The Fear Of The Briar
With Reform now pretty consistently miles in front in polling for the next UK election, logically this is brilliant news for the Scottish independence movement, isn’t it?
So can anyone explain why the SNP is so desperate to stop them?
That’s a rhetorical question, of course. As we’ve repeatedly explored on Wings over the last few years, the SNP don’t want anything to happen that might actually lead to independence, because independence would be the death of the SNP, and they like money and power far more than they hate the Union whose cash keeps the party alive.
But while the motivation of those in the independence industry – who need it to never happen in order to keep making a living out of it, and whose main imperative is always to kick it a few more years down the road and keep people chasing the carrot – is obvious, it’s still an interesting one to ponder for the grassroots Yes movement.
Because if your options are “Reform in power, leading to independence”, and “Labour or the Tories in power and nothing ever changing”, that should be the easiest choice in the world. Even if you’re not sure Nigel Farage in No.10 would have that effect, we know for SURE that the Lab-Con status quo WON’T, so it’s got to be worth a shot.
(And that’s even before you start contemplating the political realities, and all of the rational reasons why an English nationalist like Farage might be a lot more amenable to cutting Scotland loose than the likes of Keir Starmer or Kemi Badenoch.)
As it stands, nobody with more than two brain cells to rub together thinks there’s the tiniest chance of independence in the next five years at a minimum.
(Just days ago John Swinney himself told us he intends to be contesting the next TWO elections to a devolved Scottish Parliament, clearly signalling he doesn’t think there’s any hope of indy before then.)
So why should we be terrified of an outcome that will supposedly put us 22 points in the lead? Why shouldn’t we be doing everything we possibly can to bring that about without letting the SNP waste another half-decade of our time first?
(A special shout-out to The National’s specialist arithmetic desk there for managing to work out that 61 minus 39 is indeed “over 20”. We hope there was an adult nearby to help them put their socks and shoes back on.)
Yes has NEVER led by anything like 22 points. There have only been three double-digit leads recorded in 130 polls since 2021.
So we need to ask ourselves what’s more important to us – independence, or hand-wringing and pearl-clutching and virtue-signalling aimed at trying to deny England the Reform government it so clearly wants.
We’ve already let Nicola Sturgeon throw away the best chance of leveraging a victory for Farage – the Brexit vote of 2016 – into independence for Scotland, when her terrified phobia of being seen to co-operate with the Tories on anything led her into the misguided and undemocratic attempt to reverse Brexit for the whole UK, rather than weaponising it to Scotland’s advantage.
Let’s not make the same mistake twice. Let’s celebrate every growth in Reform support anywhere in the UK, let’s get the useless elephant corpse of Swinney’s SNP off our backs as soon as possible to give us the maximum amount of time to build something new that can do the job, and get ready to make Nigel an offer he can’t refuse.
Because if Reform are going to win in the UK some time between now and mid-2029, we simply cannot afford to waste the next five years like we’ve wasted the last 11. The SNP are now 20 points less popular than independence is.
Already 40% of indy supporters refuse to vote for them, and after another term of their useless governance that number will only get higher and the roadblock of their toxic unpopularity even bigger.
They are the ball and chain around our ankle. They are yesterday and we need to look to tomorrow, starting now.
Hard to believe that once upon a time the SNP were a means to an end and it was just accepted that after independence they’d disband and the members go wherever.
Seems such a long time ago now.
David Beveridge says:
31 December, 2025 at 11:51 am
“Hard to believe that once upon a time the SNP were a means to an end”
======
It still is.
But the “end” is no longer to end of the union. it is to maximise income for elected Parliamentarians and various SNP hangers-on
“ But while the motivation of those in the independence industry – who need it to never happen in order to keep making a living out of it, and whose main imperative is always to kick it a few more years down the road and keep people chasing the carrot “
I’ve said for years now that Scotland will never be independent as long as there are people making money out of the quest for independence – the MPs the MSPs, the pundits, the poets, the SPADs, the office staff, the councillors, the authors, the filmmakers, the musicians, the singers, the Indy march movements, the grifting “business/ believe” campaign groups who only like donations of folding money.
Scottish independence is one massive grifting industry which will collapse if Scotland becomes ever independent.
Aside from that, I dread to think what would become of Scotland if we ever got independence under the incompetence of the SNP -it doesn’t bear thinking about.
I read the headline this morning and thought the very same thing, but less eloquently than you Stu. The independance movement needs someone to get behind and they need it soon, as plans need working on now. NF will be the UKs next PM and Swinney is watching on with his thumb up his arse, enjoying securing his long term future employment and subsequent healthy pension. I’ve said it before , yourself and Robin are the very people we need to be delivering Scotland independence.
When it comes to Scottish independence I’m drawn to the old Indian story about ten men and an elephant.
Another thing that has always puzzled me is the ranting about ‘a nation once again ‘. If we were it must have been pretty shit.
All the best for 2026. Lang may your lum reek.
@RevStu I was pretty skeptical about your suggestion to make an offer of an independence referendum on terms where the counterfactual is the abolition of the Scottish Parliament. However, I do wonder if the parliamentary arithmetic supported it, how the SNP would take the offer of a confidence and supply arrangement at Westminster with Reform in exchange for a new independence referendum.
Hard to imagine any scenario where the Tories wouldn’t offer the same level of assistance for far less onerous terms, though.
Besides, can you imagine how such a plan would go down with what’s left of the SNP’s supporters, who are very much left of centre.
It’s possible the conservatives offer better terms, but equally I can see a world where they see being a junior coalition party as the road to ruin and decide they’re better off as an opposition party.
Secondly, in a sense here is the beauty of it because it calls the SNP on whether they are a genuinely independence first party or really a party of devolution. So simplistically there could be three outcomes;
a) The SNP says no to the only opportunity to hold another referendum, SNP is recognised as no longer being an Indy party and is damaged/destroyed;
b) The SNP says yes, the referendum is held and won in which case the SNP ceases to have any purpose; or
c) The SN says yes, the referendum is lost which pretty much kills the cause and the SNP is heavily punished by their voters for voting with reform.
If anyone gets a chance to question John Swinney soon, perhaps ask him about this.
“The independence movement needs someone to get behind..”.
We need the activists of 2014 embodied as the necessary parliamentary mechanism. We don’t want the current party politicians to get in as MSPs yet again because, as the Rev has clearly pointed out for many years, their interests are not our interests.
Some of those 2014 activists ARE getting organised to form a real independence presence in Holyrood. They DO aim to combine all the broad church of pro-independence groups and parties, and to organise the most efficient voting strategy i.e. not waste the list votes. This umbrella group is Liberate Scotland.
It only needs the same attitude as there was in 2014 i.e. everyone and anyone willing to co-operate behind the single cause.
What is stopping the Alba Party from joining this co-operative electoral pact, for example?
A Holyrood election shows the views of Scottish voters. It doesn’t matter that Holyrood is a creation of Westminster. The fact that it demonstrates the preferences of Scottish voters is what counts. It can be used as the democratic justification for progressing independence, acceptable to the international community as well as to the Scots.
If I had been one of these Westminster MP’s who lost their jobs last year. I certainly wouldn’t be happy with his comments considering Swinney was directly to blame for the loss of the majority of the Westminster MP’s, when all Swinney was really bothered about was getting Keir Starmer election to appease the Labour party in Scotland.
If John Swinney goes into the Holyrood election standing on a ticket of saving the Union from reform, he might have just saved me from having to vote for reform to stop the SNP.
He’s no intention of making any effort to delivery Independence, he’s being open and honest about what he wants, so I have to ask why would you vote for the SNP never mind leave them anything in your will.
This will all happen in 2031 it’ll be the same actors play the same play, then it’ll be 2036 and the same again.
My opinion is if the SNP goes into Holyrood fighting reform at the doors they’ll lose. When they should be fight to remove Scotland from the Union. If the Opinion polls are correct and the majority want Independence then why would you through that option of a 50%+ lead away, its simple John isn’t bothered about Independence and he isn’t bothered about the SNP MSP either but for some reason he is bothered about the Labour party.
A curious side question but still related to voting,
Can the Snp stand Candidates for election south of the border, but just do not do it, or are they restricted to Scotland and Scotland devolved governance control borders?
Never hear of them in England, only once the elections are by with in Scotland, and then they migrate to the parliament of England,
But then again political parties registered down south stand up here,
There is nothing to stop the SNP standing for election in England. In fact, I myself am considering standing as an Independent SNP candidate in Kensington in the next general election.
Also on the plus side, Reform are the only major party opposed to damaging and oppressive woke policies such as mass immigration, EDI, and gender ideology, which is the main reason folk are voting for them in droves.
As usual most folk are missing the point, and the reasons why reform seem to be doing so well and still growing.
Reform are the protest vote against the incumbents who are all detested for their grifting and incompetence.
Plus they seem to be the only party that is actually saying they will deal with the main issue folk are really wanting dealt with rather than what the parties say we should be wanting.
Whether they can or will do anything about any of them is irrelevant, what most folk want is to cast a fuck you vote against the main parties, including the SNP
Another very good article and one which is on point, but I think there is at least one more twist in the tale to come. We must keep in mind that, far from being an anti-establishment man, Farage is controlled opposition, a populist grifter who was elevated from the single-issue fringes only when the BNP started to gain traction (50+ councillors and 2 MEPs) around 2006-09. He was the pressure valve to prevent a nastier uprising in England and, when push comes to shove, has neither the ability nor even the desire to be PM. There’s a chance he could manufacture a way out prior to the election, such as an internal dispute in Reform leading to his resignation. What then? A hung parliament may be more likely than a Reform government, with the latter settling for coalition and thus a token continuation of the Lib-Lab-Con elite status quo.
Whatever happens, I think the independence movement has to be wary of relying on outside forces to aid us in boosting support. This passive approach didn’t see a surge when Cameron got a majority in 2015, nor Brexit, hell not even a Boris Johnson premiership or the incompetence of May and co.