Everybody’s talking
Posted on
July 28, 2013 by
Rev. Stuart Campbell
Since this’ll be the hot subject of the day, you might as well see it for yourself.
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Nice of the ST to translate the survey result into advice for the BT campaign. They need all the help they can get. But as Sturgeon says, might have been an idea for them to actually have a stab at a positive case for the Union at some point.
Still hammering away at equating the referendum with a vote for Salmond. Pathetic.
As someone pointed out before, it’s stunning that SNP are polling higher than all 3 unionist parties combined.
Well, I’ve been waiting for this chance all my adult life, as I suspect a fair number of us have, so its not surprising that those of us who support independence are more likely to vote.
What is more concerning is the fact that this article seems to be raising doubts about the legitimacy of the result if turn out is low, by suggesting that those who don’t vote are ‘no’ voters.
Still think there is something fishy with polling intentions! We have seen a gradual but ever significant rise for the SNP at Holyrood but somehow low levels of independence support.
I just don’t think so! BT must think we all zip up the back
The article – “While under their worst case scenario the Yes camp would win even though more voters favour the Union …”
The old trick of a universal democratic vote not showing the correct result. Is this the start of conceding democratic defeat and trying to sow doubt on the foundation of a possible victory?
Either side need 50% + 1 vote to win. People who do not have the compulsion to get out and vote cannot complain about the actual outcome.
Blair McDougall crowing about this last night. Interesting he didn’t mention party voting intentions.
The significance of the high SNP VI share should not be underestimated. Westminster SNP VI looks to be at least 45%. Scotland is lost to the Tories and the Libs. It looks like it’s also now less than useless to Ed Miliband too.
We have referenda in 2014, 2015 and 2016+ to look forward too. I remain confident we’ll get it done and dusted in 2014 as that’s what the Tories are aiming for. I expect Ed is increasingly thinking that would be best too; would give him freedom to be as right-wing as he wants if he can just completely give up on Scotland; which seems to be what he’s doing.
I’m happy with the panelbase. Within variance fits the trend of slowy falling No and slowly rising Yes since the beginning of the year.
No supporters demotivated and less likely to vote eh? What a shock! Ha ha!
One more vote for Yes will be enough. There is no rigged 40% rule this time, thankfully.
“Apathy may kill union”? Reported as if that were a bad thing.
“Apathy may lead to a better, confident, progressive, forward looking Scotland ready to make the world a better place”
There, not such a snappy headline, I concede. But definitely more positive.
@Westy7 The answer is probably in the weighting that polsters give to the results of their polls. I wouldn’t be surprised if the weighting reflects UK voting intentions rather than Scottish voting intentions which would skew the results towards a higher number of no votes than yes votes.
O/T a tad so sorry Rev.
We went to Carnwath Show yesterday. Yes Clydesdale had a tent and I had a few words with the people, Some surprise that I had signed, donated to Yes, Donated to Wigs and donated to National Collective. I parted with “When the Call to Arms comes…” I was advised that Clydesdale is YES !
It’s boots on the ground that shall win this thing ! They Shall !
Hail Alba
So despite the best efforts of the BT, press and BBC the SNP is near an all time high. The poll is suggesting the strength of the Yes and No camps. The Yes people more motivated than the No side. The No side being a bit soft and can be picked off as the campaign goes on. I was a bit apprehensive this morning turning on the computer bit I need not have been so.
Cameron, Clegg & Co must scratch their heads in bewilderment as to the Scottish Governments poll ratings. Quite easy there – govern for the whole nation not just the few.
So, Yes & No are bumping along within the margin of error.
Always amazing to see the towering level of SNP support, when it seems to be the national sport to spit venom at Alex Salmond.
Given the lead of the SNP with 48%, does that mean the MSM war on Salmond and the SNP is failing, and indeed backfiring?
“When the Call to Arms comes…” Don’t worry Robert you only need one arm to vote 🙂 Your right though, it’s the boots on the ground that will win this.
William Wallace has just removed George Kerevan from the front line for not holding his nerve. We need strong positive soldiers in that position.
@RobertKerr
Some surprise that I had signed, donated to Yes, Donated to Wigs and donated to National Collective.
Nice to know you are supporting some great causes, especially the follically challenged. Is that be cause we have yet another Hair to the throne!! 🙂
Here we go, the referendum result wont count because of voter apathy. more people secretly want to stay in the union? Give over.
At sometime between last autumn’s announcement did i miss an update on that indication of anything up to 88% turnout is YES already?
Or should i be sent to the back of class still on x 2 Unitarist table?
I’ve noticed that Labour Yes group have a mention on the BBC website, does anyone know if they have had any TV coverage.
Three quarters of Scots were in favour of more powers for the parliament and I guess there will be a significant number who will be waiting till the final hour to see if the Unionists come up with some significant cast iron guarantees of more, till they finally decide. I am quite happy to see that Yes are still nudging 40% despite the media onslaught and with the white paper and the campaign proper still to kick in.
Exciting times.
It’s getting close to neck and neck now, the No vote is soft, natural conservatism, and once a Yes you can never go back. And still fourteen months to go!
46% plays 37% – I will take that at this time because we would all be worried and defensive if it was the other way around with 14 months to the poll.
The 17% undecided is the key.
They need exposure to a re-vitalised and clerverly articulated YES message in the coming moths. Project Fear has fired off its main scares too early with little left which is fresh and original in the locker for the last year – a real tactical mistake in an effort to obliterate and demoralise us early. But it has not worked. All they can do is re-cycle the same smears and fears.
Theirs is a really hard sell because on top of just having to repeat their same 10 fear stories all the time we can be sure that the dire economic news from Westminister will keep on coming in the months to come along with the massive cuts to public expentiture and welfare biting deeper and deeper as the debt burden plies up higher and higher. Meanwhile the multi-billion pound plans for Trident renewal and the London Cross-rail carry on merrily to a backdrop of military pageants and “British celebrations”
Can you imagine an undecided, unemployed 25 year old in Bellshill thinking yeah that sounds great I want more of that.
@Indi_Scot
Yes the BBC Scotland news covered it all day including the denial by “Scottish Labour”
Westie7 at 9.55am 28th July
“Still think there is something fishy with polling intentions! We have seen a gradual but ever significant rise for the SNP at Holyrood but somehow low levels of independence support. “
Don’t think so. The polls fit very well with the idea amongst many people that having the SNP as very successful Government at Holyrood while remaining in UK gives Scots best of both worlds. Other parts of ST’s poll and other separate polls also show SNP likely to win well again at Holyrood in 2016, and in the event of a NO Indeyref vote probably win many new seats at Westminster in 2015.
It is ironic that the SNP being so successful makes it more difficult to gain a YES in Independence voting.
Madmurph ,I was a wee bit worried he’d donated to whigs – thanks for clearing that up!
The growth of Labour for Independence is a huge bonus. I love the references on the BBC to “a Labour spokesman declined to comment”.
Finally Labour supporters in Scotland finding some “sisu” as the Finnish visitor to this site may relate to.
Who are the 6% of Yes voters that are unlikely to turn out for the vote.??? Someone should have a word with them!
If we can galvanise even a modest percentage of those who normally don’t vote in elections to vote Yes in the referendum we win this thing. And we win it decisively.
Darling cannot do more to mobilise supporters. There aren’t enough of them.
Thanks. It’s good to see that they are getting some exposure as I think they will play an important part in returning a Yes victory.
Whilst I’d agree with with an extremely high voter intention for the Yes vote will translate to an actual Yes vote, I don’t think the Better Together voter intention will translate to an actual No vote. Apathy on their side? Perhaps. I think its more likely that the Better Together wholesale negative campaign will make their potential voters more likely to stay at home.
As we hear regularly of more Don’t Knows and potential No voters switching to Yes; and any Yes voter being convinced by the Better Together campaign switching to No to be as rare as a hen’s tooth – this is not only convincing of the direction of travel in the campaign and that the Yes campaign will hoover up the large majority of the Don’t Knows and even convert some potential Nos – but that also illustrates that the Better Together campaign will struggle with turnout.
The Times article in essence is not only depressing reading for Alistair Darling & Co. but a message to the Yes campaign: ‘Keep Up The Good Work!’.
@Ian Mackay;
When it comes to the crunch, the no vote is a vote that says you do not believe Scotland can run it’s own affairs at least as well as the plonkers in London. How can anyone actually believe that?
It’s hard to imagine a worse government than the current incumbents.
O/T But no-one stirs the shit like the Telegraph.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/scotland/10207169/Prince-George-should-never-be-King-of-Scots-says-pro-independence-chairman.html
It’s very interesting that those polling numbers reach parity if there is a 90% turn-out of the yes vote and two-thirds of the no-voters. I’d say those are fairly reasonable back-of-envelope approximations of voter motivation levels, and I’m pretty sure even Better Together are aware of this – which would go some way to explaining the sense of raw panic you can see at the back of their eyes. With over a year to go there’s still everything to play for, and at this point the game is the unionists’ to lose, the yes camp’s to win.
For all the analysis and hope on this thread, do you really think the British Government are going to let this happen? Some of the best minds in Whitehall are working on tactics and interventions to ensure that the ‘No’ vote jumps ahead and people actually feel motivated enough to say ‘Yes’ to the union’ (and i worded it that way deliberately)
Come next year, North Britain will recognise just how much they need the Union and how lucky they are to be under its umbrella. People will be happy to vote ‘No’
You are mistakenly interpreting Westminster complacency with possible failure. Cameron is complacent because he knows what is coming.
The show is not over until Rule Britannia has sung
Watch this space.
If it turns out that we lose by a small margin I have a serious concern that Westminster will block any subsequent attempt to hold a referendum. A case in point could be a situation where the UK as a whole votes to leave the EU but Scotland votes to stay in. Logically that would stand a good chance of creating an immediate situation for a referendum. Maybe someone more media savvy than me could get Better Together to answer that scenario. Do they also agree that we will always have the right to vote on independence if the elected government had it in its manifesto.
Edward Longbottom
Some of the best minds in Whitehall are working on tactics and interventions to ensure that the ‘No’ vote jumps ahead and people actually feel motivated enough to say ‘Yes’ to the union’ (and i worded it that way deliberately)
Hehe. Houston we have a problem.
This is why things like the Yes Deceleration are important. The more solid, core support we have in the form of people who have already signed their name in favour the easier it’ll be to get the final few.
So…if you know any Yes leaning folk who haven’t yet signed, get them to do so.
@Ian Mackay … yeah, I’ve always believed that BT’s negative campaign will actually make some NO voters abstain from voting, or just make them apathetic. If anyone believes in a YES vote and sees the importance of a YES vote than why would they stay at home? So 7% YES to stay at home is a bit non-sensical to me.
That current 46% NO vote will have around 10% soft NO for the taking while I reckon we can take at least another 10% from the DKs, although I’m confident we’ll have a similar result to the YES-YES campaign in 1997. There can’t be a positive campaign for the Union from BT because they are geared to attack Salmond/SNP and the ‘narrow nationalists’. If they were to change their course then BT would have to have a change of personnel as Darling, Dougall and the likes of Anwar and Lamont do not have the imagination or vision to come up with or implement a positive case for the Union. They are stuck in party political attack dog mode, only they replace the Tories with the SNP, and that is all these people are capable of. What have Lamont, Baillie, Anwar, Alexander, Harris, Murphy et al actually done for their communities? The only time I’ve seen Lamont appearing in her community recently was for the grand opening of a fucking food bank! Something that she saw as no shame but a photo opportunity.
We will win this referendum. VOTE YES 2014!
Edward Longbottom
Some of the best minds in Whitehall are working on tactics and interventions to ensure that the ‘No’ vote jumps ahead and people actually feel motivated enough to say ‘Yes’ to the union’
There is no doubt that is the case. Likewise the Yes campaign will have a strategy. If a week is a long time in politics then the referendum is still a lifetime away.
The thing is, if Labour for Independence really starts to gain traction then what the ConDem Westminster government says is largely irrelevant. If a a sizeable chunk of Labour in Scotland, coupled with the SNP (and Greens and SSP of course who have been there from the start) can see an independent Scotland as their chance to make a difference then the momentum gained will be difficult to halt despite all the negative propaganda thrown at it.
Note for this calculation the changing labour vote.
Labour for independence are not campaigning to convert Tories, Liberals or SNP – but core labour voters who still follow the Johann L (who) and Miliband lead. And with Tory support in Scotland is ~15-19%, the rest of the NO up to the 47% vote poll results you have to assume are mostly labour voters.
A full year of the organised Labour (#Indy) unofficial machine pushing at labour voters to vote yes – that has to be worth another 5-8% alone, Plus a good share of the undecided, and the job is done.
Slow steady, a good YES case, coherently presented: Lets get to it.
“If we can galvanise even a modest percentage of those who normally don’t vote in elections to vote Yes in the referendum we win this thing. And we win it decisively.”
Yes, these people are ignored totally by pollsters, generally for good reason. But I’ve come across quite a few people who’ve never voted in their life but who won’t be missing this one – all of them firm Yes voters.
So come on Longshanks – do let us know what this great tactic from Westminster is going to be? More lies, more deceptions, and assuming enough people are thick enough to believe it? I don’t believe they have anything other than that. Or electoral fraud.
btw, I’ve heard the argument fairly often now – the fatalistic “no” one that “they won’t let it happen”. I reckon it’s the very worst argument there is for the union. “They” won’t allow a democratic choice to be made, so might as well choose to stay with them and not be punished as much”. That’s a truly bad argument.
Edward Longbottom aka Edward Longshanks aka…..?? 12.14 28th
“Some of the best minds in Whitehall are working on tactics and interventions”
An oxymoronic sentence. There are only dumbos in Whitehall.
If polls are actually representative of the electorate this latest one indicates there are 1.5 million yes voters currently in Scotland. Thats a 1/2 million more than is required to win a Holyrood majority and a few hundred thousand more than is needed to return a healthy Westminster majority for any party.
I believe now the YES Camp are going to win because the NO Camp’s vote is clearly soft. It is difficult to see how the NO Camp can turn opinions into intentions on the basis of Project Fear which is now turning into Project Farce.
But are the ‘best minds in Whitehall’ attuned to Scottish politics? From the papers that have been released by the UK govt. to date, I doubt it. They’ve either provoked outrage (extinguished Scotland) or been roundly trashed, and they’ve all got the tone completely wrong. Then you get something like the Faslane annexation initative, which may sound like a splendid idea to the nuclear cabal inside the MoD, but which even Cameron has the wit to see won’t work….
I see absolutely no evidence that anyone inside Whitehall actually has a clue as to how to deal with Scotland at the moment. Plenty of frustration, plenty of hostility, plenty of ‘it’s not going to happen, so why bother?’ – but not a clue as to how to go forward with a strategy to make people vote to stay in the Union other than through fear. Besides, who is there to give these ‘best minds’ any trustworthy advice? Lord Forsythe? J Lamont? Lord Foulkes? Ian Davidson? ….I think not.
If the best minds in Westminster had wanted to maintain the Union then they’d have done something serious about it earlier and never let the Edinburgh Agreement come into existence in first place. Or made sure that devo-more/max was on the ballot paper so as to sink the SNP. But are they really that bothered?
The thing is, Westminster is only interested in the City and the banks and to be frank international borders don’t make any difference to the profits that the banks can make – and they’ll already be investing in all the companies that operate in Scotland anyway.
Sure, the UK Treasury will lose revenue from taxes on Scottish economic activity (oil being the important one) but they then have even more reason to continue to cite austerity, preserve the lifestyles of the wealthy and to roll back the welfare state. Job done.
And for Labour already they have no choice but to follow the money – hence why they are racing to the right to keep up with everyone else in Westminster. Nope, England and Scotland are like too ships lashed together long ago but the ropes are parting and so shall we. I think it’s inevitable, one way or another, and probably 2014 is as good a time as any for us to sail away into the social-democratic sunset.
(note, this opinion assumes that there is at least some intelligence at Westminster….er….)
Even the Westminster gossip columnists have cottoned on to what we already know, and what Cam, Osborne and co are just learning – support for “No” is very soft:-
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/leaders-wives-why-george-osborne-is-twitchy-over-scotland-and-the-deadlylegacy-of-alcopops-8722996.html
@DCanmore I’d agree with your analysis. I’ve long been of the opinion that the Yes vote will rise by about 20% in the formal campaign run up – that’s when the Don’t Knows/soft Nos will make up their minds/be convinced by the case for Independence.
O/T I see the tiny country of Anguilla’s Chief Minister is pushing for an Independence Referendum for the end of 2013. Anguilla is a British Overseas Territory with a population of around 14 000. The previous UK Governor of the islands: “I think the message really for Anguilla and for the other Overseas Territories, including those in the Caribbean, is that Britain will recognise the results of a referendum as expressing the wishes of the people of the territory,” he stated. “If the present Government decides to call a referendum, Britain will recognise the results whether Anguilla votes for independence or votes to remain a British Overseas Territory. We wouldn’t be pushing for either result and we will recognise whichever result the people of Anguilla voted for.”
http://tinyurl.com/pp8v6gp
I think the Better Together campaign should be told. 🙂 Can’t wait for all those Anguillan scare stories to hit the headlines.
A Yes outcome in 2014 will be achieved by getting the formula right from some or all of the following components:
– ongoing and increasing Yes Scotland activism at the community level
– Scottish social attitudes survey perpetually indicates folk want all the practical aspects of independence even if they can’t use the word (yet)
– emergence of “the common weal” as as an achievable political, social, economic vision of an independent Scotland
– ongoing SNP popular voting intentions to buttress independence support
– further growth and awareness of Labour for Independence amongst Labour voters
– Radical Independence as a distinct but complementary group alongside “mainstream” Yes scotland
Its a question of harnessing all of the above and getting the narrative and message right over the next 12 months.
Alex Salmond, was on Clyde 2 Radio today, for an hour answering questions from the public, they asked everything from benefits to driving instructors changing to the German model in which the instructors are employed by the state.
Surprisinly or not so surprisingly should I say, almost everyone who phoned in is intending to vote YES,the FM even explained very convincingly how Scotland is better placed to to deal with pensions than the rUK
Hope will always triumph over fear, and independence brings hope for the future.
A good friend of mine once said the SNP would not bring independence but Labour would. Maybe he is correct. Come on labour for independence you can do it!
The No campaign has demoralised those who listen to them so much that they can’t see the point in voting? That’s what you get for telling us we’re too wee, too poor and too stupid to govern ourselves.
If you strip away The Times’ spin on the figures, the only surprising part is that the No vote went up, although that might have been some unfortunate soul who went to a BT meeting, like those in Bathgate the other night, and were lied to about the NHS and the Scottish banks.
Onwards and upwards!
Sorry I’m O/T Stu but some folks might find this an interesting little piece, particularly Cameron,Clegg,Milliband,Lamont,Davidison, Rennie and the intelligencia at Better Together H.Q. 😆
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/john-prescott-its-time-sink-2096704
OT
Sorry if this is old news, Blair Jenkins agrees to WoS debate…
https://twitter.com/blairjenkinsyes/status/361443763974963201
Longbottom
I prefer to call myself Scottish not “North British”.
mibbie im an optomist but im almost certian that the publication of the white paper in November will swing this (possibly by quite a reasonable margin) to YES.All the unionists have to work with is the fear of uncertianty which is starting to look pathetic from where im standing,also noticed a few former NO friends becoming increasingly annoyed with it when confronted with evidence contrary to the B/S they have been spoon fed since day one of the debate.Scotland is only just starting to wake up.
“While under their worst case scenario the Yes camp would win even though more voters favour the Union …”
Just read that statement again…the only way that could happen is a rigged vote. If they, in fact, mean people rather than voters then fair enough but they’d have absolutely no way of verifying this. I wonder just how far they’d go to discredit the vote and maintain the status quo should more voters choose “Yes”. They don’t have their 40% threshold this time. What other dirty tricks could they try to play?
The problem for No is that scare stories can only ever be effective at shoring up existing support. However, there’s always one that decides to break from the herd and see how things are for themselves. Then someone else has a go. Then another. Soon pairs start leaving at once, then small groups. All this time, the naysayer is screaming “don’t do it! You’ll regret it! Stay here where it’s safe!”
But no one ever comes back with their tail between their legs, and nobody new comes along. So the group that stays behind just gets smaller and smaller.
If they, in fact, mean people rather than voters
Yep, they mean eligible voters, not just those who actually vote in the referendum.
looking at polls, didn’t a poll in the herald a few weeks ago say that 46% of voters say they don’t have enough information to make a decision?
Since Yes want people to vote for what will be a huge change, then you could understand these people waiting until they have this information before they would vote Yes.
No want no change, so if people were asked the standard question by the Times/Panelbase pollsters ie: I
‘If the vote was held tomorrow how would you vote in the independence referendum’?
A large majority of this 46% would have to answer ‘No’, because they don’t have enough information to say otherwise.
So, if only 10% of this 46% who want more information, begin to get this information and like what they see, then Yes and No will draw even.
After that, it will only go one way. 😉
My point is that it’s an oxymoron and all the sophistry in the world can’t change the results of a vote. There’s no way of accurately determining how members of the franchise who choose not to vote would have voted had they gotten off their arses. You can’t reverse a result based on polls. If that were the case the SNP would never have formed a government. I get a queasy feeling when I read articles such as this. I’d put nothing past the shower running things in London. What’s a rigged vote or an intervention in a binding referendum next to an illegal war or prisoner releases for arms deals? We ain’t seen nothing yet. I do hope we have a few tricks up our sleeves too.
Its all down to who wants the result more? I’m pretty confident in which campaign and its support is more motivated. BT would have to pull a serious 180 on their attitude and approach over the next twelve months. I simply don’t see that happening. They are too convinced of their own argument as to how poor and helpless Scotland would be without a Westminster hand at the tiller. The self interest of the parliamentary MPs is out there for all to see as is their corruption. How many could be arsed voting for a continuance of that culture?
People may believe that a political union with friends is a good thing and indeed it is, but not at any cost and the cost of our current union is a form of governance which is anathema to any with a social or community conscience. We enjoy plenty of other unions with the rUK, I’d rather our politics was our own.
Slowly but surely that Yes number is rising. This is good. We have had an onslaught of negativity for the last year and the result is that the No vote is down and the Yes vote is up. Having withstood every piece of media spun negativity we are in a position where the media itself are beginning to say “this isn’t working”.
Time to start throwing some positive messages around now and see how the Better Together vote stand up to a bit of pressure.
O/T but has anyone else been deleted and barred from BT Facebook page?
I think the latest poll figures are encouraging for the Yes campaign. I note the upward creep for Yes. Polling at 37% is better than what it was, but a long way to go. There has to be more imaginative use of the internet in getting the message over the heads of the BBC and the MSM who act like a drag anchor to the positive Yes message (it slows the progress of the yes ship). The Internet IS the Achilles heal of the No Campaign/BBC/MSM They cant control it and they know it. The Better Together/BBC have been resorting to dirty tricks such as the doctored so called leaded document that wasn’t actually a leaked document. (this is the second timance of thee they have done this, both times have been near identical). Next up will be Better Together cold calling people to persuade them (what ever happened to data protection?). Yes supporters really need to get into ways of sharing information outside the ‘independence’ zone (ie talking amongst ourselves). Finally I would love to know how Labour for Independence are doing as regards member numbers and attendance of the Glasgow conference, any video’s attendance numbers etc? LFI could be the catalyst to start pushing Yes numbers up as it will prove that Yes does not mean SNP (as is being pushed by Better Together)
HandandShrimp
Have you seen this?
https://www.facebook.com/SilencedbyBetterTogether
@Rev (on Twitter) re ‘Road to Referendum’ book –
Is the word ‘McCrone’ in the index?
Yesitis
🙂 Thanks – I am not alone then. Not sure what I did wrong, I merely challenged a couple of their headlines.
@HandandShrimp Think of it as a badge of honour – just asking awkward questions can get you barred from their FB page!
Thistle says:
28 July, 2013 at 3:03 pm
OT
Sorry if this is old news, Blair Jenkins agrees to WoS debate…
https://twitter.com/blairjenkinsyes/status/361443763974963201
Well done Blair Jenkins! Any resonse for the No campaign camp yet?
No provision has been made for me as a yes voter abroad nor to be placed on the voting register. Neither are there postal or proxy votes. As I live in France and I am possibly unable to come to Scotland at that time, this has upset me greatly. I’m not alone in this. This should be rectified.
“If we can galvanise even a modest percentage of those who normally don’t vote in elections to vote Yes in the referendum we win this thing.”
An interesting fact mentioned by Jean Urquhart at the Inverness Radical Independence event a few months ago was that over 1 million people in Scotland eligible to vote aren’t registered to do so. Partly apathy, partly a hangover from the days when the electoral register was used to identify pol tax defaulters. Most of these are the poorest and the ones who will benefit most from voting Yes. An effort needs to be made to get these people to register and vote. Any ideas?
@HaS yeah i got banned last week.All i did was answer one of their questions and i got deleted and banned.
@Cath
I don’t think I’ve ever heard anyone suggest that they’d vote no because to vote yes would be futile. I think, when people air their anxieties, it’s not to suggest they’ve surrendered to the inevitable but more in the hope that someone reading those comments will put them at ease or propose solutions. My question above was ponderous. The Times article smells. It may be the opening salvo on a new front designed to energise the no vote (in which case, I’d say it’s doomed) or it may be something more sinister. I really do wonder what other potential spoiling tactics the UK Gov’ could bring out if things look bad for them and, by that, I mean what dubious legal powers could they potentially invoke? And I wonder if the SNP and/or the Yes camp already have counter measures in place.
The cross tabs will be interesting. Has the Yes campaign improved its chances with the female voter?
They compare the figures with the May survey but you can also look back to March when the figures were Yes 35.7% No 46% and Dont Know 18.3% which shows a swing to Yes from Dont Know over that period. Keep up the good work, by September next year it will be Yes 41.55% No 46% and Dont Know 12.45% even at the current pace.
I wonder what gear the campaign is in at present? How many gears to go?
I think this poll may force Labour in Scotland to think about their strategy in the indyref. My thoughts: http://garve.scott-lodge.com/blog/index.asp?id=29
@handclapping
To be honest, I think we’re still in first gear. You could argue second, due to the gift of Project Fear. The white paper will mark a significant change in gear.
For the life of me, I can’t understand why the NO vote has risen.
Are people so stupid to believe that everything will be bad with Independence or is it the fact that the vote is still split along party lines? Then again that wouldn’t make sense since the SNP vote stands at 48%.
As for hot topic of the day I think Canavan and his call for a referendum on the monarchy is in pole position.
@Ann
Today I was pottering around the Merchant City Festival, Glasgow, Stopped for a coffee and overheard a young couple maligning Salmond, over the Wimbledon flag waving, and utter the words ‘I don’t want to be independent just because all’s not well in London’.
Horribly depressing to be frank.
Garve
re the odds on Yes and No.
I have a a friend who is a professional gambler and on discussing the anomaly of the odds said quite simply that this is rigged. It happens a lot more often that people realise and is perfectly legal.
He reminded me that online bookmaking was introduced by City types who were Traders and who realised that by playing the market and using their very sophisticated spreads and offsets they were a kick in the shirt from being bookies.
They launched their sites, and then introduced all the derivative bets on who scores first, more corners etc etc.
Their computerised monitoring of the every bet makes sure they do not lose.
Remember where Cameron and the Tories get over 50% of their funding; the same people. In a way they are spread betting on No not losing by rigging the market. Try a put a bet on for over £100 for Yes but they took a huge bet followed by a second on No which fixed the odds on a No. I wonder if they placed the bet themselves?
It is only a 5% swing and YES is in the majority.
This does not even take account of which vote will turn out.
@Albalha
Why depressed? These are Devo-somethings who are going to have to choose. We have to get the stark choices to them, is it better to go bankrupt under a London that they acknowledge isn’t working or to see if we can go it alone? That’s what doorsteps are for 🙂
Excellent article by G.A.Ponsonby over on NNS. Read how BBC Scotland, their reporters and Better Together colluded to manipulate the ‘truth’ about Scotland’s oil with ‘leaked’ information from ‘sources’, biased reporting and general ‘economical with the truth’-ness: it’s a real eye-opener.
It makes me sick to the stomach that this is the behaviour of a ‘national’ broadcaster, using people’s licence-fee to propagate Better Together propaganda, and to do so without fear of rebuke or punishment.
http://www.newsnetscotland.com/index.php/scottish-opinion/7784-how-the-bbc-manipulated-the-debate-over-oil
@handclapping
Fair point, I’ll feed off the optimism. To be honest the sheer stupidity of their comments irritated me and it really wasn’t the place to have a head on collision.
Having said that yesterday you were pointing out the debate at your college was fairly rank. As a 50 plus person I really understand how vital this vote is for Scotland, the idea we won’t get over the line is too hellish to contemplate.
Yes there are sites like this but is the real message getting out there? Are YES doing enough? I’m not much of a Sillars fan but I do agree there needs to be more NOISE.
Not to worry. At an age when 50 year olds are your children and being a nat since it meant boasting of how we had had Dr Mac as an MP for 4 months, to me we are damn close and getting closer. I get the feeling that its BT that are telling each other “Nil carborundum …” now.
A couple of examples of recent conversations I’ve had, with people I know quite well at work.
Conversation One
Me: ‘How are you planning to vote in the referendum?’
Them (hesitantly): ‘No.’
Me: ‘Why?’
Them: ‘Well, I believe in queen and country.’
Me: ‘You can go on doing that, if it’s your thing.’
Them: ‘Um, well I haven’t really thought about it that much.’
Me: ‘An opinion pollster would have you down as a No, but I can see you’re undecided.’
Them: ‘Absolutely.’
Conversation Two
Me: ‘Hope you don’t mind – how would you vote if the referendum was tomorrow?’
Them: ‘No, I suppose.’
Me: ‘Why’s that?’
Them: ‘I want the best for my family.’
Me: ‘Doesn’t everyone? Why do you think Scottish independence would threaten that?’
Them: ‘I don’t know. Haven’t thought about it that much. When is the referendum again?’
Me: ‘Next September. You know, an opinion pollster would have you down as a No voter.’
Them: ‘Well, I haven’t really decided.’
These two people weren’t just being polite and humouring me; they know me well enough to tell me to feck off and stop asking questions about politics. This kind of thing reinforces my belief that a large section of the supposed ‘No’ vote actually belongs in the ‘Don’t Know’ camp.
@handclapping
You’ve lost me there. I’m not a NAT, if that means member of the SNP, never have been. Had a brief dalliance with the Scottish Green Party in my 20’s, realised organised politics wasn’t for me. My voting YES has very little to do with the SNP but more about wanting to see a fairer Scotland.
What does ’50 yr olds are your children’ mean?
Folks should remember only ~33% of folk are saying No.
About the same are willing to vote for independence.
The rest are not willing to vote for the union but need persuading it’s worth going out and voting Yes.
This is what people are finding on the doorsteps because it is the case and polls show it in the tables, but not reported results.
Pollsters report numbers based on their own assumptions on likelihood to vote effects. They have absolutely no sound basis for this methodology as they have no experience of independence referenda, never mind ones in Scotland. Ignore polls right now unless you want to go digging through the tables and look for underlying trends.
The underlying trend is not good for the union. The union has been losing No voters through 2012 even though it looked that they were gaining. The Yes lost a bit too; is now recovering. The DKs are not transferring straight to Yes though, hence it appears the No has been doing well.
Only 1/3 of Scots support No. Only 1/3 of Scots support No. Repeat, repeat..
That’s why No is bricking it; Scotland does not love the union and there’s a good chance the floodgates for Yes are likely to break fairly soon as those not engaged get engaged.
O/T – strange article in Telegraph that conflates the “save gillies hill” march (local protest to save hill from a huge quarry) with Bannockburn re-enactment. But what’s interesting is that the author claims that Stirling council (labour) is preventing medieval enactment from having any weaponary – unlike many other historical enactments up and down the UK. Political meddling?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/history/9349339/Scots-disarmed-for-Bannockburn-parade.html
For the life of me, I can’t understand why the NO vote has risen.
When the tables come out I expect to see it has stayed the same or fallen. In the last panelbase only 36 per 100 interviewed said No.
Ignore published results for now as per my post above.
@Albalha
I’m a generation older than you so 50 year olds are my childrens age. I have been looking for independence since before the SNP breakthough at the Hamilton bye-election ie more than 50 years and now we are close. In the old days we had to console ourselves with the dog latin Nil carborundum illegitimi or Dont let the bastards grind you down. Now the boot is on the other foot and its BT who will be trying to keep their spirits up in the face of our onslaught on the streets, at the doorstep and at the galas.
Sorry I didn’t make myself clear.
Are you on the Voters’ Roll?
Something weird here
I am showing a posts by Catriona McGregor ( to which my reponse re the VR) and another by Indion, on my e-mail inbox but neither shpw up on the comments thread.
You talking to me, Blackeyes?
Nope to the missing poster. Maybe she is a first timer and is going through a pre-mod?
Anyway, it turned up in my inbox and not yet on the thread.
The other post might be from someone with a shuggly nail .
Bugger. What a shame, I had a whole raft of invective suitable for frenchified Govan bears and I’ve been stood up. 🙁
Smiley thingy, and you don’t go through the 10 minute pre mod either?
Fun oot eh, frenchified Govan Bear?
O.N. is it?
Chapeau. I can never get the edit thingy to work but I reckoned sliley was a mistype. Big paws, small keyboard?
fat big paws, and all four of them lefties
The rise in the no vote may the down to nothing more in the way Pannelbase have changed their tactics. They used to ask only the opinions of the people who say they would be likely to vote in a Holyrood election.
I’ll be back in Scotland at the end of August for a wedding in Troon.
I think I’ll do a wee circuit of bookies and stick a few bob on a YES vote if the odds are still 5/1
Four left feet eh, now we know where the legend of the transmontaine haggis came from, it was actually Pandas circling the East Lomond.
@handclapping
Eh bien d’accord. Je comprends maintenant.
SAOR F’IN ALBA.
Bugger!
Get Ye tae Freuchie and eat Mice
Its “Awa tae Freuchie where the froggies gang” and very apt in your case 🙂
I’ll make the bullets and you can fire them.
Might get up there this trip, no sure yet.
@Colin Dunn
I have argued for ages for a voter registration drive in Scotland. Particularly in the poorest communities where there are people who have never voted.
I lived in Niddrie and disenfranchisement/apathy to politics is shameful, not on the people who haven’t voted, but the Politicians who were quite happy for them not to vote over the years. The reason Tories and now Labour feel safe attacking the poorest and most vulnerable in society, because the poor don’t vote.
I was one of them I haven’t voted in my life for any party. I will vote for the 1st time in my life in the Scottish referendum, and there will be many many thousands like me who are not taken into account by the polling companies.
The rise in the no vote may the down to nothing more in the way Pannelbase have changed their tactics.
There’s not been any major rise in no from panelbase, just a bit of one over 2012 that has declined again this year. In January 2012, of 1008 interviewed, 419 responded ‘No’ to the indy question (42%). In May this year, of 1001 people interviewed, 363 responded No to the indy question (36%). That’s a loss of 6%. Hardly something for BT to celebrate.
What happened though is that the Yes has dropped too (worry/fear factor + shy indy factor) and pollsters try stupidly to think they can predict turnout for something they have no history in predicting as they’ve no experience whatsoever of it. Reported results are not what people actually responded, but weighted to something which has no basis as there is nothing to base it on.
In the May 2011 panelbase, things were like this (tables for today’s poll will be out in the next few days):
I plan to vote No 36% +/-3%
I plan to vote Yes 30% +/-3%
The rest (34%) are not in love with the union (or they’d say No) with 10% or so who will never be interested in voting/won’t vote.
Only 1/3 are willing to back the union! This is the reality. Not just from this poll, but from all of them if you look in detail. Ties closely with national identity, devo max polls, views on westminster etc.
The question is how many can Yes motivate on top of its 1/3 core too. If it can convince people they sky will not fall in, then Scotland will vote to leave the union in 2014.
By the rise in the no vote I meant the 2% rise in the Very Likely to vote from May’s poll.
The Yes vote fell because the general public began to think about the issues surrounding the referendum, whereas before people where probably replying more by what their preference would be.
If anyone thinks the arrival of a ‘white paper’ will herald a sudden shift in voting towards a YES is fooling themselves.
Those who would vote no by default despite admitting a largely fact free basis of their position or those that might fall into the ‘don’t know’ category won’t be downloading anything from the Scottish government’s website just because it’s full of fascinating proposals for an independent Scotland.
Why would they? It’s almost certain that they don’t spend a single minute of their lives examining anything in detail from Westminster available now.
I am arriving at the conclusion that the apathy amongst Scots is so great, it will take another generation to turn enough of them around. There are simply too many smug, die-hards who believe that they are defined by WW2, QEII & the nostalgic idea that British people are somehow superior to foreigners.
Any movement that threatens or undermines this vision will still for some time yet be considered subversive & treasonous.
Regrettably, I may use my dual citizenship status to leave Scotland for good if the people there choose to remain within the borders of a United Kingdom. And they will deserve every miserable oppressive reaction they get from the British government.
There’s another polling story in the Sunday Times of interest: Class of 2010 to swing election for Conservatives [Behind the Great Wall of Wapping]
It begins like this: LABOUR’S lead in the opinion polls is so fragile that the party might not win an overall majority if there were an election tomorrow, according to Tory research.
Tory spinners are saying that they think the incumbency factor [Wikipedia] is worth about 5 points to them, That and the WTF factor of Miliband as PM should, or so they claim to believe, be enough to wipe most if not all of the Labour lead.
Keeping in mind that the Panelbase poll in October 2012 which asked “If you felt the 2015 general election was going result in a Conservative-led government …” came up with Yes 51%, No 40% (or 37%, 32% for “very likely to vote”), you can see why the Tories in Scotland would like to play down their chances of winning [Herald].
The Yes vote fell because the general public began to think about the issues surrounding the referendum, whereas before people where probably replying more by what their preference would be.
I quite agree. The Yes was ahead of the No in late 2011.
The Yes was ahead of the No in 97-98, before reducing to largely equal with No until 2007 when the two became much more volatile.
We saw a yes peak in response to ‘Labour have failed and the Tories are back, the SNP are going to deliver a referendum and we’re off’ in 2011. Then people thought about the implications and some fear reduced the Yes (2012). However, the No weakened too; it’s just reported numbers don’t show they show what they’re guessing based on their own thoughts on motivation for turnout. The No is actually still weakening but the Yes is starting to recover.
Polls are bad for No, looking increasingly better for Yes at this stage. Certainly show no love for Westminster rule!
Have attended five local events in past month under YES banner culminating in the Pipe Band championships in Dumbarton.
Huge turnout of visitors and over 20 YES activists engaging with the public. By contrast Jackie Baillie’s crew were three poor wee souls.
Distinct feeling that BT will implode at turn of the year. The continued strength of the SNP vote will cause fractures , and as the prospect of Labour failure in England dawns internal jockeying for selection for Scottish seats will appear in Labour ranks. Already there are rumpled that Douglas Alexander ready to push Hugh Henry out of the way in Paisley and then assume the Labour leadership of SLAB in an independent Scotland. Interestingly a senior Labour politician in Holyrood dismissed it saying “Douglas is not I retested in Scotland”. Freudian slip or what?
Polls are bad for No, looking increasingly better for Yes at this stage. Certainly show no love for Westminster rule!
The interesting thing is, all the hysterical scare stories actually haven’t made a difference to polling figures. This poll was carried out right at the peak of the latest “oil running out” scare…. It shows how much influence the media actually has.
The Scottish referendum is unusual, in that it isn’t too strongly in the general public’s minds. The undecideds will be waiting for information before making their final decision, and they will only truly care and be listening in the 3 months before the referendum during the official campaign period. Until then, I don’t expect the polls to move at all.
I still believe that the Yes vote is higher than that. I think it is around 40 odd % (low 40’s). I speak to folk who say No, but when I point out what an independent Scotland would have, and what it would mean, the No folk either go quiet, or they slowly agree.
When I ask them for the benefits of the Union, let’s make no bones about it, they struggle. There are only 2 folk that I know who just keep saying ‘No’ – No reasons, no explanations, just ‘la-la-la-la’ as they stick their fingers in their ears.
For those who struggle on the ‘No’ reason, I usually find that I am able to put arguments across. Firstly, that the Queen will still be the head figure. Secondly, that we will still use the £. Thirdly, we will be Europe, while the rUK will be out, Fourthly, we will have the oil, whisky, financial sector, tourism, food, energy, water. Fifthly, you will still be British (because you live in these isles, and that can’t be taken away. That really makes them think!)
Once you put this across, and then ask, ‘What will we get from the Union?’ They just go quiet. You can see them having doubts. If half of the ‘No’ers’ are having doubts, just even listening to the likes of me! Then wait till it really begins. The ‘Don’t Know’ers’ must be the same.
As Doug Daniel says above, once they start walking away from the No camp, that little trickle, will become a stream, which will become a river, could then become a torrent.
I would not be surprised on the eve of the Referendum, if Darling isn’t wild eyed and howling ‘Devo-Max …I’ll give you Devo-Max …We’ll give you EVERYTHING! Just stay! Please, please …just stay!!!!’
But …it will be too late …and would you trust them anyway?
Huge problem with people who ‘don’t know’ as they are most often not willing to actually take the time to read about just exactly how they vote will affect them and their families. I have directed many people to WOS and Newsnet, National Collective etc, posted to facebook lots of times at least as an attempt to get friends and aquaintances to inform themselves. It seems that the so called ‘news’ papers still influence how people think and they either don’t have the time or energy or can’t be bothered to look elsewhere for info. They do still believe what the papers and what the BBC especially tell them. That’s the nut to crack…somehow. I’ve been given short shrift on F Book for posting too many ‘political’ posts, ie Indy info!
We’re going to win this because we can’t afford to lose.
Has anyone had a look at those polling figures from another angle? Clearly the Scots electorate trust the SNP to both run the country well and represent its interests at any level, but it doesn’t seem to have occurred to many of those polled, just what they’ll be handing that government if they vote no next year regardless of that trust. Y’know, with one of those canny Scots votes we all hear about. They’ll be effectively hamstringing themselves and the Scottish government at a stroke.
I mean do these people seriously expect the SG to continue to keep the wolf from the door when someones nicked all the shells for the shotgun? Just how is a toothless, threatless SG going to stop Westminster from slashing or even abolishing the Barnett formula? These voters will have handed Westminster permission to do as they wish. There will be no more council tax freeze, tuition fees, bus passes for elderly, prescription charges… God, that’s small beer compared to how far things will go. But regardless they’d all be lost to 30% cuts to the budget.
Then of course there’s the morale issue within the SG. They are without doubt the most effective administration that’s taken over Holyrood in its short lifetime. They’ve fought our corner from day one with only one goal in mind. To see Scotland run its own affairs for the betterment of its own people. Just how much would any of us feel like going to work the day after that kind of rejection and knowing what comes next? To their credit I think the SNP will, but they are only human and they will be well aware of what comes next from Westminster and no tools to fight it with. Jeez, talk about Alamo mentality. Come that scenario, they’ll have to stand by and watch as Westminster dismantles seven years of hard won public benefits. Worse, they’ll have to take a hand in it by robbing Peter to pay Paul.
So for those folk who think keeping that SNP in power to run the pretendy parly because the other parties are so fecking incompetent and hopeless is a canny plan? I’d think again. Just what would they be running it with? And I mean both in terms of authority and budget. Just what would they be running it with and how would they protect you from what is clearly an austerity driven Westminster agenda from all three W1 parties? You want and trust the SNP in the running of this country? Then make sure they have a country to run Sep19 2014.
We’ll win because losing is not worth contemplating.
Yesterday a friend of mine, 70+, a Scot of Scottish/Irish extraction, who is an arch-unionist, ex RN man who live and worked for over 40 years in the south of England, never felt himself to be Scottish, but British and who was pilloried mercilessly for being a ‘red-haired Jock’, even found himself on the wrong end of batterings for standing up to it and who has three kids all English and an English wife – declared quietly – ‘I’m voting YES!!!!’
If there ever was a political barometer – then he is it! Welcome home indeed Michael!
Took Father-in-Law out for his 89th birthday lunch the other week. He was a Lancaster Air Gunner who made it back from 40 sorties. Can’t stand politicians of any creed and hasn’t voted for many, many years as a result. He always has a rant about something or other and I was dreading another when I put the question to him. I was stunned when he said ‘YES, definitely!’
His only concern is that he may not be able to make it to 18 September next year. He bloody well will if I have anything to do with it!