The ginger stepchild
According to a new poll, fewer than a third of SNP voters even think independence is in the top three priorities facing Scotland.
It’s only five points ahead of immigration in fourth place, and seven ahead of housing. So it’s hardly surprising that the SNP aren’t bothering themselves about it. Their own support, like the party, is very comfortable with the way things are.
And in truth, that’s not much of a change.
Way back in November 2021, the percentage was two points lower at 29%, and indy was SNP voters’ fifth priority. (Immigration wasn’t even an option on the list four years ago, but is now a concern for over a quarter of the party’s voters.)
Support for the SNP has plunged by around a third since those heady days, but it’s clearly not because they’re failing to prioritise independence, which leaves only the party’s wretched performance in government as a plausible reason.
So we probably shouldn’t expect much difference if, as seems overwhelmingly likely, the SNP limps back into government next May with a lot fewer votes but more or less the same number of seats. The party has a strong financial disincentive to achieve independence, and its voters aren’t fussed either.
Both groups, in essence, are lying to each other. SNP voters profess their desire for independence but don’t really want anything done about it, and the party dutifully pretends to be working towards it to maintain the illusion – cherished by both the SNP and its voters – that there’s actually any difference between them and Scottish Labour.
(The only other big divergence in the poll, on Brexit, despite near-identical proportions of SNP and Labour voters voting Leave in 2016, is probably explained by the fact that Labour has lost a large chunk of support to Reform and most of it will likely be those. Although the near-total disinterest of SNP voters in crime and education is odd.)
Only the numbers tell the truth.
