Looking for someone to trust
Our poll has already established that the Scottish public is deeply sceptical of the No camp’s vague, equivocal dangling of unspecified new powers as an incentive to reject independence. But we also wanted to find out how much they believed the output of the two official campaign groups in general.
As mainly politicians are involved, you can probably guess the results.
We picked a list of eight people, four from each side, as closely corresponding to each other as possible. We had the chairmen of “Better Together” and Yes Scotland, and the directors of each campaign. Then we added some flat-out politicians.
Nicola Sturgeon and Anas Sarwar were easy choices – they represent the two biggest parties in Scotland and each leads their respective party’s referendum campaign. We were going to match up Alex Salmond with David Cameron, but in truth the PM has contributed very little to the debate so we went for the nearest thing Scotland had to a First Minister before devolution – Secretary of State for Scotland Michael Moore.
As with almost all the questions in the poll, the order in which the names were presented to respondents was random. We offered a range of four replies – “Always tells the truth”, “Mostly tells the truth”, “Rarely tells the truth” and “Never tells the truth”. We also had options for “I haven’t heard them speak about independence” and “I don’t know who they are”.
The politicians were mostly well-known, although 40% of Scottish voters had never heard of Anas Sarwar and a startling 34% didn’t know who Michael Moore was. (The figure for Alex Salmond was 4%. And goodness knows who the 7% of Scots who knew who the FM was but have never heard him talk about independence were.)
The campaign heads were much less well known – with the exception of Alistair Darling, who was unrecognised by just 8%. A slightly surprising 36% didn’t know Dennis Canavan, and the two Blairs both had a majority of Scots scratching their heads, being unknown to 55% of respondents (Jenkins) and 56% (McDougall).
Tallying each person’s positive votes against their negative ones, we found, rather disturbingly, that absolutely NONE of the eight had a net positive rating. In every single case, more people thought the candidate was (always or mostly) lying than (always or mostly) telling the truth.
Panelbase calculated a “mean score” for each one, counting the “Always” responses more strongly than the “Mostly” ones to get an overall trust rating (out of 4), and we’ve ordered the candidates below according to that mean rating, the most trusted first.
In brackets we’ve put their net truth rating, discounting the two categories of Don’t Knows and calculating “Always or mostly truthful” against “Rarely or never truthful” from the respondents who expressed an opinion one way or the other.
There was a distinct pattern to the results.
———————————————————————————————
Q: On the basis of what you’ve personally seen and heard, which of these people do you think are telling the truth about independence?
———————————————————————————————
Alex Salmond 2.4 (-3)
Nicola Sturgeon 2.4 (-5)
Dennis Canavan 2.3 (-19)
Blair Jenkins 2.2 (-31)
Alistair Darling 2.2 (-27)
Michael Moore 2.0 (-43)
Anas Sarwar 2.0 (-47)
Blair McDougall 1.9 (-62)
———————————————————————————————
Our poll found that on the mean figures all four Yes representatives were trusted more than any of the No representatives. And the combined net trust ratings of the two sides, among respondents who expressed an opinion, were Yes -58, No -179, making the No campaign slightly over three times as distrusted as Yes.
(Our sample was divided almost precisely half and half between supporters of broadly Yes parties – SNP, Green – and the broadly No parties ie Lab, Con and Lib Dem.)
The First Minister’s score is still negative, but impressive considering that a large proportion of “Better Together” campaigning to date has been focused on specifically portraying him personally as a liar. He was still mistrusted by fractionally more people than trusted him, but was nevertheless a very clear head and shoulders above everyone except his own deputy.
Blair McDougall, conversely, must be quite relieved that hardly anyone’s heard of him, because when he does speak a huge majority of the people who hear him – 81% against 19% – think he’s lying. (Extra-strangely, the worst trust ratings on the two sides are the only two people who HAVEN’T been professional politicians.)
We also asked one other question about whether people believed what they were told.
Independence supporters regularly accuse the No camp of trying to put across the notion that Scotland is “too wee, too poor and too stupid” to survive alone.
Willie Rennie recently told a debate in Edinburgh that some people on his side did indeed hold and express that view, but “Better Together” hotly disputes the allegation, and its official line is that Scotland could thrive on its own but is better off in the UK. We asked people which they believed was its true opinion.
———————————————————————————————
Q: Willie Rennie, leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats and member of the “Better Together” campaign, recently said: “I reject the arguments that some people make on my side that Scotland is too poor and too stupid. I think it’s well capable of being a vibrant, successful nation.”
Based on what your own experience of the debate, which of those two viewpoints do you think most closely represents the attitude of the “Better Together” campaign AS A WHOLE towards independence?
———————————————————————————————
They believe that Scotland is “too poor and too stupid” to be a successful independent country. 23%
They believe that Scotland could be a “vibrant, successful” independent nation, but should stay in the UK anyway. 39%
I don’t know what they believe. 38%
———————————————————————————————
An eminently spinnable outcome, then. A sizeable plurality of those who expressed a view thought that the No camp really did see Scotland as a viable independent nation. On the other hand, that plurality was well short of an actual majority of respondents, with a hefty 61% of Scots either being unable to tell or downright disbelieving them.
It’s a tricky line for “Better Together” to walk. The more they convince Scottish voters that Scotland would be a healthy independent state, the more tempting a proposition it becomes – given that we learned from the first three questions that Scottish people actually WANT independence, as long as you don’t call it that.
The word itself frightens them and sounds like an awfully big step, but if both sides keep telling them Scotland would do fine running its own affairs, the fear fades and they’re increasingly likely to start drifting in the direction they really want to go.
But if the “we cannae dae it” subtext of much No campaigning takes hold, the more depressing and miserable and negative their campaign becomes, and there are widespread signs that such an approach is already driving supporters away. It’s quite a balancing act to have to maintain for another year.
.
*All figures are rounded to the nearest whole number. Figures may not add up to exactly 100%, either due to rounding or the type of question.
It looks as if Project Fear is not having much influence as they’d hoped on how people see Scotland.
Politics, mistrust those who rejoice at it even more than those who do it.
(Tweaked quote from Victor Hugo)
could someone give me their theory on why the media are hostile to independence, i believe they are hostile to independence but dont understand why ?
As you point out remarkable “truth” figure for Alex Salmond given the constant negative, personal bile directed at him. That must be very disappointing reading to many No to Scotland people.
I personally much preferred Michael Moore when he was making US based documentaries on gun control and corporate globalisation. I find it hard to believe that 34% of respondents do not know who M.Moore is given his invaluable contribution.
(Extra-strangely, the worst trust ratings on the two sides are the only two people who HAVEN’T been professional politicians.)
Sorry, but the Chair of the No campaign is a professional politician.
“Sorry, but the Chair of the No campaign is a professional politician.”
Yes, I was counting him as one. McDougall is the director, Darling is the chair. The least trusted on each side are the campaign directors.
Sorry Rev, can you clarify how this is calculated
The number in brackets I understand (= Always + Mostly – Rarely – Never),
But how is the Mean Score calculation ?
Is that a weighted average with Always =4; Mostly = 3 ; Rarely = 2 and Never = 1 ?
So that means that 2.5 would be the mid point, and a score of 1.0 means that 100% of the people never trust you ?
“Sorry Rev, can you clarify how this is calculated
The number in brackets I understand (= Always + Mostly – Rarely – Never),
But how is the Mean Score calculation ?
Is that a weighted average with Always =4; Mostly = 3 ; Rarely = 2 and Never = 1 ?
So that means that 2.5 would be the mid point, and a score of 1.0 means that 100% of the people never trust you ?”
Yes, that’s correct. I’m just about to tweak the wording, as Panelbase say the word “weighting” might be confusing asit has a very specific meaning in polling.
David
My view is because their ownership in the main is furth of Scotland and the owners cannot seem to understand the movement for Independence.
My day has been brightened by the findings of the last two articles.
thankyou marcia, my theory is the owners have been given some kind of carrot by those who benefit most from scotlands resources, (political classes).
Hi david.
In a nutshell according to Chomsky in Manufacturing consent
(the news media) “are effective and powerful ideological institutions that carry out a system-supportive propaganda function by reliance on market forces, internalized assumptions, and self-censorship, and without overt coercion”
thankyou angus
Obviously all the information will be available once the tables are out, but would I be corrected in assuming Alex Salmond had the most Always Lying, as well as the most Always Truthful. It’ll be interesting, as it always is, to see how strength of opinion compares between Salmond and Sturgeon.
I’m actually surprised so many people have heard of Blair McDougall and Blair Jenkins. I didn’t think they’d be recognised outside of political buff circles.
“Obviously all the information will be available once the tables are out, but would I be corrected in assuming Alex Salmond had the most Always Lying, as well as the most Always Truthful. It’ll be interesting, as it always is, to see how strength of opinion compares between Salmond and Sturgeon.”
Not in percentage terms he doesn’t, no. (These are, as per the post, percentages of people who expressed an opinion one way or the other.)
“ALWAYS LYING”
McDougall 33%
Sarwar 29
Moore 25
Jenkins 25
Darling 24
Canavan 22
Salmond 20
Sturgeon 19
“ALWAYS TRUTHFUL”
Jenkins 14%
Canavan 12
Sturgeon 11
Salmond 10
Darling 3
Sarwar 2
Moore 1
McDougall 1
I don’t know if you are able to, but it would probably make more sense to have Always = 3; Mostly = 2, Rarely = 1 and Never = 0.
Why someone should get a score of 1 out of 4 just for moving their lips doesn’t stack up.
Its not particularly strange that the non-politcos are less trusted. An elected (and paid) politician has been “licensed” to lie ever since they invented party politics so mistrust comes with the territory. However people paid to lie have had a hard time of it ever since the Grub Street hacks of the end of the eighteenth century. It may be unfair on the two Blairs but if you fly with the crows you get shot with the crows.
This seems to say ‘a pox on all your houses’, as far as politicians are concerned, with the Yes side getting Chicken Pox, and the No side getting Syphilis.
4% (about 40 people) of people have never heard of Alex Salmond? Has there been a recent big increase in banana boat traffic up the Clyde or what?
I do think that this maybe surprisingly shows us that the “too wee too poor too stupid” line that we attribute to BT hasn’t been picked up as a majority view in the general public. Have things changed since the days of the shouty woman in Hamilton 1978, so more energy should be expended on exposing the growing divergence in social values and strategic political directions (on Europe, welfare, immigration, defence) ie why we shouldn’t stay in the UK, rather than if we can afford it? Or does the 38% ‘don’t knows’ obscure that point?
Questions, questions
Interesting to see that Blair Jenkins gets the highest “always truthful” there.
A third think Blair McDougall is always lying? Wow. Popular guy!
It does highlight the need of course for the grassroots campaign – by persuading people through family, work, social groups and face-to-face discussion rather than pointing to political campaign leaders to follow/listen to – but then we knew that anyway!
Can you include journalists, print and broadcasting to see what the public think of them, whether they are lying or not in the next poll commissioned?
“Can you include journalists, print and broadcasting to see what the public think of them, whether they are lying or not in the next poll commissioned?”
No need to wait that long 😉
(We haven’t named any individuals, but the next release will contain data about what people think of the media.)
Just seen the comments from McCaskill about this on twitter. What is wrong with these people? The hatred oozing from their typed word. Condescending, arrogant ****
Liars tend to get aggressive when exposed and challenged. Hence McDougall’s aggression toward your invitation to debate. If he had anything about him he would have politely declined and made a non-insulting joke of it.
Jamie Arriere
Not everyone is as keen on political as we are. I remember canvassing at General Elections over the years were you had saturation coverage on television, radio and newspapers but found people who didn’t know there was an election on and were not interested in participating. They won’t make it along to the polling station on election day.
The “always lying” and “always truthful” details show the split even more clearly between the Yes and No key players.
If you compare always lying to always truthful the “expressed opinion lying ratio” shows a very clear split / trend.
McDougall 33.00
Moore 25.00
Sarwar 14.50
Darling 8.00
Salmond 2.00
Canavan 1.83
Jenkins 1.79
Sturgeon 1.73
How do you get 40 people who have not heard of the Alex Salmond to participate in a political poll? Were they giving out lucky bags or something? 🙂
The thing about Darling is: he is always lying but we weaves his lies in the most mind numbing waffle that most people have have mentally switched to something more interesting instead. For example the bin might need to be put out.
I know it’s not constructive, but I find the fact that people don’t really trust anybody in politics enormously encouraging.
@Vronsky
As Hansard says, Hear, Hear 🙂
McCaskill is a boring, annoying councillor trying to worm his way into the debate – best ignored as an irrelevance he keeps showing up on my timeline as I follow sneekyboy and he retweets.
can’t wait for the media questions now….
Perhaps RT might not want to cover this question. 😉
Very interesting results.
I`m struggling with the notion that there are some people out there who you`d think would know these poll results were coming, and yet they are asking for links to it?
Seriously?
People just being bitchy, I suppose.
Would I be right in thinking that because of the large numbers of people who don’t recognise the people mentioned, or have never heard them speak, that the remaining sample who expressed an opinion won’t actually be statistically significant (i.e. can’t be said to represent the electorate as a whole)?
“Would I be right in thinking that because of the large numbers of people who don’t recognise the people mentioned, or have never heard them speak, that the remaining sample who expressed an opinion won’t actually be statistically significant (i.e. can’t be said to represent the electorate as a whole)?”
It varies. Even the least recognised still got 2-3 times as many responses (c.300) as the average Scottish subsample in UK polls, and the media doesn’t mind covering those on a slow news day.
Rev
Is it worth passing this onto the UK Polling Report or Mike Smithsons Political Betting sites ?
The UK Polling guy in particular is big on checking methodology etc, so that might give it some more profile and help negate any critics who question the process.
Hopefully it would get a broader discussion going there on some of the issues it raises.
And I know Mr Curtice isn’t flavour of the month round these here parts, but I think he would give it a fair airing as its from a ‘proper’ polling company.
@David (6:06pm)
could someone give me their theory on why the media are hostile to independence, i believe they are hostile to independence but dont understand why ?
I honestly reckon they will think they’re not biased. But consider;
Scottish newspapers are in absolute freefall circulation wise and no-one has worked out any way to monetise page views on the internet to guarantee their continued existence so they’re going to be scared for their jobs. Whilst Scotland is part of the UK there is a much larger (though still shrinking) pool of jobs available. Independence should be no barrier to getting some types of job (specialising in writing about stuff like science or literature which is international) but if you’re a political, sports, or general news journalist your area of expertise is going to be Scotland which is going to do nout in terms of putting you in a favourable position in that bigger pool.
In television it’s possibly worse in terms of them thinking independence would fuck their career. Your pinnacle in terms of media jobs in Scotland is the BBC because if you do okay in Scotland and you can move to London within the same organisation. We’ve no idea what would happen to the BBC post independence, but you can see why they would think that’s a career path which would be loads more difficult.
In other words, the bringers of truth to us are massively compromised. Whether they know it or not.
There’s also the group think mentality. Much easier to be going along with your colleagues and not stand out.
Just my thoughts on it…
A swift wee marker to note that ‘The Furious Cringe’ thread (i.e. the ‘Shouty Hamilton Wifie’ video) now has 2937 views – it had 301 before Rev posted it.
I follow sneekyboy and he retweets
I BLOCKED HIM FOR PLAYING THE MAN NOT THE BALL
I think this site is unfair to Prof Curtice. I’ve spent years throwing biscuits at the television whenever he was on, but then he turned out to be right. His problem (more accurately, our problem with him) is that he doesn’t contextualise. I don’t know if he should or shouldn’t (opinions welcome). He’s like King Cnut, standing on the beach, reporting with perfect accuracy that the tide has got no further than his toes. If he wants to keep his trousers dry, shouldn’t he know, or infer, or say something about tides? I think he merely reports. It isn’t his job to understand. And he probably doesn’t.
Scot Goes Pop is running a story on one of the Poll results
link to scotgoespop.blogspot.fr
No need to do a poll on whether the media is telling the truth, it’ll come back as 100% liars.
I have no doubt that the London based and Unionist controlled media will simply rank up the falsehoods more and more as we get closer to the vote. It’ll be very interesting to see how the change tack in the event of a ‘YES’ vote.
Very interesting results again. Should we be concerned at the number of folk who haven’t heard of a number of the ‘main players’ in debate, or is it still to early in the campaign to worry?
And I have to say that I’d be reluctant to answer ‘Always’ or ‘Never’ for any of the folk, as I think everyone is ‘economical with the truth’ at some point, and a small amount of truth will escape from even the most ardent ‘spinner’, despite their best efforts.
I would tend to distrust anyone who thought any politician was “always truthful”. Generally, these are the kind of people who can strung along into supporting things they were originally dead against, just because their party has changed its mind.
For example, if Alex Salmond (other analogies can be found for Johann Lamont, or Michael Moore – in fact, I think the Lib Dems already fall under this) one day decided to build another nuclear submarine base on the east coast of Scotland, there would be the those supporting the party who insist it was always the right thing to do.
Worryingly, judging by the poll, those 10% who think their politicians are always telling the truth are on the YES side.
“I would tend to distrust anyone who thought any politician was “always truthful”. Generally, these are the kind of people who can strung along into supporting things they were originally dead against, just because their party has changed its mind.”
Remember – if you do a poll of 1000 people asking what colour bananas are, you’ll get at least 5% saying they’re blue.
“Interesting to see that Blair Jenkins gets the highest “always truthful” there.”
Intriguing, as I’ve never heard him say anything. Oh – maybe that’s it. Yes group where I am are spitting feathers at the appalling hopelessness of Yes Central. “Arrange, piss-up, brewery, couldn’t” – re-arrange to form a well-known expression.
Give me a five-figure salary and I think I might be able to get some leaflets printed, especially as I usually do it for nothing.
Listen guys : Ive tried to contact the WBC (westminster broadcasting corporation), written to all & sundry on Scottish Media Woes to complain about bias. No body cares or seems to take it seriously. Its so shocking it should go global, to ask others to sample the media coverage here. Something sinister is going on. Its way worse than it used to be, its now endemic and it is being orchistrated from somewhere. Has anybody tried to do an undercover story / study of the media or a poll of the journalits – reporters to see if they are being strong armed ?????
Now that would be dynamite.
We need to keep these polls up for the general public to get the real picture of whats going on.
More power to the Rev !!!!!!!
I find the data above quite encouraging as its a healthy state of affairs to make politicians gain your trust and so the people are right to be sceptical but there’s a thin line between this and not trust any politican period as we all know that leads to apathy so i’d tend to be wary of releasing figures into the mainstream media of Salmond also attracting minus figures despite him being way ahead of the NO side as this can be twisted to suit their ends and in turn negative headlines could in turn backfire and plant the seed in the publics mind ‘oh whats the point, in voting you canny trust any of them as they’re all the same’. The really interesting news is that the NO figureheads were way out in front as not being trusted by many votrers. This is now in our public domain whereas the Unionist media could already be aware of this and have been actively suppressing this information.
Kind of off topic, Stu, is that you in the photo, something tells me it is?
“Kind of off topic, Stu, is that you in the photo, something tells me it is?”
Would that I were so ruggedly handsome. I have no idea who it is.
(i.e. can’t be said to represent the electorate as a whole)?
In my experience this does represent the electorate – they have no idea what is going on, nor are they even interested in the debate – still to busy with their own lives.
Oh jings, poor McDougall. 😀
Not sure how he views himself, but he appears to be regarded as a bit of an albatross by the general public for BT. Were I in his position I’d be dusting down the old CV after this.
Who knew?
Excellent Rev.
Remember – if you do a poll of 1000 people asking what colour bananas are, you’ll get at least 5% saying they’re blue.
That wouldn’t be hard, as almost 4.5% of the UK population is colour blind.
link to colourblindawareness.org
wee162 says:
8 August, 2013 at 7:30 pm
@David (6:06pm)
could someone give me their theory on why the media are hostile to independence, i believe they are hostile to independence but dont understand why ?
Your probably spot on with your comments on this… but we cant leave it there.
Thats why someone should sample the journalists / reporters opinion to see if they are being strong armed
Next protest at BBC should be a serious turnout of us all who care about this
Yes group where I am are spitting feathers at the appalling hopelessness of Yes Central.
You know the referendum is September 2014, not 2013, right?
@shinty
“In my experience this does represent the electorate – they have no idea what is going on, nor are they even interested in the debate – still too busy with their own lives.”
That’s more true than I’d like it to be. Our little chink of light is that it isn’t quite 100% true.
if you do a poll of 1000 people asking what colour bananas are, you’ll get at least 5% saying they’re blue.
The green ones are half blue.
I’m getting a little uncomfortable with the implication that bananas are not blue.
The camera never lies…
link to dcrblogs.com
I’ve met a blue coloured dug, a Chinese Sharpei. Quite weird.
It had a blue-grey coat and a definite blue coloured tongue.
The bastard bit me and had two red balls for a while.
@BTP-
I can imagine that dog telling his pals: ‘Met this Scottish Panda once. Tried to say hello. Big bastirt just bootit me right in the Alberts.’
Fellow non-Twitterers – good stuff via the feed above: ‘Stuart Winton’ concerned about Rev’s ‘influence’ given that he’s not resident in Scotland.
Would that I were so ruggedly handsome. I have no idea who it is.
It’s Glen Boylan, winner of the World’s Biggest Liar competition in 2011.
Theories aiming to explain the dynamics of Europe’s poly-centric spatial distribution of development, include the concepts of “Green Grapes” and Blue Bananas”. These refer to high-growth areas at the heart of Europe (i.e. the Paris-Frankfurt-Milan ‘golden triangle’).
Not a lot of people know that. I’m surprised I remembered. 🙂
Ianbrotherhood
I wouldn’t spend much time looking at his utterances. His brains haven’t been resident in his head for some time. We Dundonians do apologise for him. 🙂
Who is Stuart Winton? (genuine question from a non-twitterite)
“Who is Stuart Winton? (genuine question from a non-twitterite)”
Used to have one of the less stupid Unionist blogs (Planet Politics), and is pretty much the only reader of Longshanker’s.
Ok, none the wiser to be honest.
Longshanker, wasn’t that the tad obsessive somewhat boring chap that posted here a while back?
“Longshanker, wasn’t that the tad obsessive somewhat boring chap that posted here a while back?”
Yes. Now full-time psycho.
Well, I think my money’s been well spent.
Yes. Now full-time psycho.
Well it is good to develop and expand I guess.
By Angus Millar @ 16:07 on August 08, 2013
link to yesscotland.net
Don’t forget Better Together’s leaders are motivated by their belief that Scotland would be successful. It’s their supporters who don’t.
Will Blair McDougal be surprised that PanelBase agreed to do a poll for our disgusting, evil, bile filled site, ?
I think the black rings that have formed around Blairs eyes, will be getting a whole lot blacker, as the findings in this poll are released.
Patrick Roden
Do you think he will start to look like me?
Time to get a makeover and a new photie.
Rev, woke up this morning with a thought. This poll could make a great series of TV ads.
Imagine. A pollster interviewing Joe McPublic, asking would you like welfare policy to be devolved to the Scottish government? Enthusiastic response, “Aye it’s terrible what Westminster is doing with the bedroom tax”. Follow-up question: “So would you support independence, where Scotland has the ability to decide it’s own welfare policy?” Joe McPublic, “Aw, no”. Pollster says, “Thanks for your time”, walks off, and camera drifts back to Joe McPublic with a strange quizzical expression on his face, trying to reconcile in his mind the inconsistency of the answers he has just given.
It’s Glen Boylan, winner of the World’s Biggest Liar competition in 2011.
Thanks for that Jiggsbro. Looks like i owe you one heck of an apology Stu! I mean, after all your effort here and i come out with a corker even the Unionists would find hard to beat in their demonisation of our side. Learns me a lesson to go to bed when tired after being at work 😉
The other thing, of course, is that you can tell the truth all the time, without being entirely honest, as the Rev’s excellent ‘What they aren’t telling you’ posters show.
I think we should crowdfund for billboards or tv ads if we can stretch to it. If there is a refusal to report the survey results in the SMSM it would be great to get the message out there to those who cant dont or wont read blogs online.
Anyone know how much it costs to get a poster on a bus?
Anyone know how much it costs to get a poster on a bus?
It seems to be* in the region of £200 for one rear or side panel, on one bus, for 2-4 weeks. You’d probably want more than one bus, though. That doesn’t include the cost of producing the ad material.
*I could be completely wrong, of course.
HandandShrimp
Who is Stuart Winton? (genuine question from a non-twitterite)
link to twitter.com
Rev. Stu
It’s great you’ve carried out this poll, and that it’s been well supported by the readers.
BUT, is it a good idea to let the BTG. side see any of the results, or the analysis. As they keep making glaring mistakes why on earth are we showing them the error of their ways and analyising the situation for them. Surely the results of the poll should be used to the soul benefit of the YES side. Giving no help to the other side.
BTW is the gent in the photo a previous star of Cornation Street?