What if you were a party
Posted on
September 14, 2013 by
Rev. Stuart Campbell
…and nobody came?
Though it’s being held in Glasgow, this isn’t just the Scottish Lib Dems conference. This is the conference for the entire UK party. Possibly all their voters too.
Tick tock, Lib Dem MPs. Tick tock.
From what I’ve seen on facebook, there were more people protesting outside.
Typically pathetic display from a shower of embarrassing tossers – they stand for nothing, and it shows.
More people turned up to see Nicola Sturgeon and Denis Canavan in the Volunteer Rooms, Irvine, last week, and nobody forced them.
To be fair, Stu, I’ve been at many an SNP conference where there were empty chairs for many of the motions & debates, but where the room was packed for what people thought was important stuff. So you should really give some context…if this was during the leader’s speech, the LibDems are in trouble. But if it was a debate on subsidising sandals & muesili, then perhaps less so…
“So you should really give some context”
As you can see from the first pic, it was Jo Swinson’s big opening address. If I read the BBC website correctly earlier on, Clegg’s main speech isn’t until Wednesday.
I made it about 70, Seven oh, persons in the place for the Tether speech . Did’nt try to count the ones at the back of the chairs. I would assume press. But then I was never good at that counting thing.
It was probably 700. Perhaps.
Actually, it must be really dispiriting for them. God, I spoke to more people at our stall at Anniesland, Glasgow this morning.
I think they’ve done well to attract the numbers that they have done. After all, it’s in Scotland. That’s, like, far away.
Looks like comfier seats that the Volunteer Rooms though
Ach, my bad – there was context. But the report from the Federal Conference Committee? I wouldn’t have been there either!
they have no idea what is coming their way at the next General election, which is political annihilation.
I heard there was a sale on in Poundland. That could explain the low turn out.
“I heard there was a sale on in Poundland. That could explain the low turn out.”
Speaking as a (now ex-) Lib Dem voter, I hope that’s where all the fuckers are by 2015, doing workfare.
Says here they’re expecting 7000.
link to conventions.peoplemakeglasgow.com
Here’s Danny ‘Foodbank’ Alexander doing his speech last year.
Utterly excruciating – it’s painful to watch, and his opening ‘joke’ must be one of the worst ever broadcast anywhere. Gold-standard bawbaggery.
O/T – Monday is the deadline for Glasgow2014 tickets!
But, here’s nice story. I was filling in my address and automatically typed ‘U’ into the “country” pull down menu and it selected Uganda, UAE, Ukraine .. etc. Hmm, can’t find United Kingdom – hell no! You have to select “Scotland” as “country”.
I do hope this what it will feel like when buying stuff online in the future!
Oh dear ………. so THATS how much selling your soul costs. Now they know! Wee Wullie must be really looking forward to his slot. And Wednesday for Nick? ……. what the hell are they gonna do to fill their time between now and Wednesday? Maybe come up with some inspirational ideas – like dissolving the coalition? Nah, probably not. Wonder if they still think they’re “better together” with the Tories! 🙂
Jo Swinson looks like she has rictus …
Are we entering a chapter of Scottish history that will be referred to as “the LibDem clearances”?
I’m just wondering if there could be anything more embarrassing than being photographed at a LibDem afternoon tea club meeting?
Is the “LIVE” caption irony from the BBC?
I feel sorry for fundamentally decent politicians like Swinson and Kennedy to find their party has been completely hijacked by the Orange Book Liberals and driven off down a cul de sac.
O/T
I don’t normally read the guarniad these days, given its penchant for publishing bare faced lies about Scotland, and the independence campaign. However, out of curiosity tonight I had a wee look, and found a couple of ‘interesting’ articles. The first is an interesting summary of the risks from nuclear warheads, both in storage and in deployment within Scotland (as an aside, is Scotland the only nation on planet earth to store nuclear missiles just a few minutes drive from its largest population centre??).
link to theguardian.com
The second article is about Boris Johnson’s Tory boy, Kit Malthouse, who is suggesting the Scottish Government should use its tourist budget money to promote tourism in London rather than Scotland. London Tories just crack me up.
link to theguardian.com
re: Callum above; Only one hotel chain does something similar, and that is intercontinental hotels (Holiday Inn etc..), who allow you to choose Scotland as nationality on their website, and for their loyalty club. For that alone, in my book, they deserve a gold star.
Have to admit to looking forward to seeing Willie Rennie doing his thing.
He’s the Norman Wisdom of Scottish politics, always good for a laugh – his speech will be the equivalent of struggling with a plank, stepping in a bucket of paint, getting covered with wallpaper and superglueing himself to the ceiling.
But he won’t mind one wee bit because he’s doing it all for ‘Nick’..he’ll do anything for Nick…remember this? ‘I had him up in Scotland over the summer, twice, and I’m determined to get him up even more…’
The Lib Dem heartlands of Glasgow.
The local Atos interrogation bloc is a few minutes walk from the conference centre in Cadogan Street. I expect we’ll be hearing a lot of Lib Dem speeches in praise of the miracle cures of this Lourdes of the North where, after a 20 minute session of computer inputting by a keyboard operator masquerading as a medical professional, tens of thousands of chronically sick and disabled Scots are given the wondrous ability to sign on as unemployed.
I’m sure they’ll also be proudly pointing out that, before they achieved government office after printing a fraudulent general election manifesto, Glasgow had no network of foodbanks to boast about as many of its people largely went unsanctioned by vindictive, authoritarian, human rights abusers at their local DWP.
Reference –
Glasgow Against Atos!
link to glasgowagainstatos.wordpress.com
Imagine going into a Poundland five years hence, and seeing Willie Rennie stacking copies of his own memoirs on the shelves. Sweet.
I saw somewhere that 3 out of 4 LibDem voters won’t vote for them again, praise indeed.
Craig Murray’s blog post announcing after a lifetime as a Lib Dem member he has left and joined the SNP –
The Lonely Liberal
Craig Murray
18 Sept 2011
link to craigmurray.org.uk
ps
Not forgetting that one poll gave the SNP more support in England than the Lib Dems –
Polling woes worsen for Nick Clegg as party trail SNP … in England
Newsnet Scotland
30 Sept 2012
link to newsnetscotland.com
Seems to me the BBC did a thorough job of reporting Nick’s speech but left out all the empty seats. Have to say I was watching the report for the seating situation. No interest in what he had to say, with or without a tie!
@joe kane-
Thanks for link to glasgowagainstatos. Didn’t know about the regular protests – more power to ye’s, and hope to join you sometime.
Just noticed the on-screen BBC caption spelling mistakes “confernce”, “democract”.
Is someone there having a laugh?
Was there any final estimate on the number of WoS readers who said they’re going to Calton Hill?
Imagine us all in that hall – don’t know if we’d fill it, but we’d make a better fist of it than this mob. (Where is it anyway? Inside the SECC, the Armadillo, or what?)
“Was there any final estimate on the number of WoS readers who said they’re going to Calton Hill?”
I think we ended up at 800 or so. Should have asked who was going to march with us 😀
Perhaps the yellow haze over everything is indicative of their pathetic and damaging inaction while actually condoning the attack by westminster on the poor and disabled.
It’s quite obvious they are cluctching at straws in order to save their own cowardly skins. Urgh.
The Lib Dems. are more interested in the crumbs of power than anything else. They will whore themselves to any party and forget their policies to get some power. They are pathetic and their leader is no more than a showman.
callum says:
14 September, 2013 at 9:33 pm
O/T – Monday is the deadline for Glasgow2014 tickets!
I cant wait for this either especially when something ask for region and language then you are asked do you accept… AYE/NAW 🙂
I think we ended up at 800 or so. Should have asked who was going to march with us
Still time for that.
800?
Well, as Rev’s often pointed out, most readers of this blog never comment, so the actual number will be higher.
Okay, plenty will have other affiliations and loyalties, will do the ‘march’ with their party or protest-group, but when we get up those effing stairs there’s no reason why we shouldn’t all get together for a group hug and family snap.
Whatcha think Rev – is it worth pinpointing a time we should aim for to get as many of us as poss within roughly the same area for the purposes of photies? (And yes, you’ll probably be hoist aloft in a celebratory manner by the burlier Wingers, like it or nay…either that or it’ll be like the end of Suskind’s Perfume.)
Thanks ianbrotherhood.
I haven’t managed to join one of the now legendary Glasgow Against Atos Friday rolling protests that begin outside the Atos Cadogan Street lubyanka myself.
These sorts of grassroots protests and activism goes on all the time but goes completely unreported by the news media. A few weeks ago, for instance, whilst mainstream journalism was getting itself in a lather about a few EDL non-entities in Tower Hamlets, disability activists (some from Edinburgh-based Black Triangle Campaign) occupied the BBC and government ministries such as the DWP and the Department of Health in London. Not a word about it in the news, not even by the BBC which was a target.
Protests and government extremism
DPAC Disabled People Against Cuts
05 Sep 2013
link to dpac.uk.net
800?
Who is getting the first round at the Albanach?
It’s not tennis!
Tweet from official BBC Sport account claims that Andy Murray and Colin Fleming are playing for the “England” team
Let’s just double-check the facts here. Andy Murray is from Dunblane, and played for Scotland against England in the Aberdeen Cup team event. Colin Fleming is from Linlithgow, and won aCommonwealth Games gold medal for Scotland in the mixed doubles with his partner Jocelyn Rae. Both men speak with strong Scottish accents. And yet when they lost the third set in their Davis Cup doubles match for Great Britain about an hour ago, this was the summary from BBC Sport’s Twitter account –
“Croatia take third set tie-break 8-6, but England lead 2-1.”
link to scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk!)
If Scottish professional golfers can have a saltire stuck beside their name on the
telly screen during events why can’t a Scottish tennis player have similar on the screen
in events barring Davis Cup / Olympics?
It’s true though “Taxis are getting fairer” now they have those taxi wardens in luminos coats on Sauchiehall street and outside central station.
Andy Murray always has a saltire by his name on Google. I don’t know who decides these things.
I’ve just sent off my £21 for my pass for the SNP conference. Booked the Friday off work, booked the cat into the cattery, and booked a motel room for £26 per night including continental breakfast, how about that.
I remember when it was in places like Dunoon, and you could just wander in, no questions asked. This year – oh wow.
Thanks Morag.
Dam those pesky foreigners.
link to archive.is
“joe kane says:
14 September, 2013 at 10:14 pm
Craig Murray’s blog post announcing after a lifetime as a Lib Dem member he has left and joined the SNP –
”
Not Near as good as Neil Craig’s open letter to the lib dems which I was handed while walking the dog thu the wee tunnel this afternoon , presumably by Neil himself, (I didn’t really pay attention though as I was wondering why no one else wanted to give me their flyers, might be the dog, i had showered) it’s a joy to behold and luckily for you it’s on line as well.
link to a-place-to-stand.blogspot.co.uk
link to twitter.com
@ Ian Brotherhood says:
Imagine us all in that hall –
There’d be Morag in one corner holding forth about Lockerbie, and you in another waving an SSP banner, and the Major in the centre with a G&T, and Scottish Skier surrounded by laptops and poll data….
No, I think we’ll be better in the open air. See you next week.
I was going to say that having Neil Craig on your side is no bargain, but he announces his allegiance to UKIP, so that is self evident
@kininvie-
Aye, you’re probably right.
O/T, but has anyone seen this via the WoS Twitter? –
‘the SNP and Scottish nationalists don’t like English people – they don’t like to talk about this but it’s the Panda in the room, no?’
The author is Mike Dailly, who, if I’m not much mistaken, is he of Govan Law Centre fame.
Govan Law Centre does fine work which many decent folk support. I’m one of many who signed their petition against the Bedroom Tax (although I didn’t know it was ‘sponsored’ by a certain Jackie Baillie).
What on earth moves him to make such an asinine comment? Why? What does it achieve?
This is an example of the imbecilic selfishness which leads to schisms in well-motivated movements which would otherwise achieve all their aims, and more.
Mike Dailly is committed Labour supporter who wanted the 2007 Scottish election result declared null and void and made noises about challenging the results through the courts but nothing came of it.
Here’s Mr Spock getting a telepathic update on the state of SLAB:
New SoS poll, I smell unionist fear!
YES gets some good news in ICM poll.
Not to many details.
link to scotsman.com
‘Calll me Dave’, offers just 130 words in tomorrow’s Sunday Herald to save the union. Scottish Skier is right, Dave wants rid of Scotland. Amen!
In the SoS piece, as linked by call me dave, above, Linda Fabiani conflates the Dance of the Seven Veils with…Jackie Baillie.
Is there to be no end to this horror?
130 words. That’s all Scotland means to them. Yet hunners of thousands of folk will still vote No next year – they might as well go into the polling booths on their hands and knees, shouting “PLEASE, TELL ME YOU STILL LOVE ME!!!!”
‘Calll me Dave’, offers just 130 words in tomorrow’s Sunday Herald to save the union. Scottish Skier is right, Dave wants rid of Scotland. Amen!
I couldn’t order a pizza in 130 words. I’ve just finished an electioneering article requested by a local paper. The journalist asked for 250 words, and with great effort I have cut it down to 280. For a council by-election. And someone thinks 130 words is appropriate to “save the union”?
Goodnight all!
“800?
Who is getting the first round at the Albanach?”
Well after the trouble he got me into with the wife I think it should the man in the jar 🙂
“I think we ended up at 800 or so. Should have asked who was going to march with us”
Wow if we end up with a thousand that’s one tenth of the total who went last year,
now if all the other organisations increase their numbers by a similar amount well that’s? that’s? that’s a LOT more 🙂
Niel Craigs open letter quote
“The “LibDems” are a totalitarian party, committed to ever more state power, impoverishing the people, ecofascism and indeed to war crimes to which even Adolf Hitler did not descend. If you are a liberal, in the meaning of the word the founders would recognise, you should join UKIP, the only true liberal party in Britain. ”
OH dear do I hear the sound of someone jumping from a frying pan into a fire?
ianbrotherhood says
“Okay, plenty will have other affiliations and loyalties, will do the ‘march’ with their party or protest-group, but when we get up those effing stairs there’s no reason why we shouldn’t all get together for a group hug and family snap. ”
Never having been up there before I didn’t know there were stairs, this of course will freak my wife out to the point she wont go, did I hear someone say the yes campaign were putting on some sort of buggy to take the less able to the top?
doug daniel says
” they might as well go into the polling booths on their hands and knees, shouting “PLEASE, TELL ME YOU STILL LOVE ME!!!!”
Is Rockall big enough to hold all the cringers?
failing that,
whit aboot Muckle Flugga?
Apologies to the 700 residents of unst (Muckle Flugga)
but these poor people have to live somewhere,
for pitys sake have some humanity will you?
how can these poor people live among us after a yes vote has comprehensively proved them to be total idiots?
they would have to spend the rest of their lives eating crow pie (I amongst other would make bloody sure of that :))
and England wont want them, suddenly the real attitude towards Scotland will come out.
mibbe they could build a copy of the Gorbals? they would feel right at home there.
It’s quite miraculous how Scotland always seems to become so attractive to the unionist parties when any kind of vote on our constitutional future is in the offing, it was the same in ’79, the first time in decades when all 3 leaders of the Westminster parties decided to grace us with their presence in the same year, as soon as they get the result they want , they piss off back tae London, and forget aboot the daft jocks ’til the next time there is a chance the oil money will flow in the wrong direction , I.E , Edinburgh instead of London. Next we will have comedy Dave and his cabinet in Glasgow tae oversee the commonwealth games, and no doubt Ed militant will put in an appearance at some stage, if only tae sort oot Lamont, sarwar ,Baillie and co. These eejits must think oor heeds really dae button up the back !!
I see Darling is claiming Alex Salmond is running scared of debating with him.
He should know his place in the scheme of the referendum debate.
David Cameron is the leader of the UK using the full resources of the UK Civil Service to attack Scottish aspirations. Alex Salmond is the leader of Scotland. Although neither have an official role in the YES Scotland or NO Scotland campaigns, as the best known leaders they should debate.
It is nonsense for Cameron to claim its up to Scots as an excuse when his Tory friends south of Hadrian’s Wall are bankrolling the NO Scotland campaign
Alistair Darling is running scared of debating with Dennis Canavan who is vice chair of YES Scotland.
David Mundell as UK Governor General should debate with Nicola Sturgeon
and
His deputy Michael Moore with Patrick Hardie
These four debates will give everyone a fair chance to put their respective visions before the voters.
Off topic (again!)
ST Panelbase poll
Support for independence at 37% (nc) while backing for the union is 47%(+1) and 16% are undecided (-1).
Most interestingly, when the 16% of Scots still undecided are asked how they would vote if the referendum was today the No lead falls to just four points with the gap narrowing to 52:48. I’d assumed that DKs would tend to the No side when forced to decide right now.
O/ T
Scotland on Sunday reporting BBC downplaying any Scottish fervour during Commonwealth Games .
“FANS expecting partisan coverage of Scotland’s battle with English, Welsh and Northern Irish athletes at next year’s Commonwealth Games could be in for a disappointment.
BBC Scotland has told staff no TV programmes will be dedicated solely to the performances of the host nation, Scotland on Sunday has learned. Medal-hunting Team Scotland followers who tune in to the BBC’s extensive television coverage of Glasgow 2014 will have to accept all British competitors being given the same billing.
It means that in practice, for example, swimmer Michael Jamieson, the Glaswegian who won a silver medal at last summer’s Olympic Games in London, could be beaten by his English training partner Andrew Willis – and if he is, some insiders fear the mood of the coverage may not reflect what the impact this will have on Team Scotland.
Although the coverage of Glasgow 2014 by the BBC network, as host broadcaster, is expected to be thorough and extensive, Scotland on Sunday understands BBC Scotland’s comparatively meagre resources mean there will be no daily highlights package concentrating solely on Team Scotland’s performance – a concept that was initially discussed but then abandoned.
Next it will be a ban on displaying the Saltire as David Cameron attempts to hijack the games.
O/T
Thought some folk might want to have a wee look at, and maybe comment on, this piece
link to martindimerydaysinthelife.blogspot.co.uk
All a bit late in the day but anyone free to go along to the SECC for 10am today, 38 degrees organising a protest at Lib Dem conference against gagging order. They are meeting outside the main entrance of the SECC at 10 am.
link to secure.38degrees.org.uk
Did someone mention G&T?
Ian says at 8.17
Panel explain their methadology in Sunday Times:
IN OUR regular Sunday Times referendum polls, Panelbase has generally shown a No lead of about 10%-12% (excluding undecided), which is a smaller gap than most of the surveys conducted by other agencies over the past 18 months or so.
Political polling is a mixture of art and science, and the construction of an accurate snapshot of public opinion at a given moment in time includes several elements which can influence the results, such as methodology (online, phone, face to face), sample source, and question wording/order.
Despite variations in these factors, there are often plenty of similarities in the raw results of polls (for example, links between party affiliation and independence voting intention), but data analysis can explain a good deal of the variance between polling organisations.
It is common practice for polls to use quotas and/or post-fieldwork weighting to create a sample which properly represents the population. Panelbase applies weights on age, sex, socioeconomic grade and household tenure, and other companies implement a variety of similar measures.
For our Scottish polls, we weight the results to match the 2011 Holyrood election, filtered to report only people who are very likely to vote. To demonstrate an example of the potential effect of analysis on outcomes, we reran our tables for this poll with the results weighted to match the Scottish vote in the 2010 Westminster election instead.
Still filtered on likelihood to vote, this produced a 63%-37% lead for No — more than double the 12-point gap of our Holyrood weighting approach.
While there is logic in weighting Holyrood voting intention questions to 2011 and Westminster voting intention to 2010, there is a debate to be had about which is more likely to produce an accurate result for the referendum question.
For example, it’s a Scottish issue but also a UK constitutional one. We are sticking with our current model for two main reasons. First, while we accept that Westminster or plain demographic weighting are perfectly reasonable, we still feel that weighting to Holyrood is also valid, and our respondent recall of that more recent election seems to be closer to reality.
Second, for consistency — trends are more important than individual polls. If all the polls (or the average of all the polls) with their various methods continue showing No holding a fairly consistent lead (including ours, albeit with a narrower gap), then it would seem highly probable that No would win, if the referendum were to be held now. If they all started moving in one direction or the other, it would be a fair indication that genuine shifts in attitudes were afoot and that one of the campaigns may be changing people’s minds.
Ivor Knox is managing director of Panelbase
ianbrotherhood says:
‘Have to admit to looking forward to seeing Willie Rennie doing his thing.’
Seriously, mate …naw! Just naw!
Most of the time, when its wee Wullie turn at First Ministers Questions, I end up closing my eyes, and go ,’Noooooooooo’. It’s a real effort not to smash my skull off the edge of my desk (at this point, my head is already pulp after listening to Ruthie and Johann LOL))
Because of one reason, Wee Willie does my head. The man’s mission in life seems to be about one subject, and it is this …’I put it to the First Minister last week about childcare for 2 year olds. In the rest of the UK …blah, blah, blah….’
That’s all he is interested in. How many hours should we give to 2 year olds? Stuff the economy, the bedroom tax, the slashing of benefits ….hell, even the Referendum. Wullie is only interested in childcare!
I just wonder if some of these Lib Dems sitting at the conference will be doing the same as I do. As Willie hits the podium …’Noooooooooooooooooooo’
A bit annoyed with Ruth Wishart on A Marr show.
When asked by AM if the Scottish papers were broadly split over support for Indy, she seemed to give the impression of saying Yes, and stated the Herald supported Indy!
The lucky buggers have got two seats each, oh look, some of them have even got three. A waste of time party for a bunch of wasters, quicker they disappear the better.
Alba Gu snooker loopy!
Another London Dividend
Nice slap down on Captain Darling !
Just listening to Ken MacDonald on Radio Scotland and, I don’t know if this is a regular feature, but he gave a round up just now of the blogs including Bella Caledonia, Ian Smart and Wings over Scotland. And he gave the Rev a name check too mentioning this very article. We’re famous.
Juteman says:
A bit annoyed with Ruth Wishart on A Marr show.
Yeah she had a good chance to tell it like it is and she didn’t (solidarity with chums ?)
Which are the non-partisan Scottish papers she alluded to ?
Then came over all attracted to Devo Max …… Jesus, (spent more time talking about Devo max and Marr lapped that up.
Got the impression she wanted asked back !
I’ll await tables for ICM/Panelbase, but suffice to say, based on raw Y/N numbers before any ‘what ifs’ regarding more devolution are taken into account, they fit with current trends of convergence to parity by the end of 2013 / early 2014.
The sharp drop in No leads given the prospect of no more powers is testament to both this and how soft a section of the No is.
@JLT
Willie obviously empathises with two year olds. Probably something to do with mental age.
The trends show that the polls are converging. No doubt now.
One interesting aspect of the ICM poll for the SOS is that neutral observer John Curtice uses the phrase “our poll” in his analysis several times.
link to scotsman.com
So much for neutrality.
Albert
I just find the man totally bizarre. His party are in cahoots with the Tories, and both have presided over the worst welfare slashing since …well, forever!
There is so much he could raise as issues, but for 5 minutes each Thursday, he wastes that time talking about how much childcare time should be given to 2 year olds. I don’t give a monkeys how much they get in the rUK. It is not a major topic. There are greater issues to discuss.
I think for Willie, it is a totally missed opportunity to prove he is a big boy and so show he can discuss big boy problems.
Unless of course…he’s doing this deliberately. It’s his way to help Project Fear by blethering about a load of nonsense, so he can alienate viewers about Politics so they won’t be bothered about voting in the Referendum. In other words, ‘Whit’s he sayin? Aw Christ, childcare fir 2 year aulds. Is that aw they talk aboot in that bloody Parliament. Waste o’ f***** time, the whoale loat of thum. Right, wheres ma newspaper so I kin look it the fitbaw? Whit’s Sally sayin aboot the gers?’
As I say, when I hear Tricia say ‘Mr Rennie’ for his turn to blether a load of sh…, Well, I groan and die inwardly!
Some initial reaction to the cluster of recent polls.
Boost for pro-independence campaign as ICM show a No lead only half as big as suggested by YouGov
I was slightly worried earlier this evening when Blair McDougall and Euan McColm eagerly retweeted the news of an impending (and extremely rare) ICM poll on the independence referendum. ICM are of course one of the most credible and evergreen of pollsters, so if they had shown a whopping No lead in line with YouGov, it would have been a cause for concern. But thankfully that hasn’t happened, and on balance I’d say that Yes should be the campaign to take most heart from this poll – the figures are roughly equidistant from Panelbase on the one extreme with its one-point Yes lead, and YouGov on the other extreme with its thirty-point No lead.
link to scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk
Media coverage of [and numbers of vistors to] Edinburgh next weekend will act as a timely comparison :o)
While there is logic in weighting Holyrood voting intention questions to 2011 and Westminster voting intention to 2010, there is a debate to be had about which is more likely to produce an accurate result for the referendum question.For example, it’s a Scottish issue but also a UK constitutional one. We are sticking with our current model for two main reasons. First, while we accept that Westminster or plain demographic weighting are perfectly reasonable, we still feel that weighting to Holyrood is also valid, and our respondent recall of that more recent election seems to be closer to reality.
🙂
Which is what I’ve been saying re Yougov and why to ignore their polls; they weight by 2010 and lots of people who voted Labour say they voted SNP, whether due to regret/denial or false recall (in 2011 they voted SNP) so get massively down-weighted with Labour respondents up-weighted.
If yougov were to switch to the more reliable 2011 weighting, they’d look like panelbase.
Rev, watch your language,this is not only a very good site, but one which is watched by meny
” others”, so it is not becoming for the sites originator to resort to Dutch swear words, there are plenty of words in the English language which would cut these other party’s down to size!.
call me dave ,
To be honest mate, I don’t believe for a second that the Yes vote is anywhere near the low 30’s. I think it is around the 40% or just above it, and I utterly refuse to believe that the No vote sits at 50% or above 50%.
I believe they are either roughly level pegging, or with the No vote just ahead at 2 or 3% ahead
However, there is a year to go. I don’t see ‘Yes’ folk jumping to a ‘No’ vote. If anything, it’s ‘No’ folk jumping to a ‘Yes’ vote.
For a while, the media slaughtered the ‘Yes’ percentages (and yes, I know, they still do), but ever so recently, there are chinks appearing. One poll put us ahead, another said we were level pegging. Slowly, but surely, the ‘Yes’ vote is creeping up. As I said the other day there, the problem is, that most Scots don’t know the facts – even the ‘No’ers! Give them the facts, let them discuss it, and then watch a change in the polls.
I do believe by next summer, that that is all we will be talking about …the facts. Then I will be interested to see the polls. If more folk by next August say they will vote ‘Yes’, then the chances are, others who weren’t sure, or were ‘No’ers may jump ship. It’s next summer that the real battle will take place as far as I am concerned.
A summary of the Panelbase poll from the Sunday Times:
link to thesundaytimes.co.uk
the wording of the healdline must have been made through gritted teeth.
I believe they are roughly level pegging,
And you’d be correct. They are certainly getting close to this. Dig a little deeper past headline figures and that’s what you find anyway; as illustrated by both the ICM and the Panelbase when some ‘what ifs’ are added to the mix; swing to parity drops to between 2 and 5%. That’s approaching standard variance of +/-3% so could mean both are actually equal. This is very good 1 year out, particularly as the No has already had it’s peak late 2012/early 2013 and is now on the back foot.
Enjoy
link to derekbatemandotnet1.wordpress.com
Derek Bateman tells us what a priceless asset we have in Prof Curtice!
Latest on XCweather for Edinburgh next Saturday has high pressure but a bit cloudy.
A 5% swing in current voting intentions will give the Yes campaign a victory…….. and we now know the basis of how that swing could be achieved.
1. The prospect of a Tory government will see a YES victory.
2. A refusal by unionist parties to outline their proposals on further devolution will see a YES victory.
3. Nothing other than Devo-Max, that is powers over tax and welfare being devolved, will see a YES victory.
Better Together are boxed in. There is nothing they can do to assuage possible NO voters from voting YES.
Anyone seen the inside of the herald? Classic layout. Double page spread, one full page for Salmond, one empty page for Cameron’s 130 words. You don’t even have to read it to see how little Scotland matters to Cameron.
Stewarding next week so will wave to the Wings contingent or see you on the hill.
Language used about the Fiberal men of straw entirely appropriate
Never having been up there before I didn’t know there were stairs, this of course will freak my wife out to the point she wont go, did I hear someone say the yes campaign were putting on some sort of buggy to take the less able to the top?
John, you need to email Anne, the lady who is organising this.
anne@independencerally.com
There are buses for the mobility impaired going up before the marchers get there, so as not to have buses and pedestrians on the narrow road at the same time. The time window leaving ground level is 11 am to 12.40 pm. That means anyone who needs a lift should not gather in the High Street but should go straight to Princes Street/Waterloo Place and get on one of the buses.
There is also limited seating for the disabled for the rally. I have booked bus places and seats for a couple of friends of mine I persuaded to come, who are getting on a bit and the husband has a gammy leg. Anne is outstandingly helpful – just drop her an email.
Good old BBC:
Straight from page 11 of today’s Mail on Sunday.
——————
BBC’s £325M plan to keep broadcasting.
Secret plans are being drawn up to ensure the BBC is still available in Scotland if it votes for independence.
Alex Salmond’s plan to break up the corporation and replace it with a new Scottish channel could see viewers miss out on shows, such as East Enders. Doctor Who and Miranda.
But is has emerged that senior BBC chiefs have raised the prospect of the Corporation continuing to provide all it’s services if Scots vote for separation – in return for it being allowed to to keep the £325M a year license fee income raised in Scotland.
The proposal is backed by YES Scotland chief executive Blair Jenkins, a former head of news at BBC Scotland. But Scottish Secretary Margaret Curran said ‘This is more evidence the Nationalists can’t offer any certainty on the BBC’s future.
——————————————————————-
I vote for a new Scottish Broadcasting Service. You will still be able to get the usual rubbish anyway as do the Irish and many parts of the European continent.
£325M in fees and I saw previously only about £120M spent in Scotland.
As for Curran she can’t even be certain she’ll be required in Scotland after 2016 so her and her pals will soon be like Baillie jockeying for position when the dust settles.
“BBC’s £325M plan to keep broadcasting.”
Christ, that’s one of the worst deals ever. If Blair J really approves of it he needs a slap.
@gillie: 2. A refusal by unionist parties to outline their proposals on further devolution will see a YES victory.
No chance of that happening now. Nick’s on the case, according to this link to archive.is in today’s SoS:
Clegg, who arrived in Glasgow for the Lib Dem conference yesterday, says today that the pro-UK camp needs to spell out its backing for more devolution.
He says: “I don’t think you need to cross every T and dot every I. I think it is so important for the Conservative and Labour parties to politically commit themselves to further devolution in the event of a No vote.”
He adds: “Every time I speak to Scottish friends, they say we don’t want all the risks and disruption of yanking Scotland out of the UK but, equally, we want Scottish nationhood and identity to be more fully expressed in our institutions. Well, I completely agree with that.”
Clegg’s “we can’t discuss more powers until you vote No” schtick is just plain bonkers. Who in their right mind is going to vote No for pie in the sky? We have fallen for that con trick once before and I think it is right we remind people of that. The reason they can’t articulate their proposals and were desperate to ensure there was no second question is because there are no such proposals.
Yes campaign reporting that they have information, that the No camps internal polling shows, they have just 25% who are certain to vote No.
SS has repeatedly said that the No vote was soft…he was right!
I have heard rumours that indeed the hall is packed to the gunwales, but most of the political pygmies have slipped down the back of the chairs….nobody’s looking at the stage because they’re wondering where all the screaming’s coming from.
Every dog has his day right enough – here’s ‘Norman’ going up the Calton Hill steps, to give some idea of the gradient. And in many places it’s steeper.
(PS Sounds like the owner is Japanese, and this vid’s only had 1 view. Let’s help Norman go viral – make someone in Japan very happy and get them talking to their pals about what’s going on here.)
There’s a road up to the top of Calton Hill that goes up behind the old Royal High School (that “Nationalist Shibboleth”, according to DD), so you don’t have to take the stairs.
I vote for a new Scottish Broadcasting Service. You will still be able to get the usual rubbish anyway as do the Irish and many parts of the European continent.
Yes and in the future they can meddle and be telling stories about somebody else not us !
But is has emerged that senior BBC chiefs have raised the prospect of the Corporation continuing to provide all it’s services if Scots vote for separation – in return for it being allowed to to keep the £325M a year license fee income raised in Scotland.
The proposal is backed by YES Scotland chief executive Blair Jenkins, a former head of news at BBC Scotland.
—————–
Well Blair might be nodding OK but he’s not the SG is he.
When YES we can and should go our own way you can have a stonking Scottish Broadcaster for a lot less than £325M.
Apparently (if I remember) we only get about £120M invested in Scottish staff and programmes at the moment.
Imagine all the folk we don’t need that lie to us or torment us at the moment
Kaye and Fred no more !!! Bliss.
The role of the Lib-Dems in contemporary British politics:
link to cdc.gov
Just in case anyone still thought the LibDems were a party of principle perhaps this wee piece from Newsnet might give you a wee head’s up. 😆
link to newsnetscotland.com
Cracker of a pic of Nick Clegg in the Daily Heil web site (yes, I know…) Very fine work by a photographer:
link to i.dailymail.co.uk