Nothing ever changes
We’ve read a lot in the past few days about how referendum polling basically hasn’t moved at all this year. But we weren’t sure if that was really true. So with nine months to go, it seemed a reasonable idea to check the stats for the LAST nine months and see if any progress was being made.
We split those nine months into three groups and averaged out all the polls on the “Should Scotland be an independent country?” question in each three-month period, to give us as good a spread of stats from different polling companies as possible.
APRIL/MAY/JUNE
Yes 30
No 55
Don’t know 15
JULY/AUGUST/SEPTEMBER
Yes 33
No 55
Don’t know 12
OCTOBER/NOVEMBER/DECEMBER
Yes 30
No 47
Don’t know 23
Alert readers will have deduced that the No camp’s average lead in the first trimester was 25 points, in the second it was 22 points, and in the third just 17 points. In other words, the Union has shed almost a third of its lead in nine months.
The loyal defenders of the Union will doubtless observe that eight points in nine months isn’t enough for Yes to overtake, especially as so far the drift has been towards Don’t Know rather than Yes. But they’ll also have noticed that the speed of the drift is accelerating (three points from June to September, five points from October to December). And polling also suggests that “Don’t knows” lean heavily towards Yes, typically by a margin of at least two to one.
Add all that up and the Yes campaign still has a tough job to do. But those numbers don’t look like stasis to us, they look like momentum. The gap is closing, and it’s closing faster all the time. The most recent data (from TNS-BMRB, usually not a very Yes-friendly pollster) reduced that 17-point gap to 14, and with people just beginning to digest the White Paper, the No camp’s stalling over any coherent alternative offer is starting to look a little suspicious to voters.
(As are Labour’s credibility as a potential electable UK government and the prospects for Scotland’s future funding in the shape of the Barnett Formula.)
It’s all to play for.
You and Prof Poultice singing from the same hymn sheet? Shurely shome mishtake!
“You and Prof Poultice singing from the same hymn sheet?”
We are? As far as I know his view is “no change”.
Professor Curtice was still chanting the “no change” mantra in his recent Herald piece, but that was presumably written before one or two of the latest polls, because on his blog he finally seems to have changed his tune (if only slightly).
Whenever you see a poll with a change of the vote of 3% or less, people, even including the pollster recently, will say “it’s within the margin of error”. Well, that’s a load of rubbish. Say it was 27% YES and is now 30%, the 3% “margin of error” or range when related to the overall population, means that the value could be within a range from 27% to 33%, at a 95% confidence level. In other words there is a 95% probability that the actual value if related to all voters, will be within 3% either side.
Visualise Ben More which is fairly even and rounded at the top, with gentle slopes lower down. This is basically what the “Normal distribution” beloved and rightly so by statisticians, looks like. Then visualise 95% of the area of the hill looking from one side. That represents a 95% confidence interval in statistics. But the hill is still 3.852 feet high, though the 95% points are less high. Statisticians like to look at 95% or even 99% confidence intervals, though there’s a 5% or 1% chance the value could be totally wrong.
The plain fact of the matter though is that the value of the percentage of pollees voting YES had changed from 27% to 30% in my example, and let no Unionist contradict that.
” . . with people just beginning to digest the White Paper, the No camp’s stalling over any coherent alternative offer is starting to look a little suspicious to voters.”
This, I have to say, is the bit that worries me. If BT become seriously concerned about the polls, expect ‘Devo-Max’ promises to begin appearing around March and muddying the voting waters.
Though you and I know these will never be followed through, it has the potential to sway a lot of undecideds to vote No in the hope they will be.
“This, I have to say, is the bit that worries me. If BT become seriously concerned about the polls, expect ‘Devo-Max’ promises to begin appearing around March and muddying the voting waters.”
I’m not very fussed about that. I simply can’t see Labour coming out with anything meaningful, because it would enrage the UK party too much. And as the year goes on I think the chances of Labour winning in 2015 anyway will have visibly disintegrated.
Dougie Alexander’s already let the cat out of the bag, remember – Labour’s plan is another TEN YEARS of talking about it, not doing anything.
Quite a conservative take on things Rev. Which is fine (I’m guilty of not putting together anything yet).
Underlying it’s much better than that. We must be very close to 4/10 parity that typified ‘quiet’ periods historically going back to the start of devolution. And that’s with any remaining shy yes / soft No.
Once No starts to drop into the high 30’s and Yes edges towards mind 40’s, which is where we should be as we approach next summer, then we’ll be set.
I predict >60% Yes on the day as low end. Something largely matching Q2 1997 is most likely with Up to 70% Yes possible.
Oh and readers. If you are polled; tell the truth please. I know some of you are lying. I can see it clearly in your answers to other questions.
Remember, Santa’s watching.
REV, Oh what a friend you have in Curtice more reason to cast aside,here you have many friends to be by your side,were on the sunny side of the street , no under the darkest cloud,awe Rev dont forsake us, our sins you have to bare,our clouds got GOLDEN lining, noo were awe BETTER THERE
I still believe that the ‘Yes’ vote is around the 40% mark. The only place I have found ‘No’ to have some sort of strength is within the Financial Institutions of Edinburgh. Go to the less affluent areas within Edinburgh, and I think you get a very different picture. The minute you enter places such as West Lothian, then I find the ‘Yes’ vote also does pretty well.
From what I can see, as the austerity measures kick in, the creeping line of austerity rises all the time. The more people find that line creeping ever closer to the line of monthly financial stability (where the mortgage and bills are paid, food is bought, etc), then people begin to have doubts about the union. How can you back something, when it is kicking you constantly in the teeth?
The more Osborne batters into the poor and middle classes, the more people will get angry, and begin to look at the alternatives. For as long as Osborne continues to turn the screw, it will do three things which benefit the ‘Yes’ camp.
Firstly, it pushes people who are close to the austerity, but also don’t knowers, right into the ‘Yes’ camp. They may not say ‘Yes” now, but when the moment comes on Sept 18th 2014, they will ask the question …’what have I got to lose? I’m losing everything at this point anyway, so **** it! Yes!’
Secondly, it takes those who have had no interest in the debate, to suddenly jump up in fright as they begin to realise that the austerity creeping line gets closer to the comfort of their own finances. There are two people that I know, who really didn’t care about the referendum, and would probably not vote. Now though …they ask, ‘Aye, but what will happen in an indy-Scotland?’ They have gone from ‘don’t care’ to now asking questions. That can only mean they are creeping slowly towards ‘Yes’.
Thirdly, it might just be the thing to shake those out of their ‘union comfort zone’ and get them to look at the facts of this debate. If the union treats you like crap, then you begin to frown at it. That’s good. It gets people to look a little deeper.
To me, the Tories will be the deciding factor in this referendum. For as long as they continue to be nasty, insidious, greedy bastards, and continue to reward London with fancy airports, fountains, and bridges, while awarding bankers with massive bonuses, then the ‘No’ voters will slowly continue to get upset, and thus, begin to look at the alternatives.
I went back and looked again at the Prof’s latest
http://blog.whatscotlandthinks.org/2013/12/santa-brings-yes-a-little-present/
and I read it as him following JMK’s dictum of when the facts change I change my mind.
OT
Does anybody understand what the first BTL poster is on about the DKs being the equivalent of Labours 5 point lead in the GE race?
If BT become seriously concerned about the polls, expect ‘Devo-Max’ promises to begin appearing around March and muddying the voting waters
I don’t…..hard to see how Labour can offer anything that hasn’t already been offered by the White Paper….and even that is predicated on Labour winning power in 2015.
Only way they can top it is if all 3 Unionist came up with an agreed White Paper of their own (as hinted at by Willie Rennie)….but it’s hard to see them coming up with a detailed & alternative White Paper when they are already jockeying for position in 2015
handclapping
It means a very soft vote that disappears once the election is near polling day. The governing party gathering support during the campaign.
Devo-Max will NOT be on the table at any point. To surrender the oil money, the whisky money, and god knows what else to Scotland, it will only enrage the people of England further. They will look upon the Scots as really …really …greedy soan-soas. In fact, it would not surprise me that such a scenario might lead to the English demanding an end to the union!
But, when you have had the media and the unionist parties lying through their teeth, and telling everyone for literally 3 decades that the Scots are subsidy-junkies, then it’s a hard one for all of them to dig themselves out of.
Damned if you do, and damned if you don’t! That’s the problem facing the Unionist Parties if it begins to go wrong in the polls. Give us Devo-Max …they get slaughtered by the rUK. Don’t give us Devo-Max …then the Scots walk away with everything anyway.
I’d say the reason for the falling NOs becoming Don’t Knows is due to the inherent canniness of Scots. Choosing the Devil you know rather than risk change is likely to be a factor in this. We have to point out that the status quo is over and it is only by choosing YES can the financial future be brought under our own wing.
As an aside, why is having political self determination a bad thing for Scots – yet good for England?
@ Colin Dunn …. A sub standard Devo Max offer will rear its head rather earlier than you think.
According to a well known LibDem politician in his local, expect to see an ‘offer’ in January / Feb
@Marcia
Thank you. That is probably about right. It also makes sense of her last bit about the AV referendum being too clear cut / banal i.e. there is so much more doubt about the “proper” answer to this referendum. It may not be exactly what she meant but your take makes a lot of sense.
@Ericmac@
“A sub standard Devo Max offer will rear its head rather earlier than you think.
According to a well known LibDem politician in his local, expect to see an ‘offer’ in January / Feb”
not surprised. I’ve heard rumours, but no-one pays any attention to the LibDems. I expect ‘serious’ devo offers a liitle later. Not really Devo-Max, but close enough to tempt some wobbly undecideds, I think.
So many folk thought they were NOs, have now realised there is a choice to be made and are now ‘don’t knows’. Wonder how many more who have so far ticked the default option are still to actually start thinking about it?
I think there will be growing momentum from spring, this would stem from a number of things, continued austerity, growth of food banks, poverty becoming more severe.
All this will have people who perhaps would have voted no becoming converts, this will not be just the worst off, but also a lot of the better, off who empathise with those who are struggling, there but for the grace of god, sort of thing.
I also think that BT will, offer the world, they will not actually do anything, just vague promises but will stall a few with the help of hype from the BBC/STV and all the MSM, it will not be pretty, but common sense will prevail as they realise it is all smoke and mirrors.
Then YES will up their game as we come closer, some heavyweight BT and sympathisers will end up in serious debate but will be seen unable to answer the questions in debate with any genuine answers.
People will see it and hear it, because as we know, it is not the messenger, it is the message. All this I feel sure will happen and bring about a YES bang on time.
If Scottish people were inherently canny then the vast majority could see through the lies and bullshit we have been fed for decades. The fact that only about 1 in 3 to 4 people actively support independence is embarrassing and shows the extent of political unawareness that exists in this country. The fact that the people of Dunfermline have voted in Cara Hilton shows we aren’t a canny bunch but an easily manipulated one just like any other population.
Lets not kid ourselves if the media was impartial and told the truth it would be about 70-80% yes, in fact we would have been independent decades ago. We can only hope that when people listen to the arguments like various debates there is a huge change in opinion to yes because the unionists have absolutely zero argument other than British Nationalism and fear of change,
Carwyn Jones (Labour Party) , the Welsh First Minister knows what is going to happen after a NO Vote.
He has been promised more tax raising powers if he falls in line with UK government policy of “overhauling” the Barnett Formula.
http://www.scotsman.com/news/uk/welsh-first-minister-urges-barnett-formula-rethink-1-3170833
So we have English Tories, English Lib/Dems and the Welsh Labour Party all colluding to cut Scotland’s budget by a massive £4Billion pounds a year.
The Scottish Unionist parties seem perfectly happy to go
along with this.
As the song tells us “We gotta get out of this place”.
Having followed the independence trail thus far, I find it difficult to see how Alistair Darling and his Better Thegether pranksters can have ANY percentages in ANY poll EVER!
If BT are ahead in the polls I’m a monkeys’ uncle – one really does have to question the integrity of these pollsters.
Re the likelihood of the Unionist parties being able to agree on a Devo-Max offer:
‘…The one thing that unites Better Together is opposition to independence; otherwise there are pretty fundamental disagreements within our ranks.’ – Ian Smart, Newsnight Scotland, 19 December 2013.
Better Together campaign contains ‘pretty fundamental disagreements’…I wonder why we aren’t seeing any headlines like that screaming at us. They should be.
I said it before.
http://newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-opinion/8258-uk-polling-induces-deep-scepticism
@BertieK – what you have to remember is that the mainstream media in Scotland never pick up BT on their inconsistencies, never question Lamont on her stupidity, and won’t publicise any of their cock-ups, whereas indy supporters are treated like “loony lefties” were by The Sun in the 1980s, ie, a mixture of denigration and invention. And the mainstream media is all most people see!
So, yes, I wish people would wake up and see thru’ them. But now, as Newsnet Scotland points out today, Citizen Journalists (previously Internet Bampots) are being denigrated by BT!
macdoc says: – …Lets not kid ourselves if the media was impartial and told the truth it would be about 70-80% yes, in fact we would have been independent decades ago’….. which raises a very telling aspect of the power base in this country and I don’t mean only Scotland.
Let’s nail the buggers properly, call a spade a spade and be enormously affronted that we are being shoveled this crap constantly.
Is Scotland our country or not? Get angry folks!
Although there is a worry that the three parties in the unionist camp will try and promote “Jam-Tomorrow” before the referendum next year they are all hamstrung by one big problem. This problem is the issue of fiscal equality across the UK where no region can get more money or resources than any other.
Barnett does this only because it’s using an outdated population model that the Westminster government is too scared to change before the referendum and because it favours Scotland the Barnett formula has already taken heavy fire from English MP’s.
If you read the small print in the three devolution schemes which were proposed by the Lib-Dems, Devo-Plus and Devo-More along with Labour’s abortive draft scheme they argue that Scotland’s public services should get funded to the Barnett formula level or whatever new scheme will replace it. The only difference in the devolution schemes was what taxes the Scottish Government could raise to increase funding above the block grant and in all cases the only tax which was big enough to make a difference was income tax.
Any new scheme will reduce to this same basic formula:
Scotland will be funded to the Barnett formula level or its successor and can raise income tax above UK levels to try and save public services in Scotland.
The only fear will be how hard the BBC and the rest of the media will try and spin the smoke and mirrors of devolved, assigned and controlled taxes which mask the mundane reality of the Barnett formula into the wonder of the Emperor’s New Clothes.
Where in the world have after been offered a positive choice of governing themselves the citizens turned it down?
“I said it before.”
Welcome, Mark. Please don’t paste comments in from Microsoft Word, you wouldn’t believe the bloody awful mess I have to clean up if you do.
I’m still highly suspicious of polls – I have never been polled and don’t know a single soul who has. The consistently high figures for No are reflective of the popularity of anti-independence sentiment in affluent areas as reported by doorstep campaigners of the Yes campaign. The figures they report for less affluent areas especially Glasgow show huge support for Yes, around 60-70% in some places. You can only conclude the polling companies are avoiding these areas.
Still, the Yes campaign needs to up its tempo and more importantly change their stance from leading an information based, positive campaign to a more aggressive one which puts the ball firmly in the No camp and starts questioning them on the merits of a No vote – basically – weve produced a highly detailed blueprint for independence, what can you lot promise? The media role in this is crucial, however, and while im quite doubtful they will abide by the media neutrality commitment from June onwards, as they sense Yes support growing I think they simply wont want to be seen opposing the winning side.
Combined with a more effective campaign and more public interest in the referendum as the date nears, I think the events over the summer will be pivotal in accelerating the move to Yes. People do vote with their heart as well as their heads and im sure the Commonwealth, Homecoming events, Ryder cup buzz and constant media coverage of the English football team (and politicians telling us we should all be supporting them) will combine to boost patriotism and self-confidence which will see the Yes vote storming to victory on the 18th September!
@AnneDon,
I fully agree with what you say regarding MSM bias and Wos, NNS etc trying to counter that, which is a great thing. If there’s a way to raise the debate Cit Jurno’s the way it will be done.
It’s how these polls are conducted, they’re diversionary, tending away from the debate IMO and only serve to add to the bias from both sides. A kind of mini-war that chips away at peoples’ confidence resulting in voter apathy (VA).
SLAB tried these tactics at the last local elections (VA phase 1) and it appears to have backfired spectacularly, though I haven’t seen the figures on how many actually came out to vote in 2011, in terms of social engineering it may well have been seen as a successful operation in some quarters. It was a calculated gamble in which SLAB seem to have paid a hefty price.
The BT/SLAB CON/DEM strategy holds the same course and pursues “VA phase 2″(the upgrade), with the MSM thrown in for good measure.
Abused and confused, there really ought to be a law against it.
Talk about a BAD press, well maybe not…
For me the only poll that matters is actual Polling day Sept 18th 2014.
P.S. If the two campaigns we’re to put more people out to the doorsteps I’d be more inclined to believe the results.
Reference the possible new , revised Devo Max offer in the Spring of 2014, we need to get our retaliation in first:
We produce seven times the oil and gas we need for Scotland’s consumption.
We export one quarter of the electricity we produce.
Scotch whisky is one of the top ten UK export earners.
And where does the income from all these exports go? Check it out.
Why does Scotland have a bedroom tax, Scotland isn’t skint? Who wants Trident? Fancy another wee war somewhere? Afghanistan is soon to be mission accomplished and army recruitment is down because, the recruiting sergeant reckons, boring peacetime duties just are not attractive.
But then,cravens, according to our budding First Minister Jolo Lamont, education is in crisis with primary school class numbers at 22.004 and rushing to the plimsol line of 25. Much better to be Better Together with England where the plimsol line is a maximum class size of-wait for it – 30.
Get out there at weekends folk and talk to people.
Why Scottish people would steal their grand kids chance at free education, and hand that future over to the rich and powerful establishment in westminster, to line their pockets, rebuild London, subsidise their lifestyle and reinforce the class system which they are addicted to, Is totally abhorrent to me. There is nothing to be proud of there.
Our elderly people will loose a lot if not all of the benefits THEIR SCOTTISH GOVERNMENT’s HAVE GIVEN THEM. To subsidise the Westminster gravy train, keep in fuel and on the tracks. They are totally selfish, arrogant and without conscience, they think they are entitled to this place in our lives.
they have plundered and trampled all over the world, now they have only our wee Scotland left to kow tow to them and extract tribute from. ENOUGH! LET US GO AND LOOK AFTER OUR OWN.
Re devo max, that is of NO value to Westminster and the Establishment, hence it wasn’t on the table, it’s all or nothing for Scotland and Westminster. Without the oil money London doesn’t want us. With the oil they just want to swindle us out of our own resources and allow them to keep on living beyond their means, and we pay for it, in more ways than one.
However Westminster needs some crumbs from the table to try to continue the charade of them being one of the UN’s powerful backers and America’s powerful enforcers, as I say a charade and it has been for 50 years. THIS SHIT ABOUT THEM PUNCHING ABOVE THEIR WEIGHT, THE ONLY PERSON THAT GETS PUNCHED IS SCOTLAND, AND ROBBED!
THATS THE FACTS!
One of the reasons I heard before, and even this year, for voting NO was from Independence supporters who think we’re not ready “in another 5 years” and so on.
Something we need to make clear to them is that there will not be another chance in 5 years, even the SNP are saying 15 years “another generation”. Well, that’s 2029, to get Independence in 2031.
The Unionists tell us we’re aging faster than the rUK. I saw the graph, and at the moment we’re better off than the rUK because of our lower life expectancy. But the crossover is in 2030 – which means at that stage we will start to be worse off than the rUK, as we will not be able to take steps to increase our younger population, give more incentive for young people to stay.
There’s plenty oil to go around, but it will be declining slowly, and by 2029, with block grant cuts continung, our economy without oil is unlikely to be at 99% of the UK total. With oil it might only just reach 100%, and we would need the excess revenue to build our economy. In other words, in 15 years time Independence is going to be a considerably less attractive or even feasible possibility.
This is something we need to make clear to Independence supporters who intend to vote NO because we’re not ready for some reason or other.
Went out in Glasgow today proudly sporting my WOS better ourselves shirt and my yes badge, walked through the busy streets and tried in vain to find a similar soul who would wear their heart on their sleeve. Got me wondering why no one is fixing their colours to the mast in this most important vote in our lifetimes, makes me fear that the collective arse is going to fall out of us or our bottles will crash when it comes to the crunch and I hope to God I am wrong. We are in the next few months going up against the might of the British State and we must be more visible so as the unsure know that we are here in great numbers to carry this through.
That picture of Thatcher front page Herald must be worth a few YES votes 🙂
I was at the Lockerbie services today, and while having lunch at the school I saw a lad who couldn’t have been long out of school himself (if he even was) wearing a Better Together badge on his tie. I cringed.
I’m in no position to complain of course, because I had a Yes badge on my collar. And just as we were about to leave the cemetery Alex Salmond turned round and gave me a beaming smile. What was that all about – I had my hood up against the rain and as far as I know it was covering the badge. Maybe he does that to all the girls.
@barontorc … my sentiments exactly.
I was involved in one project to get an Independence Battle Bus touring Scotland… then the debate got bogged down because it wasn’t appropriate to call it a ‘Battle Bus’.
WTF?
This was my reply
“There is a powerful enemy who will do anything to frustrate the people of Scotland from knowing the truth, returning a YES and getting out of poverty. Make no mistake….This is a war. Perhaps nobody is dying, there is no armed conflict. But never-the-less… It is an Oil WarIt is a class warIt is a war for powerIt is a propaganda war.That is the reality. If anyone doubts that, ask yourself this. Why are you so passionate about Independence?We have done well to keep this conflict peaceful. But people get angry when the state tries to deviously manipulate a country through its various establishment channels. We need something that fights back. So, to be very clear. I do not care how ‘BattleBus’ sounds, or that it might upset the sensibilities of a few people. I want it to be loud, visible, and threatening to the ‘No’ camp.”
Enough of this political correctness while the other side blasts us daily with a barrage of fear, lies, smear and contempt.
Lastly this is a War of Words. Look down the page over the last few days….. story after story of what this Government is trying to do to Scotland…. And we are suggesting a YES Bus or an INFO bus?? Get real. We are running out of time. Leave the 100% positive campaigning to the guys that are good at it Yes Scotland and SNP. (And its the right thing for them to do)
But change was never won on the street by politeness.”
I gave up in the end.
Guys, guys. It took me a mere 60 seconds tonight to convert a definite NO voter to vote YES next year. How did I do it?
When I asked him why he would vote No he said we couldn`t afford it
I explained simply but clearly that Scots were richer per head than the rest of the UK and that we had been sending billions to the UK treasury every year for longer than either of us have been on this planet that never gets spent in Scotland.
I just love the look on peoples faces when the penny drops.
I have to say aswell that the polls are absolutely not reflecting the kind of shift taking place on the ground. I`ve converted at least ten friends and work mates who said they were going to vote no. This worries me a little as I wonder if there is some concerted effort to give the impression that it is unlikely with polls. The votes will be electronically counted I think and will surely be open to hacking of some sort.
Ok, i`m getting paranoid. And i`m a proud Scot, BUT.
Fairs fair….. as part of the UK we shouldn’t get higher public spending that the other countries/regions. So it’s quite right that Barnett be scrapped and I don’t see that anyone could reasonably argue otherwise, particularly as our (onshore) tax take per capita is almost exactly equal to the UK average. I also think it’s perfectly normal the the capital city (of the UK) gets a disproportionate amount of investment and higher salaries.
We just need to make voters up here aware of this, and that unless we vote YES that’s exactly what we are endorsing.
Is it just me or is the referendum becoming talked about a lot more at work, family christmas parties and so on? My 75yr old father trotted out the line that 48% of workers in Scotland work for the state (to be corrected quickly with the help of my smartphone and google). He’s educated, but reads the broadsheets and is being misled. I think he’s beginning to realise he’s being lied to and I have him down as a soft no. Mother, Daily Express reader and so ill informed it scares me, appears to be a hardened No.
Also, why do don’t no’s and no’s hate alex salmond so much? As a yes voter I enjoy the comedy from Ruth Davidson, Johann Lamont and Alastair Darling but can’t say I go on and on about personalities.
caz-m says:
Carwyn Jones (Labour Party) , the Welsh First Minister knows what is going to happen after a NO Vote…(snip)
Yes, he did say he couldn’t campaign for Scotland to remain in the UK whilst Wales doesn’t have tax raising powers. Wales is then given tax raising powers and he then goes of to Scotland to do the Tories dirty work for them
Meanwhile, back in Wales Labour have no interest in using these powers. My theory is that they would rather wait and use it as a bribe for the next elections. Labour have absolutely no interest in doing anything here in Wales that might see us compete with their masters next door. Get out whilst you can, don’t look back.
Polls. Meh.
According to polls those who want independence has varied between a quarter and a third of voters for decades. It isn’t realistic. Just isn’t. I have long since stopped paying ANY attention to polls, since in essence none of them really pass on the exact information they get. Every piece of data is assessed, changed, fiddled with, then the resulting confused mess is released and the most accurate assessment after that point says ‘it’s probably all rubbish.’ The raw data is frequently closer to reality than what they publish.
Remember 2011? When polls almost without exception said ‘Labour win’ or ‘slim margin?’ One poll said an SNP win by a reasonable distance and was dismissed as a freak result.
And we all know what happened after that.