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Super Spike Dislike

Posted on October 11, 2015 by

After this, this and this we were really hoping we’d never have to revisit the subject of the D’Hondt Method and get our calculator out again.

spikedislike

But OH NO!

The reason is that an alert reader sent us a copy of a leaflet that was being given out on behalf of someone called “Spike” at the Hope Over Fear rally a few weeks ago:

spikeexplains2

It’s so painfully, dangerously wrong that we couldn’t let it pass. (And we’re not even talking about the use of apostrophes.) We’ll make this as brief as humanly possible.

1. UKIP ARE NOWHERE NEAR EVEN 6.5%

The latest TNS poll puts them on less than half that: 3%. The whole premise of the argument is a straw man. As things stand, UKIP have close to no chance whatsoever of getting a single MSP. (And even if they did, so what? The media gives them a platform anyway.)

2. VERY FEW PEOPLE ARE PREPARED TO CONSIDER TACTICAL VOTING

As we noted in the previous articles, historical evidence shows that the percentage of people prepared to vote tactically is, at best, 5-10%. A concerted anti-SNP campaign this May, heavily pushed in the media and actively supported by at least two major newspapers, was spectacularly ineffectual.

(And as not all would-be tactical voters will be on the same side, 5% is a very, VERY optimistic estimate of how many you have any chance of getting.)

3. YOU CAN’T HAVE THREE RECIPIENT PARTIES IN A TACTICAL VOTE

Obviously. Obviously. The only way a tactical vote has even an atom of a chance of succeeding is if everyone knows exactly who they’re meant to vote for. There’s no possible way of assessing and communicating which of the three parties named in the leaflet is the best placed in each region – not least because the current support of two of them is so low it doesn’t register on opinion polls.

Since it’s stupendously unlikely any of the three will stand aside in any of Scotland’s regions, they’ll all be fighting each other to be the beneficiaries of any “tactical” vote, and thereby fragmenting it.

4. EVEN A MIRACLE SCENARIO IS USELESS

But just for fun, let’s put these cripplingly major issues to one side. Let’s assume for a moment that the tactical-vote campaign succeeds beyond its wildest imaginings and that fully one third of SNP voters decide to give their second vote to one of the other pro-independence parties. Since the Greens are the best-known by a large margin, we’ll give them 50% and the other two 25% each.

To fit as closely as possible to the scenario laid out by “Spike” we’ll allocate the list vote to Labour 20%, Tories 11%, Greens 12.7%, UKIP 6.5%, Solidarity (now aka Hope Not Fear) 4.6%, Rise (or whatever they end up being called) 4.6% and the Lib Dems 4%, with the SNP’s starting position at a notional 55%.

(We’ve given the Greens 50% of the SNP tactical votes on top of their polling base. For the purposes of the calculation Solidarity and Rise both have a base of zero.)

We ran those numbers through the D’Hondt process. The full seat-by-seat breakdown of the figures can be found here. But the end results come out like this:

SCENARIO 1 – NO TACTICAL VOTING

Labour: 3
Conservatives: 2
SNP: 1
UKIP: 1

SCENARIO 2 – 33% TACTICAL VOTING SNP>OTHERS

Labour: 3
Conservatives: 1
Green: 2
UKIP: 1

In other words, all that’s achieved by tactical voting – even if it’s vastly more successful than it could ever dream of being in reality, and also assuming the SNP win every single constituency seat, which is unlikely – is swapping a Labour and an SNP MSP for two Green ones. UKIP still get in. D’Hondt doesn’t like being gamed.

That’s all fine and dandy for fans of the Greens or of pluralism in general, but as a mechanism for moving towards independence (which is the stated goal) it’s badly flawed, because this weekend’s Scottish Greens conference in Glasgow revealed that the party’s commitment to a second referendum is decidedly lukewarm:

greenref

In other words, the Green policy is only to support a second referendum if enough people sign a petition for one, and if more people don’t sign a petition against it. So there’s a real risk that instead of having six list votes against a referendum and one for (as in Scenario 1), you’d have seven against (Scenario 2).

As ever, this site isn’t interested in telling people how to vote. Vote for whoever you want to. But whoever “Spike” is he’s talking complete cobblers, and people ought to make their decision based on accurate information. We’re not fans.

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    186 to “Super Spike Dislike”

    1. Heather says:

      It’s SNP / SNP for me – I’m voting for who I want to form the next government and for the party which is most likely to deliver independence!

    2. David McCann says:

      As they say in the newsroom, put Spikes analysis on the spike!

      Vote SNP both times.

    3. Johnny says:

      It’s hard not to imagine that ‘Spike’ is, in fact, some form of unionist intent on splitting the SNP vote.

      Either that, or delusionally idealistic as to the likeihood of hoards of people voting tactically for the Greens or the radical left (who, unfair as it is, are seen as a bit ‘beyond the pale’ by many voters conditioned to believe that only certain political ideas are not ‘MAD!’ or ‘BARMY!’ or whatever. Much as I hope political discourse matures one day, it isn’t happening in time for next May).

    4. Paul says:

      It really is this simple:

      1.) Constituency vote is your choice of local representative.
      2.) List vote is your choice of party you’d like to form Government.

      If you’re a Green/RISE/Solidarity/ANother party supporter then by all means give them your list vote, if you’re an SNP supporter then it has to be SNP/SNP.

    5. jimnarlene says:

      Heather says
      It’s SNP / SNP for me – I’m voting for who I want to form the next government and for the party which is most likely to deliver independence!

      Agreed.

    6. galamcennalath says:

      ‘Spike’ sounds like just one more tactic in the Imperialists’ grand strategy to deprive the SNP of a majority in May.

      It cannot be a genuine Indy initiative because (as Stu points out) you can’t have tactical voting for multiple parties! The none too disguised objective here is to split the Indy vote and let Unionists slip through.

      And, a related note, the Greens. It is becoming more and more obvious that independence is not their highest priority. Fair enough, now we know. However, when I heard about their ‘referendum’ about having a real referendum, I finally realised they are a bunch of political amateurs.

      There was a time when I could understand people wanting to choose a pro Indy ‘list party’. Hell, no! SNP-SNP is a must if you care about independence.

    7. Paul Gilligan says:

      There is only one party than can deliver independence for Scotland and that is the SNP. But even taking that out of the equation no party works harder for Scotland and it’s people.

      The answer is simple both votes SNP on 6th may 2016

    8. JBS says:

      SNP constituency and list for me. I just want independence for Scotland.

      Oh, and bollocks to Bella Caledonia. Sorry, I just had to get that off my chest.

    9. Patrician says:

      I spoke to the person handing these out a couple of weeks ago; after a quick read I explained to them that the leaflet was complete bollox and all I got for an answer was mumble, mumble, head down and walk away quickly.

    10. Jack Beck says:

      I sometimes wonder if some of the saboteurs don’t deliberately mis-use apostrophes to kind of say – “hey, look, I’m just as illiterate as you, so I’m your pal – you can trust me!

    11. Grouse Beater says:

      The flier is a visual catastrophe!

      Sore on the eyes.

      And I’m not a person with glasses and limited vision! Folk will bin it – it’s sooooo visually chaotic!

    12. Clootie says:

      Spike knows exactly what he is doing. He is trying to mislead the very large group of “natural” Greens who presently vote SNP to switch their 2nd vote to the Greens.

      The people he is trying to mislead vote SNP on the basis of a collective “best chance” to Independence. They will probably switch to Green AFTER Independence.

      Spike is putting his own narrow party interests first. We need to unite behind the best option until we gain Independence.

      Vote SNP twice and ensure the pressure is maintained. I don’t worry about who people vote for post Independence.

      In the meantime vote for the best chance for Scotland

    13. thomaspotter2014 says:

      I think Spike might just want to ‘spike’ the SNP guns with his let’s split the SNP vote bullshit.

      The more attacks on SNP/SNP are made the more determined we should be to ensure SNP/SNP is the only way to go.

      Also looks like Snp voters have to feel ‘obliged’ to vote for Green-SSP or other assorted crews while all they’ve doing lately is join in the Establishment attack campaign.

      Rise-CatBoyd-Common Space-and sadly Bellacaledonia now seem to be infected with BTUKOK poison.

      Probably better that this stuff is coming out now,before too much damage can be done.The tentacles of deep state are reaching out.

      Once INDEPENDENCE is achieved the electorate can vote for anybody they like but until then it’s gotta be SNP/SNP all the way.

      And if it looks like Westminster is about to drag Scotland into another illegal war in Syria-that should be enough for us to withdraw from the UK warmongers snakepit.

    14. The Isolator says:

      It’s worth repeating
      “Never trust a fuckn hippie”

      John Lydon.

    15. frogesque says:

      Oh deary dear! SNP/SNP

      No more needs to be said – Next Topic!

    16. Roslyn says:

      I have a nice wee spreadsheet set up for the highlands and islands list you can borrow. It does the sums for you ????

    17. The Isolator says:

      I haven’t spent 40 plus years of my life advocating independence tae watch these compromising barstewarxs take me down a road I know sweet fuck all about.

      SNP all the way!

    18. Isabel Melville says:

      It’s not hard to find out who Spike is. Just use whois on his website. Someone must know Mr Milligan.

    19. Donald Kerr says:

      ‘Hope Not Fear’ link should be ‘Hope Iver Fear’ … I know, you don’t know what I’m talking about!

    20. Macart says:

      SNP x 2 for me.

      After the past year, achieving independence and having a party strong enough and dedicated enough to defend our interests and carry us beyond the Westminster nightmare is more necessary than ever.

      If folks think Osborne’s last budget was bad, that the media are merely being a bit poor, or that IDS is done reforming, wait’ll they really get a head of steam up.

      I’m for the very first available exit from their madness.

    21. Rock says:

      The Greens have taken over from where the Fib Dems left.

      If you support the SNP and independence, don’t be duped into giving the 2nd list vote to the Greens or to anyone else.

      If we want to force Westminster’s hand, we must give a massive mandate to the SNP, in both seats and % of votes.

      Both votes to the SNP.

    22. Krogos says:

      As proven by the pouters in May, no-one is interested in tactical voting. SNP/SNP all the way. The only real choice.

    23. ewen says:

      That leaflet hurts the eyes and the rushed website does too.
      I smell unionist.

    24. mogabee says:

      I have heard nothing that will entice me to vote other than SNP/SNP.

      Someone is seriously at it.

    25. Kennedy says:

      Dont split your vote. We know this. Some will fall for it.

      SNP/SNP

      After Independence split your vote if you like. Not before.

    26. Andy Dewar says:

      thanks Rev,
      Changed my mind SNP/SNP for me.

    27. Grouse Beater says:

      The Greens?
      Why would anybody give their vote to an unelectable party? We must ensure electable parties embrace green priorities.

    28. One_Scot says:

      SNP/SNP all day everyday.

      Anyone tells you any different is not looking for Independence, or does not understand what needs to be done to win Independence.

    29. ewen says:

      Twitter set up at end of September, Website domain at the beginning of August. Nothing really there on the site, nothing about the person or who they represent. All a rush job and it smells of a false flag.

    30. Atypical_Scot says:

      Out of interest – if the second vote was 100% for say the Greens, would that make;

      Labour 4

      Greens 4

      Conservatives 2

      UKIP 1

      Or does it not work like that?

    31. caz-m says:

      We have to try and persuade our friends in the Greens, SSP/Rise and others that voting SNP/SNP would benefit them in the long run.

      A strong SNP can lead us to Independence, then the first General Election AFTER Independence, you revert back to your favoured Party.

      The same tactics must be applied in the 2017 local council elections.

      There is no sense in diluting the SNP vote.

      They must bite the bullet until we are on the other side.

    32. uno mas says:

      Nice graphics though eh?

      Fuck me i´ve seen ransom notes with better visual appeal!

    33. galamcennalath says:

      Imperialist strategy obvious. Prevent IndyRef2 by denying the SNP a majority in May.

      Tactics so far …

      False propaganda on SNP government performance ie. Education, NHS, Police

      Smear MP/MSP in areas where they feel a Unionist might have a chance of retaining/winning a constituency.

      Try to split Indy left and SNP by highlighting many in the SNP are not socialists.

      Reduce the SNP list votes by pretending there is some tactical possibilities for other Indy parties.

      … no doubt more to come!

    34. Lanarkist says:

      ^^What Caz-m says^^.

    35. ClanDonald says:

      If all those numbers and percentages are doing your head in think about it this way:

      SNP’s Joan McAlpine is up against Tory David Mundell’s son, Oliver, for the Dumfriesshire constituency. Now you’ll remember Mundell Sr beat the SNP’s Emma Harper in the same area in May’s General Election so there’s a very, very real chance that Mundell Jr could beat Joan next May.

      If this happens then Joan (if she makes the list) will need every single second vote so that she hangs on to her seat. This means every single SNP voter in the south of Scotland region (all 7 constituencies and not just Dumfriesshire) has to vote SNP/SNP.

      Otherwise it could mean Joan losing her seat or even the SNP losing their majority and that would be a massive PR victory for the unionist press.

      So don’t listen to anyone trying to baffle you with numbers and percentages, just think of Joan losing to Mundell-Mini-Me and having to depend on your second list votes to keep her seat.

    36. Hoss Mckintosh says:

      So the Greens have dropped their pro-indy stance and adopted some wishy-washy line to go in their manifesto. They must be after the disaffected Lib-Dem vote.

      So they could become a 5th Unionist Party fighting against the other 4 for the No voters? Really Daft move.

      However, all the more votes for the SNP. 🙂

      So for Holyrood it has to be:
      SNP 1
      SNP 2

    37. Tackety Beets says:

      It’s Sunday , I agree with Rock .

      We have to give every vote possible to SNP . Every vote is encouragement to NS / JS etc with the added GIFRUY to WM etc

      After yesterday’s Greens implication of disinterest in iScotland , my first thought was , how does that sit with the strong princlepled John Finnie now , where is jumping to now ?

      My 2nd thought was how many voters will they actually loose ?

      JS / Gordon Brewer was awful again , hearing the off camera snide snigger riled me , worst ever.

      What’s the saying ” A face even a mother wid skelp”

      Jack Beck @ 5.05. Are you missing one o these ? ” What a catastrophe. Smiley thing !

    38. crazycat says:

      @ ClanDonald

      The sitting MSP for Dumfriesshire is Elaine Murray (Lab), and she appears to be standing again.

      I absolutely agree that Joan McAlpine needs as many list votes as possible (I assume she’ll be a list candidate, and near or at the top), and she will get mine, but in the constituency (which I don’t live in) I’m not sure Mundell Jr is the greatest threat.

      Either way, of course, what you say applies in principle (there are 9 rather than 7 constituencies in South of Scotland, though).

    39. X_Sticks says:

      As Ewan said earlier “I smell unionist”

      I suspect the left has a number of wormtongues working within it.

      The unionists are desperate to stop the SNP gaining a full majority in Holyrood and will do anything to try and prevent it. There will be black ops afoot heading towards May. They will try to divide us. Try to get us fighting amongst ourselves.

      There will be more smears against the SNP from the London media. There will be endless criticism of those things within the power of Holyrood. Education, health and policing. They are trying to undermine peoples confidence in the SNP. It’s going to be another rollercoaster folks.

      As I’ve said before there’s only one bus to the destination I want. SNP x 2 from me.

    40. Grouse Beater says:

      “When will we see your like again?” sing rugby fans …

      when you vote Yes, your bloody idiots!

    41. dakk says:

      Jack Beck. 5.05

      Spot on.

      O/T I notice Sky News hasn’t reported the failed demolition of Red Road flats and the decanting of 2500 people to hotels at massive expense.

      Their tardiness will be due to them trying to work out an SNP bad angle and damage limitation for SLab,for this is a massive visual and human interest story.

    42. Atypical_Scot says:

      Amendment to my previous comment;

      Would that make;

      Greens 4 with 21.9%

      Labour 4 with 20%

      etc.

      Meaning the Greens would be the opposition party?

    43. Wulls says:

      Hypothetically could we set up a second political party called SNS (Scottish National Supporters) to “harness” the second votes ?????
      That way the SNP could sweep up the constituencies and the second stand alone party could take in well over half the list votes ????
      I’m amazed no-one has thought of this before.

    44. Rock says:

      Remember too that the SNP has inevitably been infiltrated.

      Don’t even trust SNP activists if they even midly suggest giving the list vote to the Greens or to anyone else.

      We won’t get a second referendum for a generation unless the SNP gets a massive share of the vote.

      Stick to just one mantra: always vote, and always vote SNP only until after independence.

      (No doubt the likes of ronnie anderson and his fans will consider this as comments by a unionist troll!)

    45. thomaspotter2014 says:

      Dakk@6.45

      MSM did’t report the pipers who burst into a directors box at the Scotland/Samoa game either.re:bagpipe ban.

      It was right near the end of the match,the commentator said it was happening but i ain’t seen nowt about it anywhere.

      Strange huh????

      Great British Edited News.

    46. crazycat says:

      @ Wulls

      I think that setting up another party, and not having the SNP contest the lists, would be regarded very unfavourably by the Electoral Commission, who might refuse to register it. That was the conclusion when it was mentioned previously on here, anyway.

      Too transparent a ruse.

    47. ahundredthidiot says:

      Just watched red row flats demo on news

      Crap

      Building 7 fell faster!

    48. Kenny says:

      I’ll play devil’s advocate. Say the support for indy stalls at around 50% and shows no sign of continuing to grow over a period of 6-12 months.

      Might this not signify that we have reached “peak SNP” and this is as much parliamentary support as the SNP, the parliamentary vangarde of the YES movement, can obtain?

      And, if so, is a second party not needed to turn NO voters into convinced YESers… or to vote for a pro-indy party in various elections?

      In which case, what sort of party would this be? Scunnered pensioners? A sort of Business for Scotland group to hoover up small c conservatives?

      My thinking is that there are still inroads to be made in the Labour vote (why it is still over 20% beggars belief!). But might there be something about the SNP that is stopping these traditional Labour votes from crossing over?

      If so, might we have reached “peak SNP” and something additional is needed, which is not covered by the other YES parties on the left?

    49. Grouse Beater says:

      Kenny: If so, might we have reached “peak SNP” and something additional is needed, which is not covered by the other YES parties on the left?

      If there’s anything ‘separate’ about independence it is that the issue is not about the SNP, but about full democratic powers.

      If some agreed threshold is not reached then we are left to accept a section of the population don’t feel we need full democracy, that enough ‘trickles up’ from London, while others are oblivious of deficiencies.

    50. Effijy says:

      Did Spike have blond hair, and was he wearing a Bullingdon
      Drinking Suit? Was he on a Zip Wire?

      Boris stop this nonsense and learn how to comb
      your hair, if you’re going to be the next prime
      minister of Englund.

      PS Visit Slater’s and they will explain how to find a suit that fits you!

    51. Hoss Mackintosh says:

      @Kenny,

      I do not think we have reached SNP peak yet. We still have at least 5 years of Tory Government and a completely ineffectual Labour Party both at Holyrood and Westminster.

      We just have to keep pushing and the House of Cards will fall.

    52. Ruby says:

      ‘But whoever “Spike” is’

      His address
      Postal code: IV27 4XJ

      Address: Ard Cruaidh, Tongue, Lairg, Lairg, Sutherland

      It probably wouldn’t be that difficult to find out who he/she is.

    53. yesindyref2 says:

      Good grief, there’s even dodgy maths within the dodgy maths of that dodgy leaflet.

    54. Ruby says:

      Spikesvisualworld.Com Ltd

      oops I missed out the Ltd in previous post

    55. yesindyref2 says:

      A problem with as in the Rev’s example, 2 Green MSPs knocking 2 SNP MSPs out of the list is the neccessary majority SNP Government to demand another referendum from Westminster (in the right circumstances).

      Relying on any kind of “YES Alliance” is shot out of the water and plunged straight down to Davy Jones’s Locker by this from the Herald:

      ” GREEN MSPs would not automatically vote for a second referendum in a hung parliament, despite the party advocating independence, it emerged yesterday.

      Instead, the public could be asked whether they wanted a referendum, rather than having one imposed on them by political parties.

      The mechanism would be a mass petition or “Citizens’ Initiative” on the issue – essentially a referendum on whether to stage a referendum. “

    56. Clydebuilt says:

      It’s SNP 1st and SNP 2nd for me…….. Spread the word

    57. yesindyref2 says:

      The SNP had an Independence Referendum in their manifesto for the 2007 elections. Between 2007-2011, with a minority SNP Government, the Conservatives, Labour and LibDem MSPs made it plain they would vote against a referendum being held, Wendy Alexander then Leader of Labour in Scotland was removed when she famously said “bring it on”. There was no Independence Treferendum called for by the SNP, because they would ahve lost the vote in Holyrood.

      The only way to guranantee the Scottish Government being able to call with authority, and the Holyrood majority, is to have an overall SNP Majority Government in 2016.

      Sad, but true.

    58. dakk says:

      Thomaspotter. 6.56

      ‘pipers who burst into directors box at Scotland /Samoa match

      Didn’t know about that,but its the kind of thing broadcasters would usually mention as they are so precious about VIPs,unless they don’t want something to get any publicity.

      They must’ve put out a quick wee D notice on it 🙂

      Sky News have now reported the Red Road flats but made light of it.No SNP bad angle available.

    59. Robert Peffers says:

      @caz-m says: 11 October, 2015 at 5:51 pm:

      “We have to try and persuade our friends in the Greens, SSP/Rise and others that voting SNP/SNP would benefit them in the long run.”

      Now then – let’s have a wee thought about this.

      I’ve always been a country boy – born in a Pluchie’s Raw and even when the family moved to Edinburgh we were located in a wriggle of Prefabs out in the country. By the time they were building housing schemes around us we were moving out of the city.

      I’m all for the ideas supposedly espoused by the greens but which they don’t quite follow through on. In point of fact the party in the entire UK that has done most for the World’s ecology has been the SNP.

      Who is it that has made on-shore wind the cheapest, greenest electric power – The SNP. Who is it backing Carbon Capture – The SNP, What of new Hydro, Hydrogen Workshop, tidal, wave and Sea Current and NON-Nuclear? Furthermore, the Greens have been two-faced on several areas and backed certain landowners against good green policies.

      Anyway I don’t know how to vote other than SNP and, being almost octogenarian, I don’t suppose I ever will.

    60. Jim Thomson says:

      @Ruby 7:29pm

      odd lines in the accounts too. I suspect liabilities are directors’ loans

      https://companycheck.co.uk/company/sc227201/SPIKESVISUALWORLDCOM-LTD/financial-accounts

    61. Colin Church says:

      @ahundredthidiot says:

      Just watched red row flats demo on news

      Crap

      Building 7 fell faster!

      Now that made me laugh. Perhaps they just weren’t unstable enough.

      No doubt S Daisley will have a theory that protects vested interests.

    62. Clydebuilt says:

      O/T…….. The BBC have moved on from Michell Tomson…..the latest target is Gordon Strachan…. They’re trying to do a George Burley on him…. Run him out of town……. They’ve got to sicken Gordon before he makes his mind up. Just switched on the radio on for the start of the match , in last few seconds before kick off all we got out of Liam the commentator was aggressive negativity about the manager and his future.
      One thing’s for sure, if the BBC want rid of Gordon Strachan that means he’s good for Scotland and our team. So far we’ve had Kenny Dalgleish, Pat Nevin, Alex McLeish and Dennis Law Sticking up for Gordon. Add your voices, talk up for a fine Scottish manager

    63. De Valera says:

      Until we have independence, I will vote SNP/SNP. After that I will vote for a party that wants to abolish the Monarchy.

    64. Capella says:

      Has to be SNP/SNP for me. I’ve no idea who Spike is but his grammar and graphics are atrocious.

    65. Wuffing Dug says:

      SNP / SNP absolutely no doubt.

      We can sort out the rest later.

    66. davidb says:

      It sends an important political message to vote SNP on both ballots. So I suggest everyone supporting the SNP does just that.

      This PR system is very difficult and unpredictable to game. It would take a very great deal of organisation, a great deal of information. and a great deal of luck to significantly engineer any particular result.

      If the SNP across the country ( latest poll ) are indeed on 56% First and 52% 2nd ballot then even if they snatch all 73 FPTP, they can still pick up AM seats depending on specific local variations in Conservative/ Labour/ LD vote shares. Even where the Quotient starts at 10, 6th and 7th round seats can be swung on a handful of votes.

      I have only studied my own region in any depth, but I believe we can take all FPTP and pick up 1 of the AM. If people start playing funny I suspect the main winner may be the Conservatives. There is a coalescing of Unionists about them by the look of polls and recent elections. Vote Green get Blue – there’s a slogan for you.

      I would urge Labour voters who cannot vote against their party to abstain on the second ballot if the candidates on their list do not come out for independence. Labour has a chance to show it is listening by selecting with high positions ( 1 – 4 ) on its lists, people known to favour independence.

    67. Glesca Keelie says:

      Before the referendum, I went to a meeting/discussion, one of the panel being Mr.P. Harvey.
      He explicitly said, because I asked the question, that if he, as a green, could get what he wanted within the Union, that would do for him.
      So, no Green vote for me, ever.

    68. Ruby says:

      Jim Thomson says:
      11 October, 2015 at 7:52 pm

      @Ruby 7:29pm

      odd lines in the accounts too. I suspect liabilities are directors’ loans

      RUBY REPLIES:
      If you say so Jim. When I see loads of columns of figures and flow charts I just switch off and hope someone like yourself posts a simple explanation.

      It would seem Spikesvisualworld.com Ltd is being run by
      Erik George Muir Web Designer From Orkney &
      John Alexander Milligan Teacher From Lairg

      I haven’t figured out what the company does but they don’t seem to be very good a visuals or webdesign.

      According to http://www.192.com/atoz/people/milligan/john/iv27/507775818/ people who were on the electoral role at the same address included someone called David Milligan.

      I remembered the name David Milligan from The Scotsman. I thought he was someone who had formed his own political party. I could be wrong.

      https://ncdiblog.wordpress.com/about/

      More online sleuthing required! I do like a good whodunnit?

      When we’ve solved the Spikesvisualworld.com Ltd mystery it might be interesting to look at Arden Strategies Limited, Alistair Darling Ltd, Third Avenue Communications Ltd, MIMC Consult Ltd, Mike Crockart Management Consultancy Ltd & Generous at Work Ltd

    69. Dave McEwan Hill says:

      I always ask the question “If the UK Government was to become seriously green would the Greens in Scotland vote for independence?” I doubt it.
      Same question can be asked of many of our socialist good weather friends.

      I am not suggesting that these people are anything other than principled and well intentioned and I agree with them in many areas and of course they have every right to contest elections.
      But they are unreliable friends.

      The “independence is a means to an end” mantra is flawed. It does not promise a green Scotland or a socialist Scotland or a rich Scotland or a secular Scotland.
      It promises only a Scotland that chooses its own governments and is responsible for its own future determined by the people of Scotland.

      We will see a concerted canvass for the Greens in the media. They have worked out this is the easiest way to damage the SNP vote.

      SNP FPTP and SNP list.

    70. K1 says:

      Ayep, SNP/SNP, spike can fuck off.

    71. HandandShrimp says:

      Bit of a shooting gallery against Gibraltar. Scotland 3 goals up with 21 shots at goal so far.

    72. Hamish100 says:

      Dave McEwan Hill is spot on. When there was discussion over possible 1 candidate to represent pro Indy the Scottish Greens had already chosen their candidate and was not willing to discuss in my area. Nice try but snp/ snp is the only way.

    73. @Ruby

      Someone at The Orkney Vole might be able to assist.

      http://theorkneyvole.com

      SNPx2

    74. Ruby says:

      Case solved we now know who dunnit. However the next mystery to solve is why he dunnit?

      http://www.nominet.uk/whois/lookup?query=spikeexplains.uk

      Domain name:
      spikeexplains.uk

      Registrant:
      J A Milligan

      Registrant type:
      UK Individual

      Registrant’s address:
      Ardcruaidh
      Lairg
      Sutherland
      IV27 4XJ
      United Kingdom

    75. ewen says:

      David Milligan used to post on here. I remember the lvss bit. There was another poster on the Herald who was also lvss.

    76. yesindyref2 says:

      I think all the parties have the rght to campaign for their own candidate, but they should cut the obvious dishonesty of “a vote for the SNP on the list is a wasted vote”. If people want to give their second vote to a non-SNP party, perhaps out of gratitude for the Green etc. supporters giving their constituency vote to the SNP, then that’s up to the voters, and perhaps between individual constituency canvassers knowing the odds, the polls and the figures, and co-operating a bit.

      But in general while targetting voters generally with policies, the parties should target more Labour, LibDem and even soft Conservative voters, rather than each other.

      This dishonesty stuff like the leaflet could damage the Indy Movement a bit, straightforward open and genuine competition can’t.

    77. Free Scotland says:

      Spike is probably a “nom de plume” being used by Jim Murphy. In which case (putting it politely, like) take a hike, Spike. On yer bike.

      SNP/SNP every time!

    78. Bill Hume says:

      Oh dear, and Spike Milligan was a hero of mine (OK, he was a racist, womanising old git who once shot a kid for pinching his apples) I still liked him……unlike this impersonator.
      SNP/SNP, the only way.

    79. john king says:

      uno mas says
      “Fuck me i´ve seen ransom notes with better visual appeal!”

      What?
      you mean it wasn’t a ransom note?

      brilliant,
      love it!

    80. yesindyref says:

      I think Spike was a vampire from Buffy the Vampire Slayer, which might be appropriate considering the theme of sucking other parties blood.

    81. Stoker says:

      It takes 2 to make a dream come true!

      SNP X 2

      It Takes Two
      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tDMlpx5k0s8
      😉

    82. Ealasaid says:

      I really really want Independence in my lifetime and away from the corrupt midden that is Westminster. This splitting the vote really reeks of dishonesty, manipulation and party before people. I hate that.

      It will definitely be SNP/SNP for me.

      While I am very interested in the environment and habitat conservation I have to confess I have not been impressed by the Green parties. As Robert Peffers said, the SNP have done much more to protect the environment. The Greens seem more like a protest Group.

    83. heedtracker says:

      . As things stand, UKIP have close to no chance whatsoever of getting a single MSP. (And even if they did, so what? The media gives them a platform anyway.)

      BBC certainly do and BBC R4 in particular. Jim Naughty sounded like he was having an orgasm, just reading out Jabba the Hut had got UKIP MEP elected and he doesn’t even live in Scotland either, Jabba that is.

      No idea where Naughty lives. Be great to hear a Breweresque bullshitter like Naughty explain honestly why he was so turned on by UKIP’s Scottish MEP win, for example.

      Maybe he could write a novel about his days as a BBC shill at R4, titled, How I fcuked Scottish independence, you may now kiss my ring ingrate sweaties.

      You can just hear that fat guy adenoidal cringe right och aye the noo.

    84. Ruby says:

      cynicalHighlander says:
      11 October, 2015 at 9:08 pm

      @Ruby

      Someone at The Orkney Vole might be able to assist.

      Ruby replies:

      Cheers!

      ERIK GEORGE MUIR
      10 LASTIGAR
      WESTRAY
      ORKNEY
      KW17 2DJ
      Born in April 1968

      Perhaps Erik George & J A Milligan will read this come on here and tell us all about themselves.

      I think I would be suggesting they might want to check out the following

      http://designshack.net/articles/typography/8-rules-for-creating-effective-typography/

      http://www.awwwards.com/websites/typography/

    85. Robert Louis says:

      It must be SNP/SNP, if you want to see independence. The latest nonsense from the greens about a petition, is hard to believe. People forget that a referendum is just that, a referendum, it is not UDI.

      So, in a nutshell, the greens want to hold a petition to decide if people want to hold a referendum to decide if they want independence. Only one word for that, STUPID. A seriously messed up piece of thinking.

      Honestly I am disappointed in the greens, but better that we know now.

      None of what Rev STU has explained above will stop the usual culprits from popping up here, to try to argue, that ‘theoretically, blah de blah de blah, we should vote tactically’.

      If you want independence, vote SNP. Twice.

    86. Clydebuilt says:

      The Greens are the Unionists useful idiots.

    87. Dan Huil says:

      SNP/SNP

    88. Cadogan Enright says:

      Ho hum

      beat France too. . . . . .

    89. TheWealthofNations says:

      I do wish people would get over taking the pish out of the referendum for a referendum idea.

      Yup, easy target, many lol’s had on twitter at the Greens expense, etc, etc.

      Now take a breath and analyse that idea.

      A rolling ‘opinion poll’ with a very high threshold to trigger an automatic Referendum.

      Pass that into law and you never have to answer the inane ‘When will you hold another referendum?’ question ever again.

      The level of support for indyref2 will be in the public domain, every stupid stunt by Westminster will cause the clock to tick innexorably towards midnight.

      And when the bell finally tolls it will be a foregone conclusion.

      Imagine widening that out into a form of direct democracy where the people of Scotland get to make their own petitions and trigger referenda on any subject they choose.

      You would never have to put a contentious policy issue in a manifesto again.

      Any time you are asked about a difficult subject you can honestly answer ‘That will be up to the people of Scotland.’

      You can stop trying to second guess what the electorate want and campaign on your record of competance in government.

      Yup, your right, that’s a silly idea.

      I’m off to say something derisive and sneery on twitter right this instant…

    90. dakk says:

      SNP twice- because they are the only party who will try to make policies which put Scotland and it’s people first.

      For the British parties,Scotland does not enter their thoughts,other than how they can benefit from us,and how we can be bound tight.

    91. DickieT says:

      Lets never forget that Caroline Lucas, the Green MP for Brighton, was criticised for voting against the SNP amendment during a debate on the Scotland Bill.

      The Greens cannot be trusted.. Vote SNP/SNP

    92. Johnny says:

      Yes, I think the person above who pointed out that, if the SNP % in recent polls are accurate and hold up, then the SNP will have a majority. That’s all we need, really.

      Talk of ‘running down the unionists till they have no MSPs’ is both fanciful and irrelevant anyway. The system is designed to offer up some proportionality and so the unionist parties will, at a minimum, take somewhere in the region of 50 seats. They won’t have ‘no MSPs’ because their vote will not be 0%, but somewhere in the region of 40-45%.

      But the point is, if people go out and vote SNP twice, then we do not have to worry about unionist parties (or even the Greens) stymieing whatever the SNP government would wish to do with its majority (particularly calling a 2nd indyref if the time seems right).

    93. dakk says:

      Cadogan Enright

      ‘beat France too’

      Well done Ireland.

      I didn’t like the look of O’Connell’s injury though.He could be a big miss for the rest of the tourney.

    94. Alan Crerar says:

      Just had a thought – regardless of whether Spike is right or wrong – can we aim for more than 50%+ votes for SNP, regardless of the number of seats gained, thus securing a majority for independence in a sort of Catalan-type ‘referendum’. This could include votes for those minor parties who unequivocally support Independence. Firm statement from those parties would be helpful beforehand.
      As an SNP member, I am unsure if the terms of my membership actually allow me to vote for another party anyway!

    95. sinky says:

      Check out Helen Goodman Labour MPs racist tweet

    96. Still Positive. says:

      I was at an SNP Women’s lunch in Dumbarton today and my MP Martin Docherty spoke of the British Greens – I think that he meant that although they have autonomy in each individual country they are basically a British Party.

      And definitely not to be trusted after their conference yesterday.

      I had a lot of sympathy for the Greens, especially as one of their members who campaigned for indy with us was also helping to elect an SNP MP in our constituency.

      No brainer for me SNP/SNP. Leave the others until Independence.

    97. Alan Crerar says:

      ….and another thing, if only ‘5-10% consider tactical voting’ how did Ian Murray get in with the Tory ‘Keep the SNP Out’ faction?

    98. TD says:

      It has to be SNP/SNP, not only because that maximises the number of pro-independence seats at Holyrood, but because the more convincing the SNP win, the more pressure we put on the pro-union parties and the UK government. The SNP triumph at the UK general election this year was important – not so much because you can do more with 56 MPs instead of 40 or 30, but because the near total annihilation of the other parties sent an important message. The unionist parties are under the cosh and that’s where we need to keep them.

      The Scottish election in 2016 is an opportunity to maintain unrelenting pressure on the UKOK gang. We must not throw that opportunity away. The best the unionists can hope for is some modest dilution of the SNP vote. We need to deny them even that crumb of comfort.

    99. Ian Brotherhood says:

      Interesting to read the last few threads, and see some regulars saying farewell, or thinking about taking time out.

      It’s fair enough, eh? Most of us only have so much to say.

      But we should remember that we have a common enemy in the BTUKOKers – they certainly won’t be forgetting about their near-death experience last September anytime soon.

      And if you know anyone who is under any illusions about who we’re going to be dealing with for the next decade if we don’t get ourselves out? just show them this – Owen Jones speaking to a splendid array of Tories at their conference. They Live!

      http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y_JDQinNE8w

    100. Alex Birnie says:

      Am I missing something? Why are you calculating nine regional seats? Aren’t there 7 seats in all 8 regions?

    101. Wuffing Dug says:

      Still Positive @ 10.41

      Am also in Dumbarton – visiting my dad this weekend.

      Good to hear things are active here.
      I live in Aberdeen now, it’s only the availability of work keeping me there though.

      Love coming back here and going walks to Overtoun etc.

      Let’s get Jackie Baillie OOT!

    102. Still Positive. says:

      Alex Birnie @10.48.

      There are 7 seats in all 8 regions. I think the 9 was constituency seats in a particular area.

      Whatever it may be SNP/ SNP.

    103. crazycat says:

      @ Alex Birnie

      There are 73 constituencies and 56 list seats, distributed among 8 regions. Each region has 7 list seats, but the number of constituencies varies (otherwise there could only be 56 constituencies too).

      South of Scotland, for instance, where I live, covers 9 constituencies.

    104. Albamac says:

      @ thomaspotter2014

      I think Spike might just want to ‘spike’ the SNP guns with his let’s split the SNP vote bullshit

      This sort of stuff has been going on for years. I’ve been arguing for Scottish independence, on the web, for almost fifteen years and there have always been groups who have tucked themselves in for an easy ride in the SNP’s slipstream until an opportunity arises to slash the leader’s tyres.

      So, I’ll be using my spare to ensure that the SNP fills the podium.

    105. @Ian Brotherhood

      Cheers for that and his last sentence should send shock waves throughout the country. Personally I don’t rate him as he is blinded by his own self importance and incapable of realistic analysis of the Labour party as it stands.

    106. David McDowell says:

      SNP/SNP

      Pass it on.

    107. Big Jock says:

      68? of 16 to 34 year olds back the SNP. That’s why the Unionists are shitting themselves.

      Remember the last Holyrood vote the sixteen year olds didn’t get the vote. The SNP secured 51% of the popular vote at Westminster without 16 and 17 yearolds.

      We don’t need a calculator to work out that the SNP could gain another 2%. If there is a manifesto commitment for a referendum and SNP get 53% plus of the vote. The SNP will call a referendum. But keep that to yourselves!

    108. Still Positive. says:

      Wuffing Dug @ 10.48.

      Jackie Baillie is the biggest scalp I want to see next May. Gail Robertson is a lovely young woman and is under no illusions but is also confident of success as her canvassing shows.

      I first met Gail at a WfI meeting about 6 months before the indyref. She works her socks off for the cause. Also met her mum today and she is just as lovely as Gail – make sure your dad votes for her.

    109. Ian Brotherhood says:

      @cynicalHighlander –

      Agreed.

      Jones is a very gifted and eloquent duude, and he’s going to be around for a very long time.

      All the more reason why he really ought to get himself up to Scotland for a while – if he cannot or will not get his head around what’s happening here then he’ll inevitably blunder off down the same dead-ends which have swallowed so many of his older comrades.

      Having said that, it was good to see him smacking McTernan’s baws recently. 🙂

    110. The leaflet is in the colours of the butchers apron. Just saying

    111. dakk says:

      Ian Brotherhood 10.45

      Ye, our own egos and sensitivities should be of no consequence in pursuit of freedom and self determination for our country.

    112. Albamac says:

      @ Free Scotland

      Or, as Ray Charles might have put it –

      Take a hike, Spike, and don’t you come back no more, no more, no more, no more.
      On yer bike, Spike, and don’t you come back no more.

    113. yesindyref2 says:

      @TheWealthofNations
      Nothing wrong with a petition for a referendum as an addition to other methods of trying to get a referendum.

      The Green party appears to want it as a replacement of the SNP-style triggers for a referendum. That’s plain bad.

      It took 2 years for the YES Declaration to be signed by over 1 million people. If you look at the UK Gov petitions website, “All petitions run for 6 months”.

    114. heedtracker says:

      Another week of Michelle Thomson monstering kicks off, Michelle Thomson ate my vulnerable family hamster, but nothings for UKOK ever

      http://www.theguardian.com/world/shortcuts/2015/oct/11/post-boxes-trams-and-other-hangovers-of-the-british-empire

      The people of New Zealand will vote next month on which of four new union jackless flags they would like best to represent their country. Next year the winner will go head-to-head in a second referendum against the old one. Canada did something similar in 1965. Those Britons who do yearn for their nation’s old influence can at least take comfort from the continuing popularity of rugby and cricket – at the price of our past colonies enjoying perpetual revenge …”

      Poor England.

    115. Valerie says:

      Well, that has cheered me a bit.

      Lady Moan is protesting she has done nothing – on some kind of tax issue! Might not be wrong, but they are saying Rangers FC utilised it.

      Just noticed Ruby posting a reference to Arden Strategies Ltd. This is the Saviour of the Unions New consultancy. Not sure what he is consulting on as yet.

    116. orri says:

      I could go out on a limb and say that I wouldn’t mind the Greens getting seats if it weren’t for the fact, not speculation, based on the distribution of regional votes at the last Holyrood election that shows us multiple scenarios where unless you can organise an exact transfer of votes based on a knowledge of the future then you most definitely risk neither the SNP or Greens getting a seat and a unionist party getting it instead.

      Not only that but even supposing it were to work then the unionists are going to leap on the fact that the SNP have less than 50% of the, supposedly, proportional part of the vote. They will ignore the fact that there was any attempt at a tacical vote and point to it as somehow indicating that there’s no overall support for the only party they will recognize as being pro-independence.

      Again from the example of Aberdeen last time it’s possible to win seats on the list when the distribution of votes is in your favour.

    117. Valerie says:

      Also, as there is chat about the Greens on this thread.

      I was VERY p’ed off at Harvie some weeks ago. He was being questioned as to why Lucas abstained (along with Labour) on the Welfare Bill, and why did she not vote against it, along with SNP.

      He got short tempered vet quickly referring to ‘SNP types’ getting angry over it, and tried to pass it off like Labour, saying Greens wouldn’t vote as didn’t agree with the Bill.

      I heard that same excuse used back in January, when there were SLab MPs, and they abstained on the fracking Bill, which passed of course.

    118. yesindyref2 says:

      OT – That’s really funny.

      Jackie Baillie has described as “really serious” a complaint to the Electoral Commission by Kevin Hague, the economics blogger and businessman who has previously claimed that BfS is a ‘front’ for the SNP. Posts on Grun as something like “chuckup” or similar, I read his website, interesting, well written letter, not so good website, but allegation clearly unfounded. Seems to think Murrell was a “shadow director” which is off at a tangent even from his own allegation of the SNP and BfS “working together”. All based on emails from Peter Murrell giving some advice. You should see the advice I get from my customers! (for which I’m grateful by the way).

      Baillie has done her credibility no good at all. Oh.

    119. Onwards says:

      “In other words, the Green policy is only to support a second referendum if enough people sign a petition for one, and if more people don’t sign a petition against it.”

      Think how easily this could be spiked.
      Signatures from the rest of the UK could easily outweigh Scottish opinion.

      So replacing SNP list MSP’s with Green list MSP’s would seem to make a second referendum LESS likely.

      I would consider voting differently after independence, but the easy way to see it is SNP*2 got us the first referendum.

    120. John Moss says:

      Oh, the lies chancers tell just to cheat their way into our parliament.

      Tommy Sheidan and his couterie are no better than the Unionists. They’ve nothing to offer.

      Time to call time on the so-called “left”.

      Better still, it’s time to tell the “left” that it’s time to leave the building.

    121. Taranaich says:

      I was an advocate of “SNP constituency, Yes Alliance on the list” idea. Then the referendum happened.

      There are still 40-50% of Scots voters who are not going to vote SNP on either list or constituency. Those are the people I think the Greens, RISE, and Solidarity should go for – the people who would not vote SNP at all, but who might vote for a Unionist party. And frankly, I’d argue their latest announcement regarding a future referendum would make them more appealing to those soft Nos, or those who don’t view independence as vital as the rest of us. Similarly, a lot of socialists still (amazingly) vote for Labour, and the tribal hatred of the SNP is too strong to overcome – they’d sooner go to RISE or Solidarity than the SNP.

      Instead of divvying up the voters we already have, we should all concentrate on getting even more people on our side. Everyone who’s already voting SNP/Green/RISE/Solidarity should just be left to it: we need to go after the people who are still, after all this, voting for Unionist parties. Not just for the benefit of pro-independence parties, but for the cause of independence itself.

    122. Chic McGregor says:

      The window of opportunity for a successful tactical (or non tactical depending on how many have voted tactically for the SNP) closed around mid July.

      From that point on Yes/Yes became the only sensible option. with fingers and everything else decidedly crossed.

      No point whatsoever in going back over the Hungarian options, Wouldov, Couldov and Shouldov.

    123. Dr Jim says:

      Just heard Ineos has bought 12 oil fields from a Russian Oligark WTF

    124. Cactus says:

      Aye, the present Scottish government gets my double vote this coming May.

      The SNP is a TLA. I wonder if it would be a good idea to start getting their proper FULL NAME into the general-speak.. say it slowly..

      Scottish’ ‘National’ ‘Party’ / ‘Scottish’ ‘National’ ‘Party’

      1) Scottish, refers to Scotland (everytime)
      2) National, refers to our land, and
      3) Let’s party 😉

      A quick-guide for new users:

      BTL = Below The Line comments
      IMHO = In My Honest / Humble Opinion
      CorpMedia = previously MSM (Main-Stream Media)
      GIRFUY = A friendly gesture (popular in Glasgow)
      TLA = Three Letter Abbreviation

      Cheers to ye Scotland and beyond.

    125. ronnie anderson says:

      Morning All
      from Sunny Salou (well it will be sunny later on)
      BrianDTT & PeteTC, Catalunya/Salire badges being well received in some places Paco at the Supermarket down the road got some & two Scottish flags,I went in last night he gave me a Catalunian flag.

      No need to put up lists of buisnesses on a banned list (thin metal plates affixted to their shops in Catalunian colours show Independnestas ).

      They hills are alive wie the sound of heavy breathing here ( we,ll get the bus or taxi next time lol)hills n me dont like each other, especialy they wans that go up the wie.

      @ Rev well done Stu Spike Spiked, but I fear it wont be the last time you have to put up the same piece again & again ( bookmark people) save Stu fae pulling his hair oot (naebody i,ll recognize him withoot his beard lol).

      See you,s all soon.

    126. Malky says:

      It’s FEWER not LESS!

    127. john king says:

      They’re agonizing about how (snigger) to bring down the (not so) flats in Glasgow, I think they should ask for President Assad’s advice He seems to have been quite successful at leveling his country!
      A couple of cruise missiles from Putin’s navy should do the trick eh?

    128. mealer says:

      Morning all.SNP twice til we get independence.The environment is in the hands of the Tories til that day.On the Greens idea about a million signatures to get a referendum,I’d like to see the idea explored further on here.On the face of it,it seems quite sensible,but if we start a petition,the unionists will also start a petition.Hundreds of thousands of people might sign both.Coercion would also be a serious concern.Think of a boss going round his factory with a clipboard asking for signatures.

    129. Ken500 says:

      The Greens are dangerous lunatics. They renege on their own policies. They cheat, steal, lie and waste £Million/Billions of public money against the majority interest and the public interest. They are dispicable. They collude with Unionist/Landowners and are funded by them.

    130. Bob Mack says:

      However you vote it must surely be SNP double.

      I have lived in Scotland all my life,but travelled extensively. I can say hand on heart ,having lived under all types of Scottish administrations that the SNP are the best of them all. They do a fine job within the constraints imposed by the UK government.

      I am not a dyed in the wool Nationalist,but rather a converted one,who has come to a researched conclusion that we would be better as a free country.The latest election gave power to a Tory brigade I cannot tolerate,and the next in 2020 already proposes a similar outcome.

      No doubt we will be pressured and pleaded with to vote for a Party with similar ideology, and indeed some of this may be duplicious to split votes. My path is clear,and until independence is achieved it will be SNP/SNP.

    131. john king says:

      Carol Kirkwood
      she of the large…eh… smile,
      waves her hand airily over central Scotland and says “northrn counties” not southrn Scotland as you would accurately describe the “region” under her dismissively waved hand,
      “northrn counties”
      seems like brigadoon has dissapeared back into the gloamin again,

      now wheres that laminated list?
      I think I might have to update it! 🙁

    132. Andrew McLean says:

      I am not sure how I will use my list vote, if my heart rules my head it will be SNP/SNP
      But if my head rules my heart it can only be SNP/SNP
      DESICIONS DECISONS?

    133. Alan Mackintosh says:

      John King, Dont think we need to get Assad’s advice on how to knock down buildings. UK and US have had much more practice in the middle east than him.

      Mealer, re your point, I do wonder where the list of all the people who signed the declaration for the Yes campaign went. That surely forms the basis of a way to gauge support. From memory, it was approaching 1.6M in Sept and we(Yes Inverness) were sending completed forms to Yes HQ all the way up to the ref. Where have all these names and addresses/emails gone?

    134. gerry parker says:

      David at 11:18pm.

      SNP/SNP

      Pass it on.

      The SNP should run a “Tell Sid” type campaign.

    135. caz-m says:

      It’s make your mind up time at Morrison’s supermarket.

      They are giving you the option of either buying their own brand, cheaper milk OR buying the more expensive milk from the local farmers.

      Who do you support?

      The supermarket who supported a NO vote OR the farmer who had the big fuck off, “VOTE NO” signs stuck in the middle of his field during the referendum campaign?

      Or you could tell the two of them to go and take a hike and just go to ALDI’S instead.

    136. Ken500 says:

      It was Tory landowners who put NO all over their fields.. Not farmers. A lot of farmers support the SNP and donate to the SNP. Farmers receive the lowest EU CAP payments as part of the UK. Scotland received a compensatory payment from the EU. Westminster took it and gave it to wealthy farmers south of the border. The Tory Minister actually said,’Better Together’ while doing it.

    137. caz-m says:

      John King

      To follow up on your BBC watch this morning John.

      We must be the only country in the world that doesn’t have it’s own morning news programme.

      We get BBC London rammed down our throats, interrupted briefly by the words,

      “Here’s the news, weather and traffic where you are, see you in a moment”.

      So the Scots, who pay the exact same licence fee as their English neighbours, get a “moment” of news.

      And that brief news bulletin is REPEATED every half hour, no updates or rebuttals, just the same words as you heard 30 minutes earlier.

      If you are still paying the BBC for this dross, then can I ask you to have another wee think about not paying it.

    138. galamcennalath says:

      Sinky says:
      “No mention of Labour MP’s Helen Goodman’s offensive tweet in MSM / BBC to-day”

      UKIP views alive and well in the Labour Party too!

      We are all to aware of the anti Scottish bias being applied across the media, but it also makes you wonder what other agendas and propaganda campaigns are being orchestrated, by whom and to what purpose?

      It seems ‘they’ want to avoid tarnishing Labour as racist.

    139. Wuffing Dug says:

      Still Positive @11.27pm

      I will try but my dad and brother are dyed in the wool rangers unionist servile ‘thatalecsammin’ types.

      Does my head in, then I have to go back to Aberdeen and deal with the cringers up there.

      Never mind, keep chipping away 🙂

    140. galamcennalath says:

      OT A very important point being made on Scot Goes Pop.

      IndyRef2 will only happen when there is a “substantial and sustained shift in public opinion”. Nicola tells us, and I accept Nicola is usually on the ball!

      However, as James Kelly points out, opinion is being measured by polls and a Yes lead may be hidden by changes in methodology.

      He goes further and suggests that this may already be happening since most pollsters are “weighting by recalled referendum vote” which reduces the level of Yes support.

      If this the technique is unfairly hitting Yes, then the true Yes support may already be higher.

    141. heedtracker says:

      Nothing about their Scotland region Graun wise as usual, except Daily Record says “Whoops apocalypse on the way” so it probably wont matter much.

      “And it also quotes Andrew Foxall, “Russia expert at the Henry Jackson Society think tank” as saying an error could lead to a “diplomatic incident of catastrophic proportions.”

      But what about the 30 seconds business, you ask? That hinges on the interpretation contained in the article’s 10th paragraph:

      “In one terrifying close call Lt Gen Charles Brown, commander of the American air campaign in Syria, said US and Russian planes came within just 20 miles of each other – which, at the speeds they travel, is as little as 30 seconds from a disastrous impact.”

      I’d reach for the tin hats now.”

      A new mutant race of UKOKists will rise from the ashes of post nuclear winter teamGB, but would anyone in Ibrox notice.

    142. Alex Birnie says:

      The illustration here is how the D’Hondt system works, but it does it for nine seats, instead of seven, as would be the case in a Holyrood election. With seven seats, the second case shows an extra seat for pro-Indy parties. This doesn’t change the main thrust of the argument, but it is inaccurate, and we shouldn’t allow enemies of independence any chance of poking holes in our argument by publishing stuff that is incorrect.

    143. Grouse Beater says:

      “True patriots are not inward looking,” says Lord Rose of his EU Yes campaign, inadvertently paying Scotland a back-handed compliment a year late.

    144. Legerwood says:

      Sinky @8.26 am

      The story about Helen Goodman’s tweet is reported in the on-line editions of the Guardian and Daily Telegraph.

    145. One_Scot says:

      One big step towards winning Independence would be for Scotland to gain control of Broadcasting, cutting out the UK propaganda.

      Does anyone know if this is on the table and if it will become a reality.

    146. kenneth armstrong says:

      just added up your figures for your list calculations it comes to 118.4 so you need to adjust your figures. just saying like

    147. Grouse Beater says:

      One Scot: Does anyone know if this is on the table?

      I’m not up to speed on plans, know only of lots of discussion on the subject. (Another poster might have better knowledge.) Great if Trump had brains instead of balls and established a Scottish media service rather than landscaping a bit of windswept Scotland for a useless golf course.

      He made enough empty noise about his ‘Scattish’ antecedents. To give something useful to one’s homeland is insightful as well as truly patriotic.

    148. Robert Kerr says:

      test

    149. Grouse Beater says:

      How I wish we could switch off England’s dirty washing as if turning off a spin dryer, and get on with wearing our own clothes.

      https://grousebeater.wordpress.com/2015/10/10/unelected-rule/

    150. Midgehunter says:

      Glasgow flats don’t take lying down. 😉

      Thank goodness it wasn’t televised live at the Commonwealth Games..!

    151. Jim Thomson says:

      O/T (slightly)

      Here’s the “generous” offer from HMG of a pension increase if someone at age 65 or older “tops up” their pension with cash:

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34489326

      Now, call me cynical or what, but, if you do the sums for the £10 per week increase you’d have to stick around for 890 weeks after giving HMG the money at age 65 (17+ yrs) or 674 weeks if you’re 75 (13+ yrs).

      Wouldn’t you be better just sticking the money in an interest earning account and just taking your £10 a week out of that?

      No idea what the current life expectancy for men/women is, but it just seems like a way of getting a quick boost into the treasury.

      Bunch of robbing chancers

    152. Jim says:

      The 2nd vote is wasted because:

      The SNP 55% 1st vote take all the constituency seats.

      Number of seats so far +1 SNP win all the constituency seats.

      2nd vote is divided by around 10 meaning 90% of vote is wasted.

      UKIP 55% of the vote is wasted.

      Only 45% of the second vote counts.

      UKIP SNP UKIP launch attacks on minority groups.
      __________________________________

      I see what they are trying to do using subliminal techniques.
      Poor, dishjointed propaganda but I’ll give 6 out of ten for effort as most people I’d imagine, will skim over
      the article and only register the bold highlights because the rest of the content is complicated and therefore extremely boring.

      SNP BAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAD.

    153. Grouse Beater says:

      The Short Walk and the Long Drop
      Newspaper sales figures since last September

      Daily Newspapers

      Independent 13% drop
      Guardian 11% drop
      Telegraph 4% drop
      Mirror 20.4% drop
      Express 12% drop
      Record 11% drop
      Star 13% drop
      Mail 5% drop
      Sun 9% drop

      SUNDAY Newspapers

      Observer 5% drop
      Sun 10% drop
      Mail 6% drop
      Mirror 26% drop
      Express 11% drop
      Telegraph 9% drop
      Times 4% drop
      Post 11% drop

      Newspapers Showing Increase

      Financial Times 3% rise
      Times 0.4% rise

      The last two must be visiting investment bankers and London-based businessmen. (Made that last bit up but bet there’s a lot of truth in it.)

    154. scotspine says:

      @ Grousebeater

      I don’t know where this place “Scatland” is that Trump refers to.

      Like his name though, it sounds shit….

      See what I did there?….

    155. Dan Huil says:

      @Grousebeater 11:24am

      Particularly pleased about the drop in sales for the Sunday Post. A creepy Uncle Tam unionist publication.

    156. Me Bungo Pony says:

      Just putting this out there. I don’t know if anyone has mentioned it previously. For the record, I intend voting SNP/SNP if the following hugely unlikely scenario does not (and it won’t) come to pass.

      If the SNP and Greens formed an electoral pact whereby the SNP only contested fptp while the Greens only stood on the list, and the electorate understood this with all SNP list votes going to the Greens, then there would be over 100 pro Indy MSPs in Holyrood. Using the recent TNS poll and the Scotland Votes site, such a scenario would result in 69 SNP and 39 Green MSPs.

      If the SNP did contest the list but half their current poll rating went to the Greens, the result “could” be 71 SNP and 30 Greens.

      In reality, any split in the SNP vote would not go entirely to the Greens and unionist parties would likely benefit too. However, at least in theory, a sizable Green vote on the lists is unlikely to hurt the SNP much and “could” increase the pro Indy contingent sizably.

      I’m still voting SNP/SNP.

    157. call me dave says:

      Scots ‘to lose hundreds of pounds as a result of Osborne’s Budget

      https://archive.is/U997b

      —————————————————————

      PS: It was acceptable in ‘context’

      Former Sun editor Kelvin MacKenzie’s Daily Politics show comment about Nicola Sturgeon will not be investigated by Ofcom.

      MacKenzie described Sturgeon as the “lady who runs Jockestan” during an appearance on the BBC2 show on September 21.

      Vote SNP X 2.

    158. Wuffing Dug says:

      Dan Huil @ 11.32

      Yes good news on Sunday Post circulation dropping.

      My parents used to buy it, yes it does have an unsettling creepiness.

      I remember it reading like a guide book for cringing fearties.

    159. Robert Peffers says:

      @galamcennalath says: 12 October, 2015 at 9:26 am:

      ” … IndyRef2 will only happen when there is a “substantial and sustained shift in public opinion”. Nicola tells us, and I accept Nicola is usually on the ball!”

      Fortunately, galamcennalath, Nicola, like her predecessors, do not base their opinions upon the media published opinion polls. The SNP have long had their own opinion assessing machinery and it has proven to be a great deal more accurate than the media published figures.

      Remember the published opinion pole companies only sample a small fraction of the public but often that fraction are signed up, (sometimes even paid), members on a list.

      Thus, after a few polls, the company knows the member’s bias. Then there are the, “random”, telephone samples but there are whole swaths of the population who do not have a landline phone, (usually poorer people), who don’t own that phone in the home, (younger family members), or those who are itinerant due to work.

      Then we have on-line polls and we all saw how Bannnockburn won a certain on-line poll. The SNP, though, get their info from very large canvass returns on the doorsteps. For some reason their canvass returns are always better than any of the other political party’s canvass returns.

    160. It has to be SNP for the constituency aa well as for the list vote.
      To place you second vote for the Greens, Scot Socialist,
      Solidarity/Hof, Rise etc.

      Will only improve the unionists prospects of being able to form an ad hoc coalition between Tories, Labour and any lib dems to thwart the implementation of SNP policies.

    161. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

      “The illustration here is how the D’Hondt system works, but it does it for nine seats, instead of seven, as would be the case in a Holyrood election.”

      Doh, that’s embarrassing. I was reading the constituencies rather than the list. However, as we now know we can’t count on the Greens to back another referendum, it’s actually slightly worse. Have edited accordingly.

    162. Robert Peffers says:

      @

    163. DerekM says:

      yea lets get indy first then we can have the first real parliament made up from all the political parties,i cant understand why a Scottish politician would not grasp this opportunity with both hands to have a free independent parliament working for the good of the country, in a collective with an engaged electorate ,its a politicians dream.

      its got to be SNP/SNP then we can sort the rest out once the dust has settled.

      This spike thing is well named ,its a pathetic attempt to spike the list vote,but nothing we didnt expect from the divide and conquer britnat loonies.

    164. Thepnr says:

      The only route available to Independence is through the SNP. If that requires an SNP/SNP vote to ensure a majority SNP government that can lead Scotland to Independence then that will do for me.

      As much as I would love to see the smaller Independence supporting parties gain more representation at Holyrood, I feel they may have to wait a bit longer. Their best chance realistically is to concentrate their efforts logistically where their support is strongest rather than fighting in all 8 regions.

      I don’t see too many SNP supporters supporting any other party in the list vote, there will be some, maybe even as much as 10% but that 10% will be spread among many parties even Unionist ones. So a split SNP vote probably wouldn’t help them too much anyway this time around.

      I also think the left should be trying to capture those that still support Labour and those that don’t vote just as RIC successfully done in the referendum campaign. There is much low hanging fruit there still to be plucked.

      The smaller parties time will come, just don’t think it will be in 2016.

    165. heedtracker says:

      Newspaper sales figures since last September

      What about Press and Journal, neo-fascist Voice of the North? Their trade mark chasing convicted benefit fraudsters, emerging from Aberdeen Sheriff court down Union Street must be worth a mention.

      They are very interested in my “bring back the stocks for benefit cheats” campaign too.

    166. Robert Peffers says:

      @Jim Thomson says: 12 October, 2015 at 11:04 am:

      “Here’s the “generous” offer from HMG of a pension increase if someone at age 65 or older “tops up” their pension with cash:

      http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-34489326

      Just another cynical Tory self-interest hit the poor to benefit the rich scheme, Jim.

      For starters, how the hell could an OAP who is already forced to choose heat or eat going to raise that contribution? It is obviously designed for those already rich.

      Then we have the well known poverty knock-on that the poorer you are the lower your lifespan. This is a real Tory, “Them and Us”, Cunning Stunt scheme. Much like all their other divisive policies.

      At basic level the situation in the current and recent UK under all Unionist Establishment governments, (started and supported by Labour), has seen the gap between the rich & poor getting ever wider.

      To put that brutally plain – it has long been official Establishment government policy to design their policies to make the rich even richer by transferring money from the poor to the rich.

      This is plain as it is quite obvious that the UK wealth has not really decreased. It is just that the rich are tying up their extra wealth in such things as off-shore bank accounts, foreign investments, often empty or rented out property, art works and so on.

      It is thus not in circulation and any increases goes the same way. They thus keep getting richer but are doing so at the expense of the poor who obviously keep getting poorer.

      The laughable claim that the Tories do this to benefit, “Hard Working Families”, is pure farce.

      Hard working families like that of, for example, Gideon Osborne. Heir apparent to two ancient Irish, (Ascendency), Baronetcies. His father, Sir Peter Osborne, 17th Baronet, co-founded the firm of fabric and wallpapers designers Osborne & Little and has expensive interests in many big companies.

    167. caz-m says:

      Grouse Beater, I thought I would add some sales figures to your percentages.

      Daily Mirror – 20.3 per cent drop = from 18,079 on average during August last year, to 14,398 last month;

      Daily Record – 10.1 per cent drop = from 203,941 on average during August last year, to 183,365 last month;

      Daily Star of Scotland – 13.2 per cent drop = 41,799 to 36,267;

      The Scottish Sun – 11.2 per cent drop = 246,066 to 218,609;

      Scottish Daily Express – 11.5 per cent drop = 48,636 to 43,032;

      Scottish Daily Mail – 3.5 per cent drop = 93,321 to 90,010;

      Daily Telegraph – 1.5 per cent drop = 18,599 to 18,314;

      Financial Times – 5.8 per cent up = 2,312 to 2,447;

      The Guardian – 9.4 per cent drop = 10,073 to 9,122;

      i – 8.8 per cent drop = 18,712 to 17,060;

      Independent – 11.6 per cent drop = 2,990 to 2,642; and

      The Times – 0.3 per cent up = 20,420 to 20,480.

      Meanwhile, the Sunday titles’ sales figures in Scotland were as follows:

      Daily Star of Scotland – Sunday – 13.3 per cent down = 23,161 to 20,071;

      The Scottish Sun – Sunday – 11.2 per cent down = 175,525 to 155,928;

      Sunday Mail – 12.5 per cent down = 231,821 to 202,922;

      Sunday Mirror – 22.9 per cent down = 18,202 to 14,032;

      The People – 21.3 per cent down = 9,678 to 7,620;

      Scottish Mail on Sunday – 7.8 per cent down = 83,079 to 76,556;

      Scottish Sunday Express – 10.2 per cent down = 28,002 to 25,152;

      The Sunday Post – 10.6 per cent down = 146,940 to 131,295;

      Independent on Sunday – 13.3 per cent down = 5,896 to 5,114;

      The Observer – 6.6 per cent down = 14,093 to 13,164;

      Sunday Telegraph – 10.2 per cent down = 16,543 to 14,855; and

      Sunday Times – 4.4 per cent down = 46,927 to 44,840.

      Source:-

      http://www.allmediascotland.com/press/107934/the-media-in-figures-national-newspaper-sales-in-scotland-7/

    168. Grouse Beater says:

      Edinburgh-born Angus Deaton (No! Not that one – he’s spelt ‘Deayton’) awarded Nobel Prize for Economic Science.

      From now on regard him as a great ‘Brit’.)

      “What we are seeing now is the result of hundreds of years of unequal development in the rich world, which has left a lot of the world behind. Those people who have been left behind want a better life, and that puts enormous pressure on the boundaries between the poor world and the rich.” Deaton

    169. galamcennalath says:

      @Robert Peffers @11:53

      Yes, SNP have private polling mechanism, as do lots of organisations. These will give a much better picture.

      However, although the SNP (and others) will be clued up about opinion, these figures won’t be published to make a case of IndyRef2.

      A case can be made if there is a substantial change in circumstances, like BritEx. That might not happen. It is just as likely to be an accumulation of lesser changes in circumstances. In which case, there will need to be widespread acceptance that IndyRef2 is warranted by public opinion, and consistent positive public polls would need to be part of the evidence.

      So yes, Nicola may well know before the rest of us that opinion supports independence. Making a public case for a referendum needs public domain evidence.

    170. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

      “just added up your figures for your list calculations it comes to 118.4 so you need to adjust your figures. just saying like”

      That’s not actually a mistake – it’s based on the 55% SNP base figure claimed by “Spike”, but we’ve distributed a third of it to the others, which accounts for the extra 18.4% (a third of 55%). Have reworded the paragraph to be a bit clearer, though.

    171. Rev. Stuart Campbell says:

      “What about Press and Journal”

      These figures are for NATIONAL papers. The P&J appears in the REGIONAL list, which comes out at a different time.

    172. galamcennalath says:

      Re newspaper withering. I don’t follow any of these comics, but I would be interested to know what the Mirror in particular has done wrong?

      When looking at these lists, it reminded of newsagents abroad who have lots of foreign papers on the racks because of holiday makers and expats. News stands in Scotland are beginning to take on that appearance with those now identifiably foreign titles from our southern neighbour.

    173. Jim McIntosh says:

      “What about the P&J?”

      P&J figures for first half of 2015 were: 58,502 daily (99.2% paid from) < 5.9% over previous 6 months.

    174. A2 says:

      Ignoring the mechanics of how you go about it, is the green stance on another referendum not pretty much the same as the SNPs? ie

      “Don’t have another referendum until you are bloody sure you can win it”

      I’m still amazed at anyone who actually supports indi advocating another ref asap regardless of what the likely result is.

    175. Craig P says:

      Spike’s leaflet is formatted like an Orange Order call to arms.

      However that doesn’t mean he’s a unionist – we’ve plenty trumpets of our own.

    176. Iain More says:

      So the Greens only want another Referendum if enough folk sign and effin petition – well eff that shit! Are they even going to extract their thumbs from their anal tracts?

    177. Jim McIntyre says:

      Personally I think we should all calm down and wait to see what’s in the manifestos, this is all just happening a wee bit too soon, concentrate on what those tory bastards down south are up to for the next few months ffs

    178. NN says:

      Expect lots of disinformation to poison the well.

    179. MJack says:

      It’s also about getting the SNP vote up to the 60% mark which gives the SNP authority to move us forward.



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