The march of time
As alert readers will know, we’ve just done another Panelbase opinion poll. You’ll be hearing more about the results over the next couple of days, but we thought we’d give you the headline finding first.
The most interesting thing about those numbers is that as far as we can make out that’s the highest Yes figure Panelbase has ever returned for that question. (The last two times, for the Sunday Times in September and July, both came out 47-53.)
3% of people who voted No last September now say they’d vote Yes, and a further 6% are now undecided. Meanwhile, just 0.6% of Yes voters now say they’d vote No, with 2% having switched into the Don’t Know camp.
The 2% swing compared to Panelbase’s last two polls is of course within the margin of polling error. But as the poll was “in the field” during and after the Scotland Bill debate, readers may have their own opinion as to whether it’s significant or not.
It’s slow but at least it’s in the right direction.
We’ll just have to keep up with spreading the myth bustin’.
Looks like we are still a long way away from having another referendum on Independence.
It’s disheartening that after 6 months of Tory government so many seem still not to care about who governs the country.
OK it’s progress and as slow as it is, it is in the right direction. Nobody has said it would be easy so we must carry on and do the best we can to inform the ignorant. Starting with those closest to home, yes the NO voters in our own families, we all have them.
Good. And that also sets a sound base for the other questions in the poll.
Ca marche! 🙂
Slow and steady steps.:)
[…] The march of time […]
[…] As alert readers will know, we’ve just done another Panelbase opinion poll. You’ll be hearing more about the results over the next couple of days, but we thought we’d give you the headline finding first. […]
The deluge of anti-independence propaganda has continued unabated since the referendum: That familiar mixture of fear, smear, misinformation and veiled threats spiked with the new ingredient of legislative dirty tricks in Westminster.
Yet in spite of this, or perhaps because of it, support for independence continues to grow.
It now feels as if the unionists have no other tactics left to try. They’re one-club golfers hacking desperately around a challenging links course. In a howling gale. In the dark.
Interesting times.
A “cheeky” suggestion would be to let SGP have an early look at the results?
Mmm, and Curtice.
Also we are streets ahead in knowledge. We worry about what we know is coming like the Scotland Bill. It won’t have impinged on most as little of the Tory storm has made landfall yet.
Wait untill it does.
A solid 4% increase in just one short year from 45% to 49% is a brilliant acheivment, especially when one considers the relentless SNPbad propaganda churned out on a daily basis from the BBC & the billionaires’ MSM.
At this rate, in just under 3 years, we will be 60%.
The right direction of travel and impressive for little over a year.
Osborne’s next two budgets will no doubt provide some focus for some.
Of course it’s significant when you think there’s no official campaign at the moment so nobody’s been asked the question for real
What were the Stats before the start of the last time, a long way behind what this is now
Given that next year many folk will lose their jobs, cars, homes, and have difficulty even feeding their children let alone clothing them, this number in six months time will I think alter dramatically
Say Bye Bye to your Nikeys kids, and your fortnight in Benidorm, Oh, and pensioners,that’s the Tory voters too, it’s goodbye winter fuel allowance next year
Aye better together, ask the HMRC workers that now Mr Mc Clyment
By the way, “margin of error” is a misnomer, it implies the result is + or – 3%, and that’s how it’s often used by posters. It isn’t, the distribution is a curve with a peak, and it represents an area in that curve, 95% or whatever it is. But the peak is still the peak, and that’s what the results show, + or – nothing.
Does a far bigger majority still want devo-max though? And do they think red and blue toryboy world’s Smith Commission shyste last week, is actually devo-max?
Well that’s good news, slow but steady and I think it has to be that way.
What I find encouraging is that, in all the shitstorm that they throw at us day in and day out, it’s not having a great deal of success is it? It sure doesn’t wash with me, just white noise to be ignored.
Some of the NO voters have to endure the crapfest that is yet to come, before they will see that independence is the way forward. The down side of that of course, is that the rest of us have to suffer as well. Naebuddy said it wiz be easy, but we jist hae tae keep fightin.
We seem to have them scared out o their wits as they are becoming more hysterical as time goes on. As others have said they know indy is coming and it’s squeaky bum time now.
Remember folks the real Tory cuts have not yet begun to bite.
The sham benefits of ‘Better Together’ and the lies of Tory pooling & sharing, so brilliantly spun on their behalf by the lemmings of ‘Browns Balloons’; better known as ‘Scottish Labour’ (now redefined as Scotch mist).
City Link / Tillis russell Paper Mill / Steel workers & HMRC staff can all now see the glaring lies and subterfuge of Westminster politics and Project Fear / Proud Scots. All post indyref.
Remember ‘Joe Public’ can see the the idiots are not just saying SNP Bad all the time; their saying NHS staff Bad; Police staff & Fire Crews Bad.
Time is on our side and the tide is gradually changing. The demographic weighting of a building youth vote, against an ebbing elderly vote, sadly weighted towards No; is also not insignificant.
Biggest hurdle is still what seems to be an almost completely hostile media core with every paper stacked up with ‘Britpack journalists’ & Editorial directive, with WM state media still the only broadcasters in town.
As others have said, too many folk haven’t seen the Tory cuts yet. Most folk just get on with their day to day lives and ignore politics until it actually affects them.
I think Yes up 4% in just over a year is a fair improvement. It might accelerate a bit once various things come to a head in the next few months.
Educating folk about Cameron’s Scotland Bill is going to be difficult, and the main obstacle will be the corpmedia. I think talking to friends, colleagues and other people will be the key.
I would never have made the journey from committed no-voting naturalised UK citizen to Yes without colleagues who talked to me.
A pledge of loyalty to the UK required when I became a UK citizen was the biggest hurdle to overcome before I decided to vote Yes last year. Now I am a committed Yesser and would never go back. Thanks to Wings and other sources I have a learned a lot in the last year or so.
@yesindyref2
I don’t think you have the ‘margin of error’ correct there. You are right that there is a ‘normal distribution’ curve with any objective sampling, but the margin of error is EXACTLY as it suggests. the figures in the sample could be +/- 3% incorrect.
From Sigma Six web site:
How well the sample represents the population is gauged by two important statistics – the survey’s margin of error and confidence level. They tell us how well the spoonfuls represent the entire pot. For example, a survey may have a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percent at a 95 percent level of confidence.
These terms simply mean that if the survey were conducted 100 times, the data would be within a certain number of percentage points above or below the percentage reported in 95 of the 100 surveys.
So in this case the YES vote could actually be 46% or 52% but only in 5% of surveys. They are a snapshot and are best used to identify underlying trends rather than an exact indication.
The trend is definitely in the direction of YES
The steady drip fills the pail.
Much better than NO-57% YES-43%.
With the Corpmedia storm against Indy getting 49%-that’s actually a result.
Couple that with the tory scorched earth policy and we’ll get there much sooner than I thought possible.
We just gotta keep on keeping on with the soft no’s even though that’s sometimes hard to swallow.
Not long now
Oh dear lord I manage to get the bloody post I tried to put up this morning on the previous thread just as a more relevant thread is opened, grrr
link to youtube.com
Ive had a sudden realisation it might have been a single word that stopped the post (wot I wrote) this morning so I’ve taken out and replaced it so here goes.
@ me 🙂 this morning
Bob Peffers
“They know a proportion of us are indeed fools and it is those fools they attempt to fool all of the time; and yes they can be that stupid”
I agree the fact the 39% of Labour voters dont even know who Kezia Dugdale is proves they would vote for the steam coming off a turd if it had a red rosette on it is truly amazing and makes the whole “Scotland is the most politically aware country bla bla bla” a bit ridiculous, those folk if anything have become EVEN MORE disconnected from the political scene because in their heart of hearts they know if they were forced to confront reality they would be independence voters and the thought of that scares them shitless, not because the prospect of independence is so scary but the fact they would have to confront their stupid baseless bias would show them up for the morons they really are, its as simple as (they are) that the only thing these people fear is facing their own stupidity!
So they just walk on by averting their eyes and hope they dont see a reflection of whats really going on in the shop window,
That guy at the foot of Leith walk before the referendum was a classic example of this kind of mindset,
exclaiming loudly (as if he knew what the fuck he was talking about) that Scotland coudnt possible survive alone because all we have to sustain us is Whisky and sheep!
or take that knuckle dragging moron at the Rangers Forfar game who said “we’d all be living on £10.00 giros” (whoo so 1970’s) and we’d lose the Queen who brings in £20 million a year”
Im sorry but its not good enough to just ignore this level of stupidity, these idiots have a fucking vote for Christ sake, and for every one of these fools they probably have family who they can browbeat with their stupidity so you have a substantial potental voter base voting for a complete and utter fantasy just because they “read it in the Daily Record”
Until we either get rid of these brain dead idiots or force them to take a lesson from Gordon Mackintyre Kemp or someone WE ARE FUCKED!
Rant over, carry on.
Cuilean says:
“A solid 4% increase in just one short year from 45% to 49% is a brilliant acheivmnet?”
Yes, coming down to Earth, I think you are right.
Saying you want independence, changing your world status, your government, all sorts of aspects of your daily life … is a big step. Once taken, you are less likely than most decisions to keep changing (though a few clearly do). I expect Y/N is less likely to move around rapidly than say party voting intention.
So movement in the right direction, even if more slowly than most of us here would want, is good.
It is possible that many NO voters still get their entire world view via CorpMedia and BBC. While we Wingers get all excited about events in WM, most NOs may be completely oblivious to it all!
Also, clearly 40+% intend to vote for a Unionist party. Presumably they therefore believe what their chosen party is telling them continually via the same CorpMedia and BBC!
I think there is little doubt BetterTogether2 exists and is working hard. Perhaps it’s time to begin countering with YesScotland2.
Whether these figures would be reproduced in a referendum tomorrow I’m not sure. I am sure however, unless Scotland gets a neutral TV news channel, those figures will not be sky rocketing up any time soon.
So we have no official YES campaign yet but we do have the unofficial NO campaign continuing on from last September, most media and the *ahem* neutral BBC/STV/SKY etc. Yet despite the weight of negativity AGAINST a second referendum/ S******h independence the poll figures for voting YES goes UP!
Surely this can only be good news to all those groups wanting a second independence referendum cause when the YES campaign does eventually start then the figure of 49% for YES will continue to RISE!
There is still a long mountain to climb but we ARE on our way to finally kicking the last remnants of Westminster’s claws out of S******d! 😀
Pretty amazing, but not quite Carling.
It is a slow haul but I think people are realising that as the supposed benefits of being Better Together are being whittled away one by one there is less and less to substance to their arguments.
If we can be 53% Yes this time next year then we will be in a strong position going into a new Holyrood parliament session.
‘The most interesting thing about those numbers is that as far as we can make out that’s the highest Yes figure Panelbase has ever returned for that question.’
Panelbase did record a lead for Yes way back in 28/08/13, though it was supposedly tainted by the order of questions.
link to tinyurl.com
It would be amusing if Yoons started quoting that poll to downplay this one.
Just a wee bit O/Tish here.
I see that the SNP have asked all their branches NOT to do any street campaigning today in light of the atrocities in Paris last night.
However over in Unionist La La land I see the branch office are out campaigning against the Tory Tax credit cuts. I can only assume that the pay of a branch office MSP does not stretch far enough to allow any of them to afford a television. If it did they would be well aware, like most people, that Labour HQ walked hand in hand with the Tories into the same voting lobby to DENY S******d the right to control tax credits! 😀
I think I know the answer to this but is there NO depths that the branch office will NOT dig down to? 😉
link to youtube.com
@Tony Little “So in this case the YES vote could actually be 46% or 52% but only in 5% of surveys”
Not quite. In 5% of the surveys the YES could be 46% or less, or 52% or more. In 95% it will be between 46% and 52%. But also (don’t know the figure without my uni stats books – still in the attic), in say 90% of the surveys it will be between 48% and 50%, or in 60% of the cases between 48.5% and 49.5%.
Something like that, the actual ranges I’d have to look up tables. And that attic – help – I’m not going in there 🙂
It’s extremely reassuring that this and other polls show a ‘solid’ and ‘steady’ increase in support. It’s also clear that there is no ‘settled will of the Scottish people’ to remain in the UK as many Unionists would like us to believe. As the Unionists grudgingly concede a few minor ‘powers’ (which I’m sure was always part of the plan anyway) to improve the Scotland Bill, I am more and more confident that the people of Scotland know that they’re being sold a pig in a poke. How does ‘Free by ’23 sound ?’
The unionists as we all KNOW do read WOS (mostly in secret) and I think many a bum will be starting to flutter with tension as the realisation starts to kick in, YES is creeping upwards in spite of the deluge of muck being thrown at the SG/SNP.
Long live the “Auld Alliance” mes amis.
@Andy A “Free by ’23”
I’m kind of hoping “All done by ’21”.
I wonder if she’ll notice any difference…
link to greenocktelegraph.co.uk
If we keep going, the ship and cargo is ours.
hmmm very interesting thanks Rev.
i would imagine certain onions will be rooting around scratching their heads at this and wondering just what they have to do to stop us.
When the reality is they cant once your eyes are opened there is no closing them again.
When you consider we really havnt been campaigning and they have with all their SNP bad guff 4% is pretty awesome ,wait until after May that will be the most interesting poll once we yessers get back out there doing what we do best telling the people the truth 🙂
This’ll be the new Bugger (the Pirate Panda) then
Well, we are fighting against a deeply ingrained dependency culture – but we need to get there before the Tory tactic of negating the oil money and bankrupting Scotland works..
I don’t understand all your whingeing and wafting.
The powers given to us in the Scotland Bill make Scotland a towing intellectual and progressive nation. If you would only listen to our Westminster masters you’d know we’re independent now in all but name:
Call Pest Control: link to wp.me
Once they all see that everything they said that would happen if you voted yes, is now happening even though they got the no vote. Surely they will see that Westminster cannot be trusted to look after scottish interests in a fair and honest manner.
They will start to see sense and realise that the only way is independence for Scotland to go forward to prosper and grow.
Not only but also, at the present annual drop-off rate of readership of the Daily R***** It will cease to have ANY readers in only 9 years.
It lost 24,000 in the last year.
227 odd thou down to 203 odd.
O/T A request, does anyone know of a site listing produce of Scotland, I don’t mean food, drink, oil etc as broad brush strokes.
Something more detailed, tennis raquet strings, thorn needles for shellac records, model engines, steam hammers, butterfly breeding, software, pharma. I’m sick and tired of being told we are too poor and don’t produce anything. Lists, people, lists. Something to put on an A5.
As others have said, too many folk haven’t seen the Tory cuts yet. Most folk just get on with their day to day lives and ignore politics until it actually affects them.
That’s the problem with the hobbled Scotland bill.
The intention is to get the Scottish Government to take the blame for the Tory cuts, when they only have the blunt tool of raising income tax to pay for everything.
It’s encouraging there is 4% swing since the referendum, but on the other hand we have since had another Tory government elected with a single MP here. Making a mockery of the vow, and penalizing Scotland.. and enough people STILL prefer that to the dignity of running our own affairs.. What will it take for these people ?
This makes me think making further progress on further devolution should be the next step. A referendum on real home rule to make progress. Until 2020 or 2021 when another referendum is most likely after Corbyn is inevitably defeated in England.
If we have a wider range of taxes devolved, some control of energy policy and broadcasting, it is at least a step forward.
Paying taxes here makes people think about where the money is going, and builds loyalty to this country.
Can’t say I’m pleased with your findings ( so far ) , I would’ve thought we would have a slight lead by now , how do we get that boulder to start to move ? I suspect you’ve got a few levers in the rest of your findings , don’t keep us waiting too long ,Rev.
Its good its going up.
Going to be an interesting few years.
Going to get quite ugly as well.
As a glass half empty person although heartening to see that there is a continual shift towards a possible yes if there was a second referendum I fear that it makes it less likely that the UK government would allow it.
If the Scottish government went ahead and held the referendum however Labour and their allied tory/UKIP/OO/and assorted nutters abstained could they scupper the result.
O/T (but a bit of light relief).
Here’s a Buzzfeed ‘what kind of Scot Are You’ test, from Stuey’s WOS twitter feed:(@30 mins ago in case I’ve posted link wrongly):
t.co/DzOB8WT3SM
Rev is a ‘Mildly Terrifying Scot’ defined as:
‘You’re stern, fierce and all powerful. If you say jump, people don’t even ask ‘how high’ in case the question annoys you. You’re also strong, reliable and amazing in a crisis. You should probably just run the country.
In short, you are an awesome force to be reckoned with.’
And so say all of us. 🙂
I am a ‘Proudly Patriotic Scot’, defined as:
‘You’re loud, proud, awesome, and probably wearing a kilt right now. Whenever you hear a Scottish song, you start to weep with pride, even if it’s that naff one by Big Country. You aren’t afraid to share your opinions on Scottish politics either, but why would you be? You rock, and so does your country.’
I’ll settle for that. 🙂
Give it a try? 🙂
@Glesca Keelie
If you find a suitable site, let us know and I’ll submit mine to it!
@Doug McG
Panelbase was one of the lower ones recently, so if it’s gone up 2% then hopefully ICM and TNS would do the same – I think both of them were YES over 50%.
When Scots start to wake up to what’s happening to English NHS , and what are the consequences for Scotland, the polls will change dramatically.
The Tories are in the process of finishing the Thatcherite process. As the effects become clear , those fooled the first time, will be among the strongest advocates for independence.
The shits about to hit the fan big time. And I mean big time. It’s just been announced 2 minutes ago in Sky breaking news that one of the terrorists that were killed passed through the Greek Islands as a refugee fleeing for their life in October.
God help us all. This is going to turn nasty.
Stephen.
And ride on time – link to scotgoespop.blogspot.co.uk
That is depressing. I hoped it would be more.
Are people really that thick/slow?
Are then results fudged to depress me?
@ bugsbunny 4:49 pm
I hope the SG and SNP MPs stand up against Westminster’s warmongering. It could boost pro-indy sentiment to significant effect.
I think, in the immediate future, there are a couple of significant factors which could affect voting intentions:
1. Scotgov’s response to the Scotland Bill. If their message is “Stronger for Scotland” then they need to be unequivocal on this or current support will begin to waver, let alone gaining more.
2. The continuing developments in Catalonia, as an indication to both sides of the argument as to what can be achieved/prevented, how and by whom.
But looking further ahead (and this isn’t saying anything new), I think there’s a real and increasingly urgent need to establish a separate infrastructure in advance so that, by the earliest possible date of another indyref, it really will be only one small step (or a series of small steps) to achieve our giant leap.
Let’s take, as an example, one of the biggest concerns people had – about their personal finances – savings, mortgages, pensions etc. Could those fears be lessened by setting up a Scottish bank? If so then setting up such an institution wouldn’t an overnight achievement by any stretch so… er… shouldn’t we be making a start?
I’m a great believer in that mindset of ‘acting like we’re already independent’ but it would sure help if there were some practical, tangible ways we could demonstrate to others that “Hey, look, we really CAN do this. We’re doing it already”.
56,014 births were registered in (Scotland in 2013)
54,700 deaths were registered in Scotland in 2013
non Scots born resident in Scotland increased by approx 230k between 2001 and 2011, approx 23k per year
Those entering the voter role naturally are more yes than no. Those leaving it naturally are more no than yes.
Those entering it through moving here are more no than yes
Can’t find any figures for those leaving.
If nothing else changes we would have a clear majority by 2021/2022.
Meanwhile, things continue to change.
It’s very fitting that WOS and Rev Stu bring in the Panelbase poll which was giving a lower result, that brings its YES up to 49%, after all the hard work from Rev and others, including the donors who funded the Poll.
And it’s very fitting that SGP and James Kelly report the poll of polls taking in that 49% from Panelbase, that brings his poll of polls to exactly 50.0% YES, 50.0% NO, for all his hard work on the polls that kept us stat-maniacs informed.
For indyref2 the magic year is 2020. Demographic changes alone by then will ensure a Yes.
I still can’t believe that 25% of Scots would vote for Scottish Labour in next year’s Holyrood election.
This surely has to be related to the “Corbyn Bounce” that they were expecting.
Once the shine wears off, it should settle down to a more plausible 15%.
From a wee conversation earlier this week. A no voting tory and his wife will vote yes in another referendum.
Reason being the tories attack on the disabled. A family member down south is relying on friends for care due to services having been cut badly.
I gathered that as he and his wife are getting on in years the worry is a future Scotgov will not be able to halt the cuts.
So you see once things begin to encroach on comfortable lives, mindsets do change.
Glad to be listed among the “alert readers” of WOS, if you think about it when we started the run up (all be it two years hence) to the referendum they were forecasting 30/70% split, then this as a starting point for the next inevitable is pretty good, only we cannot let up the pressure.
Remember opening the eyes of a no voter cannot be done by force, force only invites resistance, it has to be done by reason and evidence of which happily circumstances are providing us with plenty.
Keep on keeping on.
come on guys get your chins up nobody ever said this was going to be easy ,the most important part is staring you in the faces the momentum is still on our side,there has not been a shift the other way which shows that our core 45% has not wavered an inch.
Each day that passes another no voter goes wtf and changes to a yes and thats without us being involved in a campaign,this 4% is down to the onions telling lots of porky pies.
Can i suggest a new theme tune for the yes campaign 😉
link to youtube.com
We started the last campaign in 2011 with about 30% of Scots wanting Independence.
So, with 49% backing YES during a flat period in the political sense, is great news.
The harder the Unionist’s hit us, the more determined we become.
Bring it on.
These figures are interesting! What I WANT to know is PLEASE! WHO is still voting against Independence – where do they live? I’ve no intention of bullying, I just want to know why they still consider Scotland “too small, too stupid, too weak, too incompetent”. I want to meet them, debate, discuss, convince them that even a ‘small, stupid weak, incompetent’ independent Scotland is so much BETTER than a Scotland run by a gang of Eton schoolboys who haven’t the slightest idea how ‘normal’ people live?
Time is on our side, we just have to cool our jets, play the long game; and demonstrate we can be a nation again.
Just in:
Syrian passport found on Paris attackers body belonging to refugee who passed through Greece.
The holder of a Syrian passport found near the body of one of the gunmen who died in Friday night’s attack in Paris passed through Greece in October, a Greek Minister told Reuters.
“The holder of the passport passed through the island of Leros on the 3rd October 2015, where he was identified according to EU rules,” said Nikos Toskas, Greece’s minister in charge of Policing.
A Greek police source told Reuters that European countries had been asked to check the passport holder to see if they had been registered.
While this heavily implies that one of the gunmen came in Europe along with the refugees, Syrian passports are known to be valuable currency among those trying to enter Europe, and it is not yet confirmed whether the holder of the passport is indeed the perpetrator.
As clear as mud then.
Stephen.
I think it is very encouraging to see the rise in the Yes intentions after us losing the referendum and then the non-stop barrage of SNPbad from the media.
My main concern is that, when the polls show a consistent lead for Yes, and when we call a new referendum, Westminster will merely say that the opposition should ignore it and boycott it as it is illegal without their agreement. I think they would be wrong and that the Sovereignty of the Scottish people is all that matters.
So, in order to make a future referendum legal, every future SNP manifesto should say ” We reserve the right to call a referendum on independence at a time of our choosing”, then the people can choose to accept or reject that manifesto, and there can be no doubt that it will be the will of the people if a majority vote SNP.
I think that would work, but I would like to hear other opinions.
@Philip Allan
Very few, practically none of the NO voters I talked to during the Ref, or after, thought Scotland was “too small, too stupid, too weak, too incompetent”.
They had their reasons, good ones to them at the time.
2014: 45%
2015: 49%
At this rate then, all being considered is this really possible? Hope so.
2016: 53%
2017: 57%
2018: 61%
2019: 65%
2020: 69%.
If we can start with over 2/3rds of Scots backing Independence in 2020, then surely we would have at least 51% Yes vote in Independence 2? Taking into account the months of lies by Unionist MP’s, the MSM and especially BBC.
Let’s disband the BBC shortly after Independence.
Stephen.
@Glesca Keelie says:14 November, 2015 at 4:35 pm
“O/T A request, does anyone know of a site listing produce of Scotland”
Try link to makeworks.co.uk
or link to en.wikipedia.org
all from Googling “list of scottish manufacturers”.
Google is your friend 🙂
@john king 3.27
Assuming u are correct about the 37% – that only amounts to 12% of the electorate. It also means that this if group could be identified (record readers?) they could be targeted in a different way- what is it they want? What motivates them?
Slowly slowly catch the monkey.
The SNP under Nicola is playing a very solid, steady game, whilst Westmonster and its lachies are like heedless chickens, they don’t even understand what is happening in Alba!
I want more than anything for Scotland to be its own master but if I don’t get to see it then so be it. So long as my kids get the benefits from running their own country, I’ll settle for that. Patience friends keep your eye on the target. Tic Toc the end is in sight.
Support is still climbing,slowly,but still climbing.
@ Glesca Keelie
This may be a reasonable place to start: link to realscience.org.uk
My question would be, what is it some voters think they are voting for?
Take the 25% apparently intent on voting Labour. Why? Given the complete and total lack of policy and direction, what is it this one in four think they are opting for?
55% voted in Sept14 to give Scotland Tory government more often than not. Is that what all these people realised they were voting for? Almost certainly not.
There ARE Scots who feel loyal to London and its way of viewing the world. They believe in Tory philosophy. It is what they want, by conscious choice. Fair enough, that’s democracy.
But what about the other 30-40% of NOs – what do they want?
Truth is, I haven’t got a clue. But I do think the YES side need to find out what drives their decisions!
@john king says: 14 November, 2015 at 3:27 pm
” … Until we either get rid of these brain dead idiots or force them to take a lesson from Gordon Mackintyre Kemp or someone WE ARE FUCKED!”
Ach! John, The first thing you must realise is that we will never be rid of that section of the population you speak of. They exist now, they always have and they always will. I shop stewarded for over 15 years as official steward and many more as an unofficial link to a handful of official stewards who didn’t work in the workshop I was employed in.
The situation was in the Radar, Radio and Sonar Workshop in Rosyth Dockyard. The workshop was on the edge of the main yard. It had a mixed workforce so there were several different unions involved but only one union with enough members to have a steward.
So the then EETPU dealt with everyone within the workshop and passed on any necessary work to the other union’s stewards.
So I had a mixed bunch of members from highly intelligent people doing high level diagnostic, electronic testing and tuning work to people who swept the floors and every kind of work in between.
Union work, done properly, means a lot more than just attending meetings and passing on information in two directions. It involves dealing with people’s most personal details.
You attend to those on sick leave, accident victims and those with dire personal troubles and you must often visit members in their homes, hospitals and even attending their funerals and helping their spouses and family. You thus spend time in other people’s homes and see their way of life.
It is, in itself, an eye opening education, much of it you wouldn’t care to pass on to anyone as it is confidential. However, here are a few observations. Some people just do not read, watch or listen to news programmes. If they come on their radio or TV they switch channels. There are Daily Record buyers who do not even read the front page – immediately turning to the Horse/dog racing pages then to the football and sports pages. These may, though read the Celeb Scandal pages.
There are others who can name you every number in the top 50 pop songs, every member of every pop band and every actor in every film or soap opera but who do not know who the Prime minister or first minister is. Note the reports of Labour voters who do not even know who Kezia Dugdale is or what she does for a living.
Some are pretty much illiterate, innumerate and, while far from being daft, just have never seen the need to learn anything whatsoever. Probably just self cantered and lazy as sin. Someone else has always attended to them since they popped out of the womb.
@JimF
“The most important thing is that each factory fabricates work for other people, or provides facilities for them to make and manufacture themselves. “
Which disqualifies me – and most other small manufacturers / workshops / crafts /.
And wiki is LARGE companies.
Ah well
Wake up Yessers.
Nicola Sturgeon has effectively said that she’ll call indyref2 when we can win.
What that means is this – she’s already fired the starting gun for an ongoing, rolling Yes2 campaign. But it’s a three-step process:
– 1) build support up to 55-60%
– 2) call the referendum
– 3) win the referendum
We’re currently in phase 1. Until we complete phase 1, we ain’t going anywhere. We have more people who are more passionate about Yes than No have. Most of them have their heads in the sand hoping this has all gone away. Let’s not wait around for Nicola to call an indyref, let’s keep gently Yessing our friends, family, colleagues and neighbours on a daily basis.
OT
scotland.org used to have a self-register directory but doesn’t any more.
That’s the problem for businesses like mine, and many thousands of other Scottish businesses – not really supported at all by Scottish Enterprise or other resources, online – or offline (except exporting which is – patchy and at times good or bad locally).
In most revolutions the mass of people are led by a radical minority. Scotland is not experiencing a revolution but rather a quick evolution – not quick enough for some, I know – which is being heavily influenced by pro-indy sites like WOS.
The lumbering mass can suddenly speed up; usually after a significant event occasioned [accidentally or not] by either establishment reactionaries or radical revolutionaries. At the moment the reactionaries are doing the occasioning, primarily through its contempt for Scotland in the passage of the Scotland Bill.
More influencial occasions are likely to be the results of the austerity cuts and possibly the result of the EU referendum. The SNP has a chance to induce an occasion of its own when Holyrood debates the Scotland Bill.
I am quite happy for Scotland to continue along the quick-evolutionary track – as long as momentum is continued. So far so good. Peaceful revolution, however, must not be ruled out. Either way I believe the mass of people will follow us.
It’s about in line with what I expected. Actually, quite positive I reckon.
The following are real reasons why some of my colleagues voted No.
– Alex Salmond is fat.
– Alex Salmond is evil.
– Wee Dave downstairs is voting yes and he’s an idiot. I’m voting no.
– I hate change.
– My family always voted Labour, and they told me to vote no.
– I heard on the radio I should vote No.
– I hate politics so I’m voting No.
– My Mum’s English, I’m voting No.
Bearing in mind many of these people are professional, middle earner types, I was surprised when we actually got to 45%.
In early September I overheard many conversations on trains and buses all with similar attitudes.
These same folk have no idea about current political affairs and probably never will. I asked a no voter yesterday what he thought of the Scotland Bill and he had no idea what I was on about.
Will there ever be a way to win these types over? No matter how well reasoned our argument is, how do you get these types of people to see outside their wee bubble?
Don’t get me wrong, this site is an absolute goldmine and I couldn’t live without it. But, they’ll never read WOS. They’ll never turn off the news or put down the Daily Record.
And those are the people we need to convince, IMO.
“Don’t get me wrong, this site is an absolute goldmine and I couldn’t live without it. But, they’ll never read WOS.”
Obviously. The point of Wings is to arm people with the info they need to talk to people face to face.
Being one of those old gits that can remember 79 my worst fear was a repeat performance,this has not happened so i am off out to get totally miraculous and celebrate down my local pub,where i might even convert another no voter to yes.
now where did i put my jacket 🙂
We are starting at a significantly higher base, once a campaign kicks in i see no reason for this not to turn into fifty five percent plus.We have 115000 members thats a huge advantage when it comes to any campaign and who are going to show face and campaign for the union?
Turnout in the referendum was 84.6% a record for Scotland.
However:
“Turnout reached 91% in East Dunbartonshire, 90.4% in East Renfrewshire and 90.1% in Stirling.
But participation was lower in some of the key areas where the Yes campaign was relying on support in large numbers, including Glasgow (75%) and Dundee (78.8%).”
link to archive.is
East Dumbartonshire 38.8% Yes 61.2% No
East Renfrewshire 36.1% Yes 63.2% No
Stirling 40.2% Yes 59.8% No
Glasgow 53.5% Yes 46.5% No
Dundee 57.4% Yes 42.6% No
Who are the most motivated to vote, it would seem from the figures that those supporting No are. Why?
What of the 15% that didn’t bother to vote, would they be likely to vote Yes or No? I’d love to know the demographics of those choosing not to vote, I suspect that most are potential Yes voters lacking knowledge.
1 in 7 can’t be arsed, that’s a lot of votes, supporters of Independence need to target these people, I believe it will be easier to persuade a non voter into voting Yes than a No voter into changing their mind.
It’s very unfortunate that we cannot rely on our media in any way. Leaving us that are committed to do it by ourselves.
Amazingly turnout on the first Quebec referendum in 1980 was almost identical to Scotlands at 85.6%.
The No vote won convincingly by a 59.56 percent to 40.44 percent margin.
The second Quebec referendun in 1995 featured the largest voter turnout in Quebec’s history 93.52%.
The No vote won narrowly by 50.58 percent to 49.42 percent.
The more we can convince those that didn’t vote to do so next time, I believe will give the Yes side the greatest chance of victory. The sooner we get started the better.
Let’s do it.
@yesindyref2 says:14 November, 2015 at 6:34 pm
“scotland.org used to have a self-register directory but doesn’t any more”
Start one. These things grow, just like the on-topic poll.
Steady as she goes. Much as we would all like, we just cannot rush this. I’ve always likened our indy movement to an oil tanker: It ain’t going anywhere fast but once it’s on the move nothing can stop it. 🙂
2020 vision (that’s the year)!
Toryboy world tweets
CCHQ Press Office ?@CCHQPress Nov 12
Time for @SNP to stop whining and get on explaining how powers can be used and paid for. #smith #devodelivered
link to itv.com …
But what are the powers dear imperial masters?
Or is just asking our imperial masters stuff like that whining?
First thing, it looks like the poll was based on a sample of 100 people. Pretty useless really when you think how easy it would be to affect the outcome (manipulate 5 people and you’d get a dramatically different outcome).
More serious political polls would sample 1000 people at least. As a rule, the smaller the sample, the more likely your methodology and bias will influence the result.
That said, polls generally (and this one in particular, I’d say, since it’s based on such a small sample) are most useful in showing direction of travel rather than a definitive measure of wider feeling.
If you look at the direction of travel here, t’s consistent with the pace and trajectory that showed up in polls during the summer and into the autumn of 2014.
Finally, if the direction of travel continues at this pace, it means you would expect support for yes to reach 60% in about 5 or 6 years. That’s a big “if” but who is to say the pace will not increase?
P.S. Political polls generally have a 3% margin of error. I don’t know why, it seems like an arbitrary figure. I haven’t been involved in survey methods in about 20 years but I remember there was an exact formula for determining the standard deviation (margin of error) based on variables falling within a certain range, likelihood and distance of outliers, etc.
First thing, it looks like the poll was based on a sample of 100 people
What leads you to that conclusion?
After this poll..
The tricks will get dirtier, the spin
will become fantasy and the barrel of
credibility will be scraped to
oblivion by the unionists.
I’m guessing it was 100. A few of the panelbase polls last year were 100, if I remember right. Might be getting mixed up with Ashcroft’s.
If it was conducted after the debate on Monday night and the results are here already it suggests it was small.
You know the numbers?
Scot Goes Pop and Prof Curtice’s polls of polls are now sitting 50:50.
@Thepnr
Your research highlights an important issue. We need to get every Yes supporter to become a Yes voter. If that differential turnout could be closed, then we win!
O/T
yesindyref2
Have you tried the BNI?.
Worked great for my boss with a small business.
I welcome this result. The good news is that, not only is Yes holding up, Yessers are not being intimIdated, fooled or persuaded they were wrong….but Yes is growing stronger without any formal campaign and before the working tax credit cuts hit, or the next huge cuts and attempted destruction of our welfare state is announced by Osborne in the next few weeks.
My experience of talking to No voters, the pensioners who remember the days before the welfare state, national health service when their families couldn’t afford a doctor or medicine, feel they owe a huge debt to Labour and Labour still reap the rewards today. They consider they owe their health and pensions to Labour and fail to recognise or understand how much these are under threat. They also remember sheltering from bombs during the war, in the underground and many have no doubt grown up traumatised by that experience, which increases the importance of the welfare state for them. They do not understand that the Labour Party they owe their allegiance to, no longer exists!! C’mon, Anas Sarwar, Magritte Curran, Kezia Dugdale etc etc! They only see the image of Labour fed to them by the BBC.
As for the younger age groups, their main concern is for mortgages and whether they can continue to pay them. We need to be able to come up with reassurance and firm evidence Indy Scotland will support the needs and aspiration of these groups ……then we will hit 70per cent support.
A gradual move in the right direction.
Straw in the wind:
I occasionally receive parcels delivered to the door. The saltire flies in the garden and the car parked in the drive carries the Yes sticker.
The last two delivery drivers have both given the flag and the sticker the thumbs up, keen to talk about independence and, what is really encouraging, they were both very well informed and Wings readers!
Support is undoubtedly growing.
A more right wing Independence supporting party would split the Tory/Labour Unionist vote in Scotland.
Some of the SNP policies on Welfare and immigration don’t have universal appeal.
It’s hard for the SNP to claim the left vote and to appeal to the ‘aspirational’ types as well.
Also in five years time there will simply be less No voting elderly around.
I’m quite impressed by that result taking into account the oil situation (Better Together were right) and the fact that most people have no idea that the price of oil will rise, the majors are falling over themselves to get licenses and there have been recent oil field finds.
We’re just 6 months into a 5 year stint with the Tories: the Party who may actually win one election after another. There’s got to come a point when many no voters will say enough is enough. Many of the aforementioned of course come from the better off section of Scottish society so benefit cuts wont bother them however pulling out of the EU (if it happens), repealing the Human Rights Act and pushing through the Surveillance Bill etc etc may make a difference?
I note that some people have mentioned 2020 as a possible date for running a successful Referendum. Well I hope it will happen long before then. Four years is a very long time in Tory Rule terms. How much more damage will / can they do over that period of time? Damage, such as high levels of unemployment, that may ultimately put people off voting yes. And of course we have the on-going situation of dealing with many elderly rUK residents relocating to Scotland (74% voted no). The number of such persons relocating is rising, year on year, so the sooner we see that figure of 49% rise to around 60% the better.
I see that the poll was carried out in the period ‘during and after the Scotland Bill debate’ so wonder if it was finalised before the recent HMRC job losses were announced? If so that may have made a difference to the figures.
I’m going to stick my neck out and make a long term prediction.
I reckon 5 years after Indy, the majority of those who voted No in IndyRef2 are going to look back and wonder why they feared self determination whereby Scots run Scotland.
Of course, there will always be some who will mourn the passing of their beloved United Kingdom. Tough, the rest of us will know we live in a better country.
Is the slow rate of progress The BBC Effect……… Where Any SNP failing is magnified, combined with news of the Crumbling UK being downplayed or concealed. Probably slowing movement towards Independence is all Westmonster can hope for from the damaged hulk on Pacific Quay……… Let’s Speed it up.!
I would actually prefer it if the ‘No’ voters take their time over switching to ‘Yes’. The more time they take, the more likely it will be that they remain in favour of Independence. Three or four years should be enough.
Rev, what was the sample size in the survey, please?
Alan Roden ?@AlanRoden Nov 13
The Union Dividend: Official Treasury figures reveal every Scot received £1,700 more than the English last year.
Far right UKOK types like Daily Heil neo fascists love their union because, Scots “receive” more than the English. Near 50% YES is pretty amazing considering.
In trying to understand toryboy world, isn’t that scrounger Scotland region counterintuitive to everything hard line toryboy’s live by?
We want to change all of that UK subsidising us stuff and run our own economy at least? Shutup scrounger and thieves, stay with us, we love you and want to keep you £1,700 better off than England.
and
Stephen Daisley ?@JournoStephen Nov 10
The image on the left is cybernats on MP expenses. The image on the right is cybernats on rise in MSP allowances.
Two photos, one packed Commons, other empty Holyrood.
Scrounger and thieving sweaties meme keeps a coming from red and blue toryboys.
What might change this parasite sweaty sock stuff, spat at Scotland by toryboys?
And finally… toryboy unionists like this dude must be wondering how hard they have to scream “you’re too poor, small and very very stupid” at Scotland before Scotland finally stops trying to shake off toryboy rule, once and for all
Kevin Hague ?@kevverage Nov 12
Should the SNP take me up on my offer of free tutoring on GERS & our relative deficit to their MPs and MSP’s?
Its just as well there’s no oil left.
Slow and sustained is actually better. The core vote becomes stabilised whereas a sudden emotive swing can collapse under a sustained propaganda attack.
A strong core vote hits a tipping point that leads to more people selling the idea. The pub / room /office / bus has more and more people talking in a positive manner. Ever more people will go online looking for information.
I’m delighted with the vote increasing and look forward to the next referendum.
Remember many people campaigned for decades to put us in the position of getting this chance. They kept going when the support for Independence was in single figures and the media dominated with huge circulations in a world without the internet. In a lot of cases they didn’t even get the chance to see Holyrood established, never mind independence. They only dreamed of a party of independence in power.
Talk to someone who joined the SNP 50 years ago when they picked a handful of seats to fight hoping to move up to 3rd or 4th place. What if they had got disheartened by progress.
Clootie says:
14 November, 2015 at 8:05 pm
Slow and sustained is actually better. The core vote becomes stabilised whereas a sudden emotive swing can collapse under a sustained propaganda attack.
or collapse under a sustained propaganda attack, supported in the final hours by a fake vow!
Good point.
It’s got to be SNP/SNP in 2016 and then vote out those Unionist Councillors in 2017.
The more Unionist’s we can silence, the less Unionist propaganda will be heard over the airwaves.
It really works.
When was the last time you heard anything from Murphy or The Alexander Brothers?
It’s reassuring to see it rising, but I still think the methodology used does not provide an accurate picture. Lord Ashcroft’s poll pre GE2015 was carried out to constituency level and provided a much better guide to the voting intentions, but even that poll underestimated the actual results.
Any number of events could provide a substantial boost to a yes campaign, coupled with the steady increase. I believe in reality that we are sitting around the 54% mark. By 2017, we will be over 60%, although the polls will not show that margin.
When campaigning starts in earnest, support could snowball. Reaching out to the missing 15% who didn’t vote at the last referendum may pay some dividends, although I would imagine that a fair percentage of that group are completely detached from society, let alone politics.
@Bugsbunny
How convenient of them to find a passport. Just the thing your average terrorist makes sure he takes with him on a suicide mission. Looks a bit similar to the video I saw last week of the knife which suddenly appeared at the side of a dead Palestinian, shot by Israeli soldiers.
Several comments on a couple of French sites I looked up last night were pointing to evidence of False flag operations. The passport find fits the bill.
Bear in mind Cameron only agreed to the referendum because he thought Yes had such a mountain to climb that the near-certain defeat would crush both the cause of independence and the SNP, not just “for a generation” but for ever. I agree that slow build of conviction and confidence will worry the Brits far, far more than emotion-driven (and do easily-countered) swings.
Here’s that vote NO you lucky scrounger meme again. Only bums and toryboys think scrounging is fine, for their Scotland region
link to capx.co
“The fact is Scotland enjoys a very fair deal inside the Union. Although there are pockets of considerable poverty inside Scotland, it’s a relatively prosperous part of the UK and gets about as much money out of the rest of the UK as it puts in. I suspect as its population ages (its demographic trends are more fiscally challenging than southern England) and the oil revenues from the North Sea decline it will increasingly rely on the rest of the UK to help pay its bills – as it did during the financial crash of the big Edinburgh banks. I, personally, make no complaint about that at all.”
Which is it, fair UKOK deal or £1.700 hand out from England?
Usual Project Fear stuff though, no oil, OAP’s threaten to bust the bank, banks are Scottish, when they crash, England saved them for you sweaties, be grateful and loyal, together we achieve so much for 300 years, but only under toryboy right to reign over you, forever.
Tim Montgomerie is a columnist for the The Times, a Senior Fellow at Legatum Institute and co-founder of the Centre for Social Justice
Legatum Institute
link to li.com
Prosperity for All was launched by The Rt. Hon. George Osborne, MP, Chancellor of the Exchequer, at the Legatum Institute on Wednesday, 4 November 2015.
George Osborne certainly restored faith in Capitalism when he flogged the Royal Mail to his toryboy chums half price, which we all thought we owned.
Do the far right really know just how full of shit they are?
The poll is unequivocally positive. It shows the momentum continues with more people getting on board.
And remember, once you dump labour and see through their lies, you never go back. Everybody I know who dumped Labour walks away hating them and hating themselves for ever supporting them. It’s quite unique that, in historical terms.
Also, the poll suggests Corbyn has not had the desired effect up here. That’s key.
What’s the most important thing in the entire world to pensioners (I’m not talking about us lot on here) MONEY!!!
The thought of that particular group of people losing any of their lovely Moolah or spending too much of their (we paid in ) money makes them very angry and they will vote for anybody who pays them more or at least keeps them the same
The Labour pensioner is now no longer any use to the Tories, particularly in Scotland,
Next year the planned cuts are Winter fuel allowance and probably the Bus Pass
The SNP have said no matter what happens, the Bus Pass in Scotland stays, but the Winter fuel allowance is a whole other thing they wont be able to compensate for
Once our nations Grandparents start realising their wee Christmas extra spend might be vanishing, ask them then what they’ll vote
I think you’ll start hearing things like “Well ahve been listenin tae that Sturgeon Lassie and ahm thinkin noo She’s awright hur, a definitely um beginnin tae waarm tae ur, ah mean, Labours hud thur turn noo time fur sumbday else”
Now I’m not saying all pensioners are money fickle but…
Yes I am
@Rob James
“Reaching out to the missing 15% who didn’t vote at the last referendum may pay some dividends, although I would imagine that a fair percentage of that group are completely detached from society, let alone politics.”
I would not disagree in any way with your assertion. Why might it be that they are they “detached from society”?
If I had nothing to look forward to when I waken up in the morning I guess I’d be detached too. Why though does it have to be this way that 1 in 7 can be written off in an affluent society?
Our politicians have got it wrong, they need to do better.
I mean bedroom tax, tax credits, workfare, benefit sanctions? To pay for what, an increase in the inheritance tax allowance or a brand new aircraft carrier or Trident submarine?
Robin Hood in reverse and it is inbred, they know nothing else.
Regarding the BBC, did anyone see this on a ‘Scottish Six’ ?
link to theguardian.com
—–
But the plan is encountering substantial resistance from BBC executives in London, who are wrestling with heavy budget cuts of around £700m, and continuing demands from rivals and the UK government to trim output and find further efficiencies.
Sources with knowledge of the discussions said extra funds for news and current affairs were being channelled towards other projects, including a beefed up Korean service. One source said the proposal “was met with laughter” by executives in London.
But BBC officials have confirmed that several proposals for a Scottish Six type programme are being debated and are likely to be finalised in early 2016 after Gary Smith, BBC Scotland’s new head of news and current affairs, takes up his post in January.
Options include a direct replacement for the BBC1 Six O’Clock news or a standalone programme which could air on BBC2 Scotland in the early evening. The BBC’s current regional news programme Reporting Scotland on BBC1 would be heavily cut back.
—–
So much for a regular BBC Scotland TV channel – There is even resistance for a normal news program.
If there is little progress, or we get some cut-back offering on BBC 2, then they are just taking the piss. The gloves should come off.
At least partial control over broadcasting should have been in the Scotland bill as viewers here are taxed for it.
I think we need to see the SNP run on an upgraded devolution platform in the short term, including broadcasting. It keeps the forwards momentum.
Unless we see good movement in the polls, a second indyref seems unlikely before 2020 because of:
1: Respect for last years vote.
2: Current oil price isn’t helpful.
3: Waiting for more younger voters.
4. Waiting for Corbyn to get the boot by middle England.
5: EU vote out of the way.
6: Hopefully control of more councils.
We need to get the Scotland bill beefed up, or we are stuck in a trap where income tax is supposed to pay for everything, and possibly stuck with the same old BBC.
@Angra Mainyu
He doesn’t answer opinionated arseholes try 1074 as an knowledgeable guess.
With a Tory majority government which doesn’t care about Scotland, 51% would still vote No.
Are they that stupid?
I am sure there are other websites more than willing to accommodate discussions about things like Paris, Op Gladio, gulf of Tonkin, Boston, sandy hook etc, (I could go on) so please, let’s stick to the subject matter.
Spot on Dr. Jim,
When you are no longer able to earn your pension/s are the only thing/s keeping the wolf from the door. I am retired and fairly comfortably off but I do have a social conscience. I have also wanted indy since 1967.
I think the next campaign has to promise to raise the OA pension by at least .5% over the triple lock until we are on a par with the best pensions in Europe/the World.
David White says:
14 November, 2015 at 6:48 pm
It’s about in line with what I expected. Actually, quite positive I reckon.
The following are real reasons why some of my colleagues voted No.
– Alex Salmond is fat.
– Alex Salmond is evil.
– Wee Dave downstairs is voting yes and he’s an idiot. I’m voting no.
– I hate change.
..
It’s sad just how thick some folks are when it comes to politics. Or how easily manipulated by the papers.
The one I heard a few times was “But how could we afford to set up our own NHS ?” ..
The way I see it, that is one of the benefits of further devolution as a stepping stone.
It will turn more people into tax experts.
It will result in more people considering where the money goes.
If their income tax is staying in Scotland and paying for schools and hospitals here, then why not other taxes ?
“I think the next campaign has to promise to raise the OA pension by at least .5% over the triple lock until we are on a par with the best pensions in Europe/the World.”
Struggling to see how we can do that until we reverse the exodus of young workers out of Scotland and we have control of immigration,
cart and horse kinda thing.
If ever there was an example of ‘glass half empty/full?’, this thread is it.
Come on people, FFS, get a grip – six months from now the Labour party in Scotland will have forever vanished down the u-bend and the next round of cuts will be biting.
The trend is obvious, and ain’t reversing anytime soon. As someone said earlier, ‘chins-up’. 🙂
John, when we are independent we will have full control of immigration and everything else.
I would hope our very enthusiastic young people would prefer to stay in Scotland, especially if they were helping to build a better nation.
Also their parents may encourage them to stay as many of us, myself included, have lost a young person to London.
Current oil price is good for Scotland long term.
Leave the stuff down there.
Find more of it.
Develop technology.
Build in state funding for engineering.
Watch price rise.
Drill.
Grow the economy.
When the oil runs out, we cash in our
savings and diversify.
@cynicalHighlander
“He doesn’t answer opinionated arseholes”
I tend not to myself but I occasionally make exceptions. So, here goes.
(BTW, I tried to be wholly positive about the poll before and wanted to avoid rattling cages but if I’m to be branded an opinionated asshole then I might as well be an honest one)
The poll suggests we are screwed with Devo-Max, FFA, or whatever the hell you want to call it, the best we could realistically hope to achieve.
That better for you, cynicalHighlander?
If another indyref was held tomorrow, 49% would vote Yes, 51% No”
I would like to see by whom and how these figures were arrived at
However I believe that they mean that we would win another referendum convincingly. We did start the last referendum campaign from a figure of support in the low 30s and we have a vastly bigger and better support now than we had then
I posted the below on the last topic but I should have waited for this one
You can’t make stupid people wise. But you can effect their behaviour rather more easily than you can effect the behaviour of clever or well informed people.
I think it was George Bush who said “You can fool some of the people all of the time and those are the ones we should concentrate on”
How right. And that was the Better Together campaign in a nutshell. And we were wrongfooted by it.
It goes without saying that structured, detailed and logical arguments can very often have little effect on the slow of thinking and senseless soundbites delivered by organs they trust to tell them the truth can have as much or more effect.
This explains the damaging effect of the Record, The Express and the Mail (and I suspect the collapsing sales of the Scotsman and now the Herald which have been insulting the intelligence of their fairly clued up subscribers for some time now).
There are a number of ways of dealing with this.
If it can be widely established that only fools and idiots believe for instance the guff about oil revenues and Scotland being subsidised then nobody will want to be seen believing such because the last thing a fool wants is to be recognised as a fool.
It is a matter of how to deal with a range of different perceptions by a range of different approaches.
This we failed to do. I am confident that the vast majority of well informed Scots support independence (though some perfectly legitimately still want to be Brits). We did not deal at all with the others to which the scaremongering and lies were continuously and fruitfully targetted.
There was no attempt whatsover by Better Together to present a constructive case for the union. They merely aimed exclusively at their target audience of the ill informed,the vulnerable and easily scared. And it mostly worked.
The SNP want to wait until there is a clear majority for a Yes vote, but how will WM react to this situation? Bearing in mind the fright they got the last time.
If they feel the game could be up they will agree to a referendum with conditions attached: a percentage vote (as in 1979), different wording (making the indy side a No) to give two examples. Then if the SNP refuse, they can accuse them of being scared.
Also if we do gain our independence, don’t be surprised at attempts at some form of sabotage or partition, aided and abetted by Scottish unionists. They won’t let us go easily.
Fear is one of the most powerful emotions known to man and as such is used by gangsters, police, security services, employers, and GOVERNMENTS.
Fear is what holds back the majority of no voters especially the elderly no voters who are terrified of loosing their pensions and benefits. Don’t forget most of us OAPs were brought up to believe in the Royalty the Empire and the Colonies. We were told that Westminster would look after us from cradle to grave.
England (Londinium) the establishment decided to look after themselves and ditch the pretence of a United Kingdom except for tax gathering purposes, they are the thieves we are the victims. They are the scum of the earth.
The kindly establishment spend £1700 on each of us scroungers more than they spend on English scroungers. Where does that sh*t come from. Where does all the money they bastards have taken from Scotlands oil go, where does it show up on the books or does it.
Angra
It is only a poll. There will be more to come. No point getting excited .
The Elections next year will be a better benchmark. Who knows what will have happened by then. Will Cameron have concocted a EU deal or be undermined -by his own Tories wanting out. That will influence electors here. Will Corbyn still be around? Will Kezia be undermined by Baillie over nukes? Will Osborne outsmart his competitors in waiting?
As for devo max etc – consigned to history. Independence is the only option in town.
As I said more polls to come
@Angra Mainyu says:
I’m guessing it was 100. A few of the panelbase polls last year were 100, if I remember right. Might be getting mixed up with Ashcroft’s.
That is what I was inferring to treating Panelbase as if they were a tinpot polling organisation and worse still again inferring that the Rev would use such an organisation for political ends. Only an arsehole would leave that impression in the public eye when these things can be ascertained by doing your own research.
Hamish100 at 10.52
“As for devo max etc – consigned to history. Independence is the only option in town.”
Exactly. And our people know it. Another plus is that the old resigned sigh ” It’s no a bad idea, but we’ll never get it/they won’t give us it” is consigned to history. They now know they only have to vote for it.
I sense also a very significant sea change. There are many more people who never questioned it before now actively dislike Westminster rule.
We seem to have more than our share of frightened sheep!
I always thought that 2021 would be our soonest opportunity
For making the correct decision on our Independence.
I’d also like to think the relocation of 2,000 Scottish HMRC
Jobs would see us leading in that same poll, if taken today
Hi peeps.
Rev. Stuart Campbell says:
“Obviously. The point of Wings is to arm people with the info they need to talk to people face to face.”
And that’s what we are thankful for – the exposure and dissection of pi$h, that arms us.
Thank you, Rev Stu!
DeValera
I agree that the SNP should wait until there is a clear polling majority, but there is no necessity to wait for permission from anybody to have the poll.
All the SNP need to do is to clearly state in every manifesto that they intend to have a referendum at a moment of their choosing. Then, if the people keep voting for them, they have a clear mandate to do so.
Simples
49%….mmm a bit less than i expected, but ill take it
people who go from no to yes, dont go back again
we need 62% ie 2.25 million votes, we are about 1.8 million at the moment, maybe a bit more.
why? the unionist only agreed to the ref1 because they were sure they would win. these figures today mean that we could win, so they wont agree or even take part. 2.25 million is 50% of the electorate. a majority regardless of how you count it even if the unionists abstain, which they will
@schrodingers cat
Heh, there’s more than one route bunny cat.
As the caption says, in a year when oil isn’t at its best and with all attendant hype, the vow has tanked, 4% is quite a remarkable shift. Bear in mind we’ve also been on the receiving end of a ramped up project fear via the media and HMG has done its damnedest to tar, smear and belittle the SNP representation, its actually fairly impressive.
How and ever:-
link to wingsoverscotland.com
Not only can Westminster not prevent Scots holding a referendum, its not the only way to get the job done. People simply need to specifically mandate/demand an action of the Scottish government. 🙂
According to Wiki, Sevco Rangers (SR) have “an estimated 1.4 million supporters in Scotland alone.”
More than 4.2 million people registered to vote in the independence referendum.
Now taking that 1.4m as a percentage of 4.2m, it is exactly a third ie 33.333%.
With the caveats that not all SR supporters even voted in Ref1, and that not all that did vote voted No, it would be pretty much correct to say that, still, the vast majority will have voted No.
The Orange Order(OO) claims to have a Scottish membership of 50,000. Again, with the same caveats as above, the vast majority of them will have voted No.
Even with those who did put their ‘X’ towards Yes, adding the two numbers from SO and the OO, plus other various Loyalists, SDL and Scottish Britnat nutters, the total probably did not deviate too far downwards from that initial 33.333%
And, depressingly, that percentage will not move, especially in a downward direction at any time up to and including the actual date of IndyRef2. That is just the way it is in Scotland, unfortunately.
So, that leaves the other two-thirds ie 66.666% to work with.
In IndyRef1, age groups from 16 through to 49 were Yes, while the 50 through to the 70+(especially) were overwhelmingly No. The youth of the country will eventually bring Scotland its independence. Hopefully, the numbers for Yes will have increased substantially come IndyRef2.
“Researchers found that 56.6% of women voted No while 53.2% of men voted Yes.” In IndyRef2 this will change substantially, especially the percentage of women who will vote Yes – next time Nicola Sturgeon will be the face of the Yes campaign, and she is a vote winner for all.
52.7% of native-born Scots voted Yes, which is good, but still nowhere near good enough. If we don’t a substantial percentage there we can’t really lay too much blame on non native-borns.
A huge 72.1% of voters of voters coming from the rUK: England, Wales and Northern Ireland voted No which is bitterly disappointing. In context, that 72.1% of rUK non-Scots, which numbers 420,000, means that 300,000 of them voted No. That is extremely significant in a result decided by less than 400,000 votes.
Also, voters born outwith the UK itself voted No to Scotland’s independence by 57.1%. That in itself is deeply disappointing.
Anyway, any increase in the possible percentage vote for Yes for IndyRef2 is to be celebrated. Once it goes over the 50% mark it should continue to grow exponentially.
There will always be that 33.333% against Scotland’s self-determination. When, or if, that Yes voting intention rises to anywhere near 60% the sovereign people of Scotland should let Sturgeon know, loud and clear, that the time for IndyRef2 is upon us and we want it NOW.
Skoosh I think some Sevco unionist nutjob has been at the editing on Wiki.
1.4 million Sevconians WTF from a population of 5.3 !! Surely not 🙁
cynicalHighlander, can we go back to childish name-calling, I’d rather be an “opinionated asshole”, something I can at least understand unlike this drivel;
“That is what I was inferring to treating Panelbase as if they were a tinpot polling organisation and worse still again inferring that the Rev would use such an organisation for political ends. Only an arsehole would leave that impression in the public eye when these things can be ascertained by doing your own research.”
FYI many polling companies will use samples as low as 100 and often much lower. It doesn’t indicate and I didn’t mean to suggest that the pollster is tinpot. It’s complicated and boring but there’s a distinction to be made between quantitive and qualitative surveys.
Remember you asked for this…
With qualitative surveys you are really looking to form a deeper more detailed picture of voters and their motivations so that instead of simply asking 1000 people one single question, you would ask say 100 people a bunch of questions. This would naturally give you a fuller picture of public feeling etc. across a range of issues.
If you bear all that in mind, it’s quite possible that the data Rev has presented today is derived from a qualitative survey and that he has only shown us some of the report. He suggests that might be the case but I can’t tell for sure.
If that is true, however, then it’s hard to justify attributing any value to the pinch that he has shown us in isolation of the report as a whole which would give a fuller picture. With qualitative surveys it’s often the case that taking one element out and over-analysing it gives you a misleading view of the report as a whole (you could certainly never rule that out).
Hamish, I agree, everything’s in a state of flux.
I’m not wanting to depress anyone though so I’ll shut up. There is a case for being really down about this poll though, you can look at it both ways.
It would probably make more sense if you were bipolar.
I think the sad part about the poll is this. Wm is treating Scotland like a pariah. Every piece of shit is being chucked at Scotland. Yet we are still looking at a statistical tie.
When are these no voters going to wake up and see what is happening to Scotland. What more will it take.
Thanks for taking the time Scooshcase to post such extensive research data results on here. I agree with the data, especially as I know that it can be validated, but would like to point something out. You say that ‘the youth of the country will eventually bring Scotland its Independence’. I don’t know if I agree with that. Statistics show that around 80,000 Scots leave Scotland every year. Average age 23 / 24 with many being highly educated.
That figure of 80,000 is totally overwhelmed (cancelled out) now by rUK residents relocating here, many of whom are elderly (74% voted no last year), and people from overseas as you point out also voted against Independence.
In other words young potential yes voters are leaving Scotland year after year as more and more no voters are relocating here. Recent figures (4 weeks ago) show that migration to Scotland has ‘accelerated’ and is thought to continue to accelerate dramatically over the coming years. I don’t need to hear / read about this at all. I can tell by walking down my High Street better still just listening to the News every night.
Data showed that elderly people in the main voted no. Did that mean that the Scottish born elderly, in the main, voted no because they were fearful of say losing their pensions (being left poverty stricken) or did it relate to elderly people who have relocated to Scotland, in the main wealthy (the State Pension pocket money to them), who basically want their cake and eat it … still have and always will have an allegiance to Westminster.
Whatever the case the Scottish born elderly, supposedly in the main no voters (a figure that doesn’t equate at all for me through working with hundreds of elderly people), as they pass away are going to be replaced, it would seem, by a never ending stream (torrent) of elderly people from rUK ……. population 50 million plus.
If the SNP apply last years Electoral voting criteria (rUK relocated residents, overseas relocated residents, people with holiday homes in Scotland, rUK Military personnel (note MANY Scottish soldiers have been posted overseas – only 60 out of 1000 Naval personnel, approx, at Faslane are Scots), migrant workers, short term rUK holiday makers, students and so on) to the next Referendum I don’t think we’ll have a hope in hell of winning.
We had our chance, great chance, to get out of this nightmare last year, after 300 long years of being shackled, and blew it. Blew it especially in relation to protecting hundreds of thousands of poverty stricken Scottish children. And we all know now that this number is going to rise dramatically.
With all of this data / knowledge available let’s see what happens next time round.
@Croompenstein
Re number of Sevco Rangers supporters in Scotland:
Yes, I thought that myself when I saw that number given by Wiki for Sevco Rangers supporters in Scotland: it does seem to be a hell of a lot! I didn’t know where to go to find a correct or accurate assessment, if indeed there is such a thing, or a place/website for any team never mind Sevco Rangers. Yes, I know Wiki is no guarantee of truthfulness or exactness, but it gave a number, it was the only one I had so I just went with that one!
Not sure what I feel , probably because my judgement had been so wrong last year.
The “I don’t think Scotland was ready for it yet” Or the “How can I pay my mortgage if we don’t know what currency we use”. , as for the “Servco” WTF These types/ brigade are a complete mystery to me.
We do need to be mindful of the fact most of us here are kinda up to speed with what’s going on …. It’s our life long hobby , our interest and for some our passion. Please do not forget many do not understand ,many do not even watch the news, some ain’t got a scooby!
I have been asked “What’s meant by left and right?” And many Qs like that.
I had a discussion with work colleagues a few years back political stuff and all 4 of us were 55+ and they were fairly savy in general. I commented about how I felt many folk received their pay packet and did not know how the calculations were done. “Of course they do” all 3 replied.
One of the guys lived 30 mile away and gave a lift to 3 younger types and they all trooped in about 5 pm to get their lift home.
As they arrived , after the usual greetings , I asked each one about their “Tax Code”. When I explained the it meant they paid tax on earnings above the figure ( going back a bit I think it was 760 so £7,600 ) All three were suddenly disgruntled and saying I was talking $hite.
My point is, I deduce from the Poll , despite the huge engagement of the general public during the REF clearly there are many who have not got to grips with the situation and have chosen to leave it to the rest of us.
Why would you not vote ?
Statistics on TurnOut @ elections many cant be ersed.
They genuinely blunder thro’ life in their own wee bubble. This type includes Uni educated people too.
We just need to stay positive and keep reminding ourselves that every person may require a little help and guidance to understand how poorly WM serves us.
We are merely imparting information to them.
We have an Elelction to win , so keep ‘er chappin’.
@Petra
Where do you get the figure about the large number of rUK pensioners retiring here?
I was thinking about this, in regards to the new Scotland bill.
Perhaps it would be better to pay carers more instead of having free personal care.
I don’t know if we have benefit tourism to any great extent, but we dont want to end up in a situation where that happens – if we have a high tax, high benefit society in relation to the rUK
Skoosh, most Rangers supporters I know voted YES. At least half Glasgow’s football supporting population favoured Rangers at one time. Glasgow voted YES.
@David
“If the Scottish government went ahead and held the referendum however Labour and their allied tory/UKIP/OO/and assorted nutters abstained could they scupper the result”.
Not if over 50% of the electorate voted. Imagine the camaraderie if you knew that everyone walking down the street to the polling station was voting YES. The momentum of that alone would make people want to vote. Just make sure it’s called during the summer so we can plan street parties for the whole day. ????
Obviously the SNP raison d’etre is Indy. However they have also been shown to be an effective and responsible government, governing for the whole of Scotland.
Attempting to mitigate WM policies is all very well, but their success in shielding the poorest from the worst of the cuts could ironically be their downfall. Most working people find struggling with bills etc. hard enough, without thinking where their top up benefits are coming from. WM or Hollyrood.
Labour will jump on the bandwagon and lie that they would have done the same, only more efficiently. The Tories will say “of course the SNP increased your benefits, that’s what we gave them extra powers to do, so it was really us that did it”.
The SG are stuck between a rock and a hard place. Mitigate the cuts, get no credit. Allow the cuts to happen, get the blame.
The unfortunate oversight I think a lot of you above are making is not taking into account that there is a large body of people who are perfectly comfortable with “austerity” and the U.K. Governments way of doing. They don’t care about the vow as they don’t want more powers in the first place.
It’s nieve to think these people are going to wake up and realise the’ve been duped. There’s more Tory leaning thinkers than you think!