll be better off as an independent country.
“Farage will encourage his voters to vote Tory which they’d likely do anyway given most are quite aware if they don’t they could let Labour in again by the back door”
You’d think so, but just a glance at the Ukippers on the Telegraph site would suggest otherwise – they despise Cameron and advocate voting Ukip regardless of whether it means Labour will win the election!
Perhaps those views aren’t typical of all Ukip voters, but I can’t see the party doing any sort of deal with the Tories while Cameron remains in charge – they’ve expressly stated that they won’t.
The nightmare for us in Scotland is if we vote no and Labour then win the 2015 election. The Tories will then ditch Cameron for the odious Boris Johnson who Ukip are quite happy to do a deal with – and then they’ll probably win the next election in 2020.
“And Scotland will be off at this prospect.”
The problem will be if it happens just after a NO vote.
Edinburgh Quine – I agree we will probably win, and also agree we should be very positive about that victory happening. But I think the imagination aspect of the two different futures is also important. We can imagine what Scotland could look like after a Yes vote (I imagine the biggest party ever, in the history of parties followed by some absolute magic as we re-take our position in the world as a real nation). But the counter to that, especially for the undecided, is imagining the alternative. I suspect it may be that thought – imagining waking up tomorrow to those two alternatives – that might push some undecides or no folk when the day arrives to cast a vote.
Also, one big issue we have right now is the sheer ignorance of many folk about the way things work. For example, on the Better Together page (which I can’t post to now, having already pointed out a truth about welfare being at Westminster once there) there is someone accusing the SNP of “bribing” people by saying they’ll scrap bedroom tax only if we vote for independence, and asking why they aren’t doing that now. The fact they can’t seem to understand the concept of “they can’t because we’re not independent and welfare is at Westminster – that’s why they’re asking you if you want Holyrood to be independent” is quite staggering.
We have a lot of work to do in very basic education about the reality. And the media and Labour in Scotland are dedicated to ensuring that doesn’t happen and people are further confused or misled instead.
UKIP are piling on the pressure on Cameron for good reason; they want an EU referendum and ASAP. They will continue to hammer him until they get what they want.
Their only realistic chance of a referendum on the EU is not standing against the Tories in 2015. If they do, they can kiss the referendum goodbye.
Farage is no fool, at least in this respect.
Lib Dems were polling over 30% just ahead of 2010. What did they get? Only 23%. Lots of people knew fine well voting Lib could let the Tories or Labour in. Same applies for UKIP voters and letting Labour in.
“Also Ukip have said they’ll never work with the Tories while Cameron remains in charge”
That sounds like a straight out political threat. “Want to win in 2015? Ditch Cameron and lets do a deal”. It is not beyond the bounds of the possible that we could end up with a Boris Johnson or Theresa May led Tory-UKIP coalition in 2015.
Cath. That sounds like a straight out political threat
That’s exactly what it is. The deal may or may not yet require Cameron’s head. Designed to really pile the pressure on him though.
UKIP share is a mirror image of Tory share, e.g.
link to tinyurl.com
Monster right-wing win if the forces are combined. Far too tempting for both parties.
Cameron has already conceded on the referendum.
UKIP will have him writing the promise in blood soon.
The is very little chance Ed Milliband will ever be UK PM. The ‘right’ is not doing badly in polls, it is doing really well; up to 15% ahead of Labour. Ergo, Labour have no chance.
And Scotland will be off.
I’d imagine we might even have a rough date set for the EU referendum before we go out to vote in 2014.
Dave’s already said before end 2017. Ties in nicely with both an independent Scotland and independent rUK having completed negotiations with the EU post UKoGB break up. Ergo the rUK goes out to vote on the new package.
“Their only realistic chance of a referendum on the EU is not standing against the Tories in 2015”
That’s assuming they aren’t at all interested in gaining some power and prestige for themselves. I find it hard to believe Farage will stand aside and let the Tories run unopposed in 2015 if his party continue to poll highly and he sees the chance of him and others in the party winning seats.
I find it hard to believe Farage will stand aside and let the Tories run unopposed in 2015 if his party continue to poll highly
There’s a difference between polling highly and polling enough to win under FPTP. You’ve really got to be getting towards the 35% mark to take seats and UKIP will struggle massively there. Fielding decent candidates rUK wide is also a big problem for Farage (for the moment, UKIP is something of a one man band). There are various ways a deal could be struck, i.e. not fielding candidates in key seats with Farage backing the Tories on the promise of a referendum etc.
Farage will most likely continue to enjoy the trappings of his MEP position in the meantime. Maybe become a Tory candidate if he gets his out of the EU dream. A lordship would be tempting I’m sure.
The Tories will try to buy him off in some way. That’s what they do.
“The ‘right’ is not doing badly in polls, it is doing really well; up to 15% ahead of Labour”
The latest poll I’ve see (YouGov 7th April) has Labour on 40%, the Tories on 30% Lib Dems 11% and Ukip on 13% – giving the ‘right wing’ 43% and the ‘centre left’ 51%, or higher if you include the Greens and SNP/Plaid.
“The latest poll I’ve see (YouGov 7th April) has Labour on 40%, the Tories on 30% Lib Dems 11% and Ukip on 13% – giving the ‘right wing’ 43% and the ‘centre left’ 51%, or higher if you include the Greens and SNP/Plaid.”
Calling the Lib Dems centre-left when they’re part of a Tory coalition government is pushing it a bit. Hell, calling LABOUR centre-left is a stretch.
ICM
UKIP+Tory = 38%
Labour = 39%
Opinium
UKIP + Tory = 45%
Lab = 38%
Angus Reid
UKIP+Tory = 42%
Lab = 39%
TNS
UKIP + Tory = 44%
Lab 37%
Comres
UKIP+Tory = 42%
Lab = 38%
I just saw I wrote 55% before. My bad – should be 45% (rough 30 Tory + 15 UKIP, although the Tory+UKIP share in Eastliegh was 53%.). That’s a landslide under FPTP.
On balance Tory + UKIP seem to have the edge over Labour.
Interestingly, there does seem to be a bit of a decline in Labour share recently; could be the start of a general downwards trend.
Not sure where it is going.
Certainly, these figures show how much the Tories need to court UKIP.
Aye, erm 55% would give you like 70% Tory MPs in the HoC!
Horror of horrors.
I don’t care what the polls say about the gap between Labour and the Tories or who’s ahead, or anything like that. There is one very simple reason why Labour will not win the 2015 election:
“Prime Minister Ed Miliband”.
“Prime Minister Ed Miliband”.
That. Plus no actual policies. Plus they’ll take an absolute media hammering in 2015, probably from all sides.
If you don’t like bedroom tax, NHS privatisation, ATOS and welfare reforms, Labour will be promising nothing at all different.
“Prime Minister Ed Miliband”.
So much simpler than my convoluted posts.
😉
“Prime Minister Ed Miliband”
I think that is why his brother left politics – Labour unlikely to be elected in Westminster for quite some years. Better get a different job in the meantime.
“On balance Tory + UKIP seem to have the edge over Labour”
But Labour + Lib Dems + Greens + SNP/Plaid has the edge over the Tories + Ukip.
As your polls show, Labour is likely to win the most seats, so if they don’t get a majority then they’ll probably form a coalition with the Lib Dems and the other parties mentioned above rather than allow a Tory/Ukip coalition to become the government.
“But Labour + Lib Dems + Greens + SNP/Plaid has the edge over the Tories + Ukip.”
You are joking aren’t you? Labour had a chance in 2010 to do a deal with the Lib Dems and SNP. They refused to even speak to the SNP. Are you seriously saying after the last few years and a divisive referendum campaign they would in any way deal with the SNP? The absolutely won’t. Nor Plaid, most likely. Also, despite having a practically identical manifesto and purporting to support federalism, the Lib Dems refused to go into coalition with the SNP in 2007.
Deal or no deal, the loss Dave has had to UKIP will return partly or wholly to the Tories as is invariably the case under FPTP. I can’t imagine a UKIP voter voting in such as way as to allow Labour to win; which is exactly what the Tories will be shouting from the rooftops coming the time ‘A vote for UKIP is a vote for Labour and no EU referendum“.
The EU referendum is very popular in England and likely to be a big vote winner. Ed’s really on the wrong side here.
And why would the Libs form a coalition with Labour even if that were possible?
Putting aside the fact that the Libs are due to be slaughtered in 2015, policy-wise they are much closer to the Tories. The main people in the Libs now are orange bookers; very close to the more Liberal Tories of which Cameron is one. That’s why Nick and Dave get on quite well and the coalition has survived.
Ed Miliband will not win in 2015; he’s just not PM material.
Jeez he’s in opposition yet is doing worse than Cameron. His fate is sealed.
link to d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net
Anyway, I doubt even a return of Labour could save the union; it was New Labour that finished it off! Certainly, that poll which asked how people would vote in 2014 based on a prospective Labour or Tory led government post 2015 had it a really close shave even for Labour. This time there’s no shining white knight riding in with devolution to save the UK like 1997.
New Labour in Westminster and devo max for Scotland? That might buy it a while, but not long. But devo max is impossible; only a complete federation of the UK could achieve that. So end of story.
One way or another, the union is coming to an end. After all, this is not a passing fancy, but a movement that has steadily built for 70 years. The damn burst in 2007 but nobody really noticed until they found themselves up to their necks in a wholly predicable May 2011.
“Ed Miliband will not win in 2015; he’s just not PM material.
Jeez he’s in opposition yet is doing worse than Cameron. His fate is sealed.”
Opposition against the most hated government I’ve ever seen, which is making a concerted attack on the poorest AND privatising the NHS. And yet as effective at opposing any of it as the cliched chocolate teapot.
Serious question: If the vote is ‘Yes’ for Scottish independence, and then, by 2016, the UK, as it is now, would be no more, would UKIP not find themselves with a party name that was, somewhat, odd, to say the least?
Yes, I’m aware that in the result of a ‘Yes’ vote in Scotland, what remains of what was once the UK can call itself whatever it wants to, and if that was to be ‘the UK’ then so be it, though it would be rather strange to do so.
So, a ‘Yes’ to independence has to be fiercely opposed by UKIP and its affiliates, because, at the very least, ‘There goes our party’s name, FFS!’…? Yes, or no?
“You are joking aren’t you? Labour had a chance in 2010 to do a deal with the Lib Dems and SNP”
Yes but the point is that Labour effectively lost the 2010 election – the Tories won the most seats and the other parties would only form a coalition with Labour if Brown wasn’t PM.
In 2015 it will be a different story – Labour will probably win the most seats and so will have a mandate to form a coalition. I’m sure they, and the other parties I mentioned, would far rather form a coalition together than allow a Tory/Ukip coalition get power.
“I’m sure they, and the other parties I mentioned, would far rather form a coalition together than allow a Tory/Ukip coalition get power.”
They didn’t in 2010. Talk of “mandates” is pish – if you have enough votes and seats to form a coalition that has a majority, that’s a mandate by definition. It’s how democracy works. Labour were exhausted by power and utterly horrified at the thought of having to be nice to the SNP. Nothing will be different in 2015. They hate them more than they hate the Tories, by a fair distance.
“I suspect a lot of folk are going to think this is inappropriate and sit in judgement on me for saying this but I simply can’t agree with all of these comments about it being inappropriate to speak ill of the dead!”
The original phrase is attributed to Chilon of Sparta in the 6th Century B.C., ( as “Don’t badmouth a dead man”). Of course, this was during a period where people thought the dead could hear you, so it was just common sense not to speak ill of them unless you wanted a poltergeist. When the Romans adopted it as “De mortuis nil nisi bonum” (“of the dead, nothing but good”), Christianity was starting to gain prominence, and prayers for the recently deceased were made to accelerate their journey through purgatory: speaking badly of them was supposed to have affected that process.
Nowadays in our modern secular society, it’s largely a meaningless platitude: a person should be treated in death as they were in life. If they were good people in life, they will be remembered fondly and eulogised accordingly – which is just good manners, and shouldn’t need a Greek or Latin maxim for people to remember. If they were not, then they don’t warrant any defence from criticism or negative commentary any more than they deserved it while alive, and unless you’re a Greek polytheist or Christian, there’s no reason to bother.
The notion that someone’s family deserves respect doesn’t wash either, unless you honestly think we shouldn’t speak ill of Augusto Pinochet after his death just because he has children & family. It comes down to whether you’d prefer to be tactful, or to be honest. I’d pick the latter any day.
I just can’t see Labour winning for a good while. They have been in decline since 1997 with the Tories on the rise.
Tory
2001 31.7 +1.0
2005 32.4 +0.7
2010 36.1 +3.7
Up 5.4% since 1997 to highest share of the vote since 1987
Labour:
2001 40.7 -2.5
2005 35.2 -5.5
2010 29.0 -6.2
Down 14.2% over the same period to record low.
It is actual % on the day that matters – their modest poll lead is not enough to have any confidence for 2015. A win would buck the long term decline. A Tory majority is needed with the ‘books balanced’ again before the electorate will be happy to let Labour in. Such is the nature of UK politics.
With Ed so universally unpopular – more so than David Cameron – they’ve a mountain to climb. Add in the no policy platform and it’s hopeless.
While people may be unhappy with the Tory plan and think it disastrous at least they do seem to have a plan.
But Labour + Lib Dems + Greens + SNP/Plaid has the edge over the Tories + Ukip.
In any case, the SNP only votes on matters that affect Scotland.
@ the Reverend
Now that you’ve passed the million mark, any chance of some WoS bumper stickers to spread the word even further?