The devil you know
The Panelbase poll from October that we referred to in this morning’s post deserves a little more analysis. There are two key sets of figures in it, relating to two alternative scenarios of how the UK political situation might look come autumn 2014, with a Westminster general election only a few months away.
IF LABOUR LOOK LIKE WINNING THE ELECTION
Yes: 37%
No: 45%
Don’t know: 18%
IF THE TORIES LOOK LIKE WINNING THE ELECTION
Yes: 52%
No: 40%
Don’t know: 8%
The survey also noted Holyrood voting intentions, with the constituency and regional polls averaging out at 45% SNP, 30% Labour, 12% Tory, 8% Lib Dem, 4.5% Green, 0.5% others. These numbers lead us to some interesting conclusions.
We’ve previously learned that somewhere between 25% and 35% of SNP supporters in fact don’t back independence. Let’s take the middle of that range and say it’s 30%. That means that of the 37% Yes vote, 31.5% (70% of 45%) is accounted for by SNP supporters, with most of the rest likely to come from the pro-independence Greens and others (mainly the socialist parties). Let’s also assume that there are no Tory voters who’ll switch from No to Yes in the event that the Tories look like winning Westminster in 2015, as that would be weird.
That suggests that the possible Yes vote from Labour and Lib Dem voters is around just 1% if Labour are favourites in the UK election, but 16% if it’s the Tories – with 5% of that extra 15% comprised of people currently voting No and the rest coming from the undecided camp. Apply those sorts of figures to just about any poll that’s been conducted in the last five years on independence and things start looking an awful lot brighter for the Yes campaign.
But you also learn that of the 63% who are either leaning towards No or undecided, around 30% are Labour (subtracting the 13.5% of non-independence SNP voters leaves you with more or less the Holyrood-intention totals for the three London parties combined, so it can’t be any more), and from the previous paragraph we saw that an absolute maximum of half of them (15%) are prepared to switch to the Yes side if the Tories look like winning at Westminster.
Which means that at least half of all Labour voters – and probably significantly more than that – really would rather see the Tories governing Scotland from London than have an independent Scottish government controlling its own affairs. Is that “anti-Scottish”? We wouldn’t like to say.
I don’t think that any ‘Party’ based polls have much relevance to the referendum.
When folk are alone in the polling booth, Yes or No for Scotland will be the choice.
I really do think that most folk will leave party affiliations behind.
I think you would probably find those are the ones who still believe Scotland is subsidised by England. Getting the truth about that out is the most important battle for us to win.
I wouldn’t be to sure about Tory votes being entirely anti independence either. In a survey we did a few years ago one in five of those identifying as Tories said they would vote YES
And if Independence becomes obviously certain any true Tory will be voting YES and letting eveybody know it. Toryism isn’t a political idelogy, its a pragmatic attitude that adapts to any developing system in such a way that those holding power and economic possesion retain that power and possesion in the event of a constitutional change
We need to understand and accept the strength of the New Labour (NL) pitch on this. The NL are just old-fashioned fascists, but in Scotland they are the fascists who matter. Of course they know and understand their corporate sponsors, but they also know and understand their electoral support. They know that a considerable number of them don’t give a shag about constitutional abstractions. Independence? Independence in the EU? Independence not in the EU? NATO? Bow and scrape to Queenzilla? It’s all baffling and boring to people whose only hope is that Tuesday will be less awful than Monday.
(start Machiavelli)
Play their game. Support for independence gets unassailably high if people think they will be £500 better off, so promise them the money, we can afford it. Independence was sold by a parcel o’ rogues, it can’t be wrong to buy it back. Anyone can be a rogue.
(end Machiavelli)
PS (and before anyone says): If Godwin’s Law is indeed a law, then it has a converse: it’s vitally important to describe people as fascists if that’s what they are.
“Which means that at least half of all Labour voters – and probably significantly more than that – really would rather see the Tories governing Scotland from London than have an independent Scottish government controlling its own affairs.”
A large chunk of the Labour vote is basically a manifestation of a condition called “learned helplessness”. It’s not necessarily that they want to see Tories governing Scotland, it’s that they honestly think that is their fate, and there is nothing they can do to stop it.
A major factor for the Yes campaign is to empower these voters, because a voter with any sense of empowerment is only going to vote one way…
@Vronsky.
If it walks like a duck……
The British Sports Personality / Nuremburg Rally was a good example.
I find it quite difficult to follow the figures given and maybe I’ve got it wrong but I certainly don’t believe the statement “… That suggests that the possible Yes vote from Labour and Lib Dem voters is around just 1% if Labour are favourites in the UK election… ” In my view, to suggest that only 1% of voters from Labour and LibDem would vote YES in ANY scenario is just not credible.
Commenter,
I too, would have thought that highly unlikely.
I note also that the Better Together campaign wants to raise an army of 20,000 activists. I would be very interested to know how many activists, as opposed to professional politicians, they can currently call upon. (I include wanabee politicians in the latter category, for they have to reflect the leadership if they want to get anywhere near a sniff at a seat)
It seems to me that you cannot just take the number of members and assume that they will all embrace what is already becoming a fairly scurrilous campaign. I expect some of their more politically savvy activists must be wondering, a lá Allan Grogan, just why they are supposed to be agin it?
I am not at all convinced that the existing parties will remain disciplined as the referendum approaches.
Rev Stu did a series of photos of the Better Together ‘events’ earlier this year. The associated photographs did not suggest a huge degree of activist support.
Just saying.
“In my view, to suggest that only 1% of voters from Labour and LibDem would vote YES in ANY scenario is just not credible.”
I agree. The likelihood seems that there’s a higher percentage of anti-independence SNP voters and more pro-independence types in the other parties, but that would have made the piece even harder to follow and the outcome would have been much the same, except even worse for Labour.
@douglas clark:
“I note also that the Better Together campaign wants to raise an army of 20,000 activists. I would be very interested to know how many activists, as opposed to professional politicians, they can currently call upon.”
Well, the Orange Order claims it has 50,000 members in Scotland…
Iseriously think that the better together mob involving the orange order in their campaigning would be the equivalent of their playing russian roulette without an empty chamber.
Quite apart from how doing that would galvanise the catholic vote there are more than 50,000 Protestants and others who despise the bigoted behaviour of that particular organisation and would be repelled by any cause that attracted their support.
Re polls. That panelbase one is the first published which asks the right kind of question. Ask people what they will vote for tomorrow and you’ll get a lower yes as people are not quite sure what they are voting for yet.
Note there will have been others like it carried out for both Yes and No camps but as not reported in the media, the pollsters don’t need to publish tables. This will help explain why Yes seem quite confident and No increasingly shrill.
As I’ve said before, if you want a good prediction of the referendum result, simply ask ‘In an ideal world, would you like Scotland to be independent, but with a good relationship with the rest of the UK?‘. You’ll get comfortably over 60% asking that.
I know this subject has been broached previously, but I still can’t get my head round “SNP voters” who would NOT vote for independence. Isn’t that the the raison d’etre of being an SNP voter?
I understand the difference between being a member of the SNP and being a ‘tactical’ SNP voter.There cannot, surely, be any actual members of the SNP who would vote No re independence. So, when the assertion is made that certain “SNP voters” are anti-independence, is that meant to mean those who, perhaps, voted for the SNP in the last Hollyrood election and did so as ‘floating’ voters but may not actually vote Yes in the coming referendum ?
I agree with Boorach. I’d be praying that the Orange Order doesn’t speak out for me if I were the BT campaign. It was embarrassing enough when the bigot Robinson said that he would be campaigning for BT. The OO would lose them votes by the bucketload.
It would be very useful indeed to have the Better Together campaign assciated with the Orange Lodge in the minds of the electorate as long as the YES campign doesn’t find itself mired in sectarian politics. I have no doubt this card is yet to be played by our opponents
@DR, ” know this subject has been broached previously, but I still can’t get my head round “SNP voters” who would NOT vote for independence. Isn’t that the the raison d’etre of being an SNP voter?”
It’s more ~10-15% of SNP voters are generally towards No. My best mate is one of them; he is half English/half Scots and so falls into the ‘Equally Scottish and British’ identity grouping which has the lowest support for independence. He thinks the SNP are really good and will keep voting for them but is torn emotionally about independence. He fully admits it is emotional; best way to describe it is he really wishes the UK was all hunky dory and this wasn’t happening. I can empathise.
However, he did say he’s really angry at the way the SNP are being treated by the pro-union side. So much so I wonder if he may yet change his mind if he can take emotion out of the equation. Either that, or he may decide to let others make the decision.
What struck me about this was he represented almost a guaranteed ‘no’ vote yet the pro-union campaign are doing their very best to swing him to yes or abstaining. There are many others like him.
I know someone like that too Scottish Skier.
He’s a queen and country Britisher, but above all he’s a fair bloke, and is utterly repulsed by the lies that the unionists are spreading, both in the speeches and their press releases. He finds out that they are lies because most of his mates are nationalists. There are many who don’t.
I think in the end he will be sickened into voting YES.
@Dal Riata:
I know this subject has been broached previously, but I still can’t get my head round “SNP voters” who would NOT vote for independence. Isn’t that the the raison d’etre of being an SNP voter?
I voted SNP for the first time at the Holyrood elections in May 2011, and subsequently at the council elections this year, for three basic reasons. The SNP had more than proved themselves in government over a very difficult period; they were the only party guaranteed to put Scotland and the Scottish people first; they were the only ones who had a credible policy programme. Oh, and the other three parties were (and still are) unrelentingly negative in their outlook and their faith in Scotland.
I did not expect them to win a majority, did not expect to be voting in an independence referendum during this parliamentary term and, therefore, did not give much thought to the issues. In any case, I had previously been in favour of trying to secure as much autonomy within the union as opposed to leaving it altogether. I didn’t see this as a reason not to vote SNP, though, as the independence decision would be separate (and greater autonomy/FFA/Devo-Max/etc would be much more likely with the SNP in power, anyway).
Subsequent events – the removal of a third option from the proposed referendum, the refusal of the unionist parties to develop serious proposals for Scottish autonomy, and the disgraceful behaviour and negativity of the unionist parties, the media and the ‘No’ campaign in general – have made me re-consider my position.
I didn’t vote for independence when I voted SNP in 2011, I voted for what I thought was in the interests of Scotland. Having seen the true face of the union and unionists since then I am now almost certain to vote Yes in 2014.
“So, when the assertion is made that certain “SNP voters” are anti-independence, is that meant to mean those who, perhaps, voted for the SNP in the last Hollyrood election and did so as ‘floating’ voters but may not actually vote Yes in the coming referendum?”
Yes, exactly that. Members != voters. The SNP has around 20,000 of the former and close to a million of the latter.
I’m not a labour supporter and have no truck with New Labour but to call them fascists is an ignorant calumny that cheapens the fight against real fascists in this world.
My younger brother is a definite ‘no’ to independence. He was resolutely against devolution and has never voted in a Holyrood election on principle. My older brother supports the SNP at Holyrood quite fancies the idea of Independence but is nervous that it will be a much more expensive undertaking than we think. He’s not online or in the least web savvy and gets his news from television and newspapers so picks up on the negativity. I think there are quite a few like him and it will be very important that the Yes campaign finds ways to get the message out to people like him to allay those fears.
Exactly, Elizabeth
There is still a very large place for the printed word coupled with door to door canvas.
We can win everything online but still lose a referendum
I favour newspaper format over leaflets for two reasons
1. People are conditioned to read stuff in newspaper format and are fairly likely to throw anything that looks like political pamphlet straight into the bin
2. Newsprint is far cheaper than pamphlets.
Goes without saying that any newspaer produced would have to be interesting and not just a politcal pamphlet in newsprint form. This is readily achieved
Just an observation after reading these interesting posts . . .
Are we not carrying the independence-deniers water for them when we refer to their NO campaign as the Better Together Campaign? Every time we use their euphemism we put lipstick on their pig.
Consider all the opportunities for erudite witticism and edifying polemic Nationalists cumulatively waste on those 13 extra characters. We are dispensing the Unionist Kool-Aid for them.
@ joppa
I am not taking sides here and I do not particularly want to open this can of worms, but what is fascism? In Europe, fascist parties have promoted policies which have reflected a wide range of political positions, not just the far-right. In general though, they all share(d) the key characteristics of being populist, nationalist parties which identify a return to “true national values”, in response to some perceived crises in society (usually economic). I would suggest that the political paradigm in Britain, indeed much of Europe, tends towards fascism. I also think that fear of Godwin undermines popular opposition to an economic and political crises in Europe that sees unelected bankers sitting in government in Italy (as they were in the ’30s), and openly neo-fascicts forming part of the government in Greece. Long live austerity!
@Cameron
Good question. I think commentators generally use Fascism on blogs as an illusion to the National Socialist German Workers’ Party (Nazis) of WWII and automatically link this to right wing politics. However, in the modern context, I am not sure that the old right/left is that relevant. More important is centralisation/localisation (or its extreme of individualism).
IMO the main features of fascism today still contains some of the elements from the past in that there is an emphasis on centralised state control. I would like to see more powers at the local level in Scotland as I am not convinced the centre has all the answers. The SNP could be more inventive in this regard.
Another aspect is a form of overt “Nationalism” where peoples’ birth is important. I do not see this in Scotland with the SNP, for example, as they are expressively a party that encourages ALL members of Scottish society. Contrast this with the BNP for example with their racist views on repatriation.
Interestingly, fascism has always tried to adopt a “third way” (sound familiar) between Marxism and capitalism. See Mussolini’s Italy for examples of this. So there IS more of a leaning towards the middle/lower class (again somewhat out-of-date terms) at the expense of the ‘upper’ class.
Finally I think that the combination of excessive business/commercial power (money), a compliant unthinking media, a centralised state, the politicization of the public sector (especially the police/military), and authoritarian tendencies (see all the new ‘crimes’ created in the last 15 years) create all the elements of a fascist state. Whether a political power uses them all to oppress us remains to be seen.
Sorry for the length of this post, but it is an interesting topic! Have a great 2013.
Bliadhna Mhath Ùr!
@ Aplinal
You hit the nail on the head, there is no real left or right. The politicians all work for the central banks, and we are their livestock, producing all the wealth whilst paying for their “mistakes”. Centralization of power is of course critical to the success of such a scam, which in the last four years has seen the biggest transfer of wealth in human history. Not to any deserving causes, but to the banksters that caused the economic crises in the first place.
In the modern British context, I reckon this process began with Thatcher’s “death by a thousand cuts”. Sold to us as a necessary step to reduce public borrowing, her whole privatisation agenda was essentially an attack on democratic accountability and collective bargaining rights that had taken centuries of struggle to secure. Hitler and Mussolini would have been proud of her, as these were some of the first steps they took when coming to power.
Rev,
Wait for Osborne’s Welface Cuts to kick in, and then really bite deep. I think a lot of folk who were unsure, or borderline ‘No’ will be so incensed, that they will just say ‘**** it…maybe Scotland should go it’s own way…’
I think once Osborne begins turning the screw, that a lot of Scots will become enraged, and thus they will wish for something better.
Scottish Labour will look on in horror as this happens, as there is nowt they can do. Miliband has already nailed his colours to the mast, by basically, declaring that Tory policies, in essence, were always correct. Two years to go….and as each Quarter goes by …watch those percentages slowly rise in the ‘Yes’ camp…
I will also say this…
When the Welfare Cuts do kick in, watch for the outbreak of xenophobia that will kick off across the entire island. When folk see their housing benefit, kiddie benefit, and whatever other benefit being taken off them, they are going to look at all those immigrants that are here, and demand to know, why they those folk are still here, and bleeding the state dry.
This will in turn lead to a rise in the ‘darker’ version of Nationalism all over the country, especially down south. UKIP and the BNP will probably feed on it. This may mean a rise in English Nationalism itself.
I’m guessing that we may see the odd bit of rioting and marches. It may not be the Weimer Republic of Germany in the late 20’s – early 30’s …but I sense a shade of it will hit Britain in the next couple of years….
JLT
The UK is of course in the ess aitch one tee and it will be very interesting and very significant how this fact sinks in to the thinking of people in Scotland.
It could play for us or play against us depending very much on how we play it and how the media report the probable gradual collapse
@ JLT
I am equally pessimistic about the future, but I’m not sure if the same scapegoating or race baiting will be employed. At least not in Scotland. Although racism has been used by the capitalist classes to divide workers since the 16th century (sorry if that sounds terribly Marxist), I think (hope) society has moved on sufficiently not to allow a repeat of past horrors. Mind you, people keep buying the burgers and sweatshop clothing, despite them only being affordable thanks to the IMF and the World Bank coordinating a slow and deliberate genocide of the southern hemisphere over the last fifty years.
IMO there are certain parallels between the economic and political crises of the ’20s, and ’30s, and the one we face today. However, the context within which events are unfolding today is radically different to that of the past. I am not sure of what implications this may have, but I’m sure they won’t be good for Joe Soap.
For starters, communism is dead. Propaganda and its dissemination is also of a completely different magnitude, sophistication and intensity today. More critically though, most of us have been turned in to debt slaves or some form of state dependent. This has effectively undermined any potential for effective resistance or dissent against so-called “necessary” austerity. Less radical than destroying the English language, our indebtedness and dependency has effectively had the same paralyzing effect as Orwell’s newspeak was intended to have. It frames the political discourse within parameters that are desirable to those at the top of the tree. This is a very deep hole we are in, and as you point out, we ain’t seen nothing yet.
Sorry for the length of my post and the gloomy tone.
All the best for 2013!
Hi Guys,
Dave McEwan Hill
Dave, I don’t think it would take the media for someone to say that they have had enough. It will come down to personal experience when the cuts do kick in. Once someone sees their housing benefit, kiddie benefit, etc being cut back, or taken away, then that person will begin to look for an alternative better future. It won’t need the media to tell them what to do. It will be life experience that will do it.
At the end of the day, when they begin to see someone like Miliband also talking about benefit cuts and tax hikes, they will begin to question the mainstream parties. Once they see the English jumping on UKIP (which in essence, is really an English National Party) then a few Unionists Scots may bite the bullet, and believe in an Independent Scotland.
Cameron,
As I said, I don’t envisage a UK ‘Weimar Republic with the rise of Nazism’ – far from it!! – As I said in my previous post …I see shades of the darker side of Nationalism rising – especially in England.
This dark form of Nationalism won’t happen in Scotland for one main reason – mass immigration never hit Scotland like the way it REALLY hit England.
In England, once the austerity ‘benefit cuts’ really kick in, I think eventually, we may see a few papers, such as the Daily Mail, highlighting about the number of immigrants still ‘bleeding’ the state dry. This in turn, may lead to more BNP or EDL marches.
I can see the odd riot (mainly like the one that London had in July 2011 – That riot was not about racism, but one that you could say was …’anger at the state’ – rioting and stealing in protest at the austerity measures, and for some …just rioting for the sheer pleasure of it).
English Nationalism is way, way different to Scottish Nationalism. It’s a totally different beast. For the people of England, they believe they have been swamped with immigrants over the last 50 years, and that the country is now out of control, or being led down the path by people whom they believe are ‘anti-British’ types who live on Benefits and know nothing of British culture. There is not an English person that I don’t know, that doesn’t fear for the future of England. They are utterly fed up with it, and are pretty angry over the whole issue.
We’ve been lucky that way – Scotland was never swamped, and there are no immigrant ‘ghettos’. We do have poor areas in all our cities, but we don’t have that one element that some of the cities in England have. The immigrants that did come to Scotland have more or less integrated to the Scottish society to a large degree.
That is what I mean about the darker side of Nationalism, and why I fear, it may raise its head south of the border…
On the subject of SNP supporters not backing independence…..
In 2011, I was halfway to the polling station when I realised I didn’t know where my first vote was going to. I was voting Green in the list vote, but they weren’t an option for the constituency. I said to myself “I guess I’m voting SNP then. Let’s see…. Conservative, hell no. Labour, well I would love to if only they really were a Labour party. Lib Dems, definitely not after they betrayed my vote last time. I guess it HAS to be SNP then.”
Now at the time I was not particularly in favour of independence, I just voted SNP because I couldn’t bring myself to support any of the other parties on offer. Now though, I’ve put two and two together and realised the obvious consequence of that reasoning. I now couldn’t bear to see a NO result in 2014.
So while many people will have voted SNP without supporting independence, I suspect that almost all of them will be ready to vote YES with only a tiny little push. At the end of the day, if you don’t support independence and you vote SNP, the likely explanation is that you’re sick of what the London parties are giving you. Why would you not then support independence once you think about it?
To those who replied to my question(s) re SNP voters, members and floaters, thanks for helping clear things up!
Bliadhina Mhath Ur to you all. 2013 should be…interesting!