Notes from the madhouse
The people (of England) have spoken, and their elected representatives are freaking out all over the shop.
Several senior Labour and Liberal Democrat MPs have openly called for the result of a democratic referendum to be overturned by Parliament against the wishes of voters. The Prime Minister has quit, the Chancellor is expected to follow on Monday, and half of the Labour shadow cabinet is apparently doing it as we speak, after Jeremy Corbyn fired Hilary Benn for planning a coup.
(Apparently including Ian Murray, the shadow Scottish Secretary who’s also the only Scottish Labour MP at Westminster, putting the party in the farcical position of having to find itself a spokesman on Scottish affairs who either sits in an English or Welsh seat or is an unelected lord.)
Labour MPs are also demanding Corbyn’s head, in essence for the crime of his being hugely popular with the party’s membership for reflecting the old-fashioned left-wing ideology and views that they actually believe in, rather than the “moderate” neo-Tory position of Blairite parliamentarians. Corbyn shows no sign of going.
Two opinion polls, meanwhile, suggest that support for independence has taken the lead in Scotland, where Nicola Sturgeon is quietly and calmly making arrangements with senior European officials to hold discussions about ways to keep Scotland in the EU – with the backing of Willie Rennie just in case any of the talks take place on a bouncy castle or a slide.
(The Daily Telegraph, which we must assume has been chatting to Alistair Carmichael again, is reporting that Sturgeon has joined the Tories and turned gay.)
It’s been suggested that the Scottish Parliament could in fact block any attempt by the UK to leave (though it seems unlikely). Britain faces a future without Milky Way Magic Stars. UK politics, to put it mildly, is in chaos. So what the hell’s going on?
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1. THE UK MAY NOT ACTUALLY LEAVE THE EU
First principles: it’s far too early to discount the possibility that the referendum result WILL be overturned. Referendums are not legally binding, and there are several routes by which Parliament may simply choose not to heed this one.
(We invite readers in passing to imagine the reaction in the media if Alex Salmond had responded to the indyref result by proposing that the Scottish Parliament simply ignore the result and declare independence anyway.)
There are numerous precedents in recent European history for awkward referendum outcomes either being ignored or simply resulting in more referendums being held until the desired result was achieved.
However, the EU itself seems to be in no mood for any faffing around this time. Having been told the UK wants a divorce, it’s not keen to have the UK hanging around the house for months and years getting in the way. It wants a clean break as soon as possible, and it’s prepared to take action to hurry it along.
Frankly, anyone who says they know how this will turn out is an idiot and/or a liar. We don’t even have a clue which UK Prime Minister will be conducting the negotiations, and that’s a somewhat important factor.
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2. SCOTLAND HAS CHANGED, AND CHANGED UTTERLY
It now seems to be all but universally accepted that there will now be a second referendum on Scottish independence. We’re not sure how it could legitimately be avoided, but see point (1) – at this point pretty much anything is possible.
What we can say for sure is that if there is another indyref, it will bear very little resemblance to the first one. Politicians, pundits, activists and public figures who were – let’s be polite about this – very firmly on the Unionist side in 2014 have either openly come out in support of independence or rowed away very fast from their previous position to give themselves some wiggle room.
The Scottish media, at the very least, will be split in the event of a second indyref. The shattered mess of Scottish Labour will be in no position to mount a major No campaign. Big business will be fighting for office space in Edinburgh, not threatening to leave. The EU itself will be bending over backwards to facilitate Scotland’s unbroken membership.
The Yes campaign would only need a swing of 6% on the 2014 result to win. The circumstances of a second vote would be enormously more advantageous. The grounds for optimism are clear.
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3. NOBODY KNOWS ANYTHING
None of that is to say the outcome of any second indyref would be a foregone conclusion. Around a third of SNP supporters voted Leave, and while we suspect that for most of them an independent Scotland inside the EU would still trump one that was outside the EU but in the UK, it can’t be taken for granted.
(The arithmetic of transposing the Remain vote to a Yes one is madly complicated, even beyond the above. For example, the 62% of Scots who voted Remain doesn’t include the young people and EU citizens who were excluded from the EU referendum by the UK government, but would be able to vote in a second indyref.)
An independent Scotland inside the EU bordering a UK that wasn’t is undoubtedly a fairly complicated prospect. We can’t say with any certainty what the economic situation would be, because it would depend in significant part on at least two separate sets of negotiations – those between the rUK and the EU, and those between Scotland and the rUK.
We can’t rule out legal wrangling over a second indyref happening at all, although today’s Sunday Times suggests that the UK government wouldn’t obstruct one.
And nobody has a clue whether there would be a hard border, with checkpoints at Gretna and Berwick. (Our view is that there wouldn’t, for some compelling practical reasons, but that clearly can’t be guaranteed.)
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4. JOURNALISTS ARE STILL IDIOTS AND LIARS
Mindbogglingly, on the BBC News channel yesterday its reporter Gavin Esler blithely asserted that there had been no prospect of a hard border in the last referendum, which will have come as a surprise to anyone with a functioning memory.
Yet mindbogglingly clueless UK and Scottish political hacks have also been churning out all the same old stories about an independent Scotland being forced to join the Euro, despite that categorical, empirical falsehood having been comprehensively and utterly debunked in multiple different ways in 2014.
We’ll say this again, because it clearly didn’t penetrate the first couple of thousand times: no EU member can ever be forced to join the Euro. To join it you first have to participate in the ERM2 exchange-rate mechanism for a minimum of two years, and participation in ERM2 is entirely voluntary.
All EU member states without an opt-out have to commit IN THEORY to joining the Eurozone, but in practice that commitment is utterly meaningless, because there’s an indefinite time limit on it. (And if – as currently seems to be one plausible outcome – Scotland simply took over the UK’s membership when the rest of the country left, it would inherit the opt-out anyway.)
If another indyref is coming, everyone should prepare for another avalanche of idiocy from the UK’s broadcasters and reporters, whichever sides everyone ends up on.
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5. POLLS STILL MATTER
The EU referendum result produced the entirely predictable howling in the press that the pollsters “got it wrong” again, displaying a spectacular misunderstanding of how basic probability works.
A poll saying “Outcome X is 52% likely” is NOT saying that Outcome X is definitely going to happen. What it’s actually saying is “We haven’t got a clue what’s going to happen. You’d be as well tossing a coin.”
52-48 (which was the final poll-of-polls on the EU referendum) is in fact a statistical tie. Within the margin of error it amounts to 50-50, ie both outcomes being equally probable. Anyone who interprets it as a firm indication of a win shouldn’t be allowed to go out to the ice-cream van with a £5 note, let alone attempt to inform the nation about serious issues.
Polls are of course in any event snapshots, not predictions, as pollsters wearily try to remind everyone at every opportunity. They don’t take account of people changing their minds, as humans are wont to do, and they can’t perfectly extrapolate the views of 1000 people onto 35 million. They’re rough guides, and as rough guides they were as accurate as could ever be expected. They said it would be very close, and it was.
So if anyone tells you that polls are bunk because they didn’t precisely predict the outcomes of the EU vote or the 2015 and 2016 elections, give them a good hard slap round the face. They’re not supposed to, they never can, and anyone interpreting them that way is an absolute imbecile.
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6. TIMING IS EVERYTHING
And what that means is that polling will have a huge impact on whether and when a second indyref takes place.
Strategic logic dictates that Nicola Sturgeon should strike while the iron is hot – the time to attack is when your foe is in disarray, and the Unionist establishment hasn’t been in this much disarray for decades, if not centuries. But strategic logic will count for nothing if the polls aren’t showing a strong and consistent lead for Yes.
The independence movement needs to keep its head while all around are losing theirs. Fortunately it appears to be under the leadership of someone very much aware of that. It may not be far off, but the time has not yet come to raise the spears.
@Jim 9:59am & @Ken500
If you MUST listen to such programmes, please use an off-line method, like, say, a radio.
All on-line listening data is gathered and used to bolster the listening figures. Stay below the ability to count listeners if you want the programme to wither and be pulled like the weed it is.
If you use a service like Sky to listen to radio programmes, they also track your channel hopping habits by virtue of the telephone line, or internet connection, you need to comply with their terms of use. So, try and use a stand-alone radio if you can.
Don’t mind admitting that I’m a bit nervous about where we go from here.
If we accept europe’s conditions wholesale as an independent nation we effectively embrace the idea of austerity – a county ‘living within its means’.
Anyone who believes in a country balancing its books should look up ‘the paradox of thrift’
What we needs to be is a nation’s like Iceland which has its own currency and its own agreements with the EU. It would be a far better proposition.
Scotland exports to the EU and all over the world. Salmon whisky etc. Imports into England will be dearer and put up prices there. Scotland economy will be damaged by Westminster ignorance. The English want trade barriers, tariffs and passport controls. If they don’t take goods from Scotland there will be shortages (of food) They just voted to leave the EU.
The numbers are exaggerated by goods going through England to the rest of the world because of Thatcher’s transport policies putting all goods through London. Food and drink is exported all over the world from Scotland worth £Billions. There are other routes. Scotland is self sufficient in food and energy. Exports 25% of it’s energy production. Without which there would be shortages or higher costs in England. There will be now. England just voted to leave the EU.
The Westminster Unionists complete and utter fools.
@ghillie, luigi
“‘My only concern is that, as WM implodes, the rUK begs Nicola to take control of an emergency government. Nicola kindly decline, you belong to Scotland!’”
More likely they ask Tank Girl to caretake the Tories so talks with the EU can commence.
That way she can lie her teeth off to the Scottish electorate about what a great deal they are getting, with alleged authority, if there is an indyref2.
Scotland balances it’s books and always has done. Scotland has mainly been in surplus. Taken by Westminster. The equivalent of a £300Billion Oil fund.
sensibledave says:
27 June, 2016 at 9:42 am
Do the people of Scotland want Independence from their biggest trading partner (i.e the rest of the UK, take 64% of all Scottish exports I read somewhere) with a border and passports, tariffs, etc, between us, whilst less than 16% goes to EU? ….. and Neither side having the right to free movement to work?
Ruby replies
Are you suggesting that the RUK will not take any Scottish exports?
What’s the big deal about borders & passports?
As a non EU citizen you are going to have to get used to borders & passports every time you move out of England. You might even need a visa to go to Benidorm. You should also prepare yourself for your holiday rep being a foreigner because I can’t see the Spanish gov awarding work permits to non EU citizens when there is such high unemployment in Spain.
Re right to work have you forgotten that people in Scotland could well have dual nationality and then there is the added bonus for employers & people in Little England that Scottish people are a lot less foreign than people from outwith the British Isles.
Any chance you could come back with some fresh arguments this time around instead of regurgitating the SSDD?
Watched AS on Sky News educating another well qualified highly paid ignorant Anchor person pushing the Londinium anti Scottish guff. Why do these supposedly well educated Englanders not know that SCOTLAND is a separate country not a region of Engerland. They don’t seem to be able to overcome their ignorance or is it just arrogance, or are they just thick!
They appear to have selective short term memories, so much for English education system.
Boris, plays cricket while London burns! Mwaaahhaaahahaha
Just read my ‘left behind’ Record in the cafe with the YES badge on the front page corner and the new poll indicating a move towards independence.
Bojo and Gove hiding under a rock too asking who’s in charge!
Also found Iceland flag centre fold in ‘The National’ maybe Pete put it in there… sorry Pete.
12 Scots in GB team for Olympics… a record number I am told.
That’s cheating surely 4 countries pretending to be one.
Imagine a whole team of Scots in the Olympics that’s better.
Heedy 9.52
… er no Heedy (BTW, I voted Remain in the end and it is, arguably, the combined “leave” vote of the Scots and the Northern Irish that have produced the Leave majority – which is somewhat ironic!).
But you need to address the big question Heedy. How confident are you now that an Indyref2 would result in the majority of Scots voting to separate themselves from their biggest trading partner with borders and tariffs, and no free movement rules, with either Sterling or the Euro as their currency – from the rest of the UK?
As I said Heedy, ALL BETS ARE OFF NOW!
@ Mealer, I wouldn’t worry about calling her Ruthie, it’s certainly not a term of endearment. Ruth is grown up, Ruthie, as in “awe it’s wee Ruthie” is just fine. When I hear “Ruthie” I hear “Dafty.” A dangerous wee dafty but a dafty none the less.
@ whoever is cheering on Jean Claud Junckers, the man is a grade A arse! From what I hear a lot in Brussels want him fired for his handling of this whole mess.
Being an old romantic and getting slightly ahead of myself, only slightly mind, I can’t wait for the day that Scotland gets its turn at the presidency of the EU. Oh Gawd! Can you imagine?
Another sad epistle in the National from that sad old fart Sillars.
I suppose the editor is hopping to get a response in the letter section.
Best ignore.
from previous post thread…shocking rude ignorant.
(( Rock says:
26 June, 2016 at 11:42 pm
Lochside,
“You fancy yourself as a historian Robert, yet there you are peddling the pish about Hadrian’s wall, perpetrated by English revisionist historians about it being a ‘custom’s post’. Some Customs’ post!”
Good of you to put the record straight.
Robert Peffers hasn’t dared to challenge you but he will continue peddling the same pish again and again.))
oh thanks for putting the record straight?? WTF – ?
I commented on the “getting ourselves together” post..
TOO AGGRESSIVE ROCK .. why would Robert need too “dare” to counter Lochside ? you guys are weird, even for psycho-trolls.
@sensibledave says: 27 June, 2016 at 9:26 am:
” … just because of one vote by the people.
‘Tis a wonderful thing, democracy.”
T’would indeed be a wonderful thing, Dave – if we Scots had ever actually had any within this thoroughly disunited kingdom. Indeed no one has had democracy from the much vaunted Mother of Parliaments – ever.
First of all it is a United Kingdom and, not as many would have it, a country. That is, it is a bipartite union with only the signatures of the two kingdoms extant in Britain prior to 1706/7.
Those two kingdoms were factually the, (three country), Kingdom of England that had annexed, (not united with), Wales by the Statute of Rhuddlan in 1284, and annexed Ireland, (by the forced, “Crown of Ireland Act”, of the parliament of Ireland), in 1542.
There is no documentary evidence to show that the United Kingdom has ever been other than a Kingdom and it certainly cannot be a single country when containing four long established countries.
Furthermore, the UK parliament’s proper designation is now still described as, “Her Majesty’s Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland”.
Ergo it cannot be a democracy when its parliament belongs to Her Majesty even if only the three countries in one equally sovereign partner of the bi-partite Treaty of Union are a Constitutional Monarchy. Which means the Queen legally owns everything in that kingdom – including her subjects.
She obviously cannot own either everything or have subjects in Scotland which, long before the Treaty of Union, had declared that the People of Scotland are sovereign and their monarchy were but the defenders of the people’s sovereignty.
Yet from day one of the Treaty coming into effect there was no actual democracy for the very basic reason of numbers of Members of parliament from each still individual country within the structure of a United Kingdom. There are currently 59 Scottish Members, 40 Welsh Members, 18 NI members and 533 English members.
Thus there are a total of 59+40+18=117 members from Wales, N..I and Scotland. While 533-117=416. shows a clear overall majority of members from the country of England and 40+18+533=591 shows the number of members from the Kingdom of England and thus there is a clear overall majority in favour of the Kingdom of England of 532 over 59 from the Kingdom of Scotland.
Where is there any democracy it that set-up?
There could only have been true democracy if the United Kingdom had actually united as a single unified Kingdom and there had been no distinct countries left.
The entire history from 1706/7 indicates that the people have always still identified themselves according to country. First we had the Irish partition that split one countries political administration on two but did not eradicate Ireland as a country.
Much of Scotland and Wales have never accepted they were other than different countries and different cultures. Then we presently have the ludicrous situation of the UK establishment splitting the whole UK up along the lines of countries but even more idiotic with each country getting different levels of devolved powers.
This was followed by the totally brainless efforts of the present Westminster Establishment to apply EVEL. They not only split up the supposed United Kingdom but did so along country lines. Thus instead of as the actual two component Kingdoms of the United Kingdom. They then started down the road of only English, (country), votes for English Laws. Trouble with that is that English law has been the law of Wales since 1284 and of Ireland since 1542 and it has never been law in Scotland.
There has never been anything remotely resembling democracy in the British Isles in the entire history of the World.
And that’s without even mentioning the HOL.
O/T British Bank shares tanking. Trading suspended.
Osborne. “Britain is open for business. No emergency budget.”
Hammond. “Foreign investment has all but dried up. We can’t survive without foreign investment.”
Kaye. “Barclays and RBS shares suspended. Can that be happening?”
You ain’t seen nothin’ yet Kaye. BBC Scotland in full pravda mode.
BBC liars. Nicola did not say Scotland could block Emgland exit. Nicloa said she would do everything to block Scotland exit and do everything in her power to keep Scotland in the EU. 62% of voters in Scotland voted to remain.
I am no fan of Corbyn, but I must say I am appalled at the lack of respect shown by his Blairite cabinet colleagues (numpties)as they jump ship. Resignation is one thing, but to slag off your leader as being useless and telling him to go so publically is completely out of order.
Do Labour supporters really want those showers back in charge?
Gosh I’m so going to miss the fragrant Ms Bradford
PS Sensible Dave
What makes you think there are going to be loads of jobs in ‘Little England’ that Scottish people might want?
The Leave Campaign where just like No Campaign in Scotland. They said whatever bollocks they needed to get votes. There was no thought in either case for the aftermath.
It is clear UK politics now operates on a ‘buyer beware’ system for voters. Offers come with no guarantees. You get to thoroughly inspect what you are presented with, but once you part with your vote, the deal is done. There is no equivalent of Trading Stadards with will step in when pigs in pokes are being sold.
Posted on another forum.
http://cf.broadsheet.ie/wp-content/uploads/2016/06/Screen-Shot-2016-06-27-at-00.56.53-e1466985584746.jpeg
Ashcroft claiming 37% of SNP voters for Leave.
Ruby 9.42
You wrote: “Are you suggesting that the RUK will not take any Scottish exports? What’s the big deal about borders & passports?
… of course the UK would continue to take Scottish exports. However, those exports will carry the EU tariffs under whatever trade deal is agreed with the EU as a whole. Borders and passports between England and Scotland may, or may not be a big deal – I guess it depends on the individual or their view on what it might mean to their family, children, etc. Free movement to work would, I think we can agree would be a big “negative” in people’s minds though.
As I have repeated often, I don’t mind whether Scots vote for Independence or not. I am discussing whether the Scottish electorate would find Scottish Independence more, or less, attractive now – if its biggest trading partner (the UK) was outside the EU?
we should have been an independent country at the first time of asking
Luigi says:
“Resignation is one thing, but to slag off your leader as being useless and telling him to go so publically is completely out of order.”
A new YouGov poll of WM intentions has just put Labour narrowly ahead of the Tories.
It’s like Blairites don’t want to win an election!
It is just beyond belief. What these lying ‘pycho bastards’ have done. It is just incredible.
The £10Billion contribution comes back. In CAP payments, Grants, and shared Defence cost etc.
some definition is required around the meaning of History itself. .Sure there are revisionists who have ulterior motives.. BUT
..when we look at modern events, we say “this ( or that) will be a historic moment etc” ..±PISH..
.when we look at (say Roman) ancient history, we (Rock etc) say ..”there is historical inaccuracy ” UNTRUE.
what we are dealing with is BAD ARCHAEOLOGY, treating the “minds” of previous generations ( NO MATTER HOW FAR BACK IN TIME) as if they can be compared to our minds.
FORENSIC SOCIAL ARCHAEOLOGY can discover more about the truth of existence than all the “finds” of actual stuff left behind.
take Ancient Egypt – all the nice nice -look at these supreme leaders and the progress they provided etc etc ..BOLLOCKS – they were a ruling abusive class of sexual perverts, but our kids in school do the colouring in, king Tut stuff oblivious, comparing our kings/queens/”customs” to these ancients is an ignorant futility.
..when Robert says ( Hadrians wall) “customs” posts he is correct – the “customs” from one region being challenged and given value by another – THAT is why its called customs. the Romans were violent, expansionist, not so stupid that they’d turn down ANYTHING of value to themselves.
there was one great value in ancient history, survival – by avoiding disease – avoiding foreign contact- until an understanding was achieved – a risk assessment, if you will.
Tasmina Ahmed of the SNP putting Victoria derbyshire right when she said Nicola Sturgeon has said she would block England leaving this seems to be the line the BBC are pushing , rumor UK bank trading about to be suspended
Here’s an outlier.The UK cabinet resigns en masse and is replaced with a Europhile cross party government of national unity,who kick the idea of a Brexit away into the long grass.Theyd have four years before they’d have to face the electorate.
Fun times: the best bit so far is the self-selecting clear out of the deadwood from the Labour Party
Scotland can trade with who it wants. England will not be able to trade freely with it’s nearest bigget market the EU. 450Million.
Scotland has always been in surplus, which Westminster took. Scotland has always balanced it’s books. Westminster illegally and secretly took the equivalent of £300Billion from Scotland. Thatcher and the McCrone Report.
Johnston lying again. An absolute disgrace.
er …..”whether the Scottish electorate would find Scottish Independence more, or less, attractive now – if its biggest trading partner (the UK) was outside the EU?”
say sensible Dave.
Scotland doesn’t have ANY trading partners at the moment, only WORLD CLASS products with potential to be sold to continuing or developing markets.
WE will decide how to RATE these future opportunities, for example, weighing up how/whether to invest in-tech industries in industrial heartlands – while protecting essential rural communities, who give us our marketable identity.
The Vice-Chairman of Angela Merkels party, the CDU, was on R4 this morning saying Dave must immediately trigger Article 50.
Dave is going to be in the hot seat tomorrow…
As ever the bbc will continue to eagerly work against Scotland’s interests.
mealer says:
27 June, 2016 at 11:06 am
Here’s an outlier.The UK cabinet resigns en masse and is replaced with a Europhile cross party government of national unity,who kick the idea of a Brexit away into the long grass.Theyd have four years before they’d have to face the electorate.
Just what I was thinking, some form of emergency government. But if they try and kick Brexit into the long grass, there might be trouble. Leave have stirred up alot of emotion amongst the great unwashed.
@ScottieDog says: 27 June, 2016 at 10:11 am:
“Don’t mind admitting that I’m a bit nervous about where we go from here.
If we accept europe’s conditions wholesale as an independent nation we effectively embrace the idea of austerity – a county ‘living within its means’.”
There is absolutely no chance of the EU allowing Scotland to continue as the successor member state of the EU without at least a renegotiation of the present UK’s terms.
The present terms for the UK, (Britain is NOT an EU Member State), were always more favourable than was acceptable to a large proportion of the other EU member states.
It will be very doubtful if the EU even allows Scotland to be the continued member state. More likely they will allow Scotland to become a new member state but without any problems of qualification as we already meet all the usual criteria by being existing EU citizens.
To knock another belief on the head – there will be the usual open invitation to join the Euro, and indeed Scotland has fulfilled all the criteria for that long ago.
Thing is, as the Rev Stu and others point out there is actually NO EU LAW to force Euro adoption by any member state”.
The most likely thing is thus that Scotland will continue, without any actual break, as EU citizens and members but not as the continued UK. As I have pointed out for many years there are no EU rules, laws or mechanisms to expel EU citizens from the EU.
It would be daft for the EU, whose whole aim is to form a united Europe, to begin throwing EU citizens out. You cannot guarantee citizenship while throwing existing citizens out and thus destroying any credibility you had as a European Union.
The real worry is that the EU will go the way of the UK and just fold as a Union. However, my guess is that there is already a growing wind of constitutional change blowing through the European Union.
That is more than can be said about the Union of kingdoms.
sensibledave says:
27 June, 2016 at 10:55 am
Free movement to work would, I think we can agree would be a big “negative” in people’s minds though
Ruby replies
For people in ‘Little England’ or people in Scotland?
Free movement to work hasn’t deterred the billions of Scots who have travelled to live & work all over the world so I don’t think it will be a big deal. Then there is the question of whether or not Scots will have dual nationality and if there are going to be any jobs in ‘Little England’ that Scots might want.
I suspect the problem might be one for people in England who would prefer to live/work/do business in an EU Scotland rather than in a pure white right wing English state.
HoC agenda STILL not showing anything remotely related to the Brexit nightmare.
It has now been expanded to show the individual questions to the Defence sec.
http://www.parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/4166e746-b9af-41b2-8a71-983be4680fb4
I listened to Michael Heseltine on the news this morning
and he made it clear that the negotiations in Europe for Brexit had to be carried out by GOVE, Johnson and Farge, they had to be made to own Brexit.
His reasoning being that if anyone else negotiated a deal with Europe then the Brexiteers could disown it and claim it was a good deal.
Those unionists who claim to support leaving the EU in order to take back their democracy, Sovereignty and control of their own Country.
Yet these same unionists are determined to do anything and everything they can to deny the people of Scotland taking back their sovereignty and democratic right to control and govern their own country.
They obviously believe that Scotland to be kept in its place and does what its told by Westminster and accept Governments and policies imposed on it that it didn’t vote for and effectively being told to like it or lump it.
How very democratic of them.
Is all this stooshie/civil war in Labour Party just to deflect from Chilcot Report,
Iraq,
Sunday 26 June 2016,
21 killed.
Baghdad: 10 by IEDs, gunfire; 1 body.
Hamrin mountains: 4 family members die of thirst fleeing the fighting.
Tarmiya: 3 by IED.
Basra: 1 in clashes.
Shirqat: 2 (mother and baby) by gunfire,
Jeremy said the Labour Party war criminal Tony Blair must face charges at The Hague and face the punishment,
Blairites in Labour Party want rid of Jeremy.
Robert Peffers
Ok Robert, whilst you and I have had some run-ins in the past, lets try to be civil with each other and discuss the matter at hand. I bow to your superior knowledge of history of what we currently call the UK. Genuinely though, of all the issues that will affect what happens in Scotland, England, Wales and Northern Ireland over the next 3 years, that history, and the arguments you make so passionately, will not figure. Do you not agree?
We both visit Wings because we are interested in politics from one point of view or another. Amazingly, even though the EU referendum was coming for a long time, as it turns out, not one single person foresaw the actual fall-out of the Leave result.
Every significant political party operating in the UK is now trying to comes to terms with the new reality – including the SNP. Of course, there are Scottish Nationalists that see every thing that causes grief in the UK as an automatic benefit to the cause of Independence for Scotland. I am questioning whether the “thinkers” actually believe that this outcome will actually make indyref2 more certain – and its outcome as predictable as is being suggested.
For instance, I don’t think that one cannot take for granted that anyone that voted Remain in Scotland in the EU referendum is anymore likely to vote for Scottish Independence now than someone who may have voted YESn the Scottish referendum. There will be those (say 25% either way) whose views are entrenched and will not be swayed by these current events. However, I would imagine the 50% in the middle will “float” depending upon the situation, arguments and the potential outcomes that they believe are relevant once the UK has left the EU (assuming that that happens and, personally, I am not certain that it will).
I cant see any way that Ms Sturgeon will go for indyref2 until the UK’s exit deal has been finalised. She would have no information to give the Sottish electorate about what Scottish Independence would look like. Logically therefore, indyref2 would have to wait a couple of years, and then the issues of asking the electorate to separate from their biggest trading partner with tariffs and border, no free movement, etc, using either Sterling (managed by the Bank of England) or the Euro (managed by the EU) doesnt look particularly attractive to me.
I guess I am saying is indyref2 would absolutely not be a “slam dunk”. Ms Sturgeon will have worked all this out by now and there is no doubt she is an intelligent and pragmatic woman. I cant see indyref2 for at least 3 years under any circumstances.
@ Sandcraig – Tinto C
The entity/area of “East Germany” was until early after WWII a part of the German State and was for political reasons (world politics) separated from Germany and remamed the DDR – Deutsche Democratische Republik (German Democratic Republic).
In 1989/1990 because of changing world politics and self-determination of the East German population, they voted to reunite with the “Mother” country from which they were separated 40 years earlier. The reverted back to being German citizens.
Because Germany was already a (founding) member of the EU, the people of the former DDR were accepted as citizens of Germany and thus automatically EU citizens.
A good explanation is here:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_reunification
I find it hilarious that we have a Queen of German descent and
a Duke (chookie)of Edinburgh who was born in Greece! 🙂
Good interview with Alex Salmond on RT. Also, Polish Embassy “shocked and concerned over xenophobic attacks in UK”.
https://www.rt.com/shows/sophieco/348523-scotland-independence-vote-salmond/
sensibledave says:
As I have repeated often, I don’t mind whether Scots vote for Independence or not. I am discussing whether the Scottish electorate would find Scottish Independence more, or less, attractive now – if its biggest trading partner (the UK) was outside the EU?
Ruby
My question regarding your contribution to this forum has always been ‘If you don’t care whether Scots vote for Independence or not then why on earth are you wasting your time posting here?”
Don’t get my wrong I’m glad, delighted over the moon, on cloud nine, tickled pink, happy as a clam that you post here as you act as a kinda stooge feeding me my lines.
To show how much I care I think I am going to use to the term of endearment ‘Stoogie’ from now on.
Big Hugz Stoogie!
Ruby 11.15
… Ruby, I can see from your comments that your belief that indyref2 will result in an automatic win for separation is unshakeable. I rather suspect Ms Sturgeon is a bit more thoughtful and pragmatic. She will only call indyref2 when she thinks she will win it. Only a fool would think they “know” anything in these times.
Do you want a public bet with me on whether there is an indyref2 within the next 2 years?
So much for Osborne getting up early to quell the markets
The pound continues its downward spiral
As at 11.29 am the pound is worth euros 1.198 and
the pound is worth USD 1.319
This will mean cost of petrol & diesel increasing
any holiday’s in Europe or anywhere actually costing more
The UK imports many products as well as food, so the price in the shops will increase, because purchasing will be more expensive and the cost of delivery will increase
Rumour has it that the pound will reach parity with the euro at some point.
Ruby, always found Senseless Dave to be a cuddly but patronising person. Glad he has found another to appreciate his ahem, talents.
In my post@27 June, 2016 at 11:22 am
It should have read as the Brexiteers could disown it and claim it was not a good deal.
Rumour has it that the pound will reach parity with the euro at some point.
Oh the irony! So, at last, we can join the Euro.
“I rather suspect Ms Sturgeon is a bit more thoughtful and pragmatic. She will only call indyref2 when she thinks she will win it.”
Aye, we know that. So what’s your point?
Ruby 1 stooge 0
Ruby wins on penalties
Game over
Just had a wee thought about Ruthie tank commander. Listen up Ruthie, free advice coming.
Her personal style I find too shouty and bullying, but there are folk who react well to that. Little old dears who were anti-Sturgeon without any good reason for example (just like the anti-Salmond folk before, who had no logical argument, except the childish response ‘just because’).
Tactically, she decided to set heself up as the main opposition to the SNP. That was her USP.
As I write, here’s the situation.
1.Oor Kez has shot herself in the foot which is attached to the increasingly heavy irons of ‘no Indyref2’
2. Ruthie’s antipathy towards Johnston is well known (as was obvious in the tv debate where she had been ordered to kick him oot the park at any opporchancity).
3. Fluffy’s anti-Johnson answer yesterday morning very informative. It’s beginning to look like he is hated in Scottish Tory ranks as much as he is loved by the little Englanders.
4. She very publicly and forthrightly campainged to Remain.
Conclusion, Ruthie might, just might, see the way the wind’s blowing and get on the indyref bus to allow her career to continue on the same bus, albeit the opposite side, to Nicola.
And if she DID jump the shark to indyref2, the 55% first time round would include at least 20 who’d come straight over. Prediction, indyref2 70%. Done deal.
Come on Ruthie, you’ve got a career to save.
Perhaps I am just suffering from creeping senility, but WRT post indy monetary arrangements:
What is wrong with the Pound Scots ?
I am open to enlightenment if forthcoming.
John.
The post of shadow Secretary of State for Scotland remains vacant. No change from when it was held by Ian Murray then.
sensibledave says:
If its biggest trading partner (the UK) was outside the EU?
Taking into account that most things are shipped through English ports I’am not surprised.
However things will change radically when Scotland modernizes it’s ports, then Scottish businesses will trade direct with Europe and cut out the English middleman, in addition exporting Scottish goods direct to the EU and abroad. As for the Westminster balance of payments, I’am sorry that’s their own problem of their own making.
I can’t wait to vote for a new fair and prosperous Scotland.
Here’s why I’m voting Yes next time.
https://medium.com/@Colinstewart76/im-out-debff59a60d4#.nic8mxw8h
Kaye Adams. “So what are the positives of Brexit.”
I see a hedge fund just made 10.5% by shorting the pound.
Italy is having to inject $44 billion into banks.
UK bonds bombing as the spivs wait for Carney to start throwing money around.
If you can keep your head while all about you are losing theirs Kaye, you probably don’t understand what’s happening.
Sorry ‘Stoogie’ I can’t give you any more attention this morning.
Hopefully some other kind soul will come along and chat with you.
Have a nice day ‘Stoogie Woogie’
Mad times are upon us. David Lammy is adamant he will not support an Article 50 vote. He wants another referendum to ensure people really understand what they voted for.
Of course if the UK government want they can always introduce an arbitrary percentage rule in the same way that Callaghan did after the 1979 Devolution referendum.
The ensuing vote of no confidence and election election put Independence to bed for a while.
The problem now is that there is no strong Opposition waiting to take advantage in the same way as Thatcher. If anything there may be a be a rebound vote for Ukip who may get more seats. A combined Unionist vote may diminish the SNP seats in an attempt to slow down Independence support.
Meanwhile trading in RBS and Barclay’s shares suspended.
James Barr Gardner
I’m confused about this export stuff.
This 64% figure quoted by ‘Stoogie Woogie’ is that goods that are exported to England that are then exported to other parts of the world?
With due respect to Robert Peffers isn’t it time we re-defined Britain as everywhere in the soon to be dismantled UK that is not Scotland?
Just come to my notice I,ll leave it here for those like myself who hadent seen it before.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2016-06-22/german-government-agrees-indefinite-ban-fracking
@Robert Graham says:11:00 am
“Tasmina Ahmed of the SNP putting Victoria derbyshire right when she said Nicola Sturgeon has said she would block England leaving this seems to be the line the BBC are pushing it”
They are pushing it because it is they who raised it on the Sunday politics “show”. It was clearly choreographed by Brewer to wrongfoot Nicola. She handled it the only way she could. It has since been sold by the BBC as if Nicola had announced it on the steps of Bute house as a new policy. The BBC and Brewer are lackies of the Westminster establishment but we already knew that.
As I said in a previous thread, The BBC SNPbaad stories have never ceased. The volume goes up and down but it’s always there, in the background, constantly droning on.
@Ruby
Re. Exports.
The majority of Scottish goods are exported to the world through English ports, the UK government then classes these as English exports and claims the revenue raised as English, and not Scottish revenue…the crafty gits.
I see the inappropriately-named sensibledave is pestering us again.
I’ve often wondered why he doesn’t just do something more useful with his life, like training for the international stone-skimming championships, or making recordings of himself farting during thunderstorms.
The Winds of Change are Blowing through Europe
( rockaby baby in the tree tops )
Over to You Mr Peffers for a wee piece on the history.
( quik the Rocks no looking )no that Rock ah mean the Gib rock lol)
Dont let that bass get you doon Robert.
I don’t know about all these export figures except that they are almost certainly incorrect. Maybe someone can correct me if I’m wrong, but as I understand it, all goods passing over to the Continent from England are counted as English exports, even when they are only in transit from Scotland.
For all I know (which is admittedly very little) such goods in transit may even also be accounted as trade with England!
Whatever, Scotland’s trade with our European neighbours is almost certainly being consistently under-represented.
And that won’t change until Scotland has become a sovereign nation again. (That phrase should be our slogan from now on.)
If there’s any truth in the idea that the reason Cameron is not triggering Article 50 is to hang Boris and the Brexiteers out to dry, that’s criminal. Is he happy to increase all the uncertainty and financial mayhem for domestic political reasons, or personal spite?
I hope the other EU heads of state give him a roasting when he meets them this week.
Buffalo Gal has definitely got a wee problem to sort out.
She was very prominent in the Remain wing of the Conservative and Unionist Party – the wing which lost.
She is apparently no friend/ally/admirer of Boris – who is now the front runner to be the next Prime Minister: unless the ABB (Anybody But Boris) wing of her party can come up with an acceptable alternative, which, given Boris’s grass roots poularity in England will not be easy.
So, she is a by-stander until the English branch of the C&UP sorts-out its little local difficulty, and can tell the Scottish branch what to do.
She could “accept the will of the people” and throw-in her lot with the English Tories. But that would leave her with zero credibility up her – trying to justify In, while a clear majority in Scotland want Out.
Or, playing the long game, she could, and maybe should, say: “OK, I would still far rather see the UK remaining united, but, if it is the will of the Scottish people that we have independence, I will remain in Scotland and fight for conservative values of low taxation, small government and personal prudence and responsibility to be maintained in Scotland.
That way, she might find, many on the right of the SNP and SLAB, who have been turned-off the Conservative Party by, if not its Englishness, it’s enthusiasm for money-grabbing, look after Number One and to Hell with the poor “London values” would return to the fold.
Unionism is if not already dead, in its death throes in Scotland, but, one-nation Conservatism might have a future up here in an independent Scotland in the EU. Is Ruth clever enough to see this and to take her party there? Personally, Ah hae ma doots.
In the way that Scotland is already changing to an Independent way of thinking and acting, so also we ought really to switch now to a European standpoint. We are no longer UK, looking into Europe; we are now, effectively and aspirationally, looking into the rUK from Europe.
One of the immediate effects of this change is the realisation that the management of the consequences of EU Ref16 lies in our own hands, in partnership with the EU. The government at Westminster meanwhile continues to think that they are still in control of Scotland. It is this UK centered thinking which we continue to be brainwashed with daily by the BBC and the press.
It’s time to think as being European just as, I suspect, Nicola herself is doing already. I look forward to a ‘European’ Wings over Scotland.
Socrates MacSporran said:
I understood from her (single and uncharacteristically subdued) recent comment that this is effectively what she is doing. She just doesn’t want to make it too obvious, that’s all. Lying low and awaiting further directions from her bosses in London.
You are correct, there is a future for a right-of-centre party in an independent Scotland, but the Tories mostly can’t see it. After all, some of them aren’t even yet reconciled to devolution! But a few outliers (eg. Allan Massie) seem to be beginning to get the idea.
The current WOS twitter feed is an oasis of humour in a sea of insanity.
Oh, has anybody blamed the SNP yet for dodgy rollercoaster activities.
Does anyone believe that the Westminster government can actually stop brexit now?
Having raised the mob, the xenophobic, whites only, anti immagration take back our country mob, how can they be denied their victory now?
Attempting to put the genie back in the bottle is a waste of time.
Westminster reminds me of the proverbial ‘man holding a tiger by the tail’. It’s a tiger of their own making, Farage was the midwife, Westminster and the rotten MSM fed and nurtured it.
If it wasn’t so serious, it would be comical.
That should, of course read immigration
Its hardly rocket science that an independent Scotland would accommodate a centre-right party.
It’s just that up until now it would never have satisfied the big egos when there was a such a big stage (or an illusion of one) at Westminster.
But a broken-up Britain shivering in the political cold off the coast of Europe must be losing it’s allure by the minute.
Now is the time for Ruth’s Rangers to decide whether they are truly Scottish.
She said they would have to go independent if Johnson became PM.
So let them take the next, natural step.
I would never vote for them, but would be delighted to see them grasp the nettle – or should that be thistle.
Ruby 2:06 pm
You wrote: “Sorry ‘Stoogie’ I can’t give you any more attention this morning”.
haha rubes, are the questions a little more difficult than you can handle?
I note other commenters above are starting to think from a different stand point. I am sure your faith is totally justified Ruby and there are absolutely no potentially negative consequences for Scottish Independence as a result of the Leave vote. Bless!
Dear Stoogie, as Ruby is busy may I interject?
There are, of course, some negative consequences in the leave vote for Scottish independence.
There are, however many more positives.
In fact, I’m spoiled for choice
On the lunchtime radio news: the pound continues to fall, shares likewise, and recession is predicted. No direction until a new regime is installed. Alistair Darling is appalled.
Ex-banker Mervyn King says “there’s no reason to panic”. Which probably means there is.
In the meantime, it is becoming clear that Brexit haven’t a clue what to do. Funny, that. Who knew? Not from the media, anyway. During the indyref, we had persistent attacks from the BBC etc. that we had no “Plan B” on the currency question. Yet they haven’t managed to discover until now that the Brexiteers don’t even have a “plan A”. Worse than useless!
sensibledave says:
27 June, 2016 at 1:02 pm
Ruby 2:06 pm
You wrote: “Sorry ‘Stoogie’ I can’t give you any more attention this morning”.
haha rubes, are the questions a little more difficult than you can handle?
Ruby replies
No ‘Stoogie Woogie’ your questions are not difficult it’s just that I have given you a lot of attention this morning and I am very busy I have the following in my inbox which requires my attention:
‘Can I suggest you take the rest of the day off to read all of the extraordinary coverage in The Times, just so you are up to speed before tomorrow’s onslaught?
As with the sinking of the Titanic, it was women and shadow Scottish secretaries first
Let’s get Scots and Irish on side and make Brexit work
Osborne emerges from the bunker
George mulls doing a deal with Boris
Cameron to carry on and on
Sturgeon’s threat to scupper Brexit
Corbyn coup continues
Andrea Leadsom on making Brexit work
Will Straw on why his Remain campaign lost
Chris Grayling on not becoming a narrow-minded nation
Tim Farron on becoming the rejoin EU party
Emergency Brexit budget is off
Cameron won’t “do a Blair”
How we lost the referendum to Boris Johnson’s lies
We will stand up for the victims of the Brex-trick
As we exit Europe, we must remain open to the world’
Be a good boy ‘Stoogie Woogie’ Read Free Scotland’s post @ 12:27 he has some helpful suggestion what you might want to do to fill your time.
@Paula Rose says: 27 June, 2016 at 12:18 pm
“With due respect to Robert Peffers isn’t it time we re-defined Britain as everywhere in the soon to be dismantled UK that is not Scotland?”
Why ever would we do that Paula Rose?
The hard fact is that, whether certain people would have it otherwise, Britain is an archipelago and the entire group of islands is Britain with the people, all the indigenous people, on the islands being Britons or British.
Now I know many, many Scots of Irish, or part Irish extraction and the RCs among them claim to not be British while some of the non-RCs among them are mainly Loyal Orange Order or their affiliates. This is part of the great scourge of Scotland – sectarianism.
Now the truth of the matter is that the other great scourge of the people of Scotland comes from the Little Englanders who are the ones that have, forever, misused the terms Britain, British and The Country instead of the correct term for what they actually mean.
What they so often mean is, at best, The United Kingdom of Great Britain & Northern Ireland and at worse, when used to mean the entire United Kingdom, they call it England.
I was employed by the MOD for my entire working life and that involved spells in UK bases all over the World and I go back to the 1950s when we had a great many more RN, RAF and Army bases in the World.
I can state, without fear of contradiction, that major areas of the World conflate The UK, Britain and England as one and the same place.
So here’s the thing – the British Nationalists have never ever actually had a Nation named Britain but they have robbed Scotland blind for as long as I can remember and history shows many centuries before that.
Why would I wish for them to also rob me of being what I actually am? That is I am Scottish, British and European and a member of the only real race on Earth – The Human Race.
Let me be clear, I do not hate the English, nor for that matter any other nation on Earth, but I’m not about to have them steal away my right to be a Scottish born, British, European member of the Human race.
The buggers have taken away everything else but they cannot have that. Well only over my dead body.
Bill Hume 1:09 pm
… at least you stated your position Bill!
My considered opinion is, at best, indyref2 wont happen for at least 3 years – by then, Ms Sturgeon will have had a chance to “look see” at whatever has occurred by then.
I’m quite happy to be an English/British/European Scot who supports an Independent Scotland because I want to live in a modern functioning democracy.
All those that say Corbyn is being picked on. I don’t think so.
His biggest error to me during this referendum was him “doing virtually nothing”.
Whether he is a Europhile or not, if he wanted the UK to remain he should have been encouraging his party members to get and out and vote remain.
No point coming out a couple of days to start making a stand.
Also, I personally don’t think that he is really party leader material. He’s too gentle a guy, but like the Tory situation the leadership of the Labour Party is also a poison chalice.
Robert Graham says:
27 June, 2016 at 11:55 am
Ruby 1 stooge 0
Ruby wins on penalties
Game over
Ruby replies
It would be great if I knew what that meant. Does it mean I cheated? 🙂
I don’t do sport
I know nothing about football, betting odds, and all that kinda stuff and TBH I don’t have time to find out as my head is spinning!
Colin Stewart at 12:05 pm
Enjoyed reading your thoughtful article. And yes, the currency issue is a key one to resolve in any IndyRef 2 campaign – both what is being proposed and, crucially also, how it is communicated to the electorate.
However, I note you also say: “Sterling is out of the question so Scotland either will need it’s own money or join the Eurozone.” Are you asserting this as a matter of opinion or as a matter of fact? You’re entitled to the former (of course) but it is not a matter of fact.
As we enter a new phase in the debate over Scotland’s future, it is best to be clearer.
Bloomberg ?@business 15m15 minutes ago
JUST IN: Angela Merkel rules out informal #Brexit talks with Britain http://bloom.bg/28X95D1
Cameron to carry on and on’
I reveal in The Times that he has told friends he plans to continue as MP for Witney until 2020 and beyond. It raises the prospect of him becoming a thorn in the side of his successor, especially if it is Boris Johnson…’
‘Carry on Cameron v Bojo the Clown’
Tim Farron on becoming the rejoin EU party
LibDems will have ‘Rejoin EU referendum’ in their manifesto.
🙂
1 down 26 to go
The Fianna Fáil leader believes that while the future of Scotland within the UK is a matter for themselves, Ireland should support them in a bid to re-enter the EU if the situation arises.
“I and my party believe that it would be unacceptable for Scotland to be treated as a normal candidate country should it seek to remain as a member of the EU.
“It currently implements all EU laws. It manifestly would not need to be reviewed for its standards of governance and ability to implement EU laws.
“It has a strong administration, a distinct legal system and an absolute commitment to European ideals,” Mr Martin told an emergency Dáil debate on the outcome of the EU referendum.
“Scotland is strong enough to advocate for itself, but Ireland should be its friend and demand fair play should it seek to remain in the EU.
Some Tory Brexiteer on the radio news has pronounced on the UK economy that “the fundamentals are sound”. You know what that phrase means: “Oh sh*t, we’re going down the plughole but let’s put a brave face on it and hope enough people are fooled”.
Meanwhile, Labour are back at obsessive navel-gazing again. Their party internal squabbles must always come first. Who – among the rest of us – gives a toss?
The good ship Ukok is heading for the rocks while everyone is running around in circles like the proverbial headless chickens.
Thank the Lord we have Nicola et al.
@ schrodingers cat (1.59pm)
A joy to read, made my day, thanks!
BTW, would they be the first to publicly express support for us?
Ruby @13:58 said:
Oooh, a generation/lifetime has suddenly shrunk wonderfully for them, then. And this EUref result in England isn’t “decisive”, is it?
Has anyone told Wee Willie Winkie yet? It’s rather going to cramp his style now, no?
Crucial 48 hours coming up folks. Merkel is going to make a statement at 4.30pm today, following the members meeting. Cameron has to show his pudding face at EU summit meeting tomorrow.
What we do know going into tomorrow is that any pre-negotiation pre article 50 activation stage will not be permitted. Merkel has signalled she wants a reasonable time to be given. But she is not the voice of the majority. Many want article 50 to begin after Cameron has attended the meeting.
From my understanding as the article is so open to any interpretation. Cameron just going to the meeting and mentioning leaving the EU is enough to trigger this.
By tomorrow evening it will be much clearer where we are. This will allow the SG to decide their next move.
From the meeting with the Irish president today. It’s pretty clear the EU would welcome an independent Scotland. I would say it’s also quite clear that a reverse Greenland settlement is not workable in the EU. I understand the process the FM is going through but ultimately it comes back to independence.
There will be an independence referendum. The timing depends on some of the meetings today and tomorrow.
quantum cat,
A couple of quibbles. Micheál Martin is not the Irish Toiseach, so his comment necessarily carries less weight than an official government statement. But no less welcome for all that. A straw in the wind, a friend in need.
Please note also the small but crucial difference in terminology between what you used and what he carefully said: it’s not “re-enter”, it’s “remain”. If we don’t stick with it now, we’ll be out with England, and likely (despite what Tim Farron might think) out for good.
Big Jock,
Andrew Tickell has a very good article in The National today (unlike the contemptible 5th-column dross from Sillars in the same edition) in which he shares your view that the “reverse Greenland option” is just not a flier.
@ Midgehunter.
Thanks for the link to German reunification. Will give it a read now.
I’m hoping EU realpolitik will allow Scotland to simply be accepted as the country which has every right to stay. If that were guaranteed the next ref. would pretty much be in the bag, and the currency question I’m sure will also be clarified.
And I can’t think for a minute that Nicola would have embarked on this EU position if she hadn’t already done a lot of talking to senior figures there.
Robert 2.52 -Just read that article.
I think secretly everyone in the media and in the SG knows that the referendum is coming. Unfortuantely Nicola has to be seen to be exhausting all alternatives. This is to pacify the Wullie Rennie’s of this world. The mischief makers, who are Scottish but, and will try and divide the EU majority.
So in essence this procees will take a week or so not months. I think by the start of the new parliament term and indi ref bill will be presented. They need to consult and draft the bill in order to accomodate the moderates and soft yes converts.
Big Jock, there was a link on Stu’s twitter from Jo Maugham. To invoke Article 50 requires WM to pass a bill. So not as simple as just Cameron telling the EU meeting.
https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status/747393620412497920
Things moving forward already -Nominations for new Tory leader/PM to be in by Thursday this week. New PM by 2nd September.
Cameron is being pushed by Brussells. I expect the leader election might be brought forward to before the recess. It really depends on whether the EU members think this is acceptable timewise.
We could have the rest of the summer without a leader. It’s a political vaccum and the EU might not be happy with them on holiday while Rome burns.
Robert J. Sutherland says:
27 June, 2016 at 2:20 pm
Ruby @13:58 said:
LibDems will have ‘Rejoin EU referendum’ in their manifesto.
Oooh, a generation/lifetime has suddenly shrunk wonderfully for them, then. And this EUref result in England isn’t “decisive”, is it?
Has anyone told Wee Willie Winkie yet? It’s rather going to cramp his style now, no?
Ruby replies
I bet you were thinking I just made that up for a laugh!
https://archive.is/T5zPB
Here is what the EU article actually says.No agreements and negotiations need to be made, under Article 50 TEU the withdrawing state puts in a formal notification that it intends to leave and that is the start of the process. It says!
Not sure the EU care about internal processes within the state itself. Their EU members just need to agree that it has been triggered and the clock ticks, and that can be open to interpretation.
Article 50
2. A Member State which decides to withdraw shall notify the European Council of its intention. In the light of the guidelines provided by the European Council, the Union shall negotiate and conclude an agreement with that State, setting out the arrangements for its withdrawal, taking account of the framework for its future relationship with the Union. That agreement shall be negotiated in accordance with Article 218(3) of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. It shall be concluded on behalf of the Union by the Council, acting by a qualified majority, after obtaining the consent of the European Parliament.”
No matter how bad it’s doing the fact remains that the BoE which issues and backs Sterling is owned, in part, by Scotland. The last thing that Westminster needs is an honest valuation of that.
As things stand someone needs to pull the plug on this government. Perhaps it’s best that one of our many MPs, or all of them, table a motion of no consequence.
I’ll give this link again as it hones in on the core point about Article50.
https://publiclawforeveryone.com/2016/06/26/brexit-can-the-eu-force-the-uk-to-trigger-the-two-year-brexit-process/
Note that this is not just uncharted territory for both sides.
This is uncharted territory before cartography was invented.
The legislation that allowed the referendum to take place did not invest the outcome of the referendum with any sort of legal effect. The UK Government is therefore not legally obliged by the referendum to trigger the Article 50 process, either at any particular point in time or at all
Maybe we can ask the Irish to annex Scotland, just like Russia annexed Ukraine. With the tacit agreement that we get independence after a while.
That’s true Mike. However Cameron had just stated to parliament that he will abide by the result, and thus implement the due process.
So when he has his meeting in EU tomorrow. They will try and push him to give an intention of invocation of article 50. that meeting might be very hostile for him.
There is now dithering on the part of the WM Government. They may ask that he negotiates in the interim. Who knows!
Ruby @ 15:32 replied:
No, I knew already, I just couldn’t resist responding to your prompt. At the moment everything from la-la land south of the border seems to fit into the category “couldn’t make it up”!
Re: Gibralter.
Scotland should be very careful in any dealings will Gibralter. It is only Governed and linked to UK due to the treaty of Utrecht where the English in 1703(iirc) sold out the Catalans to the Castilan Spanish in exchange for Gibralter and access to N Africa Slave trade.
Now Spain, who we will need to agree any EU consensus with Scotland certainly wants this territory back. The Catalans think Gibralter should decide their own fate but not integrate with Spain. I wonder why? The UK will also wont to hold onto Gibralter and they are our immediate neighbour who we also have to negotiate with.
In any case its a hornets nest that we should steer well clear of.
From Ireland : our president is over there tomorrow. Ask nicely, maybe he will offer to take ye home with him. Diplomatic bag, cant be stopped.
Graf @11.28
Thanks for that. Interesting reading about re unification
In my simple thinking I would then say—-as Scots are already members, there is a good chance we would be accepted—-because we are already EU citizens.
If you also take into account what “schrodingers” said in his post at 1.59 concerning the Irish, I think we have more than enough friends in Europe to help us along
I heard that eejit Torrance on the John Beattie show suggesting we could have a referendum before the end of the year. That would be November! Really! It would take till then to get the bill through never mind hold it.
Also expect Murray to join the SNP if Corbyn gets his way.
Anyone else noticing the great hypocrisy of Cameron. Condemns the anti Polish behaviour of certain English yobs. But never condemned his side when they invaded George Square and threatened peaceful yes supporters. These people are hooligans in England but in Scotland they appear to be acceptable.
Paula Rose,
“Rock Honey – do you want to borrow my history primer.”
The distorted history glorifying the British Empire that you were taught in England?
No, thank you very much.
Not knowing history is preferable to knowing history from a distorted English point of view.
louis.b.argyll,
“.when we look at (say Roman) ancient history, we (Rock etc) say ..”there is historical inaccuracy ” UNTRUE.”
Where did I say that?
Stop lying.
Rock:
Three times you have transcrubbed the final guadalism. There may be merit in the occlusion. I don’t know. Sometimes, you have to stand back and prawntificate (without being shellfish).
To furthermore the end, it would be seemly to to ford the scream, under the fridge. That’s where the moles hang out.
I was just trying it out. Seems it is easy to type p!$h!
Brian Doonthetoon,
“I was just trying it out. Seems it is easy to type p!$h!”
Well you have gained quite a bit of experience since you started posting it here.
It comes very naturally to you now.
Apart from being a sycophant, have you ever posted your own point of view?
Launching a plea for help with the final part of my uni thesis here. http://bit.ly/28SryR8
Im doing a questionnaire the final part of my thesis, on the #EU ref here http://bit.ly/28SryR8
If you could spare 5 mins to fill it out (would really welcome some input as i got some really good responses on the scottish parliament one)
Its completely confidential, and there are some really bright guys on here,
Mark @ 12.15
Survey done.
But have you also thought to put it on the other thread?
And try asking again in the morning as there may be more/different people about.
Good Luck
@sensibledave
“As I have repeated often, I don’t mind whether Scots vote for Independence or not. I am discussing whether the Scottish electorate would find Scottish Independence more, or less, attractive now – if its biggest trading partner (the UK) was outside the EU?”
Shouldn’t really make any difference but of course once project fear III swings into action I suppose people might be persuaded that a loaf of bread might go up ten fold!
One of the good things for me that have come out of the EU referendum (whether I agree with them or not) is that people in England and Wales who believed they were better off out of the EU didn’t listen to the ‘markets’. A country with its own central bank is sovereign – not the markets.
Interesting how everyone including the Tories believes in big govt just now as they look to the Bank of England to smooth the path during brexit (BoE is part of consolidate govt – its independence is really a myth)
Here’s quite a good summary of how banking transactions would have worked post independence in 2014…
http://www.3spoken.co.uk/2014/08/scottish-independence-myths-how-to-buy.html
Yes life would go on. People in Devon would be quite happy trading with people in Dunbar and vice versa. Moving electrons is pretty easy.
Post brexit poeple will continue to import and export in and out of the EU. No govt is going to crap on its own economy to make a point.
All that said, whether there will be an indyref2 and what the terms will be I haven’t got a clue any more but I certainly don’t want to be part of a uk run by flat earth economists. i can’t see any progressive govts stepping in to run the UK anytime soon.
Just so I’m clear Brexit would not result in loss of trading with the EU unless you happen to be an Independent Scotland still in the EU. There are some very strange mental acrobatics going on.
rock, i think you’ll find that you and lochside met in agreement that Robert was wrong to assert that HW was used as a “customs” post.
So Jakey was never a “staunch opponent” or “pro Union no matter what”. I can see why she writes fiction.
louis.b.argyll,
“rock, i think you’ll find that you and lochside met in agreement that Robert was wrong to assert that HW was used as a “customs” post”
Stop lying.
The posts are on record for anyone to see what was posted by whom.
On the “Getting ourselves together” article that is.
.
Nothing substantive this time:
“Include paragraph breaks or I WILL KILL YOU WITH HAMMERS.”
…. 😉 … 😉 … 😉 … …. Hee-haw, guffaw, hee, hee …
Apart from it being, as Julian Assange assures us, the “most appalling spy machine, my MAIN peeve against Fbook is the number of users too lazy or who just haven’t figured out how to break long posts into PARAGRAPHS (which is either copy and paste from a pre-written nicely formatted TEXT file, .TXT, whatever, or in the Fbook window, SHIFT-RETURN to go to a new line without terminating the post – hence TWO times SHIFT-RETURN to begin a new para.)
.
This is what Sturgeon wants for the people of Scotland.
YouTube – https://tinyurl.com/hzpwuxl