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Wings Over Scotland

The direction of travel

Posted on September 19, 2013 by

One other thing struck us about the YouGov poll for the Sun we mentioned earlier today. It recorded voter responses by both how they voted in 2010 and how they plan to vote in 2015, and the numbers were drastically different.


If  for the sake of argument we regard the Lib Dems as still being very broadly on the (relative) left of the UK political spectrum, and the emergent UKIP as obviously on the right, we get a rather chilling result.


Left parties: 821 (61%)
Right parties: 528 (39%)

2015 intentions

Left parties: 627 (49.9%)
Right parties: 629 (50.1%)

(You can of course dispute the position of the Lib Dems, but to all intents and purposes it hasn’t changed since 2010 so it makes no difference to the calculation.)

That’s a massive 11% swing to the right in UK politics in under three and a half years. And that’s with Labour conceding ideological ground at every turn, promising to be tough on welfare and immigration in a desperate bid to appeal to the UKIP vote.

The tactic has worked to a very limited degree, increasing the party’s vote by a little over 13%. It seems logical to assume that most of that gain has come at the expense of the Lib Dems. The problem for Labour is that even if all of its gains came directly from the Lib Dems, it would still account for just 23% of the massive amount of support Nick Clegg’s party has shed (dropping a colossal 67% of its 2010 vote).

If we assume for simplicity the drop in the Tory vote has all gone to UKIP, that still means that almost twice as many Lib Dems  (40%) have defected to UKIP as to Labour. (Leaving 37% of 2010 Lib Dem voters who’ve either moved to fringe parties or given up completely in disgust.)

We’ve rarely seen a sharper illustration of just how little chance Labour has of winning in 2015, even in a coalition with the Lib Dems. The only glimmer it can cling to is the hope that UKIP will again fall into the narrow area where it splits the Tory vote and costs them seats, but without managing to win any of its own.

If you think the UK’s right-wing now, you ain’t seen nothing yet.

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    126 to “The direction of travel”

    1. AnneDon says:

      It’s fair to regard LIbDems as a leftish party in 2010, because that was what people thought they were voting for.

    2. Morag says:

      I’m not so sure that the LibDems can be treated the same for both elections, because in 2010 people thought they were getting a centre-left party and now they know they aren’t.  Hence the catastrophic fall in support, presumably.  However, that doesn’t negate Stu’s point that however you slice it a lot of the lost support seems to have ended up with UKIP.  That is downright weird.

    3. Simon says:

      I’m more suprised that you consider Labour to be a Left party.

      As far as I knew only the SNP and the Greens and the SSP are even vaguely left or central. All the others are well to the right of centre.

    4. handclapping says:

      If UKIP do well in the Euro election next year, there will be a possibility for Yes to concentrate minds on what would happen if we voted No.
      There is no such thing as a vote for the status quo; LabConDem are promising more Calman and UKIP to abolish MSPs and having a Grand Committee of MPs sitting at Holyrood once a week.
      We must get out and ask people what they imagine will happen if the vote is No.

    5. Andy-B says:

      Tory led Westminster Governments, seem to be moving towards the American model, cant really see a clear lefist party at Westminster now which could come to power.
      And as the poll points out it seems a large chunk of the populus south of the border, agree with right wing policies.
      South East England and London, seem to hold all the cards, no matter who’s in government at Westminster.
      Where does Scotland lie in this, well Scotland is just the the Golden Goose in which its assests are to be used in whichever way the next right or centre right goverment see fit.

    6. Ally says:

      If all goes well – the 2015 GN will be an irrelevance to us Scots!

    7. Murray McCallum says:

      LibDems switching to UKIP – what logic are these people applying eh? Maybe just shows how few voters actually read manifestos.
      With the switch to the right you have to “congratulate” the Tories for being so successful in blaming our woes on immigrants, unproductive pensioners, the poor, the disabled poor, the poor living in big houses, the poor with big families, poor single mums, … … Of course New Labour have not only failed to react to this but seem to be joining in.
      Is this what we want as our “family” values?

    8. Caroline Corfield says:

      there is support from traditional labour supporters for UKIP here in the NE of England, they believe that their woes are down to immigrants/EU laws and not governmental mismanagement, they think that a protest vote to UKIP will change that, it’s not that they don’t believe in traditional ‘Labour’ values anymore (despite Labour not believing in them), it’s just that they equate the UKIP with some sort of national protectionist party, they really don’t want to think about the rest, and the BBC helpfully doesn’t highlight it for them by only fielding the smiling face of Farage, pint and fag in hand (not a swastika tattooed skinhead and definitely more camera friendly than that BNP guy) at every opportunity and focussing on his ideas on Europe and immigration.

    9. Caroline Corfield says:

      oops sorry, could have done with some full stops in there

    10. Desimond says:

      Shadow business secretary Chuka Umunna has said Labour would not pledge to renationalise the Royal Mail, arguing that such move would be “completely irresponsible” and “like writing a blank cheque”.

    11. James S says:

      Here is where the parties stood at the 2010 General Election. THe SNP are the only middle of the road party left.

    12. Gillie says:

      Here is what Chuka Umunna said in July about the proposed sell-off of the Royal Mail. 
      “This treasured national institution is being sold off on the cheap to get income quickly to a Treasury whose economic strategy has failed. We oppose the government’s privatisation of Royal Mail. Maintaining the Royal Mail in public ownership gives the taxpayer an ongoing direct interest of universal postal services in this country […] and it ensures the taxpayer gets the share in the upside of modernisation and the increased profits which Royal Mail delivers.”
      Now Labour concedes it won’t renationalise “This treasured national institution”.
      How very Tory of them. 

    13. Gillie says:

      Now Labour have prevented a conference debate about the renationalisation of the railways. 
      This despite a statement from Shadow Transort Secretary Maria Eagle that, “that is perfectly possible to run a national rail service on a not-for-private-profit basis and deliver a service just as good, very arguably better, than a profit-driven train company”
      It is clear that Labour don’t want to frighten the Tory horses in Middle England. 

    14. Desimond says:

      Labour are increasing becoming that former lover, you tell yourself it was good before the break-up but in your heart of hearts, you know it was always rather uncomfortable.

      Will Scottish Labour see the future ahead and make the correct move?, not a chance. People like Jim Murphy and Anas Sarwar know their future is assured either in Westminster or by heading back to oust Johann in Scotland. More fool anyone who sticks by them.

    15. Juteman says:

      Re polls, Scottish Skier has mentioned that some polling companies use landlines, and this method is thought to skew the results, as only certain people are at home during the day.
      I was wondering if online polling could also be skewed towards certain folk. I often get an email on my phone asking me to complete a poll/survey. This usually happens in the early morning at work. I can’t take part until I get home. If the quota is met, and the poll closed early, then isn’t this method skewing the result, by ensuring only folk with access to a PC during the day can take part?
      I’m trying to figure out why most Yes/No polls don’t seem to agree with my experience of talking to folk I know.

    16. wee jamie says:

      Don’t know about anyone else, but the more time goes on ,the more foreign I feel, the particular brand of Englishness now prevalently  masquerading as “Britishness”in U.K politics is completely alien to my thoughts and feelings, NONE of the main parties are even close to the ideas and beliefs I grew up with. In  the mainstream U.K , if there was a general election tomorrow, I could not trust or vote for labour, lib- dem , conservative , or ukip. the only progress I can see is a YES vote in the referendum, and if this fails , i will be devastated and seriously consider emigration.

    17. wee folding bike says:

      wee jamie,
      When I was cycling round Dorset and the Isle of Wight in the summer I saw a lot of Union and St George flags on houses and in gardens. I’m not sure what it means but we don’t see the same number of saltires here… other than on my head at times.

    18. Colin Cameron says:

      The sell off of Royal Mail to make some quick cash reminds me of my Monopoly game last week:
      I was doing well, with a huge amount of properties, but not much cash, until I suddenly owed £1000 to my opponent. Seeing an opportunity, I gave her Mayfair to settle the debt (an excellent deal I thought, only worth £400). I was back in business. However, she also owned Park Lane and immediately went about building hotels, screwing over everyone else with £2000 rents and eventually winning the game with over £8000 in hand.

    19. rabb says:

      wee jamie
      My experience is same as yours. The polls just don’t stack up to what I’m coming across day to day. I only know one person now who isn’t voting yes and she’s only undecided currently.

    20. GrutsForTea says:

      LibDem to UKIP actually makes a bit more sense if you see them as protest votes. With LibDems selling their souls for power the “natural” English protest vote seems to have shifted to UKIP, who despite being right wing nutcases, are perceived as rejecting the status quo of Tory/Labour centre-right sludge.
      It’s a dire state of affairs in Westminster. It’s been getting steadily worse since god knows when and looks set to continue the spiral.

    21. Jimbo says:

      Thanks for the link, cynicalHighlander.
      Alex Salmond should explain this reckless move to the thousands of people across the UK who rely on a UK-wide postal service.”
      Having read it twice just to make sure I hadn’t misread it – it’s obvious that the hapless Rennie hasn’t grasped what independence for Scotland actually means.

    22. Dave McEwan Hill says:

      In all my over 50 years of campaigning I have never come across a politically coherent LibDem campaign. Their positions on anything have differed widely from election to election and from constituency to constituency.
      Issues like “federalism ” are dragged out as election manifesto conveniences and not addressed in anyway between elections and the only reason they held in support in Scotland was a community memory of the old Liberal party and the fact that they were neither Tory landlords or rough urban socialists.
      They are found out and with the assistance of the media who seem to think it wise to use him they are being buried by Willie Rennie.
      My deepest sympathies go to any remaining inheritors of the old Liberal tradition but I don’t imagine many of those have anything to do with this lot.

    23. Albalha says:

      Channel 4 doing an expose of sorts on Nigel Farage and his alleged ‘racist, fascist, neo fascist’ views as a teenager at ‘the exclusive Dulwich College’.
      Mask slipping further.

    24. joe kane says:

      Despite their invisible support in Scotland, the UKIP annual conference is being broadcast live at various times tomorrow on the BBC Parliament channel, which is a bit ironic given the fact it has no elected representatives in any of the parliaments or assemblies in the UK.

    25. Albalha says:

      Mr Crick making no headway in his interview with Farage but of course anyone that listened to the BBC Scotland David Miller interview knows how he reacts when challenged, the ‘cheeky chappy’ storms off in an angry huff.

    26. ScotFree1320 says:

      More people in my workplace are openly saying they’re undecided, whereas before now they were quiet undecided or Noes.  They’re more prepared to debate openly now, whereas last year there wasn’t much chat about the referendum at all.  

      The chief thing they took away from last night’s debate was that Swinney/Harvie came across well and honestly answered the questions about their vision of a post-Yes scenario, whereas Rennie/Goldie were not forthcoming at all about what would happen after a No vote.  They both realised that after a No vote, things wouldn’t just stay the same.

      Naturally I forwarded to them the Fife News Online editorial to enlighten them some more.

      We’re going to win this referendum!

    27. Craig P says:

      There was some vox pops from the lib dem conference on radio last night. One delegate reckoned their aim should be to triangulate into the middle ground between lab and con. Given that lab are currently trying to triangulate towards con and con are triangulating towards UKIP I don’t see where that leaves the principles of any of the parties except UKIP. 
      Joe Kane – just out of curiosity, do the words Owsley Sunshine mean anything to you?

    28. Murray McCallum says:

      Just looking at the Farage expose on C4 website
      Will this increase or decrease his support in his home market? “Cheeky chappy” who says what he likes versus teacher?

    29. Albalha says:

      He’ll always been seen as a jolly japes cheeky chappy to his supporters, thankfully not a sizeable group in Scotland, another indication of the growing difference between voters in England and Scotland.
      Clearly he’s not feted across England but, in my view sadly, he has a significant support, the European elections will be interesting to watch.

    30. Dan Huil says:

      I believe the polls,from now until September 2014,will continue to show recovering  support for the tories in England.
      I also believe ukip will do well,in England,in the Euro elections just before the referendum.
      These two scenarios will be a major factor in how people,especially the don’t-knows,will vote in the referendum – to the benefit of the Yes campaign.

    31. ronald alexander mcdonald says:

      Remember Cameron’s Big Society?  Now we know what it means. Kick people out of their houses and they can all live together under bridges and have a great old time. Nothing to worry about as there are more food banks popping up all over the place.
      Libdems are in it up to their necks. Labour’s reaction? We wouldn’t promise to reverse it.
      Maybe the UK are trying to be THE most unequal society in the  developed world. Right/left split? Not in Westminster.     

    32. Linda's back says:

      While Tories and Labour now neck and neck for Westminster the SNP storms ahead in Scotland

    33. Albalha says:

      Interesting so a roadshow with Nicola Sturgeon, Patrick Harvie and let’s say a choice of Pat Kane, Elaine C Smith, Lesley Riddoch, and others should seal the deal.
      Hopefully the YES folks are on the case.

    34. I was also thinking this morning that, given the changes we have seen to the parties over the recent past, there would be little need for the Lib Dems in an independent Scotland.

      We’d have the Greens and SSP on the Left, the SNP Centre-Left, Labour on Centre-Right and the Tories on the Right. I’m not sure where the Lib Dems would fit in.

    35. wee162 says:

      It’s exactly the same direction of travel that’s been going on since Kinnock. All it’s doing is solidifying.
      Labour by the time they got to Blair had basically decided that the best way to win elections was by aping tory policies. So they did. It left a middle ground in politics which has consistently been moving right because every time the tories or the media move a bit to the right the Labour Party has duly followed. The middle ground in national UK politics is massively to the right. And the party supposedly of the left simply try to appeal to the electorate by claiming to enact the same policies slightly more compassionately.
      In Scotland the electoral system for the Scottish Parliament has kept the Labour Party from being able to move at the same pace rightwards as their national party. due to pressure from their left in the shape of viable alternatives like the SNP, Greens (and initially) the SSP. But that’s a huge problem for them because they can’t completely abandon their pretence at being a national party leaving their Scottish party to go their own way. Look at the shambles they’re making of the bedroom tax in Scotland. They are all desperate to say “we’re abandoning it” but their national party won’t commit to that because they don’t want to be portrayed in England as being soft on welfare (and they would be).

    36. Paula Rose says:

      Today I was asked why I’m voting Yes (always wear a badge) so I said “why are you voting No” – because “we don’t know what the future holds”, outcome – another shift from solid No to don’t know, must find out more – direction of travel.

    37. Gfaetheblock says:

      The twist here is FPTP.  Ukip, LD and the SNP will be able to benefit from voters who can’t bring themselves to vote Tory or labour, but their ability to convert this to Westminster seats is the challenge. 
      Next Westminster government will be a lablib coalition for my money.

    38. call me dave says:

      Woman at work in reception says ” I must find out more about the independence thing” she had been to Holyrood to see the tapestries.
      Now she has been sceptical No for ever ex-Dundee Labour. I had been discussing the ‘scary stories ‘ in conversation for a while.
      Showed her NNS and WoS and Labour Hame and YES sites. Without making any real comment except to say hich one was pro and Agin.
      We shall see tomorrow as she was going to give them a look tonight.
      Hi Margaret, you know who your are!

    39. Ken Johnston says:

      Call Me Dave,
      That is what I have done. An A5 with Yes for your childrens, grandchildren’s future etc on one side.
      Other side 5 pro websites, including, of course this one, do I get a badge for that ingratation ?  Faun, faun. Plus 4 unionist sites.
      Yesterday, I swopped one of the BT leaflets the young girls were handing out for one of our newsheets . Plus one of my A5’s.

    40. call me dave says:

      Hi all
      Mr Bateman has 2 blogs going now. 1st humour and now 2nd one more serious.

    41. call me dave says:

      Ken Johnston
      Sorry skipped by your reply..
      That sounds fine, and I wish you all the best.   I have been trying , with some success to let folk nudge round to our point of view without being to in your face.
      Had a few going YES and plenty who were NO just on the turn.

    42. That chart is a horror show, UKIP storming in from nowhere and becoming the 3rd biggest party at Westminster, UKIP Tory coalition / stick up job coming up……….for many years to come, I don’t think that’s fantasy, it’s a distinct possibility, where’s that exit again ?

    43. joe kane says:

      A backbreaker followed by a powerslam, then off to hospital.
      This is what happens to Lib Dem MPs when no-one votes for them any more. They go around picking fights at public professional wrestling matches.
      The fun starts at 5.00 min –
      Lembit Opik, ACTUAL WRESTLING MATCH! 2nd June 2012
      Welsh Wrestling show in Welshpool, Powys 

    44. ianbrotherhood says:

      Has anyone seen a clip of Saffron Dickson’s contribution to the 5 Live debate where the audience-reaction is included fully? Clips I’ve seen end as soon as she stops speaking.
      ‘Inspirational’ doesn’t do it justice – one minute of her has the same effect on the naysayers’ endless gumbumping as light has on vampires.

    45. scottish_skier says:

      Next Westminster government will be a lablib coalition for my money.
      Well, if the current polls are correct and Scotland ends up voting in 2015, Labour will not be able to rely on 40 Scots MPs and the libs will be lucky to get a couple. SNP on at least 45% for Westminster VI; happened at the same time as 2011 and remained largely unchanged since.

    46. Dave McEwan Hill says:

      We have to make the NAWS ashamed. I think many of them already are and aspirational and inspirational will win the vote. In good time

    47. Red Squirrel says:

      OT sorry – from next year the GP contract will be negotiated separately by each country.  Scottish general practice has been protected from Labour/Tory meddling by SGHD and this plan is very much to be welcomed.

    48. Iain says:

      @ call me dave
      ‘Mr Bateman has 2 blogs going now. 1st humour and now 2nd one more serious.’
      Man, I’m thinking it’s a good job Derek left the BBC when he did, or else there might have been a ‘Network’ moment!

    49. Firestarter says:

      Sorry to go O/T ……… but I posted on another thread (Colour Separation) at 7:09am today :
      “Have I woken up in a parallel universe? Comments allowed on a BBC article – on independence? Whatever next ! Airborne pork?
      Also, a quick glance at the comments (885 of them at time of posting)it  seems that pro-indy far outnumber pro-Union. Who knew?”
      This article was on the MAIN BBC (Scotland) page and was the top article. Where is it now? Gone . completely gone. Not dropped down the list, …… just GONE! Shunted off to item 5 on the list on the “Scotland Politics” page …….. with comments closed!
      *bangs head off wall*
      Obviously just a sop to feign impartiality. Who are they trying to kid!

    50. ianbrotherhood says:

      Given that so many of us will be travelling – various distances, by various means -to the rally, here’s a cheery wee tune to whistle as the miles click down. Rafferty, City to City:

    51. twenty14 says:

      Are we going to be singing on Saturday – I like singing ( sorry Rev ) ( smiley face )

    52. ianbrotherhood says:

      Some folk will have to drive all night:

    53. Linda's back says:

      Andy Murray in Mock the Week audience some comedian Hal Cruttenden says if Scotland goes independent Murray wouldn’t be in the Davis Cup.
      Not sure if it was ignorance or arrogance as currently Scotland would be in the elite group and RuK nowhere but Murray didn’t comment / rise to the bait. 

    54. Morag says:

      OK Stu, Derek Bateman’s latest has appeared in NNS under his own name.  I think you can put him on the blogroll now.

    55. kininvie says:

      And here is Derek Bateman in serious mode….inspiring stuff.

    56. twenty14 says:

      We could all hum ” wind beneath my ” Wings ” as we approach the hill ( another smiley face and apologetic face )

    57. gordoz says:

      Couldn’t put this better / Great stuff (D Bateman)

      “ I’m a Scot.  Whatever my feelings towards others, I’m not confused about my identity.  I am Scottish.  Yes, I know I’m a British subject with a passport but I can’t avoid that.  It was inherited.  As many have said before, whatever it says on my UK records, I am a Scot where it matters – in my heart.
      And that’s where it ties in to the immigrant community because that is their option too, to regard themselves as Scots and their home as Scotland.  It just isn’t an issue, having a multiple identity as countless Irish folk in Scotland can testify.  You can have both if that’s your choice – Pakistani and Scottish.
      But the question in the referendum does require a choice.  It is in essence asking who you are because it is inherent in the preference of status you choose for your country.  When presented with the option, it is the clearest expression of nationality to choose statehood.  To deliberately decline to do so is to downgrade your nationality.
      The question asks, assuming you see yourself as a Scot, if you want your country to have the full range of government powers to run its own affairs and acquire the internationally acknowledged status of independence.  In other words, do you aspire to be like every other member in the United Nations where all nationalities take their place as normal sovereign countries? Or, do you prefer to think of your country as Britain in which Scotland plays a subsidiary part as a regionally-administered province subject to policies largely decided for the needs of a majority based elsewhere? (By a parliamentary system in which Scotland now has 4 per cent representation)”

      I have always struggled with this idea of ‘Scottish and British’ and perhaps its time to turn this on the No’s and indeed the close to switching dont knows. Its difficult to argue against Derek Batemens words above. Please take time to read the link below. Its a great and inspirational read.

      Apologies Rev but this is very good

    58. twenty14 says:

      I just put his last paragraph on facebook – it sums it all up for me –
      The national pride, the easily summoned passion for the icons and history, your genuine love of Scotland, won’t be enough. This is the moment of truth for every Scot. How much do you believe in Scotland, even at cost to yourself? If the answer is: Not enough to accord it the rightful status of every other country, then vote No. Vote for Britain. But remember that the next time a blue jersey or a pipe band or a nostalgic journey home or a Hebridean ferry stirs that familiar deep feeling in your heart.
      You, alone among the Scots over 300 years, had the chance in your hands to do for Scotland what generations in the past gave their lives for and you said No….

    59. Linda's back says:

      More good news not reported in MSM
      More than 30 years life in West of Shetland gas fields

    60. scottish_skier says:

      More than 30 years life in West of Shetland gas fields
      Aye, was involved in Laggan-Tormore; pipeline dehydration stuff. I could tell you more, but I’d need to kill you afterwards 😉
      Big gas field. A lot more out there.

    61. gordoz says:

      Its 11pm – Oh here comes sneering Brewer  !
      Questioning & sneering smarm disrespect for Scottish Goverment official.
      Swinney bats away BBC assertions, ok pounce now interupt (Brewer) blah, blah, blah.
      Classic bias crxp. 
      Pathetic scaremongering by UK government agency.

    62. Linda's back says:

      Ian Murray’s gas in a peep as he has been gazumped over Royal Mail being returned to public ownership if we vote Yes in 2014

    63. Jimbo says:

      Apologies – OT.
      Just a thought. The Scottish government have declared that should Westminster privatise the Royal Mail, they will re-nationalise it when Scotland resumes independence.
      That’ll make potential buyers pause for thought before jumping in to snap it up.

    64. jim mitchell says:

      I think that it is now becoming obvious that the Libdems, Labour and the Tories as well as UKIP are starting to position themselves with the next British General Election in mind and that we can benefit, there will be times when what they settle on, with English votes in mind, will be of no use to Scotland.
      It will also mean that Labour’s Scottish crew will have to do more explaining, spinning and telling lies, in other words thinking for themselves, which they are not good at, and that we can exploit!  

    65. ianbrotherhood says:

      Does anyone care what coverage the BBC gives to the rally? Does it matter any more, what script Jackie, Gary, Brian, Raymond or Kaye are handed?
      Feels like we’re now beyond fretting over MSM treatment of this movement. Of course, it’ll be interesting to analyse it all after the event.
      But it’s ‘the event’ that counts – this Saturday is shaping up to be the ‘Woodstock’ on the way to independence: everyone in a free Scotland, ten, thirty years hence, will claim to have been there. 
      So, if you’re still swithering, why not just go? Enjoy the atmosphere, the music, the banter, and have a great day – even if you’re unconvinced – but make sure you take some photies, have proof to show the grandweans.
      No shame in being a Johnny-come-lately – the important thing is that you, eventually, and by whatever means, get there.

    66. jim mitchell says:

      Gordoz, re the sneering etc, as someone who has been sneered at and worse since 1973, i leave you with the some of the words from one of Dick Gaughan’s songs. which i think you might like.
      They’ve called me an outlaw they’ve called me a dreamer
      They said I would change as I aged and grew old
      That the memory would fade of the things I had lived through
      That the flash fire of youth would slowly turn cold
      But I raise up my glass and drink deep of its flame
      To those who have gone who were links in the chain
      And I give my soul’s promise I give my heart’s pledge
      To outlaws and dreamers and life at the edge
      So here’s to the vision that binds us together
      That tears down the walls that would keep us apart
      And here’s to the future where dreams will be honoured
      And the fierce flame of freedom that burns in our hearts

    67. Murray McCallum says:

      I think I will have to stop watching the Gordon Brewer opinion show. I’ll go back to watching proper news programmes, though that usually rules out hearing much about the UK.

    68. Conan_the_Librarian says:

      Aye, Question Time is totally ignoring the referendum, concentrating on the 2015 General Election and free school meals for a fraction of schoolchildren in England.
      I really want to stick it right up them.

    69. Oldnat says:

      No need to think that lots of LDs went UKIP (though some no doubt did). There’s a constant churn in voting. After the Coalition, LDs went both to Lab and Con in England. With the rise of UKIP Lab & Con voters went UKIP.
      The tables just show the net effect of the churn.

    70. lumilumi says:

      Sorry to go O/T. I’m trying to catch up on recent events and I must say I loved Nicola Sturgeon’s final speech in Holyrood’s “Scotland’s future” debate on Wednesday.
      She produced an old leaflet for voting NO… With the same kind of arguments Better Together are pedling today. It’d lead to all kinds of economic mayhem and the sky would fall. That NO campaign was agaist the vote for women.
      The point being, changes are always resisted but turn out to be for the better. Brilliant, Nicola.
      Nicola Sturgeon was on fire.
      Imagine, if Scotland votes YES in 2014, sometime after 2016 there might be independent Scottish PM Nicola Sturgeon. The wee nippy lass who’ll fight Scotland’s corner in every international encounter. (It’d be a doddle for her, the independence fight will have been more difficult.)

    71. HandandShrimp says:

      Can’t watch Brewer. The bizarre pregnant pauses in the sentences are beyond irritating regardless of topic. I’ve pretty much given up on TV news. It has all become ever more Fox News infomercial in style and pretty much useless as a means of obtaining information.
      The weather looks like it will be quite pleasant for the rally…bordering on warm 🙂 It should be a good day out.

    72. gordoz says:

      Jim Mitchell : Magic Bro’
      Dick Gaughan’s version of Parcel o’ Rogues still the best I’ve ever witnessed !
      7 millionaires in the Labour shadow cabinet. Can you guess who they are ??
      Up the workers, comrades. !!!

    73. Conan_the_Librarian says:

      Shall you be joining the alkies in the Albanach first?

    74. James S says:

      O/T, sorry Rev,
      Can I just ask those who really know their stuff to join me on the BT facebook page. There are lots of undecideds on there who after a few minutes leave thinking we’re all racist nuts.
      Debating with them is easy as 99% haven’t a clue of their facts. But we need to be there to stop the undecideds making snap judgenments.
      Sure, you’ll have some of your posts deleted if it is detremental to their cause but I got one person last night to change their mind. That is worth it.
      Please come and give a hand. It is soul-destroying at times I grant you that but we need to be there as many pop in and make snap judgements based on what they read.

    75. HandandShrimp says:

      I will see what time I get in to Waverley. I’m meeting a couple of old Uni friends at the Tron who will be joining us on the amble up the hill. If I have time for a swift half (assuming the pub is not flowing out the door with people) I shall.

    76. HandandShrimp says:

      James S
      Alas I am totally barred from the BT page and cannot make any comments.

    77. Bill C says:


    78. Jock Russell says:

      The pattern described above is exactly what happened in the Eastleigh by-election in March 2013.  
      Tories and UKIP got 54% of the vote and Labour, Lib Dem and Independent got 46%
      Despite this the Lib Dems retained the seat but on a UK wide basis the prospect of a swing to the right of this degree is frightening.

    79. Oldnat says:

      Tomorrow’s YouGov for GB
      Lab UP! 1% lead over Tories after dead heat today. That’s not enough to stop England making Tories the biggest party again.

    80. ianbrotherhood says:

      So, it’s the Labour Conference next? Aye?
      Can anyone find an image of Milliband in which he doesn’t look gormless? (I just tried, and failed.)
      What is ‘gorm’ anyway?

    81. Dramfineday says:

      ianbrotherhood & jim Mitchell
      great articles guys – many thanks for them.
      I hope I might meet you just to say “hail fellow, well met”. I’ll be wearing a badge with the moniker.
      And the same sentiments to all you “wingers”
      Kind regards Dram

    82. Oldnat says:

      Scottish Skier (if you’re around)
      Explanation of newspaper weighting by YG given on UKPR.
      “The reason YouGov use newspaper weighting is that without it Labour would be too low (it’s to do with getting the balance of the type of working class Labour voters who’d read the Mirror, vs the sort of Labour voter who’d read the Guardian)”
      They obviously don’t understand the Scottish press (well few of us do!) with these equivalences –
      “Guardian / Independent/ Herald
      FT / Times / Telegraph/ Scotsman”

    83. Jimbo says:

      Just watched a recording of FMQs.
      How times have changed. How strange Scottish politics have become – How strange to see the Tory benches applaud Johann Lamont’s scripted attacks on the FM.

    84. rabb says:

      James S
      I would love to help you but I was banned from BT facebook for daring to question the worth of the glorious BBC.
      No doubt you’ll be blocked too if you carry on with this crusade to give people facts instead of scaring them shitless with ever desperate tails of doom.

    85. ianbrotherhood says:

      Kin right mister. 
      That’s why I don’t watch it anymore. It’s just embarrassing.
      This is supposed to be the parliament of a nation, having serious debates about things that ‘we’ care about?
      It’s not.
      That’s why I don’t watch it – if anything serious happens, it ends up covered here anyway.
      Fuck the BBC.

    86. Arbroath 1320 says:

      Perhaps we might get an idea of how people in England will vote in 2015 after this. I don’t know whereabouts in Essex this by election is or when it will take place but it might give everyone a bit of an eye opener.

    87. kininvie says:

      Ian – please, please, don’t go in for all that ‘where were you when…’ stuff. I can’t be there – I just can’t. But how I wish I could be….
      (There’s still next year, I suppose, but still….)

    88. clochoderic says:

      Ian Brotherhood, I enjoyed the Gerry Rafferty vid – was that the legendary Fraser Speirs playing the moothie on City to City?

    89. James S says:

      Rev, based on the replies above we need to talk concerning the hugely influential BT Facebook page. There are literally shitloads of people dropping in and having their media-led pre-conceived ideas reinforced on there. A few words from one of us does make a difference.
      I get my BT posts that contain actual quotes and references deleted all the time but I’m getting lots of PMs from don’t knows wanting to know more so I believe it is worth the effort.
      BT can’t delete us all if we’re ruthless. Otherwise those who pop into the BT page will leave with the same resigning demeanor as the rest of them on there. A sad place to be.
      We need to expose them on their home ground.

    90. kininvie says:

      I’ll tell you something that’s beginning to irritate me, Stu, and that is how difficult it is to find particular posts I want to refer people to – among the hundreds of excellent ones. I mean, you have 688 posts under the ‘analysis’ category and 917 under ‘Scottish politics’ and the general search doesn’t necessarily help either…..

      Is anyone geeky enough, or with enough time on their hands to pick out the posts that will be most useful in answering the undecideds, classify them a bit better than Stu’s categories, and give him a list to put up on a separate page? It would be a real help – and if we all contribute our favourites, it shouldn’t be too much work.

    91. Patrick Roden says:

      “Channel 4 doing an expose of sorts on Nigel Farage and his alleged ’racist, fascist, neo fascist’ views as a teenager at ‘the exclusive Dulwich College’.
      Mask slipping further.”

      I lived in England for 15 years or so and I would say that in my experience Nigel won’t be too concerned about his mask slipping, in fact it will probably boost his popularity with a lot of people.

      England’s media has slowly but surely demonised immigrants and benefit claimants (and they have carefully blended both into one big threat to ‘Englishness’)

      People think that England has suddenly lurched to the right, it hasn’t, it has been a slow drift but only now are people able to express views that were unacceptable just a few years back.

      I used to wonder why the media was portraying racism as being unacceptable but yet my personal experience was that as a Scot, the English felt able to confide in me that they were sick of immigrants and benefit scroungers and I could see the increasing hysteria being whipped up in the right wing media.

      Back in the year 2007/08 I began to warn the people who I worked with (mental health patients) that they couldn’t relay on benefits for the rest of their lives, as the media was beginning to sway people’s attitudes against disablement payments.

      I was told by my colleagues that I sounded more paranoid than some of my patients!

       I didn’t envisage the level of cruelty that Westminster would stoop to, but now nothing would surprise me.

      the important lesson I learned from watching the MSM in England was that first they begin to demonise a section of society by describing them as a drain on scarce resources, then they begin to take money away from this group and any politician daring to complain is soon smeared.

      They have already began to do it to the disabled and benefit claimants and immigrants, but their was another group that has been repeatedly called a drain on resources…The Scottish!

      It’s only the referendum that has slowed this down but rest assured, if we vote ‘NO’ we are in for a huge shock.

      Sorry didn’t start with a the intention of ranting…but we just must vote Yes.

    92. john king says:

      Mr Bateman’s last paragraph should be on flyers put through every door in Scotland 
      “The national pride, the easily summoned passion for the icons and history, your genuine love of Scotland, won’t be enough. This is the moment of truth for every Scot. How much do you believe in Scotland, even at cost to yourself? If the answer is: Not enough to accord it the rightful status of every other country, then vote No. Vote for Britain. But remember that the next time a blue jersey or a pipe band or a nostalgic journey home or a Hebridean ferry stirs that familiar deep feeling in your heart.
      You, alone among the Scots over 300 years, had the chance in your hands to do for Scotland what generations in the past gave their lives for and you said No….”

    93. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

      “Is anyone geeky enough, or with enough time on their hands to pick out the posts that will be most useful in answering the undecideds”

      That’s what the Reference page is for. Do suggest anything you think should be on there.

    94. john king says:

      Patrick Roden says @ 2.20am
      couldn’t agree more Patrick my recent holiday in Devon found just the same ill concealed dislike of Asians/ west Africans/ Afro Caribbeans there and this was an area of the country where there were fewer immigrants and certainly less Scots, every time we spoke heads turned in bemusement at the strange accent, 

      As lovely as Devon certainly is I had an uncomfortable feeling all the time I was there that the political leanings of that county were alien to me, all the local councils were Tory run and in so many ways it was obvious,
       the parking regulations in Torquay were so that even disabled drivers were required to pay full price for a parking space and no wider spaces were provided for people with wheelchairs and mobility issues,

       the meanness of spirit was evident in so many ways which left me feeling very dispirited that such a lovely county could be run by such empty soulless people 

    95. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

      “BT can’t delete us all if we’re ruthless”

      That’s the thing, though – they can and will. They’ve proved that, and thanks to the work of Silenced By BT we know the enormous extent of it. They will NOT let us win on their own patch. Time and again, good arguments in impeccably civil and polite forms are simply wiped out of existence.

      I’m not saying give up – anything we CAN get through there is invaluable, because there’s no point just talking to ourselves.

      But let’s not expend 100 units of energy only to see 99 of them wasted because they get censored. If you’ve got energy to spare, get out and knock some doors, go and do a bit of leafleting, spread the word on newspaper sites and forums, make it normal to talk about independence everywhere, not just in the politics ghettos.

      There are a million people out there who haven’t made up their minds. If we win them, the hardcore Naws are irrelevant.

    96. Albalha says:

      Oh well coming up on GMS they’re looking at ‘SNP plans to renationalise Royal Mail in an independent Scotland’.
      Wonder why they’re not asking Dave and Nick if they will place a moratorium on the plans as requested by the SNP until we’ve voted next year.
      And no doubt, after 8, we’ll here from D Alexander and his calls for a unified voice for Scotland after a NO vote.
      Fantasy politics indeed.

    97. scottish_skier says:

      Following getting them neck and neck for the first time in ages, Yougov have the Tories (34%) just one point behind Labour today (35%).
      The gap is closing. It may be speeding up in this respect.

    98. Albalha says:

      I predict we will be hearing a fair bit now from BT, and their media chums, about the difference between public ownership and nationalisation. Sadly some on the YES side don’t seem to understand the difference, it doesn’t help.

      It’s not 100% ownership as some seem to think.

    99. scottish_skier says:

      Explanation of newspaper weighting by YG given on UKPR.
      Yes, I can understand that they’ve found it works well for the UK, but that’s England really. As you say (and per my previous posts on the subject), readership demographics and associated political leanings are quite different in Scotland. They are weighting Scots to a UK demographic, skewing results in favour of Labour (e.g. Labour leaning Record readers) whilst down-weighting those who say ‘other’ (like me) or ‘none’…

    100. Roger Mexico says:

      scottish_skier says:

      Well, if the current polls are correct and Scotland ends up voting in 2015, Labour will not be able to rely on 40 Scots MPs and the libs will be lucky to get a couple. SNP on at least 45% for Westminster VI.
      Not really.  I’ve remarked before on how few Westminster polls we’ve had for Scotland, but Panelbase asked on their last poll.  The figures were:

      Lab  45%

      SNP  26%

      Con  15%

      Lib Dem  7%

      Green  3%

      Other   3%

      I suspect you’ll be as surprised as I was.

      They asked a specific likelihood to vote for Westminster and after also removing DKs the above figures are based on 75% of the original sample which is what you’d expect.  Though they did ask recalled 2010 vote, there’s no cross-tabs against it just against 2011, so we can’t see where the 2010 votes have since gone, unfortunately.

    101. scottish_skier says:

      Anyway, as Yougov seem to have changed to Holyrood past vote weighting (which reduced the Y/N gap by a whopping 11 points just like that), it looks like MORI and their outdated telephone approach will soon be all alone…

    102. scottish_skier says:

      Interesting, because their share of the UK national vote is typically 3-4% with some 5%’s recently. Regularly ahead or equal to Labour in subsets too.
      With Scotland normally comprising 8.3% of the UK voting electorate…
      I really wish the Westminster VI was asked more regularly in Scotland-wide polls. I’ll add in this rare one to my dataset, although it won’t make much difference.

    103. Training Day says:

      Sorry folks, but I’ll be leaving you to your miniscule separatist phone box gathering tomorrow. Douglas Alexander has just surfaced to tell us that he proposes (easy at the back there now..) A National Convention (woo-hoo!) To maybe look at some powers for Holyrood after Scots reject separation. These possibilities could be discussed, debated and more, and at the end of the process Dougie believes that, although by his own admission Wwesminster can ignore any recommendations, something might, conceivably, kinda maybe happen!

      Is this not what we’ve been waiting for?

    104. Brian Ritchie says:

      Can anyone find an image of Milliband in which he doesn’t look gormless? (I just tried, and failed.)
      I tried too – and failed. 
      What is ‘gorm’ anyway?
      Lacking intelligence and vitality; dull. [From dialectal gawm, sense, from Middle English gome, notice, from Old Norse gaumr.] gormless. adj.

    105. scottish_skier says:

      Oh, I note Panelbase weighted to 2010 on this one. Which  I suppose you’d think would make sense…
      But then the corresponding numbers for 2011 now look just a little odd. SNP apparently didn’t get a landslide (37%) with Labour just behind them (34%)…

      Anyway, as a result, I won’t be adding Panelbase to my data. Or at least only as an outlier. The weighted base is too far off reality.

    106. Roger Mexico says:

      scottish_skier says:
      [Re Oldnat’s explanation of newspaper weighting by YG given on UKPR.]
      Yes, I can understand that they’ve found it works well for the UK, but that’s England really.

      If you look at Anthony Wells’ reply to Old Nat, I’m not sure that he (or anyone else) thinks that it really works for the UK – it’s just that it’s a less bad way of dealing with under-representation of certain groups of voters than other they can think of.

      But given that, providing you use the figures for Scotland from the National Readership Survey for Scotland-only polls (looking at the full tables for YouGov’s most recent Scottish poll that’s what they appear to do), there’s no reason why using newspaper weighting shouldn’t work as well (or badly) for Scotland as the UK as a whole.

    107. ianbrotherhood says:

      ‘Ian – please, please, don’t go in for all that ‘where were you when…’ stuff. I can’t be there – I just can’t. But how I wish I could be…’
      Understood. Not meaning to have a go at anyone – I’ve got my ticket, but that doesn’t mean I’ll make it. Anything could happen.
      More interested in reaching those who really don’t ‘care’ much either way – plenty of them around, and not hard to imagine that being part of Saturday could sway an awful lot of them.
      It’s not easy for us here to get into the mind-set of people who genuinely don’t know about the referendum, this rally in Edinburgh etc. Many of them couldn’t identify a prominent politician if their lives depended on it – these people are real, and they all have a vote. 

    108. scottish_skier says:

      Is the readership survey for Scotland weighted to the Scottish demographic or have they just extracted the Scots figures from the UK one in which case it’s not necessarily a representative base? I can’t find Scotland only tables on NRS. It shouldn’t make a huge difference, but Yougov did have weighting to create a lot more e.g. more record readers than sun readers when it’s the other way around, at least in terms of print circulation. Likewise, ‘other’ (me) and ‘none’ were down-weighted considerably. Hmm, on the article you linked to they don’t have Sun figures online+print to compare!

    109. scottish_skier says:

      I totally agree with Oldnat when he responds to Anthony:
      Thanks for the explanation of the reason for newspaper weighting. I hadn’t seen that before.
      Mind you, when you use it in Scottish polls, I’m not sure that YG understands the press here. You simply can’t make these equivalences.
      “Guardian / Independent/ Herald
      FT / Times / Telegraph/ Scotsman”
      These are really not comparable groups, possibly reasonably so in socio-economic terms, but not in political leanings.

    110. MochaChoca says:

      Debate in Ayr town hall last night.
      Attendees polled on the way in the door were about 2 to 1 on the YES side and a few ‘don’t knows’.
      Panel consisted of SNP MSP Chic Brodie & YES Scotland’s Bill Boyd vs two local Conservative Councilors on the BT side. Debate chaired by a young fella from ‘Ayrshire Matters’ who was pretty good (couldn’t actually tell if he was YES or NO leaning).
      Bill Boyd was really good, Chic Bodie was OK but the main point for me was that the audience instantly spotted and shot down any questionable ‘facts’ from the two on the NO side (I suspect a good number of the audience read Wings).
      Hoped they’d poll again on the way out again to see if anyone had been swayed but they didn’t.

    111. ianbrotherhood says:

      No idea who was playing the moothie on the Rafferty vid, but he manages to look cool despite that gear – no mean feat. I loved the ‘set’ TOTP constructed for him – no expense spared, eh? A wee train going round and round…mind you, they’d need something to keep the punters interested as Rafferty was hardly Michael Jackson in performance.
      The Herald (print) had a wee feature yesterday – ‘Ten Songs for the Calton Hill rally’. Don’t remember who compiled it, but it was mostly predictable stuff. That’s my plan for this evening – soak up some good tunes, get in the mood.

    112. Desimond says:

      Why is this renationalising of Royal Mail being prortayed as a bad thing in the media? A crazy move by LibDems which no-one actually wants and now the SNP being portrayed as the bad guys for actually thinking ( once again) in the public interest.

      This crap about EMployees getting to 10%… £500 batches mind while Investmenst bankers clean up yet again with another unwanted IPO.

      Give it a few years before a large European company ( probably a government owned business) are in charge of Royal Mail Plc unless we vote Yes.

    113. Robert Louis says:

      Your posting at 0650am, I couldn’t agree more.
      We need more people on the ground, helping out, delivering leaflets to peoples houses, and thereby bypassing the blatantly anti Scottish, biased media.  Our big advantage is people, people, and more people – something bitter together and their BritNAT media puppets cannot match.
      Tomorrow will be a great day on Calton hill in Edinburgh, and the weather is looking good too!  Every single person counts, every single one, to send a clear message to bitter together and their pathetic subservient ‘Scottish’ media lapdugs.  
      It’s going to be one hell of a great day.

    114. Roger Mexico says:


      There’s an introductory video about the NRS here (warning starts with sound automatically).  It doesn’t say explicitly but I suspect it would weight its Scottish data separately to its own targets (and similarly for London which is the other area with a separate report).  Data tables are here

      Another allmedia article suggests that the Record and the Scottish Sun are now about even in readership.  The Sun seemed to do better online, though since the Sun has now gone subscription only there, that may well have changed.
      You see the down-weighting of ‘Other’ and ‘None’ in YouGov’s GB-wide polls as well.  It makes sense because the people who respond to online polls are more likely than average to get their news from online sites and so not bother to buy a print newspaper or if they do only get a regional/local one.  So you’d expect the None and Others to be over-represented in an online poll.

    115. Robert Louis says:

      Totally agree. The point which the BritNAT unionista cabal in Holyrood are missing, is the key role which the mail plays in remote communities across chunks of Scotland.  It isn’t just about letters.  
      They are just too stupid to even understand, that NO private company will want to continue such services, they will be looking for MAX profit – in fact a CEO of a private company is OBLIGED to do so.  The promise of Scotland’s First Minister, Alex Salmond, and the SNP to re-nationalise the Mail following independence, is an absolute winner.
      I am utterly astonished, yet again, to see that Labour want to keep the mail privatised, and refuse to commit to re-nationalise it.  How out of touch can Labour possibly get??????
      Seriously, I now think Labour in Scotland are finished.  There will be lots of lashing out and greetin, but nah, they’re finished. 

    116. Training Day says:

      Good to hear Bill Boyd did so well (it’s no surprise)  – good man, good public speaker, and just the kind we need to take the case out there. 

    117. rabb says:

      Funny, just went on to BT facebook and it’s allowing me to post again? I have taken the opportunity to spread the Yes message while I can so let’s see how long I last this time 🙂

    118. MochaChoca says:

      I’ve been banned on BT with 6 or 7 different facebook accounts, and then couldn’t be bother trying any more. Wonder if they’ve wiped the ban list, I’ll go on later and see if I can post again too.

    119. scottish_skier says:

      It doesn’t say explicitly but I suspect it would weight its Scottish data separately to its own targets 
      Thanks for the link. Suspecting isn’t good enough though 😉

      As I said, I don’t think it would make a huge difference, but as Anthony pointed out, the Yougov newspaper weighting is designed to up Labour support (to more realistic levels apparently), specifically for the UK as a whole.
      I’m not sure that’s wise in Scotland given that Labour have traditionally dominated to such a great extent here! We have little to no Tory vote after all and previous to 2010, a very large liberal contingent.
      As noted about Oldnat’s UKPR comment, while Yougov’s paper groupings might be reasonable in terms of socio-economic groups, they’re not in terms of political leanings of readers. You only need to look at tables to see that SNP support is strong across the complete socio-economic spectrum, which contrasts traditional party allegiances (e.g. poorer, working class voting labour and richer, more wealthy home owners Tory). The SNP are a ‘national’ party and really can be considered a movement as much as a party (a means to an end for many), attracting support from the moderate left, right, liberal and more traditional small c conservative. 
      The pollsters really don’t know how to handle Scotland given that only since devolution have they started polling here separately (they have many decades of experience at UK level).
      The spanner in the works is very much the SNP who have either partly (just at Holyrood) or wholly (at both Holyrood and Westminster in terms of VI) replaced Labour in a relatively short space of time (really since 2007), giving only 1 GE and 1 SE with hugely contrasting results  / party support for them to reference against. For example you have people who would call themselves long term Labour IDers, yet have started voting SNP. A large component of Lib voters have now abandoned them and shifted to SNP and possibly Labour. The massive swings (first to Labour, then back to SNP in the space of weeks in the latter case) seen ahead of 2011 are testament to this issue.
      It’s certainly going to be fun for poll geeks. We have so few polls in Scotland to work with normally. Now we’re going to have a year of poll overload!

    120. muttley79 says:

      @Training Day

      Sorry folks, but I’ll be leaving you to your miniscule separatist phone box gathering tomorrow. Douglas Alexander has just surfaced to tell us that he proposes (easy at the back there now..) A National Convention (woo-hoo!) To maybe look at some powers for Holyrood after Scots reject separation. These possibilities could be discussed, debated and more, and at the end of the process Dougie believes that, although by his own admission Wwesminster can ignore any recommendations, something might, conceivably, kinda maybe happen!
      Is this not what we’ve been waiting for?
      Yes, cancel the rally tomorrow folks, Douglas Alexander has spoken…. 😀 😀


    121. gordoz says:

      Awwww no need to bother then; Wee Alexander’s got Scotlands ills all sorted …….. rally cancelled folks !!!

    122. ianbrotherhood says:

      Aye, he’s on about the ‘vision’ thing again, as if he’s some kind of seer. Well, plenty of us already have a pretty clear vision of what an independent Scotland will look like, and it doesn’t include bawbags like him. He’d be better off working out what he can buy Wendy as a ‘sorry’ that she won’t attempt to shove up his hole.

    123. Training Day says:

      I’m detecting some hostility towards wee Dougie’s breakthrough proposal on here..
      Couldn’t we come together in a committee, nay, a Convention, to consider, discuss and debate the merits of his proposal? 
      Ach, we’ll no bother wur erse.

    124. Roger Mexico says:

      Thanks for the link. Suspecting isn’t good enough though 😉
      I don’t know.  People these days expect everything done for them. 😀

      I think Anthony made the point that the real concern was balancing between Mirror- and Guardian-reading Labour supporters (and presumably Sun- and Times- reading Tories).  The standard SEGs are a pretty rough way of picking up those various subtlties of class (and full of anomalies) which can have all sorts of effects on peoples’ views.  Other pollsters do other things, but no one thinks they’ve got it absolutely right.

      The same thing would presumably apply in Scotland even if the relative percentages are different.  Polls aren’t just concerned with Party political issues – to some extent most pollsters are already controlling for those using other means.

      There does seem something strange going on in Scotland with weighting though.  With the Panelbase poll, as you point out, the 2011 percentages don’t match those that actually happened[1] and although they don’t actually have to (they’ve filtered for Westminster after all) the differences would imply a lot of people voting for Holyrood not Westminster.  But it’s actually the other way round historically[2].

      I’ve a horrible feeling there’s a lot of different interacting things going on here: hard to reach groups (Westminster only); false recall of whether you voted; false recall of who you voted for[3]; false recall of which vote[4]; false/non recall of Westminster.
      [1]  Oddly enough the unweighted figures are a much better match.

      [2]  Also oddly Panelbase’s LTV8-10 for Westminster and Holyrood are almost exactly the same (84%), while we should expect Westminster to be more – turnout has always been 9-12 points higher.  The referendum LTV (for the first time they asked separately) is even higher though (89%).

      [3] I suspect there may be a lot of usual Labour voters who voted SNP who have forgotten and definately some people who voted Lib Dem (and that’s in 2011 not 2010).

      [4]  Not least the 12 people who claimed to have voted for non-existent Green constituency candidates. (Another reason why 2011 constituency VI isn’t great for weighting).

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