If you think AV will lead to PR, read this
It won’t.
Okay, I should probably expand a little on that.
Firstly, ask yourself how it would happen. The Tories and Labour both have a huge vested interest in the status quo. Around half of Labour’s MPs are campaigning against AV (and the others are purely being opportunist because they’re in opposition), which gives the anti-AV camp an overwhelming Parliamentary majority of around 3:1. So who’s going to be driving any future reform through the Commons?
Labour had 13 years to implement electoral reform and didn’t, despite promising it in two manifestos and having very comfortable majorities to do it with. They’re only paying half-hearted lip service to extremely minor reform now, do you think they’re suddenly going to turn round and embrace the real thing when they get back into power, at which point FPTP will be working to their massive advantage? Sober up, folks.
The Tories will ALWAYS be against PR, and are at least being partially honest and principled in opposing it now. They believe in “strong” government at the expense of democracy, it’s a fundamental building block of Conservatism. (Even their own party isn’t democratic.) If you’re considering a Yes vote, ponder this: do you HONESTLY think David Cameron, as Prime Minister, would have even for a moment countenanced introducing a reform which he thought risked bringing PR a single step closer?
The Lib Dems held the balance of power last year – an opportunity which itself only arises about once every 40 or 50 years – and the best they could do was this, described so memorably by their own leader as a “miserable little compromise”. So what fantasy situation is it you’re imagining where they could force a referendum on PR? A vastly increased number of MPs giving them more bargaining power? Looked at the polls recently?
(One of two things will happen at the next General Election. Either the cuts will have worked, the economy will have recovered, everyone will be happy and the Tories will win in a landslide for saving the nation. Or they won’t, the economy will be ruined, half the population will be unemployed and Labour will win in a landslide. Either way the Lib Dems are screwed.)
The Lib Dems themselves have said this referendum is a “once in a lifetime” event. It’s only the second UK-wide referendum we’ve had in living memory. They don’t come around very often, and believing that we’ll get two on the same subject inside 40 years is daydreaming to the point of criminal, delusional irresponsibility.
(Some people argue for AV on the basis that it won’t lead to PR, but is still better in its own right than FPTP. But that’s wishful thinking too. Even if AV won, most people would just keep voting FPTP-style anyway. Can you really imagine a diehard Labour voter putting the Tories as their second, third, fourth or even fifth preference, and therefore risking contributing even marginally to them winning? At best you’ll get supporters of minor parties listing 1 and 2, everyone else just marking a 1, and the practical result of that will be exactly what we get now from tactical voting.)
All of this is moot anyway, because it assumes a win for AV today. Current polls are showing not only a defeat, but a crushing defeat. If No votes outnumber Yes ones two to one, as looks possible, it will be impossible to construct a rational, plausible argument against the claims that the public has given a resounding vote of confidence to the status quo.
Even now, though, there’s a course of action which can’t be so easily dismissed and ignored. An unusually high number of spoiled ballots will serve as proof that a large percentage of the electorate is unhappy with either of the options on offer today. Even (let’s say) a 60-20-20 split for No-Yes-Spoiled will keep the issue of electoral reform alive, in a way that a 60-40 defeat for AV simply won’t, because it’s a much less straightforward narrative.
It’s still not too late to make a difference. If, like me, you want PR then vote for both options. Or scrawl “MISERABLE LITTLE COMPROMISE” across the paper. Draw a cock and balls if you like. Just don’t be suckered by Cameron into doing what he wants. He wants you to make a fake choice so he can say the people have spoken and draw a line under the matter.
If you vote Yes or No, Cameron can’t lose. AV wouldn’t have kept a single Tory government of the last 50 years out of office, so while he pretends otherwise, he doesn’t really care if it comes in. He’s shot the fox of reform and enshrined Tory power while having clean hands – hey, he gave the people their reform, right?
If you vote No, he scores some extra brownie points but the outcome is the same – the whole issue of electoral reform has been killed stone dead by a resounding win for the status quo. Nobody reading these words today will live to see another referendum on the subject.
But if the people reject both options, there’s still a case to be argued. And while that’s a small victory, it’s the best that was ever on offer from this cynical stitch-up of a referendum. Better to keep one small candle alight than choose between two broken lightbulbs.
Aside from those doing the spoiling, does anyone care about spoilt ballots? I've been to counts, been at the results, have been involved in party committee rooms at every election for the past 8 or so years and I don't ever recall anyone showing the slightest interest in the numbers of spoilt ballots.
David Cameron introduced a vote on AV because he thought it wouldn't hurt him too much if it passed, and a no vote would let him quash all discussion of electoral reform. You're helping him. Good job.
"David Cameron introduced a vote on AV because he thought it wouldn't hurt him too much if it passed"
Exactly. Wake up.
"I've been to counts, been at the results, have been involved in party committee rooms at every election for the past 8 or so years and I don't ever recall anyone showing the slightest interest in the numbers of spoilt ballots."
That's because you've been dealing with elections, not a referendum. As I noted in my earlier piece, that's a very different bottle of squirrels.
This campaign would be fine if there was any chance of anything like 20% spoiled ballots.
However, considering that genuine spoiled ballots are likely to be at a minimum when there are only 2 choices, all your campaign could ever hope to achieve would be to nudge it up a point or two, and nothing near approaching 10%. Well within the margins of being spun or ignored away.
I suppose that if you genuinely don't see AV as a marginally fairer and more democratic option than FPTP, then a spoiled ballot is as good a way to waste your vote than not turning up at all, but you may as well of used that time more productively.
“This campaign would be fine if there was any chance of anything like 20% spoiled ballots.”
“Don’t try because you can’t win” is never a great argument. In a single-issue referendum, every single paper counts, including the spoiled ones – precisely because, as you note, there are only two choices. Opponents of reform can’t plausibly claim that people spoiled in error.
I don't necessarily disagree with the sentiment (though I still believe a vote for AV to be more constructive, as it would allow me to vote with my heart rather than my head), but the "miserable little compromise" quote often attributed to Clegg has been taken slightly out of context by the No campaign – it's more a response to Labour's negotiation package than to AV itself…
Mr Clegg said: "AV is a baby step in the right direction – only because nothing can be worse than the status quo. If we want to change British politics once and for all, we have got to have a quite simple system in which everyone's votes count. We think AV-plus is a feasible way to proceed. At least it is proportional – and it retains a constituency link.
"The Labour Party assumes that changes to the electoral system are like crumbs for the Liberal Democrats from the Labour table. I am not going to settle for a miserable little compromise thrashed out by the Labour Party."
link to independent.co.uk
"but the "miserable little compromise" quote often attributed to Clegg has been taken slightly out of context"
I'm not sure I see how, having read your full version. His words can't be taken as anything other than a scornful dismissal of AV, yet it's what he accepted from the Tories after refusing to accept it from Labour.
I admire your conviction, but I don't entirely agree with your analysis, and I am above all a pragmatist. I don't believe that spoiled ballots will play any part in tomorrow's political analysis of the referendum result, and right now, the interests of the anti-Tory majority in this country would be better served by a YES result.
We'd all love PR, but I can't see any political scenario where it will happen under FPTP. The more strength we give to minority parties, the more more likely it is to happen.
"I am above all a pragmatist."
Then you're doing it wrong, because AV will make not one blind bit of difference to anything except to kill the entire issue of reform, and if you want reform voting for AV is therefore not a pragmatic course of action.
I don't agree that AV will make no difference. It won't make a huge difference, but it will generally prevent the election of Tories when the Labour/Lib Dem vote is split down the middle. Most analysts predict that it would take 20 or so seats from the Tories, 10 or so from Labour, and give them to the Lib Dems (should their support recover) and other smaller parties. Instead of a Con/Dem coalition you'd much more likely have a more palatable Lab/Dem one. However you look at it, AV a least worse option than FPTP.
I will honestly be really shocked if there is a mention of spoiled ballots tomorrow. If you had conducted a campaign, postered, and gathered momentum for spoiling, then yes it might have an impact. But some randoms reading a blog isn't going to be enough for anyone to mention it. I may still be surprised.
I'm afraid I do prefer AV to FPTP. If people want to go in vote FPTP the same way, thats fine, but let me spend my first preference on my favourite party, and then tactically vote as usual.
"I will honestly be really shocked if there is a mention of spoiled ballots tomorrow."
Well, that entirely depends on how many there are.
As I said previously, I'm just some muppet with a blog, and I can't change the world by myself. All I have the power to do is put an idea out there and hope it gets picked up on. Sadly, most of the people who believe in PR chose to rubbish it instead, and so it'll fail. But at least I tried to do something within the very limited extent of my powers, rather than pissing away a once-in-a-lifetime chance by letting myself be fooled into picking the “least dead” of two dead horses.
"the Lib Dems (should their support recover)"
I think I've spotted the hole in your argument.
<blockquote><blockquote>"David Cameron introduced a vote on AV because he thought it wouldn't hurt him too much if it passed"</blockquote>
Exactly. Wake up.</blockquote>
You say it yourself: the likelihood of us ever getting proper PR is pretty much nil. This means the choice is between no PR but AV, or no PR but FPTP. The former is infinitely superior to the latter.
How is voting "no" going to lead to PR? Unless the plan is to antagonise the British people with such an unfair system that they eventually get off their asses and revolt, but the the likelihood of that happening is even slimmer than us getting PR…
"You say it yourself: the likelihood of us ever getting proper PR is pretty much nil."
When did I say that?
"How is voting "no" going to lead to PR?"
It won't. I'm not advocating voting "No".
I disagree with you on this one Stu. Spoilage, in my view, will be ignored and I think a vote for AV shows an appetite for change, not change now, not change in 10 years but 25 years down the line we could see another referendum.
On the other hand I actually like AV and it's possibly my preferred voting system so I would encourage people to vote for AV.
If you're voting for AV because you like it, that's fine and dandy. I'm talking to the people who think it's a step towards PR, because it absolutely isn't on any level. It might even be the opposite.
By dint of your own arguments Stu – a referendum on Scottish independence could well leave England as a 'Tory rump state'.
If that were the case, though it might take a long time (and a serious catastrophe on the part of an outgoing Conservative government) to get them a working/coalition majority in the commons, surely Labour would suddenly be very interested again in PR? And not in the vote-winning manifesto bullshit way of the New Labour glory years, but with an eye to actual electoral proportionality in government now that the status quo no longer served their needs?