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Wings Over Scotland


Bleeding obvious confirmed

Posted on May 24, 2014 by

For quite some time now, and in particular since the turn of the year, this site’s been pointing out two things about polling for the 2015 UK general election.

locshare

One is that Labour’s lead has been in steady decline since 2012. The other is that the polls present a falsely optimistic picture for Ed Miliband’s party, as ultimately a significant proportion of UKIP support is likely to vote tactically, because only two people have a chance of becoming Prime Minister and only one of them is promising what UKIP supporters want above all else – a referendum on leaving the EU.

Pleasingly, on one level at least, today we were proved right.

A Lord Ashcroft poll reported by the excellent Mirror Group spinoff site Ampp3d revealed the unsurprising fact that, just as we suggested back on 1 January, just over half of the people who voted UKIP in this week’s elections say they’ll do so in May 2015. The others broke down like this:

Conservative 21%
Labour 10%
Lib Dem 1%
Don’t know 14%

At first that 11% gap doesn’t seem as bad for Labour as some people might have thought. But when pondering which way the 14% who haven’t yet made up their minds might jump, it’s worth noting the other findings of the poll (which had a large sample of well over 4,000 respondents).

More than half (52%) were former Tory voters, with just 15% ex-Labour.

66% thought David Cameron would make the best Prime Minister, compared to only 25% who said Ed Miliband was the man for the job.

69% trusted Cameron and George Osborne more to handle the economy than Miliband and Ed Balls.

We don’t think it’s going to be necessary to call in the Taggart team to work out which party Nigel Farage’s defectors are going to split in favour of. But let’s be charitable and only allocate two-thirds of the switherers to the Tories, with the rest scattering hither and thither, perhaps to fringe nutter parties like the BNP (which it should be remembered secured over half a million votes in 2010).

Two-thirds of 14% is just over 9%, which gives us a conveniently neat 30% of UKIP deserters returning to the Tory fold versus 10% going to Labour. So now let’s apply that equation to some recent polls, redistributing 15% of UKIP votes to the Tories and 5% to Labour (half are staying UKIP, remember) and ignoring everyone else.

Populus poll 19 May
Con 37% Lab 35%

YouGov poll 18 May
Con 36% Lab 38%

ComRes poll 17 May
Con 32% Lab 34%

Ipsos Mori 14 May
Con 32% Lab 35%

YouGov 13 May
Con 36% Lab 35%

YouGov 12 May
Con 37% Lab 37%

ICM 12 May
Con 35% Lab 32%

Ashcroft 12 May
Con 36% Lab 33%

Populus 12 May
Con 37% Lab 37%

That’s four polls with the Tories in front, three with Labour ahead and two tied (though in reality, not a single one of the nine gives either side a lead above the standard 3% margin of error). The averages are Con 35.3%, Lab 35.1%. It’s a dead heat. When we fed the results into Electoral Calculus, it predicted a hung parliament.

calcu

We already know that the UK electoral system is biased in favour of Labour, which EC factors in – that’s why Labour gets 32 more seats on fewer votes – but also that polls historically always swing towards the incumbent government as the election nears, which it doesn’t. The economy is also (statistically) recovering strongly, unemployment is falling, and by far the most important issue to UK voters is immigration, which favours the Tories.

If we assume that the latter three factors bring the Tories just a 2.5% swing over the next 12 months (less than half the size of the one that Labour got in the last year of Gordon Brown’s disastrous premiership), it’s enough to make them the biggest party, and able to form a majority coalition with the Lib Dems again.

calcu2

Increase that swing by just 0.5% to 3% and the Tories have a majority:

calcu3

If anyone’s still reading by this point, or if you just skipped to the end 400 words ago, the gist should be clear: unless something dramatic and unexpected happens, the Conservatives are going to win the 2015 election.

(We haven’t even allowed for the fact that opinion polls tend to overstate the real level of Labour support, perhaps due to the Shy Tory Factor.)

Tactical voting from UKIP supporters is only likely to account for about 1% of swing, though it could be far more significant than that depending on where it’s deployed. But with immigration (and therefore, indirectly, Europe) looking like continuing to be the top priority of UK (which on this occasion really means English) voters, it’s hard to see anything that Labour can do to stop their slide.

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  1. 16 09 14 22:04

    Scoville Units Unite » Blog Archive » The reasons to vote yes

172 to “Bleeding obvious confirmed”

  1. Croompenstein says:

    Labour isn’t working…

  2. donald anderson says:

    According to the Wright programme over 40% of the voters thought hew was weird. Though it would be higher than that. Balls is in his pocket.

  3. Andrew Sinclair says:

    What’s interesting is that all media and westminster eyes are fixed on the 2015 elections as being “the next major political event in the UK”. They’ve kind of forgotten something which happens in September.

    So what happens in the event of a YES vote? What’s the fallout and implications for Westminster? Here’s a scenario to discuss – “YES” declared to have won by early in the morning of the 19th. The city starts trading a few hours later and decides to hit the £ because it’s not happy with implications for UK debt. Sterling falls taking goodness knows what other dominoes with it. BoE pushes up interest rates to protect sterling. property bubbles start to pop. Where could this end? Could we see a snap election in 2014? Who would win then? I suspect this would favour the Tories.

  4. JLT says:

    The thing is, that the Tories have hammered the UK with austerity measures, and have quietly said, that more are on their way (I can guess that they’ll wait until after the General Election as they don’t want to scare the horses by implementing more before it). Having rammed through their Welfare Cuts, Zero Hour Contracts, no real wage rises, allowing Bankers to still have massive bonueses, that Labour should have been way out in front. Way out! but they aren’t.

    Miliband is a bust flush. There is NO WAY he is Prime Minister material. Can you imagine him going up against the likes of Merkel or Putin. They would eat him alive.

    The Tories will be in power in a years time. A coalition with UKIP on the cards. No wonder Farage was smiling yesterday. He knows he has just become Kingmaker.

  5. Frann Leach says:

    And the other point is that David “we don’t make deals” Cameron will almost certainly go into coalition with UKIP if possible, giving him an even better lead.

  6. Juteman says:

    If there is a No vote, Cameron will be hailed as the saviour of the union, making a UK Tory victory even more likely.
    Labour voters take note.

  7. Alfresco Dent says:

    Well filleted.

    I should say this more often – thanks for giving us a voice Stu. It means a helluva lot.

  8. muttley79 says:

    I am glad you added statistically after saying the UK economy is improving Rev Stu. The Tories have supported the rise of yet another housing bubble.

    It seems many UKIP voters are disillusioned Tories (no great surprise). Just why they would help Miliband become PM is something no doubt the MSM, in Scotland and the wider UK, will try very hard to explain away, in the months before September and the referendum.

  9. antmcg says:

    Interesting point Andrew, but there will be no snap election, as the Coalition passed the fixed term parliament bill either last year or the year before, I cant remember which, but the Rev has posted about it here somewhere 🙂

  10. Democracy Reborn says:

    Will wee Dougie A be able to save Ed?

    Pigs?…. Flying?

  11. YESGUY says:

    I think that even in the event of a NO vote , labour will suffer badly in Scotland. I would guess that tactical voters might go labour in the forlorn hope they win in 2015, but the coalition of the bitter together campaign has left a mark on all of us.

    Labour are deid .

    I think so , many of the usual suspects in my area don’t like what labour has become, red tory’s is words i hear around my home town , a Labour safe seat. The scares and smears have angered the “red brigade” because as they rightly tell me , they are Scots too. It wouldn’t take much for LFI to splinter off and take many labour voters with them

    And a point i have noticed too with “the young team” They see labour as a crusty old party that their mums/dads voted for and have no such loyalty.

    thankfully a YES vote will spare us from all that is going down south and we can watch safe in the knowledge that it wont effect us directly anymore.

  12. scottish_skier says:

    I’ve almost got to the point where the Tories seem the better option. At least they laugh to your face and you can see the knife coming.

  13. Thepnr says:

    @antmcg

    I agree with Andrew Sinclair. in the event of a Yes vote I believe it is certain that a General Election will result within a matter of weeks. Very possibly Scotland will be excluded from this election is also my view.

    If I’m right, let’s hope UKIP win 🙂

    “Section 2 of the Act also provides for two ways in which a general election can be held before the end of this five-year period:

    If the House of Commons resolves “That this House has no confidence in Her Majesty’s Government”, an early general election is held, unless the House of Commons subsequently resolves “That this House has confidence in Her Majesty’s Government”. This second resolution must be made within fourteen days of the first.
    If the House of Commons, with the support of two-thirds of its total membership (including vacant seats), resolves “That there shall be an early parliamentary general election”.
    In either of these two cases, the monarch (on the recommendation of the prime minister) appoints the date of the new election by proclamation. Parliament is then dissolved 17 working days before that date.”

  14. Andrew Sinclair says:

    AntMcG: Ah yes, good point. I’d forgotten the fixed term bit. Thanks.

  15. Dcanmore says:

    Remember the Falklands effect at the 1983 election. Maggie’s party weren’t doing very well at all in the polls by April 82 and her monetary policies were dividing the party. Then came the Falklands and she was seen as a national hero a year later when people went to cast their votes. A NO vote this year will be Cameron’s Falkland moment and the right-wing press will make sure of it. Then ‘proud Scot’ Davidson and SLAB will be waiting bayonets at the ready.

  16. Murray McCallum says:

    As mentioned in the 2nd para of the article, you have to think that even UKIPers will work out that the only way they are going to get their EU referendum is to vote Tory.

    All the UKIP dreams of closed borders and splendid isolation flow from being out of the EU.

    As well as OneNation Labour increasing the immigration controls / anti-foreigner message, will they crumble on a referendum to exit the EU?

  17. Democracy Reborn says:

    @JLT @Frann Leach

    It will be at least a Tory-led coalition in 2015, but it won’t be with UKIP.

    Take a look at Stu’s figures – UKIP zero seats on either scenario.

    No, any coalition will be with “the biggest whores in history” : the Lib Dems. They’ve sold their soul once with the Tories, they get 5 more years in ministerial cars & Cameron (as he’s done already) will throw them a few insignificant titbit policies to make them feel good. They will say (like the Tories) that they were forced to take “tough” decisions which were unpopular, but they did the right thing & the results have borne fruit. In fact, I would bet my mortgage that Alexander, Clegg & Laws are presently working on the first draft of the next coalition agreement with the Tories.

  18. Zen Broon says:

    To sacrifice Scottish freedom for the vague offchance of a Blue Labour victory is very stupid, to sacrifice Scottish freedom for the almost certainty of a right wing austerity alliance is utterly insane. The No voters simply don’t seem to understand the brutal reality of the British state.

  19. Liquid Lenny says:

    According to ITV news, poll by Ashcroft of 26 Marginals shows Labour on track to win sizeable majority apparently the tens of millions Liberals are going over to Labour!!!

  20. Red Squirrel says:

    Just a fleeting thought…with a Yes vote & Dave forced to resign, will that mean Boris or even Nigel for Tory leader?

    Weird Ed replaced by Ed Balls in a desperate last ditch attempt to catch votes?

    We’ve got to vote yes to avoid being caught up in this boorach.

  21. Andrew Sinclair says:

    @thepnr, @Antmcg

    So, does this then give a scenario where we are in effect independent from whatever date the snap election is called for?

    mmmm, interesting….

  22. Onwards says:

    There may be another factor.

    For the last few UK elections, Labour’s vote has held up in Scotland, possibly due to the chance of having a Scottish PM.

    I don’t see any great enthusiasm here for Ed Miliband.

  23. Chic McGregor says:

    But the big intervening event is the Indy referendum.

    If Scotland votes YES, Cameron and hence the Tories will carry the can and IMO will plummet in the polls.

    Possibly to the extent that they feel there is nothing to lose in doing a ‘Save Britain’ pact with UKIP where they promise a vote in parliament on dissolving the Scottish parliament (UKIP policy) and reneging on the Edinburgh Agreement.

    Of course, that would not be without huge repercussions, and that would have to be weighed up.

    The danger is that they might see that as a way to harness English anger at the Scots voting Yes and win in 2015.

    It seems unthinkable right now, but depending how far they drop in the polls and how angry the English electorate are and with the ‘excuse’ that that is already UKIP policy, it is a frightening, if remote, possibility. IMPO.

  24. Croompenstein says:

    STV news said the UK Govt has advised that an indy Scotland will require immigration in numbers that would equate to a ‘New’ Edinburgh (unrefuted of course). Wonder what we could call it..Freedom City

  25. handclapping says:

    Another thing about the Electoral Calculus is that it has assumed static SNP seats whereas given present polls of Scottish Westminster intentions we should expect at least 10 extra SNP seats, 6 from LibDem and 4 from Labour (Ochil, Dundee, Falkirk, Ayr N) This makes it even more difficult for Labour or even a LibLab coallition.

  26. CameronB Brodie says:

    Bumpped into another couple of SLabour drones coming out of their Edinburgh HQ, the other day. They were loading leaflets into the boot of a car and burst into squealing giggles when I informed them “they were going to lose, badly”. A brief exchange between themselves enabled me to make their accents out to be expensively educated Home Counties. I don’t mean to come across as hostile to foreigners, but is SLabour not taking this outsourcing malarkey a little too far?

  27. CameronB Brodie says:

    Sorry, wrong thread. 🙂

  28. Indy_Scot says:

    It does not matter what angle you look at this from, if Scotland votes ‘no’ in September, then Scotland is finished in every respect.

    The only way Scotland can save itself, is by voting Yes.

  29. RogueCoder says:

    Rev Stu clearly angling for Peter Snow’s old job, and probably Prof Curtice’s current one 🙂

    Insightful analysis once again, Rev. With 11 months remaining to the GE, something pretty catastrophic would have to happen to the Tories to allow Milliband into number 10 – and catastrophes don’t include a Yes vote. As noted previously, Cameron has been smart enough to make sure that all of the blame for a Yes outcome will fall squarely on Darling, Carmichael, Alexander, and SLAB.

    Barring another round of spectacular Tory scandals, Dave is walking towards his next premiership. The only questions are whether he’ll have a deputy, and will it be Clegg or Farage?

  30. Lesley-Anne says:

    While I watched the BBC and SKY scratch their heads throughout Thursday night over what was happening in the English council elections one thing became clear to me. At least the BBC, via Jeremy Vine, recognised the simplest of glaringly obvious facts, Scotland might just vote YES in September.

    I only mention this because both BBC and SKY did the usual of using the voting percentages from the council elections to predict next year’s General Election. At this point both BBC and SKY had Labour winning but being 4 seats short of an overall majority on 322 with the Tories on 256, I think and the Lib Dems on 59, if memory serves me right. Wit SKY this is as far as you got, however on the BBC good old Mr Vine went further. He showed the results if Scotland voted YES. These figures showed Labour still the biggest party but being 19 seats short of an overall majority.

    I wonder if tomorrow night’s extravaganzas on BBC and SKY will see yet more predictions of 2015 General Election results using the Euro results. To be honest it wouldn’t surprise me.

  31. Thepnr says:

    @Andrew Sinclair

    The way I’m thinking is that after a Yes vote which let’s face it is a monumental and unprecedented event the Government will have to go to the electorate to ask who should represent them in the negotiations.

    Scottish MP’s (MSP’s) will be elected at the same time but possibly no longer seen as part of a UK party therefore the new government in rUK will be formed only by one of those parties that represent rUK.

    Basically just both setting out their stall, seems to be some sense in this view to me at least.

  32. Giving Goose says:

    UKIP Scottish policy from a few years back, be afraid of all the parties now adopting this;
    http://news.stv.tv/politics/241271-ukip-launch-their-manifesto/

  33. X_Sticks says:

    Sorry O/T (as usual, grovelling apology Rev)

    Just a reminder that Independence Live will be broadcasting Artist Taxi Driver from Glasgow (sorry, not sure where exactly) at 19:00 tonight Live stream here:

    http://tinyurl.com/loc9wam

    You can also donate to Thistle and Independence Live here:

    http://tinyurl.com/olt48ue

    They’ve almost raised 1/3 of their 3k, please lend your support for these guys they’re doing a sterling job bringing us all the indy debates and Friends of Wings events.

  34. Gavin Alexander says:

    Whichever way it goes in the next UK election, one thing is for sure: the Tories WILL be in power for 57-60%* of the rest of our lives.

    (*Based on what happened between 1945 and the 2015 election).

  35. Gray says:

    @Croompenstein

    Re Freedom City, I quite like Dunsubsidising.

  36. galamcennalath says:

    Andrew Sinclair says:
    Could we see a snap election in 2014? Who would win then? I suspect this would favour the Tories.

    I think we all underestimate the shit storm starting on the 19th if it’s a Yes win! Westminster wasn’t prepared for the referendum, they won’t be prepared for that. Constitutional crisis, possible financial crisis resignation, snap election.

    Or … rUK National Coalition at a time of emergency?

    Juteman says:
    If there is a No vote, Cameron will be hailed as the saviour of the union, making a UK Tory victory even more likely.

    Good point. On top of Stu’s stuff, it makes a Tory win, or coalition seem certain!

  37. Ravelin says:

    O/T on BT watch duty today I can confirm that they did indeed turn up at 10am in Kemnay. Obviously didn’t know the football tournament was on as they were double parked in the bowling club car park whilst they had a 10min meeting. I counted 10 of them, all looked middle aged and middle class (not that I can fault them for that as I probably fall in those categories too). They all then disappeared and must have been leafleting as there were two leaflets when I got home.

  38. Luigi says:

    There’s also the small matter of the BritNat press, who are gearing up to slaughter Milliband and his cronies, after they help secure a NO vote in September of course.

    Should a tragedy of a NO vote occur, there will be only one winner:

    Scotland votes YES – Tory minority/coalition in 2015
    Scotland votes NO – Tory landslide in 2015

    There is absolutely no other possibility.

    Labour are stuffed either way. Still, as long as the feeble fifty keep their bums on their seats in 2015, history indicates they won’t be that bothered.

  39. heedtracker says:

    69% trusted Cameron and George Osborne more to handle the economy than Miliband and Ed Balls.

    What a legacy from the Blair/Brown/Flipper travesty. And we have to listen to the Flipper projectfearing it with his idiot side kick Bliar McDougal, plus Crash Gordon’s important intervention routine. You really couldn’t invent a bigger farce than bettertogether.

  40. Croompenstein says:

    @Gray – Dunsubsidising – nice one.. how about..Dunbeinfucked

  41. Democracy Reborn says:

    See Wee Ginger Dug’s post today on Labour:-

    “Labour was the workers’ party, and the Tories were the bosses’ party. Then Labour became the party of managing workers’ expectations, and the workers largely put up with that. But then Tony Blair & Gordon Brown happened, and Labour became the party of explaining to the workers why the bosses are right.”

    Class.

  42. Jimmybeardy says:

    I hope the heavy focus on this immigration vs anti-immigration and UKIP stuff comes to an end soon.

    And i hope the official YES camp and SNP start to strongly make the case that a NO vote is a vote for the death of Scotland, a vote for utter Orwellian enslavement to a corrupt group of ruling class elite who have systematically destroyed the history of Scotland and the will of its righteous people as they insidiously assimilate it into their list of conquests.

  43. Jimmybeardy says:

    Oh by the way, with “i hope the heavy focus” i meant in the wider scheme of Scottish news in general.
    Great work as ever Stu.

  44. Croompenstein says:

    Watching the angry taxi driver on indy live..holy f are they going to privatise the student loans!! We have seriously got to get to f*ck out of this!

  45. Paul says:

    O/T a wee bit see Galloways Respect mob got trounced at the council elections. I wonder if that means we will see more or less of the clown you would think he would have enough to do trying to keep Respect together or is he going to do a bale out from them and prostitute his self to another party in the hope that they can bare his nonsense.

  46. Davy says:

    Good analysis Stu, it certainly shows the craphouse thats ahead of us if their was a No vote, but I firmly believe that Scotland will be well aware of this and will vote YES.

    Because their is nothing to stop a Westminster tory government for the next 18 years again, especially if they are backed by the lib-dems and Ukip. I went through that hell with Thatcher & Major I certainly would not wish it on anyone else.

    keep up the good work.

  47. Horseboy says:

    Help!
    Looking for the AYE RIGHT flyers, A6 size.

    At least 1000+ or even 10,000 to handout with YES newspaper in Aberdeen South, very very very soon!

  48. Dave McEwan Hill says:

    As I have said before I think we may have seen the last UK Labour Government – a prospect which grows with each passing year as its core support gets older and leaves us.

    It is not replacing this with ideological new membership as there is no longer any real ideology to cleave to and I suspect more powerful challenge to Toryism will come from further right. The Tories (with perhaps what’s left of the Libdems)will become the centre and Labour as a radical functioning political unit will fade and die as it has been absorbed into the establishment and the only real difference it has from the Tories is worn out cliches and a different colour of suit.

  49. Calgacus MacAndrews says:

    In Cannes for the Film Festival.

    Having lunch yesterday at a small restaurant in the square of the Suquet (old part of Cannes).

    Waiter, offering menu, says: “Anglais?”

    Me: “Ecossais”.

    Waiter(suddenly very excited): “Ecosse! Independance! Independence!”

    If we don’t vote YES in September, we will look like a nation of total plonkers,
    .

  50. X_Sticks says:

    Horseboy says:

    “Looking for the AYE RIGHT flyers, A6 size.”

    Could do with some too, finished mine today at Yes stall in Aberdeen and will be out delivering papers next week.

  51. caz-m says:

    Lord Ashcroft (Tory), predicts that Labour could win 83 seats from the Tories in 2015 GE. That would give Labour a working majority.

    Lord Ashcroft Polls,

    http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2014/05/conservative-labour-battleground/

  52. BuckieBraes says:

    @Calgacus MacAndrews

    ‘If we don’t vote YES in September, we will look like a nation of total plonkers.’

    ‘Plonkers’ is a bit Only Fools and Horses. If we can find a better word I think your statement forms the basis of the slogan needed to hit home the meaning of a No vote.

  53. handclapping says:

    @BuckieBraes
    But as we will then be just North English, plonkers will be appropriate

  54. Findlay Farquaharson says:

    “If we don’t vote YES in September, we will look like a nation of total plonkers”

    i would expect most nations would not see us as plonkers, most likely think of us as a nation of cowards.

  55. Brian Nicholson says:

    Another point for consideration is that the Northern Ireland parties also enter the equation. If the Conservatives are close to a majority (less than 10), they can also reach out to the Northern Irish unionist parties. I am sure they can find enough carrots to their support. Imagine seeing NI MP’s as ministers at Westminster. The Unionists will love it, and Sinn Fein will be spitting nails.

  56. Croompenstein says:

    Since oor Calgacus is in France..

    Une nation de ventre jaune plonkers

  57. Add to that lot the fact that Milliband ‘looks weird, sounds weird, is weird’ and is wholly unelectable as a UK Prime Minister and the 2015 UK election result is an utter no brainer.

  58. scaredy cat says:

    Sorry O/T

    According to William Hill, the odds of Scotland voting yes in September are better than the odds of Atletico Madrid winning tonight.
    I know nothing about betting or football, but with only a couple of minutes to go, I am hoping for a good omen!

    By the way, is it an open invitation to the Counting House on Friday?

  59. Brian Powell says:

    Horseboy and X sticks, I have Aye Right leaflets.

    Can give you several thousand, but don’t know how to get them to you. Live on the East Coast.

  60. scaredy cat says:

    Noooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

  61. Thepnr says:

    Absolutely open invitation to the Counting House. I still need bums on seats for the bus from Dundee. C’mon treat yourself to a braw night.

  62. Ian Brotherhood says:

    @scaredy-cat –

    Yes, it’s for everyone. Please bring your lad and get him to bring all his friends. It should be every bit as good as last time, only bigger.

    The Sunday Herald is sending someone to cover it, Thistle and IndependenceLive will be livestreaming it, and there’s no telling who else might turn up.

    Please make it along if you can.

  63. scaredy cat says:

    @Thepnr

    Will try to get along then although a bus from Dundee won’t really help me as I’m in Stirling. I’ll try not to talk to strangers this time. Last time I ended up having to hide from some guy who wandered into our wee gathering. He was very persistent!

  64. fairiefromtheearth says:

    Im going to ask all indy supporters to help England out. Buy silver coins and help England due to 20% VAT, the up side the people of iScotland will be holding a precious metal and it would be harder to fekk with our monies. 😉

  65. scaredy cat says:

    @ Ian Brotherhood

    Providing I can get a sitter for my wee one, I’ll be there. I’ll get the big one to round up his buddies if possible.

  66. Les Wilson says:

    Labour are treacherous and they are paying for it now.
    However, as they lean evermore right,to appeal more to middle England,the more their core vote will fragment.

    Basically,they are already third rate in every sense, and
    people know it. They are certainly in no position to govern, they are being torn apart.

  67. Thepnr says:

    @scaredy cat

    I remember your “stalker” he was also mine sweeping nicking others half finished pints 🙂

  68. Ian Brotherhood says:

    @scaredy cat –

    ‘…the big one…’

    Ha! Love it.

    BTW, if anyone does have surplus Aye Right leaflets or cards, please bring them.

    Up in Glasgow on Friday, I had an hour or so to kill, went walkabout, Buchanan St, George Square etc, back to Central. Didn’t see a solitary Yes badge on anyone. No posters, nothing.

  69. caz-m says:

    Roddy Macdonald
    “Add to that lot the fact that Milliband ‘looks weird, sounds weird, is weird’ and is wholly unelectable as a UK Prime Minister and the 2015 UK election result is an utter no brainer”.

    You wont find anyone at Pacific Quay repeat any of those words. As Prof Curtis tried to push it the other morning saying, UKIP would take Tory seats, thus helping Labour win UK election.

    I think BBC Scotland will really try to get the message out that Labour will almost certainly win the 2015 GE.

  70. scaredy cat says:

    @thepnr

    Gross!
    I’ll definitely try to stay in among the wingers this time. Trouble is, I didn’t realise he didn’t belong until he had sat down beside me and made himself comfortable. He didn’t even take the hint when my son told him not to bother me. I think I need a bigger bodyguard 🙂

  71. Croompenstein says:

    @Roddy – Add to that lot the fact that Milliband ‘looks weird, sounds weird, is weird’ and is wholly unelectable as a UK Prime Minister and the 2015 UK election result is an utter no brainer

    Are you quoting his brother David? 😀

  72. X_Sticks says:

    @Brian Powell & Horseboy

    Are you on twitter? I can DM (first preference) you there with contact – or failing that I can post email on off topic.

    I can probably arrange to collect.

  73. Kev says:

    O/T But it looks like Falkirk Council has pulled the Vote no borders adverts in their Leisure Centre cinema after complaints from the public:

    http://www.snp-falkirk.org/new/2014/05/24/victory-for-snp-as-falkirk-council-pulls-no-campaign-adverts/

  74. Robert Bryce says:

    Chic McGregor

    Interesting take with regards to reneging on the Edinburgh agreement.

    My wife completed a poll online (Via Valued opinions)on Wednesday evening. There was no indication who the poll was for but she was asked the indy question to which she answered yes.

    She was then disturbingly asked that should WM choose to ignore the result would she support a unilateral declaration of independence?

    Who would ask that question and for what reason?

  75. Ian Brotherhood says:

    Marcia should be along any minute with the Sunday Herald cover…

  76. cearc says:

    ‘Add to that lot the fact that Milliband ‘looks weird, sounds weird, is weird’ and is wholly unelectable.’

    I’m adding to it:-

    He also showed himself to be spineless and totally devoid of any moral conviction with the bacon butty business.

  77. Thepnr says:

    @Kev

    That’s great news. Wish I went to the pictures more often so as I could join in the booing.

  78. Paula Rose says:

    Wow stalkers! Darlings I will so be there, gosh do we really get numpties as well? Oh my word – can’t wait, you lot party – I eat trolls for breakfast!

  79. scaredy cat says:

    @ Paula Rose

    Shame you weren’t there the last time then. I am much too polite for my own good.

  80. cearc says:

    Scaredy Cat,

    I didn’t notice it at the time. Shame you didn’t tell me I would have got rid of him. I’m quite good at that. (actually, even when I don’t want to!)

    Have a good time.

  81. scaredy cat says:

    Aren’t you coming cearc?

  82. TJenny says:

    Scaredy Cat – I don’t think I realised you were getting grief at the last CH night – next time I’m sure if you just give any of us a call – we’ll gather round and help see them off. 🙂

  83. cearc says:

    SC,

    No, I can’t go away at this time of year. Eggs in incubator, chicks under brooder, stroppy mummy birds with offspring.

    Anyone heading for the NW Highlands are welcome to drop by.

  84. scaredy cat says:

    T Jenny

    Thanks. It was more of an irritation than anything else. I was surprised that he kept trying even although I was with my son but I think he was harmless really. I’m sure it was a one off anyway. I don’t expect that to happen again.

  85. scaredy cat says:

    @ cearc

    Aw that’s a real pity. You guys were great!

  86. bunter says:

    Looks like Sunday Herald is going to trash project fears big economic scare next week. Pre emptive strike LOL.

  87. Paula Rose says:

    Hey Monsignor Thepnr – do you have an email for us weird folk to register our desire to visit weegie land – bit bleeding obvious.

  88. Murray McCallum says:

    I like the look of that Sunday Herald front page.

  89. Chic McGregor says:

    @Robert Bryce

    Could be either side, for very different reasons of course. Unlikely to be middle ground folk.

    But I would be very surprised, whatever way the referendum goes, if it did not have a significant effect one way or the other on the Tories’ standing in the polls.

    As to UDI, that is the pro-indy side nuclear option, with equally big repercussions to a reneging on the Edinburgh Agreement by Westminster. It would also require to be mandated by a Scottish GE.

  90. Thepnr says:

    @Paula Rose

    Yeah sure do, anybody wanting to come to Glasgow next Friday can email me here alex [dot] clark269 [at] gmail [dot] com

  91. Ian Brotherhood says:

    A big appeal to anyone east-coastish who wants to make the Glasgow Counting House Friends of WOS night next Friday –

    Thepnr has booked a bus (a very nice one by the sounds of it) and there are spaces left. The man has put up a hefty chunk of his own dosh and it would be criminal to have it anything less than full, so please let him know via the off-topic thread:

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/off-topic/#comment-1495406

    I can’t remember all the pick up points, but the man will fill you in. This is going to be a BIG night. If you want to be there, let him know asap.

    Seriously – decades from now, when Scotland has long been independent and folk are giving it big licks about how ‘involved’ they were, the WOS social nights will be mentioned. No doubt, thousands of pensioners will claim to have been at the Counting House, or at Jollys, like all the bawbags who swear they were at Woodstock.

    Don’t let that happen to you – make sure you’re there for real!

  92. caz-m says:

    The plot thickens in BaconButtyGate.

    I think the bacon sandwich was just refusing to go into the mouth of a serial bullshitter.

  93. Chic McGregor says:

    @Marcia

    Yep, one for the Kirrie Aye TV window loop.

  94. Croompenstein says:

    @Marcia – That’s an excellent front page why it’s even better than the official Yes papers

  95. Big Jock says:

    Or two nations?The north British cowards and the Scots who are left in a foreign country after a no vote!I don’t class North Britons as Scots!

  96. Thepnr says:

    @Chic McGregor

    Not fancy a night out at CH2? Not far to Brechin from Kirrie, would love to meet you.

  97. liz says:

    WOW – the Sunday herald front page looks amazing. Will def buy tomorrow, we need to get the message out to people who do not use the net.

    A friend of mine who looked at me as if I was mad last year when I said don’t trust the MSM specifically the BBC has now realised the BBC is a member of CBI and that Paxman lied on a recent BBC prog about WW1 and are moving towards Yes.

    Once trust is lost it will not be regained.

  98. Dave McEwan Hill says:

    I buy two Sunday Heralds. One goes to my sister in London and one goes into our YES shop and gets read all week.
    It is a pity that some of them will go back unsold for pulping. I’d happily take them off their hands and deliver them all round Dunoon.

  99. Chic McGregor says:

    Thepnr
    CH2 in Brechin?

    I thought CH2 was the one in Broughty?

    Or is it a regional designation?

  100. Croompenstein says:

    @Nana – What is especially galling about his revelations is that he assumed that the truth would eventually come out, and that no lie could live forever. Apparently, Westminster can keep lies alive for decades, even centuries, and it is only through tenacious research that the truth can be found, often at personal risk to the whistleblower

    I think it will break our hearts to find out how much we have been abused in this ‘union’. But let’s steel ourselves and find out by getting the truth out and let yes prevail it’s our only chance.

    btw my own Nana is 96 years young today and will be voting yes, she signed the covenant and has vowed to be around for independence day.

  101. Nana Smith says:

    @Croopenstein

    I too wonder what other lies we’ve been told.

    Wow,well done to your Nana.Hope to live to that age in a free Scotland.

  102. Les Wilson says:

    Well, the Herald front page is intriguing, no long lay tomorrow, up early and go and get my one.

  103. Ian Brotherhood says:

    ‘Vile Cybernat Glasgow Gathering’

    That’s what the Press Release will look like. Mid-week. All of the papers will get it, one way or another. The Sunday Herald already knows, and has expressed interest. Can the others simply ignore it?

    This is their chance to meet us face to face – when they talk about ‘Cybernats’, they’re referring to us, right?

    We all know people who know people in radio/telly/the papers etc etc, so – let them know, by any means, that we’re going to be there next Friday. They’re very welcome to come along. If they want to make themselves known to us, fair enough. If not, nae problem.

    Do we have anything to fear? Has anyone at any of the ‘Friends of WOS’ gigs thus far ever heard any anti-English sentiment being voiced?

    Anyone with an pro-Indy interest must ensure that they have someone there next Friday. LFI? Green? WFI? etc…if journalists are going to be there, and want to speak to someone about such and such a topic, it’s important that we have at least a rough idea of who’s best for them to interview.

    Please, please, don’t bank on other groups doing other, more ‘organised’ stuff. We have to do this NOW and leave the VNBBTUKOKERS in no doubt that they’re onto plums.

    Our great power is that we’re not a ‘group’: nae committees, nae minute-takers, nae high-heid yins, and nae shite. We’re just doing it.

    If you intend to be there (especially if you’re a rep for any specific pro-Indy group) please make yourself known via off-topic:

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/off-topic/#comment-1496402

  104. Paula Rose says:

    http://wingsoverscotland.com/off-topic/

    Is that where people should look Ian?

  105. Thepnr says:

    @Chic

    CH2 is Counting House 2 for the second time we’re taking the Wingers back to glasgow. I’ve booked a bus for Dundee and Angus fowk starting from Brechin. It’s free so a grab a few seats for yourself and your pals, missus, family whatever.

    The uptake hasn’t been what I’d hoped and I really feel we need to make the effort to get visible, this is the ideal opportunity.

  106. Thepnr says:

    Heres my original post.

    Forget any cost now, it is free.

    Regarding Wings night out at the Counting House Fri 30th May I’ve booked a VIP coach from Dundee and Angus which will start in Brechin with stops in Abroath, Dundee then Glasgow. All mod cons, toilet, sound system and 4 DVD screens, so better than the back of a van!

    The approximate timings are leaving Brechin at around 17:00, Arbroath 17:20 and Dundee 17:45, this gets us into Glasgow at George Square at 19:15-19:30ish.

    The bus can take 40 passengers, the price will be £15 return that will cover the whole cost which was £500 and leaves room for a few who may not be able to afford £15 but are keen to come. So all welcome and any shortfall will be taken care of by me.

    Can I just ask that if you would like to come in what will be the most public display by supporters of Wings to Independence so far, then please show your interest by posting how many seats you want over in Off Topic and where you would like picked up from the above towns.

    It will be first come first served and I fully expect to fill all the seats, so please get your names down as soon as. The last thing I want is to have to leave some behind because I was unaware they would be coming. I will regularly post over the next few days how many seats are still available.

    It’s time now I think to take what we know off the internet and into the mainstream, let’s become visible and really take this fight against the MSM right into the open. That is the whole point of these events.

    I believe Ian Brotherhood has a contact in the Sunday Herald who is keen to cover this REAL grassroots event. So lets show the Nob Orders crowd what we are about and that which money just can’t buy. Real belief and real passion for what WE believe in.

    Double page spread the following Sunday or a wee byline? That will be down to us.

  107. Thepnr says:

    One last thing, don’t let any publicity put you off. I’ll admit myself I was a bit hesitant about the first CH night when I heard it would be live streamed.

    There’s nothing to fear, no one will stick a camera in your face, you’ll be really surprised at how relaxed it all is.

    If we’re serious about winning then it’s time to show it. Less than 4 months left we can’y hide in our bedrooms much longer and have to get out there. We talking about our future here, don’t be shy and stand tall instead.

  108. chic mcgregor says:

    Thepnr
    I’ll pass the info on to local yessers tommorow. As to Sheena and I it all depends on whether we still have the dogs. My son in law is an IT manager and is currently in Europe, as he quite often is, and we have their dogs as well as our own. If he is back tommorow and they take the dogs we will possibly be able to come, failing that, one of us might make it. That would probably be Sheena.

  109. The Man in the Jar says:

    In one of those “vote now” polls on msn.com the figures are for the 2015 general election are.

    Tory 20%

    Tory/L Dem 7%

    Lab 11%

    Tory/UKIP 35%

  110. The Man in the Jar says:

    Sorry. just to add the question asked in the msn.com poll (above) was.

    “What will be the most likely result of the 2015 general election?”

  111. Roll_On_2014 says:

    .
    Sunday Herald front page story:

    New ‘milestone’ Treasury scare story doesn’t add up

    The article also includes this PICTURE to zap around your Facebook and Twitter accounts.

    The above picture reminds me of Browns faulty calculator, when he was chancellor, pushed around the web on the run up to the 2010 GE. Sadly that source has long since gone from the web.

  112. Roll_On_2014 says:

    By the way STU here is another graph that fits in with your analysis above.

    State of the UK parties.

    It comes from this article:

    Labour lead on Tories narrows to one point in latest Observer/Opinium poll.

  113. john king says:

    Thepnr says
    “I remember your “stalker” he was also mine sweeping nicking others half finished pints :)”

    Lucky you,
    I left mine on the shelf next to the door when we had the fire alarm and it was gone when we got back in,
    I hadn’t even touched it 🙁

  114. john king says:

    Thepnr says
    “@Kev

    That’s great news. Wish I went to the pictures more often so as I could join in the booing.”

    Last time I remember going to the flicks it was Charlton Heston in The Ten Commandments, (alright alright enough of the auld jokes,besides I didn’t say it was the last time I went, it was just the last time I was sober enough to REMEMBER going) and I left half way through it, not because it was bad I just didn’t know what the word intermission meant, I thought it was an Americanism for, Now leave the cinema, (well I was only a kid) but that’s bugged me ever since, that was two and a tanner I’ll never see again.

    I tried getting in recently
    but apparently they don’t accept jam jars any longer, 🙁
    when did that happen?
    don’t they know there s a war on?

    Paula Rose says
    “Hey Monsignor Thepnr ”
    Eh?
    Monsignor?
    when did that happen ,. last I knew of him was he was with the other alter boys necking the communion wine in the vestry,
    well well well, how time flies. 🙂
    But if you even think of suggesting I kiss his ring_____

    btw
    Cumon guys lets support Thepnr’s efforts here, he’s not asking us to “FILL THE HILL”
    just FILL THE BUS!
    Do we really want the Herald to report a poor turnout?

    Thepnr
    Scardycats from Stirlng, wouldn’t that be doable for the bus to go down to Perth then onto Stirling?

  115. Ken500 says:

    The Fradge non event.

    Scotland voting YES and the SNP holding the balance of power in the 2015 Election. A strong negotiating position.

  116. caz-m says:

    “Sarah Smith on fronting the BBC’s Scotland 2014 show”.

    Another London Labour supporting proud Scot but… Same template as James Naughtie I would think.

    If she reads the comments, she maybe just turn around and jump on the train back home.

    http://www.scotsman.com/what-s-on/tv-radio/sarah-smith-on-fronting-the-bbc-s-scotland-2014-show-1-3421848

  117. caz-m says:

    Ken500

    I have notice that when the BBC, Sky, ITV and Channel 4, they never factor in the Scottish Referendum. Or that Labour will not get their usual forty odd seats in Scotland.

    Scotland disgracefully being ignored again. And so are Wales and Northern Ireland.

    It’s all about England, or to be a bit more precise, the South East of England.

    The rest of us have to sit back and just accept the outcome.

  118. Ken500 says:

    SNP being airbrush out of the equation by London Luvie MSM, at their peril.

    The result is Scotland votes YES and the SNP holds the balance of power at Westminster 2015. A strong, powerful negotiating position.

    UKIP are a blip and are insignificant to the end game. As soon as one UKIP MP is elected, they will be held to account.The end for UKIP. A peerage for the Leader is the end game.

    Vote YES.

  119. Ken500 says:

    Sarah Smith BBC – don’t watch it. The Labour/Unionist parade. Vote it down. No viewers, no programmes.

  120. caz-m says:

    “NHS says YES”

    I think it is worth another mention on Wings.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27555849

    We hope you go from strength to strength.

    The majority of us know you are a world class service. The exception being BBC Scotland and Eleanor Bradford(aided by Jackie Bailey), who deliberately go out of their way and try to destroy you’re good name. They are the bitter minority.

    A YES victory in September will lead to an even better funded Scottish Health Service.

  121. Muscleguy says:

    @ChicMcGregor
    If a Tory-UKIP coalition moved to remove the Scottish parliament Alex Salmond will simply go UDI. There will be no other option. Note your scenario is after a Yes vote. So he will have that mandate. Absent a viable negotiation partner at Westminster we simply go it alone without agreement. That will be the Scottish side’s nuclear option at the negotiations anyway and I expect them to threaten it early, probably over Trident just to make their seriousness about it plain to the rUK side.

  122. David Smith says:

    Hurry up you guys and get CH3 organised; there’s a ghost of a chance I might make it.????
    Anyway, back to the Euro results. When will we find out about Scotland.
    I’d like to see Nigel Frottage denied a Scottish Euro seat but the suspense is killing me!

  123. Donald says:

    O/T – last weekend I bought four Heralds and put them in with the papers people read while having a coffee at local garden centres. I’d guess that took a pro-indy message to easily 40 people in a demographic we’re finding hard to hit. Just an idea but if we all did that…

  124. Roll_On_2014 says:

    Picked this up on the Daily Wail:

    RIP Nick Clegg

    By Des Wilson a founder of the Lib Dems

  125. Bugger (the Panda) says:

    CH2

    The Panda will be therrte.

    Beware

  126. bookie from hell says:

    when will scottish European results be declared?

    Sunday or Monday ?

  127. Bugger (the Panda) says:

    The Panda will be there

    I’ll need to get back on the biologically modified cane juice soon.

  128. Helena Brown says:

    Ed Miliband may have sanctioned the lying from Better Together and if he did he will surely find that the Tories and Ukip will out do him and his party. Those who live by the sword die by the sword as the saying goes, and Labour have yet to experience the full might of the Establishment keeping them out. Just as soon as our referendum is over I foresee electioneering beginning for the GE and he and his party will be toast.

  129. scottish_skier says:

    Labour lead on Tories narrows to one point in latest Observer/Opinium poll.

    Same for the morn’s Yougov for the Sunday Times.

    Con 34%, Lab 35%, LD 9%, UKIP 13%

  130. Brian Powell says:

    Interesting article in Newsnet Scotland on the figures Westminster will release next, where they have included the cost of 180 agencies that they say would need to be duplicated, but the Scottish Government didn’t say this would be need in the White Paper.

    In fact arrangements have been made for sharing already. A totally false costing from Westminster , but I doubt i the media will give the true version.

  131. caz-m says:

    BBC Scotland, Sunday Politics programme, will be bashing NHS Scotland AGAIN. The day after the launch of,

    “NHS says YES”.

    Your group should highlight these constant attacks on you’re service from BBC Scotland.

    You will notice that if the Labour Party or Ed Miliband are having a bad day, then BBC Scotland dig up an NHS Scotland smear story and use it as a deflection.

  132. brian penn says:

    thepnr
    I’ve got Aye right leaflets if you need them, book a seat for me on friday.

  133. cynicalHighlander says:

    An interesting idea.

    nationalcouncilscotland.org

  134. Brian Powell says:

    X Sticks, if you put your e-mail on off topic I will contact you, as soon as I see it.

  135. Robert Louis says:

    So, good old blatantly biased anti Scotland BBC in action yet again this morning. Interview with the actor James MacAvoy, almost half of which was devoted to his strong views on independence, rather than the movie he is currently promoting, and that the interview was supposed to be about.

    He prefaced by saying you shouldn’t believe a word I say, and I don’t want to tell people how to vote (but then proceeded to do just that), …but you shouldn’t vote for independence because anybody tells you that things will be better. He then went on to say, that if you feel that we should be together with other people, and not separate (clasping his hands together for emphasis), then you should vote against it. (My paraphrasing).

    These Hollywood actors, really do live in a different world. Try telling somebody going to a foodbank in Glasgow, Scotland in 2014, to feed his kids, in the largest oil producing nation in Europe, that he shouldn’t believe things can be better with Scotland running its own affairs, instead of by a corrupt undemocratic parliament in England.

    Cringe cringe, cringety cringe. Of course anybody with opposite views will not be interviewed on Andrew Marr.

    More blatant anti independence bias by the state propagandist broadcaster, the BBC.

  136. Robert Louis says:

    SS,

    “Labour lead on Tories narrows to one point in latest Observer/Opinium poll.”

    Except for viewers in Scotland.

  137. Roll_On_2014 says:

    European elections special on HeraldScotland.

    From 10pm, declarations will be made in 31 of Scotland’s 32 local authority areas (the Western Isles count tomorrow for reasons of religious observance), and those votes will be combined to determine which parties will send six Scottish MEPs to the European Parliament.

    That picture should be clear by around midnight, and we’ll be on hand to offer full news and analysis.

  138. caz-m says:

    The Labour Party and Tory Party are going to be driven even more to the right to win back votes from UKIP.

    This will be done without a single thought being given to anyone who is going to be affected by these policies.

    It is power at Westminster at all costs and to hell with the rest of you.

  139. Roll_On_2014 says:

    cynicalHighlander

    An interesting idea.
    nationalcouncilscotland.org

    Ay CH it’s in the Sunday Herald:

    Move to stop politicians ‘carving up’ an Indy Scotland

    A bid to stop an independent Scotland being carved up by politicians, cronies, lobbyists and big business is being launched today by a group of activists, academics and writers.

    The National Council for Scotland project aims to ensure that the widest range of public opinion is reflected in negotiations with the rest of the UK (rUK) in the event of a Yes vote.

    Instead of “a new Scotland based on the cynicism of the old Britain”, with the great and good of politics and commerce pursuing their own agendas, organisers want the whole of Scotland to have a say in redesigning the country.

    Among those supporting today’s launch of the website nationalcouncilscotland.org are authors Alan Bissett and James Robertson, below, broadcaster Lesley Riddoch, actor David Hayman, Electoral Reform Society director Willie Sullivan, and academic Dr Oliver Escobar.

    Aye CH, a good idea. But I have one reservation:

    Willie Sullivan Electoral Reform Society director was/is a staunch NuLabour supporter.

  140. Flower of Scotland says:

    Just spent the last hour reading this great piece from Stu and all the posts! This makes fantastic reading with all the links to back everything up! I’m stressed as it is about the Referendum but god knows how I’d be without the companionship of Wings! You’re doing a great job folks! Feel the blood pressure returning to normal now.

    Don’t think I’ll bother with Gary Robertson today!

  141. Adrian B says:

    Some interesting news from Falkirk about the cinema adverts from better together and vote Nob orders:

    http://www.snp-falkirk.org/new/2014/05/24/victory-for-snp-as-falkirk-council-pulls-no-campaign-adverts/

  142. caz-m says:

    Does anyone have anymore information on a YES March and Rally, organised for 30th August.

    Radio Free Scotland have highlighted it on their website.

    http://radiofreescotland.com/wp/march-and-rally/

  143. dkcm99 says:

    Someone should get on James MacAvoy’s Twitter (assuming he’s got one which I don’t) and remind the prick that there’s a certain country north of England where he will be not be at all welcome, whatever the outcome in September.

  144. Roll_On_2014 says:

    caz-m

    Does anyone have anymore information on a YES March and Rally, organised for 30th August.

    Radio Free Scotland have highlighted it on their website.

    As far as I am aware the organisers said there would not be one this year.

    In fact if you follow the link on Radio Free Scotland’s web site it sends you to the organisers site.

    Dear Supporter Both the 2012 and 2013 rallies have been a fantastic success in bringing together many thousands of independence supporters to demonstrate the strength of the Scottish Independence movement and to hear from some of the best advocates of Scottish independence. But we know the focus this year has got to be on persuading the many undecided voters all over Scotland, crucially in their own communities, and that will call for different types of events.

    We are aware that some people would like to see a similar gathering to 2012/13 this summer and we fully understand the benefits that the previous events brought but for the reasons above we would encourage everyone to engage and support events in their own areas and to keep in touch with YES Scotland for a full list of events and other initiatives that they can support and attend.

    Thank you all for your support in both 2012 and 2013 and here is to a resounding YES result this September.

    Jeff Duncan, Anne McMillan and Allan Hendry March & Rally Organisers

    But if you hear anything different by all means give us a shout.

  145. bookie from hell says:

    big thx roll on

  146. cynicalHighlander says:

    @Roll_On_2014

    All views are required in an open forum as I suspect after a Yes vote Labour as we know it are finished as a political force but they will still be residing here.

  147. Dorothy Devine says:

    Anyone read McKennas blether this morning?

    And has anyone seen the ” Scottish Sunday Express ” headlines , some warning to Holyrood from Washington , not apparent on the website.

    I had to check circulation figures and to my delight, they are plummeting.

  148. heedtracker says:

    @ Robert Louis, here’s the man pulling a Billy Connelly and staying out of the debate, by telling everyone to vote NO. Clowns to the left, jokers to the right.

    http://www.scotsman.com/lifestyle/arts/news/scottish-independence-mcavoy-to-stay-out-of-debate-1-3109699

  149. Robert Louis says:

    I’ve just been having a look at some of the nonsense due to come from Westminster this week, about the allegedly ‘horrendous’ costs of independence. Honestly, it is almost laughable, when you start to look into it. It is like Westminster civil servants sat down one day and said, ‘right, how do we make independence look like being really, really, really expensive…here’s an idea, let’s tell them that independence will need gazillions and gazillions of things paid for, or something, maybe, yeah that’ll do’.

    This new document from Westminster deserves to be rightly ridiculed. It is perhaps the most absurd of all London’s ‘publications’ yet, which are of course being paid for by Scottish taxpayers.

    Do these folks in London really think that people in Scotland won’t check the propagandist rubbish they keep churning out? Yet again, Tory funded ‘project feart’ strikes, whimpers, and gets laughed out of Scotland.

    Utter, utter London unionist Tory clowns.

  150. heedtracker says:

    @ Dorothy Devine, I think this is vote No Guardian lashing out at the independent self determining Scotland the English broadsheets despise yet NOT voting for Farage. We’re going to hell and you’re coming with us because your worse, sort of progressive liberal Guardian rage.

  151. caz-m says:

    I don’t use cinemas and I don’t know James McAvoy, but going on what I have heard, of the Nob Orders insult shown just before you watch a movie and then having to sit back and watch this unionist patsy, I am glad I don’t go near cinemas.

    Stop giving these unionist cinemas you’re well earned cash.
    You are paying them to insult you. A bit like the BBC license fee I suppose.

    I see from a previous comment that Falkirk have stopped showing the Nob Order lies. This should be done throughout Scotland.

  152. Robert Louis says:

    You know whilst thinking about some of the political coverage lately regarding Labour’s poor showing, it just struck me, a NO vote will almost certainly guarantee an outright Tory victory.

    Just imagine, if there is a NO vote, they will be cheering David Cameron for defending the union. They will be playing Butcher Cumberland’s song ‘see the conquering hero comes’ , in triumphant celebration at the defeat of those ‘uppity jocks’. Swiftly followed by a huge resurgance in Tory fortunes a few months later at the Westminster election.

    Anybody who seriously imagines that a NO vote will mean a Labour Government will be elected in Westminster, is seriously deluding themselves. A NO vote will see David Cameron celebrated for months as the Prime minister who ‘saved the union’.

    The opposite is true with a YES vote, in that such a result will be so damaging to David Cameron’s credibility, that Labour might get elected in Westminster. So, really if Labour people in Scotland want a Labour Government in Westminster, they MUST vote YES.

  153. caz-m says:

    Roll_On_2014

    Cheers for that. I will be watching out, as many on Wings will be, for any further info on a Rally.

  154. chic mcgregor says:

    @muscleguy
    Agree except for the mandate. Arguably a mandate for a negotiated independence with Westminster is not the same as one for UDI. The latter has additional factors to consider which the Scottish electorate should have a chance to vote on, say at a Holyrood election. BTW I am pretty sure, given a reneging on the Edinburgh Agreement following a Yes result that an even bigger result would be obtained for indy parties standing on a UDI ticket.

    The opportunity for a UDI mandate might not arise and hands might be forced, but that would leave other options for Westminster which had best be avoided, if possible.

  155. heedtracker says:

    So Scotland votes no, UKOK rewards Cameron with outright Tory victory. In effect, the next 5 years are assured UK Tory rule with SNP Scots.gov in powerless Holyrood or just like now if polls are accurate.

    At least we know what a bettertogether win in Sept will be like, the here and now. Daily Mail, BBC, etc will be happy places to be for another generation.

  156. ronnie anderson says:

    @Thepnr, as I said last week Im up for paying for 2 seats

    for anybody who cant afford the cost.

    Silvertay has donated 2 raffle prizes for CH2, so I,ll

    donate the 2 bus seats.

    Cmon lads & lassies get behind Thepnr book your seats an

    fill the bus, we Weedgie,s dont bit much unless you stand

    on us when we faw doon drunk on the pavement ( watch yer

    ankles ggrrrrr ).

  157. Roll_On_2014 says:

    Dorothy Devine

    And has anyone seen the ” Scottish Sunday Express ” headlines , some warning to Holyrood from Washington , not apparent on the website.

    Aye it’s something to do with iScotland granting asylum to Edward Snowden.

    Will go and have a shower now after going on that site.

  158. Roll_On_2014 says:

    Dorothy Devine

    I had to check circulation figures and to my delight, they are plummeting.

    Can you share… where?

  159. Onwards says:

    It’s a pity that labour wasn’t still in power during the referendum.

    Some people still seem hold out some hope that Scotland could get a better deal, when reality has shown that we will get as few new powers as possible.

  160. chic mcgregor says:

    @Robert Louis
    I agree.

    Save for the rather unthinkable, and hopefully very unlikely, third possibility aforementioned. To reiterate the scenario:

    Scotland votes Yes
    Tory support plummets
    English anger intense
    UKIP raises the ‘Scrap the Scottish Parliament -Save Britain’ flag up the flagpole.
    The English electorate salute it (in the polls)
    Tories do a ‘Save Britain pact with UKIP , possibly having dumped Cameron for Osborne, May or Johnston. Justifying it by saying they had to accept that UKIP stance to do the deal and besides, ‘Don’t the English people have the right to vote on it?’
    Pact polcy very popular in England, win the election.
    Oh fuck!

  161. Robert Louis says:

    chic

    Your scenario regarding UKIP, is a bit far fetched really. Interesting idea though, but UKIP won’t really carry matters to that extent at the General election.

  162. MD says:

    I don’t want to muddy the waters Rev but there is a third person who could be PM next year – whoever manages to displace Cameron as PM. My money is on Theresa May rather than Boris Johnson for this. Worse news for Scotland in either case.

  163. Chic McGregor says:

    @MD
    Yes. Depending on how intense the reaction South of the Brder is to a YES result, Cameron could go.

    IMO David Cameron is, for someone of his background, fairly principled. He has some humanity about him.

    At least compared to the three candidates in waiting, Osborne, May and Johnson. IMV those three are, in different ways, deeply flawed characters. Who knows what they are capable of?

    I’d say Johnson, who is the least serious, would be the least dangerous from a Scottish perspective, but not if Farage is really in charge, as one might suspect in that case.

  164. Chic McGregor says:

    Robert Louis
    “Your scenario regarding UKIP, is a bit far fetched really. Interesting idea though, but UKIP won’t really carry matters to that extent at the General election.!

    The far fetched bit, conceded in post, is in regard to Tory compliance.

    I don’t think it at all far fetched that UKIP might propose that (again). Especially in a scenario where the rUK angry iron is at its hottest following a Yes result.

  165. Jim says:

    Call me a cynic but I think part of this Ashcroft, British establishment poll thing is a ruse to persuade Labour party DK’s in Scotland to vote No in the referendum in the belief that they will get a Labour government next year. Which they manifestly wont get.

  166. John duncanson says:

    Re possible final slogan……..”Vote No, and down we go………”

  167. Chic McGregor says:

    @jim

    Yes of course, the Brit propaganda machine in Scotland will try to sell the idea that Labour are a shoo in.

    The reality is, if there is a No vote, the Tories get in, if there is a Yes vote the Tories may still get in, depending on what they do.

  168. Dorothy Devine says:

    Scottish Daily Express – 8.7 per cent drop = 55,441 to 50,613;

    Scottish Daily Mail – 7.2 per cent drop = 99,304 to 92,177;

    Daily Telegraph – 3.3 per cent drop = 18,270 to 17,669;

    My three favourite droppers!



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