We’re still waiting for the full data tables for the ICM/Scotland on Sunday poll that got everyone a little excited at the weekend, and whose findings closely mirrored the Panelbase/Wings Over Scotland one two weeks ago that the same publisher crudely smeared and cast aspersions (which it later retracted) on the credibility of.
In the meantime, even though we’re still technically on holiday, we had a bit of a rummage through the company’s preceding one for the Scotsman papers this morning and picked out some random interesting snippets. We’ll be watching keenly to see if the latest poll has corresponding stats to compare.
– the Labour Yes vote was at a record high: 30%, or 34% excluding Don’t Knows).
– 79% of people who said they were voting Yes or No said they’d definitely made up their mind. Nearly a fifth thought they might change it. (Most likely to change were women, part-time workers and the unemployed.)
– people’s opinion on whether independence would be good or bad for the economy was almost a dead heat, with 38% saying good and 43% saying bad, which we think is the closest ever. (Hardly anyone was on the fence, with just 6% saying it would make no difference.)
– there’s been a dramatic shift in how people think independence will affect inequality. More than twice as many people (36%) thought independence will REDUCE inequality as think it will INCREASE it (16%).
– only 25% of Scots believed the No campaign’s scare stories about pensions, with more than twice as many (51%) expecting pensions to either increase or stay the same in an independent Scotland.
– more than two thirds of Scots (68%) want Holyrood to be given control of most taxation and welfare in the event of a No vote, but only 39% expect it to happen.
(Fewer than half of Labour, Lib Dem or SNP voters expected Holyrood to get new powers in the event of a No vote. Only Conservative voters believe it.)
– a fifth of people who said last month they’d vote No would definitely change their mind (10%) or consider changing their mind (10%) if they were convinced that no major new powers would come to Holyrood after a No vote.
Even if only those saying they would definitely switch actually did so, it would be enough to put Yes in front.
– those numbers were even higher among the crucial Labour demographic, with 14% saying they’d definitely switch if there were no new powers, and 12% who would think about it.
As Labour’s “Devo Nano” proposals continue to crumble under scrutiny (which is, some cynics might suggest, precisely why the Scottish media is so reluctant to scrutinise them), the Achilles heel of the No campaign seems to be clearly exposed, waiting for Yes Scotland to throw a spear into it.
If the people of Scotland can be shown that the Unionist parties’ promises of greater devolution are the hollow sham they are, the referendum is there for the winning.
EDIT 14.00: Embarrassingly, our first draft of this article didn’t notice the date on the tables and thought they WERE from the latest poll. Our excuse is that we’re on holiday and therefore not operating to our normal unforgiving standards of editorial diligence. Also, shut up.