Labour’s twilight
We try to deploy the money that generous readers send us during our fundraisers very carefully, so we were annoyed last week when we commissioned a new opinion poll from Panelbase with a few thousand quid left over from the Wee Blue Book campaign, only to have every other pollster and his dog release the results of their own surveys the very next day.
So sadly (for us) the following figures won’t have quite the dramatic impact that they might have commanded otherwise, but they’re still pretty interesting, particularly in the context of how they relate to the findings from Ipsos MORI, YouGov and others.
(Our poll also covered some ground that nobody else has done, but to add excitement and build a little suspense we’ll save that for a wee bit later on today.)
Let’s get to it, then.
WESTMINSTER VOTING INTENTIONS (excluding Don’t Knows)
SNP: 45% (Ipsos MORI 52%, YouGov 43%)
Labour: 28% (IM 23%, YG 27%)
Conservative: 15% (IM 10%, YG 15%)
UKIP: 7% (IM 2%, YG 6%)
Lib Dem: 3% (IM 6%, YG 4%)
Green: 1% (IM 2%, YG 6%)
(Sample size 1000, fieldwork 30 Oct-5 Nov 2014. As ever, totals may not add up to exactly 100% due to rounding.)
It’s a sign of the extraordinary nature of the times that these almost qualify as good numbers for Scottish Labour. 28% is higher than they scored with either Ipsos or YouGov, and the 17% gap between them and the SNP, while worse than YouGov’s 16-point deficit, is a lot better than the 29 they trailed by according to Ipsos.
The ScotlandVotes predictor suggests those shares would result in Labour hanging onto just 10 of its current 40 Scottish seats in the House of Commons, with the SNP rocketing from six to 47. Electoral Calculus puts it slightly closer, giving Labour 13 to the SNP’s 46. (EC has Labour keeping hold of Glasgow East, Airdrie & Shotts, and Inverclyde, the latter two by margins of less than half a percent.)
The Nats also collect seats from the Lib Dems, whose astounding 3% must surely be an all-time low for any of the “main” parties anywhere. On the ScotlandVotes projection they keep just one of their 11 seats, and on Electoral Calculus it’s a total wipeout, with even Alistair Carmichael in Orkney and Shetland, and Michael Moore down at the opposite end of the country, falling to huge SNP swings.
(Again, taken individually these results seem implausible – as does the SNP ousting David Mundell – but even if you concentrate the remaining Lib Dem support in their strongest heartlands there’s only so far you can make 3% of the vote stretch.)
With undecided voters included, the figures are:
SNP: 39%
Labour: 24%
Conservative: 13%
UKIP: 6%
Lib Dem: 2%
Green: 1%
Don’t know: 14%
We then asked how people would vote in a re-run of the independence referendum. When YouGov asked that question last week they got a 52-48 win for Yes, BUT their sample was slightly skewed – it comprised 48% people who actually did vote Yes in September and 52% who voted No, which is a significant deviation from the actual result of 45-55, and therefore unbalances their findings in favour of Yes.
Our sample, when weighted, comprised 45% Yes voters and 55% No (in fact, precisely 44.7% to 55.3% excluding those who didn’t vote in the referendum at all), so it should be a more accurate reflection of any shift in opinion. The answer we got was:
Knowing what you know now, if the independence referendum was tomorrow how would you vote?
Yes: 51%
No: 49%
(excluding Don’t Knows. Full result Yes 46, No 45, DK 6, would not vote 2.)
Excluding don’t knows, 41% of people who voted Labour in the 2010 general election, and 32% of those who voted for Labour at Holyrood in 2011, now say they’d vote for independence tomorrow. So there’s a thing.
Respondents had changed their minds in both directions. 9% of people who voted Yes eight weeks ago would now vote No, with another 2% unsure. But 14% of No voters now want to vote Yes, and 9% have moved to undecided.
Remarkably, that means that 11% of Yes voters and 23% of No voters – not far short of one in five voters in total – have had second thoughts about their choice, within just two months of casting their ballot.
We’ll have more data for you, including our sample’s views on the EU, the Scottish Labour leadership contest and the relationship between the Holyrood and Westminster parliaments, in the coming hours.
Please stop telling us it’s implausible for us to oust Mundell. This is the main goal of some people’s lives over the next six months you know!
These changes of mind on the independence question are absolutely extraordinary. Difficult to get your head round really.
I read a suggestion the other day that it may be that opinion polls from now on will consistently show Yes ahead. Interesting concept.
Difficult to justify another referendum unless Yes is consistently WELL ahead, though. Will it creep up as Smith bombs?
What on earth would make anyone change from a YES to a NO?
“Knowing what you know now?” Really? What has changed in the last two months?
I cannot think of any scenario since the referendum that would precipitate a change of heart from YES to a NO.
“Labourdammerung” with Mags in the Ride of the Valkyries, on at the Westminster Pavillion for an extended run to next May. 😀 😀
We will oust Mundell, with a little bit of help from UKIP heavily targetting that seat
Think that the figures here are probably more likely than the rest.
I cannot get my head around why someone would now vote NO if they voted YES but given the level of stupidity with our ever so smart electorate, well….
YOU CAN DO IT, MORAG!
The small but significant swing to Yes is unsurprising given the events of the last few weeks but did the poll reveal any reasons why those Yes voters would now vote No?
As exciting as these poll findings are, I’m a bit suspicious of the phrasing. Was the term, “Knowing what you know now” actually used in the poll question? If so, that could have quite a significant effect on the actual findings.
Regarding people switching from Yes to No and vice versa, the only scenario which readily comes to mind is deliberate deception. So people who actually voted No might be trying to hint at a drift from Yes to No by falsely reporting their vote and ditto going the other way.
and who will be cast as Elmer?
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6jDcWAWRRHo
The world has gone LoonyTunes since Sep 18; who actually “won”?
I agree though that there is no point in having another referendum until the polling numbers show that Yes is consistently polling 60/40 in favour.
Remarkably consistent with the other two full polls. I cannot describe how cheery I am about those Lib Dem figures. Hell mend them.
The switchers?
The Devomaxers maybe? If you asked a devomax question the crosstab will be interesting
Devomaxer voted No, now Yes (and SNP) as that’s the best way to hold their feet to the fire without going to Sussex
Devomaxer voted Yes reluctantly as there was no DM option. Now No as they expect Smith (or the SNP) to deliver. Future Yes voters next time
wingman 2020 says:
‘What on earth would make anyone change from a YES to a NO?’
– I would simply put that down to the fickleness of people that hate to be on the ‘losing’ side.
Considering the short period of time elapsed since the referendum there is a very definite indication of a seismic shift in public attitudes both to their politics and to individual parties.
I don’t think many realise it yet in WM, but Labour’s referendum strategy has lit the blue touch paper. I suspect Labour themselves and more especially the north British franchise, are more sensitive to the shift, but I doubt there’s a damn thing they can do to make amends or turn things around.
They went too far, they know it and now I suspect they intend to complete the job, rather than hit the reset button. Murphy, above all else, is a wrecker well over to the right of a Labour party already well into Tory territory ideologically. This man is not here to promote reconciliation or offer olive branches. He’s here to wreck our parly and its growing reputation.
Maybe the switherers are Daily Record readers and devotees of BBC Scotland and the Andrew Marr show?
Good results for YES and we still have the SNP conference to come and Nicola’s debut as First Minister which will certainly get publicity!
As regards Mundell, I remarked at a meeting last night that quite honestly I’d rather see him hold the seat than see Scotland turn to UKIP. The look I got from the chair would have curdled milk.
One of the main reasons for the surge in SNP support is down to that moment the day after the NO vote when David Cameron appeared outside No 10 on his victors podium and said:”F*ck you Scotland”.
I’m paraphrasing, of course.
Helena: I cannot get my head around why someone would now vote NO if they voted YES but given the level of stupidity with our ever so smart electorate, well….
Agreed.
Faced with mounting evidence of England’s disregard for most things Scottish they decide No next time around.
Or voted No on Referendum day yet would now vote Yes, as if, special, they required greater evidence of Westminster’s corruption and ineptitude than ordinary mortals, and were prepared to delay their nation’s democracy indefinitely until they were satisfied.
There is one reason why you might conceivably change your mind from yes to no – though it would still be odd. That is the feeling I’ve had since the referendum that there is a huge amount of shit coming in 2015 – cuts, job losses, pensions issues within the UK etc – which would have been blamed on Yes supporters and independence had it been a Yes.
Lloyds, Weirs, cuts, fracking, declining oil price etc etc all – all of them are currently showing up the no side for the liars they were. Had it been yes, we’d be smugly hearing, “told you so” over and over again. I also believe that Labour would have carried on fighting for the union after a Yes and would have made political capital out of every bit of that shit, as well as creating loads of their own. For example, regardless of its result, I think the UK would have refused a currency union, purely so the fall out could be blamed on us.
Had we won with anywhere between 51 and 59%, I’m not sure independence would have survived the 2 year period between now and March 2016. We would have 2 years of ramped up Project Fear, but also using “See we told you this would happen” for every piece of bad news Westminster could possibly engineer for us.
If there was a referendum tomorrow I’d still vote Yes and I can’t imagine any Yes voter changing to a No. But am I as gutted that we lost as I was on the 19th? No. Can I see positives to having lost that one? Definitely, yes. If/when we win independence, it has to be with a large majority and there may be a bit more housekeeping we need to sort out before it can ever really work.
“I cannot think of any scenario since the referendum that would precipitate a change of heart from YES to a NO.”
Being on the winning side perhaps?
Oh and independence would have brought a lot of longstanding UK issues to a head: pensions being a massive one. It would be far better for the UK if they were brought to a head and dealt with, not swept under the carpet to make it far worse for a later generation. But Westminster would have used independence to blame the Jocks for every single one of them. Independence would have become the reason given for them, not just something that shone the spotlight on them.
The headline figure is very plausible.45% voted Yes in September and 46% say they’ll vote for Indy parties in a GE.Quite rational.Then we read the figure for the amount of people who have changed their mind over the course of six weeks.It seems to me this is a clear indication that the will of a large proportion of the Scottish people is very unsettled.Very interesting and it shows how much work we have to do.
Not good enough yet! Neither SV nor EC gives Jim losing East Renfrewshire; must do better. 🙁
Scotland….more Polls than Stringfellows!
What do you mean Stu that it’s implausible to oust David Mundell from his seat? Don’t you know THAT is the one thing thing that stops us down in the South here from committing suicide? 😛
Our one and only hope of a “better day tomorrow” is that we will soon have the possibility of unseating the Cabbage Patch doll that is David Mundell. you take that one last hope away from us and what have we got to live for? 🙂
We are all up for the upcoming fight and we will do our damnedest to win. If he thought he was battered and bruised after the independence referendum he aint seen nothing yet. 😛
Methinks those YES to NO mind changers are just having a giggle and were probably No voters all along–just too damned ashamed to tell the polling company at the outset that they had actually voted No in the referendum. So, when asked again, their proud ScotButt / Britnat goggles momentarily blinded them again and they said they’d vote No next time.
Aye right!
What Lesley-Anne said, again.
Time alone will tell . I will be happy if the SNP make substanial gains in 2015 but common sense tells me that Labour will hold on to a large number of their Westminster seats.
@ handclapping
I really feel the Funeral March would be a more appropriate theme tune for Labour, specially if the undertaker Murphy becomes Scottish leader. Wagner’s too “upfull”!
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5NKMk8IpcV8
That sure is a lovely pallet that moribund is standing on, so much more classier than an irn-bru crate.
Strange indeed that a YES voter would turn to no.
O/T (slightly) more pro Indy images from Lewes
http://rt.com/uk/202903-lewes-bonfire-putin-salmond/
Mmm. The funeral march from Twilight of the Gods is way too good for Miliband. Fabulous music.
Roberto,
Common sense tells you that people who voted for independence will go out in their droves to vote for a unionist party?..weird.But you could be right.
Helena Brown says:
6 November, 2014 at 3:55 pm
“I cannot get my head around why someone would now vote NO if they voted YES but given the level of stupidity with our ever so smart electorate, well….”
Eee bhaa gum, there’s nowt as queer as folk, eh!
🙂
Thanks, Stu.
Interesting stats, a bit more sobering and plenty food for thought.
Can we now get a mass drive on to get some sort of wee book or
brochure going through every door in the country from January?
There is a reason why some Yes could change to No and that’s Lab supporters.
A lot of them voted Yes so that they could vote Lab in 2016.
My Lab friend is an angry Yes, she is fizzing at Labs drop in support and is blaming the ‘populist’ SNP SG.
Thinks that the media is too easy on the SNP – I Know – and everyone’s just horrible to Ed.
There is no limit to which staunch Lab voters will blame everyone except those who are to blame – ie Labour
@handclapping
East Ren had a large majority for Jim M on a high turnout. It’s difficult to imagine a scenario where he can be unseated. He’s right wing enough to appeal to the Eastwood side of the constituency and stands for Labour which wins the Barrhead et al side.
I might tactically vote Tory to reduce his majority and wipe the smirk off his face though.
Price of oil and salmond resigning will be a reason for people switching from yes to no
“9% of people who voted Yes eight weeks ago would now vote No”
Knowing what they know now? They must have been the soft Yesses, then, although god knows what’s swung them back to No, given what’s been going on since Sept 19th. I suppose a lot depends on where they get their news from.
@wingman 2020
I reckon some people might have been inclined to change from yes to no because of the vote-rigging accusation etc?
@ Morag
I was thinking of the late Labour Party. You know, that one founded by Keir Hardie. The one that used to have principles and aspired to free working people in the UK from wage slavery, disease, deprivation, unemployment and squalor. Sadly passed away.
(it’s Chopin btw)
These figures are great news. In more normal times there might a danger of a fall off in support for SNP and Greens nearer the General Election. However the Smith Commission, no matter what it proposes, will ensure that support stays or increases to ensure that proposals are implemented after May 2015. Indeed the less Smith gets agreement on the greater that support might be.
One concern is how the SNP and Greens portray the deal that is reached and their strategy for the future based on their part in the negotiations.
Actually, it’s not that outrageous to suggest Mundell losing his seat – we got rid of every Tory in 1997, maybe we could do it again?
(Well, every BLUE Tory, anyway…)
Stuart, these polls that you organise now and again are never a waste of time, nor money. If anything …I literally take your polls as the safest set of data and information when it comes to these things since a lot of thought goes not into the question, but of also other possible factors.
I can guess if you say that you were down to the last few pennies, that a wee fundraising is near rearing its head.
Mealer I never said that people who voted for independence would vote for labour. I believe there will be a lot of tactical voting in a number of constituencies to limit the impact of the SNP. I for one will not build my hopes up for a wipe out of Labour . If it happens I will be delighted but it will not
@ panda paws
I’m in East Ren too. Have been voting SNP in Holyrood elections since 2007 and I tried voting Tory last time in Wm vote to oust The Odious JM to no avail (had to go home for a shower afterwards too as putting my x next to a Tory felt dirty lol). Anyhoo I’m struggling to see how we can overturn his very large majority. Have joined local Eastwood SNP so hopefully we can at least give him a fright…assuming he stands of course!
I suspect any Yessers changing to No must be Devo Maxers who believe they are going to get enough extra powers to satisfy them!
Slightly O/T but somebody mentioned pensions, on Manx Radio this morning (I don’t listen to uk radio) it was reported that there had been disquiet due to the fact that if everybody stopped paying there NI contributions then their pension pot would only last for four years before it was empty.
One of the Manx MHK (Member of the house of keys) stated that the UK was a lot worse off, they would only have four months before it was empty and its forecast to be completely empty next year.
The problem is trying to get through to OAP’s , one the other day said to me its about time you don’t down that YES sign in your window, I said why? we lost round 1 and round 2 is in progress, they said it will never happen and Im happy with the way it is.
They would not listen when I tried to explain that the UK pension was amongst the worst in Europe. I don’t see any chance of us getting through to these folk, but there number is getting fewer, demographics are on our side.
Given the scale of the NO vote in the Borders I’d be amazed if the SNP were to oust Michael Moore at the GE. The more likely scenario (god help us) is a Tory win.
Could a number of people now saying they’ll vote SNP be people who used to say, “I would vote for them but I don’t want independence” and now that the threat of Independence has been removed (sort of! You know what I mean) they feel like they can now comfortably vote SNP because they have just seen that a vote for SNP isn’t necessarily a vote for Independence?
That was an awfy long sentence.
Very interesting news. I am heartened that the YES vote is currently polling at around 51% or 52%. This is a very important milestone.
Next up will be getting it to 54% or 55% — and staying there. I do not think this will happen for a good year, and the figure may even fall a little as all eyes are on London until we pass May 2015.
Delighted at the Lib Dem vote collapse. I think Labour can only haemorrhage votes, particularly as the vow unwinds and the Red Tories are seen to be offering even less devo than the Blue Tories.
Ousting Mundell: of course you can do it! Especially if the rUK polls show the Lib Dem vote collapsing and the electorate see it will be pointless having a Lib Dem MP (not that that is anything new, of course!).
Incredible how bad Labour are fairing in England. To be honest, I would be quite happy for the following two-party, two-country scenario — for England to emerge as a largely Tory-UKIP disaster zone and for Scotland to largely vote for the SNP.
1. This would make people understand that the real anti-Tory party is the SNP.
2. It would once again highlight the fundamental difference between the two countries and hasten independence.
I really see our two countries growing increasingly apart. Scotland moves even more to the left, England moves even more to the right… we organise ourselves inside the system, the best the English can do is riot or throw fireworks at policemen… England cannot see beyond the US Neocon model, we aspire towards Scandinavia and Europe…
So, in a way, an ending of the Treaty of Union is not so much a choice on a ballot paper; it is merely a reflection of what has already come to pass…
Good to see the SNP having a consistently healthy lead over Labour and the rest. Hope it continues.
Not sure if this has already been highlighted but an example of the ugly face of British nationalism:
https://archive.today/gD6C3
An effigy of Alex Salmond was set alight at a bonfire parade last night – despite claims it had been blocked by police – and EU chief Jose Manuel Barroso is next.
Proposals to burn the Scottish First Minister in Lewes, East Sussex, sparked outrage and a complaint was made to police – but pictures emerged online today showing one of the models at the centre of a fireworks display.
One effigy had the politician standing at 16ft tall and holding a sign reading ‘45%’, which refers to the proportion of Scottish people who voted for independence from the UK in September, while the Loch Ness Monster peers over his shoulder.
Great to get more confirmation of high SNP polling for 2015. I’m hoping for some polling to come on the vote potential of the so-called Yes Alliance to put to bed the issue over whether it would be a help or a hindrance, although based on the Green vote in this poll, it doesn’t look promising.
It would be interesting to know who the Don’t Knows are swithering between. Lab/Con? SNP/Lab? SNP/Grn? Con/Ukip?
Vote Labour get Tory. Remind them what happened in May 2010.
It was Labour who ushered in the Tory government as they shunned the constructive approach to a progressive alliance by the SNP which would have had a working majority comprising of Labour, Lib Dems, all the Scottish Welsh and Irish parties (except Unionists who back the Tories) and the Green MP, but backwoodsmen like Ed Balls treated the Lib Dem negotiators with contempt.
Labour’s tribal hatred of the SNP caused them to ditch the “progressive alliance” which would have had a clear majority of seats in Westminster.
Given the general election results in England, and proposed boundary changes which will eliminate Labour’s chances of ever getting a majority in England, do Labour voters in Scotland really prefer living in a permanent Con Dem Nation rather than vote for independence.
Interesting results.
So, is that now 2 polls asking about independence since the vote, and both returning a Yes majority (albeit slim, 52-48, 51-49) and I don’t want to see this question asked every month or so, but if we keep a tally of this number/support for Indy through polls, could help aid the next referendum.
Those Yessers who would go No, I cannot understand – no doubt soft Yes, but knowing what they know no – they would vote no? What – the loss of banking jobs, the new break through technology for plunging more oil, the so called I absolutley test writing it so I won’t but that that piece of shite pasted up by the Daily Reocrd by the 3 leaders, well that being reduced to absolute nothing and a piece of rubbish.
Actually, if you look at the long-term trajectory of support for independence, the increasing/majority for YES is still in line. People are slowly coming round to support independence, they are just two months bloody late!
It will be interesting to see where this goes between now and the GE, given that BBC Labour’s attention is now diverted elsewhere.
Sorry re Mundell I was sidetracked, my mind was wandering on Holywood constituencies in that region, because I have a relative who is Lib Dem in that area and I was thinking of something she once said….. what I wanted to ask was:
Is UKIP making inroads in Mundell’s constituency? If there are a lot of the Tory types, is there much chance of them splitting the vote? It would seem to me that the UKIP are more of an “urban” party, but I may be wrong…
From Guardian website right now:
” ‘If I am elected Scottish Labour leader I will campaign every day and in many ways to make sure hard working families in Scotland get the pay rise they deserve’.
Above is an an extract from Murphy’s campaign for leadership of the Scotish Labour party, presumably endorsed by Miliband and uttered this afternoon.
Bearing in mind the oft used phrase ‘hard working families’ is identified with IDS, Osborne and Cameron.someone in the Labour party needs their head examined .. especially if this is the quality of argument that Miliband and his acolytes are going to use in May.
That phrase should be the death knell to Murphy’s career if the Scottish leadership voters twig.
It shows that he doesn’t care about the unemployed, disabled and all the weaker members of society that socialism is supposed to prorect. Just another Tory Lite!
The Milibandoliers have completely lost the plot!”
Interesting poll, but there is a LONG six months ahead, so let’s not get complacent in any way.
UK Labour in meltdown as well as their branch office. If Murphy gets the job, that will add votes to the SNP.
UK Tories have the spectre of UKIP to drag them down at bit. The Scotch Tories are very low key at the moment, but beware of the “silent” voter effect. Remember, they are good at getting their vote out.
Lib dems- gone, gone, gone
A lot depends on what the Smith Commission proposes. I have confidence that John Swinney in particular will push hard and I hope it is revealed which one of the Unionist parties were the least willing to give the Scottish parliament the powers it needs. (It will probably be Labour).
MSM will target Nicola relentlessly after the Christmas holidays, so the 82,000 SNP members and pro-indy parties need to work really hard on the ground to counter the onslaught.
Finally, a SNP vote for the Westminster elections is sometimes questioned regarding its relevance, but given the probability of a hung parliament, this is a unique opportunity to persuade voters that the SNP will hold the balance of power and wield maximum pressure to deliver the required Home Rule, Devo Max etc, for Scotland.
Exciting times ahead.
Kenny
“We aspire to Scandinavia…” That’s where I’m looking to.Not Cuba.
Ruth Davidson is hosting a drinks reception for the Tories in the Cairndale Hotel, Dumfries 7pm on Tues, 2nd Dec to lay out their plans to preserve and protect the UK and see off the separatist threat. She very much hopes to see me there – perhaps she will.
@cath
Good comment! I didn’t think of things like that but I do agree with you! Light at the end of the tunnel?
“We will oust Mundell, with a little bit of help from UKIP heavily targetting that seat”
Good point.
I think it impolitic and injudicous deflating calls for a second referendum unless Yes achieves a consistent 60% polling. (What ‘consistent’ means and for how long is a never stated.)
If Salmond had demanded that before moving ahead we would be waiting until doomsday for a plebiscite to be arranged. The knowledge of how Scotland is cheated and lied to would never have been brought to the attention of the masses.
We will know soon enough when the public mood is ready, probably when protest arises over unpopular policies and creeping poverty.
The Fear Campaign made great headway bombarding us with egregious, inflated numbers.
Let’s not give them another one!
Milady de Winter says:
I suspect any Yessers changing to No must be Devo Maxers who believe they are going to get enough extra powers to satisfy them!
You may be right. There certainly were a few pensioners who voted YES by post and then had second thoughts, espicially after the Vow was published. They are now possibly waiting for the promise to be delivered. An appointment with disappointment looms.
Will do a deal with you down there…. You get Mundell, and we’ll get Carmichael. Believe me, it’s on.
Thanks for asking the referendum question again (and it was weighted properly unlike YouGov). However the wording is different and perhaps a tad loaded
Knowing what you know now, if the independence referendum was tomorrow how would you vote? [my bold]
YouGov merely asked:
If there was a referendum tomorrow on Scotland’s future and this was the question, how would you vote?
Should Scotland be an independent country?
and got what (adjusted) Yes 48% No 52%. Either way what is clear that a rerun referendum would probably be even closer – certainly too close to call.
I assume that Panelbase are continuing to use the ‘Scottish Skier adjustment’ – weighting by place of birth – as indeed YouGov has continued to do. Their tables show the difference it makes.
I think the difference between the projections are because Electoral Calculus uses proportional swing while the others use uniform. Neither may be appropriate in such extreme circumstances as the increase in SNP vote we see here. But in reality I can’t see Carmichael going (the Lib Dems even won Orkney and Shetland in the Euros with twice the SNP vote) Mundell might be vulnerable if the ABT vote groups round the SNP, though the same thing may help Moore keep his seat. Kennedy’s personal vote may save his seat (maybe Thurso too?).
UKIP won’t be a threat anywhere, even with this poll which shows them very high for Scotland. Their vote is too evenly spread – even their best LA area at the Euros (Moray oddly enough, not the Borders) was only about 3 points over the average of 10% or so.
But on the other hand even some of the ‘safer’ Labour seats may be more vulnerable because those were often the areas where Yes scored best. Turnout will be crucial in many of these, though not East Ren who always top the turnout table anyway. Though even Murphy may be vulnerable to a three-way split, especially if the SNP can convince some No voters on a ‘good for Scotland basis’.
As I said, I think I’d rather see Mundell hold the seat than feel I was living among a load of people prepared to vote for UKIP. I had enough of that when I lived in Sussex.
Once devomax legislation is introduced in January at Westminster the SNP total will begin to recede, it is just keeping the pressure up. The total for the Yes parties (SNP and Green at 46%) and the No parties (Tories+Labour+LD+UKIP at 53%) is roughly equivalent to the 55-45% referendum result.
The SNP are in 4th in Mundell’s seat, he will probably hold on, the Tories could also add Roxburgh and Aberdeenshire and Kincardine from the LDs. Mundell was also SDP in the early 80s interestingly
Good luck Morag <3
That 3% for Lib Dem spells good news for getting rid of the Lib Dem MP in our area. Fingers crossed!
Mundell – latter-day example of what Scots used to call ‘a sweetie wife.’
These results regarding indy voting intentions are really, really good. It is hard to comprehend just how far the movement has progressed in just a few years. Ten years ago, people would have sneered if you had suggested the SNP being Government or having a majority or indeed holding an independence referendum which was only lost by 5%.
Just remember, the BBC used to love cooing about how only a tiny minority of Scots want independence, when the polls showed 27 or 30% in favour.
Scotland really has changed, and it is up to all of us to build on that, by word of mouth.
These polling results are very, very good news, and bad news for the treacherous RED Tories in Scotland.
@wingman 2020 says,
“What on earth would make anyone change from a YES to a NO?”
Alex Salmonds’ resignation maybe?
Morag says:
6 November, 2014 at 5:37 pm
As I said, I think I’d rather see Mundell hold the seat than feel I was living among a load of people prepared to vote for UKIP. I had enough of that when I lived in Sussex.
One constutency is going to have to endure the shame of declaring the highest UKIP support in Scotland. Which one is it going to be?
Moronic BBC trailer for yet another ‘Best of British’ series:
“Join Penelope Keith on a journey through what is quintessentially British – our English villages.”
Fuck off!
Apparently Dumfries and Galloway was one of the areas that had a high support for UKIP in the E.U. elections Kenny. Of course that doesn’t mean much in my view cause Labour were, apparently, pushing their supporters to vote UKIP in some areas just to ensure the SNP did not get that third E.U. seat. In the 2010 and 2011 elections UKIP didn’t feature much at all, much like the rest of Scotland. Now that good old Nige has won his first seat in Westminster and in all likelihood will win Rochester and Strood as well then everything is up in the air down here now I think.
Where folks voted UKIP to keep the SNP out of Europe they are now faced with a very serious question indeed.
1) Do they vote UKIP again to stop the SNP resulting in a Tory win.
2) Do they vote Labour in an attempt to unseat Mundell, Labour came second in 2010, and as a result let the SNP sneak the seat
3) Do they vote Tory to ensure that the SNP are kept out.
This is the mountain that we have to climb to unseat the Cabbage Patch kid.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/constituency/814.stm
At first glance it looks bad but if you stop and think about it in terms of the polls at present then it is definitely doable. First off the vast majority of the Lib Dem vote will vanish and go elsewhere, NOT to the Tories, I suspect they could well end up voting SNP or not even voting at all.
Second, as around 40% of Labour supporters voted YES in the referendum then I believe we can gain a significant number of Labour voters to the SNP voter count as well.
We are now just left with who actually will vote for Mundell. With Good old Nige in a far better position now than he has ever been down South I do think that the Tory vote will actually drop as Tory voters defect to UKIP.
So don’t despair fellow Duymfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale voters we CAN do this in May next year. 😛
“As exciting as these poll findings are, I’m a bit suspicious of the phrasing. Was the term, “Knowing what you know now” actually used in the poll question? If so, that could have quite a significant effect on the actual findings.”
Yes it was. It’s a completely neutral phrase. If anything, the only solid thing to have happened since the vote is the fall in oil prices, which would nudge towards No.
Sometimes you do get unexpected information from polls,and I can’t get my head around the swing from yes to no. Some folk must be giving up or hoping for the unelected lord to give us some crumbs,even though nothing will pass in the UK parliament.
We will get there in the end,I am not giving up. Ever.
@ husker who posted at 5.11 pm
After all the confusion yesterday about effigy burning i had a think about the issue, bearing in mind I have always found it repugnant wherever it happens.
In my view the effigies themselves are not the problem, no matter how offensive they seem to some people (freedom of expression).
Burning (or blowing them up with fireworks as i understand they do in sussex) certainly is an issue because of the symbolism of destruction.
There are alternatives to effigy destruction, alternatives that create jobs, generate tourism etc.
The one i found was not in the UK.There are probably others.
Have a look at
http://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2014/11/06/no-to-burning-effigies/
Oh Danny Boy, the buroo, the buroo is callin…
If these trends continue, let’s hope we get rid of the filth that is the ‘chief secretary to the treasury’…
Now that’ll be an enjoyable experience
Lesley Anne says
“Our one and only hope of a “better day tomorrow” is that we will soon have the possibility of unseating the Cabbage Patch doll that is David Mundell. you take that one last hope away from us and what have we got to live for? :)”
Cabbage patch doll?
Oh?
http://tinyurl.com/ln9j378
http://tinyurl.com/plxqqow
I can’t see the SNP ever taking East Renfrewshire I am afraid. Jim Murphy is the perfect MP for them — rabidly right-wing, Friend of Israel, Labour (for Barrhead). The SNP is nowhere there and, in a way, that is an endorsement for what the SNP stands, because I would say it is Scotland’s “nastiest” constituency, lots of selfish and stuck-up people with some inexplicable self-loathing of Scotland.
At the last election, if my memory serves me well, the Tory candidate was a rather insipid youngish fellow. Murphy will be boosted by all the media attention surrounding his forthcoming “election”.
The only scenario that could help the SNP is if the Tories heavily target the seat, along with UKIP at the same time. It would certainly be a feather in the Tory’s cap if they could take it. There could be a three-way split between Labour, Tory and UKIP/Lib Dem, but I still feel that it not enough to help the SNP. If you live there, don’t vote Tory, vote SNP and at least your vote will count towards the total votes cast in the country….
Lewes parade.
Those pictures of the burning crosses are like something from the Southern States of America and the KKK.
There’s probably quite a few who weren’t quite sure went in with the intention of voting No, got there and then went ahh f it yes. Now reverting to their original intention.
O/T but radio 4 now leading on calls for Mlliband to pack it in.
Only applies to England, at the time of posting. But shocking wake up call for the elderly. I entered bogus figures and was surprised at the amount of money the elderly will be charged for residential care in England from 2016. I am hopeful Scotland will be able to avoid taking a similar path.
http://caltonjock.com/2014/11/06/care-and-support-services-are-means-tested-and-services-are-not-free-to-everyone-the-care-cap-calculator-will-identify-your-payments-from-2016/
Lesley-Anne says: Apparently Dumfries and Galloway was one of the areas that had a high support for UKIP
A bit higher than average, but not by particularly much. If you download the results D&G was 13.4% UKIP in the Euros, the Borders was 12.4%. Higher than the average of 10.4%, but not by much. As I said it was really uniform through Scotland.
Incidentally it also wasn’t even as anti-Yes as you might think. Panelbase weighted their pre-referendum polls by recalled Euro vote as well as Holyrood 2011 so we can see how people who say they voted for each Party in May say they will vote in the Referendum (ignoring DKs). Based on the last four Panelbase polls before 18 September these give Yes percentages of:
Con 3%
Lab 28%
LD 17%
SNP 95%
Green 72%
UKIP 39%
So nearly 40% of UKIP voters in May may have chosen Yes.
Interesting and keeps the hopes high for May.
I alway let ‘common sense’ kick in with polls. There is a significant percentage (I believe) who would not be honest when asked these questions. I will qualify this a little by stating I have not been asked, but if I was asked the questions above, I would probably say I voted No but now I would vote Yes, as that’s what I would want the poll conclusion to be.
I’m guessing I’m not alone in that mentality. Therefore, based on guess, instance, common sense I think the findings that 9% Yes would now vote No and 14% No would now vote Yes, in reality will actually be more like:
1% Yes would now vote No and 6% No would now vote Yes. (removing 8% from each who instinctively would do what I would do).
Great and exciting findings. I’m looking forward to the next post Stu…..
Support for independence is the weed that grows in the flower beds of Britain when the establishment spray their BBC and MSM herbicide elsewhere.
It seems inconceivable to have anything other than Lib Dem or Tory in the Borders. Dare we dream otherwise?
To say that someone can symbolically burn me just because I voted Yes, can be justified under the term ‘freedom of expression’, is simply offensive beyond comprehension.
corporate.communications@eastsussex.gov.uk
22:33 (20 hours ago)
to me
This is a copy for your records of the email you sent to East Sussex County Council. You may also get an automatic response from the team you contacted.
FROM: James Moodie
MESSAGE:
The effigy of Alex Salmond has disgusted a huge amount of Scot’s that know he is the most decent politician going. It show’s a level of ignorance (& arrogance) that betrays the decent people in your region, and some would say very much wider. Perhaps before considering running down the UKIP road, and taking cognisance of the Elderly moving to Scotland for the free care and prescriptions we have…ask yourselves who fought for that. Personally? I’d revoke both to teach a lesson that might get through. Absolutely abhorrent. I await the “it wasn’t us e-mail” reply.
As expected the Blue Tories are stirring it up against Gromit and co, watch out for the Red Tory supporters coming out in a massive sympathy vote for Gromit.
I also see The Ginger Dickhead from the Limp dums is banging on about fuel prices again ( is there an election coming up?) If I have heard him talking about this once I have heard it a thousand times and he has done Feck all about it apart from blame eveyone else. With all the back stabbing going on at Westminster they really are BITTER together. Gary
@Ann at 6.12
completely agree – the burning crosses stir up some atavistic memories and emotions.
Mind you, even without the crosses, the darkness and the burning brands make a big contribution to creating an unsettled mindset.
Bonfire Night in England almost coincides with the Celtic Samhain (hallowe’en) which is a benign festival in Scotland, Ireland, the USA and Europe where it is often celebrated, following the US fshion.
By virtue of that Act of Parliament I mentioned in my post (see reply to Husker above), the under-tones of Bonfire Night in England can appear more menacing. Murky waters indeed
Have the Libdems paid their police bill yet?
If these polls hold up then I think we will see a ‘stop the nats’ drive from unionists which will amount to the unionist incumbent being voted for by their unionist opponents in many seats, leading to a drop in labour support in Dumfries, a drop in Tory support in Berwickshire, etc. as they vote instead for the only candidate who can keep the SNP out. We are either going to see a polarisation of the electorate around the constitutional question, or the unionists, being split in a number of directions and falling to the temptations of UKIP, are going to lose a great deal of seats.
@ Morag
Lesley Anne.
Here,s some helpers in defeating your cabbage patch doll ( mundell )
Lavendar Mc Dade
Cabbage Jack
Beau Weasel
They dont like cabbage patch dolls.
Boris: Only applies to England
Only now spotted the faces in your avater, Boris. Neat!
Labour back benchers calling for Miliband to step down, now theres a new can of worms. Miliband has no charisma and I don’t see any other Labour MP with any conviction (many should be convicted though), so I don’t see where they think they are going to find a new leader from, they could offer the job to Jim Murphy, if they think he’s good enough for the Scottish branch office then he should be good enough for the top job in Westminster, lets face it he can lie with conviction, can talk down to you from his irn-bru crate for ages without mentioning anything of substance, knows how to screw the system to ensure that he has plenty smackeroonies and has the photogenic appeal of a orang-utan’s ass. I recon he’s is fully qualified.
HYUFD at 5.41
“Once devomax legislation is introduced in January at Westminster the SNP total will begin to recede”
Any proof to back up this assertion?
Once devomax legislation is introduced in January at Westminster the SNP total will begin to rise is just a bold an assertion and just as likely.
Can I caution again against making judgements about the task of the SNP/YES Alliance on the basis of the 2010 Scottish results. These are not viable as they represented a Scotland voting heavily for the candidate likeliest to beat the Tory which meant that the SNP vote actually dropped in places as even SNP supporters backed Labour or Lib Dem candidates best placed to beat the Tory. The SNP vote went up in seats the SNP held at that election and down in most of the others. The 2011 Scottish Parliamentary result is probably nearer the mark
Kenny says: I can’t see the SNP ever taking East Renfrewshire
Although the SNP only got 9% in 2010, Yes scored 36.8% in the referendum. If the Conservatives continue to poll 30% as they did in 2005 and 2010 and the SNP take Yes voters from Labour and Lib Dems then they might possible win the seat with 35%. Murphy clearly squeezed the Lib Dem vote hard as an anti-Tory thing in 2010 – but won’t
be able to do the same to Yes voters in 2015.
This exemplifies the danger the SNP are to the other Parties in Westminster elections. You need 50% to win a referendum, but, under First Past The Post, 45% will sweep the board. The process of consolidation of Yes voters behind the SNP (which has been going on all year but has accelerated in the last month), while No voters are divided between various Parties, turns the SNP’s weakness – its evenness of support, into a strength when it starts to poll over 35% across Scotland.
In addition, those 2011 SNP voters who voted No (and there were a lot of them) now feel able to support them at Westminster because independence is currently not immanent, but further devolution, which they trust the SNP to use well at Holyrood, is.
Personally, I just don’t think we should take any of these results too much to heart. Nothing will count until May 2015 and, until then, we can’t be complacent.
Having said that, from the people I know in D&G who are Tories, they are VERY receptive to the UKIP message so if they are anything to go by there could be quite an easy run at Mundell.
As an aside, I can’t help but acknowledge how amusing a D&G vote for UKIP is given the absolute non-existence of immigrants there. OK, they may have a bit better experience of the EU and legislation from a farming perspective but, as we know, complaints about the Common Agricultural Policy don’t feature so high on UKIP rhetoric as opposed to, say, their “let’s get rid of anyone slightly tanned” policy.
At the GE 2015, because of the uncertainty, with England now with a 4 horse race, Slabour (red tories, Conservatives Ukip will all be trying to win the seats, I do not think they will thinking about tactically voting, because they can’t afford to let the other party win.
For the next generation…..
‘A Flag Party’ – grousebeater-wordpress
Can Miliband hold the leadership until May?
Could the Labour vote go even further South if UK Labour dip even lower than 29%
…………..more popcorn!
So, the new chairman of the press complaints commission is the editor of the Daily Mail.
And there is this: “Lord Smith chairs both Weir Group plc and SSE. Both have written 2 Smith Commission asking for no further significant devo”.
I think we should be moving from being angry to bloody fuming angry.
I haven’t read all the comments yet, but how the f*”‘k can you go from Yes to No; knowing what we know now?
Lesley-Anne, just had a look at your link to Mundell’s win in 2010. He got 38%. All we need to do is get the 36% of folk who voted yes in the region to vote SNP, doddle, nae bother. The UKIP vote will take Mundell under the 36% for certain. Definitely doable, Morag.
CRAIGthePICT says:
6 November, 2014 at 6:34 pm
“There is a significant percentage (I believe) who would not be honest when asked these questions. I will qualify this a little by stating I have not been asked, but if I was asked the questions above, I would probably say I voted No but now I would vote Yes, as that’s what I would want the poll conclusion to be.
I’m guessing I’m not alone in that mentality.”
______________
Well said, Craig.
And no, your not alone in thinking that way.
I would certainly answer in the exact same way for same reasons.
When it comes to polls my philosophy is very simple:
To believe in polls we must first accept that all participants
are being honest – but white man speak with forked tongue.
😉
Regarding people switching to No having voted Yes, my work colleague has said that’s what he intends to do.
His reasoning is that the referendum decision should have been final and as such he would vote the opposite of whatever side called the second referendum.
To be fair, he told me he would do that well before the end of the first campaign so he is being consistent.
People who hate politics and the prospect of another referendum campaign may choose to punish the Yes side for calling another one.
O/T Livestream interview with Blair Jenkins starting soon (at the top of the hour).
Many have pointed out that the SNP polling figures tend to sag a little on the actual day. But that might be mitigated this time around by the boost provided by having an army of new and dedicated foot soldiers to the tune of many tens of thousands! I am sure they will be put to good use and am sure they did not join up to sit and twiddle their thumbs….
No-one, personne, neimand, nessuno, nadie, ingen, nary ane, would ever change from YES to NO. Folks are just messing with the polls. Someone should do a poll on how truthful subjects answer on polls. I’d guess about 10% at least just ‘extract the michael’. Is ‘extracting the michael’ factored into any polls?
@ One Scot who wrote at 6.35 pm
” To say that someone can symbolically burn me just because I voted Yes, can be justified under the term ‘freedom of expression’, is simply offensive beyond comprehension”.
i agree. lots of other people agree.
i really do hope you didn’t mis-understand what i was saying.
Thoughts about complex ideas are hard to express without running the risk of misunderstandings and i am no expert, so maybe I wasn’t clear enough.
What i wanted to say is that the
creation and display of an effigy (however distorted in the name of satire) may be accepted under the law of “freedom of speech”. Note “may”. i am not saying they will always be accepted but let’s agree they might be.
Burning any effigy is another kettle of fish (destruction = hatred etc)
There are alternative ways of enjoying both bonfires and effigies with no need for burnings,
ways that enhance the local society
i do hope that message came out clearly in what i’ve been saying here and in the post on my site.
i would appreciate it if you would care to let me know if you find any ambiguities- after all we are all learning here
Thanks in advance
http://eurofree3.wordpress.com/2014/11/06/no-to-burning-effigies/
O/T I’ve just noticed that if you type ‘Wings Over Scotland’ into Google it comes up a ‘In the News’ box in the listings, just as it would if you typed in say ‘Guardian’ or ‘Huffington Post’. Seems that at last Google has recognised WOS as a bonefide news source.
James @ 6.42 mentions ‘free care for the elderly’ in Scotland. Someone touched on it in a comment the other day as well. Can I just remind everyone that care is not free for the elderly in Scotland, only one element of it ie personal care (washing, dressing, feeding). I have a very elderly friend with profound mobility problems caused by arthritis who can see to her own personal care but required assistance with some essential household duties. She was paying the local council £17 per hour (!) from her pension and benefits for a couple of hours or so of home care per week until she went private. If you enter residential care, I’m afraid that with a house to sell or sufficient other assets you are likely to be paying as much as £2000 per month or more and that is AFTER the personal care element equivalent to about £200 per week is deducted from the total. There are, of course, various savings limits below which you begin to pay on a sliding scale. Sorry to be O/T on this, but it needs to be said because ‘down the road’ they think we get everything for nothing courtesy of them, and it doesn’t help when that impression is given by wrong information from ‘up here’, so easily repeated by the useless MSM, too. Please don’t give them any more ammunition with which to beat us up and if loads of elderly English people are rushing north to take advantage they may be in for a shock!
ben madigan @ 6 November, 2014 at 5:54 pm
Interesting article Ben.
I’m not offended by the burning effigy and TBH, considering the bile that came from south of the border during the referendum debate, it didn’t surprise me.
However, this sort of behaviour needs to be highlighted to show the British nationalism isn’t the warm, fuzzy feeling of the family of nations that the British nationalists like us to believe especially those who hide under that equally warm and fuzzy tag of unionists.
Everybodys looking forward to the May election, making predictions. There,s a fly in the ointment before that, the projected Power Cuts,oh God make it true,4candles at Ackrights store.
The thing about Mundell’s seat is that it’s carved out of three different council areas. In Clydesdale we’re kind of fighting Labour, in Tweeddale the LibDems, and in Dumfriesshire maybe more the Tories. This is tricky. On the other hand it does suggest that the opposition vote can be split.
Although the SNP was 4th last time, times have changed. We weren’t really trying in 2010 to be honest. Our candidate, while a nice girl, wasn’t the strongest (hi Aileen!). And it was all before 2011. If you look at Electoral Calculus now, the SNP is shown as the main and indeed only credible challenger to Mundell. They give Mundell a 79% chance of holding the seat and the SNP a 17% chance of capturing it. Nobody else is in with a shout.
This is one of the things our campaign is challenged by. We have to get it over that the SNP is the anti-Tory vote, in the context of both LibDems and Labour collapsing. And also that it’s the party for the Yes voters – and we did have over 30% Yes in the area, more or less.
We’re certainly going to be trying this time. I don’t know how soon we’ll be able to name a candidate but I hope we find someone who can really put Mundell on the spot.
Ow! I just went to check the Electoral Calculus figures, and they’ve updated them to include the latest polls. They now have the SNP actually winning the bloody seat!
Mundell 44% chance of holding
SNP 54% chance of taking the seat
That of course depends on these polls holding up which seems a tad unlikely, but it does show an awful lot of things are up for grabs these days.
LIMITS TO FREEDOM OF EXPRESSION
Limitations on freedom of expression are made comparatively explicit in the formal agreements on human rights drawn up by governments. The European Convention on Human Rights (1950), for instance takes the wording of the Universal Declaration almost intact into its Article 10, but adds important further statements specifying a number of those limits.
European Convention on Human Rights, Article 10
1. Everyone has the right to freedom of expression. This right shall include freedom to hold opinions and to receive and impart information and ideas without interference by public authority and regardless of frontiers. This article shall not prevent States from requiring the licensing of broadcasting, television or cinema enterprises.
2. The exercise of these freedoms, since it carries with it duties and responsibilities, may be subject to such formalities, conditions, restrictions or penalties as are prescribed by law and are necessary in a democratic society, in the interests of national security, territorial integrity or public safety, for the prevention of disorder or crime, for the protection of health or morals, for the protection of the reputation or rights of others, for preventing the disclosure of information received in confidence, or for maintaining the authority and impartiality of the judiciary.
My emphasis.
thanks husker – glad you enjoyed the post.
All we can do is to continue asking questions about what the union really signifies.
I don’t think people should get too hung up about winning every possible seat. It seems to me that the best result, for future bargaining and diplomacy, would be a majority of pro-Indie MPs and a majority of pro-Indie votes. Realistically the SNP is going to do all the seat winning. It may not get over 50 seats but it should be confident enough to encourage the Greens, SSP and any other Radical Independence groups to stand in their own right where possible and bag some extra votes for the cause. (They’ll get their reward in seats in 2016.)
On SKY news the mighty Mcternan confidently predicts a Labour victory in 2015. So the polls and our feelings are all wrong obviously. Adam Boulton just sits there and grins, but doesn’t mention Australia or the 2011 Holyrood election and McTernan’s totally wrong predictions.
How do these people get away with it?
@wingman 2020 says:6 November, 2014 at 3:50 pm:
“I cannot think of any scenario since the referendum that would precipitate a change of heart from YES to a NO.”
Oh! “That’s an easy one to answer …
It has to be the only significant thing that has changed since the vote … … …
It’s all those folk we all met during the campaign whe said …
…
…
Ah! Hate yon alicsammin – and now Alex has resigned!
Ah’ll get ma kilt.
:-))
Morag: I heard Councillor Andrew Wood from Nithsdale has put his name forward. Don’t know of anyone else yet.
The latest from the ED must stay campaign:
https://archive.today/eJqTT
The Daily Nut Job has a leaked memo from the Tories about how to help keep Ed in his job. The referendum paragraph is interesting:
“McOmnishambles
In fact, avoid mentioning Scotland altogether – Miliband’s lacklustre performance during the referendum, the resignation of the leader of the Scottish Labour Party, the resignation of the deputy leader, the poll showing that the party’s on course to lose all but four seats, etc. If the subject comes up, point out that support is bound to rally as the election approaches and it dawns on the Conservative-hating Scots that their best hope of kicking Cameron out of Downing Street is to vote Labour. If possible, try and use the phrase “effing Tories” and then take advantage of the embarrassed laughter to change the subject.
Better Together or what?
Are you reading this Mr Murphy?
Jim Murphy may have a big majority in East Renfrewshire but he wants to be First Minister in Holyrood. So are his electorate going to support a man in the 2015 Westminster election , who wants to leave Westminster for Holyrood in 2016?
There are a lot of Tory voters in ER, which used to be a Tory seat and you can be sure the Tories they will target Jim Murphy’ s seat particularly if he tries to have seats in both parliaments. They will argue that he can’t do both jobs at once.
You know more than I do.
What worries me is that while the SNP contested every seat in 2010, many if not most of the strong candidates in that election ended up in Holyrood in 2011. So we’re starting from a smaller pool.
I’m unconvinced there’s time for new members to get themselves through the selection process to be able to put themselves forward as candidates. So I hope there are enough very capable people prepared to sacrifice themselves for a few years on the altar of Westminster. It’s a big ask.
Mealer says:
6 November, 2014 at 6:46 pm
Have the Libdems paid their police bill yet?
___________
That’s a very good point, Mealer, have they?
Someone had brought up that very point on here several days ago
and i think the bill is somewhere in the region of £750,000.
Whoever it was also put up a link to the SNP article regarding
the matter.
I don’t remember the poster getting any responses or answers.
The bill stems from the LibDem Party conference in Glasgow a
couple of years ago, i think, and they are due to hold their
next conference in Glasgow, again.
If they haven’t paid that bill then there is no way they should
be allowed to host another conference in Scotland until they do
and all future gigs should be paid up front.
The same untrustworthy bastardos quite happily accepted money from dodgy sources to help fund the No campaign, allegedly.
😉
The Grouse Beater referred to Mundell as a Sweetie Wife (still current). He’s what ma auld maw would have called an Auld Teenie.
seanair says:
6 November, 2014 at 8:52 pm
On SKY news the mighty Mcternan confidently predicts a Labour victory in 2015. So the polls and our feelings are all wrong obviously. Adam Boulton just sits there and grins, but doesn’t mention Australia or the 2011 Holyrood election and McTernan’s totally wrong predictions.
How do these people get away with it?
____________
Simples, because people continue to tune in and watch them.
Without viewers or listeners they cannot function.
Besides, the station you mention is a commercial channel.
They answer to nobody but their sponsors.
Personally, i don’t subscribe to them.
And in the words of Morag – I wouldn’t pay someone to lie to me.
😉
@ one scot who mentioned limits to freedom of expression.
thanks for continuing the discussion – it’s challenging having to pinpoint my thoughts so precisely
Glad we agree about limits on freedom of expression.
Perhaps you noticed I talked about “May”
“Note “may”. i am not saying they will always be accepted but let’s agree they might be”.
Perhaps I should have phrased it as “but for the sake of argument, let’s agree they might be”
Limits on freedom of expression was not the thrust of my argument because deciding where one person’s freedom ends and another’s begins leads into tricky situations. They can often be decided only by careful analysis on a one by one basis. Enter the lawyers!
on the other hand, in my view, nobody can justify burnings of effigies, national flags etc under any circumstances as “freedom of expression”.
Burnings are simply an expression of hate and, as I tried to show in my post, alternatives are available.
Satirical effigies can end up in a museum rather than on a bonfire!
I remember during the referendum, we were told we would be lucky if we could get 20% Yes. We got 49.9%. New Labour’s lead from the 2010 election to the 2011 by-election plummeted by 59% to a mere 5,000 majority out of an electorate of over 55,000. SNP Inverclyde’s membership rocketed from around 200 to over 1,000 in the space of a month.
The direction of travel for New Labour in Inverclyde’s been going in only one direction, and if even now it’s showing it’ll only scrape by on 0.5% of the vote, well, strange how what was traditionally seen as a Labour stronghold is on a knife-edge, eh?
It’s going to be tough, it’s going to be hard work, but if there’s team in Scotland who could get a pro-independence MP into Inverclyde, it’s the Inverclyde independence grassroots. We started off on 20% and got to a statistical dead heat: we’re starting off from a much stronger position, and it’s over six months to go.
The referendum was Inverclyde’s Rocky: we didn’t win, but we went the 15 rounds when everyone thought it was a done deal. Let’s make this our Rocky II.
James123 at 8:02 suggests Wings is a bonefide news source – what do you expect from a phoenix that rises from the bonefire?
I actually think you have a better chance of getting Inverclyde than we have of getting Mundell’s seat, but I’m not supposed to say that.
@Fred says:
6 November, 2014 at 9:44 pm:
“The Grouse Beater referred to Mundell as a Sweetie Wife (still current). He’s what ma auld maw would have called an Auld Teenie.”
My late wife bought a terrecotta Garden Gnome. It was the very image of David Mundell. It looked particularly like him as he sits on the front bench and nods in time with whatever Cameron is saying.
Robert, I’m sure it has sentimental value but I would be sorely tempted to stick a banger up its arse! 🙂
Taranaich at 10.15
On an assumption that voters revert to their usual parties and the YES side put up a single candidate you win Inverclyde. A forty five percent vote for a YES candidate wins every seat in Scotland depending entirely in what the unionists do re candidates.
You can be sure they are aware of the possible outcomes here if the unionist vote divides. It is difficult to imagine Tory Labour and LibDem fielding a single unionist alliance candidate but it is remotely possible and we are then, if this transpires, facing a de facto referendum again.
But let’s let our imaginations run riot.
Are the Tories likely to join with Labour at a Westminster election when Labour could possibly put them out of power? Would the Tories happily see a huge SNP presence rather than a Labour Government?
Do not forget that the SNP victory in 2011 was a relief to a fragile Tory /Libdem coalition which would have been seriously undermined by a big Labour victory in Scotland not long after they had stumbled into government. I can remember Tory press and Tory bigwigs like Sir David Murray urging folk to vote SNP in 2011. But it worked rather better than they meant it to.
I wonder if a serious Tory voter going down to the polls on election day in May in a Labour/SNP marginal might be under terrible temptation to use the best weapon he has to see Labour beaten.
Interesting times
Morag at 8.28
In 2010 the SNP came in fourth in Argyll and Bute as well – and this is strong SNP seat. The SNP took it at the Scottish election with almost 50% of the vote.
Ignore the 2010 figures. They represent the Scottish electors voting for the likeliest candidates to beat the Tory which meant that huge numbers of SNP voters voted LibDem (the incumbent) or Labour in A&B. Beat the Tory is the continuous game in Argyll and Bute which is actually a four way marginal which the Tory could only win with a three way split of its opposition (and the help of Tory Helensburgh at Westminster contests)
The thought is deeply appreciated. I don’t envy your position! Still, you never know: I get the impression that the Conservatives might get a bit complacent about the New Labour meltdown, keeping their eye off their own problems like the child abuse scandals. Who knows what will come to light over the next six months?
Well, that’s the worry for me: a LOT of people in Inverclyde were voting Yes, then Labour in an independent Scotland. Will they realise that since we didn’t get a Yes, voting for “Labour” just means we get more of New Labour? If the 40% or so of Labour voters who backed Yes can muster the gumption to vote SNP (a tall order, I know)… well, it’d be nice to see the first SNP MP for Inverclyde in 2015.
It does indeed all depend on the candidate. Iain McKenzie is still in the running, but the SNP candidate is still being decided. A lot rides on that individualt.
@Taranaich – that’s my worry to.
I mentioned earlier that my friend who eventually after a lot of soul searching voted Yes and was intending to vote for Lab in 2016.
She is now very angry as the Lab support drops like a stone.
It’s not going to be easy in the GE but we have to try our hardest
Agree one cannot always rely on the veracity of respondents but IMO the biggest single expectation in that regard would be those who voted No claiming they voted Yes.
i.e. there are probably more No voters in a given sample than is reported.
@Paula Rose
Bonefide, lol, sorry I meant bonefried, embarrassing.
@Taranaich & @liz
“Well, that’s the worry for me: a LOT of people in Inverclyde were voting Yes, then Labour in an independent Scotland.”
This was basically the slogan of LFI who were quite prominent in Inverclyde. I’m sure most, like me have abandoned Miliband, Murphy and Lamont since the referendum result.
The goal was to change “Labour” back to a left party in line with their traditions. Not to vote in 2016 for the same old shite but a rejuvenated party with traditional values.
I doubt few, if any using that slogan will be voting Labour any time soon.
Just where do you think the increase in SNP support for both Westminster and Holyrood has come from? All these new members?
Give you a clue, it is not from Tory, Lid Dem or UKIP.
The argument against that is that the split of “how did you actually vote” came out almost identical to the real referendum result. So you’d be postulating that Panelbase actually polled a No-heavy sample, but that by lying the respondents brought themselves into line with the actual result?
It’s an odd set of results, but I think it mainly demonstrates the surprising level of volatility still present in the independence vote even after three years of debate and an actual vote. To some extent I think this may represent people attracted by the idea of independence but swayed by the constant “you’d be a beggar nation” propaganda. The Yes-to-No switchers may well be people who still believe the Vow, though I’m surprised by the number.
One thing did occur to me and that is the “how did you actually vote?” question coming out so closely in line with the real referendum result must surely help put to bed the hysteria about “Yes really won but the votes were tampered with” thing. The other poll which asked the same question had No ahead in the referendum itself too.
Those from the Yes campaign, who have joined the SNP, are SO ready to campaign, given their obvious enthusiasm. If they campaign on doorsteps at the GE, it could counter the adverse effect of MSM. The major WM parties will be so busy fighting their own little corner of rUK, against UKIP, that they won’t be interested in coming en masse to love bomb Scotland. The results of the Smith Commission may well be an advantage to SNP, when few, if any see the results they believed would happen.
Wonder if Alex might make an interesting announcement at conference next week?
While the other polls may have stolen Wings’ thunder a wee bit I am sure Prof Curtice is in Hog Heaven. Three polls all converging give psephologists a warm fuzzy glow.
I suspect they aren’t giving Labour a warm fuzzy feeling at all and I was a bit taken aback to see that there is unrest on the back benches as English Labour MPs are starting to look askance at their own likely survival.
We live in interesting times. If we end up with a Tory/UKIP horror alliance I am going to get a T Shirt that says Are You Still No Now?
Hmmm. Our guy with the badge-maker was saying he’d made some “Don’t blame me, I voted Yes” badges, and some “still Yes” badges, and I remarked that “You Yes Yet?” might be due for a comeback too.
I suppose, running on from what HandandShrimp said, my main worry is this. When things get tougher, and we see failures in social security and the NHS and pensions are poor and people are lsing their jobs, will voters really work out that independence would have avoided all that? Or will we get “isn’t is just as well we voted No because surely everything would have been SO much worse!” from the unimaginative fearties?
RE switching DevoMaxers.
It depends on why you are a devomaxer. I was one because I was not convinced either of the economic case for independence or that we had the politicians to manage it. Both of those have been answered. The economic case by evidence and arguments during the referendum and the latter by how basically technocratically competent the SNP government has been.
DevoMax for me then was always all about a practice run for Independence. So I think it would be a nice and useful condolence prize on the road to Independence I would still vote Yes tomorrow and for all the tomorrows to come.
Fred says:
6 November, 2014 at 10:50 pm
Robert, I’m sure it has sentimental value but I would be sorely tempted to stick a banger up its arse!
Destruction of effigies! Fred, you’re not thinking of moving to East Sussex by any chance?
Murphy is just a Tory who joined the Labour party because it was the only way he could advance his career in politics. He had no chance of winning a seat in Scotland as a Tory, so he made the pragmatic (?) unprincipled (?) choice, as it was the only way to make his fortune by living off the state. I wonder how many of the Blairites have made the same choice.
Oh, I have no doubts. I know quite a few personally – I think there’s only one left who was a big Labour man, but even he cannot bring himself to vote New Labour. But will the surge from former Labour members & activists translate to Labour voters? That’s the problem, as I see it. I truly hope the number of former Labour members and voters who not only left the party, but joined the SNP will be enough to convince the voters.