Who to believe? #2
So what’s really going to happen to oil revenues in the next few years?
“An independent Scotland would begin with a £4 billion black hole in its finances due to a fall in oil revenues, UK Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander said yesterday.” (The Scotsman, 2nd March 2013)
“”Oil production should revive from recent levels for a period of several years, particularly with the higher-price scenario, where the increase could be substantial,” the study by Alexander Kemp and Linda Stephen [of the University of Aberdeen] concluded.” (Reuters, 5th December 2012)
“I think people have been calmer about oil prices given the new supply, but if you really look at the implications of rising demand, you see this isn’t true,” said Isabelle Koske, economist at the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development and one author of a report on oil prices published Wednesday.” (The Wall Street Journal, 6th March 2013)
We just can’t decide who the most reliable authority is. What a puzzle.
The basic laws of supply and demand, not to mention the threat of ‘peak oil’ make it a no-brainer.
Put it this way – the UK Government can’t blame rising oil prices for the hike in petrol prices (as well as partly justifying its investment in renewables and continuing dalliance with nuclear) THEN turn round and try to persuade us oil is now some sort of junk commodity.
Or maybe that falls under ‘Too Stupid’ …
Rev you may want to make room and you can slap me down for going O/T, but check this out on the Guardian.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/scottish-independence-blog/2013/mar/07/scotland-independence-oil-climate?fb=native&commentpage=1
Words fail me.
It is absolutely essential that Scotland takes control of the oil and gas reserves that fall within our North Sea jurisdiction, because it is these resources that will help us build resilience to the coming oil price shocks – “oil prices could rise to anywhere between $150 and $270 a barrel by 2020…” (OECD). This of course reflects the inevitability of the basic economics of supply and demand coupled to a diminishing resource and the consequences are frightening. Watch this:
Scotlands hydrocarbon resources must be used to develop renewables and to protect its population from the energy supply shocks that are just around the corner. Without independence we are truly fecked
O/T
The herald to close its Edinburgh office Journalists expected to work from home (maybe they’ll take their copy from Wings)
How about believing Stephen Nickell a member of the OBR‘s main steering committee.
Source Telegraph March 2011 (my eboldening)
“The OBR forecasts oil prices to peak this year at $113 a barrel, but to remain at $107 or above through to the end of 2015. Oil will only add to inflation if prices keep on rising, which is why the OBR expects the consumer price index to fall back to 2pc by 2013. But, Mr Nickell added: “Forecasting oil prices, as anyone knows, is a mug’s game.”
Note no significant oil price drop predicted through to 2015.
In actuality prices have gone up.
Also Westminster ministers talk up the UK’s future oil revenue to external bodies it is only Scotland that gets the U-certificate censored version.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/8405250/OBR-warns-on-effect-of-inflation-and-rising-oil-price.html
“Rev you may want to make room and you can slap me down for going O/T, but check this out on the Guardian.”
That’s hardly OT. Edited in, cheers.
Excellent research Stuart, especially that Guardian/OECD revelation. Why isn’t the media quoting those recent forecasts? </rhetorical mode>
I only posted the older example above because
1. It was an OBR member
2. He virtually admits they don’t know what they are talking about.
“Excellent research Stuart, especially that Guardian/OECD revelation. Why isn’t the media quoting those recent forecasts?”
In fairness, the Guardian is KINDA the media… 😀
Look, the facts no longer matter; the consequences to unionists whether they be individuals, MPs, MSPs, employees of the BBC, employees of the print media or anyone else championing the union from within a British government department or agency, abandoned rational arguments long ago.
Why? I suggest that they are incapable of imagining themselves operating in an exclusively Scottish environment because they view Scotland as inferior, diminished, a less important entity than any British version, even when that British version of whatever it is that they live & operate within in is broken, corrupt & deeply flawed.
They are so besotten by the privelage & access to potential wealth by the rotten British state that they are not prepared to take even a small risk by relieving themselves of their dependency.
Consequently, no matter what facts, evidence, anecdote or sound advice that support any benefit to Scotlands people post independence, unionists will defiantly rubbish them because to even reach a mild concensus let alone an agreement, makes them vulnerable to derision, exclusion & potentially will see them become unemployed, at least in the short term.
For some, such as flipper Darling & the inept Michael Moore, this is a certainty. Britain will turn its back on these two as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow morning if Scots decide to reject the concept of the UK in 2014. And there are plenty of other political legacies of Britain who will also be scrambling for a place, somewhere, anywhere.
But we wont have forgotten the fight these people put up & the lies, deceipt & corrpution they chose to support, even when it was to the detriment of Scotland’s people. They surely know this too so they will continue to issue peurile diatribes so long as they think some in the country will take notice of them.
The bottom line is that it is their bottom line that will take precedent over everything else; now that the referendum is looming, the argument is becoming personal; it’s all about protecting the individual & their financial interests.
The tone & language from unionists can only become more extreme as each day passes.
Now, where are my noise cancellation headphones?
Tinyzeitgeist at 5:55pm
Strongly agree, but suggest the conclusion should be tweeked to: ‘we’re fcuked without independence!’
G H Graham
You make a good point, though I reckon it’s even worse. You see the Westminster unionist troughers from Scotland will have told their ‘chums’ up in the Scottish parliament, that if independence happens, they will all be on the first plane up to Edinburgh, to ‘acquire’ the next available seat. Due to their perceived inferiority, the sitting unionist MSP’s will be politely de-selected next time around, and replaced by the likes of Ian Davidson and Darling.
As the unionist cabal at Holyrood now know their fate (i.e P45’s all round) when the ‘big boys’ come up from Westminster, they have in turn highlighted this logic to unionist councillors across Scotland.
This is I believe part of the reason we see a long line of unionist MP’s, MSP’s and councillors lying through their back teeth about how awful independence will be. They are merely thinking of their own personal careers.
Sorry Rev
Missed out the word ‘broadcast’
I don’t believe anything. I either know or don’t.
Ask Kaye Adams. 25pence would be a sensible answer.
I mean what the fuck does the OECD know?
OBR = Osbournes bull***t reports
From Craig Murray’s blog.
Another scam from the BBC
Propaganda against Scotland
by craig on March 7, 2013 10:28 am in Uncategorized
A particularly sickening trick from the BBC a few weeks back raised my blood pressure whilst in hospital and almost finished me off. A French Euro MP was asked for “the French view” on Scottish independence. She said that France would oppose it and the French government takes the view that an independent Scotland would be outside the European Union. I was absolutely astonished that the BBC had managed to find the only French person in the entire world who is against Scottish independence, and that she was telling an outright lie about the position of the French government.
Then I realised who she was – the former research assistant (and rather more) of New Labour minister and criminal invoice forger Denis Macshane. She worked for years in the UK parliament for New Labour, in a Monica Lewinsky kind of way. All of which the BBC hid, presenting her simply as a French Euro MP. There are seventy million French people. How remarkable that the one the BBC chose to give the French view of Scottish independence was a New Labour hack!
http://www.craigmurray.org.uk/archives/2013/03/propaganda-against-scotland/#comment-397882
The North Sea Resources are a vital part of an Independent Scottish economy just as those resources are vital to the United Kingdom economy. Just as important to the Independence debate is the political debate and in particular the issue of Westminster claiming that Scotland ceased to exist in 1707. For that reason alone any true Scot with an ounce of self respect has no choice but to vote Yes just for our right to exist as a people and a Nation
http://chicchater.co.uk/2013/02/scotland-england-equal-partners/
I was born in 1948, well now you know.
I thought myself Scottish more or less from the moment I could work any of this stuff out, but it only turned into a commitment to independence about ten years or so ago.
Some idiot telling me my nation was extiguished is an arsehole. I dunno but 1707 from 1948 is what? 241 years (originally typed as tears, but there you go)
It is not because I pass, or want to pass, any sort of ‘any true Scot’ test. I would prefer to argue, that if you have lived here a week, and have a vote, then you should look to your future here and let your ancestors claim that they were indeed ‘a true Scot’. And voted ‘Yes’. It’s worked for the Bostonian elite, has it not?
Presently all I see and know is that all the huge South Korean Oil & Gas fabrication yards as are their shipyards are jammed packed full of mega billions dollar off Oil & Gas projects, albeit not just for the North Sea but it’s an indication of the future investment the oil company’s plans and developments, knowing them they must be certain that the oil & gas prices are not going anywhere but UP.
A little bit O/T but in all the discussion of the GERS and our oil I see Nicola gave a speech to the Campaign to End Child Poverty yesterday.
http://www.scotland.gov.uk/News/Speeches/nicola-sturgeon-childpoverty
A discussion on the relative wealth of Scotland can become a bit dry for some people so I think it is important that we also look at in the context of what we could do with this wealth- and also to compare that with the abject failure of the Westminster system to address such fundamental issues as child poverty.
An e-mail from Nicola includes a very good graphic on GERS by Yes Scotland which can be downloaded and shared with as many folk as possible. It is very clear for anyone to undersatnd we give to Westminster more than we get back.
https://d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net/yesscotland/pages/1798/attachments/original/1362673674/ScotlandsEconomy.pdf?1362673674
Perhaps someone could post the graphic.
Don’t believe any predictions. They are, after all, predictions and not certainties.
@ Fiona
“Perhaps someone could post the graphic.”
Do you mean converted to jpeg, or some other format?
@CameronB
In whichever way it can be posted here, I’m not too good at converting files etc. and don’t want to clog up the site if I get it wrong!
@ Fiona
I’m pretty clueless myself about how to upload, and don’t know if it is possible to do what you are suggesting. Perhaps the Rev. is planning on doing it himself? After all, it is his shiny new home.
@CameronB
Aye and we don’t want to get the carpet dirty as he’s just moved in!
@Clydebuilt – thanks for that link (above).
What a great spot that is by Craig Murray! The BBC found out once again.
Superb chance to further expose this deviousness by the BBC with an article perhaps, Stu? With the agreement of Craig Murray, of course!
@ Fiona
Did you mean something like this?
http://i.imgur.com/4KFiXDK