Chicken elections: recount ordered
On the one hand, there’s this, from Michael Kelly in the Scotsman on Thursday:
And on the other, there’s this, from PoliticalBetting.com in mid-February 2011:
Aside from comedy idiots like Kelly, though, a great many more sober commentators have also been proclaiming 2012 as a terrible year of catastrophe for the Yes campaign – by which they usually explicitly or implicitly mean its chief protagonists, the SNP. Yet for all the disasters which they allege have befallen the independence movement – the great patriotic celebrations of the Jubilee and Olympics, the supposed unravelling of SNP policy on Europe, the dogged personal smearing of Alex Salmond and his cabinet – what’s actually happened to the polling figures for independence?
The most recent survey, by Panelbase in late October, put the numbers at 37% Yes to 45% No. (Rising dramatically to 52% Yes and 40% No if people thought the Tories would win the 2015 UK election.) How does that 37% stat compare to the start of the year? It’s down all of 1% on the Ipsos-MORI poll from January which was the first one to ask the Scottish Government’s proposed referendum question.
But there’s more. Comparing those same two polls sees the No figure drop too, but by 5% – from 50% to 45%. The events of 2012, then, have seen five times as many prospective No voters reconsider their position as Yes voters, and the gap the Yes side has to make up shrink, during these allegedly-disastrous 12 months, from 12% to 8%. If that’s a bad year for the YesScotland team, we suspect they’ll take it.
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Oh, and one other thing. Just four days after that post on PoliticalBetting.com, Ladbrokes slashed the odds on the SNP to win the Holyrood election. They’d been a rank outsider at 11/2, with Labour colossal favourites at a mindboggling 1/12. Even after the change, the firm was still offering a tasty 5/2 on the Nats, with Labour remaining hot front runners at 1/5 – a price barely worth the effort of logging onto a website for, never mind walking down to your local betting shop.
Today, Ladbrokes will give you the very same odds on a Yes vote – 5/2 – but with No at a far more generous 2/7. In other words, they’re considerably less confident of a No vote than they were of Iain Gray becoming First Minister. Just over three years ago, the same bookmaker rated the chances of independence by 2015 at 20/1. We’ll let you plot the graphs for yourselves.
Coincidentally, I have just finished writing a comment on one of Alan Cochrane’s drivelly diatribes over at the Torygraph which is very much on the same topic of unionist delusions. I know many of your readers dislike links to that bastion of British nationalism, so here’s a link to the comment on Facebook – http://on.fb.me/YrkePz
We could of course add a second question,
Do you want the Scottish Paliament to renegotiate in returning the 6000 square miles of sea removed from Scotland’s territorial waters in a late night vote supported by Scottish and other UK Labour, Tory and Lib Dem MP’s the day before the devolution vote was carried by the people of Scotland in 1999?
Then ask the independence question.
If there is nothing wrong with what they did then there is no problem in renegotiating and asking the public for their support on this issue, regardless of the independence outcome. Imagine Labour MP’s having to justify why they sold Scotland down the river and to campaign against a Yes on that issue. They would have to state it is London’s view that it is only if Scotland was independent that this matter could be renogotiated, unless Westminster in a panic decided to amend the legislation back to its previous position.
I refuse to buy any so-called newspapers in Scotland or any other part of the present-UK.They are merely propaganda rags for the British Establishment. No way will I give those institutions a penny while they rubbish my country, its people and its culture.
Anyway, today I happened to be at a place that had a substantial number of the usual MSM print press suspects piled up and unsold ready to be recycled. Seeing those piles of unwanted paper made me feel sad for the unnecessary waste – but that was countered by the joy in seeing the decline and gradual extinction of the UK’s propaganda newsprint take visual shape in all those unsold copies.
While waiting for a friend to return and browsing the usual ‘SNP/Alex Salmond accused’ headlines I came across an article by Alison Rowat in the Herald entitled, “Is Salmond the best person to secure a Yes vote in 2014?”. I started reading it thinking it might be arguing for Nicola Sturgeon to take over the SNP leadership or somesuch…
…It wasn’t! It turned out to be yet another attack on Alex Salmond and the SNP and how ‘disastrous’ 2012 had been for them (Eh? WTF?). Well, how fucking original!
I really do not wish to regurgitate the troll-like assertions of that ‘journalist’ here – it would make me just as angry typing it as I was when I was reading it! The article is actually available online on the Herald’s website for anyone who wants to have a look/laugh.
After throwing that piece of trash back onto the pile for recycling with a curse and a headshake and a too-loud “Aaaagh!” my friend returned and asked me what was wrong. I explained the cause of my ire. “That’s what you get for reading that Vote No shite!” was his succinct response… True that, very true!
Slightly o/t so apologies. You’re currently getting 9/4 for a Tory majority in the 2015 elections from William Hill. I’d be pretty tempted to try to get a double on a Yes vote and the aforementioned Tory bet in the hope the bookies (some of whom aren’t yet publicly offering referendum odds, as though they’re oblivious, but will provide them if you persist) don’t realise it’s a related contingency, as they call it in the business. Always worth a shot if you like a gamble and are feeling as optimistic as I am as this year draws to an end.
Who cares what drivel Michael Kelly spouts in the Scotsman (printed in England and edited in what used to be Lochend world of leather)?
I see that there year-on-year circulation figures have dropped by 14.8% to 32,637, at this rate it wont be worth shipping the paper copies up from England! Maybe the paper should consider a new direction while they still have a few readers.
The last time I looked at their online “content” the vast majority of comments were so called “cybernats” who disagreed with everything they said. So if the expected collapse of Scottish Nationalism and the Yes campaign does come to pass, as so eagerly predicted by Kelly, then it would be a total disaster for their online hit rate.
The media, both broadcast and print, are about to have a seriously bad day at work. They have completely underestimated the general public in the referendum issue and are about to reap the benefits of abusing public trust. Reasons being?
Well lets just think about it for a moment. Since coming to government in 2007 the SNP have balanced the books every single year, protected our NHS from the worst of the austerity measures and privatisation by both front and back door, protected our children’s rights to free education. Protected the householder from massive rises in council tax, introduced bills to tackle sectarianism, equal marriage rights, minimum pricing on alcohol. Poured cash into infrastructure projects to try and kick start our economy, run their wee feet off all over the globe attracting inward investment, promoted guaranteed jobs for apprenticeships and youth employment…………….the list goes on a bit. You get the general drift. Forefront in all things constant promotion of a positive and aspirational Scotland with a better future to look forward to.
Yet according to every politics programme, every piece of news editorial, 8 out of ten commentators agree, the first minister is a jowly wee con artist who is supposedly just kidding us all on. In fact they go on to inform us that the referendum and independence is all just a grandiose scheme to achieve power and self gratification for both the SNP and Alex Salmond. Now I don’t know about you but the proof on the ground and in the books doesn’t match the rhetoric espoused by the media pundits and commentators. It comes down to trust and belief and I choose to believe my own eyes. I see people being able to receive prescription drugs and medical aid at point of need, I see my kids going on to further education that won’t leave them in penury for the rest of their lives, I see the elderly able to travel for free and in the future living in a well fueled warm house. I see centres of excellence being set up for our youth to learn new skills and trades in renewables. Again the list goes on for a bit, but I refuse to believe for an instant that I’m the only common Joe public who notes that what the media is selling does not jibe with what I’m actually seeing happen. The contrast between Westminster party policy and actions to those of Holyrood and Scottish government.
The media, particularly major elements within the Scottish media should hang its head in shame. They’re not holding government to account, they’re actually actively trying to bring down the first government in generations who are trying to build something worth having.
@Dal Riata
I added a comment to that particular piece in The Herald that was never published…
It was along the lines of “Alex Salmond neither leads the ‘Yes’ Campaign (Blair Jenkins), nor the SNP input to the campaign (Nicola Sturgeon), so either this article is either just another piece of anti-Salmond claptrap or just very poor journalism. Which is it?”
One of the highlights of 2011 – no, THE highlight of 2011 – was Grahamski in The Scotsman comments in the days and weeks up to the election and then the first few months after.
He, like the No campaign now, show a staggering level of arrogance about the outcome of a vote.
Grahamski being Eric Joyce
As the time grows nearer you will see the real campaign start – all this posturing and sneering we are seeing, is largely a phoney war. It has amounted to nothing, with the no camp not really scoring any hits except those in their own minds.
The campaign when it does start will focus on the things that matter to ordinary joe public, contrasted with whats going on under the tories, and how similar Labour is. The No campaign will have to dig deeper for the bile they’ll need for their campaign, as they can’t campaign on a positive slant. But as nasty as it will get, and we’re seeing some of that here recently, it is nothing more than warmed over table scraps.
A lot of people here have said, they think there is a plot by scottish labour. The plot is to make itself look so incompetent that people will be scared that labour would one day govern an Independent Scotland, so they’ll vote no. I think most folks take comfort from theories like this, as it they can’t believe anyone can be that incompetent except by design. I don’t hold to that. Political parties are capable of being that stupid purely because of ideaology or no real vision. Scottish labour are in shock at having been rejected by Scotland. They are also hampered by their controlling party in England, which is trying to triangulate a tory vote. Their higher ranks are now filled by people who should have remained as councillors or admin staff. They have no clear vision of Scotland and are blinded by their hatred of the SNP and Salmond. Trying to find some way to attack him, they decided to come at it from the right. Basically copying Miliband. Now that might work for him in England. But any Scotlab apparatchik should know what happens to any party here that adopts a right wing policy imported from England.
Disraeli got burned here when his one nation conservatisim crashed & burned. The scottish unionists who worked so long to rebuild a right of centre party, threw it all away by becoming a mere adjunct to an English party. The SNP who had finally made it as a party with 11 seats, saw that melt away when they sided with the Tories. Milibands one nation labour will suffer the same fate here and lamont needs to re-read her history if she thinks that can’t happen to her.
So let them bloviate, let them sneer, let them carp and moan. But come the day of the vote, they’ll need to come up with a vision of Scotland and then realise as did Ian Gray in 2011, that Scots don’t like being put down. Won’t recognise the Scotland described by the No campaign and certainly won’t want to try the bowl of Scots Cringe Oats that are on offer.
There is a very good chance we can win this. It’s worth a punt.
The amazing irony about spin is that eventually, as the cover drops and the truth begins to shine through, the last people to accept reality are those who created the story in the first place. Deceit becomes (self) delusion. They end up believing their own spin.
What amuses me most about Kelly and his Imperial Britnat chums in the Party of the Working Man is their apparent inability to countenance the possibility that even a No vote in 2014 will not stop this journey towards self-determination. The notions that we will return to a static Labour municipalism in Scotland (now permanently locked within the UK) post the referendum; that supporters of independence will slink away, never to return, muttering that that’s it, we’ve been bested by the intelligence and perspicacity of Kelly and Co; that movements which have been building for decades suddenly stop and disappear – these notions are so risible that one would hesitate to attribute them even to someone who has proved to be as consistently delusional as Kelly.
That’s why I say ‘apparent’ inability. On some level, you feel he senses the game is up.
@Luigi
You could call it Boomerang journalism, where they throw out tendentious stories (putting it mildly) and then unwittingly use their own stories to justify their position when they ‘unexpectedly’ hit them on the back of the head.
By the way and somewhat O/T, we had a University friend over after Christmas, who although born and bred in Edinburgh has lived in England since 1986. He works in the city now and it was funny hearing his views on Europe and Scotland and to realise what a xenophobic bubble they live in down there in London.
It seems that despite the cleverness and wisdom of the banks (such they are still considered capable of responsible self-regulation) they have repeatedly attempted to start runs on the Euro simply because they don’t like it (i.e. through ignorance, contempt for foreigners and general public schoolboy prankishness). However, he did admit that he was in Berlin recently and met the British ambassador (so he says) who told him that we should not underestimate Germany’s determination to hold Europe together, mainly it seems to ensure that a European war never happens again, even if they are footing the bill.
He also made the remark that Scotland can’t rely on an economy simply based on people taxing each other. I didn’t rise to it.
Finally, my friend is/was a mathematician and produces one of the sets of election predictions, based on polls (he mentioned YouGov) and council/by-elections, that are apparently referred to by the ‘quality’ press (he also does exam result comparators for Cambridge – the Baxter Tables).
On the basis of his modelling he stated that he predicts that Labour will win the next UK General Election with a majority of over 100. We didn’t get into it but he seemed unaware of what Labour has been up to here in Scotland nor indeed that Labour is widely viewed as being to the right of the SNP…
It will be interesting to see how his predictions hold up in 2015.
My view of the political landscape is this.
Personally, I think the percentages are actually around the 50-50 mark on the Referendum (give 5% either way). Half the folk I know are for Independence, the other half aren’t (or not sure).
As to the 2015 Election…well, can you honestly see Ed Miliband as the Prime Minister. Can you honestly ACTUALLY see Ed …standing outside the front door of No. 10, and waving to the camera’s with his family.
Nope …neither can I.
Which means, I suspect another Tory win. I suspect that they may jump into bed with UKIP next time round (Libs are finished). And with that scenario, you’ve really got to be praying that at that point, Scotland is Independent. Can you imagine what a Tory / UKIP coalition would do to Scotland?
I believe most Southerners are quite willing to forgive Cameron and Osborne for the tax hikes and cuts in benefits. I think a helluva lot of people have not forgiven Labour for what they did, and at the same time, I believe that the South just don’t see Ed as Prime Minister material. Could you imagine how the EU, the USA, the Chinese or the Russians would treat him. They would discard him with contempt at every meeting.
Mind you, the Germans think that Cameron is a bit of a twit.
MajorBloodnok
If they consider Cameron a twit, can you imagine the Supreme Heavyweight of Angela Merkel versus Delicate Lightweight Edward Miliband.
Can you see him ever dictating terms to her?
Oh …to be a fly on the wall in that room, should that day ever transpire….
O/T
Marcus Gardham in the Herald today reporting that the No campaign is aiming to ‘recruit 20,000 people to deliver leaflets and get the vote out on the day.’ So they are wanting to persuade 20,000 people to campaign against the nation they are living in from having all the powers that all the other states in the world take for granted. No doubt they will all be inspired by this remarkably positive, infectious vision of Scotland’s future….I wonder how they are going to get the vote out on the day when they have shown so little engagement with the constitututional issue so far?
@Muttley79
Look on it as an opportunity to wind up members of the Orange Order and all of the Westminster flunkies who’ll have to drag their asrses out of their subsidised bars to try and save their salary. If you’re really lucky you might get a chance to ask George Foulkes what it was that changed his mind about the abolition of the House of Lords.
@Cuphook
The wholesale involvement of the Orange Order in the No campaign would not go down at all well with a lot of traditional Catholic Scottish Labour voters. The old fear/smear of an Independent Scotland being dominated by Protestants would be shown to have been as ludicrous as it was then. Another scare story would evaporate…
That’ll be 20,000 workfare “recruits” no doubt. With any luck they’ll be so pissed off at being forced to campaign for the naysayers for nothing that they’ll throw the leaflets in the nearest skip and take the rest of the day off.
I’m sure that the OO will be involved, if not in an ‘official’ capacity’. The No campaign are desperate for volunteers so I can’t see them turning those brave defenders of the Union away. I actually hope that the clowns who organised the demo in Glasgow the other week get more involved and even organise a march.
I must know the only OO member who will be voting YES.
He joined for mostly family reasons, his dad, grandad, etc, etc.
Maybe the OO isn’t such a banker that the unionists like to think?
And you can read the actual, no-kidding, naked truth about the No campaign’s romancing of the OO right here:
http://www.bbc.scotlandshire.co.uk/index.php/city-news/122-nutters.html
“As to the 2015 Election…well, can you honestly see Ed Miliband as the Prime Minister. Can you honestly ACTUALLY see Ed …standing outside the front door of No. 10, and waving to the camera’s with his family.”
These are an interesting read:
http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/06/20/the-day-i-wagered-my-pension-on-the-leader-ratings/
http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/03/19/could-the-salmond-factor-give-the-snp-the-edge/
http://www7.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2011/08/24/is-this-labours-big-nightmare/
I am not inclined to use twitter nor facebook, however, to hear about the decline of MSM and Unionists in general across this media does my heart good.
Obama won his election not with money ( Romney had more I think ) but with dedicated activists pounding the pavements along with both facebook and twitter.
This largely bye passed the traditional media, and pushed Obama in front at the crucial time.
In the UK, the MSM and their Unionist buddies are running a campaign Putin would be proud of. I hope their day comes and they shrivel away in dismay.
I can hardly bear the constant mis information, lies and deceit and those who call themselves Scots they are the worst. They all have personal agenda’s including all the UK parties who have no regard for Scotland nor it’s people. They all truly make me sick.
Scottish people need to be woken up and their passion roused to stop the Westminster scoundrels and of course the Scottish scoundrels, mostly labour who have no morals left.
James McLaren says: 29 December, 2012 at 11:22 am
“Grahamski being Eric Joyce”
Is Grahamski really Eric Joyce or is that surmise?
Either way it’s time for a dram. Plus it’s good for the Scottish economy.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-business-20859496
Some great postings here which I haven’t finished reading yet.
One thing I think we should keep in mind is that there already have been some good reports published, dare I mention the IFS and two IPPR ones. What happens is that the media picks out bits it likes and creates an article around those small extracts. Just about always anti-independence, and with further spin.
What happens then is that independence posters attack the article, and even the report itself. What should happen, if you’ll pardon me, is that we should seek out the report itself, give it a better read, and then use the report itself to attack the article, just by correcting the false assumptions it makes, the detail it misses out, the whole sections it doesn’t even bother with. And even the executive summaries themselves, which the MSM article really really cherry-picks – if it even reads them.
So far any “independent” article I’ve read or at least scanned through, generally speaking supports the cause of independence, and even figures being quoted generally by us “cybernats”.
Rev
Interesting article and links on the politicalbetting site.
So, basically, it could be Salmond needs to preserve / increase his rating. Which, conversely means he might need to stay a distance from the referendum campaign so as not to be a “liar, misled, Gadhafi, Megrahi” target, but concnetrate instead on keeping us and the business leaders happy.
Which of course some of us have suggested before, and he seems to manage fairly well, despite the missiles of undeserved abuse hurled at him by the vain misanderings of the unmentionable and importune media.
I need a drink.
Is this why the media is (mostly) steadfastly ignoring the fact that there is now conclusive evidence that the Lockerbie bombing simply didn’t happen the way the cops and the Crown said it did, and consequently Megrahi can be shown to have an alibi for the crime?
Justice for Megrahi has been trying to get the story off the ground since October, to little effect. Rather than pounce on the scoop, we have the spectacle of Linklater being given free rein to denounce us as mad conspiracy theorists, sight unseen (then handed a CBE a week later).
Given that the Scottish government has been steadfastly defending the Zeist conviction to a degree that seems to many to be above and beyond the call of duty, and that many people believe Kenny MacAskill forced Megrahi to withdraw the appeal that would have cleared him as a condition of his being granted compassionate release, there seems a decent case for imagining that proof of Megrahi’s innocence could easily be spun against the SNP. However, could it simply be that the press sees any acknowledgement of Megrahi’s innocence as a problem for their perpetual desire to lambast Salmond and MacAskill for having freed a “mass murderer”?
Hi Rev,
Those 3 links you posted ….very interesting.
The 3 links seem to indicate that no matter what your Party preference is, part of the electorate thinking (or just individual thinking) is …who do I have trust in, and who will look after us. It’s a dog-pack mentality, and we humans, act on it also. We always follow a leader who is strong, protective, and basically …not an idiot.
And this is where Ed has a problem. Do we trust the man …and the answer is No. In fact, I believe many Labour MP’s actually have their own personal reservations on the man. And probably not helping the situation, is that we also have Ed Balls behind Miliband – not exactly a glowing endorsement of stability. I wouldn’t trust Balls with a Fiver, let alone the economy.
And as for Harriet Harman, all we can safely say is that she was also part of the Government that wrecked the UK.
The Southern half of Britain will look at the 2 camps, the 2 leaders, and their Deputies, and come to the following conclusion…
The Labour Party, which is led by Miliband, Balls, and Harman sat at the very epicenter of the Labour Government that presided over the financial catastrophe of the nation. They have never apologised for what they did (they make noises of muttering ‘sorry’, but that is it), but none fell on their sword – Instead, they got themselves elected again, and are once more, are trying to grab the reins of power.
Cameron and Osborne are no angels. We all know that they are rich toffee nosed snobs. But as they try to protect their own wealth …well, to the electorate, it psychologically means, they will protect the wealth of the middle classes and the upper echelons of society too.
Both also went to Eton which means they rubbed shoulders with kids from royal backgrounds, as well as the financial and political world. It means they are at ease on the world stage when it comes to rubbing shoulders with the top dogs of the world.
Which is why, when it comes to the crunch …the Southern electorate will look at the 2 camps …and without a doubt, they will all vote Tory. They want something that is seen to be strong, protective, and sensible in financial matters …unlike Miliband, Harman and Balls …who presided over the financial catastrophe of late 2007, and also look like they would get eaten alive by the EU when it came to any financial talks.
For a long time now politicians have mistaken aspiration for action. Johann Lamont reversed Labour ideology, claiming she wanted to start a real debate about economics; Darling wants a debate full of respect. The fact that they want such things has actually brought us no nearer a serious debate about Scottish economics, nor has it guaranteed that invective against an opposing opinion is now a thing of the past. It simply reveals their posture of the moment. I would be extremely interested if Ms Lamont could cast aside her delusions of adequacy (sorry for the invective, Mr Darling, but the woman really does come across as a complete tube) for long enough to open up a real debate on any of the issues surrounding independence, but I suspect that we will simply be subject to more wish lists creating an illusion of engagement, while actually ensuring nothing of substance is disclosed which may then demand commitment to follow up on.
Milliband’s ‘one nation’ vision, is a plank to which he will cling in increasingly stormy seas, but I wonder what makes him think that he has the capacity to transform one of the most unequal societies on the planet given the position he has taken on exisiting coalition policies. One gets the feeling that his sights do not extend much further than the Watford Gap, let alone as far as Scotland.
I am sure that the Yes campaign is on its strongest ground when it addresses the central issue of power. I couldn’t give a toss about the EU, a potential currency, the Bank of England, defence and so on – at present. They are certainly important issues in the fuller context of the independence debate, but what I want first is the independence to make informed decisions about these issues, and then vote for a government which may deliver as many of them as possible. I know Cameron and Clegg are not interested in ceding that power because they have said so, but equally Ed Milliband is not interested in ceding that power, so his ‘one nation’ mantra is as meaningless and irrelevant to me. Given their positions, I cannot see how there can be a debate when they are entrenched in their positions, and I am committed to mine. I will not ask them for independence, because it is not in their gift to give, but I will try to convince my neighbours, friends, family because their decision is vital. The arena in which the debate will be won is in the positive encounters between people in Scotland – the voters.
Did we ever find out if Grahamski is Eric Joyce?
There has been some great “no punches pulled” articles across this blog.
One stands out for me, and that was the article on Labour’s “one Country” idea.
This is labour at it’s most devious, it is clear to me that they, not the Tories are the biggest threat to Scotland. They need us desperately to fulfil their future Westminster ambitions, in their mind they will do anything to keep us.
They want to install laws which means that Scotland will be governed by English laws ie under “one Nation”, this means the constant weakening of the Scottish parliament until it is completely toothless.
They have never agreed the acceptance of a 50+1 referendum result, and should they win the UK election in 2015, they will not be bound by a close result and will just say they refuse to accept it. At which point, as mentioned in the article, all negotiations will be promptly ended. End of, as far as they are concerned.
Political fallout, they will be prepared to take, as they have no other route to guarantee forming future Westminster governments.
What no one knows, is how Scots will take such blatant fiddling with their democratic rights. All I do know is that we are only beginning to hear of their “one country agenda” and Scots will be targeted with their media campaigns to soften us up, somehow to make this more “acceptable”, by misdirection and blatant lies.
This has to be the future for labour, the most treacherous party, for the CANNOT lose Scottish MP’s.
The Tories are not relevant in Scotland, the lib Dems are a joke. So all efforts of the SNP and the YES campaign should be to concentrate in making labour’s abysmal record in Scotland being brought constantly to the Scottish people by all means possible.
In order to make Scots fully aware of Just HOW Badly labour has done in Scotland despite being in charge for large periods of time. We need to turn the information tide against them. Or we may face the above scenario.