Wings Over Scotland

Dear oh dear oh dear…

Hmm, firstly I’m allergic to cats… so Dan, your you tube vid made me laugh out loud.

Secondly, the 2020 opinion Polls showing support for Nikla’s version of Indy (but never quite getting to the ‘gold standard’ 60%) came at exactly the moment when she most needed the support conference coming up/ a danger of a VONC… and for the British Establishment to get Brexit over the line.

Very, very interesting to see a replay now.

Specially in view of Sir Curtice’s recent interviews this last week.

He was a Brit Nat passionately arguing with an English audience, that it was not the amount of money spent in Scotland, but that the people in Scotland got no say in how it was spent.

He was trying to wake them up, and in doing so, he was actually arguing the case for Indy.

A different planet from the usual script of ‘who cares what the whinging Scots are going on about now’.

I wonder what polling he’s been privy to, to so change his tune now.

Meanwhile, in an Indy Scotland, we can put the heating on.

Dan – made me laugh.

Do you think ‘the national’ are trying to quell dissent with their ‘Look it’s all going splendidly for us’ type headline ?

Things must be bad for Sturgeon; headless, clueless and getting heckled. I think she’ll try and throw Robison under a bus, not a bad thing in itself, but I doubt anything can save her.

She has got to go.

Sturgeons fanzine needs a bit of razzle dazzle to detract from the wheels coming off her GRA tour bus.

Oh lookie everyone – we have another surge.

Zzzzzz

Oops!

Ross, did you catch Shauny boy today?

//youtu.be/-alIKSTtt1Q

And if you even dare try to remind any of the Sturgeon flock of the error of their ways,,, they accuse you of being a raving, red white and blue Yoon.

There is just no talking to them,,, they are not for listening.

The National should have a name change to reflect it’s content. Maybe Jackanory would be more suitable as it’s title?

I too would like to know which Scottish rags got paid how much and when by sturgeon.

From memory it was £3 million at the start of the pandemic (coincidentally same time as the Alex Salmond trial), has there been more since?

The problem is, we have a supposedly pro independence first minister who point blank refuses to listen to anybody, refuses to take ANY advice, and simply WILL NOT do a damn thing to achieve indeoendence.

There is right now a wide open goal, as their was around brexit, yet Sturgeon sits back and dithers yet again, kicking the can further down the road. I swear we will get to the 2024 election, and she will yet again tell the SNP mugs that ‘we need a fresh mandate’ before making definitive steps towards indyref, once re-elected (aye, right!). She simply does not have the political guile or indeed desire to go for independence.

We will sit forever waiting for Sturgeon, who seemingly is genuinely waiting for Westminster to turn around and say, ‘alright Nicola, her you go, have your referendum and independence can be yours and we won’t try to stop it’.

I mean just how politically naive is she????

Anyway, the SNP are now finished in my eyes. With two exceptions, the whole lot of them don’t give a flying **** about Scotland or independence. It is all just about their careers and precious incomes.

There is one leader in Scotland who has shown over the years, that he is deadly serious about independence, and that is Alex Salmond. Stop the dithering and join the ALBA party, and sign their St. Andrew’s day declaration too.

But here’s the real killer with the SNP. Sturgeon’s response to the pretendy English ‘supreme’ court verdict was the final test, and she has failed miserably. Even if they looked for one second serious about independence, I simply would not trust Sturgeon and her wee cosy cabal to do it. Sturgeon has quite simply lost the trust of the independence movement, and she will never get it back. She really should go.

link to albaparty.org

link to albaparty.org

Interesting take from a young female middle class halfwit. These manhater zealots spew nothing but sub-collegiate dogma, have zero idea how the real world works, and proliferate in throwing their sniffy, gossipy, brain-damaged views around on the net. Any clown who uses the word ‘patriarchy,’ especially in talking about an event featuring the FEMALE head of country, instantly alerts you as to how anything they say will be utter shite. The usual.

link to thenational.scot

These big support for independence National headlines seem to pop up when NS is under pressure. She must be feeling the heat again. Let’s turn up the burner a wee bit more and see what happens. No Brexit, no Covid, no Putin, no more excuses. No more easing off and letting em get away with it. Keep those burners on, let em feel he heat.

Scott says on 1 December 2022 at 1:17 am:

“During the ‘John Nicholson’ debate in HoC, David Davis spoke to a speaker of “this place” from the reign of Charles I which predates the union, and not a single Scottish MP challenged that remark. “this place” didn’t exist then, but it proves that English MPs think it was business as usual and a continuation of the English Parliament.”

I obviously wouldn’t expect Scottish Unionists to speak up but it’s further confirmation those representing the SNP at Westminster are nowhere near as educated on politics & history as Salmond is. Couldn’t see him letting that one slide. Do you know if there were any Alba Party representatives present, Scott?

It’s never acknowledged that these “surges” back to previously seen levels of support must have been preceded by a “slump”.

In truth, of course, it’s really a symptom of “not much movement or achievement overall”, even if there’s some churn in different categories (eg some remainers moving towards supper for independence and some leavers away from it since 2014).

Note that I am personally going to cease referring to “Yessers” since it refers to a referendum (and a question framing) that we are not now ever going to have and we do not know – if we actually get a plebiscite election – how it will be framed exactly in future.

As a Unionist I belive the National is owned by the Glasgow Herald. The Herald owners play both sides but with the National circulation barely reaching 5 figures is it really relevant??? I find Wings Over Scotland has much better quality journalism than any of the Scottish press papers.

@Breeks says:1 December, 2022 at 5:10 am

On the one hand J K Rowling perhaps misgendered somebody who has served their sentence …

On the other hand, the ex-perp was convicted for the torture and murder of a 13 YO kid.

We all have to make our own minds up about who is the real victim here.

As you write, for the vast majority of decent people, it’s a no-brainer.

It’s the tiny minority of those finding fault the other way, and the frankly terrifying power of that tiny tail to wag the massive dog, that defies comprehension.

Even for SNP voters independence is not priority, the UK political play area of the economy and NHS dominates.
Independence is an existential matter from which all else «flows».
Bawbees and GPs it is then.
Independence, for its own sake? …haud on, haud on….
Plainly something is awry in the kingdom.
Question: What does it mean to be a free and sovereign people?
Is that a trick question?

The SNPs strategy of a mathematical ever-reducing infinity. Does anyone stop and think, haud on we’ll aw be dead? Sorry, now is not the time.

@No Idea says:1 December, 2022 at 7:46 am

anything they say will be utter shite

I would add there is something deeply and disturbingly ignorant and wrong with any public figure willing to stand at and be photographed at a lectern with a prominent letter “Z” on it.

And that’s before I even start on the oxymoron that is “Zero Tolerance”.

Zero Tolerance stands for the message that “dissent, or alternative views, will be eliminated”.

Humanity has been here before. It never ends well.

Mike d says:
1 December, 2022 at 9:01 am

If any other country in the world had been shafted like us Scots, brexit, austerity, foodbanks, fuel, food and energy poverty, etc,etc, there would be riots in the streets (see France). Scots eh, wha’s like us.

Other people with a colonial mindset?

Other people who believe they are too wee, too poor, too stupid.

I have a question for you Mike:

‘Zero Tolerance is a Scottish charity working to end men’s violence against women by tackling its root cause: gender inequality.’

How can you discuss ‘ending men’s violence against women’ if there is no definition of a woman?

The National is nothing more than a compendium of Bedtime Stories , designed to ease Fairy God(awful)mother Sturgeon’s innocent flock into blissful repose .

Linguistic * CALPOL * for the weans . Laudanumb ( sic ) for the ( undiscerning ) adult reader ; in short ….part of the problem

Y’d think even a modicum of self-awareness n respect for people’s intelligence would prevent it having the gall to print another front page * splash * like the above . The editorial staff must have a really , REALLY low opinion of their readership . Maybe that’s why it’s been in continuous decline these last few years . Insult people’s intelligence long enough n – sooner of later – they’ll notice

Anyway , I’m away to SURGE doon the stair , SOAR oot the door ( might even SLAM it ) n DEMAND the crows in ma gerdin BE KIND to the their smaller avian kin n stoap eating aw the breed .

Maybe we should wait and see what happens to the polling when SALVO and Liberation.Scot gets a higher profile, takes it’s message to the people with a push / campaign to get the public backing Liberation en masse, and giving people a tangible route to full on Independence minus all the SNP’s dithering and prevarication.

SALVO is building something that feels like it will be difficult to stop, because it isn’t wedded to the UK’s rancid system, nor hostage to Sturgeon’s obsequious incompetence, but is rooting itself in International Law and various Constitutional records and precedents.

SALVO’s “weakness” isn’t a weakness at all but progress requires a degree of confidence and motivation amongst the people. I think that will come. I honestly believe it. We saw in 2014 how infectious self belief can be.

The essence of Common Good as a feature of pre-Union Scottish society will resonate I think with a great many people. For example it used to be against the law in Scotland to profit from shortages or misfortune, and once the misery of energy price hikes in energy rich Scotland filter through, then I think we’ll be in business.

The polls would probably be much rosier already if Sturgeon had delivered a Scottish Energy Company. What could be worse than first promising one, failing to deliver, and being hit by a manufactured energy crisis.

This easy ride Sturgeon is getting from the media is really beginning to look quite sinister. Her defying gravity is almost as unscientific as her Trangender beliefs. Perhaps there’s a lesson here, about who else cannot be trusted.

A couple of articles from last few days to read with your morning cuppa. These may go some way to explain the lack of significant movement of folk wanting Scotland to return to self-governing status.

link to robinmcalpine.org

link to robinmcalpine.org

It was certainly my experience that the local SNP Party would not really work with or support local YES groups on various campaigning initiatives.
However the YES groups nationally were certainly communicating and working together to develop and strengthen campaigning techniques.

But YES groups trying to sustain their efforts and finances to doggedly continue on as the Indy can keeps getting kicked down the road has been very hard, and especially with the internal splits in some groups that developed due to concerns with the SNP’s antics on various matters.

‘Let’s go round again’

Come to think about it, the ancient Greeks thought of time as being circular and not linear. Look at what happened to them…

the poll i really want to see is the one GOVE commissioned, then refused to publish, despite being ordered to by the courts.
what could it possibly reveal
60/40 min, eh

Sturgeon’s fanzine giving it large with the “Jam tomorrow” headlines, again…

Total and utter [insert random expletive]!

Maybe The National can now proffer an explanation as to why there was such a severe decline from 52% in Feb 2020 that it has taken a ‘surge’ to get it back up to 52 now.

Ruby at 8.43

Open link to archive.ph
then paste the link in to see the archived article.

It was St Andrews day & St Andrew was a trans doncha know?

As polling Groundhog Day comes round once again with the talismanic “indy at 52%!” shockeroonie, it might be worth considering where the extra % points for indy that might actually help deliver the desired outcome are going to come from?

It’s a racing certainty that there are folk out there doing private polling about which demographics and sub groups are most open to switching from No to Yes, and which voters may have flipped the other way.

It may come as an unpleasant truth to some in here, but the obsession with constitutional minutiae and the Kremlinology of the SNPs internal power games leaves most folk “outside the bubble” cold. Similarly hobby horse issues which have huge meaning for some folk, whether GRA, the war and responses to it, why there isn’t more Scottish football on telly, or whatever other item gets their dander up don’t necessarily resonate with the electorate as a whole.

The fact the headline number for indy hasn’t budged much outside margin of error numbers is telling. It strongly suggests the big questions still haven’t been answered. Whether the movement in its current state is capable of providing those answers and persuading enough undecided voters to switch is only one part of the equation. The other has to be how that increased % for Yes, once achieved, is turned in to the desired result.

There’s little point demonstrating a majority in the polls if there’s no clear route to seeing independence actually declared at the end of a process enjoying clear majority support and the expectation the results will be recognised internationally.

Lets go round again…this time from The Average Shite Band.

All im now hearing is a twist on StarTrekking but “Always going sideways cause we cant find eject”

Sturgeon’s stabbing-in-the-back of Salmond put me off her.

But here’s some points that may make her out not to be soooo bad:

After we lost in 2014, there was nothing she could do except say indy was parked for a while.

With Brexit, she did ask for a S30 but May told her now is not the time.

I don’t believe for a second that May would have given Sturgeon a S30 order in return for getting May’s version of Brexit voted through the House of Commons. If May suggested that’s what she’d do, she’d be defenestrated before she could put the plan into action. We’ve seen with Liz Truss how ruthless the Tory party can be. So there’s no way Brexit was ever going to change Tory minds that Scotland could break up their precious Union – especially not when they’d just won it back from the EU (at least, that’s how they saw it).

With indy support still oscillating above and below the 50% mark, there was nothing much she could use as leverage over Westminister. Wings even wrote an article showing the National was wrong: the Unionists in the last election got more than 50% of the popular vote. So Sturgeon really had nothing to use.

This state of affairs still continues to this day.

Indy support is still in the minority and I guess the next Westminster election will probably show it still is in the minority, though perhaps a little higher than 45%.

Maybe we’ve reached the ceiling of indy support?

As I say, I’m not exactly a fan of Sturgeon since the Salmond affair (I quit SNP and joined Alba) but I think she inherited a difficult position after the 2014 indy loss.

Maybe the court case was just to show to everyone that Westminster holds all the power and she’s got no leverage until an actual majority of people in Scotland vote for indy?

Blackford gone!
The games afoot!
of is it?

Blackford gone? I thought the SNP high heid yins recently pulled out all the stops to protect him. Are the political tectonic plates starting to grumble?

The report of Blackford standing down says he’s accepted a new role “at the centre of the SNPs independence campaign”.

Wait…..whit….there’s a campaign?

tobydog says:
1 December, 2022 at 10:54 am

Ruby at 8.43

Open link to archive.ph
then paste the link in to see the archived article.

Thanks for the info tobydog. I’ll pass it on to ‘No Idea’
You are kind although I wonder why you didn’t archive the link for me. 🙂

TBH I am not all that interested in reading the article. I suspect it’s a press release from Sturgeon. Nasty woman interrupted she/her’s very important speech when she was categorically told not to ask what a woman was or even mention gender. She probably arrived wearing one of these banned scarves.

I thought it was the job of the person posting the link to ensure it was archived so others could read it and weren’t contributing further to the Scottish MSM who already get paid by us dopey taxpayers to print Sturgeon’s press releases.

I have archived a good few articles this week some this morning & I expect the same in return. It’s a bit annoying when you click on a link that goes nowhere.

Blackford resigning that’s boring. We need more info.

Any chance of a decent sex scandal.

What about Blackford, Grady, & Patricia (come home & shag me)Gibson having a threesome?

Blackford can be Rita, Grady Sue & Gibson Bob.

link to youtube.com

It’s a multifaith society we live in and has been for all my life, the many different communities that make up the great Tartan of Scotland. As big Eck said.

All I’m saying is that English people move north because of the familiarity in terms of culture and language after 300 years of Angicisation. White English Christians – if the media are to be believed are now in a minority in cities like Birmingham.

The problem is the English moving north is they have an affinity to Britain as a nation, not Scotland. As Outlined in the Edinburgh University Study – The Scottish Question 6 months on.

Not that we’ve got a referendum to vote in anymore anyway but the change in Scotland’s demographics – which the Scottish government failed to account for, as they can’t even record a census correctly withheld this information from Scottish people.

Which one was Blackford again?

So, the SNP’s Westminster leader Ian (Scotland won’t stand for it) Blackford is to stand down as leader, having helped dupe the indy masses for years.

According to Radio Shortbread Blackford is taking up a roll to do with business and independence, will he be missed by us asking questions at PMQs, I think not. How do we sum up his time at Westminster, utterly ineffective is my view.

Who will be the next SNP MP Westminster leader, and will he/she just continue down the same tired old route that takes nowhere.

In the comments is Ian Blackford, the departing SNP leader saying that Brexit will cost us.

Sturgeon knew this also but did nothing.

“Brexit added almost £6bn to UK food bills in the two years to the end of 2021, affecting poorest households the most. The cost from the EU shot up because of red tape, adding £210 to the average household food bills over 2020 and 2021. (London School of Economics)”

link to twitter.com

Republicofscotland @ 12:38 pm

According to Radio Shortbread Blackford is taking up a roll to do with business and independence, will he be missed by us asking questions at PMQs, I think not.

Certainly looks like he’s done that a few times since he’s been down there.

Bye-bye Blackford, PM’s Questions won’t be the same. Thank God. Who’s next?

@David Hannah

It’s an issue that seems to generate a lot more heat than light. Whether the new census figures shed any light on the numbers remains to be seen.

As discussions about the franchise over he past year or so on here have shown the scale of immigration from (chiefly) England and also to an extent the rest of the UK, is seen as a problem by those who want either to exclude all or some non-native born Scots from the franchise for future referendums.

The Edinburgh University study post indyref1 suggested that 70% of RUK born voters voted No and 30% voted Yes, and that this cadre of voters was enough to turn a narrow Yes victory (52% vs 48%) amongst voters born in Scotland.

Those opposed to enfranchising “New Scots” have a number of questions to answer though:

1) We’re supposed to be encouraging immigration because we have a declining population. Who is going to pay the taxes and do the jobs we need done in future for an ageing and shrinking population if we discourage immigration by disenfranchising them?

2) What impact would disenfranchising some random cadre of New Scots have on the votes and attitudes of native born Scots who support civic nationalism and oppose franchise restriction? How many of their votes is it worth losing?

3) Isn’t it likely that the 70/30 split suggested by the Edinburgh University study can be changed, and may already have shifted particularly given brexit, the omnishambles of Tory rule recently and the prospect than an independent Scotland might actually be a safer bet now than staying in the union?

4) Wouldn’t alternative means of offsetting the impact of New Scots votes being predominantly “No” votes be more easily (and less controversially) offset by increasing turnout/registration and ensuring more than 52% of native born Scots voted “Yes”? The Quebec referendums both had turnouts in the low 90%’s , whereas indyref1 was low 80%’s.

5) What would the impact of any proposed franchise restrictions be on the appetite of the international community to recognise independence, and on Westminster’s appetite to negotiate an agreed process, particularly given the 2014 referendum franchise was similar to that used in the vast majority of other comparable self determination referendums since WW2?

The questions above aren’t posed to be provocative by the way: they will all have to be addressed in the event the majority of the movement decides to go down the route of changing the 2014 franchise to something different.

@David Hannah says:1 December, 2022 at 12:30 pm

Completely agree with your post.

That’s why the recent shocker that 1.1 million people entered the UK last year aught to have been a seismic wake up call to the Indy movement.

Not because of the usual dog whistle reasons. Simply because that will have resulted in a big surge in people moving north and into Scotland.

But, because of the narrowly focused myopia of most on here, that statistic never even rippled the pond.

Whereas, to me, it clearly signals that the window of time, during which it will still be possible to get an indigenous Scottish vote for Indy, will be closing quite soon.

John Main says:
1 December, 2022 at 1:29 pm

“Whereas, to me, it clearly signals that the window of time, during which it will still be possible to get an indigenous Scottish vote for Indy, will be closing quite soon.”

I suspect that most migrants are indy supporters. Not the English. But everyone else.

A change in the wind?
I agree, the unionist press support Sturgeon cos shes working for the union but they will bring her down when she is no longer useful.

Perhaps they’re detecting the huge amount of anger at pushing through GRR.
Perhaps internal polling is telling then there is a drop in support for her.

Blackford stepping down will be part of this.

@KT Lorimer

How could it possibly be changed, I don’t understand why this keeps coming up it is totally counter productive – like all things that are illogical (e.g. self ID) it has the opposite effect to that which is intended.

I agree with you. I suspect – although I freely admit I have no actual proof and AFAIK there’s no polling on it – that the majority agrees with you and would largely echo Rev Stu’s Twitter demolition of the case for franchise restriction from last year.

Those in favour of changing the 2014 franchise, who are well represented BTL here, tend to be supporters of the “Scotland as colony” narrative too. They are convinced that we’re being “swamped” by the votes of British nationalist incomers, chiefly English folk buying up relatively cheap property in rural areas it seems.

They don’t accept the argument that it’s a counter productive strategy and could actually cost us more support than it gains, apart from the moral arguments which Rev Stu and others have also pointed out.

I tend to agree that even if there isn’t a commonality of membership of those who believe in a-scientific woo woo like “TWAW”, there is very definitely a similarity in approach and significant overlap in those supporting franchise restriction and those promoting other forms of non-mainstream narratives in other areas like vaccine denial, responsibility for the current war, climate change.

It’s been interesting and somewhat concerning over the past year to see parts of the movement out themselves as fringe nutters, particularly as the increase in support we need for a majority is only realistically going to come from mainstream “soft No” voters to whom such Trumpian narratives are likely to be about as welcome as a fart in a lift.

@Viscount Ennui says:1 December, 2022 at 1:33 pm

I suspect that most migrants are indy supporters. Not the English. But everyone else.

I am minded to grant your suspicions 100% dead cert accuracy.

But so fucking what?

Most migrants don’t come to Scotland. They settle in London or the Midlands.

It’s the people they displace who come to Scotland. There are various reasons why they displace people, but let’s focus on the most pertinent one. When 1.1 million people arrive in a country in a year, yet that country builds hardly any new homes, the pressure on living space pushes up prices. Every year, tens of thousands of property owning southerners cash in their modest terraced house and move north to buy a stonking executive new build, half an acre of land, a split new SUV and still have 100K banked. And why not?

Perhaps I failed to make all of this clear. Then again, I thought it bleeding obvious, TBH.

@Andy Ellis says:1 December, 2022 at 2:10 pm

I have followed your consistent argument on the franchise for probably years now, and until quite recently, agreed with you.

What has changed for me is the realisation that the political classes running the UK have decided to go for broke. There is no other way to interpret a 1.1 million immigration total for a single year.

Or, to put it another way, you cannot deny that adding a million people a year fundamentally changes the nature of a population of circa 65 million. We can only guess at the proportionate change in Scotland’s population. It may be less as a percentage. It may be more. We don’t know.

Bottom line though, the goalposts have been moved. The arguments need to be revisited.

I maintain three things:

1) Having got their immigration total to little or no pushback, the governing elites will treat this kind of numbers as the “new normal”.

2) The ensuing spillover into Scotland, of reasonably well-off, propertied, older, indigenous Brits (not new arrivals to the UK), will accelerate.

3) Thus, the naturally pro-Indy voting fraction of Scotland will decline.

John main 2:10pm, dont know how to put the links to this, but just google ” prof Danny dorling welsh brexit vote”. Backs up your post.

That’s the union lads now calling Scottish independence ‘Partition’.
link to twitter.com

Andy Ellis is yet again trying to turn the franchise into nativist agenda.

A total failure to grasp *residency* for X amount of years before voting on referendums that have a direct impact on a nations future.

To somehow translate that as meaning *non native born Scots*

Did anyone mention birth? I know I certainly didn’t.

*sigh*

Ruby: i was referring to this bit in the article I posted regarding
Scottish feminists hit back at UN gender recognition warning.

Earlier this month, Alsalem, the UN’s special rapporteur on violence against women, claimed Scotland’s proposed changes to gender recognition law posed a global risk – despite other countries enacting similar reforms.

In a letter to the UK Government, she said the Scottish Government’s proposals to make it easier to obtain a gender recognition certificate (GRC) would “potentially open the door for violent males who identify as men to abuse the process of acquiring a GRC and the rights associated with it”.

KT Lorimer @5.06

It doesn’t really matter whilst Sturgeon is running the show, as all votes for independence are meaningless. To her it just gives her the right to ask for another s.30,

@John Main 2.26 pm

I think the 3 things you maintain are fairly loaded though, which is the issue with a lot of the assumptions made about numbers, inward and outward flows, and trying to second guess how those involved will vote in response to particular issues.

Making windows in to individual men’s souls is never easy, even for those unwise enough to try it: doing so on behalf of categories of people based on where they decide to re-locate is, I’d argue, harder still.

I’m not sure I’d agree that the “elites” are trying to make mass immigration the new normal. It wasn’t so long ago the Tories were assuring us they could reduced net migration to a few thousand a year. Remind us how that’s working out?

I suspect the current figures are skewed somewhat by the war in you-know-where. I suspect many of those involved will return to their homes once the Orcs are finally defeated.

As for spillover in to Scotland of rich Southerners accelerating, I suppose my response would be that I’d need to see receipts for that, as for the linked assumption that the pro-indy voting proportion of the whole Scottish electorate will inevitably decline as a result.

If you recall, a number of devotees of franchise restriction have been assuring us that things have been getting worse and worse on this front ever since 2014.

Surely if that was the case, the % in polling for indy would be decreasing, not increasing wouldn’t it?

@KT Lorimer 5.06 pm

My neighbours include a woman born here to English parents and a man born in England to Scottish born parents – which of them should or should not have the vote?

It depends on how extreme the nativist who answers is. The more extreme nativists have called for anyone not born here to be disqualified, irrespective of residence. Others have called for lengthy residence criteria which are not common practice historically, still less best practice as some insist is the case.

I don’t think those who think restricting the franchise would be easy did the long haul of getting folk to register last time nor do they understand the workload of the officers responsible for maintaining the two rolls already in existence – there is no way they could set up a third.

Of course once Scotland is a normal country that would be different but one would have to start on the basis that all those who voted for normality have the choice to be a normal Scottish citizen.

@ KT Lorimer

Eh, the electoral roll is constantly evolving, folk coming of age, folk dying, new folk moving here, others leaving.
It’s a piece of piss to set the parameters and work with those eligible for a specific franchise.
Even political Parties have access to the electoral roll. SNP use Activate for their canvassing data and they can filter out various categories depending on what is required to work with.
EG. For a full canvas of an area they can print the entire electoral list of everyone registered, or for a specific election just those eligible to vote in it, or just their supporters, or by age, or EU status, etc

You’re speaking to someone that’s spent considerable time chasing up people and getting or keeping them registered to vote at each election. Many folk live un-settled lives so are constantly moving and dropping off the electoral roll. Try being out for days in minus 10 temps at one recent election campaign.

Sometimes end up handing in dozens of completed voter registration forms to the Electoral Office before the deadline prior to an election.
And mind, I’m just one of those useless activists, but I can take a rest now though as Andy Ellis thinks we are shit, so no doubt he’ll pick up the workload now.
He speaks for everyone and knows what they are thinking too, so he’ll have all that local knowledge of every area making it a piece of piss for him.

KT Lorimer says:
1 December, 2022 at 7:33 pm

So everyone would have to be cross-referenced – the anomalies would be massive.

In the first place you’d have to have the political will.

In the meantime you have made it clear that the new Scotland is for those who can prove their ancestry here which will put a lot of people off I don’t see how that is helpful in persuading folk of the merits of independence – there can’t be a group saying “We will stay in the union unless and until there is a Scotland only for those born here”.

—

A one-off vote between 7am & 10pm that restricts the franchise doesn’t mean that all future elections etc will only include those who voted in the referendum.

The franchise will be set by legislation, as happened in 2014, so political will is a matter for the chamber.

link to legislation.gov.uk

@ Andy Ellis

Is Stuart Campbell a New-English?

@ Andy Ellis at 7:49 pm

Yes, the birthright position is what some folk punt, you want to push for total civic nationalism, even though you’ve stated tightening up the voter register is a no brainer.
And Stu had no great issue with that either to address transient workers and students, etc.
So I speak for myself as other do for their position, embarrassment doesn’t come in to it, free speech and all that…
So I am in the centre and certainly between the polarised extremes, and if anything closer aligned to Stu and your own position.
My own views are formed by years of being on the ground in amongst and interacting with the electorate. You dismiss this experience as worthless but how would you know as you haven’t spent decades interacting with all sorts of folk in my locale. Working with the most vulnerable in society to the Eton educated estate owning Sirs.

You can repeatedly state we’ve come up with nothing to counter your or Stu’s position all you like, but that maybe just highlights the issue with chatting on the internet, as it is clear you haven’t been receptive to taking onboard the merits of the actual input of our on the ground experiences and if anything you ridiculously double downed on that the other day discounting it as worthless.

@Dan

He speaks for everyone and knows what they are thinking too, so he’ll have all that local knowledge of every area making it a piece of piss for him.

See, you’re doing that thing you do Dan, misrepresenting me. Perhaps it’s down to trying to hide the guilt you feel for being associated with regressive nativism, or perhaps it’s simpler and you’re just an intellectually dishonest piece of work?

Perhaps we should be glad you’re not as much of a blood and soil ranter as “Scott”, but it’s all a continuum in the end. You and other nativists certainly don’t speak for the movement as a whole, and still less for all Scottish voters – particularly the ones you don’t consider pure enough to vote!

I’ve neither said nor do i believe that I know what everyone is thinking. You repeating it in successive posts as a squirrel to divert attention from the paucity of your arguments doesn’t make them any more convincing. It doesn’t take a genius to figure out that majority opinion hasn’t accepted that franchise isn’t a priority.

You’re just another one of these bores that likes to go off on one and claim privileged knowledge because you’re an activist and know how things work because you’ve chapped doors, stuffed envelopes, manned stalls, attended AUOB marches, yadda, yadda, yadda….

@Andy Ellis says:1 December, 2022 at 6:37 pm

Thanks for your response. I agree we don’t have the facts and figures to enable us to reach informed conclusions.

I’m not sure I’d agree that the “elites” are trying to make mass immigration the new normal.

Perhaps. I would ask if you have any timeline over which you would agree that if numbers are sustained, it starts to look like a “plan”. But whatever your answer, I would be unconvinced. The “plan” already looks crystal clear to me.

I suspect the current figures are skewed somewhat by the war in you-know-where. I suspect many of those involved will return to their homes once the Orcs are finally defeated

So what? If I am right, and indigenous migration to Scotland from down south is driven by pressure on living space, available housing, etc. those who were “temporarily” displaced won’t be returning. It will be a permanent move, not temporary. For those who sell up and use the vast sums they get for their wee semi to “go large” in Scotland, it is very much a one way journey. Selling your house here won’t get you back on the English property ladder.

a number of devotees of franchise restriction have been assuring us that things have been getting worse and worse on this front ever since 2014.

Surely if that was the case, the % in polling for indy would be decreasing, not increasing wouldn’t it?

Is it increasing? That’s a curious claim to make, given the pictures at the top of this thread. A number of posters BTL have been wondering why the Indy support graph has been flat-lined for years, especially given recent macroeconomic problems that theoretically should be pumping up support. Something is cancelling out these increases. Whilst probably not a single cause is entirely responsible, I suggest inwards migration has to be one cause.

Bottom line, Wingers lack of interest in immigration is a mistake. Even if not one single immigrant comes into Scotland as a result, meaning that every one resides in England & Wales, that only serves to further increase the political and economic disparities between Scotland and rUK.

Far more importantly, every addition to the already unsustainably populated rUK must further harden the determination of rUK and WM to hold onto Scotland for its resources, as the days when rUK could sustain itself lie far in the past.

@”Scott” 7.03 pm

Vienna Convention on the Conduct of Referendums explicitly states that a franchise can be restricted to those born in Scotland. Council of Europe is part of the international community, yet you constantly dismiss the document as irrelevant, for reasons.

Just because something can be technically done or is permissible under the Vienna Convention doesn’t mean that it should be done, or that it is politically expedient or morally justified, still less that it is compulsory. That’s the reason your quaint attachment to it isn’t relevant in this debate.

As you clearly state there is no ‘one size fits all’ – not all referendums have used the same criteria, so why you’re arguing that the franchise must follow ‘international best practice’ when there is no consistency is bemusing to say the least.

I’m arguing that the case for changing the franchise is weak, in much the same terms as Rev Stu’s original thorough fisking on Twitter last July which triggers all the nativists so much when its mentioned. No two self determination referendums are identical: each case is unique. As you admit, I’ve never said otherwise.

What I HAVE repeatedly pointed out, because the hard of thinking appear immune to the point, is that the historical and constitutional precedent is a broadly residence based franchise. The exact details may differ, but the principle sure as hell doesn’t. You spent an inordinate amount of effort arguing the toss about Gibraltar and New Caledonia, neither of which are valid comparisons of course because they’re both non-self governing territories as recognised by the UN.

Changing the 2014 precedent would be flying in the face of precedent and would make achieving international recognition harder not easier. There’s no real counter argument to that simple fact: disenfranchising tens or hundreds of thousands of Scottish residents who were able to vote in 2014 would not help the cause or make us friends abroad.

Scotland will decide what the franchise will be, not USA (who don’t allow incomers the vote on anything significant ever) or any other nation.

Just another variation of the already discredited false equivalence used by nativists who try to use citizenship criteria in already independent countries for constitutional votes as a valid comparison with the franchise for self determination referendums. The two things are not the same.

Given the UKSC finding last week, the only way Scotland can unilaterally decide on the franchise for a referendum is if it’s what Sturgeon terms a “wildcat” vote without being S30 authorised. A referendum on that basis is a non starter now more than before: the yoons are never going to agree it in current circumstances and are likely to try and change the terms from those agreed in 2014.

Other nations don’t get to decide on our self determination, but they do get to decide if they recognise it. I’d prefer a process that ended in general if not universal recognition rather than ending up like Northern Cyprus, Transnistria or South Ossetia.

To add further to this conversation..

I’ve heard it say that as we’re now a colony – strict franchise laws now come into the equation regards UN International law on decolonisation. No external influences allowed & automatic protections for the original colonized to be able to escape thier oppressor by stricter election rules with no jiggery-pokery (like flouting rules?)

@”Scott”

I’m asking you, because you’ve defined what a New-Scot is to include those who aren’t even eligible for dual-nationality, eg Those born in India.

Is your Scottish daughter a New-Irish because she now lives there?

I simply used a term many others used which is shorthand for residents of Scotland who were not born here.

Ruth Wishart said in 2020:

It’s entirely possible that the Scottish diaspora would vote for independence. Maybe in huge numbers. That’s not the point – the franchise belongs to those who pay Scotland the ultimate compliment of making her their home. Wherever they were born.

Some countries allow dual-nationality, some don’t. So what? Ireland is an independent country which decides who gets to vote in which circumstances. I doubt Rev Stu considers himself “New English” but I certainly wouldn’t presume to talk for him: I seem to recall he’s talked about coming back to Scotland, so I have my doubts he’d be considering taking English or RUK citizenship in the event of Scottish independence.

It would never have occurred to me when I lived in England to consider myself as New English or anything other than Scottish, but I knew plenty of proud Scots there and indeed here who consider themselves British first and Scottish second.

Of course I don’t know what percentage of Scots share your blood and soil extremist position that only those born here are pure enough to have a say, but I’m fairly confident it isn’t many: I certainly hope so. I’d hate to think such regressive and deeply odious views were widespread.

Perhaps Rev Stu could do a question on the option in his next poll?

@Geri

The UN doesn’t accept that Scotland is a non self-governing territory, still less a colony. Just because Alf Baird and a small group of others ardently believe it doesn’t make it true.

You and others who have fallen for the “Scotland as colony” snake oil have a long way to go before you convince the rest of the independence movement that your case has any merit, still less convincing the UN, EU, Council of Europe, ICJ, other international organisations or individual states.

How long is that going to take do you think? I think I’d bet on plebiscitary elections happening first and being considerably less contentious.

@Geri

Oh I dunno, a degree in Politics and a doctorate in International Relations might suggest otherwise to most folk, but by all means carry on with that straw manning.

So, Geri….would they care that London born Tasmina Ahmed Sheik would be disenfranchised if folk like “Scott” had their way? How about Angus Robertson, also born in London. Or Dijon born Christian Allard?

I’m sure others can add names of Scots both high profile and just ordinary folk who will suddenly find themselves impure if some of the nativists have their way.

What do YOU call a country that is in an internationally recognised treaty with England as a co signatory but can’t do any of the following..

Hold a referendum
Manage its own income
Manage its own broadcasting
Manage its own NHS budget
Manage its own resources
Manage its own immigration
Manage who it trades with direct
Manage its own sea ports
Manage overseas relations
Has no control over its own defence
Its own language being erased
Manage employment laws
Manage its own pensions & welfare
Manage an oil fund
Manage licences
Remove nukes
Have a foreign policy
Not Brexit against its will
Removing single market access
Stopping WM imposing internal market bill against parliament vote of no consent

..take yer time.

If it walks like a duck & quake’s like one…

Andy Ellis says:1 December, 2022 at 8:30 pm
@Dan

You’re just another one of these bores that likes to go off on one and claim privileged knowledge because you’re an activist and know how things work because you’ve chapped doors, stuffed envelopes, manned stalls, attended AUOB marches, yadda, yadda, yadda….
——————————————————–
And has spent lots of time talking complete bollocks to other people talking complete bollocks and agreed with each other.
Unfortunately Dan like many others aren’t as clever as they think they are , you would think they would realise their own “facts” were garbage eventually when the things they constantly espouse never ever come to anything.

Desimond says:1 December, 2022 at 11:58 am
Blackford away but will take a big role in Independence Campaign..covering Business … thats that fucked then!
_————————————————–
It can’t be much of a post in “Business” as surely the SNP Growth
Commissions Andrew Wilson already covers that role ?

Breeks: no problem.

Stuart: I do think the SNP was hi-jacked, far more than any other party, and I also think it was deliberate. I did a rough, granted, correlation between those who advocate the ‘long route’ (that is, never) and those who support GRC Reform. They are largely the same people. They have captured the Democrats in the US in the same way. None of this is accidental or even just opportunistic: they knew exactly which parties, which public institutions, which local authorities, which civil services to infiltrate and dominate. The Denton’s Document lays it all out for us. In every country in the West where this take-over has taken place, you will find that specific parties and institutions, etc., have been targeted. It is a form of neo-Marxist Post Modernism, led by Queer Theory, which is, in a nutshell, the aspiration to ultimate freedom of the human condition. Unfortunately, like all these ultra left or ultra right creeds, it relies on totalitarianism to propel it forwards. It takes no account of the fact that, societally, males dominate (albeit, it tries to insist that all gender roles and stereotypes will disappear even as they shore them up) ergo, females and children will, ultimately, have no freedom except to do as they are told, when they are told. Women will have no sexual autonomy whatsoever, and children will be used and abused. The Law of unintended consequences – or, in their case, intended consequences, because these people, the activists, know exactly what they are doing, and their billionaire backers, ditto.

Geri says:
2 December, 2022 at 12:10 am

Joe Le Fanni

lol

—

…y va pas partout, y marche pas au soda.

Fun fact: I sang ‘Joe le Taxi’ at a carry okie night in a small village hall in the south of France ilya vingt ans. Encore, they cried. 🙂

Joe says:
2 December, 2022 at 1:37 am

If you can’t work out how many parts of Geri’s list are utter garbage you probably should have been in bed by 9pm, does your Ma know your [sic] still up ? Here is an easy one to start you with though. “Manage its own resources”

—

1. Ask her yourself. She lives at 1060 West Addison.

2. You are a fucking idiot if you don’t know what resources were being referred to, but it certainly wasn’t the sums allocated by UK Parliament referenced in GERS.

3. Say hello to ‘Some soldiers’ next time you see yer Da.

@Geri 11.56 pm

& You think the International community will look at all that & say “Sorry, you don’t qualify”

They already have and continue to do so. If Scotland was accepted as being in a colonial relationship by the UN and wider international community, it would be on the list of non-self governing territories like Gibraltar and the Falklands. It isn’t.

The UKSC finding last week with respect to the devolved administration not being able to hold a referendum without a S30 order does indeed prove to the hard of thinking what every dog in the street already knew: the union isn’t and never was a relationship of equals.

We’re not being colonised or held against our will. All we have to do is convince enough Scots to grow a pair and put an “X” in a box on a ballot paper to become independent.

OD’ing on the “Scotland as colony” smack and misappropriating the struggles of peoples who fought real colonial oppression just makes you and others who have over indulged look like cranks. Cranks won’t win us the argument or convert the undecided voters we need to the cause.

Have you informed Stu he’s ‘a crank’ ?

You can’t argue both positions.

& Don’t try insult ppls intelligence ‘all you have to do is put an x’ FFS! That’s going to make Sunak do what exactly? Hand over Scotlands purse & wish us all a nice day?

& Apologies I’m not fking oppressed enough to meet your new made up definition of what a Colony is. Take your green ink & go annoy the fk out of a dictionary eh?

link to wingsoverscotland.com