Let’s not get carried away
Posted on
December 10, 2011 by
Rev. Stuart Campbell
Fearful of triumphalism over this week's poll results, we've been doing a little bit of digging here at WingsLand. And sure enough, we found some compelling evidence from this very year that pollsters Ipsos Mori are a "notoriously unreliable" outfit with a track record of inaccuracy when it comes to Scottish voting intentions:
We can only assume that the recent polls have been a parcel of such rogues.
Ah Stu – your triumphalism does you ……… the utmost credit, keep it up and keep rubbing their noses in it.
On the subject of rats and sinking ships, interesting to note that Danny Alexanders Inverness constituency agent has apparently gone and got him himself a new job as the SCDI's new Highland and Islands manager. Maybe he was after a career change, but the local agent of the Chief Secretary to the Treasury moving on half way through a parliament does highlight what the LD's own folk actually think will happen to them next time they face the electorate in the North.
Well, they were right, weren't they? It WAS inaccurate. It underestimated the SNP performance by 8 seats. It overestimated the Labour performance by the same amount. It underestimated the SNP's percentage-point lead by either 3% or 7%, depending on whether you're looking at the constituency or the list vote.
So duh, obviously this poll is unreliable, and not to be trusted.
Come to think of it, no, the poll will be perfectly reilable – next month, or whenever another one comes out showing the SNP on maybe only 48%. Then it will be banner headlines announcing that public support for the SNP is in free-fall!
Hey, it's all good, if you're a unionist!