The problem with polls
As commissioners of opinion polls ourselves, we know all too well that one of the more unwelcome aspects of the pursuit is that sometimes you don’t like the answers you get – we were noticeably dismayed, for example, by one or two of the things revealed about social attitudes in our last poll.
Today’s media extensively covers a Survation poll for the Daily Record which finds the highest Yes vote in some time (despite an “if the referendum was today” preamble, which generally works against Yes), equating to 45% Yes 55% No, with almost a quarter of Labour voters now planning to vote for independence.
The full tables aren’t yet available for analysis as we write this, so to while away the time we decided to have a proper delve in the last one from the same company, run on behalf of the Daily Mail last month. And a couple of things leapt right out at us.
We don’t think many people would dispute that the two of the three main planks of the No campaign to date have been EU membership and currency – Gerry Hassan comes to that conclusion in a very worthwhile article on his blog today. (The third plank, of course, being the perennial “too wee, too poor, too stupid” line about the economy that’s been much in evidence this week.)
So it must have dismayed both the Daily Mail and “Better Together” considerably to note how little the two issues were working in their favour.
———————————————————————————————————
The Scottish Government has proposed a “currency union” between an independent Scotland and the rest of the UK, where the two countries would share the British pound and have joint control over monetary policy like the setting of interest rates.
UK Chancellor George Osborne, Shadow Chancellor Ed Balls and Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander have ruled out sharing the British pound in a “currency union” with an independent Scotland.
To what extent, if at all, has this affected how you are likely to vote in the referendum?
Much more/slightly more likely to vote Yes: 29%
Much more/slightly more likely to vote No: 22%
No change: 49%———————————————————————————————————
Well, that was a whole heap of wasted effort and blanket media hysteria. The poll also found that while 37% of voters believed the threat, the same percentage thought it was a bluff, divided predictably down party lines – something which was also true of respondents’ views on whether Scotland should refuse to take on any UK debt if a currency union were to be refused, on which opinion was again almost evenly split.
After that things got a little more interesting.
———————————————————————————————————
Regardless of how you intend to vote in the referendum, which of these would be your preferred option for the currency of an independent Scotland?
Currency union: 48%
“Sterlingisation”: 10%
Separate currency, pegged to Sterling: 12%
Separate currency, free-floating: 11%
The Euro: 7%———————————————————————————————————
That fewer than half of Scots wanted a currency union was rather surprising, as was that fact that only 58% wanted to keep the pound at all. But more unexpected to our eyes was the fact that there was very little difference across parties – just 11 points separated the voters MOST keen on a currency union (Lib Dems, 55%) from those who were LEAST supportive (Labour, 44%), with the SNP and the Tories in between the two extremes, at 49% and 50% respectively.
If the No campaign was expecting currency to become a stark and decisive dividing line between Yes and No supporters, it looks like it was very much barking up the wrong tree. 47% of respondents thought an independent Scotland WOULD end up using the pound (one way or another), just a few points lower than the number who WANTED that to happen. It seems Scots are pretty relaxed about the issue.
The Mail then moved onto its twin political obsessions – immigration and the EU. It found that 63% of Scots would want an independent Scotland to hold a referendum on EU membership (because we’re sure what everyone would really love after three solid years of independence referendum debate would be to leap straight in and start all over again), but also that in a UK-wide vote on the issue, Scots would vote to remain in the EU by a clear margin of 49-36.
(We’re not sure why the Mail didn’t ask how they would vote in a Scotland-only EU referendum, since that was the one that was proposed in the previous question, but presumably the answer would be much the same.)
But then came something fun.
———————————————————————————————————
European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso this week said that membership of the European Union for an independent Scotland would be “extremely difficult, if not impossible”, because Scotland’s new membership would have to be approved by all other EU countries.
To what extent, if at all, does this affect how you are likely to vote in the referendum?
Much more/slightly more likely to vote Yes: 21%
Much more/slightly more likely to vote No: 21%
No change: 59%———————————————————————————————————
We couldn’t hold back a chuckle at that one. After pages and pages of overblown coverage of Barroso’s intervention – subsequently rubbished by a whole string of European politicians and experts – in the press, the net result was zero: the comments moved just as many people towards Yes as they did towards No.
With a clear margin of Scots favouring EU membership, the suggestion of it being fraught with difficulties and delays ought to have damaged the Yes camp. But either Scots didn’t believe it, or they didn’t much like being pushed around by some jumped-up Eurocrat telling them how to run their affairs, or they were among the 36% who rather liked the idea of anything that pushed Scotland out of Europe.
So it should delight independence campaigners if “Better Together” spends the next six months banging on endlessly about currency and EU membership. Because the reality is that all the vast resources Blair McDougall and his team are devoting to whipping up feelings on those two issues are at best having no effect at all, and at worst are actively driving their own support away.
As we touched on at the start of this piece, we might not necessarily like the reasons for that – the Mail’s poll also found a hefty majority of Scots with hostile views on immigration, which is the main driving force of opposition to EU membership. But dealing with them can wait for another day. Right now, what matters is that Project Fear’s scare tactics are blowing up in its face.
I think Yes is ahead in the polls. I published research on my analysis of the data last year, when Labour voters were 16% likely to vote yes, while SNP voters were 44% likely to vote no. Based on this new data, I actually think YES is a country mile ahead.
Did the Mail ask any question about The Media bias at all?
I pray thats in the next Poll. Would love to see Jackie Birds face as she does a Ron Burgundy Vacant Auto-Cue reading
” ‘The BBC say NO. F*ck you Scotland’ are the findings to latest WingsOverScotland Poll…John Curtice…what does this tell us about the SNP cybernats?”
all well and good but what issues can YES concentrate on to stimulate the 5%ish swing that is required?
Looking at your graphic with views expressed on issues such as “Conscientious Objectors not ("Tractor" - Ed)s”, “Remove marriage bar on female teachers” and “no compulsory sterilization’ (“no compulsory sterlingization”, shurely?) are you certain this aren’t the latest Daily Mail poll results?
Eight out of ten Cybernats prefer independence.
Very kind of the better together Daily Mail to conduct this research proving how solid the ‘Yes’ vote is in the face of constant negative coverage.
We’re not sure why the Mail didn’t ask how they would vote in a Scotland-only EU referendum, since that was the one that was proposed in the previous question, but presumably the answer would be much the same.
I wish they would ask that. My main reason for wanting to stay in the EU is protection from the worst right wing excesses of Westminster. If we’re independent, I’d be far more ambivalent, and could probably be easily swayed to EFTA.
The comments from Barosso, and the unwillingness of the EU to counter or give a straight answer is pushing me far more in that direction as well. On both the currency and EU scaremongering, that’s the only effect on me – both are making me favour a more radical form of independence.
– these aren’t…shucks…
‘On both the currency and EU scaremongering, that’s the only effect on me – both are making me favour a more radical form of independence.’
Me too Cath.
Ten out of ten Cybernats prefer independence!
Project fear’s funded by the stinking rich, the tories, the current owners of teamGB etc, so rich upper class toffs like Osborne, Darling, Gordon BBC etc cant frighten the people of Scotland. Who knew.
O/T but I think these liggers have been watching the Reverend Stuart Campbell http://www.scotlandnow.dailyrecord.co.uk/
Do you think the latest GERS figures will make you more likely to vote Yes or No?
%More likely to vote Yes = %More likely to vote No
😉
Like I’ve said on here a few times, I’ve not seen any major impact of the ‘nuclear currency business dambusters assault’, never mind the EU crap. If anything, Yes has marginally gained from both. Aye, BT big gun barrels now largely empty yet Yes continues its steady upwards climb while no falls.
Then there’s the ‘Honeymoon’ of the SNP which has been going on for 7 years now. 7 years of carpet bombing by the unionist MSM and still AS, NS and co are enjoying sunshine on the beach with a cocktail in terms of satisfaction/support.
BT don’t get it. They don’t get any of it. Scotland is a total mystery to them. But how could ‘British’ Tories – irrespective of tie colour – possibly get it?
—
In politics, it is crucial to understand that a party / cause can only bring itself down. The opposition can’t do that, only the party / cause itself.
Right now, the union is bringing itself down as it tries to nail the opposition. It’s being doing this for years, decades… If Yes continue on a steady course at full steam ahead, Scotland will vote Aye in September and that’ll be ane end ane auld sang.
@ Cath
I believe very much that we will still need protection from England once we’re independent, as the present leaders will do all in their power to ruin us, as they did before the Union; therefore, membership of the EU would be advisable for us, if we can secure advantageous terms.
CalcacusMacAndrews 2.54, why only 8 out of 10 Cybernats, are
the ither 2 suffering Obestity an canny get oota bed,fae eatin
awe they Crisps n drinkin IrnBru,ave goat a Mobile Crane licence
who ur they, they shall go to the polling station,& the Indy Ball
Smilely,s.
I share the anger over Barosso and the EU failure to commit to including an iScotland subject to negotiations. I consider there intervention, or lack of it, anti democratic. An additional consideration is the question of joining, or not joining NATO. With Barosso at the helm and no shared currency (therefore no shared assets so no boats, weapons and planes) we wouldn’t be able to join. EFTA seems ok to me too
Even today’s good poll in the Record shows women are still not backing indy in as big numbers as men. Women for Indy are trying to raise funds to address that issue. Can you think about supporting them with a small donation?
http://www.indiegogo.com/projects/women-for-independence-our-voices-fundraiser
I don’t know much about the technicalities of what polls can and can’t find out. Is it possible/probable that one reason our side is not apparently dented by the junk that the unionists put out actually that we have significant undeclared/latent type support that doesn’t fully register in polls ?
O/T
BBC covering NHS 1% pay rise and the fact that Scot Gov giving a more generous settlement than rUK, with the Unions all pointing this out.
Reevel from BBC Scotland threw in that this was despite Scotlands defecit. Expect the state broadcaster to attack along the lines of Scotlands larger defecit. This could result in a lot more bad feeling towards us from darn sarf.
It’s NOT the economy stupid!
Not got a clue on polls and went ferreting here
http://bellacaledonia.org.uk/2014/03/10/dismantling-the-british-state/
Fair’ish and some good positive ideas from Tariq Ali
Something which hasn’t featured much in the debate so far has been nuclear stuff, in its various forms. Just been looking online for some recent poll data. Nothing.
Questions just don’t get asked. Info on that, and how it might effect September would be interesting.
BT obviously want to keep Trident and associated WMDs in Scotland. Vote No and they definitely will stay and probably be replaced by a next generation.
Given that it looks fairly certain that an independent Scotland will be nuclear free (no WMDs, no new nuclear power stations built), and that is what most Scots want, it could be a vote swinger to Yes when it gets more openly discussed.
It’s NOT the currency stupid! or It’s NOT the EU either stupid!
great analysis on polls
I would imagine a smiling Alistair Darling, Danny Alexander and George Osborne laughing at the travails that they say ills Scotland is probably the most powerful graphic the Yes Campaign have.
Alistair Darling laughing his head off at the GERS report.
George Osborne smirking about currency union.
Danny Alexander sneeringly smiling about the EU.
Things that Scots are not that all concerned about but certainly would take great umbrage that others take cheer out of.
Michael says:
Even today’s good poll in the Record shows women are still not backing indy in as big numbers as men. Women for Indy are trying to raise funds to address that issue. Can you think about supporting them with a small donation?
Yes, any polls I’ve looked into in detail show men at 50-55% yes, women at 35-40% yes. Women need to be targetted. Just donated.
Any chance of a graphic or cartoon featuring Darling, Osborne and Alexander cheerfully back slapping each other as they hold the GERS report, sermon of the pound speech and a copy of the Scotsman with the headline “Barroso says NO”.
That would be a powerful message to emphasise Better Together’s campaign message that Scotland is ‘too poor, too stupid and too wee’.
Off topic, the BBC (reasonably) tries to find balance in a new article about public meetings, but (unsurprisingly) fails:
“The pro-Union Better Together also holds public meetings.
“While the next one organised by Better Together is advertised on its campaign website for next month, in just one week in March, Yes Scotland had organised meetings in Maidens in Ayrshire, Glenrothes, Helensburgh, Caithness and Rothesay.”
For pictures, the best they can come up with for the No campaign is Gordon Brown’s recent outing and a stock image of a leaflet being put through a letter box.
O/T Favour request, is there any chance someone could post Ivan McKee/Iain Gray discussion on Scotland Tonight on you tube.
Here’s the link until it disappears starts around 10 minutes 20 seconds in.
http://player.stv.tv/programmes/scotland-tonight/
@Gillie
Great idea…could work as a nice 3 Wise Monkeys rip-off with appropriate placement of the articles!
Then again, Alexander as a Ginger Monkey…a Gunky? ( im not having him as an Orang-Utan…theyre too intelligent!)
You should see Danny Alexander squirm as he tries to defend not giving health workers in England a recommended 1% rise in wages.
Alex Neil, Scottish Health minister has announced Scottish NHS workers are to be given the rise in full, with extra sums for low wage workers, and an increase in pension contributions.
Westminster takes, Holyrood gives.
“””So it should delight independence campaigners if “Better Together” spends the next six months banging on endlessly about currency and EU membership. Because the reality is that all the vast resources Blair McDougall and his team are devoting to whipping up feelings on those two issues are at best having no effect at all, and at worst are actively driving their own support away.”””
CORRECT – glad to hear someone else clocking on, I expect the BritNats will just keep popping away at it because they haven’t got a leg to stand on.
It would make a lot of sense if we were to concentrate resources on converting the Lassies.
Heedtracker, Spotted one thing in Scotland Now, Dons supporter travels 6k miles to Cup Final, I thought I recognise that face, Yup Ive known him since he was a loon, started working for same company as me when he was about sixteen, he was a red hot (No pun intended) Rangers supporter then.. So Im glad he now supports the Dandies, all that ribbing I gave him must have worked… Anyway thanks for the link, I’ll try and catch up with him on Sunday…
In my experience lassies like wine,shopping,going oot and gabbing wi their pals.
Couldn’t the SNP pledge to cut tax on wine,cut retail and entertainment business rates to improve the city centres and cut tax on mobile phones?They might be vote winners.
N.H.S.,England will increase Prescription Charge,s by 20p
keep digging Westminster, the hole gets deeper then the sides
collapses,& buries the lot of you’s.
The recent issues regarding comments made about the English NHS by its departing chief and Danny trying to justify crapping on the nurses again highlights some of the key differences between the directions our two countries are taking. Clearly if we adopted that model we would not be Better Together, despite what the Labour Shadow Health Minister thinks.
It would be interesting to know which social stratifications* the pollsters get their answers from. Do pollsters release this data? Anyone know? Maybe scottish_skier?
Questions on the EU and even currency union may not be of real relevance to someone who is struggling to get by in Dennistoun or Wester Hailes, for example. There, it could well be a situation of just trying to live day by day on very little money, even *if* employed or not.
Meanwhile, in Bearsden or Morningside and living very comfortably, the EU and currency union issues may well be of significance to the residents there.
Also, if anyone should be inclined to register to express opinions in polls, presumably it would be those from outside the lower social stratas. Therefore, the results could be skewed more towards a negative viewpoint regarding Scottish independence if being relatively well-off equates to the status quo. I stand to be corrected here. Again, perhaps someone can provide definite information…?
I’d like to say that I’m not questioning anyone’s intelligence, views or ‘values’ by their social ‘standing’ – not at all. I just find some of those polls questionable in their methods and results.
* http://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_stratification
Dal Riata
In many instances the pollsters do show number of respondents by social strata although not always. It dependes on what the poll is looking at.
If they were trying identify support by party they may be very interested in teasing out that sort of detail
M4rkyboy!!!
THIS lassie wants her kids to grow up in a country that isn’t at war, where they won’t be conscripted into Cameron’s “National Service”, where they won’t live in the shadow of Nuclear Bombs and where they will be expected to contribute to help those who need a hand-up.
Mostly I want a future that doesn’t involve my kids having to leave their country to get a decent job like their Mum had to do in the 80’s.
How can I help you spread the word?
Project Fear released another poll today that proves without doubt that “six out of seven dwarfs are not happy”.
@M4rkyboy
Really, you should get out more.This might be the most patronizing comment I’ve seen on Wings 🙁 I really hope you were kidding.
@Ronnie anderson says:
CalcacusMacAndrews 2.54, why only 8 out of 10 Cybernats, are the ither 2 suffering Obestity an canny get oota bed,fae eatin awe they Crisps n drinkin IrnBru,ave goat a Mobile Crane licence
who ur they, they shall go to the polling station,& the Indy Ball
You are right. The other two are FAT CATS that prefer …
A third want independence.A third want Devomax.A third want status quo.Devomax isn’t on offer.Nor is the status quo,really.What will devo maxers vote for? Can YES give them the confidence to make the slightly bigger step to vote for independence? Or will NO be able to terrify them into accepting something worse than the status quo,but sweetened with some trivial new powers?I think devo maxers are quite fluid,but the general direction is slowly towards YES.They want more than NO can even offer,never mind deliver.And they won’t be terrorised about concerns they don’t really have.I hope NO try their hand at love bombing again before too much longer.Cos that was really funny.
O/T For those at times who struggle to wade through all the facts and figures like me.
“A Nation Again” – Luath press Ltd / A must read honestly
(£7.99 paperback)
Just finished this book and would def’ recommend for those wishing to get to grips with oddities of Scotlands predicament.
Excellent analysis throughout with punchy short chapters by Paul Henderson Scott, Harry Reid, Stephen Maxwell, Tom Nairn, Prof Neil Kay & Betty Davies.
Brilliant breakdown on the Economy –
Chapter 3 Stephen Maxwell
Why Federalism wont work –
Chapter 4 Tom Nairn
Black Crude Reality (The Notion of the Resource Curse)-
Chapter 5 Professor Neil Kay
(After reading this chapter I finally understand how easily oil as a resource commodity can be used against any nations aspirations).
Such an easy read and like info provided by the Rev, very well explained and hard to argue away, via soundbite assertions such as those by BT.
Try it.
Apologies Stu / but if it can help someone else ?
Tongue in cheek guys.Although the part about entertainment and retail rates was partly serious.
@M4rkyboy
First comment – agree
Second – seriously ?
@M4rkyboy
Will be surprised if YES haven’t cottoned on to this as it appears Women hold the key to the result.
As such its the YES supporting women themselves that can make the difference in terms of targetted persuasion
The results of the Evening Express poll:
http://www.yourviewk.com/media/1041/ee-your-verdict.pdf
Dont know if this has already been covered – from National Collective & Yes websites.
“Whilst the No campaign have spent the day talking Scotland down, Glasgow schools voted 64% Yes, 21% Undecided, 15% No. Well done Michael Gray and Chris Glendinning.”
Magic well done kids in Glasgow !
Does this not back up what was discussed here a few weeks ago about differential turnout? http://wingsoverscotland.com/the-differential-slip/
The unionists will keep banging on about currency & the EU for the same reasons:
Potential Yes voters will become apathetic; potential No voters will be energised by their hatred of the EU/fear of change/whatever; more important issues are suppressed.
We can’t allow them to frame the debate around these issues.
Elaine Colliar says:
THIS lassie wants her kids to grow up in a country that isn’t at war, where they won’t be conscripted into Cameron’s “National Service”, where they won’t live in the shadow of Nuclear Bombs
Above, I was suggesting getting rid of the nukes could be a Yes winner. [It appears untested in polls.] Separately, I was highlighting that women seem to be more anti-independence.
Sounds like you are saying removing WMDs, not striding the world stage with a big stick and keeping out of wars could attract women to independence ….. sounds like a great Yes campaign tactic aimed at all Scots, but women perhaps in particular.
Women for indy just made a donation, lets fill this bucket and let them them do their thing for SCOTLAND. Were all in this the GITHER.
Please help if you can, it’ll make ye feel better it makes me feel better.
Here in the badlands of Fife we are getting better than the polls in our canvas results. Which seems great till you realise that we are talking to the poor who are already showing up as more Yes than the rest.
It means that Yes campaign in Fife and those in similar poor parts of Scotland need to produce much higher than the polls to counteract the No vote from places like Bearsden, Ayr and Morningside.
@Calgacus Loved the cat video!
Re polls, there was a poll commissioned by Tom Hunter in early Feb which showed that the EU and currency issues were way down at the bottom of the list of priorities
“When asked which of a prompted list of seventeen issues was most important in deciding how you might vote, the economy and job prospects were tied equally with 15% indicating these issues were most important, followed by healthcare (11%), pensions/benefits (8%), education (8%) and then personal finances (6%). Immigration (4%) ranked higher than EU membership and currency.”
Heres the link http://scotlandseptember18.com/hunter-announces-second-phase-poll-results-independence/
Puzzled that women don’t seem to be as keen on independence as men I asked my YES voting wife what she thought the problem was. Two points she said: 1. Among her lady friends Alex and Nicola are the problem, especially Alex. He’s too smug, full of himself etc. etc. Nicola too nippy. Her ‘debate’ with Lamont did not help matters. 2. Still too many women think that a YES vote is a vote for the SNP. Too many think that they will have an SNP Government for ever and a day if they vote YES.
If there is one message that the YES Campaign must get out, it is that a YES vote is for Scotland not for the SNP and certainly not for Alex and Nicola; also that a Scottish General Election will take place in 2016 and we can vote in whoever we like.
I should add I have been a member of the SNP for over 40 years and I am a big fan of both Nicola and Alex. In fact I have been saying for years that Alex is the finest politician in these isles. But then again, I am only a man what do I know?
@Bill C
“only a man”
Is this the Scottish cringe we’ve been hearing about? Is it men = “2P2W2S?
I’ve not had time to look through the whole thread, but discussion ‘in another place’ concerns this afternoon’s Evening Standard poll. That and several others over the past couple of weeks indicate that the presumed Labour victory at the next Westminster GE is now far from a foregone conclusion. If we could just have the gap between Labour and Tories narrowing sufficiently between now and September 18, that might encourage enough Labour supporters in Scotland to go with the Yes camp….
Here’s hoping…..
“I have been saying for years that Alex is the finest politician in these isles.”
I concur Bill C and it is strange when you see how stable a govt FM has delivered.
Maybe requires a different tack or better PR .
Whats the alternative – the Union for the sake of personality ?? FFS undecided Ladies come on think about it.
Based on Survation data. I get the following results.
41.49Y
46.06N
12.37U
Once again, I ask that someone on here check my results for comparison.
@ Bill C
I agree with you, but I would go further. It might be a good idea for Alex and Nicola to say something along these lines to the people of Scotland: If you ever want a real Labour government (as opposed to what’s on offer from Milliband & co.) to rule in Scotland again then vote Yes!
This referendum has to be about Scotland – and Alex needs to challenge media presentation on who it’s about.
I am big, fit and strong. I will endeavour to carry obese people to the polls and back if required if they wish to vote Yes.
Re the women thing. Just made a donation and I think Rev. Stu should get behind them.
There are people already onside who should be leading this, I’m referring to Elaine C Smith and Eddi Reader. They’re both excellent at connecting at the emotional level whereas Alex and Nicola use a fact based approach which appeals more to men (I should explain that I worked in Sales for many years and you quickly learn that men and women respond to different cues).
“The results of the Evening Express poll:”
Brilliant, cheers. Post at 8pm.
C’mon folks! Apply a wee bit common sense to these currency/EU/NATO/UN/Council of Europe matters. It’s not needed to be an Einstein. Every one of those organisations is dedicated to at least three basic things they all have in common. They are expansionist, rely upon the World’s opinion of their credibility and their memberships are united in common cause. Now consider the real legal position of the state named, “United Kingdom”. It resulted from a Treaty of Union between only two kingdoms. Not states, not countries but, as its title describes them, Kingdoms. Thus they must be made aware there are only two equally sovereign partner Kingdoms in that United Kingdom and upon that United Kingdom disuniting they are both continuity members of their particular organisation or both out upon their ears. From that point on the organisation either does the right thing and tells each kingdom they are treated equally or they lose one as a member state and lose all credibility from their own member states and in the eyes of the World.
“””So it should delight independence campaigners if “Better Together” spends the next six months banging on endlessly about currency and EU membership. Because the reality is that all the vast resources Blair McDougall and his team are devoting to whipping up feelings on those two issues are at best having no effect at all, and at worst are actively driving their own support away.”””
But that’s the very thing, isn’t it – these are the only issues BT (read: Westminster) have ANY purchase on.
They CANNOT say Scotland would be better defended after the Russian flotilla fiasco. They CANNOT say Scotland’s welfare would suffer given Westminster’s dismantling. They CANNOT defend Trident after the leaks and crashes and insane costs. Health, education, jobs – they have no power against the Yes campaign, because the Yes campaign has control: of the facts, of the alternatives, of the possibilities. And crucially, in the event of independence, the Yes campaign will have complete control.
The only reason the EU is an issue is because Westminster CAN, technically, have power of veto over Scotland’s entry. They’d never use it, it would be catastrophic to them, but the mere fact that they CAN do it is enough. Same with a currency union: they technically CAN refuse a currency union, regardless of whether they should. Arguably the only other thing is border controls – the rUK putting up a massive barrier will hinder movement between the two nations, but that’s because it’d be the rUK putting up the barrier, not Scotland.
This is all they have, because these are the only tools Westminster could have when Scotland goes independent. After independence, Westminster has ZERO power over Scotland’s taxes, broadcasting, defense, budget, all that. Scotland has the power and resources to do all those things without Westminster doing a thing. But Scotland, as an independent nation, has to work with Westminster on the EU just like every other EU nation, and on the currency union just like every other country with a currency union.
Look at it this way: Westminster is going to have to deal with an independent Scotland’s place in the EU and a currency union in the event of a Yes vote. Doesn’t the fact that these two issues are making such air suggest that they are laying the groundwork for that eventuality?
I think unfortunately women have bought into the anti-Salmond spin more than men. I’m concerned by some comments from a few WFI members on this which could give the impression that leaders need to change, or that we somehow need to hide them in a bunker like Lamont.
If WFI are going to do anything then it should be to encourage more women to think beyond the headlines and the spin and realise those who Iive and work in Scotland would not be in the position of voting in a referendum in September, and having a real say in the future of their country, had it not been for AS and the Scottish government.
I’m personally detecting a bit of softening from some of the hard NOs.
Apart from that, it’s great to have a numerate Rev, and I like too very much that links are given to hard data so that the wary – and that is probably 66% plus 9.3% don’t knows of the voting public – can check any derived figures out themselves.
A little suggestion at the risk of getting one of Rev’s usual polite answers is that for an article such as this, a “boxed” or bolded link be put up such as:
“The opinion poll itself and raw data can be found here”.
Why do NO people when asked “why are you voting no” I have never been given an answer other than “I don’t like that Alex Salmond” why? No answer!
When I explain you are not voting for anybody but yourself. You are not voting for or against Alex Salmond, you are voting to say yes or no to an independent Scotland. O I don’t know, must go.
What the hell does that all mean? This is from 7or 8 people known to me. Strange how it’s the same unconvincing script, and sheepish retreat.
If these people don’t vote that would be wonderful, they are definite soft no voters so here’s hoping.
@Papadox
It’s just an excuse.
@dadsarmy
Typically the polling companies do not put up the raw data tables until some time after the headline figures are released.
The good reverend cannot put up links to resources that are not available.