Even on the most casual glance, the numbers just didn’t seem to add up. If 62% of Scots voted to stay in the EU and 55% voted to stay in the UK, with no correlation between the two things, then the Venn-diagram intersection between those two groups seems pretty unlikely to add up to more than 50%, let alone a “vast” majority.
So as we like to do, we checked.
Because we had a nagging suspicion that we’d done a poll on that very question, and it turned out we had, exactly a year ago. And in July 2015 this was the answer:
It so happens that Kezia Dugdale’s “vast majority” was in fact less than one third of voters, and not even the most popular single choice (independence inside the EU).
Of course, quite a lot has changed in those 12 months. But all polling since the Brexit vote suggests that it’s changed towards independence, so it would seem even more unlikely that Dugdale is right.
We’ll be doing another poll soon, asking the same question, to find out for sure. But in the meantime readers would be well advised to take Kezia’s pronouncements about statistics, as ever, with a whole pillar of salt.