The world's most-read Scottish politics website

Wings Over Scotland


Who to believe? #2

Posted on March 07, 2013 by

So what’s really going to happen to oil revenues in the next few years?

An independent Scotland would begin with a £4 billion black hole in its finances due to a fall in oil revenues, UK Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander said yesterday.” (The Scotsman, 2nd March 2013)

“”Oil production should revive from recent levels for a period of several years, particularly with the higher-price scenario, where the increase could be substantial,” the study by Alexander Kemp and Linda Stephen [of the University of Aberdeen] concluded.” (Reuters, 5th December 2012)

“Oil prices could rise to anywhere between $150 and $270 a barrel by 2020 as demand growth in emerging markets like India and China outpaces expected supply, the OECD said Wednesday.

“I think people have been calmer about oil prices given the new supply, but if you really look at the implications of rising demand, you see this isn’t true,” said Isabelle Koske, economist at the Organization for Economic Co-Operation and Development and one author of a report on oil prices published Wednesday.” (The Wall Street Journal, 6th March 2013)

“Oil & Gas UK reckons oil receipts will be £3bn higher in 2017 than forecast last year. While Brent crude prices are now around $110 per barrel, by 2017, the UK’s Department of Energy and Climate Change predicts they could hit $130 a barrel, while the latest OECD predictions put them higher, at an eye-watering, record $150 a barrel.” (The Guardian, 7th March 2013)

We just can’t decide who the most reliable authority is. What a puzzle.

28 to “Who to believe? #2”

  1. FreddieThreepwood says:

    The basic laws of supply and demand, not to mention the threat of ‘peak oil’ make it a no-brainer.
    Put it this way – the UK Government can’t blame rising oil prices for the hike in petrol prices (as well as partly justifying its investment in renewables and continuing dalliance with nuclear) THEN turn round and try to persuade us oil is now some sort of junk commodity.
    Or maybe that falls under ‘Too Stupid’ …

    Reply
  2. Macart says:

    Rev you may want to make room and you can slap me down for going O/T, but check this out on the Guardian.
     
    link to guardian.co.uk
     
    Words fail me.

    Reply
  3. Tinyzeitgeist says:

    It is absolutely essential that Scotland takes control of the oil and gas reserves that fall within our North Sea jurisdiction, because it is these resources that will help us build resilience to the coming oil price shocks – “oil prices could rise to anywhere between $150 and $270 a barrel by 2020…” (OECD). This of course reflects the inevitability of the basic economics of supply and demand coupled to a diminishing resource and the consequences are frightening. Watch this:



    Scotlands hydrocarbon resources must be used to develop renewables and to protect its population from the energy supply shocks that are just around the corner. Without independence we are truly fecked

    Reply
  4. mato21 says:

    O/T
    The herald to close its Edinburgh office Journalists expected to work from home (maybe they’ll take their copy from Wings)

    Reply
  5. Chic McGregor says:

    How about believing Stephen Nickell a member of the OBR‘s main steering committee.

    Source Telegraph March 2011 (my eboldening)

    “The OBR forecasts oil prices to peak this year at $113 a barrel, but to remain at $107 or above through to the end of 2015. Oil will only add to inflation if prices keep on rising, which is why the OBR expects the consumer price index to fall back to 2pc by 2013. But, Mr Nickell added: “Forecasting oil prices, as anyone knows, is a mug’s game.

    Note no significant oil price drop predicted through to 2015.
    In actuality prices have gone up.

    Also Westminster ministers talk up the UK’s future oil revenue to external bodies it is only Scotland that gets the U-certificate censored version.

    link to telegraph.co.uk

    Reply
  6. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “Rev you may want to make room and you can slap me down for going O/T, but check this out on the Guardian.”

    That’s hardly OT. Edited in, cheers.

    Reply
  7. Chic McGregor says:

    Excellent research Stuart, especially that Guardian/OECD revelation.  Why isn’t the media quoting those recent forecasts? </rhetorical mode>
     
    I only posted the older example above because
    1.  It was an OBR member
    2.  He virtually admits they don’t know what they are talking about.

    Reply
  8. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

    “Excellent research Stuart, especially that Guardian/OECD revelation.  Why isn’t the media quoting those recent forecasts?”

    In fairness, the Guardian is KINDA the media… 😀

    Reply
  9. G H Graham says:

    Look, the facts no longer matter; the consequences to unionists whether they be individuals, MPs, MSPs, employees of the BBC, employees of the print media or anyone else championing the union from within a British government department or agency, abandoned rational arguments long ago.
    Why? I suggest that they are incapable of imagining themselves operating in an exclusively Scottish environment because they view Scotland as inferior, diminished, a less important entity than any British version, even when that British version of whatever it is that they live & operate within in is broken, corrupt & deeply flawed.
    They are so besotten by the privelage & access to potential wealth by the rotten British state that they are not prepared to take even a small risk by relieving themselves of their dependency.
    Consequently, no matter what facts, evidence, anecdote or sound advice that support any benefit to Scotlands people post independence, unionists will defiantly rubbish them because to even reach a mild concensus let alone an agreement, makes them vulnerable to derision, exclusion & potentially will see them become unemployed, at least in the short term.
    For some, such as flipper Darling & the inept Michael Moore, this is a certainty. Britain will turn its back on these two as sure as the sun will rise tomorrow morning if Scots decide to reject the concept of the UK in 2014. And there are plenty of other political legacies of Britain who will also be scrambling for a place, somewhere, anywhere.
    But we wont have forgotten the fight these people put up & the lies, deceipt & corrpution they chose to support, even when it was to the detriment of Scotland’s people. They surely know this too so they will continue to issue peurile diatribes so long as they think some in the country will take notice of them.
    The bottom line is that it is their bottom line that will take precedent over everything else; now that the referendum is looming, the argument is becoming personal; it’s all about protecting the individual & their financial interests.
    The tone & language from unionists can only become more extreme as each day passes. 
    Now, where are my noise cancellation headphones?

    Reply
  10. Indion says:

    Tinyzeitgeist at 5:55pm

    Strongly agree, but suggest the conclusion should be tweeked to: ‘we’re fcuked without independence!’

    Reply
  11. R Louis says:

    G H Graham
     
    You make a good point, though I reckon it’s even worse.  You see the Westminster unionist troughers from Scotland will have told their ‘chums’ up in the Scottish parliament, that if independence happens, they will all be on the first plane up to Edinburgh, to ‘acquire’ the next available seat.  Due to their perceived inferiority, the sitting unionist MSP’s will be politely de-selected next time around, and replaced by the likes of Ian Davidson and Darling.

    As the unionist cabal at Holyrood now know their fate (i.e P45’s all round) when the ‘big boys’ come up from Westminster, they have in turn highlighted this logic to unionist councillors across Scotland.  

    This is I believe part of the reason we see a long line of unionist MP’s, MSP’s and councillors lying through their back teeth about how awful independence will be.  They are merely thinking of their own personal careers.
     
     

    Reply
  12. Chic McGregor says:

    Sorry Rev
    Missed out the word ‘broadcast’

    Reply
  13. Alan says:

    I don’t believe anything. I either know or don’t.

    Reply
  14. ron.mcdonald@ntlworld.com says:

    Ask Kaye Adams. 25pence would be a sensible answer.
    I mean what the fuck does the OECD know? 
     
     
     

    Reply
  15. Midgehunter says:

    OBR = Osbournes bull***t reports

    Reply
  16. Clydebuilt says:

    From Craig Murray’s blog.

    Another scam from the BBC

    Propaganda against Scotland

    by craig on March 7, 2013 10:28 am in Uncategorized

    A particularly sickening trick from the BBC a few weeks back raised my blood pressure whilst in hospital and almost finished me off. A French Euro MP was asked for “the French view” on Scottish independence. She said that France would oppose it and the French government takes the view that an independent Scotland would be outside the European Union. I was absolutely astonished that the BBC had managed to find the only French person in the entire world who is against Scottish independence, and that she was telling an outright lie about the position of the French government.
    Then I realised who she was – the former research assistant (and rather more) of New Labour minister and criminal invoice forger Denis Macshane. She worked for years in the UK parliament for New Labour, in a Monica Lewinsky kind of way. All of which the BBC hid, presenting her simply as a French Euro MP. There are seventy million French people. How remarkable that the one the BBC chose to give the French view of Scottish independence was a New Labour hack!

    link to craigmurray.org.uk

    Reply
  17. The North Sea Resources are a vital part of an Independent Scottish economy just as those resources are vital to the United Kingdom economy. Just as important to the Independence debate is the political debate and in particular the issue of Westminster claiming that Scotland ceased to exist in 1707.  For that reason alone any true Scot with an ounce of self respect has no choice but to vote Yes just for our right to exist as a people and a Nation
    link to chicchater.co.uk

    Reply
  18. douglas clark says:

    I was born in 1948, well now you know.
    I thought myself Scottish more or less from the moment I could work any of this stuff out, but it only turned into a commitment to independence about ten years or so ago.
    Some idiot telling me my nation was extiguished is an arsehole. I dunno but 1707 from 1948 is what? 241 years (originally typed as tears, but there you go) 
    It is not because I pass, or want to pass, any sort of ‘any true Scot’ test. I would prefer to argue, that if you have lived here a week, and have a vote, then you should look to your future here and let your ancestors claim that they were indeed ‘a true Scot’. And voted ‘Yes’. It’s worked for the Bostonian elite, has it not?
     

    Reply
  19. balgayboy says:

    Presently all I see and know is that all the huge South Korean Oil & Gas fabrication yards as are their shipyards are jammed packed full of mega billions dollar  off Oil & Gas projects, albeit not just for the North Sea but it’s an indication of the future investment the oil company’s plans and developments, knowing them they must be certain that the oil & gas prices are not going anywhere but UP.

    Reply
  20. Fiona says:

    A little bit O/T but in all the discussion of the GERS and our oil I see Nicola gave a speech to the Campaign to End Child Poverty yesterday.
    link to scotland.gov.uk
    A discussion on the relative wealth of Scotland can become a bit dry for some people so I think it is important that we also look at in the context of what we could do with this wealth- and also to compare that with the abject failure of the Westminster system to address such fundamental issues as child poverty.

    Reply
  21. Fiona says:

    An e-mail from Nicola includes a very good graphic on GERS by Yes Scotland which can be downloaded and shared with as many folk as possible. It is very clear for anyone to undersatnd we give to Westminster more than we get back.
    link to d3n8a8pro7vhmx.cloudfront.net
    Perhaps someone could post the graphic.

    Reply
  22. jpfife says:

    Don’t believe any predictions. They are, after all, predictions and not certainties.

    Reply
  23. CameronB says:

    @ Fiona

    “Perhaps someone could post the graphic.”

    Do you mean converted to jpeg, or some other format?

    Reply
  24. Fiona says:

    @CameronB
    In whichever way it can be posted here, I’m not too good at converting files etc. and don’t want to clog up the site if I get it wrong!
     
     

    Reply
  25. CameronB says:

    @ Fiona

    I’m pretty clueless myself about how to upload, and don’t know if it is possible to do what you are suggesting. Perhaps the Rev. is planning on doing it himself? After all, it is his shiny new home.

    Reply
  26. Fiona says:

    @CameronB
    Aye and we don’t want to get the carpet dirty as he’s just moved in!

    Reply
  27. Dal Riata says:

    @Clydebuilt – thanks for that link (above).
     
    What a great spot that is by Craig Murray! The BBC found out once again.
     
    Superb chance to further expose this deviousness by the BBC with an article perhaps, Stu? With the agreement of Craig Murray, of course!

    Reply
  28. Keith B says:

    @ Fiona
     
    Did you mean something like this?
     
    link to i.imgur.com

    Reply


Comment - please read this page for comment rules. HTML tags like <i> and <b> are permitted. Use paragraph breaks in long comments. DO NOT SIGN YOUR COMMENTS, either with a name or a slogan. If your comment does not appear immediately, DO NOT REPOST IT. Ignore these rules and I WILL KILL YOU WITH HAMMERS.


  • About

    Wings Over Scotland is a (mainly) Scottish political media digest and monitor, which also offers its own commentary. (More)

    Stats: 6,726 Posts, 1,215,028 Comments

  • Recent Posts

  • Archives

  • Categories

  • Tags

  • Recent Comments

    • Robert Hughes on The Gender Of Mountains: “Of course Swinney would bend over to * accommodate * the utterly farcical ” Red Menace ” bollocks ; another…Apr 3, 16:25
    • Sven on The Gender Of Mountains: “Vivian O’Blivion @ 14.15. A senior source close to the First Minister has a brass neck to dare to even…Apr 3, 16:12
    • Aidan on The Long Future: “@Xaracen – there is no such thing as a binary state, states can either be unitary (like the U.K.) or…Apr 3, 15:02
    • Hatey McHateface on The Gender Of Mountains: ““there’ll be Ruskie tanks parked in front of Hollyrood if we’re no careful” That, my dear Vivian O’Blivion, is an…Apr 3, 14:59
    • Hatey McHateface on The Gender Of Mountains: ““gutless pro Trump Brit Yoon NAZI appeaser” Iain treats us to another lesson on “hearts and minds”. Just in case…Apr 3, 14:47
    • Young Lochinvar on The Gender Of Mountains: “The Khmer Vert should just pull the trigger of the metaphorical gun they are holding to their own “electability” heads…Apr 3, 14:20
    • Vivian O’Blivion on The Gender Of Mountains: “The Scotland Editor of The New Statesman, Chris Deerin is full of praise for Mayor Swinney of Brigadoom. “The SNP…Apr 3, 14:15
    • sarah on The Gender Of Mountains: “Yes – the ICCPR is an international obligation, however. For more information about the strength of the petition see Leah…Apr 3, 14:12
    • Dunx on The Gender Of Mountains: “The HRC And the ICCPR are different things.Apr 3, 12:54
    • MaryB on The Gender Of Mountains: “Thanks for that, Sarah.Apr 3, 12:16
    • Xaracen on The Long Future: “As for the “principle of respect for the territorial integrity of states”, that can only apply to unitary states. For…Apr 3, 11:48
    • sarah on The Gender Of Mountains: “Scotland Act 1998 clause 7 (2) Sub-paragraph (1) does NOT reserve – (a) observing and implementing international obligations, obligations under…Apr 3, 11:30
    • Xaracen on The Long Future: “Ah, so it’s not an important matter of principle at all, then. It’s just a shoddy excuse to keep certain…Apr 3, 11:28
    • Mark Beggan on The Gender Of Mountains: ““A gutless pro Trump British yoon Nazi appeaser” as opposed to an aborted pro Faggot inbred Lefty jizz stain.Apr 3, 10:24
    • Aidan on The Gender Of Mountains: “@Mary – you’re right, but the UNCRC was successfully challenged in the Supreme Court on the basis that it extended…Apr 3, 10:04
    • Sven on The Gender Of Mountains: “Iain More @ 08.15. I suspect that this will be in retaliation for the 82% Tariff which the Islands impose…Apr 3, 09:49
    • Southernbystander on The Gender Of Mountains: “Is there not a serious problem of throwing the baby out with the bath water with this endless invocation of…Apr 3, 09:44
    • MaryB on The Gender Of Mountains: “Aidan @ 6.23am Why don’t you Google UN Human Rights and ICCPR? The UK adopted the overall Human Rights Act,…Apr 3, 09:36
    • Iain More on The Gender Of Mountains: “Ok we get that you are a gutless pro Trump Brit Yoon NAZI appeaser. Thanks for letting is know.Apr 3, 09:22
    • Hatey McHateface on The Gender Of Mountains: “Why is this a gift for Scottish Indy, Iain? Is iScotland going to stand up to President Trump and the…Apr 3, 08:48
    • Iain More on The Gender Of Mountains: “41% Tariffs on Falkland Islands. What did they do to piss off Fuhrer Trump? I had no idea that the…Apr 3, 08:15
    • Aidan on The Gender Of Mountains: “Another cunning plan based on a whole heap of made up legal arguments which no court, anywhere, is going to…Apr 3, 06:23
    • Hatey McHateface on The Sacrifice: “@Zimba Regarding moral inconsistencies. I believe a meaningful debate between fair-minded individuals acting in good faith first needs some kind…Apr 2, 21:17
    • sarah on The Gender Of Mountains: “IMPORTANT: Leah Gunn Barrett attended the Public Petitions Committee at Holyrood today in order to see what would happen to…Apr 2, 19:40
    • agent x on The Gender Of Mountains: “Caroline Lucas says: “He helped transform the fortunes of the Scottish Green party – taking the party into government for…Apr 2, 18:13
    • Porty on The Long Future: “Have a wee look at her post and highlights of committee meeting today at Holyrood today, she’s a fighter, well…Apr 2, 18:08
    • Porty on The Long Future: “So the game’s a bogey, so we call it a day?Apr 2, 18:04
    • Porty on The Long Future: “So the game’s a bogey, so we call it a day?Apr 2, 18:00
    • Porty on The Long Future: “Soz, double post…Apr 2, 17:41
    • Aidan on The Long Future: “@Xaracen – to understand why the geographic separation requirement is so important you have to look back at the context…Apr 2, 17:31
  • A tall tale



↑ Top