We’re confused again
Posted on
June 24, 2012 by
Rev. Stuart Campbell
Can anyone help reconcile these two facts for us?
“Seventy-one per cent of people trust the Scottish Government to act in Scotland’s best interests (up from 61 per cent in 2010), compared to just 18 per cent who trust the UK Government (down from 35 per cent in 2007).“
“The number of people prepared to support Scottish independence is falling substantially, new polling suggests. A Mori Scotland poll found just 35% said they would vote ‘yes’ to independence north of the border, compared to 55% saying ‘no’.“
It’s not a rhetorical question. We don’t get it.
This is similar to polls carried out the year before the SNP majority government. They all seemed to register great trust in the SNP and Alex Salmond but then went on to show a Labour victory. This confused me at the time as online trending and anecdotal evidence suggested that the polls were wrong with regard to the outcome.
I’m not sure where the dichotomy comes from. Perhaps it’s in the methodology. Are the different questions weighted in the same way?
With regards to the independence poll, who knows? I read earlier of another poll which said 70% of respondents want a DevoMax question on the ballot. It’s a political position that I’ve never understood, leaving things such as defence and foreign affairs in a dictatorial relationship rather than the consensual one which independence offers, but maybe this does offer some sort of reassurance to cautious people and, if this is the case, maybe the SNP’s ‘management buyout’ approach to independence will work.
If I remember correctly the MORI poll was conducted during the queens little “bash” recently held in London. Could this not have something to do with the figures?
I also read somewhere recently, actually discussing this very poll, that pollsters use between 3% and 5% as their margin of error. Now, bearing in mind that this poll has only shown a drop of around 4% for support for Independence this would prove that support for Independence is holding up with a rock solid base. This was the conclusion of the piece that I was reading about the MORI poll.
Despite concerns in some quarters, and shit stirring by the D.B. I remain confident that this figure of 35% will, by the time we reach Autumn 2014, have amassed over 50%. In my view, with the recent launch of the YES campaign, and having in effect a 35% base to launch from, then surely we must see this as good news. Had the figure been in the 20% range then I agree we would have a real fright on our hands. A 35% base starting point gives me plenty of optimism that we will win in 2014!
ALBA gu BRATH!”
No real surprises or mystery Rev. As you pointed out some minor damage to the independence vote mainly due to incessant negative attacks in MSM coupled with Jubilee/Olympic year red white and blue hype. Dropping a couple of points after all that? No biggie.
How and ever the real clue to the current state of our union is the second poll on ‘Who do you trust to run the country?’, that’s the real fly in the no camp’s ointment. The FFA/Devo Max camp are definitely beginning to make their voices heard here and are positively in favour of home rule. Obviously they’ve enjoyed the current taster they’ve seen from the SG in the past five years and clearly are keen to expand the parliament’s powers to their max whilst retaining a formal union treaty. The interesting bit comes when the consultation report comes back and announcements are made on one question or two? This is going to be crucial. Who is seen to be stifling the vote of the FFA camp? The devo voter will be very swayed by this in my opinion. If the YES campaign is seen to be a deal killer their sympathy may head toward status quo in what they believe will be the short term. They’ll swallow jam tomorrow along with the butter and the bread.
If however the YES campaign uses the feedback to promote a second question and Westminster stamps its foot, then that desire for FFA may make the jump to the independence camp. Its a sticky one.
Don’t see a contradiction. 35% is well within the variance in Yes support as tracked by the estimable Scottish_Skier at
http://imageshack.us/photo/my-images/546/scottishindependenceyna.png/
I actually don’t see any contradiction here. Scots trust the Scottish government more than the Westminster one (good, good) and they want more powers for that government (also good). There’s no bad news here.
Of course, given the choice of a possible devo max question, the vast majority of people will pick what is easily seen as the least risky option. However, the Unionists have painted themselves into a corner and when Scots are faced with the stark choice between independence and the status quo, I just don’t see the status quo winning.
MORI’s CEO is Ben Page: “From 1987-1992 Ben Page worked for private sector businesses on corporate reputation and consumer research, working for companies like Shell, BAE Systems, Sky TV and IBM. Since 1992 he has worked closely with both Conservative and Labour ministers and senior policy makers across government, leading on work for Downing Street, the Cabinet Office, the Home Office and the Department of Health, as well as a wide range of local authorities and NHS Trusts.”
Now, I’m not accusing Mr.Page or MORI of bias, but let’s just say that it is my belief that they not neutral in the issue of Scotland regaining its independence. No proof, just a belief.
The MORI-Scotland poll links (above) to the website politics.co.uk. Its editorial board consists of Jason McCartney – Conservative MP for Colne Valley, Barry Sheerman – Labour MP for Huddersfield, Stephen Williams – Liberal Democrat MP for Bristol West and Nigel Evans – Deputy Speaker of the House of Commons having previously served as the Conservative MP for Ribble Valley.
Again, I have no proof of bias, but a website that has these four gents representing its “editorial board” will, presumably, not look upon Scottish independence in a favourable light!
Its editor is Mr. Ian Dunt, who is also Political Analyst for Yahoo, which I can can state without doubt is biased against Scottish independence.
On the politics.co.uk website, it has, amongst others, the following statements:
“…Also, SNP members themselves seemed lukewarm towards independence, with just 71% saying they would back it.” Now call me an old cynic, but that has got to be a load of shite! They’re saying that 29% of SNP members would vote No in the referendum… !!! That’s so funny it’s beyond comprehension. …” Aye, I’ll tell ye… I’ve been an SNP member for nigh on 35 years and in 2014 I’m going to vote No in the referendum, so I am..”
“First minister Alex Salmond appeared to be losing popularity, with a 21% fall in net support since August and nine per cent since January.” So, that’s a total of 30% fall in Alex Salmond’s popularity (in net support(?))… Ehh … aye, riiight!!
“Witness testimony from the Leveson inquiry has revealed the Scottish first minister to have an even more servile relationship with the Australian media mogul than many of his opponents in Westminster.” Now, that is just an out and out lie. That’s all.
From all of that; the politics.co.uk website and its ‘editors’, the website’s ‘interpretations’ of the truth and MORI’s polling ‘neutrality’ make of it what you will. I know what I think about it.
Maggie Thatcher, Winston Churchill, Ed Miliband, Nick Griffin, Gordon Brown, David Cameron, Ian ‘The Fuhrer’ Davidson, the Wee Frees, George Foulkes, the Scottish Defence League, Douglas Alexander, the Queen, Alistair Darling, the English Defence League, George Osborne, Jim Murphy, the British National Party, Johann Lamont, the Orange Order, Lord Haw-Haw, Brian Wilson, Lady Princess lah-deh-dah, Oswald Mosley, Lord George Robertson, the Black and Tans, the Scottish Labour Party, YOUR BOYS TOOK A HELL OF A BEATING TONIGHT!
Viva Italia!
fear of the unknown? To quote FDR ‘the only thing we have to fear is fear itself – nameless, unreasoning, unjustified terror which paralyzes needed efforts to convert retreat into action.’
O.K. folks, any one up for a wee giggle or three? 😆
http://bettertogether.net/pages/about
I found out about the Bitter Together campaign site from here. 😀
http://scottishindependence2014.co.uk/
I’m sure the Rev wouldn’t mind you all popping over once you have said your piece on this site first of course. 😀
Hope I haven’t stepped on your toes doing a wee bit of site advertising Rev. 🙁
71% of Scots trust the Scottish Government, with just 18% trusting Westminster.
35% of Scots will vote Yes in the referendum.
So it would seem 36% of Scots apparently think they are ostriches and act accordingly.
Also, 99% of humans are fucking stupid and refuse to open their eyes to basic truths that stare them in the face every day. But then I’m a misanthropic bastard.
Person from Sunday
http://www.dailyrecord.co.uk/news/politics-news/2012/06/24/alistair-darling-says-better-together-campaign-will-be-led-by-real-scots-86908-23900167/3/
Same person as 4 down, 4 across
http://www.bettertogether.net/
The two questions are asking subtly but significantly different things. I don’t think there is a contradiction in the polling.
The questions compare the perceived benefit to Scotland of a Scottish government with the perceived (lower) benefit of to Scotland of a UK government plus the perceived benefit of being in the Union.
So, if people think the attention of the Scottish government creates 5 Goodness Points and the relative lack of attention of the a UK government only creates 3 Goodness Points they would be right to prefer more Scottish government by a margin of 2 Goodness Points.
But if they think that being in the Union creates 3 Goodness points then the total Goodness Points from being in the Union are 6. 3 from lacklustre government and 3 from being in the Union.
So, all these polls suggest is that people think that the Scottish government does a better job of managing Scotland than the UK government but that people see the benefits from the Union as outweighing that better governmental performance.
@doug
I share your ‘confusion’. I posted this on another site after watching the video on the “bitter together, or else” web site:
I watched the video, and like others I am genuinely puzzled by the comments of these people. Are they “real” people, or actors? I know about the power of propaganda, I understand the two key ‘principles’ laid down by Goebbels:
Quote:
But even so, I am staggered that “apparently” many Scots actually believe this trash.
What can we do to undo the decades of lies and misinformation? This, I believe, is the major challenge to those of us who can see through the smoke and mirrors of the pro-dependency parties.
If we lose that battle, we will undoubtedly lose the war.