Ink and incredibility
Now, this is interesting. Alert readers will have noticed (by which we mean “be sick of us banging on about”) the fact that we recently conducted a poll which suggested the Yes and No votes were a lot closer than the media portrayal, and the media blanked it with a bunch of feeble excuses including “you had a satirical option in one of your questions”, “you used leading wording” and “we were all on holiday that week”.
We’re not making that last one up.
The media coverage we got for our troubles was a nasty smear campaign (warning: image Not Safe For Anyone). On the other hand, despite being at the beach and the zoo and goodness knows where else, the Scottish press managed to splash another poll a couple of weeks later, showing a massive lead for No, all over the front pages.
The fishy smell, though, was about to get a lot stronger.
First, last night saw the revelation that the Devo Plus poll showing a 2:1 lead for No used its own convoluted, confusing and leading version of the referendum question.
That’s quite the most tortured way of turning one question (“Should Scotland be an independent country?”) into a very different one (“Should Scotland leave the United Kingdom?”) that we’ve seen for a while, but mysteriously the media that berated us for not asking the question directly and straightforwardly no longer had any objections to the same practice, as long as it delivered a result they liked better.
And then this happened.
That’s the front-page story from today’s Courier, also reported on the front page of the Scottish Sun. At the time of writing it doesn’t appear in any other papers. But what DO they consider the big Scottish politics stories of the day?
THE SCOTSMAN
Indepenence will cost Scots families £2000 each
THE HERALD
Gordon Brown says the Union is the best way to help the poor
SNP tries to hide independence study before elections
DAILY RECORD
Blow for independence campaign as 59% set to vote No
SCOTTISH DAILY EXPRESS
Support for the breaking up of Britain plummets
Is there even a debate about this stuff any more? Can ANYONE construct a believable case that Scotland’s media are reporting the referendum fairly and even-handedly? We’d like to see them try. Scotland’s mainstream national press is now simply, in the most literal sense of the word, incredible.
Well done, and yes I agree.
They are the biggest threat to democracy in Scotland.
We should all avoid, and take trust in the people to see through this.
Davy Lord …The Courier!!
Shurely schome mischtake son!
I’m shaken and stirred in a positive way.
Good start to Monday before I switch on Call Kaye
Food banks (all the SNP’s fault no doubt) Ach I’ll no bother!!
Man you look young for 45 Rev.
What’s the secret? Washing with holy water or something?
I wonder if Kenny F and his cohorts are planning to be AWOL next July and August?
And re the poll question, I, rather foolishly, thought the What Scotland Thinks graph of the trend would be based on the question.
It’s not only the loaded preamble but also and if ‘ this was the question’, it bloody well is the question.
The Panelbase poll has now been reported by The Herald:
link to heraldscotland.com
and Good Morning Scotland reported it this morning.
George Foulkes ?@GeorgeFoulkes 26m
Astonishing that the Courier leads on an SNP commissioned poll from Panelbase “an online survey offering cash rewards for taking part” Dodgy.
Dodgy indeed, “Lord” Foulkes, you are indeed. Bowels freeze much when you saw this?
You would think that peer to peer dialogue would never permit this kind of variance – of course it’s possible the Courier is off its rocker and has totally misread the Panelbase poll, unlike all the other sterling-class newspapers.
On the other hand, there certainly was cross-talk and dialogue to mislead the too stoooopid public and it’s only that the Courier missed that last briefing!
Do these journalists and editors actually have a soul to search?
Oh, just read the next bit of the article.
LOL. Was only a matter of time. Don’t get too excited yet, but parity is a good possibility by the end of the year.
We need all this stuff to be monitored and reported on by people who have a high profile and are likely to be listened to,we must have some!
Kudos again to Wings, keep up what you do, we need you. Somehow we need to spread the word constantly more and more each day,there must be a day when Scots get their back up and see MSM for what it is, a YES will then become unstoppable !
I’m seeing reports on twitter that the Devoplus poll actually offered 3 options. Anyone seen the original data?
I know this website’s poll showed a low percentage of people trust the media on the referendum but a lot of people I speak to hit me with questions about the situation post independence that are clearly based on nonsense they’ve picked up from the MSM or the BBC, they just don’t always remember where they got it from. On the positive side of things, there are clear indications that it’s changing, with the help of websites like this and people passing the word on, old fashioned word of mouth style. Oh, and another positive is that I have joined the ranks of those who have stopped paying their BBC tax/licence fee.
@Graeme
That’s an old herald article from 2011. However, it should serve as a reminder that even TNS – which is a typical high No and low Yes due to methodology – can conclude even stevens or Yes ahead.
As I’ve said before. Over the past year, lots of people who said Yes before have been saying no. Cold feet or whatever, these people won’t vote No on the day. It’s not in their hearts.
Gordon Brown to present positive case for union
The campaign was set up to give Labour its own voice in the referendum debate, separate to its role in Better Together with Conservatives and Liberal Democrats.
Mr Brown will be joined by Scottish Labour Party leader Johann Lamont and her deputy, the MP Anas Sarwar.
Mr Sarwar said: “The campaign to keep Scotland strong within the United Kingdom is finding huge support all over the country. The latest polls prove that our positive message about achieving more by working in partnership with our neighbours is what most of us want for Scotland.
link to thecourier.co.uk
————————————————–Aye right!
No, I don’t think there’s been any doubt for quite some time.
Post referendum should be a quite interesting time for the press as the other shoe drops.
The press in Scotland are a disgrace.
And Gordon Brown saying Union best chance for
the poor – is he having a laugh?
What is his attendance record for voting in Parliament? 12%?
Another disgrace.
KF- so cool, what a guy.
That story is already buried in the Herald, its classed under “other political news” and not even in the highlighted list.
Ahh I see its from 2011
I honestly despair. WTF is going on with the polling companies as well as the MSM. There is no chance the twisted question by Yougov could possibly re-write 44% Yes 43% No into 29% Yes and 59% No. Not a chance in hell.
There is a gremlin in the works here, and I think the answer lies in the polling companies rather than the questioners rhetoric.
In addition to their Project Fear we’re increasingly going to be bombarded with Project Jam Tomorrow. Look at the Brown nonsense today.
Each and every utterance on that has to be scrutinised. At the BT meeting W Rennie, I’m pretty sure, was the only one to address it directly saying that they, the Lib Dems had their Home Rule stuff and also there were 2 or 3 think tanks who’d drawn up drafts!
Quite they’ll be lying under dust sheets already.
Oh, I wish I was in Dundee, I’d love to buy a Courier today. Not just for the Panelbase poll, but the news that Gordon Brown is finally getting involved in the NO campaign with United for Labour, a mere 14 weeks after the UwL announcement/launch, must be a helluva speech if it took that long to prepare.
Gordon Brown, the gift that goes on giving. 🙂
Scottish_Skier, as the resident polling expert, do you have any idea if YouGov have a chance to correct their blatantly flawed weighting system from Westminster voting intention to Holyrood voting intention, or are they basically condemned to look like idiots until the big day?
And I love Lord Foulkes’ outburst. He’s clearly never done a YouGov poll. I have. I did it online, and I was put into a prize draw afterwards.
Albalha
link to bbc.co.uk
Project jam Tomorrow being test run by the BBC in Wales.
I wonder if they’d get a different result if they’d asked:
If there was a referendum tomorrow on Westminster holding democracy hostage from the Scottish government in perpetuity and this were the question, how would you vote? Should Scotland be an independent country?
@BTF
Thanks for that, we’re going to be rained down upon with this shit!
Just read the Hootsmon article (Barf!) Apparently the US and Canada have a 44% deficit in trade because of their border and somehow this equates to the situation where we should stay in the UK ’cause we would then have a border!!
Also there would be no flow of populations between Scotland and rUK because this is what happens between Germany and Austria ‘Cause they’ve got a border.
Honest to God you couldn’t make this up—Oh wait! they did.
, do you have any idea if YouGov have a chance to correct their blatantly flawed weighting system from Westminster voting intention to Holyrood voting intention, or are they basically condemned to look like idiots until the big day?
I suspect the latter. They’ve been at odds with every other polling company – even the ones that have really high No and lower Yes – since 2007. You’d have thought they’d have asked themselves why.
And if the above was the question…. Would only make things worse.
Give them enough rope and they will hang themselves ,as long as the deluded msm continue to believe they are shaping public opinion , and the no campaign believe their own hype, they will bumble along for the next year, confident of victory. It is only when the vote actually takes place, we will see how the Scottish public really feel.Their attempts to personalise the referendum into a vote for or against Alec Salmond may also backfire on them , ‘cos if you look at what the papers and polls were showing before the S.N.P’S landslide victory, and compare it to what actually happened, they showed a stunning amount of ineptitude, and a complete lack of understanding of true public feeling. As long as we keep up the steady, calm , and rational approach , we will continue to swing more and more undecided voters, one of the speakers at last years rally asked us to try and convince one no voter each to change their mind , I personally have converted 2 and my15 yr old daughter about 4 of her friends, if we all do the same freedom is assured.
Yup, it would appear the Scottish press spread as much misinformation as the young Stu Campbell did hair gel sales in the 1980s.
This is very very important.
What these hugely different poll results do is seriously undermine polls and make it difficult for our opponents to use them effectively against us.
I also believe that the most appropriate response to any YouGov poll is to pour scorn on it. Their record on Scottish polling is appalling.
@weejamie
My main conversion work is on my circa 80 years mother and her pals. As a group they will turn out and there are a fair few of them. However they seem very susceptible to headlines. My main tack is that it’s really not about them but rather their grandchildren, chip, chip, chip away as you say.
Wild fluctuations in opinion polls often mark a sea change, it just takes time for the dust to settle and people (and polling companies) adjust to the new reality. We have to expect huge disparities in results for a period. One things is certain, however. Change is in the air.
So what is Osborne saying? That the UK border costs us and we should get rid of it and merge with the EU fully making us all thousands of pounbds (euros, who cares) richer. Is he refusing to make us richer? I demand to know 😉
As scare story de jour this is complete and utter mince. I thought the silly season was over once September started.
I guess Better Together are bitter that the panel base poll has come out so soon after their stage managed agitprop. Foulkes and twitter are a fantastic combo – I don’t think I have read one of his yet that hasn’t made me laugh.
Is Gordon weighing in because he thinks Darling is not cutting the mustard? The clunking fist will clunk and mobile phones will be lobbed…question is who at?
I thought the UK Treasury had already worked out that independence would cost Scots £1.00? Is the prediction for UK inflation really so high that £1.00 has risen to £2,000.00?
Albalha
I am a Panda not a f?
Surely when independent we can sort some of this stuff.
———————————
SCOTLAND’S councils have been accused of sending the poor to food banks rather than pay out benefits that are rightfully theirs.
Labour in Scotland and poverty campaigners claim local authorities are increasingly using charities as an extension of the welfare state.
They say many people who tell councils they have financial difficulties are advised to go to food banks – without being told about cash or voucher help available under the new £33million Scottish Welfare Fund.
link to dailyrecord.co.uk
————————————-
Oh wait …. Gordon says that we have to share the cake equally so best stick together eh!
@BTP
Sorry about that! Just back from feeding my ferrets, that must have been in my mind.
ferrets
jeeeezzz, some people are weird.
But then again, I think I am a Panda, no I know it.
Alternatively;
“Scotch whisky exports hit a record £4.27bn last year, accounting for around a quarter of the UK’s food and drink sales overseas” (telegraph on 2nd April this year) of which we already know the vast majority is exported from English ports and, I presume, linked to this perceived drop in exports to rUK (since after Independence we would be exporting directly from Scotland instead).
link to telegraph.co.uk
Also;
I recall reading somewhere that 85% of all renewable energy generated in the UK is Scottish Hydro Electricity … which is exported to the rUK via the national grid (sorry there is no link) and lets not talk about oil ;o) mmmmK
It would seem, with some 54 weeks to go before the vote, the different media have now shown their colours.
game on indeed
link to thecourier.co.uk
Speaking of the over 80’s, many are in care homes or nursing homes and have postal votes for elections and presumably for the coming referendum. Many, due to mental capacity or disability will be unable to complete the form themselves and therefor will depend on relatives or keyworkers to do this for them with the obvious opportunity for vote fraud.
I did notice that over the weekend Kenny Farq abandoned the last fig-leaf of impartiality and self-identified with the ‘NOOOOOOOOOOO’ Campaign
@Albalha
Having converted 2 out and out no voters by subtle use of hinting at stuff they don’t know,and just pointing them in the right direction as far as such sites as WOS, and newsnet ,asking them not to take my word for it , but make up their own minds then seeing them come back to me , stunned and incredulous at what the msm are doing, I have also convinced 4 of my in-laws who had no interest in even voting to being committed yes ‘s , my next thing is to make sure we fill the hill on the 21st, last year it was just me and my daughter, this year we will be a party of 6. Hope we can be so big it will be impossible for BBC scotland etc to ignore us or underestimate the crowd numbers AGAIN. Let’s make it so !
From the Robbie Dinwoodie article in the Herald-
Chris Eynon of TNS-BMRB said: “For now, the ball is rolling in favour of the SNP and independence. However, a lot can change over the next two to three years.”
Lets hope a lot will change over just the next year!
Mmmm, I suppose, Annie. My mother (also Anne or occasionally Annie) was 94 when she voted in the 2011 election and you’re right, I had to fill in the voting paper for her because of her glaucoma. I had to point to the line for the signature and keep my finger there to show her where to sign.
Now she was solid, enthusiastic SNP so there was no conflict. And even if she’d told me to mark the Labour or the LibDem box I’d have done it. She absolutely knew her own mind. But the more confused of our elderly citizens? I wonder what will determine their votes? Still, probably not a very significant percentage overall – does anyone know?
Now that Mrs Brown’s boy has entered the fray, could we have his thoughts on the UKBA’s ‘Go Home’ campaign, or does he just reserve his comments to individuals like Gillian Duffy?
O/T – sorry. I see Amy MacDonald has weighed in on media bias. I love that girl.
Hope we can be so big it will be impossible for BBC scotland etc to ignore us or underestimate the crowd numbers AGAIN. Let’s make it so !
News flash. They WILL underestimate the crowd numbers, by up to 50%. Let’s hope that there are so many people there that even reports that there were half the real number will sound impressive.
Does Gordon Brown pay so little attention to politics these days (understandable perhaps when he is at Westminster so infrequently) that he is unaware that the Labour Party have been pushing a regionally based benefits agenda for the last 18 months?
To suggest that NI payments are hypothecated is a downright lie. Indeed he was well known during his time at the Treasury for being totally opposed to even the slightest introduction of hypothecation.
Sent Email to THe Heralds newsdesk asking if they have a policy of ignoring Panelbase poll results, (or words to that effect) . Will await an explanation before I cancel my £1 for 4 weeks subscription, but wont hold my breath…
We can take it that YouGov is an outlier. Panelbase have polled regularly over the last few months with the actual referendum question and those poll results have highlighted the gap between the two camps has narrowed.
But the long term trend in the polls since the referendum question has been known, even with these two recent polls included, has shown a narrowing of the gap. The referendum vote is going to be close, damn close.
link to news.stv.tv
meanwhile the state-funded impartial broadcaster still ponders what to say…..
heraldnomore
They are awaiting their orders from The Committee.
scottish_skier says:
2 September, 2013 at 8:57 am
@GraemeThat’s an old herald article from 2011.
Oops, sorry, so it is! I was sure Good Morning Scotland said that the Panelbase poll was reported in The Herald this morning, so I went looking for it there and all I came up with was that cauld kale! I’ll put it down to being groggy with the cold this morning!
meanwhile the state-funded impartial broadcaster still ponders what to say…..
It was reported in this morning’s GMS, just before 8 o’clock. At the time I wondered if it was our poll, but it sounds as if it wasn’t. Although they did report it then (maybe it was part of a round-up of newspaper headlines?), it wasn’t mentioned in the main news only five minutes later.
It will be interesting to see what the differences were that might lead to such a big difference from YouGov – it has to be more than just the weighting. I think it’s all about what’s said to the respondents before asking the question. Either there’s a preamble with words like splitting and separation and break-up, or there are earlier questions that push to a particular vote on the main question.
Which shows, really, that an awful lot of people are extremely persuadable. Couldn’t ask for better, really.
When’s our poll due, Stu?
But the long term trend in the polls since the referendum question has been known, even with these two recent polls included, has shown a narrowing of the gap. The referendum vote is going to be close, damn close.
Not necessarily. 🙂
News of that poll is the best birthday present to arrive so far – that and the Aye 18/9/14 t-shirt that is, (available from slanj)
Working hard on next year’s birthday wish list already. It’s a short list, one item, three letters…
Murray
Osborne’s claim seems to be that over the next 30 years Scotland’s trade will grow by 4% because we have no border with England, that equates to £2,000 per household. However, because of all of Osborne’s cuts households have already lost more than £2,000. A point Labour are perfectly happy to make in Westminster.
It should also be pointed out that 4% over 30 years is only 0.13% per annum or £67 per household per year. Quite how one would prove this 4% in 2043 actually happened or not is moot. I think this really is scraping the bottom of the barrel. There are so many other economic varibale in international trade in period that long as to make this strand almost indiscernable. It is, inshort, another woooooo scare story.
The Caadian Dollar has achieved parity with the American Dollar. Not much wrong there then!
It’s on the Scotsman website now:
link to scotsman.com
“The independence side is a point clear of the pro-union campaign – at 44 per cent to 43 per cent, with just over a year to go. Undecided voters are at 13 per cent”
“The poll shows that 93 per cent of Yes supporters are very likely to vote in the referendum, compared to 88 per cent of No supporters.”
With those “very likely to vote” the percentages become Yes – 41%, No – 38% (13% undecided)
And then if we discount the undecided’s it becomes Yes – 52%, No – 48%
Slightly o/t but germane. Conversation with cronies on Friday, Lagavulin inspired, chased with Jennings ale. Joe the trade unionist and former delegate mentioned a bar in Edinburgh displaying the Declaration of Arbroath (owner now deceased). I said “That is surely a good thing”. Reply in affirmative. Joe is no one’s fool and is still part-time employed by the N Lanarkshire Soviet so keeps his own counsel. Softly softly is the game there.
I think there are many hidden Yes votes that shall surface when the time comes.
Hail Alba
I see Amy MacDonald has weighed in on media bias. I love that girl.
Whereabouts?
Me too. With the full permission of Mrs SS as well.
Is this new panelbase poll in the courier & sun is the first to show Yes ahead?
Surely the beeb website should be reporting it?
Yup, it would appear the Scottish press spread as much misinformation as the young Stu Campbell did hair gel sales in the 1980s.
That image was just what they were looking for – after all, the Rev is a young, crazy-eyed braveheart separatist with a “savage” haircut, is he not?
I fully expect that all future stories concerning people in the independence debate are accompanied by pictures of the protaganists in their yoof. Mine involve long hair and loon pants 🙂
Ah …. thought so said as much in previous thread (50/50)
Yes some of us have been smelling a rat for some time. Do we agree now the gloves are off ??
Rev :
Herald the worst culprit today ! Shocking front page guff (spurious work from treasury quoted as fact). + Mr Gordon Brown’ (apparent financial expert & statesman ?) all the coverage you like.
Sun has it on front in side panel
No comment from Beeb .. any takers ???
Just updated Wiki with the latest info. Rev, you should add you poll into that list.
I have noted that the Herald is usually at its most virulent on Monday mornings. To counteract the Sunday version’s partial fairness?
Hail Alba
@ss
On her twitter account, third one up
link to twitter.com
Scottish independence: Panelbase poll puts Yes ahead
Scotsman’s headline.
From the Welsh BBC report, “A senior Conservative MP says a new Act of Union giving the four UK nations equal powers would strengthen the country.” When I read that his name was Mr Fabricant, I thought I must be reading a BBC Scotlandshire spoof.
Doesn’t he know that the Leader of the Conservatives in Scotland said there are five UK nations? And the UK Government legal experts wrote that only England was a nation and a country, the rest were bits and subsumed.
“Wales’ First Minister Carwyn Jones said he wanted “the Union to flourish, and Wales to play a dynamic role in it”; it looks like the Labour Party in Wales is vying with ours to see who is best at ass-licking its way to subservience.
So according to Kenny Farquharson only unionists go on holiday. Should WoS poll on that?
1. Should Scotland be an independent country?
2. Do you go on your holidays in July or August?
She is a good lass is Amy, although I have already bought her albums without knowing her views on the matter just because I like her music. Curious Thing has really grown on me and I find I play it more now than when I first bought it.
I’ve said this before but what the hell
Look at the No side, Tories, UKIP, BNP, EDL, SDL, CBI, OO, Loyalists (various factions), Lib Dems and Labour (what are you doing in this list?). OK many are not allowed to join BT because it is just so damned embarrassing but they still support BT.
The Yes side, SNP, SSP, Greens, Jimmy Reid’s Common Weal, Labour for Independence, Independents like Margo and Dennis, National Collective, a variety of independent Scottish business people, and most of the artists, poets, writers, musicians, actors and comedians.
Which side do you feel drawn to?
Maybe the Beeb just don’t do Panelbase these days. Or perhaps Prof Curtice is still studying the tables. Anyone checked his website yet?
Gillie
Wish I got 8 weeks holiday like Kenny. Britain stops for two months, who knew? No wonder the country is in such a mess.
@heraldnomore
Nothing yet on What Scotland Think site
link to blog.whatscotlandthinks.org
Surely The Scotsman headline writers can do better than this ” Scottish independance: Panelbase poll puts Yes ahead”
Surely it would be more Scotsman like to write “SNP funded Rogue poll puts support for Mugabe style dictatorship at 44% of those polled”
Just Messin’
@handandshrimp
And if she is a YES voter than the fact she supports Rangers and is an avid fan of Top Gear may surprise a few on the NO side of the debate.
All types of folks will be saying YES, they don’t get that imo.
Even the unionist Press & Journal has the Panelbase result.Inside-page of course.
the fact she supports Rangers
Didn’t know that. Still like her music though 😉
Interesting twitter comment from Amy Macdonand.
And from Aldous Huxley, Brave New World Revisited, 1958; “The survival of democracy depends on the ability of large numbers of people to make realistic choices in the light of adequate information.”
But such an aim doesn’t exist in the BBC editorial offices.
Watching coverage of the death of David Frost, made me think it was a sad memory of what investigative journalism and interviewing once was at the BBC. Though I would think journalists now still believe it represents them. He had to go to Al Jazeera in the end to continue to ask questions!
Google News 6 minutes ago.
SNP poll puts Yes campaign ahead
Herald.
Albalha
LOL She is a total petrol head isn’t she.
I think it is important that people realise Scotland will be a real country with real people, some will be petrol heads, some Johnny Cash fans, some vegans, some religious, some not. None of these preferences prevents them all coming together to say that together we can be a nation. A real nation that will prosper and develop and, yes, argue about this and that, as all nations do.
The Panelbase poll was commissioned by the SNP and their website has more details [1]
The Panelbase poll asked:
* “There will be a referendum on an independent Scotland on 18th of September 2014. How do you intend to vote in response to the question: Should Scotland be an independent country?” (Change from July 2013 Panelbase/Sunday Times poll in brackets):
Yes: 44% (+7)
No: 43% (-3)
Don’t Know: 13% (-4)
* “Who do you trust to take the best decisions for Scotland: the Scottish Government or the Westminster Government?”
The Scottish Government: 60%
The Westminster Government: 16%
Neither: 19%
Don’t Know: 5%
* “Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: ‘Scotland could be a successful independent country’.”
Yes, I agree: 52%
No, I disagree: 37%
Don’t Know: 11%
Consistent Panelbase methodology is to report independence referendum voting intentions on the basis of those in the categories (8-10) who are most likely and certain to vote in the referendum – a base of 908 – and the other findings above are also from this base. Among the full sample of 1,043 – including those less likely and certain not to vote – the figures are 41 per cent Yes, 42 per cent No, 17 per cent Don’t Know.
With regard to the last point, it’s worth pointing out that if YouGov followed their usual practice they won’t have adjusted for likelihood to vote (they normally only do this in the run up to the actual vote).
[1] Always try to look at the original press release to see your local media outlet of choice’s skill with copy and paste.
@handandshrimp
That’s the point. I reckon this site is probably a very good indicator of just how broad the support for YES is.
Which is why I like it! Can’t be doing with life in monochrome.
Amy and Rangers. I understood her BF is Celtic.
…But the green and the blue come between me and you. On a Saturday Afternoon….
…But the green and the blue they unite me and you.
We’re both Glasgow through and through.
@Hand and Shrimp
I fully expect that all future stories concerning people in the independence debate are accompanied by pictures of the protaganists in their yoof. Mine involve long hair and loon pants
I’m even worse than you – mine involve long hair and hot pants!
Long hair and hot pants?
I’ll drink to that.
@RogerMexico
Very interesting, personally I think the middle question on governance is key…..along the lines of …you think we’re better off now just think how much better things could be …..
I think the most shocking answer in that poll is the 37% that don’t believe Scotland could be a successful country. That level of lack of self belief is frightening. How the hell do they get up and dare to go outside of a day? How have we managed to bring up a generation with so many with no self belief.
On the plus side 52% do believe that Scotland could be a successful country. That is the 52% we need to vote Yes 🙂
@ss
Not much trust on here, tsk tsk!
From her own website ‘a lifelong Rangers fan’
link to amymacdonald.co.uk
What a great song. I suppose green comes first as blue rhymes with you.
Talented artists are able to get the message across more effectively than politicians and it’s always a good thing to have artists on your side.
All the newspapers seem to be printing the Panelbase story. It seems if one newspaper prints a story they all the others follow on with the same story.
Magnus Gardham has calculated that:
‘Of the full sample of 1043, support for staying in the UK retained a narrow lead, with 42% backing a No vote compared with 41% supporting a Yes vote.’
Have Radio Clyde on in work (don’t ask) and their newsman after mentioning (labouring would be more accurate) SOS poll yesterday claimed that the latest panelbase poll had Yes & No neck and neck this morning.
Oh and on another note, I signed up to contribute to YouGov sometime ago and the latest survey they asked me to contribute to was whether I believe in Ghosts, Ailens or UFO’s so maybe your last poll did have a bit of influence on Peter Kellner and co at least Rev!?
I wasn’t aware that Magnus was a psephologist or is it on a needs must basis?
😉
Cheers Roger fae Mexico
* “Do you agree or disagree with the following statement: ‘Scotland could be a successful independent country’.”Yes, I agree: 52%No, I disagree: 37%
I might suggest that there, within error, is your core no at 1/3, as MORI have found.
the fact she supports Rangers
All the references to Amy being a Ranger’s fan ,does this diminish her support in the eyes of some of you on here?
The behaviour ,attitude and views of Better Together towards Yes supporters is similar to the vitrol anyone supporting Rangers seems to get in many forums like this.
As I have stated many times if you want to find the true die hard British unionists cast your gaze towards Parkhead and count the Ex British cabinet ministers the existing and past British Labour unionist MPs.
Ex memebers of the BOE like Mr Brian Quinn who only last week was doing his deceitful best to prop up the British state and promote scaremongering articles compliments of the Scotsman.
To date i have not met a British MP at Ibrox ,cannot recall a British Cabinet minister.
I have no recollection of any member of BOE that went on to employment in Rangers FC.
So before you all spread your narrow minded closed opinions on RFC it would suit you better to look elsewhere for alleged enemies of Scottish independence.
I for one am getting fed up with all the anti Ranger bias on here.
If you want to alienate a complete section of Scots against in dependence you are going the right way about it by attacking in its entireity the biggest supported club in Scotland.
“I for one am getting fed up with all the anti Ranger bias on here.”
I’m going to get a lot MORE biased against Rangers fans if they keep making me go through their posts inserting paragraph breaks and removing dozens of bloody italic tags to make them readable 🙁
On the serious point, try not to be paranoid. It must have been said a million times on here that there ARE pro-indy Rangers fans, and that nobody’s tarring ALL Rangers fans with the Unionist brush, but it’s nevertheless an undeniable fact that 99.8% of all Union Flags sold in Scotland are waved at Ibrox.
(The rest are accounted for by giving three to every delegate at the Scottish Conservatives conference.)
As a generalisation, it’s true. But people are talking about Unionist Rangers fans. If you’re a pro-indy Rangers fan, they don’t mean you, so why be offended?
@RodMac
Ca, canny. My point was that the NO side are very blinkered in their opinion of who will be voting YES, myself on the other hand knows there are all types of people who’ll be voting YES, nothing is ever as monochrome as the spinners would have us believe.
I for one was not attacking any team or its supporters. I doubt anyone on here is uninformed enough to think that all supporters of any team think the same when it comes to independence.
But hey sorry for bringing it up, I was merely highlighting the wonder of counter intuition. An art the NO side hopefully will never embrace.
Rod
Nothing wrong with being a Rangers fan, The vast majority of their fans are just ordinary Scots from all walks of life, just any other club. They have some nutters but then again so do lots of other clubs.
HandandShrimp I think the most shocking answer in that poll is the 37% that don’t believe Scotland could be a successful country.
I thought that too when I read it first, but thinking about it a wee bit more it seems to me that that’s where the soft No vote lies. Some people have, sadly, just always thought that and some people may have been swayed by BT stuff, but think about this: EVEN THE NO SIDE THINK THAT SCOTLAND COULD BE A SUCCESSFUL COUNTRY!
So there’s a start to converting that 37%.
Murray McCallum at 9:40 am 2 sep et al
I thought the UK Treasury had already worked out that independence would cost Scots £1.00? Is the prediction for UK inflation really so high that £1.00 has risen to £2,000.00?
It is £2,000 over 30 years, ie, £70 pa and £2,000 in 30 years time when discounted is trivial.
(warning: image Not Safe For Anyone).
You were right, Rev. So hows about an up-to-date photie just to counterbalance?
Every time the NAW campaign aims at the half-wit vote with its infantile rubbish more previously unconvinced intelligent people find themselves drifting towards YES.
Its hardly a surprise but arch unionist Tam Dalyell’s public pronouncement last week that the NAW campaign was basically “fraudulent” was buried by the press.
Is there even a debate about this stuff any more? No.
Can ANYONE construct a believable case that Scotland’s media are reporting the referendum fairly and even-handedly? No, it has become full on Pravada.
We’d like to see them try. Scotland’s mainstream national press is now simply, in the most literal sense of the word, incredible. Yes. There are other words as well to describe them…
It could be worse Rodmac and be a Hibs fan 😉 My other half is a Rangers fan as is my nephews girlfriend and 4 other relations and all bar one are YES voters. One has went from NO to Dont Know, call it a work in progress.
Superb to see YES take the lead this early when it was suggested on here and elsewhere that it would happen probably at the turn of next year. So it seems we are exceeding our targets. It will be interesting to see the numbers at the Calton hill rally compared to last year when Margo McDonald asked us to convince one more person to vote YES. I think the Scottish tsunami is well under way. The NO Scotland campaign is scared stiff of the public getting to know the facts, thats why we are seeing their public meetings going private and the wheels coming off their ramshackle cart. Coupled with an increase in their propaganda that is getting more hysterical, ridiculous and desperate the nearer we get to the vote, all we need to do is convey this through word of mouth, social media and of course at the september rally. The more people we reach and inform by pointing them to sites like this the greater the YES vote. Now im really looking forward to the Revs poll.
The Devo Plus survey tables are now up on YouGov’s archive and confirm that they did indeed ask the question:
If there was a referendum tomorrow on Scotland leaving the United Kingdom and becoming an Independent Country and this was the question, how would you vote? Should Scotland be an independent country?
However they seem to have used the same wording when they last asked an independence question for Lord Ashcroft in April/May (xls) Their previous October 2012 one was of course before the wording was finalised, so you can’t compare.
TNS seem to have asked an almost identical question in their polls this year:
There will be a referendum on Scottish independence in the autumn of 2014.
If this referendum were to be held tomorrow, how would you vote in response to the question:
Should Scotland be an independent country?
And while Panelbase and MORI’s tables just show the referendum question without context, that may well be putting some context when the question is asked (as MORI is a phone poll this is very likely for them).
So on examination I don’t think that it is really a different question (there may be other problems with the survey but I’ll look at those later)
“TNS seem to have asked an almost identical question in their polls this year:
There will be a referendum on Scottish independence in the autumn of 2014.
If this referendum were to be held tomorrow, how would you vote in response to the question:
Should Scotland be an independent country? “
That’s not really “almost identical”. The key thing in the DevoPlus question is the addition of the pejorative “leaving the United Kingdom” bit.
Rod Mac
I’m also a Rangers supporter and a vehement supporter of Independence. I suppose it’s the OO connection and the UJ waving that upsets the YES folk. But many, many ‘Gers fans are also Indy supporters. They make up a very large proportion of Scottish football supporters, for chrissakes, when not a UJ can be seen. So be mindful other Indy supporters.
I was surprised at the number of Rangers fans I know who say they will be voting Yes, or are undecided.
There is often an assumption they are all influenced by the more bigoted element in their support, especially from northern Ireland, who are totally against Scottish self-government.
But they have a huge support base from all walks of life, and while most still identify with a Scottish and British identity, this doesn’t have to rule out Independence.
You don’t have to be ruled from London to be British.
I think the yes campaign needs to emphasise this more.
I’m a life long Rangers supporter too – voted Yes in 1979, voted Yes Yes in 1997 and will be voting Yes in 2014, and on Tuesday night thought to myself “as much as I don’t support you Well done Celtic”.
Ps Cracking photo – remembered I dyed my hair black and for one day only Mathew became Sioux of Sioux and the Banshees!!!!!- them were the days lol
On a more serious note – if the headlines keeps showing these poll results it will lead the No’s into a false sense of security.
Rev Are we asking the direct question in our poll?
Ps meant Wed night – hate when I make a mistake 🙂
We can definitely turn noes to yeses. Over the last year or so I’ve been talking to my sister in law about independence but she has been sceptical and took the line that as a socialist she would be be abandoning her working class comrades in England if she voted Yes. I had in fact given up with her as she sounded so definitely a no voter. I was surprised then when she called me and asked if I wanted to to accompany her to a talk about the economics of independence at the Scottish Parliament as part of the festival of politics. It turns out that she had listened to either me or her friends and had had another look at the facts – and had decided to vote yes. She brought a couple of her female friends as well who also will be voting yes.
If she and her friends are turning to Yes then it will be happening all over Scotland and I hope this poll is showing the turning of the tide.
jopparocks, and once they are Yes there’s nae going back!
Following this debate from Wales, this new Panelbase poll seems to confirm my belief that there are two huge trends pointing to YES next year.
The first trend is that the conventional media is increasingly mistrusted by most people, as it is intimately associated with the 30 years of ne-liberalism which has done so much to reduce the quality of life for people in all these isles. As Better Together are completely dependent on the conventional media, with no real grass-roots campaign to speak of, this essentially means that their message is fatally compromised from the off.
The second trend is that the internet is now allowing people to discover information for themselves and that facility to access information directly, beyond the reach of the conventional media, is a huge plus for the YES campaign. Its very nature means that it does not simply provide the information, but actively promotes this information-seeking process( the phenomenal increase in the number of site visits to Wings over Scotland over the past two years is testimony to this).
” You shall know the truth and the truth will set you free” seems so apposite in this case.
@Cymru Rydd
Glad to hear that many others are following the debate.
Yes come on peeps, there are lots of Rangers fans voting Yes, not interested in Rule Britannia or the Royals. I know there are lots of NOs at Ibrox but not sure if it’s the majority you believe. Any more anti Rangers comments and I might cry. Great work Stu with the site, I’m surprised I have any FB friends left the amount of stuff I post on Indy. I’m so proud to be part of this movement and encouraged by this sites hit figures, poll funding, photos from Edinburgh, today’s poll results. I was at Edinburgh last year myself (except for you lot) and will have at least 10 with me this year. See you all there, we’re going to do this
Nation Libre
I went by myself last year too – met lovely people on the bus though. I have some great photo’s just sitting on my computer doing nothing – won’t be able to make it this year – shame 🙁
Ahh, it was the SNP who polled me last week.
Well done Amy Macdonald.
and Welcome to all Rangers fans whether they be ….Yes, No or Undecided.
It’s coming yet for a that
DonnyWho says:
Surely The Scotsman headline writers can do better than this ” Scottish independance: Panelbase poll puts Yes ahead”
Surely it would be more Scotsman like to write “SNP funded Rogue poll puts support for Mugabe style dictatorship at 44% of those polled”
Just Messin’
Due to cut backs BBC Disreporting Scotland has no vacancies at this time, we will keep you mind. Better Together is looking for more censors though if you are willing to sign a zero hours contract!
We have plenty of evidence from this area that many Rangers supporters are voting YES. The pub in the town favoured by the OO had to take down a NO supporting poster (and I believe some ragamuffin kept setting fire to the Union Jack flag hanging above the door).
We’ve now got 71 names for our bus to the march on 21st so we’ve gone for a double decker. Will be very exciting going over the Rest and be Thankful!
Is there a source of ‘Rev’ wigs about yet, so that WoS readers would be able to be recognized. By each other, I hasten to add, not the Fear and Smear adherents. But would the Rev. get a royalty on each. Calton Hill awash in See You Rev plumage, I can see it now.
Like a See you Jimmy, only better. Not bitter.
Yes has the maths, Unionists the myths.
“All the references to Amy being a Ranger’s fan ,does this diminish her support in the eyes of some of you on here?”
Absolutely not.
I have nothing but respect for Rangers fans who can see past the politics unfortunately associated with their club.
The “£2000” each family “could” lose is actually based on a fantastical estimate of UK growth over 30 YEARS! So, from Independence Day there will be no growth in the Scottish economy for 30 years? Osborne, the one-trick-Chancellor, expects us to believe this rubbish? Is he really that stupid? No, don’t answer, of course he is, which is why the economy is still in meltdown, in spite of his manufacturing another housing bubble. We have to get out out of this broken Union.