Want some free money?
With just two days until an election that could mark either one of the greatest days in British political history or one of the blackest, we're all a bit nervous about the future. But one thing that's great for easing tension is free cash, and that's what appears to be on offer from Stan James this week.
The terrifying image above is Ladbrokes' predicted map of the UK come Friday morning. (You can find much more detail on it here.) It makes a few questionable assertions and contradicts itself in a number of places (eg Glasgow East), but where's the money?
The money, for once, is in Scotland. The Tories currently have just one of Scotland's 59 Westminster seats, and currently languish a poor 4th in the opinion polls there, hovering a percentage point or two either side of a miserable 15%. The party is still overwhelmingly loathed in Scotland, and the other three fight with each other over which hates the Tories the most.
(Even the Sun won't come out in open support of the Scottish Conservatives, for fear of mass desertions from its readership.)
It's very possible that their single MP (the hapless Shadow Scottish Secretary David Mundell) could lose his seat, and Ladbrokes' predictions of Tory gains in others (eg Renfrewshire East, that tiny little blue blob in the sea of pink around Glasgow) seem very dubious indeed, but the three predicted Tory Scottish seats shown on the map definitely look like the absolute extreme of best possible outcomes for the Conservatives.
In that light, then, Stan James' odds of 11/10 for the Tories to get 0-3 seats in Scotland seems as close as bookmakers ever come to offering free cash. Ladbrokes' odds have been tightening rapidly on the same bet (down to 1/2 last time I checked), so clearly it appears that the bookies are getting a little worried – lump your dosh on while you can, is WoSblog's advice.
The bet is hard to find on the website, and when I phoned them up they didn't know anything about it, but thanks to alert WoSblog viewer Andy this link will take you directly to it.
EDIT: Stan James seem to have sobered up and withdrawn the bet. However, this link suggests that ToteSport are offering 4/5, which is nearly as good.
NB: WoSblog IS NOT A PROFESSIONAL FINANCIAL ADVISER.
Hmmm. They're predicting a Tory victory in Stockton South, eh? HMMMMM.
Found the link: link to sports.ladbrokes.com
Scroll down about halfway down the page to "Number of Scottish Conservative seats". Odds are currently 4/7 on 0-3 seats
Wow. That's come in even further in the last hour, then, because it's barely 60 minutes since I rang them.
Incidentally, 4/6 on the Greens winning at least one seat is also looking pretty good. They're favourites to take Brighton Pavilion, with the Labour incumbent nowhere.
Looks a good punt, cheers!
Any chance of a money-back guarantee if it doesnt come in?
If the Tories win I’m going to kill myself, so speak to the executors of the estate about it.
Don't kill yourself. At least not until you leave me your iPhone thingimabob in the will.
A worrying sight, that map. We can only hope it won't be as bad as that.
Odds on the 0-3 Tories in Scotland are now 1/2!
Clearly everyone's taken my advice and got their life savings on it…
To be honest, I think it's going to be closer to the 0 end than the 3 end, too.
Gave it a go. Only 1/2 but still nets me £12.50 back for the 25 quid stake assuming it comes in :D. Only problem is, it'll be a mighty depressing bet to lose
Stan James are currently doing this same bet for 11/10.
Got any sort of link for that? I just rang them and they said they had no such market.
link to stanjames.com
Not sure if that works, but if not go to stanjames.com, click on politics, choose 'General Election 2010 – Total Seats' and then 'Total Scottish Conservative Seats' – Under 3.5 11/10
That route to the bet doesn’t seem to offer the option, but the direct link works fine. Bet placed, will amend feature now. Good work!
Bugger it looks like the scottish seat have been taken down:(
Yup, I can't see it on the site at all.
The lesson here would seem to be: don’t hang about when there’s a gift horse on the table.
If you’re genuinely paranoid you could always stick a bunch on at ToteSport for 0-3 seats then cover it with a 4-6 seats bet at Ladbrokes at 7/2
So you’ll only lose money if the Tories get 7 seats or more.
Yass! 50 bar for next to no risk, cheers Stuart!
Told the wife this morning and she said 'Why didn't you put more on?'. Guaranteed that she would have been 'Why are you risking our money on a silly bet?' if I'd told her about it before the election.
Thanks for the great tips Stu. I lumped £220 on 0-3 with totesport, netting me a return of £396
I owe you a pack (or two) of your favourite rare crisps!
Cheers Stu – rushed it and only got £20 on with Victor James, but as I'd hurriedly deposited £25 with Stan James before I realised they'd withdrawn it I shoved that on the Tories getting fewer than 325.5 and that came in easily, and was certainly a bet I wouldn't have made without your nudge.