The sting’s the thing
We talk often of the “swarm of wasps” approach to debate that’s the main strategy of the No campaign. The guiding principle of it is to throw out so many dubious assertions, straw men and red herrings, all at once, that it’s all but impossible for your opponent to effectively counter all the different thrusts of the attack, like trying to swat wasps with a broken tennis racquet.
To see how it works, let’s take a look at the Herald’s front page splash today.
“SNP policy would leave £700m pension black hole after indy, says Labour by Michael Settle
The SNP Government’s pledge of guaranteed annual state pension rises will mean the cost of them to taxpayers will rocket from the current £53 million a year to a “black hole” of more than £700m by 2050 if Scotland became independent, according to Scottish Labour calculations.
STING! Straight away we’re presented with a confusing premise. Is that £700m in 2050 money, or today’s money? Because obviously £700m in 2050 will be much less money in real terms than £700m is today.
For perspective, 2050 is 37 years into the future. For a meaningful comparison, 37 years into the past is 1976, and £700m today is about £115m in 1976 money – almost exactly twice the current cost of pensions in real terms, not the 13 times McClymont suggests. But that doesn’t make for such a scary headline.
Gregg McClymont, the Shadow Pensions Minister, said as a result John Swinney, the Scottish Finance Secretary, would be faced with having either to raise taxes or cut public spending.
STING! Wait, would he? (Quite aside from the fact that John Swinney will be 86 by 2050, and perhaps no longer in office.) We’re told the cost will be £700m, but we’re not told how much money the government will have to spend in 2050. Presumably for the very good reason that Gregg McClymont doesn’t have the foggiest idea.
An independent Scotland might be swimming in money by 2050. Oil revenues might be higher than expected, we might have established a major renewables industry, and we’ll certainly be saving hundreds of millions of pounds a year on defence.
So there’s no way of knowing whether taxes would need to be raised, because we haven’t a clue whether this £700m is a “black hole” at all. It might simply be a perfectly affordable cost on the Scottish Government’s balance sheet.
Scottish Labour said that the figures which Mr McClymont had obtained had been “verified by external experts” but did not say who they were.
You don’t need our help on this one, right?
The so-called triple lock on state pensions guaranteed by the UK Government in the Coalition Agreement means state pensions increase each year by the highest of three measures, inflation, the increase in earnings, or 2.5%.
STING! “Guaranteed” until 2015. No future government can be bound by the actions of its predecessors. McClymont is presenting an independent Scotland’s future as uncertain, while inexplicably implying that the UK’s future is known. Neither is known.
(Though it does rather sound as if Labour is conceding Holyrood to the SNP and Westminster to the Tories for the next four decades.)
It was introduced in 2010 to insulate pensioners from inflation but while Labour has said it would seek to maintain the UK-wide mechanism if it got into power in 2015, the Tories and Liberal Democrats have offered no guarantee they would want to continue it beyond the next election.
Oh. It seems that UK pensions certainty, in fact, ISN’T “guaranteed” for any more than two years (if that). That was a quick U-turn. And gosh, is there anything in the world more reassuring than opposition parties speaking in weasel words of what they would “seek to” do if they got into power, but not actually promising it?
Mr McClymont said: “Scotland was already facing a pensions timebomb as the number of elderly people rises faster than the rest of the UK.
STING! Let’s throw in another “stat” to muddle the issue. It’s true that the Scottish population is currently ageing slightly more rapidly than the rest of the UK’s. There is, however, no evidence whatsoever to suggest that that will remain the case by 2050.
The population of Scotland recently hit a record high after decades of stagnation, and an independent Scotland’s more immigration-friendly policy could also contribute to a rebalancing or reversal of the trend. We just can’t predict that far ahead.
Now these figures make clear that the SNP have created another black hole in Scotland’s future.”
Except as we’ve just seen, they don’t make any such thing clear, because they’re full of unsourced assertions, highly ambiguous terminology, and completely unsupported assumptions about what’s going to happen decades into the future.
The MP for Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East challenged the SNP Government to set out how state pensions would be paid for should Scots vote for independence next year.
“We know that big corporations will get a tax cut
STING! All corporations will get a tax cut, not just big ones, and even then only if the SNP win the first election to an independent Holyrood. (Though the last Labour government at Westminter cut corporation tax by considerably more than the SNP currently propose to.) Lower corporation tax is not a fundamental fact of independence, it’s a political choice dependent on a democratic mandate via elections.
and that oil companies won’t have to stump up more, which means the money will either have to be found through a tax hike on hard-working families or cuts in spending on vital public services. Which is it?”
As we’ve seen, this is a false choice based on the unsupported assertion that an independent Scotland would have a shortfall to face in the first place. Unless Mr McClymont is classing Trident as “vital public services”, of course.
Mr McClymont stressed being part of the UK meant the burden of the higher costs of pensions in Scotland was shared by taxpayers throughout the whole of the UK.
STING! The implication being that the UK subsidises the disproportionately elderly Scottish population, of course. But we already know that Scotland contributes more to the UK than it gets back, and that Scotland spends less of its GDP on welfare than the UK does. So in fact the UK’s “sharing of resources” to pay pensions works out as a burden to Scotland, not the other way round.
“Scots work hard to put money aside for their retirement. Alex Salmond and John Swinney are wanting all of us to take a gamble on our future and use our pensions as the stake,” he argued.
STING! Again, the proposition is that staying in the United Kingdom doesn’t represent the same gamble, which is plainly false.
Labour consistently present independence as a “gamble”, while ignoring the fact that Scotland gets Conservative governments that it’s voted against 60% of the time. If asking Scots to bet that England will vote the same way Scotland does – when evidence shows that it usually doesn’t – isn’t a gamble, we don’t know what is.
“We all know that in private John Swinney questions whether a separate Scotland can afford even the current state pension
STING! This is simply a lie, a deliberate misrepresentation of reality.
but in public he still refuses to come clean. It’s time the SNP were honest with the people of Scotland.”
STING! John Swinney has at no point questioned the affordability of the basic state pension, either in public or in private. What he did was note that costs were likely to rise and that advance provision (including preventative spending) would have to be made in order to meet the bills, as any remotely competent Finance Secretary would.
A Scottish Government spokeswoman said: “John Swinney recently announced that pensioners in Scotland would benefit from stronger safeguards than their counterparts in the rest of the UK following a vote for independence and the triple lock will be retained to protect those pensioners in receipt of the basic state pension.”
And indeed, there he is, categorically pledging that for so long as the SNP were in control of them, pensions would be secured against inflation – a promise where Labour only have a vague aspiration.
She added: “Further details will be published shortly.”
A spokesman for Mr Swinney said: “The only threat to people’s pensions comes from Westminster. Labour raided the pension funds and destabilised the system and the Tories refuse to commit to the guarantees we can deliver with a Yes vote and independence.”
And the piece duly closes with the obligatory figleaf of balance after the avalanche of misinformation. (If you can have an avalanche of wasps. Forgive our metaphor-mixing, it’s Monday.) But most people will have stopped reading long before then.
Michael Settle’s excuse will doubtless be that he’s just reporting Labour’s claims, not endorsing them. But if we put out a press release claiming Anas Sarwar was a paedophile and refused to identify our sources, it wouldn’t end up on the front page of a national newspaper without undergoing some sort of verification.
We can expect no better from an increasingly desperate Labour Party. But we have every right to demand more of the media. Think of this site as pest control.
Think of this site as as antidote.
OMG BEEEEES!!!!!
Here was me thinking we all aged at the same rate You know one day at a time Now I find out being a Scot I age faster
The terrible trio (Labour / Tory / Lib Dems) do not know their plans for next week, let alone 2050!
Completely agree with Marcia, sites like this one are essential for keeping my blood pressure down. LOL :o)
Nasty piece of work McClymont. I put him in the Willie Bain, Ian Murray, Ian Davidson school of politics. Come to think of it, I could add another few names to that list.
OK Herald, anything you can do…
http://www.bbc.scotlandshire.co.uk/index.php/city-news/467-falkirk-fratricidal-fiddlers-face-furious-foes.html
Top tip:
When you see a Herald headline followed by the words Michael Settle, stop reading.
The Herald is just a reflection of life in Britain today. The editors have totally buggered the paper by moulding the news to conform to their beliefs and sales have bombed so do they change? No its the ordinary hack who gets it in the neck and the paper has noone to check whether the stories from “believable” sources have any relevance to the real world.
Well done the NUJ for standing up to them
Can they tell us how many of us will still be alive in 37 years to claim the pension? They seem to be able to predict, with some confidence, everything else. I’d love to know if I’m going to be around to see us eventually qualify for another world cup. 🙂
As I said on the Herald Forum, this prediction from Labour is just sheer stupidity. No one in their right head makes an economic prediction 37 years into the future. Total madness from Labour.
If you can have an avalanche of wasps
Of course you can. Try shouting* at a mountain of wasps (stand well back). If you are buried, remain calm as it is likely you will be rescued by a St Beenard with a barrel of mead.
*H&S note: do not try shouting at a mountain of wasps.
@Bill C: Nobody? It’s only a fortnight since the OBR released predictions which purported to show the UK’s fiscal balance and public sector net debt out to 2062. The report was lapped up by the papers and spun as bad news for Salmond.
Thanks again Rev. Stu. In one article you have cleared up the pensions issue in my understanding of it at least.
Another article that deserves as wide a coverage as we can manage.
Wasp swarms are dangerous and unpredictable. How many times has BT unleashed a particularly nasty swarm, only for the wind direction to change suddenly and for BT to be badly stung in the process? Those that live by the sting…
@Macart
Never mind about how many of us will be alive they seem to think that John Swinney will still be Finance Secretary in 2050.
Okay. But what I really want to know now is will we HAVE bees in an independent Scotland?
And this is why are pro-indy supporters are castigated as cybernats/Bravehearts/loonies/ insert your own perjorative. We challenge the statements ATL and deconstruct their “arguments”. Let’s face it most journalists aren’t! Luckily having read the BTL comments, the article is getting the short shrift it deserves
In another thread I’ve suggested the Rev uses the extra funds (if enough) raised by the opinion poll campaign to buy some ad space in MSM to direct folk to WOS.
And of course, we should link to this and other pro-indy sites when we are btl.
Poor article which doesn’t make clear if Swinney would have to gradually raise taxes/cut public spending or be faced with the alleged problem only in 2050.
Since Swinney will be 86 in 2050 I have a feeling he might not still be in charge, but who knows? Obviously SLAB doesn’t think IT will be in power
The Man in the Jar
You beat me to it!
Will there still be anything masquerading as the Labour Party in 2050?
Its suckS the way they go on about old people .living to long are you joking i want to live a healthy life at least till im 80 its like wishing they start to die quicker so we save money.MONEY is the root to aLL EVIL .
@TMITJ
Moisturiser, works wonders along with them bacteria laden yoghurts, he might just make it you know. 😀
Still no so confident we’ll qualify for a world cup by that time though.
Ach, the whole premise of the thing is beyond farcical. If anyone could predict the financial stability (or otherwise) of a country that far in advance they’d be the hottest property in world economics. Yet we’re expected to swallow this bullshit from the media on a daily basis and accept it as gospel. They’re making themselves look stupid whilst expecting us to be stupid.
Well unpicked Rev Stu.
I would like to know how the existing UK is ever going to be able to fund the universal state pension and public sector pensions. The only way I can see is to hyper inflate to devalue the GBP denominated national debt whilst removing any link to inflation in pensions, i.e. plunder lifetime savings and shaft the middle aged to elderly.
I personally would rather peg my hopes to an economy with some real assets (the value of all assets fluctuate), tangible exports and a government that seeks to establish a sovereign fund for the benefit of all.
As today seems to be “stings” day, let me remind you of today’s mother of all stings for anyone being on a salary:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23482520
People bringing employment tribunals must now pay a fee for the first time since they were created in the 1960s.
Under the new UK rules, they will have to pay £160 or £250 to lodge a claim, with a further charge of either £230 or £950 if the case goes ahead.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2013/jul/29/protest-employment-tribunal-fees
http://www.newstatesman.com/uk-politics/2013/07/what-todays-introduction-employment-tribunal-fees-really-means
O’course the non-salaried are delighted: http://www.itv.com/news/update/2013-07-29/fsb-welcomes-employer-tribunal-fees/
I just clicked the link from the photo. Brilliant!
Buzz buzz buzz.
I know …o/t but rt have a good interview with F.M
Newsflash – Labour MSP predicts 37 years into the future. The last few Labour supporters in Scotland, are wondering if he can find Johann!
Even the Daily Record in with the same story claimed there would only be a £250 million “black hole”
O/T The RT interview with Alexander Salmond can now be downloaded. Excellent interviewer who allowed the clear answers to be heard. Worth a listen.Link on previous article.
Well if Labour can predict life in an Independent Scotland under the SNP by 2050, then surely they can now reveal their positive vision of Scotland within the Union, and the policies that reflect this, over the course of the next, say, five years?
I found this “bee” in the courier: http://www.thecourier.co.uk/opinion/blogs/steve-bargeton/who-s-afraid-of-the-referendum-1.101402
If Scotland votes for independence next year Edward I, the Hammer of the Scots, will rise from his tomb in Westminster Abbey and devour the first born of every family resident north of the border – if the plague of locusts don’t get them first.
This is one of few scare stories that have not been put about to frighten us not to vote Yes – but there’s plenty of time yet.
@ Famous15 – RT interviewer Sophie Shevardnadze most complimentary on her Twitter page about her visit to the Shetland Isles. Well done to AS on securing quality airtime from RT. Wonder what their viewing figures are?
The one thing the fervent believers of ‘Better Together’ will always be silent about:
If BT is truly so, then the Scots will run UK. We will engineer systems that give us a permanent majority, control the income and expenditure and decide how when and what and where UK dosh is spent on, while you can play cricket to your little hearts desire.
There now, is that better?
By the way, we will rig all systems so that we always come out on top, but if you really want an outrageously expensive Monarchy, it will be on your bill. Just as any wars you cannot resist.
Deal?
This shite signifies to me that BT and their media allies are getting more desperate by the day. Let’s look at the evidence. We have endured an almighty barrage of scaremongering and deception (vote no to get more powers) . Their highlight was the OBR figures. We’re knackered-the oil is running out! Darling’s nonsense about the SNP’s projections being 12 times the accurate amount.
After all of that the latest poll only shows a 9% lead for BT! They must be scratching their heads in amazement. Desperation in leading to stupidity. Darling’s previous comments about the OBR and effectively questioning the oil industry’s integrity, considering they have claimed at least 24 bn barrels yet to be extracted. Now today projecting university pension costs in 2050! They are losing the plot big time.
“The RT interview with Alexander Salmond can now be downloaded.”
LINKS, people. LINKS.
The usual method for pest control would be to employ Rentokill. Not much need for that though with the Labour Party in Scotland as they seem to have the uncanny ability at the moment to spring their own traps, or should we just refer to it as a very slow form of suicide?
Wasps don’t normally swarm …………….the insects portrayed look lie bees to me.
Just saying.
And over to Severin in the Guardian to explain why nobody working in a Scottish University will get a pension if we vote YES…….doomed indeed.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2013/jul/29/scottish-independence-universities-pensions
“The RT interview with Alexander Salmond can now be downloaded.”
LINKS, people. LINKS.
http://rt.com/shows/sophieco/independence-policy-england-scotland-723/
What must be hammered home anytime we are told of a future Scottish pensions bomb is that all current and future pensioners up to 2016 (Independence Day) will have there pensions paid by Westminster. (As they have contributed to the UK pensions blackhole for 35 years or more) After Independence day the SG may pickup the tab on a part of the pension on new pensioners for example I have paid more than 35 years into the UK pension blackhole therefore the rUK will pay my pension, the SG may also top this up to cover any additional amounts paid to Scottish Pensioners over and above that which rUK Pensioners receive.
Additionally the UK govt will have to pay a pro-rata amount towards the pension of anybody that has paid national insurance to Westminster up to independence day or if they can borrow the money they can pay the SG a lump sum in lieu which according to my quick calculation would be approximately Scotlands share of the UK national debt.
I have seen a letter from UK Pensions Dept replying to a letter from a pensioner friend confirming that existing (and I presume new pensioners if they have paid into the rUK pension black hole for the 35 years eligibility period) will have their pensions paid exactly the same as if a UK pensioner is living in Spain or scores of other countries worldwide.
This would mean that the SG could build up a Pensions pot and not pay future pensions out of current taxation like the UK Govt does. If anybody has a “Pensions Blackhole” its the UK
Not a future independent Scotland.
Mr Salmonds interview on RT
http://rt.com/shows/sophieco/independence-policy-england-scotland-723/
Poor article which doesn’t make clear if Swinney would have to gradually raise taxes/cut public spending or be faced with the alleged problem only in 2050.
Since Swinney will be 86 in 2050 I have a feeling he might not still be in charge, but who knows? Obviously SLAB doesn’t think IT will be in power
That’s exactly what I took away from this: why on earth are they asserting Swinney should deal with a problem that they tie to 2050? Are they suggesting Swinney will still be in power by then, following the numpties who could only see a future where Alec Salmond or Nicola Sturgeon could ever lead an independent Scotland? Are they suggesting that Swinney is the only man who could POSSIBLY change things, and he has to do it right now, that the person who succeeds him cannot do it?
Really, with all the accusations of the SNP being dictators, it ends up just making them look powerful and competent. They keep talking about King Alex, but politicians making themselves look like victims hardly speaks well of their supposed abilities. I think people would prefer benevolent “dictators” who have made measurable improvements to the country over waffling dunderheads extolling the virtues of servility to a government which seems out to destroy the most vulnerable people in their society.
If Scotland votes for independence next year Edward I, the Hammer of the Scots, will rise from his tomb in Westminster Abbey and devour the first born of every family resident north of the border – if the plague of locusts don’t get them first.
BASTARD STOLE MY IDEA!
forgot to say that Labour cant even get there scare stories correct , the cost of basic pensions
in Scotland is 5.3bn not 53 million! Mind you should we be surprised that anybody in a party
which produced Brown/Darling cant add up?
“isn’t a gamble, we don’t know what it”
it=is?
What’s the betting that come 2050 Johann Lamont will still have been unavailable for comment? Or for that matter, that either Ruth Davidson or Willie Rennie will have managed to acually have spoken a word of political sense?
I saw the headline in the Herald and stopped reading. Some thought that the herald was getting a bit better. Sorry apart from Ian Bell and occasionally Mcwhirter it is just another propagandist rag that seeks to mislead, distort and tell lies.
Roll on the vote next year when we can finally get rid of Gardham, Settle and the rest of unionist carpetbaggers and spivs who seek to distort and subvert.
“…and that oil companies won’t have to stump up more, which means the money will either have to be found through a tax hike on hard-working families …”
I see he has fallen into the trap of using the “hard-working” families gambit.
It occurs to me that people living in families who just work normally or even pretty lazily should be OK then, because they won’t pay any more. As I am single and as such not part of a “family” unit, even if I work hard, I’ll be OK.
So the lesson does seem to be, doesn’t it, either stay single or be a lazy bugger and you’ll be OK.
Seriously though. brilliant article Stu.
Most unionist arguments can be torn apart like this (a simple…”and how will it be in the UK?” suffices), but it’s a joy to read when presented by an writer with a flair for words and a quick wit.
Do you know, it’s absolutely beyond me why Labour members in Scotland continue to support the party. Gregg McClymont is an MP who will be made redundant if Scotland becomes independent, as we won’t be needing MPs any more. Therefore, he has a clear personal vested interest in telling any lies necessary to preserve the Union and therefore his job.
However, Labour in Scotland is only polling around 30% and 25% for Holyrood, which means fewer jobs for Labour up here, based on current polling. If there is a NO vote next year, though, and subsequently people realise that Labour has lied to them, then their vote will fall even further. And, based on voting intentions for Westminster, it looks as though many Scots will vote for the SNP rather than Labour.
Labour might win the referendum through scaremongering and lying, but in so doing, they’ll lose Scotland one way or another as people realise the extent of their betrayal. The term, “Pyrrhic Victory” comes to mind.
Therd are only 5312 Labour members in Scotland Jeannie, and they are all councillors or above. If you are a member of the party, and don’t hold office, then you must be a spouse.
There are no ‘ordinary’ members who joined because they are a socialist.
I may have made that up.
@ Tris
You are apparently a ‘glass half full’ type? However, some may see this an an indication that there will be no place in in the Union for the lazy, feckless and those not fit enough to work.
Wasn’t their once a political philosophy that was quite popular on the continent, and amongst some of our Establishment, which also had no time for such anti-social types? Put them through quite a tough regime if I remember correctly, and effectively reduced the significance of humans to balance sheet entries. One of the key tenants of current neo-conservative philosophy, is the submission of the rights of the individual to the superior authority and entitlement of the state.
If I was a resident of the rUK, I’d move to Scotland simply for the protection of a up-to-date written constitution, which has been ratified by the public.
The RT interview with Alex Salmon is a revelation and with clarity shows in comparison, just how ignorant and nasty the BBC and its interviewers have become.
i did like Alex Salmon’s response to the question on media reporting
An excellent interview by Russian Television aka RT with Alexander Salmond. Well worth the watching.
As is the delectable Sophie Shevardnadze. Is that a Christian Crucifix she is wearing?
The world is watching this referendum. I have no doubt at all.
Sophie is the grand-daughter of Eduard Shevardnadze. I checked that out.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sophie_Shevardnadze
Hail Alba
Robert Kerr says:
29 July, 2013 at 6:00 pm
An excellent interview by Russian Television aka RT with Alexander Salmond. Well worth the watching.
Just watched this interview… very relaxed and civilised with Alex Salmond given the respect due with time to actually answer questions without being interrupted! Compare and contrast with the usual biased rubbish we have to put up with from the BBC!
It is on now on RT SKY channel
Enjoy
I particularly liked Alec’s use of millions rather than billions. People, in general, can IMHO visualise 1,000 million or 1,000,000 million easier than 1 billion or 1trillion. Unless of course……
O/T Serco: the company that runs Britain
Good article on guardian website.
This wee gem from the Serco runs Britain story.
quote from:-Margaret Hodge Former Labour minister, chair of the public accounts committee
Does she feel any guilt about the fact that companies such as Serco made their decisive breakthrough into public services when Labour was in power? There’s a murmur of agreement. “I think we were as bad at managing this diversity of providers,” she says. “But one of the things that gets me with this government is that they should have learned from our mistakes.
Well, for all the bluster in the papers from the wee Labour no-mark this morning, this story just disappeared off the BBC news like shite off a shovel by the evening – funny that?
Ah, actually wasps do swarm, but only if there’s food on the go, so one of them finds a nice banana and the rest follow, I read up on it due to having nests in my allotment shed.
The scare stories by the No lot are getting more ridiculous by the day. Well, we will see what they conjure up next, what can they blame on the future now. The mind boggles.
Are we scared? Are we strong? Who is like us? Get yer kilts up and do it! Freedom.
The fanny ‘scottish’ labour party were saying it was a 250 million black hole, now that has nearly trebled in a week…..fact is that since alistair darling reckons Scottish waters have enough oil to last until 2017, we can be assured that this is a load of shite from labour and by christ they will be caught out for this bollocks over the next year.
Mr McClymont stressed being part of the UK meant the burden of the higher costs of pensions in Scotland was shared by taxpayers throughout the whole of the UK.
Except that it doesn’t
http://www.scotsman.com/news/education/scottish-independence-10bn-university-shortfall-1-3020637