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Separated at birth

Posted on October 28, 2013 by

Something that Professor John Curtice said in an extensive and fair review of our second Panelbase poll today gave us some cause for thought.

It’s hardly a secret that the No campaign has spent just about every waking hour of its existence frantically trying to turn the referendum into one on the SNP and Alex Salmond in particular (despite the seemingly counter-productive nature of the tactic).

twins

For all they’re worth, they try to present independence as being a proxy for a single political party, when in fact it’s the exact opposite – an attempt to restore Scotland to a meaningful democracy, rather than the stagnant one-party (Labour) state it’s been at every UK general election for the last 60 years.

And when we read Prof. Curtice’s article, it dawned on us that we now had the tools and the ammunition to blow that particular smear apart once and for all.

Because the poll data lets us examine the attitudes of Yes and No voters on all sorts of issues, and then compare those to the attitudes of Labour, SNP and Tory voters. (To keep the arithmetic to a minimum we’ll leave the Lib Dems out – and because as we’ve learned since 2010, they’ll believe anything from minute to minute as long as there’s a ministerial car in it.)

To illustrate, let’s look at something that’s nothing to do with independence, because all the political parties have the same policy on it regardless of whether Scotland is in or out of the UK: attitudes to the monarchy.

———————————————————-

YES VOTERS: -18 (in favour 34%, against 52%)
NO VOTERS: +51 (in favour 66%, against 17%)

YES/NO GAP: 69 points

SNP VOTERS: -2 (in favour 41%, against 43%)
LABOUR VOTERS: +13 (in favour 47%, against 34%)
TORY VOTERS: +77 (in favour 84%, against 7%)

SNP/LABOUR GAP: 15 points
SNP/TORY GAP: 79 points

———————————————————-

Labour activists constantly claim that independence is all about delivering an SNP dictatorship, yet on this subject – which isn’t even related to independence – Yes voters are nine times more republican than those backing the SNP. In fact, they’re further away from the SNP (16 points) than the SNP are from Labour (15 points). People’s views on the issue are clearly NOT being determined by blind party loyalty.

So that’s the methodology. Let’s see how some other topics shape up, picking out only ones that could be deemed to have some sort of relevance to the independence debate. (So for example we won’t bother with the question we asked about assisted suicide, because Holyrood could already legislate over that if it chose to.)

Remember, what we’re looking at is how closely the views of Yes voters tally with those of SNP voters (with Labour and Tory voters used as controls in the experiment). If they’re mostly the same or very close, “Better Together” are right and the referendum is really about the SNP. If the numbers are far apart, they’re talking cobblers.

NUCLEAR WEAPONS

Yes: -43
SNP: -30
Labour: -18
Tory: +54

Yes voters are almost 50% more opposed than SNP ones.

BEDROOM TAX

Yes: -79
SNP: -72
Labour: -72
Tory: -11

Yes voters are more opposed than Labour or the SNP, who are identical.

EU MEMBERSHIP

Yes: +4
SNP: -3
Labour: +12
Tory: -32

Yes voters are almost exactly halfway between SNP and Labour.

NATIONALISING RAILWAYS

Yes: +36
SNP: +31
Labour: +20
Tory: -10

On this subject, Yes and SNP voters are in close step.

NATO MEMBERSHIP

Yes: +41
SNP: +43
Labour: +47
Tory: +89

Yes, Labour and SNP voters all within a six-point spread.

COUNCIL TAX FREEZE

Yes: +79
SNP: +79
Labour: +63
Tory: +77

This time it’s Yes, the SNP and the Tories who are all aligned.

PRIVATISING ROYAL MAIL

Yes: -64
SNP: -63
Labour: -61
Tory: -4

Now we’re back to Yes, the SNP and Labour all spanning just three points.

NEW NUCLEAR POWER STATIONS

Yes: -9
SNP: -2
Labour: +2
Tory: +59

Again, Yes voters are further from the SNP than the SNP are from Labour.

WORKFARE

Yes: -12
SNP: +10
Labour: +18
Tory: +77

A huge difference here – all three parties pro, Yes voters against.

PREFERRING SCOTLAND INDEPENDENT OR IN UK

Yes: +81
SNP: +52
Labour: -26
Tory: -85

It’s obvious which way this one would go, but we included it anyway because the results were absolutely fascinating. 90% of Yes voters would rather Scotland was an independent nation if everything else was equal – but remarkably, 9% of people are voting Yes even though they’d really rather stay in the UK, presumably because they think it’s for the best for the country as a whole.

(The figures for SNP voters are actually less surprising – it’s long been held that many SNP voters don’t back independence, and support the party in the name of good devolved governance. Nonetheless, the size of the gap, at 20 points, is probably higher than most people would expect.)

So that seems pretty conclusive. Depending on the issue, Yes voters are most closely aligned to the SNP, Labour or the Tories, sometimes two of them, sometimes all of them and sometimes none of them (as in the case of forced labour for the unemployed, where the gap is at least 22 points).

In all but one case, though (the council tax freeze, where everyone’s agreed), what we find is that Yes voters are at the opposite end of any issue to the Tories, and often well to the left of the SNP, who on most issues are to the left of Labour.

The evidence suggests strongly that the referendum isn’t an SNP-vs-the-rest issue, but a left-vs-right one. Labour voters opposing independence on socialist grounds may want to give that one some thought.

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  1. 28 10 13 15:56

    Just another quiet week | laidbackviews
    Ignored

83 to “Separated at birth”

  1. setondene
    Ignored
    says:

    I attended Prof Curtice’s presentation to the Law Society at the SNP Conference Fringe this year.  To my mind he gave a very fair and useful summary of areas where the Yes campaign needs to focus in the next few months, based on polling evidence to date.

  2. Holebender
    Ignored
    says:

    Stu, I got to this article from your Twitter link, but it’s not listed on the WOS front page!

    I’M SURE YOU’LL HAVE NO IDEA WHAT I MEAN…

  3. AnneDon
    Ignored
    says:

    @setondene
     
    I’ve felt for some time that Prof Curtice gets unfairly treated – he can only comment on the information in front of him!

  4. Rev. Stuart Campbell
    Ignored
    says:

    “I’ve felt for some time that Prof Curtice gets unfairly treated”

    We’ve never slagged him off here, to my recollection. Some gentle mockery of his ubiquity, but I don’t think I’ve ever disputed his professionalism.

  5. Alabaman
    Ignored
    says:

    Jesus Christ Rev, (!!!!!)
    when I first started reading you site, it took me maybe five to ten minutes to read your
    article AND the comments, now such is the interest in you and your work, one hour is 
    nearly enough!,the popularity reflects the excellent work you are doing, big thank’s to you.

  6. Desimond
    Ignored
    says:

    Like the economic factors highlighted earlier, this once again highlights that the NO Campaign have nowhere to go. They are all on the right Parties who are moving even more to the Right ( or wrong!) and any counter-arguments will simply fall on deaf ears.

    The door is open Yes Campaign, mind thank Rev. Stu for lighting your way!

    Now, should the YES Campaign ask to use Suzanne Vegas “Left of Centre” as a campaign song?

    Im still saddened by SNP and Labour here:

    WORKFARE
    Yes: -12
    SNP: +10
    Labour: +18

    Mon the YES! mob

  7. TJenny
    Ignored
    says:

    O/T – and sorry Rev, for being so early into thread, but just announced on BBC that Stevie Deans has resigned from Ineos.  Will police investigation continue?

  8. Macart
    Ignored
    says:

    BOOOOOOOM.
     
    That’s the sound of the other shoe dropping squarely on BT strategy. 🙂

  9. Desimond
    Ignored
    says:

    That Suzanne Vega “Left of Centre” lyric i missed earlier, seems rather apt:

    I think that somehow
    Somewhere inside of us
    We must be similar
    If not the same
    So I continue
    To be wanting you
    Left of center
    Against the grain

  10. Patrick Roden
    Ignored
    says:

    The thing about the prof is that he loves polling data and wings is giving him loads of the kind of data that he loves.
    He won’t be able to help himself mentioning this poll for some time and deep down he must know how significant it is that people have become so sceptical of polling companies and the reporting of polls by the MSM including the profs BBC, that they have decided to crowd fund polls themselves.
    It will not be lost on the prof that the rev has done a far better job of his polls than the MSM.
    It feels soooo good to be part of this.

  11. FreddieThreepwood
    Ignored
    says:

    You just can’t leave your data alone can you? You’re like a kid with his favourite Christmas present. Now, now – put it down before you break it!

    That said, mer fascinating stuff. And can I just say in response to someone on another thread, I wouldn’t worry about the YES campaign not picking up on this or it radically altering their world view. From what I’ve heard at various meetings, these results chime pretty closely with a) where they think the real battle lines are drawn and b) how the next year will pan out in terms on moving polls.

    Onwards and upwards!

  12. Gillie
    Ignored
    says:

    There are polls, and then there are WoS polls. 
     
    Perhaps WoS should do its own brand of underwear as well.

  13. Alabaman
    Ignored
    says:

    .   last post  should have read,—-  “one hour is barely enough”

  14. Gillie
    Ignored
    says:

    BREAKING NEWS: 
    Unite official Stephen Deans resigns from Grangemouth job

  15. Bugger (the Panda)
    Ignored
    says:

    Freddie Threepwood.
    You can’t break Lego, just reassemble and reuse it.
    BtP

  16. Bugger (the Panda)
    Ignored
    says:

    Gillie
    S Deans has probably been promoted and made a full time Unite Organiser to buy his silence?
    Just wait a wee while for the swirling muck to settle and this to creep out in the public domain?

  17. Andy-B
    Ignored
    says:

    Extremely interesting Rev.
     
    Take the Tories out of the equation, and Labour are the party leaning most to the right, something we already knew.
     
    This data just add to the basis that independece, isnt all about the SNP, as you rightly stated BT are using the SNP and Alex Salmond, to push there dictatorship mis-theory.
     
    In my opinion YES will win,because Scotland has a mainly leftist/Socialist attitude to society, and SLAB and the UK Government have failed to live up to the principles, of the Scots people.

  18. Rev. Stuart Campbell
    Ignored
    says:

    “Perhaps WoS should do its own brand of underwear as well.”

    We do 😀

    http://www.cafepress.com/wingsoverscotlandmegastore

    (I think, anyway. There are definitely pyjamas in there.)

  19. Ian Brotherhood
    Ignored
    says:

    WoS fleece-lined onesies (with detachable wings) will be de rigeur next season.

  20. Robert McDonald
    Ignored
    says:

    For me some of the biggest eye openers mentioned by the Prof were
    “It is doubtful whether any newspaper or even broadcaster could afford so large a project nowadays.”
    Kudos to the Rev (and us I guess!) and his crowd funding projects.
    Acting in the best interests of the Scottish people“: (for to against)
    Johann Lamont, 7% to 28%.”
    You have to expect DC’s result but, dearie, dearie me, Johann! Whit a shocker.
     
    Looks to me like there’s a guid few folks looking for the real Scottish Labour Party to emerge and I think it’s the only hope for salvation in Scotland for a party of that name to swing fully behind independence.

  21. Andy-B
    Ignored
    says:

    O/T  I do apologise.
     
    Scotland will have its own Internet Exchange Point (IXP), which will speed up traffic and reduce internet lag time by up to 75%.
     
    Currently Scotlands internet traffic mostly goes through London, Leeds and Manchester, which slows times down considerably.
     
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-24712749

  22. TheGreatBaldo
    Ignored
    says:

    BREAKING NEWS: 
    Unite official Stephen Deans resigns from Grangemouth job
     
    Presumably because if the emails were made public it would have been highly embarrassing for both Labour & Unite.
     
    Now nobody will see them….unless INEOS leaks them

  23. Linda's Back
    Ignored
    says:

     Macwhirter on Grangemouth this morning he interrupts in exasperation.2hrs 10min in ‘Super Salmond’. & Lamont silent and she’s in UNITE.http://www.bbc.co.uk/…/b03dwp9b

  24. desimond
    Ignored
    says:

    Perhaps WoS should do its own brand of underwear as well.”
    We do 
    http://www.cafepress.com/wingsoverscotlandmegastore
    (I think, anyway. There are definitely pyjamas in there.)

    I love how we have to choose GBP 🙂

  25. alexicon
    Ignored
    says:

    Sorry for the O/T on this excellent analyst.
     
    I don’t know if this is an old story to most on here, but I’ve just come across it and it pretty much says everything we already now.
     
    From the Japanes Times and its worth passing around.
     
    “Scots have nothing to lose going the ‘indy’ route”
     
    http://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2013/03/22/commentary/scots-have-nothing-to-lose-going-the-indy-route/

  26. ronald alexander mcdonald
    Ignored
    says:

    Yep left v right is a pretty accurate statement in my opinion.
    Hence why the biggest opponents (by no means all) are Tory right wing rags such as The Scotsman, Telegraph, Mail and Express.
     

  27. Jamie Arriere
    Ignored
    says:

    Just began reading Prof Curtice’s review and this sentence leaps out at me right at the start :
     
    “it is one of the largest commercial public opinion polls to have been conducted in Scotland in recent years”
     

    Isn’t that an indictment on the current media and its political analysis of Scotland in this most momentous of years. I am just blown away by the strength of that almost grateful statement, and explains why journalism in Scotland is at such a low ebb.
     
    Wow!! And I was actually worried that the sample size might have been a bit small.

  28. Robert Louis
    Ignored
    says:

    All of this data, is truly magnificent work.  Well done RevStu.
     
    As regards the points made above, I have often wondered what on earth could possess any labourite in the Holyrood branch of the Labour party to be opposed to independence.  Just consider, the polling evidence above, shows that YES voters are the natural left wing demographic – the kind of people who in an independent Scotland might well choose to elect Labour in some form or other.
     
    Much as I ridicule the Holyrood Labour ‘front bench’, as they so rightly deserve, it seems odd that not one of them has considered that in an independent Scotland, there would be REAL potential for a re-birth of the Labour party in Scotland, as a truly separate party, with its own executive committee, spin doctors and spivs.  They could have a REAL leader, instead of somebody dancing to London Labour’s tune.
     
    The other important point from the polling data, is that it confirms what many including myself have found, which is that undecided people are easily persuaded to vote YES.  It is like they are ,merely waiting on somebody to tell them, ‘yeah, you are correct, Scotland would be better off running its own affairs’.  The real test is getting enough people to do the donkey work, converting people, and spreading the facts.  The more people we have doing that the better.
     
    This is definitely winnable, but it will take all of us to achieve it, but a swing of 4% is not so hard to achieve.
     
    As a final point, I’d echo what I saw some people writing yesterday, in that the Scottish Government white paper on independence, whilst important, is NOT a magic bullet.  It will be important, and useful, but as we all fully expect, it will be rubbished by the Westminster state propaganda mouthpiece (the BBC) and the other English owned ‘Scottish’ media  the day it is released.

  29. Yesitis
    Ignored
    says:

    Absolutely fascinating stuff, Rev.  These have been an intriguing last few days. Thanks so much for putting in the hours for this, it is much appreciated.

  30. call me dave
    Ignored
    says:

    Robert Louis
    Blether with Brian has a stab at explaining the white paper (short paragraph on Grangemouth to get through first though)
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-24711635

  31. Luigi
    Ignored
    says:

    Unite official Stephen Deans resigns from Grangemouth job
     

    Presumably because if the emails were made public it would have been highly embarrassing for both Labour & Unite.
     
    Now nobody will see them….unless INEOS leaks them
     
    I wonder who “persuaded” him to go?

  32. call me dave
    Ignored
    says:

    BBC Radio Scotland via Douglas Fraser laying down a marker re: Value of how much oil is left and what is it worth?  Hardly worth starting an oil fund apparently.
     
    More in the main edition starting at 17:00hrs 

  33. Bill C
    Ignored
    says:

    “The evidence suggests strongly that the referendum isn’t an SNP-vs-the-rest issue, but a left-vs-right one. Labour voters opposing independence on socialist grounds may want to give that one some thought.”
    As a socialist I reached a similar conclusion over 40 years ago. There is absolutely no chance of a socially just, democratic UK. The ruling classes/British Establishment/upper classes/ruling elite; whatever you want to call them, have always ensured that us, the punters, are just given enough to stave off revolution. The Brit. Establishment learned a lot from the French and Russian Revolutions. Don’t starve them, just ‘let them eat cake’. Vote YES for a democratic,socially just, nuclear free Scotland.

  34. HandandShrimp
    Ignored
    says:

    I think the icing on the cake for Prof Curtice is all the social attitude stuff which he has a particular interest in and which a lot of other polls don’t gather.
     
    On Deans, I thought Ineos had given the Times a sneaky peak at the emails or did I just dream that?

  35. handclapping
    Ignored
    says:

    I just love the WoS unisex knickers (for those with no balls) available only in BT brown camouflage. Good to see the new colourway of brickdust will be available shortly and all for £10 the pair with a free cookbook thrown in.
    Lovely Jubbly

  36. Gillie
    Ignored
    says:

    Labour MP Michael Connarty said Mr Deans had been the ”subject of victimisation”.
     
    However;
     
    A Labour Party spokesperson said: “This is a matter between Stevie Deans and Ineos.”
     
    It seems that Deans is being set up as the fall guy in all this. Is he stupid enough to let that happen? 

  37. HandandShrimp
    Ignored
    says:

    I’m fully expecting the usual onslaught of BT seeded stories in the BBC and press on the 26th Nov along with a couple of polls showing 136% of Scottish voters think Eck is a skinny fat git.
     
    Also one must hope that there is a well written and concise summary of the white paper for those who go weak at the knees (not the nice fuzzy way) at the thought of 600 pages of civil service prose.

  38. Archie [not Erchie]
    Ignored
    says:

    @ Rev – That was a wise decision to coopt Professor James Mitchell, Edinburgh University to run his eye over the questions. I do believe this allowed Professor Curtice to express himself more freely. And he did.

  39. desimond
    Ignored
    says:

    @Gillie

    Mr Deans had 24 years service!…there must be a sweetener coming his way from someone for this one! Lets hope its from the Daily Record exposing everyones role in this disgrace

  40. Papadocx
    Ignored
    says:

    Wonder if mr. Deans will be able to find work? Sure something will turn up. 
     

  41. Bugger (the Panda)
    Ignored
    says:

    Papdocx
    See my post above. Follow the Panda’s Nose

  42. handclapping
    Ignored
    says:

    @HandandShrimp
     
    600 pages, chicken feed! Today’s accountants think nothing of tackling the more than 6 foot high pile of deathless civil service prose setting out the UK tax system.
     
    Maybe that’s why there are more members of the general public than accountants 🙁

  43. schrodingers cat
    Ignored
    says:

    sorry rev OT
    “Documents were handed into Falkirk Police Station and will be passed to our electronic crime unit for examination.”
     
    does this mean they are in the public domain and can we get access to them ? or b.does anyone know anyone who works for falkirk constabulary?
     

  44. gordoz
    Ignored
    says:

    MSM or Labour will provide us with a leaked version of the White Paper a week beforehand anyway.

  45. Craig M
    Ignored
    says:

    Re Robert Louis
    I have often wondered……are the natural left etc
    The answer to your question is easy. The Labour members of the Scottish Parliament are Right Wing ideologues. Simple really.

  46. call me dave
    Ignored
    says:

    schrodingers
    BBC seem to be able to access these things from polis  . .,.Mrs Sheridan 

  47. velofello
    Ignored
    says:

    Well Rev., you really have played a stoater with this poll. Prof Mitchell to advise, Prof Curtice to munch happily on the data. And for we Yes campaigners, great indicators of where to target our efforts. Lets get visible folks, buy and wear badges, hats,jackets, pyjamas(!). And lets hear it for Yes bikinis – thinking of stoaters again.
    Crowdfund another poll? I can’t see it being a problem. Well done.

  48. Robbie
    Ignored
    says:

    Will Deans spill the beans, was he following wee krankie,s orders?

  49. david
    Ignored
    says:

    o/t. if anyone would like their intelligence insulted, i suggest a watch of the scottish affairs commitee on bbc parliament. the nice set up questions to scare us. i hate these people.

  50. Papadocx
    Ignored
    says:

    New third question for referendum: will we just let unite Falkirk branch run the country?
     

  51. Bugger (the Panda)
    Ignored
    says:

    Robbie
    Deans has been bought off, a full time position in Unite but not made public until the shitfest dies down.
    The question is, will Ineos pass the e-mails to the SNP to be used when necessary?

  52. gerry parker
    Ignored
    says:

    @Gordoz.
    I think the SG should send Stu a copy a week in advance of its release.
    g.p

  53. Bugger (the Panda)
    Ignored
    says:

    to late to edit in at 5:56 above
    Wee Crankie couldn’t order a Pizza without calling Ed on the big red Batfone

  54. Another London Dividend
    Ignored
    says:

    Surely STV gots their facts wrong as it was because Stephen Deans was apparently using company resources on LABOUR party business not Union business which he was perfectly entitled to do as the full time Union rep albeit paid for by the company. 

  55. schrodingers cat
    Ignored
    says:

    Bugger (the Panda) says:
    28 October, 2013 at 5:56 pm

    Robbie
    Deans has been bought off, a full time position in Unite but not made public until the shitfest dies down.
    The question is, will Ineos pass the e-mails to the SNP to be used when necessary?
    bugger the snp, how do i get a copy??

  56. Jon D
    Ignored
    says:

     @velofello
    High Vis Scottish mankini duly delivered today.
    Canvassing – bring it on.
    It’s in the Bag…….erm, I’ll get my coat. (I’ll need it)
    http://www.clothestopose.co.uk/ekmps/shops/clarke/images/scottish-thistle-mankini-107-p.jpg

  57. Bugger (the Panda)
    Ignored
    says:

    I suspect that the Times already has a copy of all them and maybe you should ask the Editor, by way of a very nice e-mail, to release them, in the aim of political justice and public interest, unless they could be used in a criminal legal action?

  58. JLT
    Ignored
    says:

    What the above stats tell me, seem to also be in line with what happened at the Clydebank TUC. From what I could make out at that conference, the people seemed to have an idea of what the main policies of the nation should be, and whether you voted Labour, Communist or SNP, they more or less sang from the same hymn sheet. That …is rather incredible in Scottish politics!
     
    You only have to look what happened to Sarwar and the other Labour boy, when they continually attacked the SNP. They were shouted down; even by their own supporters.
     
    There is definitely a wind of change blowing through Scotland. I believe now that there are many people across all divides who want a change, and slowly, but surely, they can see that only independence can deliver it.

  59. Andy-B
    Ignored
    says:

    O/T
     
    I see the Westminster Gym has to get an upgrade, to the tune £250.000 of taxpayers money,to install,all the latest mod-cons.
     
    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2013/10/27/westminster-gym-upgrade-_n_4167788.html

  60. Archie [not Erchie]
    Ignored
    says:

    @ Jon D – Do they come in bigger sizes? 🙂
     

  61. ronnie anderson
    Ignored
    says:

    G/ mouth workers BETRAYED / ALL THE PEOPLE RELIENT ON G/M BETRAYED PEOPLE OF SCOTLAND LIED TO BY DEANS / UNITE / SLAB  Yes a deal done on DEANS so expect more lies on the E MAILS = 1000  i ll be 1- 2 by the end of this WAGONS in a CIRCLE the UNION / SLAB under attack fae the wee arra people am chuckin spears no arras

  62. JLT
    Ignored
    says:

    Alexicon
    Thanks for the Japanese Newspaper clippings. I have started copying these into Word documents, and then taking them into the work with me. The more folk see what the rest of the world is saying, the better!
     
    Cheers again.

  63. schrodingers cat
    Ignored
    says:

    SCOTLAND LIED TO BY DEANS / UNITE / SLAB………and the BETTER TOGETHER camp…..lets not forget folks

  64. tornface
    Ignored
    says:

    Undecided lefties should read this

    http://marksimonfrankland.blogspot.co.uk/2013/10/scared.html?m=1
     
    Heartbreaking

  65. ronnie anderson
    Ignored
    says:

    SOS REV CONGRATS FUR AW THAT READIN MATTER AH THINK YOU LL BE GITTIN A WEE PRESENT FAE ME

  66. Jon D
    Ignored
    says:

    @Archie (not Erchie) says
    You may consider these suitably appropriate..
    http://www.ecouterre.com/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/pants-to-poverty-guiness-world-records-2-537×402.jpg

  67. callum
    Ignored
    says:

    was that John McKay on the STV (Glasgow) news make a reference to this poll?

  68. Jingly Jangly
    Ignored
    says:

    O/T Headlines on Reporting Scotchland saying that Deans was suspended for carrying out Union Business on Company Time, at least the report states that he was suspended for carrying out Labour party business in company time, he was a full time union official at Grangemount paid for by Ineos, therefore the BBC are deliberately mudding the waters.

  69. lumilumi
    Ignored
    says:

    WOW! Just got back to my computer a couple of hours ago, and what a staggering amont of info!
     
    A big thank you, Rev, in all your effort in not only designing the poll but also in analysing the results in such an informative way! And a big thank you also to all the WoS folk who made it possible! I’ll have to go back and reread everything and digest it all but a few things that immediately struck me…
     
    The YES/NO gap is narrowing and tthe DKs are just waiting to be persuaded. The poll provides a lot of information on their attitudes and concerns, so it’ll be invaluable for every Yes campaigner.
     
    On the main reasons on deciding vote, the “Ensuring Scotland always gets the government it votes for” option is slightly misleading. Some of the respondents might’ve been thinking of Holyrood. Scotland does, indeed, always get the devloved governments it votes for. I don’t know how to improve the question, replacing “always” with “only” might be considered a bit biased? (Or, indeed, “Ensuring Scotland never gets a government it didn’t vote for”)
     
    Young people… Shocking numbers, at first glance, but I’m not too worried about that. Many 18-24s are just not interested in boring things like politics (I know I wasn’t at that age!). But many are also ready to change their mind once they get more info and become engaged. Some are always going to be voting No, and some will not become engaged and won’t vote. It is not a very wide electoral base, anyway, though every vote counts. I’m far more concerned about the female vote.
     
    The workfare question… Depressing figures, at first glance, but then, many might’ve been thinking of “the workshy dole dodger” so eagerly portrayed by many of the MSM (Daily Mail, I’m looking especially at you!). That is, the respondents haven’t really thought it through and realised alll the implications, e.g. big companies shedding jobs and then replacing them with free labour (for them) at the taxpayers’ expense.
     
    The one I really liked was the 3% of YES voters who do not think Scotland would be a successful independent country! Now, that’s what I call a real die-hard independista! 😀

  70. Morag
    Ignored
    says:

    therefore the BBC are deliberately mudding the waters.

    I don’t know that we can be sure it’s deliberate, but if it’s not it’s grossly incompetent.

  71. TJenny
    Ignored
    says:

    Scotland Tonight will be referencing our WoS poll results tonight, allegedly without Prof Curtice.

  72. MochaChoca
    Ignored
    says:

    @Another London Dividend

    Surely STV gots their facts wrong as it was because Stephen Deans was apparently using company resources on LABOUR party business not Union business which he was perfectly entitled to do as the full time Union rep albeit paid for by the company.

    And the BBC made exactly the same mistake in their bulletin…… strange huh?

    edit: twice actually, at the start of the report and then in the summary….

  73. kininvie
    Ignored
    says:

    @ tornface
    Thank you for linking to that blog.
    That’s powerful writing, but so awful…  Everyone should read it. I’ll push it out on Twitter, and use it as best I can.

  74. lumilumi
    Ignored
    says:

    tornface@ 6.24
     
    Thanks for the link. It truly is heartbreaking. A result of the past 30+ years of right-wing Westmister rule. I’m glad the writer is now saying that the only way to try to solve these kinds of problems in Scotland is to have independence.

  75. Alan Gerrish
    Ignored
    says:

    So, whadda we need? We need converts from the Labour Party (LPIS) ….now!
    And so, how’s about the Rev sending a copy of the results, including commentary , to every single LPIS  MSP…now! I’ll pay for the admin costs, Rev; another wee token on its way.
    ps  maybe every MSP should get it?

  76. dadsarmy
    Ignored
    says:

    Curtice has improved, he’s learnt his craft on the Referendum. I think before he had some inbuilt notions though, much the same as many residents of Scotland (and rUK).

  77. G H Graham
    Ignored
    says:

    Stairheid (Yer candidate fer First Minstrel fer Scotland, right Mac) says …
     
    So whit yer sayin is complicaytet an’ wurr no clever enuff anyway fer running stuff oorsels. Wurr backin’ David Cameroon coz yoos are basically a’ talkin pish an’ urr refusing tae hae an adult debate an’ ‘at.
     
    Right, am aff tae shave ma chin fer Tuesday’s TV rammy wi skinny Eck.

  78. Shinty
    Ignored
    says:

    G H Graham
    “Right, am aff tae shave ma chin fer Tuesday’s TV rammy wi skinny Eck.”
     
    Thanks for that 🙂

  79. Ken500
    Ignored
    says:

    Deans will be well looked after by the Labour Mafia, keep it all in the family. A few back hander and get out of jail free card. A few foo parcels along the way. Union leaders like Grangemouth workers are NOT on the minimum wage. A Unit rep defending crooks. The Unions fund the Labour Party. The Unions fund illegal wars and banking fraud causing poverty and deprivation worldwide. All in it together.

    The e-mails only being made public and the ‘something for nothing’, put up the Council tax (to put more people in poverty) revelations only surfaced after the Dunfermline Election. Another Clone elected by lies.

    The Lamentable Plan to tranfer £Billions of Scottish taxes to the UK Exchequer to pay for Trident, illegal wars,redundant, mass tax evasion, banking fraud, loan repayments on monies Scotland didn’t borrow or spend. Then put up council tax, a non progressive tax,to put more folk in debt in Scotland.

  80. Ken500
    Ignored
    says:

    A Unite (Union?) Rep went on TV and was untruthful, about the happening in Falkirk. A Unite Rep was in denial last week. The BBC reporting is crap.

    Illegal external influence was put on the Grangemouth by-election, by the Unions (Vote Labour) and Better Together (Vote Unionist) e-mails. Another clone was elected by Unionist manipulation.

    All good social/employment Laws come from the EU.

  81. Kenny Campbell
    Ignored
    says:

    As a FT Union official he is entitled to do union business but I can only think the issue is that the Union business was unconnected with the operation he was employed in. Its not really clear from the TV coverage.

  82. End of daze
    Ignored
    says:

    The left are more intelligent politically, but we still need the slower ones to gain a majority for the YES campaign!

  83. End of daze
    Ignored
    says:

    I still feel sad for Deans. Even if he hated us SNP types it is not nice to see him crucified in the Tory press!



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