This week, in Snide Troll News, this happened:
We expect nothing but idiocy of Fraser. But Mr Torrance, who is a ubiquitous presence in the Scottish media, appears – by no means for the first time – not to have the facts at his fingertips. So let’s see if we can help him out.
The best data we have available for the demographics of voters in the indyref and in the US election are a study of the former by esteemed political scientist Prof. Ailsa Henderson of the University of Edinburgh last year, widely reported in the press, and a large exit poll for the latter conducted by Edison Research for the New York Times.
Both were scientifically-rigorous surveys with large sample sizes (almost 9,000 for the indyref one and close to 25,000 for the US one).
So let’s see if Murdo and David are right.
Ooh, not so good. Trump was well beaten in the working class vote (which in the US study we’ve taken as anyone making less than $50,000 a year), whereas the working class in Scotland was a clear Yes.
Yes voters without a degree: 47.7%
Yes voters with a degree: 47.1%
Unfortunately for our sneering Tory and his media toady, university education made almost no difference whatsoever to how likely someone was to vote for independence. In contrast, it was crucial to whether you were likely to vote for Trump, with graduates against him and non-graduates for.
So that’s one out of three, which isn’t great. (And of course, those are in any event three entirely discrete stats, from which it’s not possible to draw any valid conclusions about individuals who might or might not be in all three categories. But heck, let’s not expect any sort of journalistic standards from David Torrance if it might get in the way of some sly winding up of the Nats.)
The only thing that we can reliably say Trump voters and Yes voters have in common, then, is that they were more likely to be male than female. (The really big determining factor in voting for Trump was actually skin colour.) But what else do we know?
Prof. Henderson’s study didn’t ask about party affiliations, so we have to use another survey, this one conducted by Lord Ashcroft immediately after the referendum. And what we find is that political conservatives voted in overwhelming numbers for both No (95%) and Donald Trump (81%).
Protestants voted 58% Trump and 59.1% No, almost identical figures. Catholics were more likely to vote Clinton and (a lot) more likely to vote Yes.
Old people voted Trump and No, young people voted Clinton and Yes.
So in other words, Trump voters were vastly more likely to be Murdo Fraser’s people – old, middle class, Protestant conservatives – than independence supporters, who had much more in common with those who voted for Hillary Clinton.
(David Torrance, we’re obliged to note, denies being a Tory.)
As ever, we’re glad to help Mr Torrance out with some facts. We hope those are enough “reasons” why only a fatuous cretin would attempt to correlate Yes voters with Trump voters. If not, he can always drop us a quick line and we’ll see if we can do anything to turn him into a journalist.