Here’s Kezia Dugdale in the Daily Record today:
If only there was somewhere that Labour DID already run the NHS so that we could judge the truth of that claim, eh readers?
And no, we’re not talking about Ruth Davidson living it up at Fingers Piano Bar. Kezia Dugdale tweeted this today:
Which would be a little bit like us gloating that Andy Murray was rubbish at tennis on the grounds that he was knocked out of Wimbledon this week.
The Labour Party’s current state of euphoric hubris about losing another election is at least partly explicable. Jeremy Corbyn increased his party’s 2015 vote in England and Wales by a thumping 40%, took the highest vote share of any Labour leader since 2001 (beating Tony Blair’s 2005 victory by five points), the highest actual vote since Blair’s 1997 landslide, and deprived the Tories of their overall majority.
Those achievements are tempered by the fact that while Corbyn vastly overperformed expectations and certainly gave Theresa May a bloody nose (and might well end up depriving her of the Prime Ministership once her party gets a challenger together), the morning-after reality is that Tory rule has been extended to at least 2022 – by which time Corbyn will be 73 – with the nasty hangover of the empowerment of the DUP.
(With both Labour and Corbyn personally now leading in the polls it’s pretty much impossible to see the Tories losing a vote of confidence which would trigger another exemption to the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act. Any new election would very likely lead not only to a Labour government but to a Jeremy Corbyn Labour government, a prospect to chill even the most rebellious Tory into meek and sober compliance.)
But it would be churlish to dispute that Corbyn has put Labour in its best position for nearly 20 years. The same is emphatically NOT true of Scottish Labour, which hasn’t stopped the Scottish media from desperately trying to pretend otherwise.
Brexit is already a shambles. Everyone south of Manchester is unhappy because it’s too suffocatingly hot to move, and everyone north of Manchester is unhappy because they’ve not got the sunshine. We could all, for various reasons, do with a chuckle.
So without further ado, readers, enjoy the “clueless metropolitan hacksplaining” hit of the summer: Kezia Dugdale, Comeback Queen.
Vote for the funniest line below.
The SNP were there for the taking in last week’s general election. Across the country they typically lost something around 10,000 votes per seat compared to the 2015 tsunami, and the vast majority of those seats formerly belonged to Scottish Labour.
Yet while Labour did take back six seats of the 41 they lost two years ago (most of them by wafer-thin margins), they fell short in dozens of others despite the huge scale of the SNP’s losses.
And the reason is that, even riding the coat-tails of the Jeremy Corbyn bounce, Kezia Dugdale’s northern regional branch office delivered a showing that was at best barely any better than the 2015 catastrophe, and in many cases actually worse.
We’re still on a break, really, but it’s a rotten dreich day today and we’re waiting in for a parcel, and we completed all our domestic administrative tasks yesterday, so just to kill a bit of time we number-crunched all the seats where Labour came second.
The results, if you’re Kezia Dugdale, should be dismally sobering.
We’ve written in the past about how rarely the vote in Scotland has any meaningful impact on the formation of the UK government, but the (first?) election of 2017 was one of those few occasions. Indeed, it could reasonably be argued that Scotland is mainly responsible for the complete mess that UK politics now finds itself in.
Had the seven seats won by Labour in Scotland gone to the Tories, Theresa May would have a working majority today (324 seats – taking out the Speaker and Sinn Fein MPs who don’t participate, the true threshold of majority is 322).
Conversely, had the 13 seats won by the Tories in Scotland gone to Labour OR (more plausibly) stayed with the SNP, Jeremy Corbyn would have been able to assemble a progressive alliance and form a government.
(Labour+SNP+Lib Dem would have added up to the required 322, with a cushion of five extra seats available from Plaid Cymru and the Greens. Readers who are – quite rightly – wary of considering the Lib Dems part of a progressive alliance should note that they wouldn’t be required to back Corbyn in this scenario, just not oppose him.)
It seems at the first glance, then, that a successful “stop the SNP” tactical voting campaign in Scotland bizarrely ensured that NEITHER the Tories nor Labour could form a stable UK government. (The Tories’ slapstick courting of the DUP looks set to produce the weakest administration since 1974. We see no way that another election this year can be avoided.)
But it didn’t happen quite as straightforwardly as that.
As we write this at just gone 4am, there are 140 seats still to declare. But there are some things we can say already.
1. The SNP have won the election in Scotland. They currently have 32 seats with a handful to declare, so they know that they’ll have more than the three Unionist parties put together. Their total, whatever it is, will be the second-highest in the party’s history, streets ahead of the previous second-best of 11.
2. Labour will be crowing about getting more seats than anyone expected – it’s looking like six – but in fact they’ve barely clung on to their 2015 vote share and most were won by tiny majorities of under 1000. Jeremy Corbyn has, however, largely won back the votes that Kezia Dugdale – who bitterly opposed his leadership – lost in the two years since then.
3. At this stage it seems inconceivable that Theresa May can stay on as Prime Minister. It appears certain that she’s lost her majority in an election where she was at one point expected to have one of more than 200 seats.
4. Jeremy Corbyn, however, has no chance of forming a government without SNP votes. So despite losing 20-odd seats, the SNP may well find themselves in a more powerful position than they were before the election was called.
5. Corbyn has also repeatedly stated that he won’t block a second independence referendum. Independence has now for some time been more popular than the SNP in polls, and if Corbyn does grant a Section 30 order in return for the SNP putting him into power – giving them control of the timing inside a four-year window – the game is very much on.
6. The SNP will now have to pursue that referendum with more urgency, because they can no longer be at all certain of securing a pro-independence majority at the next Holyrood election in 2021. The long grass is no longer an option.
7. It looks highly possible that Labour and Lib Dem tactical votes for Tories in Scottish seats made the difference between the Tories being able to assemble a majority with DUP support and not.
8. Nevertheless, the Tories have lost their majority at Westminster while the SNP have achieved a majority of Scottish seats, although the Tories got a bigger UK vote share than the SNP’s Scottish one. The debate about “mandates” just got a lot more complicated.
9. What happens with Brexit now is absolutely anyone’s guess.
10. A second general election this year is a very real possibility. Sob.
The next few days should be fun.
There was a minor kerfuffle on the STV leaders debate tonight.
The revelation that Kezia Dugdale may once have changed her mind about a second referendum on independence won’t have come as a particularly great shock to Wings readers, who just a week ago read a detailed account of the party’s countless U-turns and contradictions on the issue.
And what was notable was that Dugdale didn’t deny it. To anyone’s face, at least.
…that will satisfy the Unionist parties. Last night Ruth Davidson told STV viewers that even getting more than 50% of the vote in a general election wouldn’t give the SNP a mandate to pursue their manifesto policies.
She was echoing the words of Kezia Dugdale just over a year ago:
So that’s clear. Davidson has reversed her previous view. There is now no peaceful democratic avenue by which the people of Scotland could express the wish for a second referendum which the two main Unionist parties would accept. They have EXPLICITLY said, in full public view, that they would reject any democratic mandate.
And that’s frightening.
“It couldn’t be clearer than that” was Kezia Dugdale’s assertion tonight on the subject of whether a Labour UK government would block a second independence referendum, during her “Ask The Leader” interview with the BBC’s Glenn Campbell.
She’d insisted explicitly several times that a Jeremy Corbyn administration WOULD block a new indyref, even after being shown a video clip of Corbyn from earlier in the day saying he wouldn’t, and she repeatedly urged readers not to listen to the party’s leader and to instead go and look at the Labour manifesto.
So we did.
Today’s Daily Record has a swipe at Jeremy Corbyn for, well, let’s call them “mixed messages” over a second independence referendum. It suggests his Scottish branch manager Kezia Dugdale would have “her head in her hands” over his latest comments, which is a bit rich considering Dugdale’s own history on the subject.
And since her headline boast when she took over as leader of the North British office was that people would know exactly what Labour stood for (and indeed she spent all of the weekend’s keynote Sunday Politics interview listing all the things she’d been very very clear about), we thought we’d have a recap and see how that was going.
We’re not going to join in the attacks on a nurse who criticised Nicola Sturgeon during last night’s BBC election debate. While her lifestyle seems at a glance to be wildly at odds with her claim that she relied on foodbanks to survive, there are – genuinely – possible explanations for at least most of it.
Her daughter could have won a free scholarship to the £11,000-a-year George Heriot’s school. Family and friends could have paid for her five-star holidays to New York and frequent dinners in expensive restaurants. She lives in Stockbridge, which is a quite expensive area of Edinburgh – in itself the most expensive city in Scotland – where wages might not stretch as far as elsewhere.
Owning a convertible car isn’t proof that someone’s wealthy – I have one myself that’s worth less than £1000, and I also have a relative who has very little money but who nevertheless owns a horse just like Claire Austin’s daughter seemingly does. (It’s also possible to be quite poor but still own things you bought when you were less poor.)
It ill befits Yes supporters – who are happy to deploy the existence and growing use of foodbanks to justifiably attack the UK government – to complain if someone who calls the First Minister “wee Jimmy Krankie” adopts the same tactic. More to the point, we entirely agree with Ms Austin’s core view that nurses should be paid more in general, as we suspect most people do.
(And in Scotland, of course, they ARE paid more than in the rest of the UK, and under the SNP have always been given the full pay rises recommended by the independent pay board, which hasn’t been the case in England.)
But that still leaves some things hanging disquietingly in the air.
Wings Over Scotland is a (mainly) Scottish political media digest and monitor, which also offers its own commentary. (More)
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